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 Grand Junction Soaring Forecast

We are testing a new soaring forecast program. During this testing phase, the soaring forecast may not always be available or may not be updated. Please check the date of the soaring forecast before using the data. Feedback to our webmaster regarding this new soaring forecast program will be appreciated.

 


000
UXUS97 KGJT 111250
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
0650 MDT Saturday, July 11, 2020

This forecast is for Saturday, July 11, 2020:

If the trigger temperature of 90.2 F/32.3 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
Maximum rate of lift........................ 1128 ft/min (5.7 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 17469 ft MSL (12630 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 101.0 F/38.8 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1045 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 12933 ft MSL (8094 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Sunday 07/12....... Excellent

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

***ATTENTION Soaring Forecast Users***The National Weather Service in Boulder wants to hear from you.
Please send and email to paul.t.schlatter@noaa.gov and let us know how you use the Soaring Forecast. Thanks!

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 05:58:16 / 20:41:16 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 43 min 0 sec (883 min 0 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:19:46 MDT... 72.34 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 07/11/2020 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 17904 ft MSL (13065 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 24993 ft MSL (20154 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 23381 ft MSL (18542 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +3.3
K index......................... -6.4

Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -69.5 -93.1 260 30 15 7.2 4.0 76.4 169.5 22.2 M M
45000 -60.5 -76.9 290 30 15 7.2 3.9 67.3 153.2 18.1 M M
40000 -50.7 -59.3 275 47 24 5.8 3.2 59.7 139.5 14.3 M M
38000 -47.2 -53.0 275 44 23 5.7 3.1 56.2 133.1 12.2 M M
36000 -42.2 -44.0 270 41 21 8.2 4.5 54.9 130.9 11.7 M M
34000 -38.0 -36.4 265 40 21 9.4 5.2 51.5 124.7 9.5 M M
32000 -33.2 -27.8 265 39 20 10.8 5.9 50.2 122.3 8.8 M M
30000 -28.5 -19.3 270 35 18 7.4 4.1 48.7 119.6 7.9 M M
29000 -26.3 -15.3 270 32 17 7.4 4.1 47.6 117.7 7.1 M M
28000 -24.1 -11.4 270 30 15 7.4 4.1 46.7 116.1 6.5 M M
27000 -21.9 -7.4 270 27 14 6.6 3.6 45.9 114.6 6.0 M M
