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483
FXUS64 KEWX 071125
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
525 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog, locally dense in spots, may develop along and/or
  south of the I-10 and highway 90 corridor into mid-morning

- Very warm through Saturday; daily and/or even monthly record
  highs could be reached today

- Strong cold front arriving Saturday night brings breezy to windy
  conditions, much cooler temperatures, and near-critical to
  critical fire weather conditions

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1208 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Mild conditions are expected into this morning with lows in the mid
50s to low 60s. Fog doesn`t quite look to be as widespread as
yesterday morning but the HREF/REFS probabilities do show a region
along and south of the I-10 and highway 90 corridor with medium (30-
70%) chance for visibility at or less than 1/2 of a mile. Pockets of
low stratus will otherwise be favored elsewhere. Fog and low clouds
will improve by mid to late morning, with clear skies expected from
the afternoon into the evening.

This afternoon under the clear skies trends hot and will challenge
daily record highs across the region, in addition to possibly a few
of the November high temperature records as well. A weak front or
surface trough advancing southward through the Hill Country is a
contributing factor to this heat as it provides compressional
warming ahead of the boundary. The hottest temperatures are likely
to occur immediately ahead of this boundary, but exact placement of
this boundary remains a little iffy on the latest short term
guidance. Confidence regarding the high temperatures in the Hill
Country would be lowest as the locations that slip behind this
boundary by mid-afternoon, would probably see the temperatures dip
slightly. The flow turns more northwesterly to northerly in wake of
the boundary and speeds may be enough with the lower humidity to
mention some locally elevated fire weather danger through this
afternoon in the northern Hill Country.

The surface boundary could continue to inch southward through this
evening into tonight, possibly crossing the I-35 corridor. With a
light northerly flow, this should limit any fog potential towards
our far southeastern most counties into Saturday morning. While
Saturday will be very warm as well, this boundary lingering across
the region, would potentially keep the high temperatures lower
compared to previous forecasts, especially across the north and
northeastern areas. This includes the Austin metro area. There are
some short term guidance that do struggle to climb out of the low
80s, across portions of the area. Confidence on afternoon highs
Saturday is lower than average.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1208 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

An anomalously strong trough dives from the Upper Midwest into the
southeastern CONUS from this weekend into early next week. A strong
cold front that is associated with this storm system advances across
our region on Saturday night. The front is expected to stay rain
free but does bring significant changes. Changes will include breezy
to strong post-frontal winds into and through Sunday with gusts in
the 35 to 45 mph range. The highest winds could occur before sunrise
Sunday. The post-frontal winds are to usher in even drier and much
cooler air into the region. Low humidity combined with the elevated
post-frontal winds on Sunday will result in critical fire weather
conditions for most. Fire weather along with wind products will be
considered as this event nears.

As mentioned the past few days, the coldest air settles across the
eastern to southeastern CONUS but still enough spills into our
region with surface high pressure advancing south-southeastward.
Daytime highs will fall into the 50s and 60s with the coolest day
setting up on Monday. Expect for the lowest temperatures in the 30s
to low 40s to occur into Monday or Tuesday morning with the lowest
values depending on location and topography on which day. Monday
morning would likely be driven by cold air advection with lingering
northerly breezes while Tuesday leans more on effective radiational
cooling with lighter winds, especially to the east closer to the
center of the surface high. Nonetheless, both these mornings will
offer the opportunity for at least a light freeze across rural areas
and protected low lying valleys. Lowest wind chills look to also
drop into the mid to upper 20s across several areas.

Temperatures are then quickly forecast to warmup during mid to late
next week with return southerly low-level flow and the expansion of
mid-level ridging eastward from the Desert Southwest. Highs could
return to the low 80s by Wednesday and the mid 80s on Thursday.
Morning lows quickly bounce back into the 50s as well. Enough winds
and low humidity could be in place into Tuesday and Wednesday for
elevated to near critical fire weather conditions for portions of
the region, especially in the Hill Country.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

VFR flying conditions prevail today through Saturday. The potential
for a period of reduced ceilings and visibility 12Z-15Z this
morning has decreased along the I-35 corridor, and mainly confined
to isolated spots in the Hill Country and well as south and east
of San Antonio. SW winds 5KT or less early this morning. At the
I-35 sites, winds increasing to 5-12KT late morning, then turn N
around 5 KTs early this evening. At KDRT, winds turn NW at 5-10
KT midday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1208 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Dry weather featuring well above average daytime temperatures and
mostly light to occasionally gusty southerly winds continues today
through Saturday. RH minimums fall to near 15 to 25 percent this
afternoon and again Saturday afternoon in the Southern Edwards
Plateau and Hill Country. There could be enough wind behind a weak
surface boundary from the north-northwest across those areas for
some concerns of elevated fire weather this afternoon. A dry but
strong cold front arrives Saturday night. The front will bring
breezy to strong northerly post-frontal winds. These post-frontal
winds combined with RH minimums in the 15 to 25 percent range area
wide Sunday afternoon will result in at least near critical to
critical fire weather conditions. Fire weather products will likely
be issued as the event nears. The cooler and dry airmass remains
through early Tuesday before a quick warmup follows through the
middle of next week. There may be enough return flow with continued
dry air for some elevated to near critical fire weather concerns
across portions of the region next Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1208 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Record | Friday | Saturday | Monthly

         (11/07)  (11/08)

AUS    |89 2024 | 90 1989  | 91 2016
ATT    |89 1988 | 89 2024  | 91 2016
SAT    |88 2005 | 90 1989  | 94 1988
DRT    |92 1988 | 93 1980  | 96 1988

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              92  59  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  91  56  86  57 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     91  57  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            85  55  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           93  56  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        90  55  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             89  55  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        92  56  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   90  59  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       90  59  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           91  60  88  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...76