Severe Weather and Heavy Rainfall in the Midwest and Desert Southwest; Mid-Summer Heat Continues

Severe thunderstorm and heavy rainfall are possible in the Midwest into the Central Appalachians and the Desert Southwest early this week. Storms are also expected in parts of the northern Plains today. Fire weather and air quality concerns will persist across portions of the West. Mid-summer heat will continue across much of the CONUS this week, especially in the the south-central High Plains. Read More >

NWS Buffalo Mesoscale Model Page

Below you will find a link to the mesoscale model currently being run at the NWS office in Buffalo, NY. The model is used in a research and operational mode to aid in the prediction of small (or meso) scale weather events that are common to our area. These include, but are not limited to, conditions such as lake effect snow storms, lake and land breezes and orographic enhancement. For those who are used to getting the MM5 model, it has been replaced by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Let us know your comments and suggestions.

The WRF model allows for many changes in model parameters. With computational power increasing, the number of times the WRF model can be run before the next 6 hour NCEP model data is available is also increasing.
We will be making slight changes in these model parameters and running the model as much as we can in this time window. The linking to specific models may be confusing as we bring this up to speed.

Notice: Because of technical glitches with version 3 of the WRF, ALL runs will only have 1 hour and 3 hour precipitation forecasts (QPF).

WRF (NAM -- no cumulus)
WRF (NAM -- Kain-Fritsch)
WRF (NAM -- Betts-Miller-Janjic)