26000 -20.1 -4.2 260 26 13 6.1 3.4 44.5 112.0 4.9 M M
25000 -17.7 0.1 255 26 13 7.9 4.3 43.8 110.8 4.4 M M
24000 -15.4 4.3 250 24 12 7.6 4.2 42.9 109.3 3.8 M M
23000 -13.1 8.4 245 22 11 7.4 4.1 42.2 108.0 3.2 M M
22000 -11.5 11.3 240 20 10 8.0 4.4 40.7 105.2 2.0 M M
21000 -8.6 16.5 240 19 10 9.4 5.2 40.5 105.0 1.8 M M
20000 -5.8 21.6 245 18 9 9.4 5.2 40.5 104.8 1.8 M M
19500 -4.4 24.1 245 17 9 9.0 4.9 40.4 104.7 1.8 M M
19000 -3.1 26.4 250 15 8 8.4 4.6 40.2 104.3 1.6 M M
18500 -1.2 29.8 255 11 6 8.2 4.5 39.8 103.6 1.3 M M
18000 0.0 32.0 265 9 5 5.6 3.1 39.6 103.3 1.1 M M
17500 0.2 32.4 275 7 4 -0.4 -0.2 38.1 100.6 -0.2 1126 5.7
17000 0.5 32.9 295 7 3 5.5 3.0 36.9 98.4 -1.3 1101 5.6
16500 1.2 34.2 310 11 6 4.6 2.5 36.1 97.0 -2.1 1065 5.4
16000 2.3 36.1 315 15 8 10.2 5.6 35.7 96.3 -2.5 1018 5.2
15500 3.8 38.8 305 13 7 9.8 5.3 35.7 96.3 -2.5 960 4.9
15000 5.2 41.4 300 12 6 9.7 5.3 35.7 96.3 -2.6 902 4.6
14500 6.7 44.1 300 10 5 9.7 5.3 35.7 96.3 -2.6 844 4.3
14000 8.1 46.6 300 8 4 9.7 5.3 35.7 96.3 -2.6 785 4.0
13500 9.6 49.3 300 7 4 9.4 5.2 35.7 96.2 -2.7 727 3.7
13000 10.7 51.3 300 7 4 6.9 3.8 35.4 95.7 -3.0 677 3.4
12500 11.8 53.2 300 6 3 7.1 3.9 34.9 94.9 -3.4 631 3.2
12000 12.8 55.0 300 6 3 7.1 3.9 34.5 94.2 -3.8 585 3.0
11500 13.9 57.0 320 5 2 7.1 3.9 34.1 93.4 -4.3 538 2.7
11000 14.9 58.8 350 4 2 6.9 3.8 33.7 92.6 -4.7 492 2.5
10500 16.1 61.0 020 5 3 8.9 4.9 33.4 92.1 -5.0 442 2.2
10250 16.7 62.1 030 6 3 8.3 4.6 33.3 91.9 -5.1 416 2.1
10000 17.4 63.3 035 6 3 8.5 4.7 33.2 91.7 -5.3 390 2.0
9750 18.0 64.4 045 7 4 8.4 4.6 33.1 91.6 -5.4 363 1.8
9500 18.6 65.5 050 8 4 8.4 4.6 33.0 91.4 -5.5 337 1.7
9250 19.2 66.6 050 9 5 8.4 4.6 32.9 91.2 -5.6 311 1.6
9000 19.9 67.8 055 10 5 8.4 4.6 32.8 91.1 -5.7 285 1.4
8750 20.5 68.9 060 11 6 8.5 4.6 32.7 90.9 -5.8 259 1.3
8500 21.1 70.0 065 13 7 8.4 4.6 32.6 90.7 -6.0 233 1.2
8250 21.7 71.1 065 14 7 8.5 4.7 32.5 90.5 -6.1 206 1.0
8000 22.4 72.3 070 16 8 8.2 4.5 32.4 90.3 -6.2 180 0.9
7750 22.9 73.2 070 16 8 4.9 2.7 32.2 89.9 -6.4 158 0.8
7500 23.1 73.6 070 15 8 2.8 1.5 31.7 89.0 -6.9 143 0.7
7250 23.3 73.9 065 15 8 3.4 1.8 31.2 88.1 -7.5 129 0.7
7000 23.6 74.5 065 14 7 3.2 1.8 30.7 87.2 -8.0 114 0.6
6750 23.8 74.8 070 13 7 3.2 1.8 30.2 86.3 -8.5 100 0.5
6500 24.1 75.4 075 11 6 3.3 1.8 29.7 85.4 -9.0 85 0.4
6250 24.3 75.7 080 10 5 3.2 1.7 29.2 84.5 -9.5 70 0.4
6000 24.5 76.1 090 8 4 3.5 1.9 28.7 83.6 -10.0 56 0.3
5750 24.8 76.6 095 8 4 2.4 1.3 28.2 82.7 -10.5 41 0.2
5500 25.0 77.0 095 8 4 6.2 3.4 27.7 81.8 -11.1 27 0.1
5250 24.8 76.6 100 9 4 -27.4 -15.0 26.7 80.1 -12.0 27 0.1
5000 20.4 68.7 100 9 5 -79.6 -43.7 21.6 70.9 -17.2 149 0.8

* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

07/11/2020 at 0900 MDT | 07/11/2020 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +3.7 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +3.1
CINH... -0.1 K Index... -3.0 | CINH... -1.7 K Index... -0.8
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -67.1 -88.8 285 16 8 2.4 1.3 | -66.8 -88.2 285 17 9 1.6 0.9
45000 -60.7 -77.3 280 21 11 7.2 4.0 | -61.2 -78.2 280 24 12 7.1 3.9
40000 -50.2 -58.4 275 22 12 6.1 3.3 | -50.7 -59.3 275 23 12 6.3 3.5
38000 -46.5 -51.7 270 21 11 6.1 3.3 | -46.9 -52.4 275 21 11 6.3 3.5
36000 -42.9 -45.2 270 20 11 6.8 3.7 | -42.6 -44.7 270 19 10 7.9 4.4
34000 -37.8 -36.0 265 19 10 7.5 4.1 | -37.9 -36.2 270 17 9 7.7 4.3
32000 -33.3 -27.9 265 17 9 7.5 4.1 | -33.3 -27.9 265 16 8 7.7 4.3
30000 -29.0 -20.2 265 15 8 7.3 4.0 | -28.9 -20.0 260 14 7 7.3 4.0
29000 -26.8 -16.2 265 15 7 7.3 4.0 | -26.7 -16.1 260 13 7 7.3 4.0
28000 -24.6 -12.3 260 14 7 7.5 4.1 | -24.5 -12.1 260 12 6 7.7 4.2
27000 -22.4 -8.3 260 13 7 7.5 4.1 | -22.2 -8.0 255 12 6 7.7 4.2
26000 -20.1 -4.2 255 13 6 7.5 4.1 | -19.9 -3.8 255 12 6 7.7 4.2
25000 -17.9 -0.2 255 12 6 7.5 4.1 | -17.6 0.3 255 11 6 7.3 4.0
24000 -15.6 3.9 250 11 6 7.5 4.1 | -15.4 4.3 250 11 6 7.3 4.0
23000 -13.4 7.9 245 11 5 7.5 4.1 | -13.3 8.1 250 10 5 7.3 4.0
22000 -11.1 12.0 245 10 5 7.1 3.9 | -10.6 12.9 245 10 5 6.9 3.8
21000 -8.5 16.7 250 9 5 7.1 3.9 | -8.5 16.7 245 9 5 6.9 3.8
20000 -6.4 20.5 255 8 4 7.2 3.9 | -6.5 20.3 250 8 4 7.0 3.8
19500 -5.4 22.3 255 8 4 6.5 3.6 | -5.5 22.1 250 8 4 6.4 3.5
19000 -4.4 24.1 260 8 4 6.5 3.6 | -4.6 23.7 255 8 4 6.4 3.5
18500 -3.5 25.7 265 8 4 6.6 3.6 | -3.7 25.3 255 8 4 6.7 3.7
18000 -2.5 27.5 270 7 4 7.0 3.8 | -2.6 27.3 255 8 4 7.7 4.2
17500 -1.5 29.3 270 7 4 6.9 3.8 | -1.5 29.3 260 8 4 7.6 4.2
17000 -0.4 31.3 275 7 4 8.3 4.6 | -0.3 31.5 260 8 4 8.4 4.6
16500 0.9 33.6 275 7 3 8.5 4.7 | 0.9 33.6 260 7 4 8.5 4.6
16000 2.1 35.8 275 6 3 8.7 4.8 | 2.2 36.0 260 7 4 8.7 4.8
15500 3.4 38.1 275 6 3 8.9 4.9 | 3.5 38.3 260 6 3 8.9 4.9
15000 4.8 40.6 275 6 3 8.9 4.9 | 4.9 40.8 260 6 3 8.9 4.9
14500 6.1 43.0 280 5 3 9.0 4.9 | 6.2 43.2 260 5 3 9.0 4.9
14000 7.4 45.3 280 5 2 8.9 4.9 | 7.6 45.7 260 5 2 9.0 4.9
13500 8.8 47.8 285 4 2 9.0 4.9 | 8.9 48.0 260 4 2 9.0 4.9
13000 10.1 50.2 290 4 2 9.0 4.9 | 10.2 50.4 260 4 2 9.0 4.9
12500 11.5 52.7 295 4 2 8.8 4.9 | 11.6 52.9 260 3 2 9.1 5.0
12000 12.8 55.0 295 4 2 8.8 4.8 | 13.0 55.4 265 3 1 9.2 5.0
11500 14.1 57.4 300 3 2 8.3 4.6 | 14.3 57.7 265 2 1 9.0 5.0
11000 15.3 59.5 300 2 1 8.0 4.4 | 15.7 60.3 265 2 1 9.0 4.9
10500 16.4 61.5 295 2 1 5.9 3.2 | 17.0 62.6 265 2 1 7.5 4.1
10250 16.8 62.2 290 2 1 6.0 3.3 | 17.5 63.5 260 2 1 8.2 4.5
10000 17.4 63.3 285 1 1 8.3 4.5 | 18.2 64.8 255 2 1 9.7 5.3
9750 18.0 64.4 000 0 0 7.8 4.3 | 18.9 66.0 255 2 1 9.3 5.1
9500 18.5 65.3 000 0 0 6.7 3.7 | 19.6 67.3 250 1 1 9.0 5.0
9250 19.0 66.2 000 0 0 5.6 3.1 | 20.2 68.4 245 1 1 8.5 4.7
9000 19.4 66.9 140 1 0 5.8 3.2 | 20.9 69.6 235 1 1 8.3 4.6
8750 19.8 67.6 130 1 1 5.6 3.1 | 21.5 70.7 230 1 1 8.1 4.5
8500 20.2 68.4 125 2 1 4.8 2.6 | 22.1 71.8 220 1 0 7.7 4.2
8250 20.5 68.9 125 2 1 4.2 2.3 | 22.6 72.7 210 1 0 7.1 3.9
8000 20.8 69.4 125 2 1 4.2 2.3 | 23.2 73.8 195 1 0 8.1 4.4
7750 21.1 70.0 120 2 1 3.5 1.9 | 24.4 75.9 190 1 0 8.1 4.5
7500 21.5 70.7 125 3 1 2.3 1.2 | 25.0 77.0 180 1 0 7.7 4.2
7250 21.7 71.1 125 3 2 2.4 1.3 | 25.6 78.1 000 0 0 8.9 4.9
7000 21.9 71.4 120 3 2 3.7 2.0 | 26.4 79.5 000 0 0 10.5 5.8
6750 22.2 72.0 120 3 1 4.6 2.5 | 27.1 80.8 000 0 0 10.3 5.6
6500 22.6 72.7 120 3 1 5.2 2.9 | 27.9 82.2 000 0 0 9.8 5.4
6250 22.9 73.2 115 2 1 2.6 1.4 | 28.6 83.5 000 0 0 10.7 5.8
6000 23.2 73.8 120 3 1 8.4 4.6 | 29.6 85.3 000 0 0 17.0 9.3
5750 24.4 75.9 115 3 1 25.4 13.9 | 31.2 88.2 000 0 0 25.0 13.7
5500 25.7 78.3 110 2 1 -7.1 -3.9 | 32.8 91.0 000 0 0 11.5 6.3
5250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M

