National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
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Last Map Update: Sat, Jul 4, 2026 at 2:48:28 pm MDT

The forecast for the 4th of July is favorable for outdoor festivities with slightly above average temperatures and dry conditions.
Temperatures for the holiday weekend will be slightly above average for Independence Day before becoming much above average Sunday. Chances (20-50%) for showers and thunderstorms increase Sunday afternoon and evening. Severe storms are not expected.
There is a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening over portions of Montana. Strong wind gusts are the primary threat. Any thunderstorm is capable of producing small hail.
Confidence is increasing for a weather pattern that supports hot temperatures by early next week. The 8-14 day temperature outlook shows a 60-70% chance of above normal temperatures in our region from July 11 to 17. Triple digit heat is possible.

 

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