A storm system stretching from the Tennessee Valley to the Gulf Coast will bring a variety of hazards to the Eastern U.S. through Tuesday. On the south side of the system, heavy rain and thunderstorms will persist across the Southern U.S. Further north, a wintry precipitation mix is expected from the Central Appalachians to the interior Northeast through Tuesday. Read More >
662
FXUS64 KEWX 012329 AAA
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
529 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Wind chills in the mid 20s and low 30s Tuesday morning for most
of South-Central Texas outside of the Rio Grande Plains.
- Medium to high chances (50 to 80 percent) of a freeze Tuesday
morning for portions of the I-35 corridor north of the Austin
area and portions of the Hill Country with 29 to 32 degree
temperatures.
- Drier weather Tuesday and Wednesday followed by increasing rain
chances Thursday and Friday. Cool weather continues through the
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1210 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
Cloudy skies continue over most of the area, particularly east of
the Edwards Plateau, as isentropic lift spreads moisture aloft
north of a coastal low now receding from the Texas coast. Rainfall
has been generally sprinkly and should stay that way as the
elevated convergence band associated with the coastal low has
remained just out of our CWA. The cloudmass and its rains should
shift east and vacate most of the area in the evening and
overnight.
A west-to-east drying trend is beginning as a shortwave trough
passes to the north, bringing a westerly flow aloft that is helping
to clear out cloud cover. This trend should continue tonight while
surface high pressure moves south and brings a shot of reinforcing
cold with a slight uptick in north winds, especially over the
Coastal Plains where gusts up to around 20-25 mph are forecast this
evening into early Tuesday morning. Cloud coverage has trended
downward for tonight with a trailing mid-level vorticity maximum
looking less robust, and this should allow for a more efficient
combination of both cold air advection and radiational cooling. A
light freeze is anticipated for portions of the Hill Country and
areas north of Austin with the best chances (a 50 to 80 percent
chance) for Burnet, Gillespie, Llano, and western Williamson
counties. The coldest lows are forecast to mostly be in the 30 to 32
degree range with a few colder spots making it into the upper 20s.
Lows in the mid 30s to low 40s are forecast for the remainder of
South-Central Texas. With the northerly wind, wind chills ranging
from the mid 20s to low 30s are forecast for much of South-Central
Texas aside from the Rio Grande Plains, most prominently right
around sunrise.
Mostly sunny weather is expected Tuesday as the area briefly finds
itself under zonal flow aloft. Despite the sunshine, the lack of
warmer air aloft suggests temperatures may only mix into the upper
50s and low 60s. Tuesday night should be another cool night, though
gradual airmass modification and the return of southerly winds and
clouds leads to forecast lows in the upper 30s to low 40s with
very low chances (less than 10 percent) of freezing.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1210 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
Southerly flow is expected to strengthen in response to an
amplifying trough over the western US on Wednesday as the
subtropical and southern branch polar jet begin to phase over the
central US. This should make Wednesday the warmest day of the week,
though the day is still forecast to remain seasonable with highs in
the mid 60s to low 70s.
Although the orientation of the jet stream over our area midweek
would typically discourage cold air intrusions, a cold airmass drawn
southward by a brief window of meridional flow over the Canadian
Shield is expected to carry enough momentum to make it into our
area. Models have come into better agreement in depicting the cold
front at the leading edge of this airmass reaching South-Central
Texas around Wednesday night to Thursday morning. The front is less
likely to be as dramatic as the one from this past Sunday, but is
forecast to maintain the cool fall weather to end the workweek with
highs generally in the 50s to low 60s and lows in the mid 30s to
low 40s for most.
Concurrent with the front, divergence should increase across the
area Thursday to Friday with opportunities for upper-air
disturbances rippling along the overhead jet stream. While this
generally leads to an increase in rain chances, the frontal timing
will likely be pivotal... a faster front could end up muting rain
intensities and coverage for much of the region by maintaining a
drier layer of near-surface air. There is also considerable
uncertainty of whether a cut-off low over the Pacific gets pulled
into the region, which would affect moisture levels. For now, medium
chances (30 to 60 percent) are carried for South-Central Texas
Thursday/Friday, with better chances over the Coastal Plains.
The longwave synoptic pattern dominating CONUS for the week starts
to shift a little more to the east over the weekend into next week.
A slight warming trend is possible this weekend as zonal flow
briefly reestablishes, but the northwesterly flow on the rear side
of the longwave trough could set up an additional opportunity for
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025
MVFR ceilings should finally give way to VFR conditions after 10pm
this evening at AUS, SAT, and SSF, but a scattered layer will
remain through the forecast period. Winds will swing around from
the ENE followed by an eventual return to southeasterly flow by
late tomorrow evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 35 58 42 67 / 0 0 0 10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 35 58 38 65 / 0 0 0 10
New Braunfels Muni Airport 36 58 40 65 / 0 0 0 10
Burnet Muni Airport 32 56 41 68 / 0 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 42 64 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 33 57 39 70 / 0 0 0 10
Hondo Muni Airport 36 61 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 34 59 39 66 / 0 0 0 10
La Grange - Fayette Regional 35 56 39 64 / 10 0 0 20
San Antonio Intl Airport 37 60 43 66 / 0 0 0 10
Stinson Muni Airport 38 60 43 66 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CST Tuesday for TXZ172-173.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Tran
LONG TERM....Tran
AVIATION...MMM
No recent Short Term Forecast (NOW) has been issued for NWS Austin/San Antonio CWA (EWX).
Special Weather Statement Issued: 11/25/2025 11:24:00 AM UTC
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