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Forecast Discussion

                        
174
FXUS64 KEWX 301739
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1139 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool temperatures continue, but with breezy winds lessening
  tonight.

- Patchy freeze possible for rural portions of the Hill Country
  Tuesday morning.

- Increasing rain chances Thursday and Friday across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Brisk and cool autumnal air is here and will stick around for a few
days as northerly winds persist. The stronger and gustier winds from
this morning are expected to subside as the recent cold front and
its associated pressure gradient moves farther south and broadens.
VAD wind profiles from the KEWX and KDFX radar sites show southerly
flow continuing above 5000 ft even despite the cold surge, so we`ll
remain socked in under cloud cover and remain cool in the daytime.

A cool night with lighter winds is forecast with lows mostly in the
upper 30s to mid 40s. Continued overcast skies should keep
temperatures from diving much farther despite the ongoing near-
surface cold air advection. Thus, freezing temperatures are not
forecast tonight into Monday morning, and the latest HREF and REFS
guidance portray negligible (less than 5% chances) of below freezing
temperatures.

On Monday, a shortwave trough embedded in the subtropical jet is
forecast to move into our area, leading to an increase in rain
chances for mainly the Coastal Plains as a coastal low develops
offshore. Most rain will be light to moderate with a possible
isolated rumble of thunder. The most likely rain totals from
mesoscale models (25th to 75th percentile) range from a few
hundredths up to about a half-inch. Those rains should clear out of
the area by the evening. The cyclonic flow around the coastal low
and the spread of mid-level moisture will likely prolong cloudy
conditions especially for the eastern Hill Country, I-35 corridor,
and Coastal Plains, making for another cool afternoon with highs in
the upper 40s to low 50s. To the west, a brief window for southerly
flow is expected and some clearing is forecast behind the passerby
trough, so temperatures could reach the upper 50s and low 60s along
the Rio Grande.

On Monday night, a separate pair of shortwave troughs makes its way
over the southern Plains. The stronger lead trough helps to deliver
some reinforcing cold with a renewed and deeper layer north breeze
that chips away at the cloud cover, but the weaker lagging trough
over our latitude could counteract those effects slightly. Still,
the drier mid-level profiles and supportive winds favor Monday night
to Tuesday morning behind the coldest overnight stretch of this
cooler period. Forecast lows range from the low 30s to mid 40s
areawide, with a medium chance (30 to 60 percent) of a freeze in
portions of the Hill Country.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Seasonably cool to slightly colder than seasonable temperatures are
forecast to continue throughout the week. Troughing is forecast to
amplify over the western CONUS beginning Wednesday downwind of
positive height anomalies over the northern Pacific. This will
enhance divergence aloft over our area and promote broad rising
motion over the Southern Plains, favoring increased and potentially
widespread rain chances Thursday through at least Friday (rain
chances are currently 50 to 70 percent for most). Chances and
amounts could be further enhanced if the cut-off low currently
meandering the Pacific off California gets swept into the amplified
troughing, delivering additional moisture over our region. This
weather pattern is not supportive of freezing temperatures, but a
period of cool afternoons under persistent cloud cover and
complemented by some rain does look to be shaping up in the latter
half of the week. Slight warming trends are possible towards the
weekend, but the continued presence of longwave troughing across the
CONUS suggests any such warmups will probably be slow at best.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Mostly cloudy to overcast skies prevail through the period with
primarily MVFR to VFR flight conditions. Ceilings become lowest
early Monday morning when some light rain or drizzle could be
possible as well. Greatest rain chances is forecast to focus
southeast of the I-35 terminals (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF) but have
enough confidence to include PROB30s for -RADZ for these sites.
Locations along the Rio Grande and Hill Country remain drier,
including KDRT. Breezy northerly winds start to subside in the
second half of the afternoon and should fall below 10 kt into
overnight tonight. Winds trend weaker along the Rio Grande,
including KDRT, with the directions shifting late in the
period easterly to east-southeasterly.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              41  49  36  56 /  20  30  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  40  49  35  56 /  20  30  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     41  50  37  57 /  30  30  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            38  50  33  55 /  10  20  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           46  60  42  62 /  10  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        40  50  33  56 /  20  20  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             42  55  37  60 /  20  20   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        40  50  36  57 /  30  30  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   41  50  37  55 /  40  50  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       43  52  39  59 /  20  30   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           44  53  41  59 /  20  30   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tran
LONG TERM....Tran
AVIATION...62