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Heavy Rain and Potential for Flash Flooding for Mid-Atlantic

An unseasonably strong storm system will bring heavy rain to the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians Friday into Saturday. Flash flooding and widespread lowland flooding are possible during this period. Meanwhile, monsoon moisture will continue to produce heavy rain with the possibility of localized flash flooding in the Desert Southwest through the southern/central Rockies and High Plains. Read More >

Today will be another scorcher and the hottest day thus far this season for many locations. Afternoon highs will range from the middle 90s to around 103 with afternoon heat index values as high as 110. Therefore, a Heat Advisory is in effect for much of North and Central Texas today.
A cold front will move into the region tonight, and this will bring some low chances for showers and thunderstorms to the region. Not everyone will see rainfall. Low temperatures across the area will fall into the middle and upper 70s.
It is July in Texas and it's hot. So you're probably thinking why is the National Weather Service telling us about the heat? Well, it's simple: heat kills. Know the signs of heat exhaustion versus heat stroke. Faint or dizzy with excessive sweating, that's heat exhaustion. Get to a cooler place and drink water. What if you or someone you know, is in the heat and suddenly stops sweating, gets a throbbing headache and/or nausea? Well, these are signs of a Heat Stroke and this is an emergency situation. Your body is no longer able to cool off and if you don't get immediate care - it can be fatal. If you're suffering from Heat Stroke, you should call 9-1-1 and then immediately take action to cool down as you wait for help to arrive.
It'll be a hot one again on Saturday, with the hottest conditions being displaced across portions of Central Texas. Low thunderstorm chances will exist across parts of North and Central Texas this weekend, but drier air will work its way in from the northeast by Sunday. Moisture will then start to slowly increase as we head into next week, and additional chances for showers and storms will develop. Temperatures will remain generally in the lower 90s Monday and Tuesday.
A pattern change will occur next week, as the hot upper level high moves off to the northwest. This will bring northerly flow aloft to the region and bring slightly cooler conditions and scattered rain and storm chances to the area each day next week.

 
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Experimental Convective Parameters For North Texas

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth is now offering Experimental Convective Parameters on this website!

The analysis is computed using surface observation data and the latest RUC model for all upper level data.  This is different from the SPC mesoanalysis web page, because no model analysis is used for the surface fields.  This means our analysis is heavily weighted to the latest surface observation. Thus, some small "bulls-eye" type areas may occur if a surface observation is outlying or incorrect.  Bad observations are periodically quality controlled by forecasters and removed.  The advantage to this technique is that our convective parameters will have a higher resolution and be capable of rapid adjustments if the atmosphere is rapidly changing.

The parameters are generated hourly, with the generation process starting around 15 minutes past the hour. The images should be available by 20 past each hour.

We are currently producing the following images:

Thumbnail image showing an example of the convective interest parameter.