473
FXUS64 KEWX 040550
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1250 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Steady warming trend through Wednesday with apparent
temperatures in the 90s to around 100F.
- Low to medium (20-40%) rain/storm chances return for the middle
to end of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026
The warming trend continues with highs today expected to reach the
mid 80s for most of the area, with upper 80s in the Winter Garden
region under mostly sunny albeit partly cirrus-lined skies. Low-
level winds over South-Central Texas will be responsive to pressure
falls concentrated over the Central Plains today, leading to a
moderately breezy afternoon with gusts up to the 20-25 mph range.
Breezy conditions are expected to persist especially at higher
elevations into Tuesday morning as 850mb winds strengthen
temporarily.
After a day`s worth of moist southerly flow, dew points will be back
above the mid-60s come Tuesday, keeping the overnight hours much
more mild with lows in the mid-60s to near 70 before sunrise on
Tuesday. A thermal ridge will overlap with this moistening, so
afternoon heat indices are forecast to rise into the 90s for most
locations with peak values around 95 to 102 in the Rio Grande Plains
and San Antonio area. Stronger troughing advancing over the
southwestern US will allow a dryline to propagate farther east into
the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country late Tuesday afternoon before
retreating back west. The capping inversion is likely to hold firm
during the daylight hours with the thermal ridge in place, but a
weak shortwave arriving late Tuesday evening or into the night could
provide just enough extra lift to spark an isolated nocturnal
thunderstorm over the plateau on the retreating dryline. Coverage
will likely be low, with less than 20% PoPs, but a storm in that
environment could produce some large hail given ample shear and
conditional instability aloft.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026
The dryline should make another eastward jog Wednesday as upper
troughing approaches. Better convergence along the dryline may
provide a better opportunity for some storm development during the
day mainly north of I-10 and closer to the I-35 corridor, but
capping is still expected to keep rain chances on the lower side and
should favor more isolated activity. Aside from those low chances,
expect warm and muggy weather with heat indices again in the 90s for
most with the most humid spots near 100.
Our next cold front cuts in from the north behind the dry line with
most models showing an arrival sometime between Wednesday night and
Thursday morning. That air will shove away the midweek warmth and
humidity, bringing highs in the 70s Thursday and lows in the mid 50s
to mid 60s Thursday night. Some showers are possible along the front
when it arrives, but the prospects for rain behind the front are
uncertain and are largely tied to uncertainties with the handling of
an upper-level cut-off low over the Baja California. If that
disturbance arrives faster (such as depicted by the previous 12Z
ECMWF), that would shift rain chances closer to the front. A slower
front (such as depicted by the GFS) could delay rains, potentially
keeping that episode distinct from the frontal airmass itself.
Ensembles dip their toes in both outcomes, so current ensemble
fields and the national blend have rain chances smeared generally
between Thursday and Saturday without much of a favored outcome at
the moment. We should get a clearer picture on our late week in the
coming days, but for now, a broad and low chances (mainly due to
uncertainty in timing as opposed to environmental favorability) for
rain are depicted Thursday through Saturday along and in the wake of
the front, with an accompanying potential for some thunder. A
gradual warming trend is also anticipated amid this activity through
the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026
Onshore southeast winds are ramping up as upper troughing deepens
to the west and the surface pressure gradient tightens over NW TX.
Dew point temps in the 50s almost area-wide means the moistening
of the low levels will take some time. MET MOS being the usual
better performer on return flow suggest the I-35 corridor gets an
arrival of MVFR CIGs after daybreak and for a fairly short period.
Based on the time section for RH in this area, we`ll lean on the
cloud layer hanging in some places through around noon with SAT
the usual location to keep a longer period of stratus. VFR skies
are depicted all afternoon and evening as the mid level air above
around 5000 ft will remain dry and will be able be part of the
mixed layer late in the day. Shortly after midnight a more solid
layer of MVFR CIGs are expected and should finish out the
remainder of the TAF periods. AT DRT the first arrival of an MVFR
CIG should not be until at least around 09Z Tuesday, so perhaps
the 12Z TAF update will show a CIG there at the end. Winds should
be mostly sustained at around 6-12 knots, with gusts to 24 knots
possible in the daytime and evening hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 85 70 90 73 / 0 0 0 20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 85 70 90 74 / 0 0 0 10
New Braunfels Muni Airport 86 68 90 72 / 0 0 0 10
Burnet Muni Airport 83 68 89 71 / 0 0 10 20
Del Rio Intl Airport 87 69 92 72 / 0 0 0 20
Georgetown Muni Airport 84 69 90 73 / 0 0 0 20
Hondo Muni Airport 86 67 92 72 / 0 0 0 20
San Marcos Muni Airport 85 68 90 73 / 0 0 0 10
La Grange - Fayette Regional 85 69 89 73 / 0 0 0 10
San Antonio Intl Airport 86 69 91 74 / 0 0 0 10
Stinson Muni Airport 87 69 92 74 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Tran
LONG TERM....Tran
AVIATION...18
No recent Short Term Forecast (NOW) has been issued for NWS Austin/San Antonio CWA (EWX).
Special Weather Statement Issued: 05/01/2026 10:35:00 PM UTC
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