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Hot Weather in the West; Heavy Rainfall and Flooding in the Southwest

Hot to extremely hot temperatures are in place much of this week across parts of California and the interior Northwest U.S, with the Pacific Northwest carrying the potential for record-breaking high temperatures. Monsoonal moisture over the Southwest U.S. may lead to heavy rainfall and instances of flash flooding through Wednesday. Read More >

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Forecast Discussion

                        
671
FXUS64 KEWX 021815
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
115 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry weather continues through the work week.

- Rain chances return this weekend and early next week with some
potential for locally heavy rain. Continue to monitor the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...

Dry and warm conditions are forecast in the short term period under
northerly flow aloft. Dry mid-level air continues to filter in from
the north today overspreading the area by Wednesday with weak
northerly flow expected at the surface. Mostly sunny conditions are
expected this afternoon with increased cloud cover tonight into
tomorrow morning associated with some moisture moving over the area
at 700mb. Afternoon highs should top out in the 90s today with lows
from the upper 60s to mid 70s tonight. Lower dewpoints will allow
for cooler low temperatures early Thursday morning from the low 60s
over portions of the the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country
to the low 70s near the Rio Grande.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

Hot and dry conditions continue Thursday and Friday under mid-level
ridging over Texas. Southerly low level wind returns late week with
highs returning into the triple digits for a majority of the area
Thursday with only slightly cooler temperatures Friday due to
increased cloud cover.

A pattern change is in store for the weekend with models showing our
ridging breaking down and a trough moving over the southern Plains
sometime this weekend or early next week. The latest GFS continues
to show the newly formed Tropical Storm Lorena making a turn
northeast Friday into the weekend being ingested into the main flow
and moving over Texas. Other models still bring high precipitable
water values to the area during this time increasing confidence for
rain chances this weekend with the highest chances over South
Central Texas Sunday and Monday. It is still too early to talk about
rainfall amounts, but the potential for heavy rainfall does appear
to be present and will have to closely monitor trends the next few
days. Increased cloud cover and rain chances this weekend into early
next week bring temperatures closer to seasonable levels.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

VFR flying conditions prevail through the period under mostly clear
to partly cloudy skies, with mix of low and mid to high level cloud
cover. The winds continue of around 12 kts or less in the daylight
hours from generally the north-northeast while light and variable
conditions occur from the overnight into the early morning time
frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  97  70 101 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  97  68 100 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72  99  69 102 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            71  92  66  97 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           75  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        71  94  65  99 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             72  98  69 100 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  99  67 102 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   72  96  68  99 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  98  72 100 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           76  99  73 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM...27
AVIATION...62



                

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