684
FXUS64 KEWX 131024
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
524 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated late afternoon to evening storms over the southern
Edwards Plateau and near the Rio Grande today and Tuesday.
- Warm and humid conditions continue throughout the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
An upper-level shortwave is in the process of moving northeast out
of our area, carving out marginally more stable and drier air behind
it. Precipitable water values are expected to drop from about 1.8
inches to a still moist but more palatable 1.2-1.4 inches. This
should lead to a decrease in shower activity Monday compared to the
past few days, but low-level southerly flow and southwesterly flow
aloft will still support a generally unsettled weather pattern.
Isolated light showers are possible during the late morning hours
over the Coastal Plains before mixing out in the afternoon. Later in
the day, sufficient heating supports an isolated thunderstorm
potential along the dry line over West Texas and Mexico, along with
a marginal risk for mainly large hail. Some of these may drift
towards the Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau near sunset.
However, more stable conditions Monday night should keep these
storms relatively short-lived with most not making it very far into
our area.
Conditions Tuesday support a similar evolution to Monday, with
initiation along the dry line possible later in Tuesday afternoon
over West Texas and the southern Edwards Plateau. The slight
difference is that troughing over the western US will be closer to
the area, driving more forcing for ascent and favoring an uptick in
storm coverage and persistence relative to Monday. Highs both Monday
and Tuesday are forecast to be in the 80s to low 90s, with humid air
prevailing.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
A prominent portion of vorticity on the leading edge of longwave
troughing over the western US is forecast to move across the Central
and Southern Plains Wednesday into Thursday. The approach of this
disturbance is forecast to increase moisture advection into our area
with an accompanying increase in rain and storm chances. The favored
area for storm development is focused north of our region, but
medium range models show extension of potentially a broken line of
storms extending to areas north of the I-10 corridor sometime late
Wednesday into early Thursday. Isolated threats for severe weather
and excessive rainfall are possible with this activity.
While the overall pattern of southwesterly flow continues after this
midweek action, brief upper-level ridging in its wake looks to
provide a brief window of respite from the active weather on
Thursday, with slightly drier air aloft. Towards the end of the
week, as the broad western US trough slides farther east, ensembles
are in agreement that a decently strong mid-April cold front will
approach South-Central Texas Saturday into Sunday. Rain and
thunderstorms are probable on this front, but it is too early to
gauge the severe weather and heavy rain risk. A period of below-
average temperatures is possible behind the front with air spilling
south from the Rockies, switching up the airmass over South-Central
Texas to a drier and cooler one.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 504 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Low end MVFR conditions are holding for KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF as of
this writing. However, still thinking that cigs could lower a bit
to IFR category for a few hours after day break. Therefore,
keeping the current TAF forecast into the 12Z aviation package.
Cigs to lift into VFR conditions by 20Z. Southeast to south wind
flow is forecast to prevail through the forecast period. Late this
afternoon into the evening, storms are forecast to develop ahead
of the dryline over west Texas and push into Del Rio area. A
PROB30 has been introduced to account for this potential from 03Z
to 06Z Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 84 69 84 68 / 20 10 10 10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 84 67 84 68 / 20 10 10 10
New Braunfels Muni Airport 84 68 84 68 / 20 10 10 10
Burnet Muni Airport 83 67 81 67 / 10 10 20 20
Del Rio Intl Airport 88 70 84 69 / 10 30 40 40
Georgetown Muni Airport 83 67 82 67 / 10 10 10 10
Hondo Muni Airport 85 66 84 66 / 20 10 20 20
San Marcos Muni Airport 85 68 84 68 / 20 10 10 10
La Grange - Fayette Regional 85 69 85 68 / 20 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 85 69 84 69 / 20 10 20 10
Stinson Muni Airport 85 69 85 69 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Tran
LONG TERM....Tran
AVIATION...17
No recent Short Term Forecast (NOW) has been issued for NWS Austin/San Antonio CWA (EWX).
Special Weather Statement Issued: 04/13/2026 09:11:00 AM UTC
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