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Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS64 KEWX 231923
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
223 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022
The weak frontal inversion looks to be mixing out without much
fanfare as an unstable warm front. Pockets of differential heating
in areas where the low clouds eroded faster has generated some
isolated showers and a couple thunderstorms over the Winter Gardens
region. Overall the morning forecast package held together nicely
with little or no activity expected for areas east of Hwy 281 for
the early afternoon.
Late this afternoon, thunderstorms near the Rio Grande and in Mexico
will begin to congeal into a strong to severe storm cluster and
eventually an MCS. A few discrete severe storm cells may still form
out in front of the developing complex activity, but Convective
Allowing models are showing predominantly organized activity by late
evening. Boundary interactions as cells merge this evening could
lead to a brief tornado, but our primary concerns continue to be
about hail, winds, and torrential rainfall. Model trends for tonight
have eased off some of the higher rainfall totals reaching Central
TX, instead putting more emphasis on the Rio Grande Plains and later
into the Coastal Prairies. Some models show a relative void over
parts of the Hill Country while other delay activity and show
secondary cluster to break out early Tuesday. This leaves our timing
confidence fairly poor for some areas and above average for others.
Chances are, with the amount of dynamics and moist air in place, if
there are areas that miss out on tonights high chances somehow,
might be first in line for when the air become unstable during the
day Tuesday. It`s also possible these storms could still encompass
the entire forecast area and leave a more stable picture for daytime
Tuesday.
Tuesday night will look to again show a more concise picture as the
final cold front from this troughing pattern arrives into Central
TX. Model trends show the front to be relatively slow to clear the
area, and have generated increasing amounts of QPF for Tuesday night
into mid-morning Wednesday. This leaves us revising our storm totals
upward although the signal for lower QPF for tonight into early
Tuesday as set forth on the early morning shift is still valid.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022
The long term forecast begins with complex of storms Wednesday
morning likely ongoing across the central and eastern CWA. Some
pockets of locally heavy rainfall are likely. As mentioned in the
short term forecast, confidence has increased in higher QPF amounts
for tomorrow night (and now into Wednesday morning). Storm total
rainfall amounts tonight through Wednesday look to average 1 to 2
along the Rio Grande and inches and 2 to 4 inches elsewhere, with
higher pockets of 6 inches possible.
The base of the upper level trough axis moves east Wednesday night
into Thursday morning with clearing taking place. Precipitation
chances look to quickly end Wednesday evening across the southeast
CWA.
The forecast Thursday through the weekend looks to remain dry with a
warming trend taking place. High temperatures back into the 90s are
forecast over the weekend to around 100 along the Rio Grande.
Southerly winds also look to increase over the weekend and into
early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022
An MCS dominated environment will make for a low confidence 18Z
forecast package. The consensus of finer resolution models keep with
the primary MCS activity to not stray far from the sharp shortwave
kink that should keep the most active storm hours at DRT to be in the
23Z to 03Z window, and the I-35 terminals peaking in the 05Z to 10Z
timeframe. However several model solutions break the MCS activity
into separate fragments, with varying onset times. Thus will stick
with the consensus that has a pretty good match with what the GFS has
depicted for several runs. Mainly MVFR cigs should precede the storm
arrival, and some near-storm environment clouds could drop to IFR
with an even lower category possible on the vsbys near the rain
shafts. Late periods were glossed over for after 12Z Tuesday, but
there will likely be a need to add the potential for daytime
convection in future updates.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 69 81 66 76 / 70 70 80 80
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 69 81 66 76 / 70 80 80 80
New Braunfels Muni Airport 68 84 67 78 / 70 60 80 80
Burnet Muni Airport 68 82 63 77 / 80 60 90 60
Del Rio Intl Airport 68 91 68 86 / 70 20 40 30
Georgetown Muni Airport 68 81 64 77 / 70 70 90 70
Hondo Muni Airport 68 86 67 81 / 80 40 60 60
San Marcos Muni Airport 68 82 66 77 / 70 70 80 80
La Grange - Fayette Regional 71 84 68 78 / 70 80 80 90
San Antonio Intl Airport 68 82 67 77 / 70 50 80 70
Stinson Muni Airport 70 87 70 82 / 70 50 70 70
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...Oaks
Long-Term...76
Aviation...Oaks
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