Showers and thunderstorms, along with high-elevation snow, will begin to develop over parts of the Southwest late tonight and is expected to continue through Wednesday morning. Mountain snow over parts the Northeast will continue through Tuesday. A few strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall are possible across portions of the Lower Ohio Valley Tuesday. Read More >
145
FXUS64 KEWX 172353 AAA
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
553 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unseasonably warm and muggy weather is expected into midweek
with morning low clouds, patchy fog, and drizzle.
- A upper-level Pacific trough will bring a cold front to the
region Thursday evening and and medium to high (60-90%) chance
of rain to the region, particularly on Thursday. There is the
potential for excessive rainfall with this system.
- There is uncertainty with a second Pacific trough that could
move eastward this weekend or early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1147 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025
Southeasterly surface flow will continue to advect warm and humid
Gulf air into the region, resulting in unseasonably warm and humid
conditions that will continue into tomorrow and tomorrow night. This
moisture advection will support the development of widespread low
clouds throughout the region tonight which should linger into mid-
morning tomorrow. Some isolated patches of drizzle are also possible
early tomorrow morning before conditions begin improving by early
afternoon. Tomorrow`s high temperatures will be well above normal,
with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s. Low temperatures tonight
and tomorrow night will also be above seasonal averages, getting
down into the mid-to-upper 60s and lower 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1147 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025
An upper-level Pacific trough is expected to move eastward and eject
over the Central/Southern Plains later this week, which will bring a
cold front to the area. Current guidance is trending a little bit
slower than previous guidance on the timing of the cold front`s
arrival, which is expected to arrive Thursday evening. Southeasterly
surface flow will continue through Thursday afternoon with slightly
increasing wind speeds as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of
the approaching front.
Temperatures will remain well above average in the warm sector, with
PWATs steadily increasing as high as 1.5 inches by Wednesday,
continuing to increase to as high as 2 inches immediately ahead of
the front by Thursday. With higher PWAT values, this environment is
conducive for areas of heavy rainfall to develop in the warm sector.
Rainfall chances start to significantly increase on Wednesday, with
a 40-50% chance for the Edwards Plateau eastward into Austin-San
Antonio, with slightly lower (30-40%) chances for areas east of I-
35. POPs will continue to increase overnight Wednesday into
Thursday, where precip chances will climb as high as 80-90% for
areas west-northwest of Austin-San Antonio and 60-80% for areas east
of the metro area.
While much of this rainfall will be beneficial, particularly for the
most drought-stricken southeast areas of the CWA, there could also
be some nuisance flooding concerns as well. The Weather Prediction
Center currently has a portion of the CWA in a Marginal Risk (level
1 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Wednesday, and a Slight Risk
(level 2 of 4) for Thursday. DESI NBM guidance suggests that there
is a 50-70% chance that some areas (particularly in the northern and
extreme western portions of the CWA) could receive more than 2
inches of rain, and a 20-30% chance that these areas could receive
over 3 inches between Wednesday and Friday morning. The Storm
Prediction Center also has the area in a general risk for
thunderstorms on Thursday, with the potential for some marginal hail
to fall with any of the stronger storms that happen to form. At
this time, thunderstorms are not forecasted to become severe.
Precipitation chances are expected to decrease Thursday night into
Friday as the front moves east of the area and cooler, drier air is
ushered into the region. Temperatures will also decrease to more
seasonal levels through the weekend, with highs in the low-to-mid
70s and lows in the upper 40s/lower 50s. Medium range model guidance
suggests that another upper-level Pacific trough could move eastward
this weekend or early next week, potentially bringing additional
rainfall to the area. However, the models are currently not in
agreement on the timing and progression of this system, so there is
considerable uncertainty with the forecast. More progressive models
are suggesting cooler forecast with better chances for rain, while
models that have the system moving more slowly are proposing a
drier, warmer forecast. The forecast will continue to be updated
throughout the week as more guidance comes in.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 547 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025
VFR conditions are forecast for the local area terminals through
late evening. Then, MVFR and IFR conditions are forecast overnight
through mid/late Tuesday morning as low clouds develop across most
of South Central Texas. Southerly winds of 5 to 10 knots are
forecast to prevail through the period. VFR cigs return around 18z
to 19z Tuesday across area airports.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 71 86 69 85 / 10 10 10 40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 69 86 67 85 / 10 10 10 40
New Braunfels Muni Airport 68 86 67 86 / 10 10 10 40
Burnet Muni Airport 68 82 66 81 / 0 10 10 40
Del Rio Intl Airport 67 84 68 81 / 0 10 10 50
Georgetown Muni Airport 69 84 66 84 / 10 10 10 40
Hondo Muni Airport 67 85 67 86 / 10 10 20 40
San Marcos Muni Airport 68 86 66 86 / 10 10 10 40
La Grange - Fayette Regional 68 87 67 85 / 10 10 10 40
San Antonio Intl Airport 70 85 69 85 / 10 10 20 40
Stinson Muni Airport 70 86 70 86 / 10 10 20 40
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...17
No recent Short Term Forecast (NOW) has been issued for NWS Austin/San Antonio CWA (EWX).
Special Weather Statement Issued: 11/16/2025 08:06:00 PM UTC
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