Northern San Juan Forecast Area (COZ291) - Fire Weather Forecast

COZ291-161245-
COZ291-161245-
Northern San Juan Forecast Area-
236 PM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Wrn Colorado and Ern Utah
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
236 PM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.DISCUSSION... Moisture is gradually moving back into our area. 
Today this moisture is resulting in isolated dry thunderstorms. 
As a result, the main concerns are strong wind gusts around storms
and lightning. As atmospheric moisture increases over the coming 
days, shower and thunderstorm coverage should increase, and 
precipitation will have a greater chance of making it to the 
ground. Although moisture and minimum relative humidity are  
expected to increase, this change will be gradual and localized 
Red Flag conditions are possible where it is dry due to gusts 
above critical fire weather thresholds in local areas. 

...GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS...
...THE SMOKE DATA IS CALCULATED FROM AN AVERAGE AT 6000 FEET MSL...


.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50%). Isolated showers and 
                    dry thunderstorms until 2400. Areas of smoke. 
Chc of lightning....20 percent. 
Min temperature.....50-60 F. 
Max humidity........48-58%. 
20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming 
                    downslope/downvalley 3 to 6 mph by sunset.
CWR.................10 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....Northwest 15 to 20 mph. 
Mixing Height.......9000 ft AGL until 2000, then 2000 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....West 5 to 10 mph until 2400, then south. 
Smoke dispersal.....Good until 2100, then poor. 

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50%) until 1200, then mostly 
                    cloudy (60-70%). Areas of smoke. Isolated 
                    showers until 1200, scattered dry thunderstorms 
                    and showers after 1200. 
Chc of lightning....50 percent. 
Max temperature.....72-82 F. 
Min humidity........15-25%. 
20-foot winds.......Downslope/downvalley 3 to 6 mph becoming 
                    upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph by 1100.
CWR.................30 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....Northwest 10 to 15 mph. 
Mixing Height.......2500 ft AGL until 0900, then 9000 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....West 5 to 10 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900. Good after 1200. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50%). Scattered showers and 
                    isolated thunderstorms until 2400. Areas of 
                    smoke. 
Chc of lightning....20 percent. 
Min temperature.....49-59 F. 
Max humidity........51-61%. 
20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming 
                    downslope/downvalley 3 to 6 mph by sunset.
CWR.................10 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....Northwest 10 to 15 mph. 
Mixing Height.......6000 ft AGL until 2000, then 2000 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....Southwest 5 to 10 mph until 2400, then south. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor. 

.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (50-60%) until 1200, then mostly 
                    cloudy (70-80%). Isolated showers and 
                    thunderstorms until 1200, then numerous showers 
                    and thunderstorms. 
Chc of lightning....70 percent. 
Max temperature.....68-78 F. 
Min humidity........22-32%. 
20-foot winds.......Downslope/downvalley 3 to 6 mph becoming 
                    upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph by 1100.
CWR.................60 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....North 5 to 10 mph shifting to the west in the 
                    afternoon. 
Mixing Height.......6500 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....Southwest 5 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900. Fair after 1200. 

.FORECAST FOR DAY 3 THROUGH 7...
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and thunderstorms. Lows
47-57. Highs 71-81. Winds less than 15 mph. 
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 48-58. Highs 72-82. Winds less than 15 mph. 
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 47-57. Highs 72-82. Winds less than 15 mph. 
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 47-57. Highs 74-84. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Lows
47-57. Highs 76-86.