Severe Thunderstorms and Heavy Rainfall in the Central and Southern Plains Through Tonight

Severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will continue through tonight across parts of the central and southern Plains. Heavy rain will pose a threat for flash flooding across portions of central and coastal Texas. Thunderstorms may also cause isolated wind damage across the Southeast. Read More >

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870
FXUS63 KDLH 282346
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
646 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers today with some isolated storms possible.
No severe weather is expected.

- A couple of warm days are expected with highs in the mid and
upper 80s. Best chances for these warmer temps will be Friday
and again Monday.

- The next best signal for widespread rainfall is not until
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

Another day into our gradual warmup as we stay under the
influence of an upper level cut-off low. Temps will remain right
on or just above seasonal normal today. A few light, air-mass
showers have popped up. While there is enough surface-based
instability to trigger some isolated rain chances, they lack
shear for any stronger development. Some of the rain is falling
as virga. Severe weather is not expected, but a rumble of
thunder or two can`t be ruled out. Storms should dissipate with
the loss of daytime heating.

On Thursday, the low pushes east into the Great Lakes, with
troughing forming over the Midwest, pushing the better shower
chances to our southernmost counties (20 percent chance) with up
to HW 210 having roughly about 10 percent chance. The bigger
concern will be the push of near surface smoke from Manitoba
fires. Several folks may smell smoke in the morning before the
atmosphere begins to mix out. Therefore continued patchy smoke
in the grids through Friday morning.

On Friday, the aforementioned trough pushes east leaving the
region in meridional flow. As the trough pushes east, a weak
trough axis clips the area, bringing a low-end chance for
isolated storms over the Arrowhead region and northwest
Wisconsin. What will be the bigger story will be the high
temperatures. Increasing 850 temps should help with highs in
the 80s across most areas. In addition, surface high pressure
over the midwest will help increase the pressure gradient across
the region, increasing wind. Coupled with drier air, we are
looking at marginal fire weather concerns on Friday.

As we go into the weekend, shortwave ridging builds into the
upper Midwest, which will help us continue to warm. We
anticipate mostly dry conditions, though isolated, diurnally
driven afternoon showers can`t be ruled out. Monday is still
looking at our warmest day with strong ridging aloft and light
winds pushing highs into the mid to (even) upper 80s.

Tuesday into Wednesday, an upper level trough over western CONUS
is forecast to intensify. Several global models are aligning
better about bringing an initial shortwave across the region as
the trough deepens, significantly increasing our chances for
more widespread precipitation. Models diverge after Wednesday.
But if you are looking for rain, chances are looking good.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 646 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

A few lingering showers out there this evening that may mainly
affect BRD for the next hour or two, though visibility or
ceiling restrictions are not expected. Showers decrease in
coverage tonight, so expect them to be very few and far between
and VFR conditions should prevail. Winds become light and
variable quickly this evening as well, gradually becoming
northwesterly for Thursday. Isolated showers are again possible,
mainly at BRD/HYR in the afternoon. Wildfire smoke from Canada
is expected to advect in from the north through the day and
afternoon. Confidence is not high that visibilities will fall
below VFR since sites closer to the fire are still VFR, but some
periods of brief MVFR visibility can`t be completely ruled out
(~10-15% chance), most likely at INL/HIB.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 417 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

West to southwest winds will start to become more dominant overnight
and through tomorrow. By the afternoon hours there could be a few
gusts to around 25 kts up between Grand Marais and Grand Portage.
However, confidence is not high enough to put out a Small Craft
Advisory at this time. Overnight there is a slightly better signal
for enhanced northwest winds along the North Shore that may warrant
an Advisory. Additionally, smoke from Canadian wildfires may begin
to mix with the marine layer on Thursday and could lead to some
visibility restrictions.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LR
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...Britt

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Severe Thunderstorms and Heavy Rainfall in the Central and Southern Plains Through Tonight

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