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Forecast Discussion

                        
643
FXUS64 KEWX 092312
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
512 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog east of I-35 tonight; will monitor for dense fog in
  the coastal plains.

- Dry weather with above normal temperatures through Saturday. A
  cold front Sunday brings at or below normal temperatures through
  Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1144 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Southerly winds are in place and will continue through tonight.
This will keep overnight lows above freezing across south central
Texas, with upper 30s to upper 40s in the forecast. South to
southwest winds early Wednesday will become northerly as a cold
front moves southward. Given the speed of the front, we have opted
to decrease high temperatures over the NBM for the southern
Edwards Plateau, Hill Country and nearby I-35 corridor north of
Austin. Highs in the mentioned areas will range from the mid 60s
to near 70 degrees. Farther south, we will show warmer highs,
mainly in the 70s. The front will bring some cooler and drier air
to the region, so look for lows Wednesday night/Thursday morning
in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1144 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Southerly flow in the lower levels returns to all areas Thursday
afternoon and will continue through Saturday. We expect to see
above normal temperatures through this period along with continued
dry conditions. Some of the models do show a weak front making a
brief southward push into the Edwards Plateau early Saturday
morning. We will continue to watch future model data, but suspect
we will not see much of an impact from this front. A much stronger
front is expected to move in Sunday morning and based on the good
agreement among the operational models, we have lowered Sunday`s high
temperature over the current NBM. Just ahead of this front, we
could see some weak forcing to result in an isolated shower or two
across the Rio Grande plains south of Del Rio. We may need to
expand rain chances into the coastal plains as well, but with low
confidence that far out, will not add any mention to the forecast
just yet. Cloud cover will also be on the increase for the start
of next week as warm air advection just above the shallow, cold
air near the surface develops.

There is quite a bit of disagreement in the models regarding the
flow aloft and timing of shortwaves as we head into early next
week. This could bring some low rain chances to areas along and
east of I-35. For now, confidence is low and will only mention a
20% chance for rain at this time. Persistent cloud cover will keep
daytime highs at or just below normal, with overnight lows above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 510 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

High pressure will remain in control for the upcoming TAF period.
Skies will be mostly clear. Winds will be light through the
evening and overnight. A cold front will move through the area
Wednesday bringing northerly to northwesterly winds around 10 kts
during the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              48  71  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  45  71  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     44  72  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            46  67  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           44  76  45  72 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        47  68  40  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             41  75  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        44  72  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   46  71  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       46  74  47  69 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           44  76  47  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM....27
AVIATION...05