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000
FXUS64 KEWX 281116
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
616 AM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the period with clear skies.
Winds have weakened across the area tonight, but are expected to pick
back up out of the northwest this morning as temperatures warm.
Speeds will be highest near AUS with speeds in the 20G30 knot range.
Otherwise, no major impacts are expected this TAF package.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 AM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021/
SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
Clear skies prevail across the area tonight as much drier air has
moved into the region behind yesterday`s cold front. With nocturnal
decoupling, winds have weakened to near 5-7 mph across much of the
area and with dewpoints in the 30s and 40s, temperatures have fallen
into the middle to upper 50s. Should see lows by morning in the
lower 50s across the area. Even though winds are light at the
surface overnight, winds at 850 mb remain out of the northwest with
speeds ranging from 25 knots in the west to 45-50 knots in the
northeast CWA. As soon as the boundary layer starts to mix later
this morning, surface winds should quickly pick back up. Winds will
be strongest in the northeast CWA where the stronger winds at 850 mb
are located. Should see 20-30 mph sustained speeds with gusts likely
in excess of 40 mph this afternoon. A Wind Advisory is in effect for
locations northeast of a Llano to Austin to Hallettsville line and
see no reason for any changes to the advisory at this time. In
addition to the breezy northwesterly flow, afternoon humidity values
will range from 12-20 percent across the Rio Grande Plains to 20-28%
for the remainder of the area. The driest air does not coincide with
the strongest winds and will just mention elevated to near critical
fire weather conditions for the entire area in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook.
For tonight, winds should weaken a bit once the boundary layer
decouples with the loss of daytime heating. Low temperatures tonight
should be in the middle 40s to lower 50s. For tomorrow, surface
winds will be breezy once again, but likely not as strong as today
and all areas should stay below Wind Advisory Criteria. Humidity
values will stay in the 14-28 percent range and will lead to another
day of elevated fire weather condition for most locations. Models
are showing the wind direction becoming more northerly tomorrow vs
northwesterly which should lead to a slightly better component for
cold air advection. Guidance is picking up on this and progging
highs in the lower 70s to near 80 degrees or about 2-5 degrees
cooler than today for most areas.
LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Surface high pressure will settle in over the Rio Grande Plains on
Friday night, allowing for good radiational cooling as winds drop to
less than 5 mph and skies remain clear. Expect temperatures to
respond accordingly, falling into the 40s for most of the CWA, with
the main exception being out over the the Rio Grande where temps drop
to about 50. The sfc high will slide eastward on Saturday afternoon,
allowing return flow to begin. Moisture will be slow to return on the
back of south-southeasterly flow. Sunshine and seasonable
temperatures can be expected this weekend, which will be welcome news
for trick-or-treaters and any Halloween-related activities planned
for the weekend. Expect temperatures in the
As we turn the calendar over to the month of November, the forecast
becomes a bit trickier, as a lack of agreement between the trio of
global models shows up for much of next week. The main headline next
week will likely be the passage of yet another strong cold front,
with this front having more Polar origins, rather than Pacific
origins, like our previous front. The main question will be, when
exactly will this next front push through? The 00Z GFS continues to
be the fastest and strongest solution, with the front pushing all the
way through South-Central Texas by Tuesday afternoon, along with
showers and thunderstorms moving in along and behind the front
through mid to late week. Meanwhile, the ECM/CMC remain slower with
the timing, bringing the front through on Wednesday afternoon. Both
the ECM and CMC are weaker with the shortwave rounding the base of a
long wave trough over the Northern Plains, resulting in the front
getting held up/stalled out over north Texas on Tuesday. A secondary
shortwave dives south from Montana into west Texas on Wednesday,
acting as the driving force to move the front all the way to the
coast on Wednesday. The GFS on the otherhand is much stronger with
the initial 500mb shortwave, so frontal passage is sooner. The GFS
has been outperforming both the ECM/CMC on a routine basis lately,
so I would tend to lean more in that direction, but will continue
with a bit of a blend at this point in time. No matter what happens,
much cooler air should filter in behind the front along with
scattered showers and storms. Have kept PoPs at 20-30% through late
week, but if better agreement is noted between global models, those
numbers could certainly be increased. We should get a true Fall feel
once this front moves through, with highs in the 60s by late week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 76 52 72 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 76 48 73 43 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 79 48 75 44 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 74 46 71 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 82 52 81 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 75 48 71 43 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 81 46 79 44 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 77 47 73 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 78 51 73 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 78 51 74 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 82 51 78 48 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for
Bastrop-Burnet-Fayette-Lavaca-Lee-Llano-Travis-Williamson.
&&
$$
Short-Term/Aviation...Hampshire
Long-Term...Morris
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