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Forecast Discussion
578
FXUS64 KEWX 070734
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
234 AM CDT Fri May 7 2021
.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
Southerly lower level flow and moisture are beginning to return to
South Central Texas early this morning. There could be a few patches
of shallow ground fog around sunrise that will burn off rapidly with
mixing. A more significant moisture return is expected tonight with
stratus developing overnight. The stratus then mixes out midday on
Saturday. Upslope on the Serrianas del Burro, as well as, forcing by
and moisture convergence along the dryline across Western Texas will
allow for thunderstorms to develop Saturday afternoon. It`s possible
that steering flow take one or two storms to our lower Pecos Valley
and Rio Grande areas by late afternoon, however, will leave mention
out as chances are too low. An increasing surface pressure gradient
will lead to breezy winds across the Rio Grande Plains into the
Edwards Plateau today and all areas on Saturday. Slightly above
normal temperatures can be expected.
&&
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
A weak disturbance within westerly flow will be moving through the
northern counties Saturday night and Sunday morning. This system
should bring a small chance of a shower and maybe a thunderstorm to
the northern counties during this time frame. Overall, chances of
rain should be 20 percent or less. High temperatures on Sunday should
be quite warm, in the 90s for most locations with near 100 degrees
across the Rio Grande Plains.
Big changes are then in store for the Monday-Thursday time period of
the long-term forecast. An upper level trough axis will move into the
western CONUS and then into the Central Plains during this time
period. This system will bring a cold front into the area on Monday
but models are not in good agreement on the evolution of the boundary
beyond Monday. Some models show the front lingering around the area
through Thursday, but others like the Canadian keep the front well
south of the region. The temperature forecast for next week will be
highly dependent on where the front is each day. However, regardless
of the positioning of the front, it looks like there should be decent
chances of rainfall each day Monday through Thursday. It will be
difficult to pinpoint what specific areas will have the highest
chances of rain until we get closer to next week. But with
precipitable water values near 1.9 inches, there should be a threat
of locally heavy rainfall next week. Instability values look low, but
confidence in this is low as much will be influenced by the
positioning of the frontal boundary. The forecast will continued to
be refined this weekend, but hopefully another period of beneficial
rainfall is in store next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 87 65 88 72 91 / 0 - - 10 20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 86 63 88 71 90 / 0 - - 10 20
New Braunfels Muni Airport 88 66 90 73 93 / 0 - - - 10
Burnet Muni Airport 85 65 87 71 88 / 0 - - 20 20
Del Rio Intl Airport 92 69 95 72 101 / 0 0 - 10 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 86 64 88 71 90 / 0 - - 20 20
Hondo Muni Airport 89 66 93 71 95 / 0 0 - 10 -
San Marcos Muni Airport 87 64 88 71 91 / 0 - - 10 10
La Grange - Fayette Regional 88 66 87 74 89 / 0 0 0 10 20
San Antonio Intl Airport 87 66 89 72 93 / 0 - - - -
Stinson Muni Airport 89 67 91 73 95 / 0 - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term/Aviation...04
Long-Term...Hampshire
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