595 FXUS64 KEWX 302317 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 617 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Key Messages: - Level 2 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening generally along and north of a Burnet to Pflugerville to Lexington line. There is a level 1 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms along and north of a Fredericksburg to San Marcos to Hallettsville line. Will need to monitor the I-35 corridor farther south near San Antonio. - Level 1 to 2 of 5 risk for isolated severe storms Thursday over most of South Central Texas Surface observations show warm temperatures (lower to mid 80s) and humid (dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s) conditions in place across most of south central Texas. The exception is across portions of the Rio Grande plains and southern Edwards Plateau where warm temperatures are in place (upper 80s to upper 90s), but low-level moisture is lower (dewpoints in the lower 40s to mid 50s) behind the dryline. Area radar data shows isolated to scattered showers are developing generally along and east of the I-35 corridor. With additional heating, we should see a gradual increase in coverage of convection, mainly east of the dryline. Hi-res models are generally not in very good agreement, but given convective trends and the stronger forcing for ascent, rain chances will be highest along the I-35 corridor from Austin northward. The latest severe weather outlook from SPC places a level 2 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms generally along and north of a Burnet to Pflugerville to Lexington line. We will also need to monitor for some locally heavy rainfall across Burnet, Williamson and Lee counties as some models show multiple rounds of storms moving over the mentioned counties. Will also monitor to see of the heavy rain potential drops a little farther to the south over Travis county. Over portions of the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and coastal plains, a level 1 of 5 risk is in place along and north of a Fredericksburg to San Marcos to Hallettsville line. While hail and high winds are the main severe weather concerns, there is a low chance for tornadoes for areas under the level 1 to 2 out of 5 risk for severe weather. The threat for tornadoes increase farther north into central and north Texas. A few of the hi-res models develop some stronger convection a little farther south near San Antonio. We will need to monitor this area as well with noted instability axis per recent SPC mesoanalysis. With the loss of daytime heating, convection chances will begin to decrease, but will keep a mention of storms after Midnight for areas east of I-35/north of I-10. On Thursday, the current SPC outlook places almost all of south central Texas under a risk for severe storms, with the higher risk over the Hill Country and along and north of I-35. Similar to today, the models are not in very good agreement. Suspect the focus during the afternoon could shift into portions of the Rio Grande plains, where models show a fairly strong shortwave trough moving in during peak heating. Temperatures will remain above normal through the short term portion of the forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Key Messages: - Locally heavy rainfall and isolated severe storms are expected Friday afternoon through Friday night - Slightly cooler this weekend with low to medium chances of rain and storms - Another storm system brings additional rain and storm chances for the middle of next week Friday morning into early Friday afternoon is expected to start off rather quiet and mostly rain free with temperatures on the way into the mid to upper 80s and low to mid 90s. The rain and thunderstorm chances ramp up through the afternoon and to peak Friday evening as clusters and/or a complex of thunderstorms develops in advance of or along a front that will be dropping southward. There will be enough supportive instability and deep layer shear to allow for some strong to severe storms with this activity. The primary severe threats are large hail and damaging winds. The thunderstorms will become quite prolific rainfall producers as well with rainfall rates that could exceed 2 to 3 inches per hour at times over isolated locations. Despite the ongoing drought conditions across the region, these rates could be enough to result in isolated to scattered instances of flooding over the region. WPC highlights a level 2 of 4 risk for excessive rainfall across majority of the region while a level 1 of 4 risk remains over the southeastern counties of our region. The activity should gradually wane into early Saturday in the post- frontal north-northeasterly flow. The front continues to slide southward into the CRP/BRO CWA region for majority of this upcoming weekend. This will keep our region in a slightly cooler post-frontal airmass under mainly an east- northeasterly flow. Isentropic lift within this flow and lingering moisture, will keep showers and occasional thunder in the forecast through the weekend and into Monday. Afternoon highs are to range from the mid to upper 70s into the low to mid 80s. Overnight low temperatures will dip into the mid to upper 50s across the Hill Country to the low to mid 60s elsewhere. A southeasterly low-level flow will return and increase into and through Monday afternoon/evening, bringing the return of a warm and humid airmass to the region through midweek. Additionally, the next upper level storm system will setup across the Four Corners. This upper low will enhance rain and thunderstorm chances for the region through the middle of next week. Instability builds daily through this stretch and with it being the peak of spring storm season, storms may be strong to severe at times. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 612 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Isolated storms are ongoing in the vicinity of the I-35 corridor with activity expected to remain east of SAT/SSF, through VCTS may impact SSF for the next hour or two. Storms to the north may build south over the northern I-35 corridor and impact AUS as early as 02Z, though confidence is not high enough to add prevailing storms at this time. MVFR conditions return near 05Z at I-35 sites and could go as low as IFR at times. VFR conditions will remain at DRT through the period. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return mid to late Thursday afternoon for most areas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 70 91 69 87 / 50 20 20 70 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 69 91 67 88 / 50 20 20 70 New Braunfels Muni Airport 70 92 68 89 / 50 20 20 50 Burnet Muni Airport 67 91 66 85 / 30 20 20 80 Del Rio Intl Airport 66 98 70 92 / 0 20 40 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 67 91 67 86 / 50 20 20 80 Hondo Muni Airport 67 94 66 89 / 10 30 30 40 San Marcos Muni Airport 69 91 68 88 / 50 20 20 60 La Grange - Fayette Regional 71 90 70 87 / 40 20 20 60 San Antonio Intl Airport 70 91 69 88 / 40 20 20 50 Stinson Muni Airport 71 93 70 90 / 40 20 20 50 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...Platt Long-Term...Brady Aviation...27
No recent Short Term Forecast (NOW) has been issued for NWS Austin/San Antonio CWA (EWX).
Special Weather Statement Issued: 05/01/2025 05:15:34 AM UTC