National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

It will be mostly clear and cool tonight with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. The gusty northwest winds that we had today will decrease to 5 to 10 mph after sunset and then become light and variable overnight.
It will be mostly sunny and warmer Wednesday with highs in the 70s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
There will be warming trend Thursday through Saturday. It will be breezy Thursday and Friday with south winds 15 to 25 mph. Low chances of rain will return north of a Comanche to Bonham line Highs will be in the 70s to lower 80s Thursday, upper 70s northeast to upper 80s northwest Friday and around 80 east to around 90 northwest Saturday.
It will be mostly cloudy Sunday and Sunday night with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could be strong to severe late afternoon into the evening. Highs will range from the upper 70s northeast to near 90 degrees northwest. Lows Sunday night will be in upper 50s northeast to the upper 60s southeast.
A slow-moving upper trough over the Rockies and Four Corners area will provide multiple storm chances back to the area at least the first half of the week. A surface dryline and eventual cold will also play a role for the development of showers and thunderstorms. However, with this system a week away, many details regarding storm track, timing, and thunderstorm development/severe weather potential remain HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. Continue to monitor future forecasts regarding next week.
Here's the current Weather Prediction Center (WPC) rainfall forecast early next week. Heaviest amounts would be north of I-20/30 and into Oklahoma where some flooding could become possible due to multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. However, forecast amounts and placement may change as we approach this time period. Continue to monitor future forecasts.
We will have a SKYWARN Basic Class on Thursday, March 22nd in Gun Barrel City (Henderson County). The class will be from 7 pm to 9 pm. Classes are free and registration is not required! We hope to see you there!

Text Product Selector (Selected product opens in current window)
Latest Text Products Issued (Experimental)
Safe Rooms Icon Cooperatirve Rainfall (CoCoRaHs) icon Storm Ready Icon AirNow Icon
Map of Duck Creek

North Texas Flash Flood Climatology



Flash flooding kills more people annually than any other type of severe weather.  There are numerous social, educational, and political issues that contribute to the high fatality rates associated with flash flooding.  According to the American Meteorology Society (AMS), flash flooding is a “flood that rises and falls quite rapidly with little or no advance warning, usually as the result of intense rainfall over a relatively small area.”  But what does that mean?  How much rain over how big of an area constitutes a flash flood?  Forecasters, the public, the media, storm spotters, and law enforcement officials all have ideas about whether a situation is a flash flood or not.  It is ultimately up to National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters to classify whether an event is a flash flood.  Storm Data, issued by the National Climatic Data Center, is the official publication for severe weather events.  Flash flooding was first documented in Storm Data in 1995. 


Unlike other severe weather events, such as tornadoes and hail, flash flooding can be caused and exacerbated by high population densities and poorly planned urban infrastructure.  This makes flash flooding a unique warning and forecasting challenge as forecasters must take into account more than just meteorological factors.  That is why this database, which identifies the most dangerous locations in north Texas, can be a crucial piece of information for issuing effective warnings.  In addition, findings from this study may be incorporated into warning templates, thereby strengthening the public’s perception of danger and hopefully saving lives.

Download Paper Here 

 Back to NWS Ft. Worth Research Webpage

Map of Duck Creek