National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Snow Amount Potential
Experimental -
 
Expected Snowfall - Official NWS Forecast
Point Range
Official NWS Forecast Snow Totals
What's this?
High End Amount
1 in 10 Chance (10%) of Higher Snowfall

Maximum Potential Snow Accumulation
What's this?
Low End Amount
9 in 10 Chance (90%) of Higher Snowfall

Minimum Potential Snow Accumulation
What's this?

Low End Amount - 9 in 10 Chance (90%) of Higher Snowfall

 

This map depicts a reasonable lower-end snowfall amount for the time period shown on the graphic, based on many computer model simulations of possible snowfall totals. This lower amount is an unlikely scenario with a 9 in 10, or 90% chance that more snow will fall, and only a 1 in 10, or 10% chance that less snow will fall. This number can help serve as a lower-end scenario for planning purposes.

Expected Snowfall - Official NWS Forecast

 

This map is the official NWS snowfall forecast in inches during the time period shown on the graphic. This snowfall amount is determined by NWS forecasters to be the most likely outcome based on evaluation of data from computer models, satellite, radar, and other observations.

High End Amount - Only a 1 in 10 Chance (10%) of Higher Snowfall

 

This map depicts a reasonable upper-end snowfall amount for the time period shown on the graphic, based on many computer model simulations of possible snowfall totals. This higher amount is an unlikely scenario, with only a 1 in 10, or 10% chance that more snow will fall, and a 9 in 10, or 90% chance that less snow will fall. This number can help serve as an upper-end scenario for planning purposes.

 
The purpose of these experimental probabilistic snowfall products is to provide customers and partners a range of snowfall possibilities, in complement to existing NWS deterministic snowfall graphics, to better communicate forecast uncertainties during winter weather events. For more information visit this project's Product/Service Description Document, and please provide us your feedback here.
Percent Chance That Snow Amounts Will Be Greater Than...
Experimental -
 
What's this?

Percent Chance That Snow Amounts Will Be Greater Than

 

This series of maps shows the probability (that is, the likelihood) that snowfall will equal or exceed specific amounts during the time period shown on the graphic. These forecasts are based on many computer model simulations of possible snowfall totals.

Hover over thumbnails below to view larger image.
>=0.1"
>=0.1"
>=1"
>=1"
>=2"
>=2"
>=4"
>=4"
>=6"
>=6"
>=8"
>=8"
>=12"
>=12"
>=18"
>=18"
Probability Graphic

Snowfall Totals by Location
Experimental -
 
What's this?

Snowfall Totals by Location

 

These tables show the snowfall forecast for individual locations. The tables provide the same information as the maps on this web page, just shown in a different way. The "Exceedance" option shows the chance that snow will exceed a certain threshold. The "Range" option shows the likelihood of snowfall being within a certain range. All of these values are valid for the same time period as depicted on the graphics.

County:
 
Switch to: Range Exceedance
Ice Accumulation Potential
 
Expected Ice Accumulation - Official NWS Forecast
Most Likely Ice Accumulation

What's this?

Most Likely Ice Accumulation

Represents our official ice forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The ice accumulation amounts are provided in ranges.

Other Snow/Ice Information
Storm Track Reported Snow/Ice Totals
Storm Total Ice Graphic
Last 72 hours of snow fall
What's this? What's this?
12-hr snow accumulation forecast

Low Tracks Graphic

The graphic depicts the forecast location of significant surface lows impacting the 48 contiguous United States in 12 hour increments out to 72 hours into the future.

The low position and track forecast by NCEP WPC meteorologist is in white. Each low position is accompanied by a lead time (Eastern Time). The circles around each low represents a 75% probability the observed low will be located with the circle. Note: The probability is derived using previous season's verification data. For reference, existing surface lows are depicted with a red marker without yellow circles.

Precipitation Onset

Most likely time of winter precipitation onset (snow, sleet, freezing rain). Rain is not included here. This information is provided when we issue a Warning or Advisory for expected snow or ice accumulation; typically six to 24 hours in advance. Times are only given for places that are under a Warning or Advisory. They will be blank in areas outside Warnings or Advisories.

Reported

As snow and/or ice reports come into the NWS (you can email reports to us here. or Tweet to @NWSCLE), we will pass them on here. With the map linked here, and the supporting reports in the Public Information Statement, you can keep tabs on how much has fallen.

