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FXUS64 KEWX 020751

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
151 AM CST Sat Mar 2 2024


(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 150 AM CST Sat Mar 2 2024

A weak southerly flow at the surface will allow a return of moisture
to areas mainly along and east of I-35 early this morning. It will
be shallow with a dry westerly flow above 900 MB. Nonetheless, low
clouds and patchy, some dense, fog can be expected across those
areas. Being shallow, it should erode late morning to midday hours.
Well above normal high temperatures can be expected.

Relative humidities fall into the upper teens to around 20 percent
across Val Verde and Edwards counties, and 20 to 25 percent across
the remainder of the Rio Grande and northwestern portions of the
Hill Country this afternoon. However, winds will be 10 mph or less
precluding any fire weather concerns.

A shortwave rotates through an upper level trough over the
northwestern states tonight into Sunday. This induces surface
pressure falls in the Plains deepening the southerly lower level
flow. This leads to low clouds and patchy, some dense, fog returning
to most of our area tonight into early Sunday morning. Well above
normal low temperatures can be expected. With the lower level
moisture deepening, low clouds will linger longer into the day on
Sunday causing lower, though still above normal, high temperatures.
Cannot rule out some patchy drizzle in the morning.


(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 150 AM CST Sat Mar 2 2024

Saturated conditions are expected in the low levels Monday morning,
which will lead to cloudy conditions to start the day and likely
areas of fog and/or drizzle as well. The cloud cover will burn off
some through the morning and early afternoon, with temperatures
likely still reaching the upper 70s to low 80s for highs. Also
throughout the day, eyes will be on two main features, a dryline
moving into the Edwards Plateau and a shortwave moving across the
region aloft. Aside from any morning drizzle, one or both of these
features will provide the best chances for rain during the day with
some activity possibly lingering into the overnight hours across the
east. A capping inversion just above the surface will likely have to
be overcome for any convection to develop, though the dryline may be
able to help with this, especially for western areas. *If* all the
ingredients are able to come together at the right time, forecasted
shear and CAPE values would support a marginal severe threat, but
chances for rain in general remain mostly at or below 30% for the
time being.

Not much has changed for the Tuesday-Wednesday period, with
indications being a weak cold front will likely stall near or just
north of the CWA. Assuming it doesn`t make it, this period will
likely remain dry in the absence of any other substantial forcing.
The NBM is maintaining some very low PoPs (<=20%) across northern
portions of the area on Wednesday in the event the stalled boundary
lingers and another weak impulse/shortwave aloft can help spark some
activity which seems reasonable enough to keep in the forecast at
this point.

The Thursday-Friday period is shaping up to potentially be the best
opportunity for rain across the area as the GFS and Euro are coming
into better agreement that a large west coast trough will push into
the region. Details regarding QPF amounts and placement will still
need to be ironed out, but eastern areas will likely be favored.
Temperatures should cool some heading into next weekend behind the
front associated with this system.


(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1019 PM CST Fri Mar 1 2024

VFR conditions are prevailing across South-Central Texas this evening
with light southerly flow in place. Low-level moisture continues to
increase and this should lead to possible IFR ceilings and perhaps
LIFR ceilings or visibility restrictions by morning for the I35
sites. Can`t completely rule out some periods of dense fog around
daybreak. Any restrictions will dissipate by 16z tomorrow with VFR
then prevailing once again. Another round of restrictions is expected
tomorrow night.


Austin Camp Mabry 81 59 78 64 / 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 80 58 79 64 / 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 79 58 79 64 / 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 83 57 78 62 / 0 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 87 59 78 60 / 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 82 59 79 64 / 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 83 56 79 63 / 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 79 58 78 63 / 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 78 59 78 64 / 0 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 80 59 78 65 / 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 81 59 79 65 / 0 0 0 0





Zone Forecasts

Special Statements

  • No recent Short Term Forecast (NOW) has been issued for NWS Austin/San Antonio CWA (EWX).

  • Special Weather Statement  Issued: 02/26/2024 04:17:05 AM CST

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