988
FXUS64 KEWX 030620
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1220 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Well above average temperatures remainder of this week, trending
slightly cooler this weekend into early next week
- Unsettled weather pattern develops mid week with rain and storm
chances through early next week; stronger storms and locally
heavy rain may be possible
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1220 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026
Today will be similar to the last few days with morning low clouds
giving way to afternoon sunshine. Unfortunately, the low clouds will
result in poor to non existent viewing of the lunar eclipse across
most areas during totality between 5 AM and 6 AM CST this morning.
However, parts of the Rio Grande where the low clouds reach the last
may be able to see at least the start of totality. On Wednesday, a
mid/upper level trough passes well to our north over the Central
Plains sending a cold front south into Texas that stalls just to our
north of our area by evening. Much of the forcing remains to our
north. However, a deep lower/mid level moist layer will be in place
with the front nearby. Patchy drizzle and light rain early in the
day grows upscale to showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and
evening as the airmass become more unstable due to heating. Forecast
soundings show MLCAPE of 1,500 J/Kg and steep mid level lapse rates
of 7.3 C/km which indicate a potential of strong to severe storms
across the eastern Hill Country into our Central Texas counties,
including the Austin metro area. SPC has a marginal (1 of 5) risk
for those areas. Due to the lower level thermal ridge, little or no
changes in the temperature trends are expected.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 1220 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026
Forcing wanes on Thursday as the front dissipates while lifting back
to the north with showers and thunderstorms becoming more isolated.
A mid/upper level trough moving toward the Four Corners on Thursday
splits on Friday with one part moving to the east over the Plains
with the other part moving to the southwest to off Baja California
where it remains as a closed low this weekend into early next week.
The Plains part of the trough sends a cold front south into Texas,
that may stall across our area Saturday night. Then, spokes of
energy rotating around the low off Baja along with the stalled front
maintain forcing on Sunday into Monday. As a result, periods of
showers and thunderstorms can be expected Friday through Monday. The
latest ensemble guidance shows a 50 to 75% chance for at least 1
inch rainfall for most of our area with a potential for multiple
inches across some areas. Moderate instability and shear as shown in
forecast soundings may allow for a few strong to severe storms. The
widespread cloudiness and areas of rain along with very weak cold
advection behind the front may result in "cooler", though still
above average temperatures this weekend into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026
MVFR cloud deck is just getting into the I-35 Corridor. Ceilings
in Austin and San Antonio should remain MVFR overnight and through
the morning. However, there is some guidance showing IFR in San
Antonio. That looks like an outlier, and we have kept it MVFR.
Ceilings will spread to DRT around sunrise. All terminals will
rebound to VFR by around noon. Low clouds will return late
tonight.
Winds will continue to be from the south to southeast in Austin
and San Antonio and from the east-southeast at DRT. Expect speeds
to increase during the day.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 88 68 84 67 / 0 10 70 40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 88 66 85 66 / 0 10 70 30
New Braunfels Muni Airport 87 65 84 66 / 0 10 70 30
Burnet Muni Airport 84 65 80 65 / 0 10 70 30
Del Rio Intl Airport 87 66 86 66 / 0 10 30 20
Georgetown Muni Airport 86 66 83 65 / 0 10 70 30
Hondo Muni Airport 88 63 87 63 / 0 10 50 30
San Marcos Muni Airport 88 65 86 66 / 0 10 70 30
La Grange - Fayette Regional 87 67 85 67 / 0 0 40 10
San Antonio Intl Airport 87 67 85 67 / 0 10 60 40
Stinson Muni Airport 88 68 87 68 / 0 10 60 40
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...05
No recent Short Term Forecast (NOW) has been issued for NWS Austin/San Antonio CWA (EWX).
Special Weather Statement Issued: 02/28/2026 06:27:00 PM UTC
Follow us on X
Follow us on Facebook
Follow us on YouTube
EWX RSS Feed