 

Cleveland, OH Products
       


886
WWUS41 KCLE 221520
WSWCLE

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1020 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

OHZ010-011-013-014-017>023-027>033-036-037-PAZ003-221630-
/O.CAN.KCLE.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-180222T1800Z/
Lorain-Cuyahoga-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-
Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-
Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-
Including the cities of Lorain, Cleveland, Chardon, Jefferson,
Findlay, Tiffin, Norwalk, Medina, Akron, Ravenna, Warren,
Upper Sandusky, Bucyrus, Mansfield, Ashland, Wooster, Canton,
Youngstown, Marion, Mount Gilead, and Meadville
1020 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Temperatures are quickly rising above freezing across most of the
advisory area this morning. Any additional precipitation across
northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania will likely be either
rain or wet snow, with little additional threat for freezing rain.
Therefore, the Winter Weather Advisory has been cancelled.
Untreated roadways, especially elevated surfaces, across northeast
Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania may be slippery over the next few
hours until the precipitation ends by early afternoon, but
widespread roadway impacts should be minimal for the rest of the
day.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://www.weather.gov/cle



000
NOUS41 KCLE 230233
PNSCLE
OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-231430-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
930 PM EST THU FEB 22 2018

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL SNOWFALL OBSERVATIONS FROM OUR REGION.
APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...
SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE
ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/CLEVELAND

**********************12 HOUR SNOWFALL**********************

LOCATION 12 HOUR TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

OHIO

...ASHTABULA COUNTY...
NORTH KINGSVILLE 1.3 700 PM 2/22 SNOW SPOTTER
CONNEAUT 0.5 700 PM 2/22 SNOW SPOTTER
LENOX 0.5 700 PM 2/22 SNOW SPOTTER

...GEAUGA COUNTY...
MONTVILLE 1.0 700 PM 2/22 SNOW SPOTTER

PENNSYLVANIA

...CRAWFORD COUNTY...
CAMBRIDGE SPRINGS 1.6 700 PM 2/22 SNOW SPOTTER

...ERIE COUNTY...
ERIE 2.4 700 PM 2/22 SNOW SPOTTER
NORTH EAST 2.0 700 PM 2/22 SNOW SPOTTER
ERI AIRPORT 1.3 700 PM 2/22 SNOW SPOTTER
UNION CITY 1.2 700 PM 2/22 SNOW SPOTTER
ERIE 5SE 0.5 700 PM 2/22 SNOW SPOTTER
HARBORCREEK TWP 0.5 700 PM 2/22 SNOW SPOTTER


***********************SNOW ON GROUND***********************

LOCATION SNOW TIME/DATE COMMENTS
ON GROUND OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

OHIO

...ASHTABULA COUNTY...
CONNEAUT T 700 PM 2/22 SNOW SPOTTER
NORTH KINGSVILLE T 700 PM 2/22 SNOW SPOTTER

PENNSYLVANIA

...CRAWFORD COUNTY...
CAMBRIDGE SPRINGS 1.0 700 PM 2/22 SNOW SPOTTER

...ERIE COUNTY...
ERIE 2.0 700 PM 2/22 SNOW SPOTTER
NORTH EAST 1.0 700 PM 2/22 SNOW SPOTTER
ERI AIRPORT 1.0 700 PM 2/22 SNOW SPOTTER

$$

THOMPSON

222
FLUS41 KCLE 230821
HWOCLE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
321 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027-028-089-PAZ001>003-240830-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-
Wyandot-Crawford-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
321 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Rain is expected to move into the local area today and rainfall
amounts of up to 0.20 inch is expected. Some rises in rivers and
streams is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Rain is expected to again spread across the area Saturday into
Sunday. This storm system has a better chance for producing adequate
rainfall to cause problems on rivers and streams. Be sure to monitor
the latest forecasts for flooding potential.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

OHZ029>033-036>038-047-240830-
Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
321 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio and
northeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Rain is expected to move into the local area today and rainfall
amounts of up to 0.50 inch is expected. Some rises in rivers and
streams is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Rain is expected to spread across the area again Saturday into
Sunday. Rainfall amounts around 1 inch are expected through Sunday,
with locally higher amounts possible where heavier rainfall persists.
Any additional rainfall will runoff and affect the rivers and
streams across the area, likely prolonging and possibly worsening any
flooding that may occur.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-240830-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
321 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$



000
FXUS61 KCLE 230827
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
327 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move northeast across the northern Great
Lakes today. A warm front extending from the low will move
northeast of the area followed by a cold front by Saturday
morning. The front will become nearly stationary over the local
area and then become a warm front as yet another low pressure
system moves northeast through the western Great Lakes Saturday
and Sunday. A cold front will sweep east across the area Sunday.
High pressure will build east across the Ohio Valley Monday and
Monday night and to the Carolina coast by Tuesday night. A warm
front will lift north across the area Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Yet another round of rain will move into the local area today as low
pressure moves northeast into the northern Great Lakes. Temperatures
have warmed above freezing across the forecast area this morning so
there is no threat for any freezing precipitation. Rainfall
expected today is expected to be between 0.40" and 0.60" across the
southern tier counties and 0.10" to 0.20" in the north. A look at 3
hour flood guidance shows the local area should be able to handle
the rainfall expected today so will not issue any flood watches at
this time.

