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823
FXUS64 KEWX 251952
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
252 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
The upper trough axis that has given us our scattered afternoon and
evening convection the past few days is moving east of the area.
Water vapor imagery shows quite a bit of dry air over the northern
and western sections of Texas right now while the coastal plains
hangs on to somewhat deeper moisture. There is a upper ridge axis
that starts off the CA coast and extends SE into West Texas. As a
result of these features will look for the main area of isolated
convection late this afternoon to be mainly over the southeast
zones closest to the coast. The latest HRRR runs confirm this
expected trend. Will continue with the SPS mentioning the higher
heat index values this afternoon. With the rains from yesterday and
Friday, some isolated spots will have some higher dewpoints based on
ground moisture...this could lead to some areas briefly getting above
Heat Advisory levels.

Monday will not see any pop across the cwa with mid to upper heights
increasing as ridge axis pushes a little farther east into Texas. As
a result the temps will come up and so will the Heat Index values. A
heat advisory is being issued for all the zones from Noon to 8 PM on
Monday. Some of the Hill Country counties will likely stay just below
criteria, but with the pockets of rain that occurred the past few
days, I dont trust the dewpoint guidance. Dewpoints may in fact stay
rather high so it wont take much to reach the 108 HI criteria. From
a messaging standpoint, and with school starting, best to be err on
the side of caution.


&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
The rest of the work week will feature the heat and not
much more than that. A cool front is forecast to stall across the
Red River region of North Texas mid week. It is plausible that
convection to the north could send a boundary or two into Central
Texas...bringing some isolated Pop across the northern zones of the
CWA. Some 20 pop was added over mainly the east Wed-Fri with a
combination of seabreeze activity and possible activity from the
N/NE. Confidence is low however. Long range models are pointing to a
couple of scenarios for next weekend. GFS is weakening the upper
ridge over Texas just enough that daytime heating could trigger some
convection. The ECMWF from the 12Z run shows an amplifying ridge out
west into the northern Rockies with resultant strong NW upper flow
over the plains. That could bring a front into Texas and possibly
bring some rain chances. Left rain chances out for now...but
something to keep watching over the coming days.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 78 101 79 102 77 / - 0 0 0 -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 100 78 101 76 / - 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 76 100 77 101 75 / - 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 76 100 77 100 74 / 0 0 0 0 -
Del Rio Intl Airport 79 106 80 105 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 79 101 79 102 77 / - 0 0 0 -
Hondo Muni Airport 76 103 77 103 74 / - 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 77 101 77 101 75 / - 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 78 101 79 103 77 / 10 0 0 - 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 78 101 79 101 77 / - 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 78 100 79 101 77 / - 0 0 0 0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for Atascosa-Bandera-
Bastrop-Bexar-Blanco-Burnet-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Dimmit-Edwards-
Fayette-Frio-Gillespie-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Kendall-Kerr-
Kinney-Lavaca-Lee-Llano-Maverick-Medina-Real-Travis-Uvalde-Val
Verde-Williamson-Wilson-Zavala.

&&

$$

Aviation...Huffman
Short-Term/Long-Term...09
Public Service/Data Collection...33


Zone Forecasts

Special Statements

  • No recent Short Term Forecast (NOW) has been issued for NWS Austin/San Antonio CWA (EWX).

  • Special Weather Statement  Issued: 08/25/2019 04:32:32 AM CST

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