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000
FXUS64 KEWX 251341
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
841 AM CDT Tue Sep 25 2018

.UPDATE...
Quick morning update to account for lingering fog across portions of
the Rio Grande Plains through mid-morning and retrend temperatures
and dew points based on latest observations. Expect fog and low
clouds to lift by mid-morning as daytime mixing commences.
Otherwise, isolated to scattered showers are still expected across
the Coastal Plains late this morning and through the afternoon as
temperatures rise into the upper 80s to mid 90s.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT Tue Sep 25 2018/

UPDATE...
Please see the 12Z aviation forecast discussion below.

AVIATION...
Mainly IFR cigs will continue along the I-35 corridor for the next
several hours, with improvement to MVFR expected around 15Z. Isolated
showers are also expected, but with limited coverage, we will not
mention in the forecast at this time. We will then see a return of
VFR conditions after 17Z today as southerly winds remain at or below
10kts. Low clouds are expected to develop again early Wednesday
morning along the I-35 corridor. At DRT, low clouds have managed to
develop and we will keep MVFR conditions in the forecast through
mid-morning. VFR will return to DRT by late morning and continue
through today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT Tue Sep 25 2018/

SHORT TERM..
Cloudy skies will begin to scatter later this morning. Southerly
flow bringing in rich Gulf moisture today, setting us up for more
rain chances this week. For today, the rain chances are limited to
mainly the coastal region this afternoon as diurnal heating
decreases stability. High temperatures today will be in the upper
80`s to low 90`s and will be highest temperatures we will see all
week.

LONG TERM..
An approaching cold front will move into the area on Wednesday
increasing rain chances for the area before stalling near the Texas
coast. With its slow movement and shallow depth, showers are likely
to carry on behind the front along with slightly cooler
temperatures. Highest PWs will be along the coastal plains with
values nearing 2.0. Brief periods of heavy rain are possible along
the boundary, likely in the western counties where confluent flow is
greatest.

Post-frontal troughing extends rain chances Thursday and through the
weekend. Trough axis is trending deeper and further south into our
area. Latest model runs are in agreement to closing it off with the
NAM being more aggressive. With this feature, even further rain
chances extend into Sunday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 92 73 84 65 77 / 20 20 60 40 40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 92 72 85 66 78 / 20 20 60 50 40
New Braunfels Muni Airport 94 73 85 67 77 / 20 20 60 50 40
Burnet Muni Airport 90 71 79 62 75 / 10 10 50 40 30
Del Rio Intl Airport 92 73 84 64 76 / - 10 50 60 50
Georgetown Muni Airport 91 71 82 64 76 / 20 10 50 40 30
Hondo Muni Airport 94 73 85 67 78 / 10 30 60 60 50
San Marcos Muni Airport 92 73 86 66 77 / 20 30 60 60 40
La Grange - Fayette Regional 93 74 86 69 79 / 30 30 70 60 50
San Antonio Intl Airport 93 75 85 66 77 / 10 30 60 60 40
Stinson Muni Airport 94 75 87 68 77 / 10 30 60 60 50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...10
Synoptic/Grids...Huffman

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