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059
FXUS64 KEWX 052340
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
640 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021
.AVIATION...
There are still a few showers around the area this evening. While we
can`t rule out convection completely tonight, chances are very low.
All airports are VFR and will remain that way through the evening.
MVFR ceilings will develop in the San Antonio area overnight, but AUS
and DRT will stay VFR. Ceilings in the San Antonio area will rebound
to VFR by late morning Friday. Low chances for showers and
thunderstorms will return for the late morning and afternoon Friday.
Chances will be low and timing is indeterminate at this time. The
strongest cells could drop ceilings and visibility to IFR briefly.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Sky changes in flight, afternoon delight...this afternoon across the
area as morning convection wanes, yet outflow boundaries and small
mesoscale circulations initiate new convection, generally to the
south and west of earlier storms. The loss of diurnal heating should
result in declining convective coverage through late afternoon and
into the evening. Later tonight, the low-level jet and tropical
nature of the profile in place over South Texas will result in new
convection developing on both sides of the border in the Rio Grande
Plains. Mesoscale CAMs point toward the center of a mid-level low
between EGP and LRD overnight, so that`s where the best chances for
rain and highest QPF are. The remainder of the area should be dry by
early evening.
Friday will be a repeat of today, with PoPs areawide, but the best
chances, and highest QPF, will be along and east of I-35, as the
mid-level low tracks eastward toward the Gulf coast. Overall, storms
should be of less coverage and QPF, but enough to consider for any
outdoor plans.
LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
The wet and humid period of the past week will end Friday night, as
mid and upper level ridging build in from the northwest across Texas
over the next week. The global/medium range models are in good
agreement with a flat, subtropical ridge becoming established over
the state and staying in place the entirety of next week. Normally,
that would result in well above normal temperatures, but the wet soil
and high boundary layer humidity from recent rains will have to be
mixed out, thereby keeping high temperatures from reaching their
potential if the soil and boundary layer were already dry.
Regardless, afternoon heat index values will reach 102-109 next week,
which will be borderline Heat Advisory criteria, most likely on the
coastal plains east of I-35.
Beyond the forecast period, easterly flow from the Gulf appears to
open up after August 14th, likely leading to a return of high
humidity and PoPs.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 73 91 75 94 76 / 10 30 - - 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 72 91 74 94 75 / 10 30 - - 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 91 74 94 75 / 10 30 - - 0
Burnet Muni Airport 71 91 74 93 74 / 10 30 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 73 91 75 95 76 / 10 30 - 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 71 92 74 94 75 / 10 30 0 - 0
Hondo Muni Airport 72 90 74 93 74 / 10 30 - 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 72 91 74 94 75 / 10 30 - - 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 74 92 77 94 78 / 10 30 - 10 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 74 90 75 93 75 / 10 30 - - 0
Stinson Muni Airport 75 91 77 95 77 / 10 30 - - 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term/Aviation...05
Long-Term...04
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