Lake effect snow will continue into the weekend as two more quick moving systems will bring widespread snow to the Upper Great Lakes. High winds are expected across portions of Montana through the weekend. Below normal temperatures will remain in place across much of the southern and eastern U.S., while the western U.S. will experience above normal temperatures. Read More >
As the fall of 2011 and the beginning of the winter of 2011-12 finishes out as one of the driest time periods on record, the question becomes, how will the rest of the winter finish out? Will it continue to be dry, or turn snowy and wet? The time period referred to is the September through December 2011 time period. The September through December 2011 snowfall total was six tenths of an inch, which ranks lowest of all-time. This winter season is now on record for going the longest into a season without totaling an inch of snowfall. The previous record was December 28th of 2006. The total precipitation (rain and snow) for this same time period was 1.80 inches which ranks as the seventh driest of all-time. Comparisons were made to our recent four-month dry stretch by looking back in historical records during similar dry stretches since the late 1800s at Aberdeen. After finding the top driest September through December time periods in snowfall and total precipitation, the rest of the winter and early springs were looked at to determine if the dryness continued. The two sets of climate data looked at were the top least snowfall and top least total precipitation (rain and snow) during the January through April time periods. The top twenty driest January through April periods were utilized.
The snowfall data for the September through December and for the January through April periods showed that the snowfall drought usually continued through the rest of winter as compared to normal. The snowfall data showed that 15 of the 20 seasons researched had below normal snowfall for the January through April time period. Two of the January through April periods had near normal snowfall with only three periods receiving above normal snowfall. Thus, based just on the climate record after a low snowfall September through December time period, 85% of the winters finished out with near or below normal snowfall. Only 15% of the winters transitioned to above normal snowfall for the January through April time period. The average January through April snowfall departure from normal was minus 4.1 inches. Only one winter had above normal snowfall for the entire winter and it was in 1974-75. Only 2.2 inches of snow had fallen from September through December with 47.7 inches of snowfall from January through April. The climate data showed that below normal snowfall usually continued after a dry start and it is very difficult to make up the snowfall deficits occurring in late fall and early winter. The seasonal snowfall departures showed an average departure from normal of minus 15.4 inches.
Average snowfall departures for and after the top 20 driest Sep-Aug time periods |
Sep-Dec Departure -11.2 inches Jan-Apr Departure -4.1 inches Seasonal Snowfall Departure -15.4 inches Normal Sep-Dec Snowfall/14.8 inches Normal Jan-Apr Snowfall 23.6 inches Normal Seasonal Snowfall/38.4 inches |
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Jan-Apr snowfall from normal after the top 20 driest Sep-Dec periods |
3/20 Jan-Apr had Above Normal Snowfall or 15% 2/20 Jan-Apr had Near Normal Snowfall or 10% 15/20 Jan-Apr had Below Normal Snowfall or 75% |
Average Precipitation and Snowfall Departures from Normal for and after the top 20 driest Sept-Dec periods |
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Sep-Dec Precipitation -3.35 inches Sep-Dec Snowfall -6.1 inches Jan-Apr Precipitation -0.27 inch Jan-Apr Snowfall -1.4 inches Seasonal Precipitation Departures -3.59 inches Seasonal Snowfall Departures -4.8 inches |
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Jan-Apr Precipitation and Snowfall from Normal after the top 20 driest Sep-Dec periods Normal Jan-Apr Precipitation/4.03 inches Normal Jan-Apr Snowfall/23.6 inches |
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7/20 Jan-Apr had Above Normal Precipitation and Snowfall or 35% 10/20 Jan-Apr had Below Normal Precipitation and Snowfall or 50% 3/20 Jan-Apr had Near Normal Precipitation and Snowfall or 15% |
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Seasonal Precipitation and Snowfall from Normal for the top 20 driest Sep-Dec periods Normal Seasonal (Sep-Apr) Precipitation/9.46 inches Normal Seasonal (Sep-Apr) Snowfall/38.4 inches |
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0/20 Seasons had Above Normal Seasonal Precipitation or 0% 19/20 Seasons had Below Normal Seasonal Precipitation or 95% 1/20 Seasons had Near Normal Seasonal Precipitation or 5% 5/20 Seasons had Above Normal Seasonal Snowfall or 25% 11/20 Seasons had Below Normal Seasonal Snowfall or 55% 4/20 Seasons had Near Normal Seasonal Snowfall or 20% |