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Forecast Discussion

                        
901
FXUS64 KEWX 141748
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1148 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm through next week, record highs possible Sunday
  through Tuesday.

- Rain chances return (30-60%) for middle to late next week
  however confidence continues to remain low on timing.

&&


.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Quiet in the short term as our area remains under decent upper level
ridging through the period. it will remain warm and muggy as low
level southerly flow continues to pump in moist air from the Gulf
with dew points in the low to mid 60s likely. This humid airmass
will likely keep low temps elevated several degrees above seasonal
averages for this time of year with many areas remaining in the upper
50s to low 60s, some 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Highs will
similarly be nearly 10 to 15 degrees above normal with many
locations feeling like a second summer out there with highs well
into the 80s. We don`t cool off much as the combination of upper
level ridging and decent southerly flow help to keep all the
moisture locked into place over our area. Expect lows Saturday night
to be similar to tonights with many remaining in the 60s.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Looking ahead, by sunday the upper-level ridge stays in our area to
start the weekend before elongating and shifting east by Monday
ahead of an approaching deep-layer trough over the Intermountain
West. This allows for our area to really heat up as warm mid level
southwesterly flow helps to boost temperatures area wide as a weak
surface trough develops over TX and OK. Temperates under this
scenario could really heat up with several daily highs being tied or
broken Sunday through Tuesday(records in the upper 80s). Along with
really moist air, dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s it`l feel very
summery out there.

By mid week global models are suggesting that as the upper level
ridge flattens out and pushes off to the east an incoming trough
digs its way down into the desert southwest and eventually makes its
way east somewhere across TX or OK. Right now model consistency form
run to run is quire poor thus any solution could pan out with some
models bringing the trough north and eastward swinging it through
northern TX into OK. Other models and ensemble members suggest a more
zonal faster approach with the latter solution becoming very
favorable for the possibility of heavy rainfall and even severe
weather. Regardless, there remains uncertainty among the models and
their respective ensembles and AI versions with respect to the
timing, track, and strength of a mid level trough and its attendant
surface cold front. It likely won`t be until possibly next week that
the initial impulse is first sampled and observed by upper-air
stations on the West Coast. Once this happens we will likely have a
more confident forecast in how this trough and scenario evolves. For
now have gone with a more blended approach by capping pops in the 30-
60% range. Continue to check back often as these details become
clearer in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Thick stratus are hugging the escarpment at TAF issuance time,
so another hour of MVFR skies are expected for SAT, while
AUS/SSF/DRT have broken out to VFR. Mixed winds from aloft will keep
a few hours of SW wind components across I-35 with late day
directions swinging back to true S or SSE. DRT winds will continue
to follow typical diurnal trends of SE daytime to E nighttime. A
good ridge amplitude from TX into the central CONUS means the
pressure gradient will be light to moderate, leading to more hours
of early to late morning cigs for Saturday. Some occasional ceilings
from 500 to 900 FT AGL are possible close to daybreak.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              62  85  63  86 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  61  85  60  86 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     60  85  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            60  83  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           60  84  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        61  85  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             57  84  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        60  86  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   60  85  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       62  84  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           62  86  63  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...18