National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Heavy Rainfall to Bring Flooding Threat to California; Heavy Snow in the Sierra

A strong atmospheric river will bring heavy rainfall to California through the holiday week. The heaviest rainfall is expected on Wednesday in the Los Angeles Basin. Flash and urban flooding is possible. A prolonged heavy snowfall is expected in the Sierra Nevada from the atmospheric river, raising concerns for major snow‐load impacts. Travel may be difficult to impossible over the passes. Read More >

Subseasonal Indices

Arctic Oscillation (AO)

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) refers to an atmospheric circulation pattern over the mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The phase of this oscillation is most evident in the north-to-south location of the storm-steering, mid-latitude jet stream. Learn more about the impacts of AO phases on temperature and precipitation patterns across the United States.

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is based on the surface sea-level pressure difference between the Subtropical (Azores) High and the subpolar Low. Positive Phase: Below-normal heights and pressure across the high latitudes of the North Atlantic, with above-normal heights and pressure over the central North Atlantic and the eastern United States.
Negative Phase: The opposite pattern of height and pressure anomalies.
Both phases influence the intensity and location of the North Atlantic jet stream and storm track, affecting large-scale heat and moisture transport. Explore the typical temperature and precipitation patterns linked to NAO phases.

Pacific/North American Pattern (PNA)

The Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern is a prominent mode of low-frequency variability in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, occurring in all months except June and July. The PNA index is measured by height anomalies (generally at 500 and 700 mb) over the western and eastern United States. ENSO Connection: Positive PNA patterns often align with El Niño events, while negative PNA phases are typically associated with La Niñas. View the typical temperature and precipitation patterns across the United States.


Interannual Indices

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Click here to learn more about ENSO and its impact on northern Arizona's weather.

Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)

Observed Regions Anomalies

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

850 mb Wind Anomalies

Latest ENSO Forecasts