An atmospheric river will continue to bring gusty winds, moderate to heavy rainfall, and potential flooding to southern California and the southern Great Basin through Sunday. Periods of heavy snow will continue as well above 7,000 feet over the Sierra Nevada mountains associated with this atmospheric river. Read More >
409
FXUS64 KEWX 161111
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
511 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Low stratus and patchy fog possible over the next few mornings
- Above average warmth continues early to midweek; daily record
highs possible, especially today
- Mid to late week storm system brings returning rain and storm
chances with the opportunity for strong storms and locally heavy
rainfall
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1206 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025
An abnormally warm and muggy airmass continues across the region
with the persistent southerly low-level flow despite the gradual
weakening of the 500 mb heights and a transition to more of a
southwesterly flow aloft. The afternoon highs will climb into the
mid to upper 80s for the majority with a few isolated locations
reaching the 90 degree mark. Record daily highs could be again
threatened, especially today, when the records are lower in
comparison to the daily records for Monday. The morning lows for
this morning trend in the low to mid 60s along and east of the
Balcones Escarpment while mid to upper 50s trend elsewhere. The
overnight lows look to trend a little warmer into Monday morning
with 60s generally area wide. Late overnight into each morning
contends with the development of a low stratus deck and the
formation of some patchy to areas of fog. Areas along and to the
south of the I-10 corridor are most favored for fog development
during each morning. Low clouds and fog erode into mid to late
morning, and results in mostly clear skies from the afternoon
through the evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1206 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025
The warm and humid air maintains at least into Wednesday in the
advance of the next upper level system and weather maker that is
expected to slowly evolve across the Desert Southwest before it
eventually advances eastward. While run to run consistency has
improved over the past 24 hours, there are still some notable
differences on the timing, and placement of the system within the
medium range guidance. Details should iron out through the next
several days. Nonetheless, the southerly low-level flow should
increase from Tuesday entering Wednesday and this helps for the
moisture column to gradually deepen. This could allow for the
opportunity for morning drizzle and some stray low topped shower
activity with warm air advection. Rain and storm chances then
increase from Wednesday into Wednesday night with the arrival of
greater ascent with any embedded energy with the strengthening
southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the main parent low. Enough
instability and shear could overlap to monitor for strong storm
potential on Wednesday but model sounding analysis does indicate
capping at around the 700 mb level, which may limit this threat
until the best forcing arrives, which is highlighted below.
Guidance continues to trend towards the highest rain and storm
chances (50 to 80%) occurring Thursday with the parent upper low
moving across the Four Corners and dragging a vort max that may
become negatively tilted across the region, in addition to the
front. This coupled with the overlap of deep layer shear and
instability may result in some organized convection immediately
along and ahead of the front. This could yield to some strong to
severe storms and locally heavy rainfall. As mentioned with the
previous discussions, the largest footprint for heavy rainfall
within the ensemble means focuses from North Texas into Eastern
Oklahoma and Arkansas. Anticipate for the rain chance to drop off
once the front slides through but uncertainties grow during the
weekend pending a possible secondary system, where the NBM has
included some low end (15 to 25%) chances.
Thursday sees a dip in temperatures initially thanks to the area
rains and cloud cover. However, once the front slides across, a
slightly cooler post-frontal airmass unfolds with daytime high
temperatures generally in the upper 60s to 70s and overnight low
temperatures into the 40s and low 50s. A secondary system this
weekend as highlighted in the previous paragraph does provide
uncertainties, however, regarding these temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 509 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025
Low stratus and areas of fog have developed from the Hill Country
eastward impacting I-35 terminals this morning. Latest guidance
suggests AUS will remain with MVFR ceilings while SAT/SSF fall as
low as IFR/LIFR. Additionally, MVFR to IFR visibility is forecast to
impact SAT/SSF through the next couple of hours. Low stratus and any
fog will improve late morning with VFR conditions returning through
Sunday night before redeveloping early Monday morning. Winds Sunday
will primarily be from the south to southwest under 10 knots. DRT
remains VFR through the period.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1227 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025
Record High Temperatures
Day Sun Mon Tue
Date 11/16 11/17 11/18
AUS 87/2016 89/2013 84/2017
ATT 87/1938 90/2013 85/1921&1986
SAT 86/1938 89/2013 88/1986&2017
DRT 89/1938 91/190687/1986
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 88 67 87 70 / 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 88 66 87 68 / 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 87 66 87 68 / 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 87 65 85 67 / 0 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 89 62 88 66 / 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 88 66 86 68 / 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 88 64 87 66 / 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 88 65 87 68 / 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 88 67 87 67 / 0 0 10 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 87 67 86 69 / 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 87 67 87 70 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...27
No recent Short Term Forecast (NOW) has been issued for NWS Austin/San Antonio CWA (EWX).
Special Weather Statement Issued: 11/16/2025 08:06:00 PM UTC
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