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023
FXUS64 KEWX 212349 AAA
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
649 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR conditions are expected across the I-35 terminals for the
forecast period. For KDRT, sct to bkn low level cigs around 4 to 5
Kft will linger around through Friday morning. Can`t rule out for
cigs to lower to MVFR around 16z to 19z time frame as suggested by
model forecast soundings. Winds will be light and variable for most
of the period and then picks up on Friday afternoon to around 8
knots. A low level jet is forecast to affect the Rio Grande on
Friday with speeds averaging from 8 knots overnight to 16 knots
during the Friday afternoon period. Gusts up to 22 knots expected for
the same time frame afternoon period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
The GOES Total Precipitable Water product shows a much drier airmass
has migrated into South Central Texas today, with column moisture
ranging from near one quarter inch in the Hill Country to nearly one
inch along the Rio Grande. Heating of this slightly deeper moisture
has allowed for a scattered/broken stratocumulus deck to linger
across the western counties today. The approach of an upper level
disturbance now over the Great Basin on water vapor imagery tonight
and Friday will result in strengthening low level flow across South
Central Texas, pulling moisture and lower clouds back east across the
region by Friday morning. Expect overnight lows to range from the
upper 40s in Central Texas to upper 50s along the Rio Grande.
While some patchy drizzle may be possible near the Rio Grande during
the early morning hours Friday, expect rain chances associated with
the approaching disturbance to hold off until the afternoon and
evening as an associated lead impulse lifts across the region.
Higher resolution guidance, including the HREF and TTU-WRF, indicate
convection initiating near the Rio Grande/Val Verde county during
the afternoon and evening and translating eastward across the Hill
Country Friday night. Moisture return will contribute to some modest
surface instability during this time (CAPEs over 500 J/kg), better
jet dynamics are expected to remain over the Texas Panhandle/ Permian
Basin/ Low Rolling Plains closer to the parent disturbance and only
expect a potential for showers with isolated non-severe thunderstorms
during this time. Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s Friday will fall
into the mid 50s to lower 60s Friday night.
LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Greatest rain chances for South Central Texas will exist on Saturday
north of Interstate 10/Highway 90 as the upper level disturbance
translates across the Southern Plains. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will move west to east across the region during the day
and into the evening hours with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s.
Rain is expected to end from west to east by Sunday as the system
clears the region, allowing highs to rise into the mid 70s to low 80s
on Sunday. A secondary disturbance crossing the Central Plains late
Sunday into Monday will send a weak front into the region by late
Monday with maybe a few showers possible for the Rio Grande along the
frontal boundary as it moves south on Tuesday. Dry conditions are
expected through the mid-week period with highs near to slightly
below normal in the upper 60s to upper 70s. Increasing warm air
advection ahead of another Pacific storm system on Thursday will
allow for some slightly warmer temperatures and low rain chances to
return to the forecast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 51 75 56 70 59 / 0 0 30 50 30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 49 75 56 71 59 / 0 0 30 50 30
New Braunfels Muni Airport 50 74 55 71 59 / 0 0 30 40 30
Burnet Muni Airport 49 73 54 68 58 / 0 0 40 60 30
Del Rio Intl Airport 59 72 60 77 61 / 0 20 30 20 -
Georgetown Muni Airport 49 74 55 69 58 / 0 0 30 60 40
Hondo Muni Airport 52 75 58 74 60 / 0 - 30 50 20
San Marcos Muni Airport 49 75 55 71 59 / 0 0 30 50 30
La Grange - Fayette Regional 47 75 55 72 59 / 0 0 30 30 30
San Antonio Intl Airport 52 75 57 72 60 / 0 0 30 50 20
Stinson Muni Airport 52 75 58 73 61 / 0 0 30 40 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Aviation...17
Short-Term/Long-Term...04
Public Service/Data Collection...33
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