Rain is expected to pull out to the east this afternoon as high
pressure begins to build into the local area. This should bring a
round of fair weather tonight into tomorrow morning. Another low
pressure system is expected to move northeast into the western Great
Lakes and this feature will bring more rain to the area and warm air
advection. There is the potential for higher storm total QPF with
this storm system and rainfall amounts of up to 0.70" is expected in
the north with up to 1.25" in the south. This system appears it has
a much better chance to cause flooding as soil becomes further
saturated lowering 3 hour flood guidance. Forecast area may need a
flood watch for this system.

Temperatures will continue to remain above normal across the
forecast area as periods of warm air advection affect the local
area; especially today. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected
for Saturday as high pressure builds east across the northern lakes
with cool air advection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Nearly stationary frontal boundary will be located over central Ohio
Saturday night as strong low pressure moves toward the upper Great
Lakes. A very moist airmass will remain in place with the potential
for flooding rains Saturday night into early Sunday. The rain will
end from west to east on Sunday but we will likely be dealing with
flooded rivers into the first half of next week. The best chances
for flooding appear to be near and south of a line from Findlay to
Meadville where 1 to 2 inches of rainfall will be possible. A flood
watch will likely be needed for Saturday afternoon through Sunday
morning and may be issued later today or Saturday morning.

High pressure is expected to take control of the region late Sunday
night and continue through Monday night. This will allow the region
to begin drying out.

Sunday will be a breezy warm day with highs in the 50s to near 60.
SLightly cooler on Monday but temperatures will be above seasonal
averages. Highs Monday afternoon should reach the mid 40s to around
50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will move off the Middle Atlantic Coast on Tuesday.
This will allow the next area of low pressure to move toward the
region Wednesday into Thursday. Models are actually in decent
agreement with some rain chances returning Wednesday afternoon and
then gradually increasing into Thursday.

Temperatures will continue to be above seasonal averages. Highs
Tuesday and Wednesday should be in the lower to mid 50s. Slightly
cooler with the increased cloud cover and rain potential on
Wednesday with highs within a couple degrees of 50.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Widespread IFR conditions will prevail through the forecast
period as another area of rain will move northeast along a
stationary front. Temperatures are still in the middle 30s
across the area and not expecting any freezing rain at this
time. Rainfall could be moderate at times this morning as it
moves into the region. Expecting rain to gradually taper off
from west to east across the area late this morning into the
early afternoon. Lingering IFR ceilings expected into tonight.
Winds will be around 10 knots most of the area but increasing to
15 to 25 knots at Erie.

OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeast winds this morning will gradually shift to the south this
afternoon. Winds should become southwest in the wake of a frontal
boundary by this evening. High pressure tracks eastward across
Ontario which will keep a frontal boundary south near the Ohio River
Valley for tonight. Low pressure will then deepen as it moves from
the Central Plains into the upper Great Lakes Saturday into Sunday.
Northeasterly winds will once again increase to at least 15 to 20
knots Saturday afternoon and continue into early Sunday morning. As
a cold front moves toward the lake winds will shift to the south and
then southwest. The southwesterly winds will increase significantly
in the wake of the occluded frontal boundary. Expect winds to reach
at least 30 knots Sunday afternoon. Cant completely rule out low end
gales. Winds remain southwest Sunday night into Monday but will
gradually decrease as high pressure increases its influence.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lombardy
NEAR TERM...Lombardy
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...Mullen
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...Mullen


521
WWUS81 KCLE 222252
SPSCLE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
552 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

OHZ009>014-019>023-028>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-230100-
Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Huron-Medina-
Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-
Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Sandusky, Lorain, Cleveland, Mentor,
Chardon, Jefferson, Norwalk, Medina, Akron, Ravenna, Warren,
Bucyrus, Mansfield, Ashland, Wooster, Canton, Youngstown, Marion,
Mount Gilead, Millersburg, Mount Vernon, Ashtabula, Erie,
Edinboro, and Meadville
552 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

Areas of fog are expected this evening. Conditions will be highly
variable but some locations could see visibilities less than a
half mile at times. Conditions should slowly improve overnight.

$$


000
NWUS51 KCLE 230130
LSRCLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
830 PM EST THU FEB 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     SNOW             NORTH EAST              42.22N  79.85W
02/22/2018  M2.0 INCH        ERIE               PA   SNOW SPOTTER

            12 HOUR SNOWFALL.


&&

$$

THOMPSON

 

Useful Winter Weather Information
WINTER SAFETY HOW TO MEASURE SNOW sNOW cLIMATOLOGY (30-yr avg) Past Seasons (1998-)
Long-Range Forecast
 
Days 4-5 Forecast Precipitation Days 6-7 Forecast Precipitation
Days 4-5 Precip Days 6-7 Precip
   

Days 6-10

Temperature Precipitation
6-10 day temperature 6-10 day precipitation
   

Days 8-14

TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
8-14 day temperature 8-14 day precipitation
   

Week 3-4

TEMPERATURE

PRECIPITATION

Week 3-4 Temperature Week 3-4 precipitation