Spring Flood Outlook for Northeast MN and Northwest WI

2026 Spring Flood Outlook #1 (Feb 12, 2026)

Spring Flooding potential across most of the Northland is normal to below normal based on marginal amounts of snow water and fairly deep frost depths. The exception is the South Shore lake effect snow belt, where a slightly above normal Spring flooding potential exists.
Precipitation and rate of snowmelt while the ground is frozen through early spring will be one of the most important flood risk factors. This outlook does not take into account the risk of flash flooding.
Deep frost could lead to poor infiltration and efficient runoff if heavy rains fall while the ground is still frozen.

Current Spring Flood Threat Checklist

Threat	Impact to Potential Spring Flooding	Links
High River Levels	Below Normal Streamflow	USGS WaterWatch MN WI
High Soil Moisture	Below Normal North, Above Normal South	CPC Soil Moisture
Winter Precipitation	Lower	Climate Prediction Center 6 to 10 Day 8 - 14 Day
Current Snowpack/Liquid Equivalent	Normal to Below Normal, Above Normal for South Shore	Current Snow Water Equivalent Analysis Snow Water Equivalent Ranking
Rate of Snowmelt	TBD	24, 48, & 72 hr Snowmelt
Frost Depth	Normal to Above Normal	Frost Depth Map
Spring Precipitation	TBD	Point Forecast (Next 7 Days) Precip Outlook (Upcoming Weeks)

For more details, please see the full briefing PDF:

Spring Flood Outlook Update #1 (Feb 12, 2026)

NWS Duluth Snow Survey Data for the MN Arrowhead and Rainy River Basin:

NWS Duluth meteorologists perform snow surveys each winter to fill critical snow water equivalent (SWE) data gaps across portions of Northeast Minnesota. The latest survey was on Feb 5th and 6th, 2026. All the latest SWE observations in the last 72 hours across the Northland can be viewed at this link. Most SWE data comes in on Mondays.

Location	Snow Depth (inches)	SWE (inches)
Tofte Ranger Station	11	2.3
Sawbill Campground	20	3.6
Windy Lake (Lake Co. Hwy 7)	18	2.8
Wye Lake (Lake Co. Hwy 7)	18	2.7
Little Isabella River Campground	16	2.5
South Kawishiwi River Campground	16	2.9
Sand Lake Campground (Lake County Hwy 2)	17	3.0
Wales	16	2.8
Big Lake Boat Launch (Echo Trail)	14	2.8
Lake Jeanette Campground (Echo Trail)	16	2.4
Echo Lake Campground (Echo Trail)	15	2.4
Littlefork River near Linden Grove	12	2.3
Little Moose Trailhead (MN State Hwy 65)	12	1.9