909
FXUS64 KEWX 110000
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
600 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Low to medium rain chances this afternoon through Wednesday
morning.
- Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through the next week.
- Medium to high rain chances return again Friday night through
Saturday afternoon.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 546 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Raised PoPs through 12 AM CST Wednesday mainly over the southern
Edwards Plateau and Hill Country based on current radar trends.
Rain intensities remain light.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Regional radar imagery shows quite of bit of reflectivity, but how
much of this precip is reaching the ground is up for debate.
Western areas will be favored for some light accumulations of less
than 1/10th of an inch this afternoon through early evening before
rainfall shifts east into the Hill Country, I-35 Corridor, and
Coastal Plains this evening through Wednesday morning. Totals
between 1/10th and 1/4th of an inch are most likely with this
activity overnight. Upper level support will be rather weak as a
mid- level low has opened up more over the region rather than
remaining compact. Nevertheless, drizzle and light rain is
expected along with low clouds and some patchy fog the next 24
hours.
Temperatures will remain above normal despite cloud cover and
abundant moisture. Highs top out in the low to mid 70s today and
again on Wednesday. Any rain should exit the area by late
Wednesday morning, but may linger over the southern Coastal Plains
into the early afternoon hours. An afternoon mix of clouds and sun
is expected Wednesday after morning overcast conditions. Wednesday
night is expected to remain mild with lows in the 50s along with
scattered clouds.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Mid-level ridging will develop in the wake of the departing
shortwave Wednesday and Thursday, sending high temperatures back
into the upper 70s to lower 80s Thursday and Friday. Our next shot
at meaningful rainfall arrives Friday night through Saturday
afternoon as an upper-level trough digs over the Baja of
California. Unlike the current system, this storm system will
have sufficient deep layer shear to spark off showers and
thunderstorms starting as early Friday night out west, and pushing
east Saturday morning. Moisture return ahead of this trough will
be substantial, and with NBM probabilities of Mean CAPE greater
than 500 J/kg around 40-60% from the I-35 Corridor and east, ML
lapse rates of 6.5-7.5 C/km, and 0-6km bulk shear of 40-60 kts,
there is a low threat for some strong to severe storms as a front
moves across the region from west to east. Rainfall amounts will
be highest towards the Austin metro and northern Hill Country,
between 1/4 and 3/4 of an inch. As this frontal boundary will be
more Pacific in origin, little to no temperature change is
expected behind it. Ridging will once again follow behind this
system, with temperatures remaining above normal into the start of
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Low confidence aviation forecast for the next 18 hours, but
significant impacts are not expected. CIGs are expected to
generally trend to MVFR with greater confidence for KAUS/KSAT and
vicinity after 09Z. IFR is highly uncertain and kept out of 00Z
TAFs, but will need to continue monitoring especially for
KSAT/KSSF around 09Z-12Z. Areas of weak and intermittent -SHRA are
possible mainly through 06Z regionwide, but confidence is low on
timing. PROB30s are indicated when atmosphere best favors rain
reaching the ground. Light to variable winds prevail for most
areas this evening. A weak front will bring prevailing northerlies
by 12Z but winds remain below 10 kt. Lowest CIGs in the next 24
hours are mainly clustered around this frontal passage. Expect
improvement to VFR Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 57 74 54 79 / 30 10 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 57 76 53 80 / 30 10 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 57 75 54 79 / 30 10 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 52 71 51 77 / 30 10 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 54 77 58 82 / 30 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 55 74 52 79 / 30 10 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 54 77 54 80 / 20 10 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 57 76 54 80 / 30 10 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 60 76 56 80 / 30 10 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 59 74 56 79 / 30 10 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 59 76 58 80 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...Tran
No recent Short Term Forecast (NOW) has been issued for NWS Austin/San Antonio CWA (EWX).
Special Weather Statement Issued: 02/08/2026 04:44:00 PM UTC
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