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Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KEWX 282330

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
530 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2020

VFR flying conditions prevail tonight through Saturday evening, then
MVFR CIGs develop Saturday night. Winds at KAUS, KSAT, KSSF will be
southerly to southwesterly around 5 KTs, then southerly and increase
to 12 to 18 KTs late morning with gusts to 28 KTs possible in the
afternoon. Winds at KDRT will be easterly to southeasterly at 5 to 10
KTs, then southeasterly and increase to 13 to 19 KTs late morning
with gusts to 28 KTs possible in the afternoon.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2020/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
Look for mostly clear skies along with light southerly winds across
south central Texas tonight. We still have plenty of dry air in
place and with little cloud cover, radiational cooling will result
in lows ranging from the mid 30s in the Hill Country to the mid 40s
in the metro areas.

On Saturday, southerly winds will increase, leading to above normal
afternoon temperatures. High temperatures will be in the 70s for
most areas, except for the Hill Country where some upper 60s are
anticipated. With the gusty south winds and only modest increase in
low-level moisture, some elevated fire weather concerns may develop
west of Highway 281. Humidities will be lowest along the Rio Grande
and southern Edwards Plateau.

Southerly winds remain intact Saturday night and we will see a surge
of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico move into the region. With the
southerly winds and moisture, overnight lows will be much warmer,
with readings expected to range from the upper 40s to upper 50s.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
The beginning of the long term forecast will begin dry and warm with
southerly flow at the surface veering to the west/southwest at 850
mb. This will allow high temperatures on Monday and Tuesday to be in
the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s. The beginning
of March will definitely feel like spring across the area.

The forecast for the remainder of the long-term forecast remains
highly uncertain. A trough axis currently west of the Pacific
Northwest is expected to dive south and eventually east into Texas
sometime in the middle part of the week. The GFS weakens the system
as it moves across the region which means a faster movement. This
solution brings a front and rain chances into the area late Monday
night into Tuesday, while the ECMWF is about 18-24 hours with a
deeper and slower progression with the trough axis. The ECMWF
solution would also mean more precip for the area with the deeper
trough and more forcing. The Canadian is more in the middle, but does
support the ECMWF solution, with several of the GEFS members
supporting the slower and wetter solution. Made some edits to the
forecast to decrease PoPs in the Monday night/Tuesday period and
slightly increased PoPs into Tuesday night and Wednesday somewhat.
What this does is show a large portion of the area with a 50 PoP for
3 periods (36 hours), but this is not likely to actually occur. What
will happen, is PoPs in those periods will increase of decrease as
confidence in the timing of the low pressure system increases.

After the trough passes, temperatures will cool off into the upper
60s to 70s with a slow-warm up into Friday. Dry weather is expected
Thursday and Friday.


Austin Camp Mabry 48 72 57 78 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 40 73 56 78 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 43 73 55 78 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 43 71 53 77 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 41 75 52 83 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 44 72 56 77 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 42 74 52 81 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 42 73 55 78 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 43 73 57 77 63 / 0 0 0 - 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 46 73 56 78 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 43 74 56 80 60 / 0 0 0 0 0





Zone Forecasts

Special Statements

  • No recent Short Term Forecast (NOW) has been issued for NWS Austin/San Antonio CWA (EWX).

  • Special Weather Statement  Issued: 02/26/2020 03:34:59 AM CST

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