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Unsettled Weather in Portions of the Northwest and Southwest

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms may produce heavy rain and localized areas of flash flooding over parts of the Southwest through Tuesday. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds is expected to impact the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin. Read More >

 

 

Northland Drought Summary Page
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Drought Monitor and Outlooks
The Drought Monitor is released weekly on Thursday (using data as of the previous Tuesday) by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, NOAA, and USDA. For more information, including a discussion of the drought and additional maps, please visit https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
 
You can also visit https://www.drought.gov/ for additional local impacts using the "How Is Drought Affecting Your Neighborhood" Tool
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Observed Precipitation Trends
The maps below are courtesy the Midwest Regional Climate Center.
7 Day % of Normal
14 Day % of Normal
30 Day % of Normal
90 Day % of Normal
Year To Date % of Normal

 

Observed Temperature Trends
The maps below are courtesy the Midwest Regional Climate Center.
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90 Depart. Normal
YTD Depart. Normal
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Vegdri
VegDri MN
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VegDri: Fused satellite vegetation health and observed precipitation trends. This information is critical because the climate-vegetation response can vary depending on these different environmental characteristics. (More information and maps from the VegDri website.)

 

Streamflow
The maps below come from USGS WaterWatch. Additional information is available from the MN DNR (link)
14 Day Streamflow Ranking
14  Day Streamflow to Drought Rating

 

14 Day Streamflow Ranking
14 Day Streamflow to Drought Rating
 

 

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Drought Information Statement
Drought Information Statements are issued when D2/Severe Drought or worse is present. (Check date on statement below.) For other drought statements from other offices, visit drought.gov.

000
AXUS73 KDLH 231712
DGTDLH
MNC001-021-031-035-061-071-075-137-301715-

Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1212 PM CDT Thu Sep 23 2021

...SOME IMPROVEMENT TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS AFTER RECENT RAINFALL,
BUT SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT PERSISTS FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA...

.SYNOPSIS:

Much needed rain has fallen across some of the most drought-
stricken areas across the Northland in the past two weeks. This
rain has resulted in some notable improvement to drought
conditions, though most areas still remain several inches below
normal for the year-to-date. According to the September 21, 2021
release of the U.S. Drought Monitor, Extreme Drought (D3) is
occurring generally from central to northeastern St. Louis, Lake,
and Cook Counties in northeast Minnesota, as well as western
Itasca and most of Koochiching Counties in northern Minnesota.
Severe Drought (D2) is occurring across most other areas in
northeast Minnesota and parts of northern Bayfield and Ashland
Counties in northwest Wisconsin. Abnormally Dry (D0) to Moderate
Drought (D1) conditions are occurring from east-central Minnesota
and areas east into parts of far northwest Wisconsin. An area of
Exceptional Drought (D4) has been eliminated with this update, and
some areas that were classified as Extreme Drought (D3) have
slightly improved to Severe Drought (D2).These drought conditions
are likely to persist through the fall for most of northeast
Minnesota, but some improvement is likely for parts of east-
central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin per the Climate
Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts.

.SUMMARY OF IMPACTS:

State and local actions: State and local wildland fire monitoring
agencies continue to monitor for elevated fire danger.

Wildfire threat: Recent rains have improved the threat for
wildfires. According to the Minnesota DNR, the fire danger is low
for most areas and moderate for parts of northern St. Louis and
Lake Counties, as well as western parts of Koochiching, Itasca,
and Cass Counties. The fire danger is low across northwest
Wisconsin according to the Wisconsin DNR. With generally dry
conditions in the forecast for the next week and soil moisture
remaining dry for some areas, there is some potential for the
wildfire threat to worsen a bit, but the threat for wildfires
remains low to moderate at this time.

River and Streamflow Impacts: Drought conditions are apparent in
NE Minnesota`s rivers and lakes. According to the Minnesota DNR,
MPCA and USGS low to minimum flows are occurring at many river
gauges in northeast Minnesota. The Rainy River Basin is
experiencing some of the lowest water levels on record. Rainfall
over the Upper Mississippi River the last 14 days has been 1 to 2
inches above normal, however, rainfall was not widespread
throughout the basin. River flows in the Upper Mississippi have
remained much below normal. Wisconsin river flows are normal to
above normal. Watercraft users should be aware of navigation
hazards like rocks.

.CLIMATE SUMMARY:

Several rounds of rain and thunderstorms have occurred in the
past two weeks, with much of this occurring in the past week.
Rainfall accumulations between 0.5 and 4 inches have occurred
across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with a narrow
corridor up to 6 inches observed across Douglas County and into
eastern Pine County. This rainfall has resulted in noticeable
improvements in drought conditions. However, rainfall deficits
around 2 to 8 inches in the past 90 days still persist for much of
northeastern Minnesota and parts of northwest Wisconsin. A fairly
dry fall 2020 and winter 2020-2021 with below normal snowfall as
well as a very dry summer 2021 have preconditioned the current
drought conditions. The duration of this drought is similar to
that of Summer 2017 through Summer 2018 and Summer 2006 through
Summer 2007. The coverage of extreme drought is greater than that
seen in the drought from Summer 2006 through Summer 2007.

.PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS:

Rainfall chances in the next week will be somewhat sparse with
the best chances occurring Friday into Friday night.
Accumulations will generally be a tenth of an inch or two with
some areas seeing up to around half an inch. Dry weather is
expected through the middle part of next week. The CPC is
forecasting above normal chances for precipitation in October with
equal chances for above or below precipitation from October
through December. Temperatures are expected to remain around
or above seasonal averages for the next week. The CPC is
forecasting above normal temperatures for the month of October and
equal chances for above or below normal temperatures from October
through December.

.HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK:

Water levels are expected to remain low for the foreseeable
future.

.LOCAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK:

Drought conditions are likely to remain but improve for most areas
across northeast Minnesota per CPC forecasts. Drought conditions
may end this fall for portions of east-central Minnesota into
northwest Wisconsin.

.NEXT ISSUANCE DATE:

This product will be updated on or around Thursday, October 28 or
sooner if drought conditions change significantly.

.RELATED WEB SITES:

Additional information on current drought conditions may be found
at the following web addresses:
US Drought Monitor: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu US Drought
Information System: https://www.drought.gov NOAA Drought Page:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought
Midwest Regional Climate Center: https://mrcc.illinois.edu
Minnesota State Climate Office:
https://climateapps.dnr.state.mn.us/

Additional water and river information:
NWS: https://water.weather.gov
OWP: https://water.noaa.gov
US Geological Survey (USGS): https://water.usgs.gov
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE): https://www.usace.army.mil

.ACKNOWLEDGMENTS:

The Drought Monitor is a multi-agency effort involving the
National Weather Service and National Centers for Environmental
Information, the USDA, state and regional center climatologists
and the National Drought Mitigation Center. Information for this
statement has been gathered from NWS and FAA observation sites,
state cooperative extension services, the USDA, USACE and USGS.

.CONTACT INFORMATION:

If you have questions or comments about this Drought Information
Statement, please contact:

National Weather Service
5027 Miller Trunk Highway
Duluth MN 55811
Phone...218-729-6697
nws.duluth@noaa.gov

$$

JDS

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