National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Frigid Cold in the East; Snow Continues in the Great Lakes

A frigid cold airmass will continue to bring colder weather across the eastern two thirds of the country early this week. Record low temperatures are expected to be tied or broken across the Southeast and Florida. Periods snow will continue downwind of the Great Lakes and in portions of interior New England through Tuesday afternoon, with several inches of snowfall accumulation expected. Read More >

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532
FXUS64 KEWX 121149
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
549 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much warmer rest of this week through this weekend into next
  week.

- Trending drier this weekend into early next week, then possibly
  wetter middle to late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 1201 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

After a chilly start to this week, southerly flow has returned and
will bring a warming trend back to above average temperatures as
lower level thermal ridging and warm/dry upper level ridging build
over our area. In addition, increasing lower level moisture allows
humidities to recover which should mitigate fire weather concerns.
Low clouds return tonight, then mix to sunshine Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1201 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Moderate southerly lower flow and stout lower level thermal ridge
underneath the upper level ridge maintain the well above average
temperatures through the weekend. Due to subsidence from the upper
ridge overhead, have removed POPs from Saturday afternoon through
Sunday evening. Models are now in better agreement in taking the
advertised upper level trough well north of our area on Monday. A
brief incursion of a weak Pacific front into the Edwards Plateau,
Hill Country, and Rio Grande Plains is expected Monday afternoon
into evening. Forcing by these features is weak, though strong
enough for isolated showers over the eastern Hill Country to along
and east of I-35 on Monday. Have capped POPs at 20s for Monday.
Models continue uncertainty for middle to late next week due to the
disagreement on passages of an upper level trough and surface cold
front. For now, will maintain the blended guidances, though expect
them to change with time should models get in better agreement and
consistency.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

VFR conditions today. A shallow moisture return today and tonight
will lead to the develop of low stratus overnight and into
Thursday morning along the escarpment near SAT, as well as north
and west into the Hill Country and near the Rio Grande. East of
I-35, patchy fog development is indicated early Thursday morning.
SE to SW winds around 5 KT or less early this morning, increasing
to 8-15 KT this afternoon across the Hill Country and along and
east of the I-35 corridor.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1201 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

After elevated to critical fire weather conditions of the last three
days, a moderate southerly lower level flow has resumed to bring
increasing moisture. Minimum humidities will recover to above 20-25%
on Wednesday, then above 35-40% for Thursday through this weekend.
This should mitigate fire weather conditions. However, with drier
fuels lingering, they may remain elevated due to gusty afternoon
winds. The last few weeks has seen some fires spread in spite of
higher humidities. Although, minimum humidities fall again into the
20-30% range on Monday across Val Verde County, winds will be less
than 10 mph to keep fire weather conditions only elevated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              82  60  84  62 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  82  58  84  61 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     82  57  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            79  58  81  60 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           81  53  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        81  59  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             82  55  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        83  58  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   82  59  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       82  60  84  62 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           83  60  85  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...76



                

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