965
FXUS64 KEWX 190502
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1102 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 150 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025
Key Messages:
-Cold Weather Advisory for Sunday morning.
-Hazardous Wind Chill Values both Sunday and Monday morning.
-Protect People, Pets, Plants, and Pipes from the cold weather.
-Near Critical Fire Weather conditions on Sunday
A moderate northerly flow has developed across South-Central Texas
behind the passage of the initial frontal boundary overnight. A
sunny afternoon is expected with quite a temperature spread across
the region. Locations in the Hill Country and across our northern
counties will remain in the mid to upper 50s while central areas
climb into the 60s and low to mid 70s top out in our southwestern
most counties along the Rio Grande. The combination of the lower
humidity with moderate winds could create locally elevated fire
weather conditions this afternoon. Winds may briefly lower by this
evening but this will be short lived as a secondary and stronger
push of cold air advection arrives from the north. This results in
breezy north winds with gusts into the 25 to 35 mph range and
plummeting temperatures. Overnight lows into Sunday morning will
fall into the mid 20s across the Hill Country and mainly the upper
20s and low to mid 30s elsewhere. Once wind is factored in, minimum
wind chill values dip into the 10 to 15 degree range for the Hill
Country and the upper teens and low 20s from the I-35 corridor and
eastward. As a result, a cold weather advisory remains in effect
from midnight tonight through 9 AM Sunday morning over those
locations. Along the Rio Grande, temperatures and wind chill values
are slightly higher and above the cold weather advisory criteria.
A chilly but sunny day is expected on Sunday as the afternoon highs
will only climb up to near 40 degrees across the Hill Country and
low to upper 40s elsewhere. The northerly winds stay breezy but
slightly decline later in the afternoon. However, this will keep
wind chills in the 30s for most and the low 40s along the Rio
Grande. The combination of the drier humidity levels and stronger
northerly flow in comparison to this afternoon, the fire weather
conditions across the region will become of elevated to near
critical levels in comparison to locally elevated conditions this
afternoon.
A very cold night is expected Sunday night into the morning on MLK
JR Day. Overnight lows will fall into the upper teens across the
Hill Country and low to mid 20s elsewhere. The ,minimum wind chills
lower into the teens across majority of South-Central Texas with
localized upper single digit values in the Hill Country. Expect an
additional issuance along with a possible areal expansion of the
Cold Weather Advisory into Sunday night and Monday morning in the
next shift or two.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 150 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025
Key Messages:
- There is very high confidence (near 100%) that hard freezes will
occur Sunday night through Tuesday night. Protect People, Pets,
Plants, and Pipes from the cold weather.
- There is a high chance (60-70%) of winter precipitation occurring
Monday night into Tuesday morning across the eastern Hill Country, I-
35 corridor, and Coastal Plains, with increasing confidence of minor
to moderate travel impacts.
- There is increasing confidence in more of a wintry mix of freezing
rain, sleet, and snow, rather than all snow for the I-35 Corridor
and Coastal Plains.
- Winter weather products/headlines will likely be needed by Sunday.
The long-advertised winter weather event will begin Monday evening
and last through late Tuesday morning. With regard to the cold, we
do expect additional Cold Weather Advisories each day, with the
possibility of just issuing an advisory for most locations through
the entirety of the event. Further thought will be given to this
potential tomorrow. In any matter, it`s going to be cold for several
days, with the potential for temperatures to remain at or below
freezing over the Hill Country for over 36 hours Monday night
through Wednesday morning. Now is the time to protect those outdoor
pipes to prevent freezing up during that time frame.
The biggest concerns with this forecast package revolve around
precip type and amounts and both of those things remain in flux with
low to medium confidence in amounts and location at this time. The
latest suite of 12Z model guidance has come in with continued dry
air in the dendritic growth zone (Typically between -10 to -20 C).
Despite a near sub freezing to completely below freezing layer
between the surface and 700mb, this dry layer in the dendritic
growth zone could hamper ice crystal formation and lead to more of a
wintry mix than snow for most locations during this event. We`ll
need to continue monitoring guidance to see how precipitation types
unfold.
Precipitation should quickly come to an end late Tuesday morning as
the coastal low to the south shifts eastward, pulling with it any
moisture remaining at the surface to the east. Temperatures will
remain cold despite some breaks in the clouds Tuesday afternoon,
with highs remaining in the lower to middle 30s. Tuesday night may
actually be the coldest night of the entire period with lows in the
teens for all locations outside of places along the Rio Grande. We
should finally climb back out of the freezer Wednesday afternoon
with highs back in the 40s. 50s can be expected by Thursday and
Friday, with highs back near normal and in the 60s by Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1033 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025
VFR conditions prevail through the period under few to clear sky
conditions. The stronger surge of colder, northerly winds has finally
arrived. These winds will result in gusts along the I-35 corridor to
reach into the 25 to 30 knot range. Recent gust observations at KAUS
of 24 knots at 03Z and a gust of 26 knots at 04Z at KSAT and a gust
of 23 knots at KSSF have given us higher confidence that these gusty
winds should continue until around 01Z Monday. Winds will trend
slightly weaker towards the Rio Grande and Del Rio areas. Winds
gradually diminish and turn more westerly at KDRT towrads the end of
the forecast period and west northwest late in the 30 hr TAF period
at KAUS and KSAT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 29 43 22 39 / 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 29 43 20 40 / 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 30 44 22 40 / 0 0 0 10
Burnet Muni Airport 26 39 20 39 / 0 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 33 48 27 48 / 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 26 41 19 39 / 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 30 47 23 39 / 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 29 43 20 39 / 0 0 0 10
La Grange - Fayette Regional 30 43 23 41 / 0 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 31 45 24 39 / 0 0 0 10
Stinson Muni Airport 32 46 26 40 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for Atascosa-Bandera-
Bastrop-Bexar-Blanco-Burnet-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Edwards-Fayette-
Gillespie-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Lavaca-
Lee-Llano-Medina-Real-Travis-Uvalde-Val Verde-Williamson-Wilson.
&&
$$
Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...05
Aviation...CJM
No recent Short Term Forecast (NOW) has been issued for NWS Austin/San Antonio CWA (EWX).
No recent Special Weather Statement (SPS) has been issued for NWS Austin/San Antonio CWA (EWX).
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