National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Heat Across the Center of the Nation; Severe Thunderstorms Across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley

Heat expands across the Desert Southwest, Plains, Mississippi Valley and Midwest into Monday. Fire weather concerns continue for portions of the Intermountain West. Active monsoonal moisture fuels thunderstorms over the Southwest with possible flash flooding. Tropical cyclone Fausto in the Pacific, should weaken as it approaches Hawaii; Dangerous surf, swells and rip currents are expected. Read More >

 

Mainly dry tonight with mild overnight lows, light winds and variably cloudy skies. It will be seasonably warm Monday with scattered afternoon showers and storms developing inland from the lakes.
Low pressure passing across the Ohio Valley will introduce showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening, where a few storms may become severe. Main threats are damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall.
There is an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño during October-December that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950. Even the strongest El Niño events do not lead to the typical impact everywhere, but stronger events can more significantly tilt the odds in favor of expected outcomes.