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Forecast Discussion

                        
169
FXUS64 KEWX 300417
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1017 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The cold front is moving across the Hill Country with a few
showers along and behind it, however, showers and thunderstorms
activity is forecast to grow as it approaches the Coastal Plains
after midnight Sunday.

- There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms
  mainly for the overnight hour as the front pushes down into the
  Coastal Plains. Better chances for this to occur are along and
  east of Highway 77.

- Breezy and wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph (medium to high
  confidence) are forecast in the wake of the front and could last
  through midday Sunday with wind gust values down to 20 to 30 mph
  range for the afternoon

- A cold airmass follows the frontal passage with temperatures
  dropping to the upper 30s, 40s, and lower 50s with wind chill
  values in the upper 20s and mid 30s for portions of the Southern
  Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and along the I-35 Corridor from
  Georgetown to Austin to San Marcos to New Braunfels

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1004 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

The anticipated cold front is quickly moving across the Hill Country
as of 10 PM and forecast to continue to push to the southeast and
exit South Central Texas overnight between 4 and 5 AM. Isolated
strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible and capable
of producing large hail of one in diameter and wind gusts of 60 mph.
With pwats in the 1.2 to 1.5 inches based on hires guidance, a few
spots could get 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with localized up to 3
inches mainly over portions of Fayette, Gonzales, Lavaca, and DeWitt
Counties. In the wake of the front, a cold air mass spreads across
the local area with breezy north winds and gusts of 35 to 45 mph. By
daybreak, the cold air mass has spread across South Central Texas
with lows in the upper 30s, 40s and lower 50s. However, the breezy
north winds are forecast to help the wind chill values to reach the
upper 20s and mid 30s over portions of the Southern Edwards Plateau,
Hill Country, and portions of the I-35 corridor.

The cold airmass stays over the local area with Sunday`s highs only
reaching the mid 40s to mid 50s under cloudy skies. No rain is
forecast for most of the day on Sunday, however, isolated showers
and storms could return for the Coastal Plains area during the
evening and overnight period as a frontal boundary sits along the
middle Texas coast. Overnight/early Monday morning lows are forecast
to range from the mid and upper 30s across the Hill Country to mid
40s across the Coastal Plains.

A cool day is in store for South Central Texas on Monday with highs
in the mid 40s over the eastern half of the local area and 50s for
the Southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande areas. Scattered showers
are forecast for areas mainly along and east of Highway 281 as
abundant moisture remains over that area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1004 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

The cool air stays in place through the middle of the week with dry
weather forecast for Tuesday and most of Wednesday before a second
push of a cold airmass and rain chances arrive Wednesday night into
Thursday. A wet pattern remains through Friday with a dry weekend
and warmer temperatures in store with highs back into the mid to
upper 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1004 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Winds will be very strong, sustained at 15-25 kts, gusting to
25-35 kts from 06Z through midday Sunday (18z). Winds will take
some time to subside and likely won`t drop below 10 kts until
after 00Z Monday. MVFR cigs are likely overnight through day break
Sunday for the I-35 Corridor terminals. For KDRT, MVFR cigs are
possible for a short period overnight and then changing to VFR for
the rest of the period. MVFR cigs return to the I-35 airports
Sunday evening into the overnight period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              43  50  40  50 /  40   0  20  40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  42  50  40  50 /  50  10  20  40
New Braunfels Muni Airport     44  51  40  52 /  50   0  30  40
Burnet Muni Airport            39  47  38  50 /  20   0  10  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           49  54  45  61 /  10  10  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        40  49  39  50 /  40   0  20  30
Hondo Muni Airport             46  54  41  55 /  10  10  20  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        43  51  40  52 /  50   0  30  40
La Grange - Fayette Regional   43  51  40  50 /  80  10  40  60
San Antonio Intl Airport       46  52  43  53 /  30   0  20  40
Stinson Muni Airport           49  54  44  53 /  30  10  30  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...18