An arctic cold front will move through the Great Lakes and Northeast on Thursday, bringing moderate to heavy snow, strong winds, and possible whiteout conditions through Thursday afternoon. A storm system interacting with Gulf moisture will bring moderate to heavy rainfall to the western and central Gulf Coast on Thursday. Isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible. Read More >
482
FXUS64 KEWX 040730
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
130 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
...New FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Morning fog gradually decreases as a cold front brings rain
chances and cooler temperatures to south central Texas today
into Friday morning.
- Drier and warmer this weekend, with a cold front moving in
Sunday afternoon. Temperatures remain a little below normal on
Monday, with a warming trend into the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through tonight)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
Recent observational trends show the fog previously along and east
of the I-35 corridor continues to push westward into the Hill
Country and southern Edwards Plateau. This trend is expected to
continue overnight with fog eventually reaching the Rio Grande
plains. While we can`t rule out some brief, dense fog near the I-35
corridor, suspect with continued light rain and a gradual increase
in northeast winds, any dense fog potential will be localized.
For today, a shallow cold front with warm air advection just above
the cool air at the surface will keep skies cloudy along with a
decent chance for light showers generally along and east of I-35
this morning. An isolated thunderstorm or two could also develop
east of the I-35/I-37 corridors tonight. Farther west, rain chances
will be much lower and limited to the morning hours when the front
moves through. For the afternoon and early evening, we expect to see
a brief decrease in rain chances as the warm air advection pattern
fades. The clouds and rain will keep highs below normal, with lower
50s to lower 60s in the forecast. For Thursday evening into the pre-
dawn hours on Friday, we expect most areas to remain dry. However,
this will change as Friday morning progresses.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
An increase in shortwave activity embedded in the southwest flow
aloft should bring another chance for light rain to most areas
beginning early Friday morning. Rain chances will appear first along
the Rio Grande, then spread eastward through early afternoon.
Rainfall amounts through Friday will be fairly low, with one-tenth
of an inch or less over the Rio Grande plains, southern Edwards
Plateau and most of the Hill Country. Amounts nudge upward to around
one-tenth to one-quarter inch along and east of I-35. There will be
a few higher amounts up to around one-half inch near the coastal
plains. Highs on Friday continue to remain below normal, with 50s
expected for most locations.
A quick warm-up is in store on Saturday as clouds decrease from west
to east allowing highs to warm into the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Another cold front is expected to move in Sunday afternoon leading
to afternoon highs in the 60s for areas mainly north of I-10.
Elsewhere, the late arrival of the front should allow for highs to
peak in the 70s. Surface high pressure remains intact Monday,
keeping highs down in the upper 50s to mid 60s. A ridge of high
pressure building over the eastern Pacific into the desert southwest
will keep our region in a dry and stable northwest flow aloft. With
an active pattern remaining to our north, we will keep the forecast
dry at this time. Temperatures should remain above normal, but will
keep an eye out for an occasional cold front temporarily disrupting
the warming trend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
Soupy conditions along I-35 will probably deteriorate slightly
more in the overnight hours. There appears to be just enough wind
to keep VSBYs from bottoming completely out, but some episodes of
1/2SM OVC002 type conditions are depicted at least for the San
Antonio area. We`ll keep an eye on AUS, but expect slightly better
VSBYs with more -RADZ and a slightly bolder NE breeze. At DRT the
low clouds and VSBYs are behind schedule, but the sites to the
east would suggest that conditions would drop to IFR or lower
right at the onset. -DZ is no longer being considered at DRT, but
there is some isentropic lift seen by radar at more elevated
levels, so some form of precip may need to go back into the
forecast later in the morning. By daybreak the winds are shown to
pick up slightly, and this should at least pull AUS back up to the
upper part of IFR and eventually MVFR. SAT/SSF may be slower to
trend up, but only by an hour or two.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1200 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025
The chance for light rain continues across most of south central
Texas today and Friday. The best chance for wetting rains will
generally remain along and east of Interstate 35. A cold front will
bring a northerly wind shift today, with some gusty conditions
through most of the daytime hours. Dry weather and much warmer
temperatures are in store Saturday, before another cold front moves
in on Sunday bringing northerly winds back to the region. North
winds and cool temperatures prevail Monday, with the forecast
trending dry and warm into the middle of next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 54 40 54 46 / 40 20 30 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 54 40 52 44 / 40 20 30 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 56 41 54 45 / 40 30 30 0
Burnet Muni Airport 49 38 53 44 / 30 10 20 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 60 46 58 46 / 10 30 30 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 52 39 53 43 / 40 10 20 0
Hondo Muni Airport 59 43 55 44 / 30 30 40 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 56 40 53 44 / 40 30 30 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 55 40 53 45 / 50 20 30 10
San Antonio Intl Airport 57 44 54 47 / 40 30 40 0
Stinson Muni Airport 59 45 55 48 / 40 30 40 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Platt
LONG TERM....Platt
AVIATION...18
No recent Short Term Forecast (NOW) has been issued for NWS Austin/San Antonio CWA (EWX).
No recent Special Weather Statement (SPS) has been issued for NWS Austin/San Antonio CWA (EWX).
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