National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Areas of Excessive Rainfall and Dangerous Heat

Heavy to severe thunderstorms may bring areas of excessive rainfall and flooding over parts of the southern Plains through Friday. Hot to dangerously hot temperatures are forecast again across portions of the Pacific Northwest and southern Great Basin Tuesday. Read More >

Subseasonal Indices

Arctic Oscillation (AO)

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) refers to an atmospheric circulation pattern over the mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The phase of this oscillation is most evident in the north-to-south location of the storm-steering, mid-latitude jet stream. Learn more about the impacts of AO phases on temperature and precipitation patterns across the United States.

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is based on the surface sea-level pressure difference between the Subtropical (Azores) High and the subpolar Low. Positive Phase: Below-normal heights and pressure across the high latitudes of the North Atlantic, with above-normal heights and pressure over the central North Atlantic and the eastern United States.
Negative Phase: The opposite pattern of height and pressure anomalies.
Both phases influence the intensity and location of the North Atlantic jet stream and storm track, affecting large-scale heat and moisture transport. Explore the typical temperature and precipitation patterns linked to NAO phases.

Pacific/North American Pattern (PNA)

The Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern is a prominent mode of low-frequency variability in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, occurring in all months except June and July. The PNA index is measured by height anomalies (generally at 500 and 700 mb) over the western and eastern United States. ENSO Connection: Positive PNA patterns often align with El Niño events, while negative PNA phases are typically associated with La Niñas. View the typical temperature and precipitation patterns across the United States.


Interannual Indices

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Click here to learn more about ENSO and its impact on northern Arizona's weather.

Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)

Observed Regions Anomalies

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

850 mb Wind Anomalies

Latest ENSO Forecasts