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000
FXUS64 KEWX 231106
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
606 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023
Low clouds will fill in across the entirety of south-central Texas
tonight with some patchy drizzle through sunrise, mainly over the
Hill Country and portions of the I-35 corridor. Shortly after
midnight, the majority of locations were still seeing temperatures
in the 70s, with little cooling through the overnight hours due to
overcast skies. Southerly wind increases in the east today ahead of
a strengthening surface low in western Texas. Mixing should help
erode cloud cover around the noon hour with most locations seeing
some sunshine by this afternoon. Highs will be similar or warmer
than yesterday, especially in the Rio Grande Plains where afternoon
temperatures in the low to mid 90s are anticipated.
A trough located over the southwest CONUS this morning will make its
way towards the southern Plains through the day today with a surface
front expected to move across the area late tonight through the
overnight hours into Friday morning. The previous forecast
discussion still holds true with the front continuing to look less
impressive as we get closer to this event. Isolated severe storms
will still be possible over the southern Edwards Plateau, possibly
into the northwest Hill Country, but the front looks to quickly
undercut storms as it moves east during the overnight hours. The
best chances for severe storms remains across portions of Val Verde,
Edwards, and Kinney Counties where a level 2 of 5 risk remains when
storms initiate around midnight with hail and damaging wind gusts
the main hazards. Storms look to form a line as they move east into
the Hill Country with rather unimpressive rain amounts as it moves
across the area. Most locations are expected to only see a tenth of
an inch or two through Friday morning, the exception where any
strong storms form. As a final note, some hi-res CAMS are now
keeping most storm development to our north with only some showers
across portions of Hill Country and the northern I-35 corridor, so
this is another possibility.
Showers and storms will be exiting the I-35 corridor around noon on
Friday, with precipitation lingering over the Coastal Plains through
the mid-afternoon hours. Not much cooling behind this front with
highs generally in the 80s Friday afternoon. Gusty northwest winds
are expected across the southern Edwards Plateau during the
afternoon as well with afternoon humidity in the teens. In locations
where no rain falls, some elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions appear possible.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023
Lower humidity will rule from Friday night into early Sunday as a
dry airmass settles across the region following the front early on
Friday. The morning lows start off cooler in the upper 40s across
the Hill Country with low to mid 50s trending elsewhere. With the
abundance of sunshine on Saturday, afternoon highs will be able to
climb into the upper 70s in the Hill Country and into the low to
middle 80s elsewhere. Winds will trend generally of light to
moderate levels from the northwest to west-northwest.
South-southeasterly winds make a return from Saturday night into
Sunday as the front starts to lift northward as a warm front. The
opportunity exists for some isolated showers and perhaps a storm
with some building instability across the coastal plains during
Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. However, the greater ascent
along the northward lifting warm front will occur farther east
across the northern Gulf coast. Elsewhere, expect for increasing
humidity levels with continued warmth with afternoon highs during
Sunday in the low to mid 80s for most.
Some forecast uncertainty continues in regards with the upcoming
front(s) from late Sunday into early next week. The latest medium
range 00Z deterministic guidance shows that a weak front may ooze
across the region during Sunday night into early Monday where the
winds turn more east to northeasterly in direction. Could see some
opportunity for light precipitation with weak isentropic lift as
weak upper level energy aloft moves across the region within the
southwesterly flow aloft. Overall, the rain chances mainly look to
be of around 10 to perhaps 20 percent. Models have also begun to
latch onto a possible reinforcing front moving across the region
into or during the day on Tuesday. This may keep low rain chances
possible within the 10 to 20 percent range. South-southeasterly
winds look to return from Wednesday into Wednesday night.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023
Widespread MVFR ceilings are seen across south-central Texas with
IFR/LIFR ceilings over the southern Edwards Plateau. IFR ceilings
may briefly be seen at DRT from 14-17Z, before returning to MVFR
through 20Z. Southerly wind will increase this morning becoming
gusty at I-35 sites between 16-18Z. These winds will help erode
ceilings with VFR expected at I-35 sites by 17-18Z. Decreasing wind
at I-35 sites this evening as low ceilings are reintroduced to the
eastern half of the area. A cold front will move across the area from
west to east bringing chances for TSRA at DRT after 06Z, and SHRA at
I-35 sites after 12Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 85 67 85 54 / 10 10 50 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 83 67 84 51 / 10 10 50 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 86 67 86 52 / 0 10 40 0
Burnet Muni Airport 82 65 82 51 / 10 40 50 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 87 64 86 53 / 10 30 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 82 68 84 52 / 10 20 60 0
Hondo Muni Airport 88 65 84 51 / 10 20 10 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 85 67 85 51 / 10 10 50 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 83 69 81 53 / 0 10 50 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 86 67 85 54 / 10 10 30 0
Stinson Muni Airport 88 69 88 54 / 10 10 20 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...27
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...27
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