07/11/2020 at 1500 MDT | 07/11/2020 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +1.7 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +0.9
CINH... 0.0 K Index... +2.7 | CINH... -0.3 K Index... +3.6
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -66.5 -87.7 285 17 9 1.3 0.7 | -66.7 -88.1 285 16 8 1.9 1.0
45000 -61.4 -78.5 280 24 12 6.8 3.7 | -61.3 -78.3 285 23 12 6.5 3.6
40000 -51.2 -60.2 280 24 12 6.7 3.6 | -51.3 -60.3 280 25 13 7.2 3.9
38000 -47.3 -53.1 280 22 11 6.7 3.6 | -46.5 -51.7 280 23 12 7.2 3.9
36000 -42.7 -44.9 275 20 10 7.9 4.3 | -42.2 -44.0 280 21 11 7.5 4.1
34000 -38.0 -36.4 270 18 9 7.8 4.3 | -37.7 -35.9 275 19 10 7.5 4.1
32000 -33.4 -28.1 265 15 8 8.0 4.4 | -33.2 -27.8 270 17 9 7.7 4.2
30000 -28.9 -20.0 265 15 8 7.5 4.1 | -28.8 -19.8 270 16 8 7.4 4.1
29000 -26.6 -15.9 260 14 7 7.5 4.1 | -26.6 -15.9 270 16 8 7.4 4.1
28000 -24.4 -11.9 260 13 7 7.4 4.0 | -24.4 -11.9 270 15 8 6.9 3.8
27000 -22.2 -8.0 260 12 6 7.4 4.0 | -22.3 -8.1 270 14 7 6.9 3.8
26000 -20.0 -4.0 260 11 6 7.4 4.0 | -20.3 -4.5 270 13 7 6.9 3.8
25000 -17.7 0.1 260 10 5 7.3 4.0 | -18.2 -0.8 270 12 6 7.1 3.9
24000 -15.5 4.1 265 10 5 7.3 4.0 | -16.1 3.0 270 11 6 7.3 4.0
23000 -13.3 8.1 265 10 5 7.4 4.0 | -13.9 7.0 270 10 5 7.3 4.0
22000 -10.7 12.7 260 9 5 6.8 3.7 | -11.2 11.8 270 9 5 7.9 4.3
21000 -8.7 16.3 255 9 4 6.9 3.8 | -8.9 16.0 270 8 4 7.8 4.3
20000 -6.7 19.9 250 8 4 6.8 3.8 | -6.5 20.3 270 8 4 7.8 4.3
19500 -5.6 21.9 250 8 4 7.6 4.2 | -5.3 22.5 270 7 4 8.3 4.6
19000 -4.5 23.9 245 8 4 7.7 4.2 | -4.1 24.6 265 7 4 8.4 4.6
18500 -3.4 25.9 245 8 4 7.9 4.3 | -2.8 27.0 265 7 3 8.4 4.6
18000 -2.2 28.0 240 8 4 8.4 4.6 | -1.5 29.3 260 6 3 8.7 4.8
17500 -0.9 30.4 240 7 4 8.4 4.6 | -0.2 31.6 260 6 3 8.7 4.8
17000 0.3 32.5 240 7 4 8.8 4.8 | 1.1 34.0 260 6 3 9.1 5.0
16500 1.6 34.9 240 7 4 8.8 4.8 | 2.5 36.5 260 6 3 9.1 5.0
16000 3.0 37.4 245 7 3 8.8 4.8 | 3.8 38.8 260 5 3 9.1 5.0
15500 4.3 39.7 245 6 3 8.9 4.9 | 5.2 41.4 265 5 3 9.1 5.0
15000 5.6 42.1 250 6 3 8.9 4.9 | 6.5 43.7 265 5 3 9.1 5.0
14500 7.0 44.6 250 6 3 9.1 5.0 | 7.9 46.2 270 5 3 9.2 5.0
14000 8.3 46.9 255 6 3 9.1 5.0 | 9.3 48.7 270 5 3 9.2 5.0
13500 9.7 49.5 255 5 3 9.2 5.1 | 10.7 51.3 275 5 3 9.2 5.0
