Excessive Rainfall Potential for the Southeast; Heat Expands for Center of the Nation; Critical Fire Weather for Pacific Northwest

Flash flooding threatens areas from the Tennessee Valley to the Carolinas as storms repeat along a stalled front. Monsoonal storms may trigger flooding in the Southwest. Dangerous heat expands across the Desert Southwest, Plains, mid-Mississippi Valley and Southern Tier. Critical fire weather for interior Pacific Northwest. Cooler, drier air brings brief relief to the Great Lakes and Northeast. Read More >

3 Day Outlook

Beach Outlook

Next Round for Severe T-storms

El Niño

Daily Decision Support Briefing- City of Buffalo

While much of this weekend will be dry, there will be increasing chances for showers and t-storms this weekend and into the beginning of next week. Additionally, while air temperatures will be nearly the same there will day to day increase in humidity.

While a few showers and t-storms will dot this weekend, the bigger threat will come Monday for t-storms. More widespread convection Monday and Monday night blossoming ahead of a cold front could bring damaging winds, large hail and heavy downpours of rain.

There is an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño during October-December that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950. Even the strongest El Niño events do not lead to the typical impact everywhere, but stronger events can more significantly tilt the odds in favor of expected outcomes.