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320
FXUS64 KEWX 231406
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
906 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025

A persistent MCV continues to spin near the Rio Grande in Val
Verde County. Showers and thunderstorms are moving into the
central part of the county and will produce moderate rain and
occasional lightning. Storms seem to be weakening, but will
likely persist for a few more hours.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions Wednesday and Thursday
- Low chance (10%) for tropical formation in the northwest Gulf
  through Friday
- Low to medium chances (20-50%) for showers and thunderstorms
  Friday through Sunday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025

A weak mid level MCV developed late Tuesday evening across Mexico
and has been generating scattered showers and thunderstorms across
western areas of the CWA, overachieving from what the 00Z HREF had
indicated. This activity should continue for a few more hours before
weakening and eventually dissipating early morning. Then the mid and
upper level subtropical ridge is forecast to nudge farther west into
the area today and Thursday, resulting in warm and dry conditions.
The high precipitable water pool that is near the Rio Grande also
gets nudged farther into west Texas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1243 CDT Wed Jul 23 2025

A mid and upper level trough is forecast to slide west through the
northern Gulf Thursday and Friday, beneath the subtropical ridge.
There is also a surface trough of low pressure that is being
monitored, and the National Hurricane Center currently forecasts a
low chance (10%) for tropical cyclone formation in the northern Gulf
over the next few days. The southwest periphery of the subtropical
ridge over our area if forecast to lift north by Friday, and this
should open the door for the higher pool of tropical moisture
associated with the northern Gulf feature to move into the Coastal
Plains and I-35 corridor Friday and Friday night, and spreading
through the entire area on Saturday. The moisture could linger into
Sunday across the area. Currently we are forecasting a low to medium
chance (20-50%) of tropical showers and thunderstorms Friday through
Sunday, with the highest chances on Saturday.

The subtropical ridge looks to build back into the region Monday and
Tuesday of next week with dry and warm conditions forecast during
this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025

A few showers remain possible at DRT through mid to late morning
before a mid-level MCV weakens. An improvement to VFR ceilings is
expected by late morning followed by increasing southeasterly surface
winds. MVFR is expected to make a return tonight after 07Z as low
level moisture helps to build up another stratus layer late this
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75 101  75  98 /   0   0   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74 100  74  97 /   0   0   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73 100  73  97 /   0   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            72  98  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           77 102  76 102 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        73 100  74  98 /   0   0   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             73  99  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        73 100  73  97 /   0   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  99  74  95 /   0   0   0  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       75 100  76  97 /   0   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           75 102  75  98 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Update...05
Short-Term...76
Long-Term...76
Aviation...MMM