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Forecast Discussion

                        
520
FXUS64 KEWX 250026
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
626 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A broken line of showers and thunderstorms which some of the
storms could be strong to marginally severe to affect parts of the
local area this afternoon (Best chances for severe storms to our
east).

- Dry and cool weather returns and stays for few days in the wake of
a cold front moving across South Central Texas this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1222 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

There is a surface trough/convergence zone between a warm front to
the northeast of the Hill Country and a cold front moving across the
Southern Edwards Plateau area as of 12 PM this afternoon. Also, a
mid level trough axis is moving across the Hill Country while an
upper level trough axis is moving across the Trans-Pecos area. The
upper level feature is forecast to advance to the east as the day
progresses ending up helping instability across parts of the Hill
Country and areas along the I-35 Corridor. This translates to a
marginal potential for strong to severe storms across those
mentioned locations. All severe hazards (large hail, damaging wind
gusts and an isolated tornado) are possible with any severe storm
that develops mid to late afternoon. However, the best chances and
probabilities for severe weather looking to be to our east where a
Tornado Watch is in effect through 7 PM this evening.

Clearing is forecast to take place from west to east throughout the
afternoon and evening with rain chances coming to an end and some
lingering clouds staying across the Coastal Plains overnight.
Overnight lows are forecast to range from the mid to upper 40s
across the Southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country and lower to
mid 50s elsewhere. Tuesday`s weather looks dry and cool under sunny
skies with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1222 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

The cool and dry weather continues for the rest of the week for the
most part. There is a slight chance for showers late Friday night
into Saturday with the help of a strong low level jet spreading
increased moisture from the Gulf into the Coastal Plains and along
the I-35 Corridor. Models are not in good agreement as far as the
next frontal boundary to affect the local area with ECMWF pushing a
cold front while the GFS solution shows a cold front early next week.
So for now, enjoy the dry and cool days and cooler mornings through
the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

The cold front has pushed off to the east taking the weather and
clouds with it. Skies will be mainly clear for the upcoming TAF
period. Winds behind the front are generally from the northwest
and will be less than 10 kts at all terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              54  80  50  65 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  52  79  49  64 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     53  81  50  66 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            51  75  46  60 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           53  80  52  70 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        50  76  46  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             51  83  51  69 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        52  81  49  66 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   56  80  50  66 /  20   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       55  82  53  67 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           56  83  55  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...05