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Forecast Discussion

                        
392
FXUS64 KEWX 221835
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1235 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Locally heavy rain is possible Sunday night into Monday, with
  higher chances across the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill
  Country.

- Fall like temperatures for Thanksgiving.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1235 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

There is a deep upper level low moving onto the Baja Peninsula
from the Pacific with a low amplitude ridge extending from the
Gulf to southern Colorado. The flow over Texas is turning from the
southwest to west. At the surface, the front that moved through
South-Central Texas yesterday is stalled near the coast. The winds
behind the front are mainly light from the northeast over our
eastern counties turning to the southeast near the Rio Grande. A
drier airmass has moved in with dewpoint temperatures 10-20
degrees lower than 24 hours ago.

The upper low will move toward the northeast to the Four Corners
region and then the central plains by Monday morning. The low
level flow will become southeasterly bringing the frontal boundary
back northward as a warm front. This boundary will move across
northern Mexico into the Rio Grande region bringing a chance for
showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight. Rain chances will
begin over the southwestern counties and spread northeastward
through the night. The warm front will move slowly toward the east
during the day Sunday spreading rain chances to the central part
of the CWA. Sunday night another Pacific cold front will move into
West Texas pushing into our western area by Monday morning. This
will bring a better chance for rain to most of the CWA. PW will
still be moderate as will rainfall totals. There is some chance
that a few storms could be strong to severe, but our confidence is
low.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1235 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

The cold front will push through our CWA during the day Monday.
The PW will be bit higher and there may be some locally heavy
rain, but our confidence in this is also low. The best chances for
more significant rain look to be farther north. The front will
move away Monday night/Tuesday and there may be some lingering
showers over the east Monday night. This front will stall near the
coast and there will be a slight chance for showers along our
southern border Tuesday and Tuesday night. Behind the front we
should see some real fall-like weather. Cooler, drier air will
move in for the second half of the week. High temperatures will be
in the 60s and 70s, and lows will be in the 30s and 40s. Some of
the more favored locations could see a brief freeze Thanksgiving
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Primary change was to introduce MVFR ceilings at SAT and SSF after
12Z tomorrow as low clouds increase ahead of the next storms system.
Showers develop at DRT by 12Z Sunday but will not arrive at the I-35
sites until later Sunday. Confidence is still too low to include
mention in TAFs at AUS, SAT, or SSF. Winds will remain ENE through
the period, then steadily shift to more easterly and ESE by Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              54  74  66  79 /   0  10  40  90
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  51  75  65  79 /   0  10  40  90
New Braunfels Muni Airport     55  75  65  80 /  10  10  30  70
Burnet Muni Airport            51  69  62  74 /   0  20  60  90
Del Rio Intl Airport           61  71  64  81 /  30  60  50  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        48  71  62  77 /   0  20  50  90
Hondo Muni Airport             59  73  64  79 /  20  30  40  70
San Marcos Muni Airport        54  75  64  81 /   0  10  40  80
La Grange - Fayette Regional   53  77  65  82 /   0  10  20  80
San Antonio Intl Airport       59  74  67  79 /  10  20  40  70
Stinson Muni Airport           60  76  68  81 /  10  20  30  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...MMM