911
FXUS64 KEWX 242359 AAA
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
659 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 652 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026
- Drier with summer-like temperatures through the weekend.
- A Pacific cold front may bring widespread rain next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026
Upper-air data from the DRT and FWD 12Z soundings show 500mb flow
has become more southwesterly in response to amplified ridging
centered over East Texas. Ridging is dominating the local weather
pattern and will keep rain chances low and temperatures above-normal
to end the week. Convective inhibition remains weak during the
daytime, so a stray shower or two could still materialize this
afternoon but with less coverage and likelihood than the past two
days.
Highs Friday are forecast to reach the 90s. Northeasterly flow
caused by an extension of surface high pressure across the lower
Mississippi Valley will allow drier air aloft to mix down to the
surface Friday afternoon particularly along and east of the
Interstate 35 corridor. Thus, afternoon dew points are projected to
bottom out in the 50s for some of these areas, helping to produce as
close to a dry heat as we`ve had in quite some time. While this
drier air will already be on its way out Friday night due to a
restrengthening of southeasterly flow, lows north of Interstate 10
Friday night into Saturday morning especially in rural areas could
be a few degrees lower than the usual fare we`ve seen, with wider
coverage of lows closer to 70 and spots dipping into the upper 60s
thanks to the fleeting dry air.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026
An upper-level trough currently located over Baja California will
cause the ridge over our region to shift towards South Texas this
weekend. The 250mb ridge axis will still stay over our area, only
pivoting rather than moving away completely, so temperatures will
remain summerlike with rain chances staying low. The drier air from
Friday will be replaced by more humid air over the weekend, causing
heat indices to creep back up into the low 100s by early next week.
Some weak filaments of vorticity are expected to glide along the
northern periphery of the displaced ridge once it shifts far enough
south. Low potential exists for this to produce some isolated
showers or storms over the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country Sunday
and Monday. These disturbances are weak, so subsidence from the
nearby ridge will still tend to prevail and rain chances are 20% or
less.
Sizable changes are afoot in the weather pattern next week. The
major player in this changeup is a strong trough forecast to move
across the western US early next week, with potential phasing of
the polar and subtropical jet streams as it approaches our area.
The strength of this trough will inject a plume of tropical
Pacific moisture into the southwestern US. Ensemble trends over
the past day have also increased the likelihood that moisture from
Hurricane Polo in the Pacific will be incorporated in this spread
of moisture. The primary uncertainty with this trough is timing,
as its evolution over the southwestern US on Tuesday varies widely
across models and is consequential to how quickly it advances
into Texas mid to late next week. A faster trough may be able to
bring deep tropical moisture farther east into South Central
Texas, with increased potential for heavy rains around Wednesday.
A slower trough could cycle out Polo`s moisture to the west, which
could reduce the rainfall potential for our area and delay the
most favorable period for rains later to Friday. In the 00Z
ensemble cluster analysis, the faster/slower trough scenarios were
roughly evenly split between ensemble members. What models do
agree on is that this will be a pronounced trough strong enough to
clear out the ridge, bringing rain chances mid to late next week.
The trough is also strong enough to bring the first noteworthy
cold front of the season, which will likely be a focusing
mechanism for the rain potential should it arrive. The national
blend of models currently has the probability of highs being below
90F Wednesday and Thursday in the 50 to 70 percent range along
and north of I-10. The timing of this front will also depend on
the progression of the trough, though for now it looks the current
window of arrival is between late Tuesday to early Friday based
on the current ensembles.
It`s a little too early to get into specifics regarding rain
amounts. However, any pattern that involves the spread of deep
Pacific moisture, with moisture contributions from a tropical
cyclone, merits attention as a possible heavy rainmaker for South-
Central Texas. For the time being, the main message is that the mid
to late week period next week will likely bring a change in the
weather pattern and the first opportunity for widespread rains this
fall. Stay tuned to the forecast for further updates.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026
A few showers persist across the region this evening and with only
isolated coverage, we will not mention in the latest aviation
forecasts. VFR will persist this evening into early Friday morning
before low cloud development near SAT/SSF westward to DRT brings a
period of MVFR cigs to the mentioned TAF sites. Conditions should
be brief at SAT and SSF, so will continue with the TEMPO groups
12-15Z. Farther west at DRT, we will go with prevailing MVFR
beginning 12Z, with cigs likely to persist through late morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 75 98 72 97 / 10 10 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 98 72 97 / 10 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 97 72 95 / 10 10 10 0
Burnet Muni Airport 72 94 69 93 / 0 10 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 75 97 75 97 / 10 10 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 73 96 71 95 / 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 73 95 72 94 / 10 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 73 98 71 96 / 10 10 10 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 73 98 70 97 / 0 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 76 95 75 94 / 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 76 96 74 95 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...Platt
No recent Short Term Forecast (NOW) has been issued for NWS Austin/San Antonio CWA (EWX).
Special Weather Statement Issued: 09/24/2026 04:40:00 AM UTC
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