Severe Weather and Heavy Rain for the Plains and Mid-Atlantic; Building Heat in the West

Severe thunderstorms will remain possible in the Mid-Atlantic through Tuesday. Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain will also be possible in the central/southern Plains on Tuesday and Wednesday. Hazardous heat will linger across the southern U.S. and build across the West through mid-week. Hot and dry weather will create Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions in the Four Corners Region. Read More >

NWS Buffalo Mesoscale Model Page

Below you will find a link to the mesoscale model currently being run at the NWS office in Buffalo, NY. The model is used in a research and operational mode to aid in the prediction of small (or meso) scale weather events that are common to our area. These include, but are not limited to, conditions such as lake effect snow storms, lake and land breezes and orographic enhancement. For those who are used to getting the MM5 model, it has been replaced by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Let us know your comments and suggestions.

The WRF model allows for many changes in model parameters. With computational power increasing, the number of times the WRF model can be run before the next 6 hour NCEP model data is available is also increasing.
We will be making slight changes in these model parameters and running the model as much as we can in this time window. The linking to specific models may be confusing as we bring this up to speed.

Notice: Because of technical glitches with version 3 of the WRF, ALL runs will only have 1 hour and 3 hour precipitation forecasts (QPF).

WRF (NAM -- no cumulus)
WRF (NAM -- Kain-Fritsch)
WRF (NAM -- Betts-Miller-Janjic)