Thunderstorms and Heavy Rains Across Portions of the Central and Eastern US; Heat Expands to Portions of the East

Widespread showers and thunderstorms, some severe, may produce heavy downpours and flash flooding across much of the eastern and central U.S. Dangerous heat will continue in the Pacific Northwest and expand across portions of the East. Deep tropical moisture and associated thunderstorms will bring heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding across portions of Florida into the central Gulf Coast. Read More >

Lake Erie

The reported Lake Erie water temperature is taken at the Buffalo Water Treatment Plant located on Lake Erie at the entrance to the Niagara River. The reading is taken at a depth of 30 feet. This data is unofficial.

Lake Ontario

The reported Lake Ontario water temperature is taken at the Monroe County Water Treatment Plant near Greece, N.Y. The temperatures is measured at the intake pipes about 1500 feet offshore at a approximate depth of 35 feet. The Lake Ontario temperature occasionally may not be representative of the surface temperature due to upwelling. This process, more common during the summer months, brings colder water from the deeper parts of the lake toward the surface near the temperature sensor. The surface water may be significantly warmer. This data is unofficial.

Latest Lake Temperatures

1003 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 The water temperature off Buffalo is 77 degrees.

1003 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 The water temperature off Rochester is 65 degrees.

Monthly Lake Erie Temperatures
January	February	March	April	May	June	July	August	September	October	November	December

Historical Lake Erie Temperatures (Unofficial Normals and Extremes)

The daily lake temperatures for Lake Erie off Buffalo and for Lake Ontario off Rochester are included in the Nearshore Marine Forecast.

Click the link for previous versions of the Nearshore Marine Forecast.

NearShore Marine Forecast

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FZUS51 KBUF 152004
NSHBUF

Nearshore Marine Forecast
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
403 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

For waters within five nautical miles of shore

Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest
1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of
the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.

LEZ020-160300-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
403 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.TONIGHT...Southwest winds less than 10 knots. Mainly clear.
.WEDNESDAY...South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A
chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Southwest winds 10 knots or less. A chance of
showers and thunderstorms.
.THURSDAY...Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance
of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely
with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north.
Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the evening,
then a chance of showers overnight.
.FRIDAY...North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable.
Becoming mainly clear.
.SATURDAY...South winds less than 10 knots. A chance of showers
Saturday night.
.SUNDAY...Northwest winds less than 10 knots. A chance of showers
during the day.

Winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms.

The water temperature off Buffalo is 77 degrees.

$$

LOZ030-160300-
Lower Niagara River-
403 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.TONIGHT...South winds less than 10 knots. Mainly clear.
.WEDNESDAY...Light and variable winds becoming southwest 5 to
10 knots. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
.THURSDAY...Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance
of showers in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north.
Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the evening,
then a chance of showers overnight.
.FRIDAY...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and
variable. Becoming mainly clear.
.SATURDAY...Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A
chance of showers Saturday night.
.SUNDAY...Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming north. A
chance of showers during the day.

Winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms.

$$

LEZ040-041-160300-
Buffalo to Ripley along Lake Erie-
403 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.TONIGHT...Southwest winds less than 10 knots. Mainly clear.
Waves 1 foot or less.
.WEDNESDAY...South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A
chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves
1 foot or less.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest.
Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or
less.
.THURSDAY...Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers
likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet building
to 2 to 4 feet.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north.
Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the evening,
then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding
to 1 to 3 feet.
.FRIDAY...Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast.
Becoming mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
.SATURDAY...South winds 10 knots or less. Showers likely with a
chance of thunderstorms Saturday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
.SUNDAY...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast.
Showers likely during the day. Waves 2 feet or less.

Winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms.

$$

LOZ042-160300-
Niagara River to Hamlin Beach along Lake Ontario-
403 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.TONIGHT...East winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mainly
clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
.WEDNESDAY...Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming east. A
chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then a
chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
.THURSDAY...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. A
chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely with a
chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 10 to
15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the
evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
.FRIDAY...Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast.
Becoming mainly clear. Waves 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 2 feet or
less.
.SATURDAY...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A
chance of showers Saturday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
.SUNDAY...Northwest winds around 10 knots becoming north. A
chance of showers during the day. Waves 2 feet or less.

Winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms.

$$

LOZ043-044-160300-
Hamlin Beach to Mexico Bay along Lake Ontario
including Irondequoit Bay-
403 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.TONIGHT...East winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mainly
clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
.WEDNESDAY...South winds 10 knots or less becoming east. A chance
of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or
less.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
.THURSDAY...Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance
of showers in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to
20 knots. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the
evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet
building to 2 to 4 feet.
.FRIDAY...North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest less than
10 knots. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to
2 feet or less.
.SATURDAY...South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers
Saturday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
.SUNDAY...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. A chance
of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.

Winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms.

The water temperature off Rochester is 65 degrees.

$$

LOZ045-160300-
Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River along Lake Ontario-
403 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.TONIGHT...Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south.
Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
.WEDNESDAY...South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Sunny.
Waves 1 foot or less.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
.THURSDAY...South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A
chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then showers
likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves
2 feet or less.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north.
Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the evening,
then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to
2 to 4 feet.
.FRIDAY...North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south less than
10 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or
less.
.SATURDAY...South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers
Saturday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
.SUNDAY...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. A chance
of showers during the day. Waves 1 foot or less.

Winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms.

$$

Radar