A storm system will shift from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley Monday with additional threats of severe thunderstorms and heavy to excessive rainfall which may bring flooding. A Flood Watch remains in effect. In the northern U.S., a storm will bring heavy snow and gusty winds over parts of the northern Rockies, northern Plains, and Upper Midwest Monday into Wednesday. Read More >
734
FXUS64 KEWX 232359 AAA
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
559 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated strong to severe storms are possible over the Coastal
Plains east of the Austin area Monday afternoon.
- Locally heavy rain possible in thunderstorms.
- Fall like temperatures for Thanksgiving, with patchy morning
freezes possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
An upper level low is centered over Arizona with a ridge to the
east extending from the Gulf to the central Great Plains. At the
surface, a stationary front is stretched across South Texas south
of our CWA. High pressure behind the front has the winds turning
from east-northeasterly to southeasterly across South-Central
Texas. While the surface dewpoints remain mainly in the 50s, the
morning sounding from DRT shows a saturated layer above the
boundary layer. There has been enough lift in this layer to
produce some showers and a few thunderstorms this morning.
The upper ridge over the plains will force the low to move toward
the northeast into the central Plains tonight and tomorrow. At the
same time a Pacific cold front will move into Texas and through
our CWA. Models have decreased rain chances for tonight to 20%-40%
with the higher chances across the north. With the lowest layer of
the atmosphere so dry, rainfall amounts, outside of thunderstorms,
will be light tonight. Better chances for rain will come Monday
when the front moves through. Again the better ingredients for
showers and thunderstorms will be across the north. Rainfall
amounts will be moderate outside of thunderstorms. Speaking of
thunderstorms, there is a chance that some storms may be strong to
severe over the eastern portion of the CWA. The primary threat
will be large hail. SPC has included a small part of our CWA,
parts of Williamson, Lee, and Fayette Counties, in the Level 2
(Slight) of 5 risk for Monday afternoon. The front will move off
the east Monday night taking rain chances with it.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
High pressure will settle in for the second half of the week. This
will bring dry weather for Wednesday through Friday. Cooler air
will also move in and it may actually feel like fall for a few
days. High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s with lows from
the 30s to 50s. Thanksgiving morning looks to be the coolest of
the week and while yesterday it looked there could be some spots
reaching freezing, today lows came in a few degrees warmer. We
still wouldn`t completely rule a freeze. An upper level shortwave
trough will move into the region for next weekend bringing the
next chance for rain. At this time it looks like the best chances
will be over the eastern half of the area where moisture will be
deepest.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
MVFR cigs are forecast for the local area terminals through late
this evening and then IFR cigs are forecast to develop between 04Z
and 09Z Monday for the Austin, San Antonio, and Del Rio sites.
There maybe some drizzle Monday morning across the I-35 Corridor
before that activity changes to showers. Can`t rule out a thunder
or two mid/late afternoon. VFR conditions are forecast to begin
out west over KDRT and the expand eastward into the I-35 Corridor
airports as a Pacific front pushes across the local area. The
winds are forecast to stay from the east and southeast across the
local area sites this evening through Monday morning. As the
boundary pushes to the east, the wind shifts to the northwest with
speeds of 8 to 12 knots with occasional gusts up to 20 knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 66 80 56 79 / 30 80 30 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 65 81 53 79 / 30 80 30 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 66 81 55 81 / 30 60 20 0
Burnet Muni Airport 62 74 51 75 / 40 80 10 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 66 81 52 80 / 30 20 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 62 78 51 76 / 30 80 20 0
Hondo Muni Airport 64 78 50 82 / 20 60 10 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 65 82 53 81 / 30 70 30 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 66 83 58 79 / 20 80 70 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 67 80 56 81 / 20 50 10 0
Stinson Muni Airport 69 82 57 83 / 20 40 10 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Tran
LONG TERM....Tran
AVIATION...17
No recent Short Term Forecast (NOW) has been issued for NWS Austin/San Antonio CWA (EWX).
Special Weather Statement Issued: 11/21/2025 11:44:00 AM UTC
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