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000
FXUS64 KEWX 021133
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
533 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 233 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2022
Most of the area is experiencing a cloudy, foggy, and possibly
drizzly/rainy overnight period. Observations early this morning
indicate the lowest visibility over the southern Edwards Plateau,
with patchy fog expected to spread east towards areas along the I-35
corridor. Along with this, reports of drizzle or light rain are also
noted mainly across the eastern Hill County and the I-35 corridor
with MRMS estimating a few hundredths of precipitation where this is
occurring. HREF probabilities indicate a 20 percent chance for
visibilities less than 1 near the I-35 corridor, but will need to
watch closely early this morning as most models indicate a large drop
in visibility to occur a bit before sunrise.
Southerly flow returns today which will warm things noticeably from
yesterday. Expect temperatures from the mid 60s to mid 70s, although
this may be influenced by how long cloud cover lingers today. Most
models clear things out to the west, but struggle with areas to the
east with some hi-res guidance keeping low clouds through Saturday.
Will begin to see a shallow front working its way across the area
early Saturday morning, slowly moving south across the CWA through
the day. Do think there is a chance for very light, rather
insignificant showers along this feature Saturday morning and added
some low chance PoPs to the Rio Grande Plains and far eastern
Coastal Plains. As mentioned previously, some locations could see
their daily highs in the morning hours with stagnant or falling
temperatures the rest of the day. Temperatures in the north may stay
in the upper 50s with 60s seen for a majority of the area. Some
slightly breezy winds are also expected behind the front which may
make temperatures feel a bit cooler as well.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 233 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2022
A cooler airmass and light to moderate east-northeasterly winds will
persist through Sunday morning following Saturday morning`s front.
Overnight lows will trend in the 40s and 50s as a result. Along the
Rio Grande, light rain showers will be possible with isentropic lift
and slightly warmer temperatures. The front to the south then lifts
northward Sunday night into Monday morning and results in the return
of stronger southerly surface and boundary layer winds. There could
also be just enough lift along the warm front for a slight chance of
a shower along the I-35 corridor into or during Monday morning. The
small rain chance declines into Monday afternoon and temperatures
are expected to trend much warmer into the mid 70s to low 80s.
Early to middle of next week will stay rather warm and humid with
southwesterly winds aloft between ridging over the southern Gulf of
Mexico and troughing across the western CONUS. South-southeasterly
surface winds will persist as well. A front does try to approach
from the north but will likely stall as it enters the Hill Country.
Afternoon highs trend in the 70s to low 80s while the overnight lows
hold mainly in the 60s across the region. With the humid airmass in
place, clouds will remain more common than sunshine and enough lift
and moisture could be in play for the opportunity of some low to
medium chances for showers starting Wednesday.
Shortwave troughing advancing into and across the central plains
could then help to provide a secondary push of the stalled front to
our north southward into or through the day on Friday. This should
help keep low to medium rain chances in the forecast late in the
period and the opportunity for at least some slightly cooler
temperatures on Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2022
All sites are experiencing LIFR ceilings early this morning due to
low ceilings. Fog and -RA has also developed at I-35 sites, although
visibilities should remain around 1 mile or more. Extended the
amount of time for these LIFR conditions to around 17-18Z, although
cloud cover for I-35 sites is expected to linger through the day.
Could see prolonged MVFR conditions at I-35 sites though the the
evening with some additional ceilings/fog tomorrow. DRT may break out
of the cloud cover this afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 71 58 62 50 / 10 0 0 10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 72 58 64 48 / 10 0 10 10
New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 61 66 51 / 10 0 10 10
Burnet Muni Airport 72 53 57 45 / 0 0 0 10
Del Rio Intl Airport 71 54 66 56 / 0 0 10 30
Georgetown Muni Airport 72 55 58 46 / 10 0 0 10
Hondo Muni Airport 71 59 69 54 / 0 0 10 10
San Marcos Muni Airport 72 60 66 50 / 10 0 10 10
La Grange - Fayette Regional 74 64 67 52 / 20 0 10 10
San Antonio Intl Airport 71 60 68 52 / 0 0 10 10
Stinson Muni Airport 72 62 69 54 / 0 0 20 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...27
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...27
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