National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Thunderstorms Expected From the Ozarks to the Middle Mississippi Valley: Watching the Tropics

Isolated severe thunderstorms are forecast Monday afternoon from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. A tropical disturbance could form by the middle part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Gradual development is possible as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico late week with possible U.S. impacts next weekend. Read More >

Automatically generated image showing areas of the significant tornado parameter.

 

Thumbnail of an automatically generated image showing areas of the significant tornado parameter. Thumbnail of an automatically generated image showing areas of the significant tornado parameter. Thumbnail of an automatically generated image showing areas of the significant tornado parameter.
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Significant Tornado (SigTor) 

A composite index that includes 0-6 km bulk wind shear, 0-1 km storm-relative helicity, surface based CAPE, surface parcel CIN, and surface parcel LCL height. Values greater than 1 are indicative of increased potential of significant tornadoes.

The contours are the Lifted Condensation Level or LCL.  A lower LCL typically increases tornadic risk because it is indicative of air parcel acceleration occurring closer to the surface. 

 

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