Locally heavy rain and flash flooding will be possible today into tonight near the Mid-Atlantic/Carolina coast. Storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected across parts of the central and northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. Dry thunderstorms, and warm, dry, and windy conditions will produce fire weather conditions in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies. Read More >
946
FXUS64 KEWX 141920
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
220 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain chances continue to increase late Friday into Saturday.
- Temperatures remain near seasonal levels for mid August.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025
Looking at visible satellite imagery we are starting to see a
cumulus field building over the Hill Country. We expect this trend
to continue with a similar scenario unfolding that we saw yesterday
afternoon albeit more isolated in nature meaning not everyone will
see storms this afternoon. PWATs are currently ranging from 1.5-1.9
so any storms will have the capability of producing heavy rainfall
along with gusty winds from any downdrafts and outflow boundaries. As
like previous nights we expect this activity to wane and diminish by
sunset as we lose daytime heating. Low temperatures are expected to
remain in the 70s overnight.
Most areas should remain dry during the day Friday except for the
Coastal Plains and along and east of the I-35 Corridor. Friday night
we start to see our chances of rain increasing as Invest 98L
currently just west of the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico continues to
approrach our area from the Southern Gulf. As it stands a
Reconnaissance plane is en route now to investigate this system. We
will know much more once we receive their data. However, looking at
IR and visible imagery it looks substantially better than it did even
12 hours ago. Based on the coordination with NHC the odds for this
system to develop have now increased to the medium (40%) category
within the next 48 hours. The current thinking is that we could see
impacts from this system regardless of development. The main impacts
would be locally heavy rainfall as a surge of moisture (PWATS in
excess of 2 inches) moves north over our area allowing for warm
tropical rain processes to occur. Additionally, global models are not
handling this system well so its still too soon to say where the
heaviest rainfall will fall and how much. Temperatures for Friday
will remain seasonable with highs upper 90s to low 100s and lows in
the 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025
For the long term portion, rain chances continue to increase for
Saturday as Invest 98L continues moving in from the south in southern
Texas. Because of this decided to raise pops to around 50% for areas
along the Rio Grande Plains as this looks like the most likely track
of the system. As mentioned previously models are having a very
difficult time with this system so its hard to pinpoint just where
the locally heavy rainfall could occur. Likewise, WPC also has most
of our area now in a marginal (level 1 of 4 risk) for excessive
rainfall for day 3 (Saturday). Continued to raise pops (15%-20%)
into early Saturday evening as I`m not buying that the moisture will
shut off so quick as some global models are trying to suggest. After
Saturday evening we should see mainly drier conditions as ridging
builds back over the area for Sunday with only low rain chances for
the Coastal Plains.
Looking ahead towards next week our area remains just to the
east of a strengthening high over the four corners region. This
allows our area to be influenced by repeated disturbances rounding
the periphery of said ridge thus keeping low rain chances peppered
throughout the long term portion of this forecast. Regarding
temperatures, expect the coolest day of the next several to be on
Saturday due to the possible extensive cloud cover and rainfall
chances over the region with highs reaching the mid 90s. However, if
current trends continue highs may need to be scaled back a bit.
otherwise expect mainly seasonable temperatures for mid august
standards across the area. Continue to monitor forecasts as we get
new information in regarding this tropical system and what impacts we
may see locally across the area.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025
Some isolated convection is anticipated this afternoon and early
evening, with most of the coverage expected to remain west of the I-
35 corridor into the Hill Country. Similar to the previous forecast,
we will not mention any SHRA or TSRA for the I-35 sites as coverage
is expected to remain low. We did keep the mention of MVFR cigs for
the I-35 sites beginning early tomorrow morning and continuing into
the mid-morning hours. For DRT, we will keep the forecast VFR
through the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 78 98 78 96 / 20 20 20 50
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 98 77 96 / 20 20 20 50
New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 97 75 96 / 20 20 30 50
Burnet Muni Airport 75 95 75 92 / 30 10 10 40
Del Rio Intl Airport 80 100 78 98 / 10 0 10 50
Georgetown Muni Airport 77 98 76 95 / 20 10 10 40
Hondo Muni Airport 74 98 75 95 / 20 10 30 40
San Marcos Muni Airport 75 98 75 97 / 20 20 30 50
La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 95 77 95 / 20 30 30 50
San Antonio Intl Airport 77 98 77 95 / 20 20 40 50
Stinson Muni Airport 78 99 78 97 / 10 20 40 50
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...CJM
Long-Term...CJM
Aviation...Platt
No recent Short Term Forecast (NOW) has been issued for NWS Austin/San Antonio CWA (EWX).
Special Weather Statement Issued: 08/14/2025 06:09:00 AM UTC
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