986
FXUS64 KEWX 210713
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
213 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 120 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025
Key Message:
- Low chance for isolated storms along the southern portion of the
Rio Grande this evening.
- Low chances for isolated storms across the coastal plains
on Thursday afternoon.
Latest satellite pictures show high clouds covering parts of the Rio
Grande, southern Edwards Plateau, and Hill Country. These high
clouds are likely to remain over those areas overnight and
throughout the daytime period on Wednesday. There are low clouds
spreading across the coastal plains overnight and expect that to
continue for most of the day. Today`s highs range from the lower 90s
across the Hill Country to upper 90s along the Rio Grande. Dry
weather conditions are forecasted for today with winds shifting from
the northeast to east and to the southeast and south as surface high
pressure moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
By this evening, a mid level disturbance moving across central
Mexico into South Texas could bring a few storms across the southern
portion of the Rio Grande. Otherwise, increased moisture spreads
across South Central Texas in the evening and throughout the
overnight period with lows in the the 70s for the most part.
After a "cooler" 24 hour period, Thursday`s highs are forecasted to
range from the mid to upper 90s across most areas with 100 to 102
for the Rio Grande. Maximum heat index values run from 100 to 107
areawide. Overall, we are expecting a dry but humid day on Thursday
with a slight chance for thunderstorms across the coastal plains. It
is hard to pinpoint the locations, however, can`t rule out a quick
shower or storm that develops closer to the I-35 corridor based on
ensemble solutions.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 120 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025
A mid-level disturbance could bring some showers or thunderstorms
near South Central Texas Thursday night, with low chances mainly
over the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. Any activity is
forecast to subside overnight as mid-level ridging builds over the
area Friday and Saturday. Dry and hot conditions are forecast for
the first half of the holiday weekend with persistent southerly flow
in place. Temperatures will generally be in the mid to upper 90s
except along the Rio Grande and over the Rio Grande Plains where
temperatures from 100-104 degrees will be common. Heat index values
will be in the triple digits for most locations, but look to stay
below Heat Advisory criteria.
Ridging begins to break down on Sunday as a trough moves over the
western US leaving South Central Texas in a more favorable track for
disturbances to move over our area. Precipitation chances begin
Sunday afternoon and evening, but any shower or storm activity
should be isolated with no large scale forcing. Higher precipitation
chances are seen on Memorial Day as a front moves across the area.
Still some uncertainty on the exact timing of this front but it does
look to come though during the day/evening with locally heavy rain
possible along this feature. Cooler temperatures are expected behind
the front with finally some highs back into the 80s for many
locations.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025
VFR conditions are anticipated for all area terminals through the
forecast period. Light to moderate winds from the northeast and east
are forecasted to dominate overnight through middle of the day on
Wednesday. A southeast to south wind flow is in store for the
afternoon as surface high pressure system moves into the Lower
Mississippi Valley.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 95 73 98 72 / 0 0 0 10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 95 71 99 71 / 0 0 0 10
New Braunfels Muni Airport 95 72 98 71 / 0 0 0 10
Burnet Muni Airport 92 71 96 69 / 0 0 0 10
Del Rio Intl Airport 98 76 102 76 / 0 0 0 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 92 70 97 69 / 0 0 0 10
Hondo Muni Airport 97 72 99 71 / 0 0 0 10
San Marcos Muni Airport 96 72 99 71 / 0 0 0 10
La Grange - Fayette Regional 94 73 97 71 / 0 0 10 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 96 74 99 73 / 0 0 0 10
Stinson Muni Airport 97 75 99 74 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...17
Long-Term...27
Aviation...17
No recent Short Term Forecast (NOW) has been issued for NWS Austin/San Antonio CWA (EWX).
Special Weather Statement Issued: 05/20/2025 07:48:22 PM UTC
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