13000 11.1 52.0 260 5 3 9.2 5.1 | 12.0 53.6 275 5 3 9.2 5.0
12500 12.5 54.5 265 5 2 9.4 5.1 | 13.4 56.1 275 5 3 9.3 5.1
12000 13.9 57.0 270 5 2 9.4 5.2 | 14.8 58.6 280 5 3 9.4 5.1
11500 15.3 59.5 270 4 2 9.5 5.2 | 16.2 61.2 280 5 3 9.3 5.1
11000 16.7 62.1 275 4 2 9.5 5.2 | 17.6 63.7 285 5 3 9.2 5.0
10500 18.1 64.6 280 4 2 7.1 3.9 | 19.0 66.2 285 5 3 6.5 3.6
10250 18.6 65.5 280 4 2 8.4 4.6 | 19.4 66.9 285 6 3 7.3 4.0
10000 19.4 66.9 280 4 2 11.2 6.1 | 20.2 68.4 285 5 3 11.4 6.3
9750 20.2 68.4 280 4 2 10.6 5.8 | 21.0 69.8 285 5 3 10.6 5.8
9500 20.9 69.6 285 4 2 9.8 5.4 | 21.8 71.2 285 5 3 9.7 5.3
9250 21.6 70.9 290 4 2 9.2 5.0 | 22.4 72.3 290 6 3 8.9 4.9
9000 22.3 72.1 290 4 2 9.9 5.4 | 23.1 73.6 290 5 3 9.7 5.3
8750 23.1 73.6 285 4 2 9.9 5.4 | 23.9 75.0 290 5 3 9.9 5.4
8500 23.8 74.8 285 4 2 9.2 5.0 | 24.6 76.3 290 5 3 9.1 5.0
8250 24.4 75.9 290 4 2 8.2 4.5 | 25.2 77.4 290 5 3 8.1 4.4
8000 25.1 77.2 295 4 2 10.4 5.7 | 25.9 78.6 290 5 3 9.5 5.2
7750 26.0 78.8 290 4 2 11.7 6.4 | 27.4 81.3 290 5 2 9.5 5.2
7500 27.4 81.3 295 4 2 8.5 4.7 | 28.1 82.6 290 5 3 8.7 4.8
7250 28.1 82.6 295 4 2 10.0 5.5 | 28.7 83.7 290 5 3 9.7 5.3
7000 28.9 84.0 295 4 2 11.7 6.4 | 29.5 85.1 290 5 3 11.3 6.2
6750 29.8 85.6 290 4 2 10.8 5.9 | 30.4 86.7 290 5 2 10.8 5.9
6500 30.6 87.1 295 4 2 11.3 6.2 | 31.2 88.2 290 5 2 10.8 5.9
6250 31.4 88.5 300 4 2 7.9 4.3 | 31.9 89.4 290 5 2 9.2 5.0
6000 32.0 89.6 290 4 2 14.7 8.1 | 32.6 90.7 290 5 2 11.2 6.1
5750 33.9 93.0 295 3 2 36.5 20.0 | 33.8 92.8 290 4 2 21.6 11.9
5500 35.9 96.6 300 4 2 -2.4 -1.3 | 35.4 95.7 295 4 2 14.4 7.9
5250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

North Latitude: 39 deg 07 min 00.001 sec
West Longitude: 108 deg 31 min 59.998 sec
Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Western Slope of
Colorado. Note that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models
differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to data which appear
to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page. To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.

CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:

below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.

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