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Forecast Discussion

                        
441
FXUS64 KEWX 311658
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1058 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and dry with temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s around
  midnight for New Year`s.

- Warmer temperatures to start 2026 with dry weather continuing.

- High temperatures likely to near or exceed daily records on
  Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 1054 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

The cool post-frontal airmass that started the week is on its way
out and a warmer blend of both plateau and Gulf airmass is on its
way in this New Year`s Eve. An upper-level ridge is beginning to
expand over the area, setting up a warming trend for the second half
of the week.

It`ll still be seasonably cool for tonight as we ring in the new
year. Around midnight, temperatures are forecast to be in the mid-40s
to around 50 with only wispy high clouds overhead. Light winds
will help temperatures drop into the upper 30s and low 40s by
Thursday morning. Once again, low-lying valleys and plains will be
the favored spots for cooler temperatures, but with less than 20%
chance of freezes. The warming trend will be more evident on New
Year`s Day as a thermal ridge moves off the Mexican plateau into
our area. Highs return to the 70s regionwide. Lee cyclogenesis
near the Texas panhandle should provide some breezy conditions
Thursday afternoon, with gusts up to around 25 mph on the I-35
corridor and Hill Country. Southerly winds will be pushing higher
dew points into the area, so temperatures Thursday night are
forecast to be substantially milder and largely in the 50s.
Advection fog may accompany the return of this moisture over the
Coastal Plains Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1054 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Friday may be among the warmest January days in recent years,
particularly along the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains. Highs are
forecast to push into the mid to upper 80s for these areas and
the Rio Grande Plains. There is about a 60 to 90 percent chance
daily record highs could be set at Austin and San Antonio. The ENS
extreme forecast index (EFI) and shift-of-tails (SOT) metrics are
also flagging Friday as an abnormally warm day for early January.
As an area of low-pressure moves along the Red River to our
northeast, winds will veer westerly to west-northwesterly during
the day. Modeled lower tropospheric temperatures look warm, but it
looks like the main driver of the warmth will be downsloping air
along the Balcones Escarpment, leading to a breezy warm wind.

A weak cold front should move in from the north behind the outgoing
low-pressure system. That should tone temperatures and dew points
down slightly for the weekend, but above average warmth continues
with highs in the 70s to low 80s. A brief window of northerly winds
may keep nights cooler in the 40s Sunday morning. The upper-level
ridge then strengthens heading into early next week, causing moist
southerly flow to return and supporting a warming trend through
midweek. Based on the synoptic pattern and long-range ensemble
means, daily record highs could be challenged again next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1054 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

VFR flight conditions continue through the TAF period with some thin
high level clouds. High clouds start to increase and thicken late in
the 30 hr TAF period at KAUS and KSAT. Winds remain light from the
southwest today in the 5-7 kt range before diminishing overnight.
Speeds increase by mid to late Friday morning into the 10-12 kt
range at KAUS and KSAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              42  74  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  39  74  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     40  73  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            40  74  55  82 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           42  75  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        40  74  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             39  74  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        39  74  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   37  74  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       41  73  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           39  75  53  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tran
LONG TERM....Tran
AVIATION...62