Grand Junction Soaring Forecast

We are testing a new soaring forecast program. During this testing phase, the soaring forecast may not always be available or may not be updated. Please check the date of the soaring forecast before using the data. Feedback to our webmaster regarding this new soaring forecast program will be appreciated.

465
UXUS97 KGJT 111307
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
707 AM MDT Friday, October 11, 2024

This forecast is for Friday, October 11, 2024:

If the trigger temperature of 80.4 F/26.9 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
Maximum rate of lift........................ 1360 ft/min (6.9 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 18512 ft MSL (13673 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 84.0 F/29.3 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1345 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 7182 ft MSL (2343 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Saturday 10/12..... Excellent

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:20:38 / 18:40:41 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 20 min 3 sec (680 min 3 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:00:40 MDT... 43.46 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 10/11/2024 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 14306 ft MSL (9467 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 18276 ft MSL (13437 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 18370 ft MSL (13531 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +3.8
K index......................... +11.6

Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -64.1 -83.4 265 51 26 2.6 1.4 90.6 195.1 35.5 M M
45000 -61.7 -79.1 270 59 30 -0.4 -0.2 68.9 156.1 24.8 M M
40000 -59.6 -75.3 255 48 25 9.7 5.3 49.2 120.5 13.4 M M
38000 -54.1 -65.4 255 49 25 8.5 4.7 48.7 119.6 13.5 M M
36000 -49.0 -56.2 260 47 24 8.7 4.8 47.7 117.8 13.1 M M
34000 -43.7 -46.7 265 43 22 8.9 4.9 46.8 116.3 12.8 M M
32000 -38.8 -37.8 250 36 19 8.4 4.6 45.5 113.9 12.2 M M
30000 -32.5 -26.5 245 35 18 7.8 4.3 45.3 113.5 12.3 M M
29000 -30.5 -22.9 250 34 18 6.6 3.6 44.0 111.2 11.5 M M
28000 -28.4 -19.1 245 34 17 7.8 4.3 43.0 109.5 10.9 M M
27000 -26.3 -15.3 250 32 16 6.6 3.6 42.0 107.6 10.2 M M
26000 -24.3 -11.7 245 31 16 6.6 3.6 40.8 105.4 9.4 M M
25000 -22.2 -8.0 245 26 13 7.2 3.9 39.8 103.6 8.7 M M
24000 -20.0 -4.0 250 25 13 7.5 4.1 38.9 102.0 8.1 M M
23000 -17.7 0.1 260 28 14 7.2 4.0 38.0 100.4 7.5 M M
22000 -16.2 2.8 265 23 12 5.1 2.8 36.3 97.3 6.1 M M
21000 -14.7 5.5 265 22 11 5.2 2.9 34.6 94.4 4.8 M M
20000 -13.7 7.3 255 20 10 -3.2 -1.8 32.3 90.2 2.8 M M
19500 -14.1 6.6 250 18 9 -2.1 -1.2 30.3 86.5 1.0 M M
19000 -13.4 7.9 250 15 8 10.7 5.9 29.5 85.1 0.2 M M
18500 -12.2 10.0 240 17 9 8.9 4.9 29.3 84.7 0.0 M M
18000 -10.8 12.6 225 14 7 9.0 4.9 29.1 84.5 -0.1 1316 6.7
17500 -9.5 14.9 225 14 7 9.5 5.2 29.1 84.3 -0.2 1260 6.4
17000 -7.4 18.7 235 16 8 9.4 5.2 29.1 84.3 -0.2 1175 6.0
16500 -6.0 21.2 235 16 8 9.4 5.2 29.1 84.3 -0.2 1118 5.7
16000 -4.6 23.7 240 13 7 9.4 5.2 29.1 84.3 -0.3 1061 5.4
15500 -3.2 26.2 250 17 9 9.4 5.2 29.0 84.2 -0.3 1004 5.1
15000 -1.7 28.9 255 21 11 9.4 5.2 29.0 84.2 -0.3 947 4.8
14500 -0.3 31.5 260 20 10 9.4 5.2 28.9 84.1 -0.4 890 4.5
14000 1.1 34.0 255 18 9 9.4 5.2 28.9 84.0 -0.4 833 4.2
13500 2.5 36.5 255 18 9 9.4 5.2 28.8 83.9 -0.5 776 3.9
13000 3.9 39.0 260 16 8 9.4 5.2 28.8 83.8 -0.5 719 3.7
12500 5.3 41.5 260 18 9 9.4 5.2 28.7 83.6 -0.6 662 3.4
12000 6.7 44.1 265 17 9 9.4 5.2 28.6 83.5 -0.7 605 3.1
11500 8.1 46.6 285 17 9 9.4 5.2 28.5 83.3 -0.8 548 2.8
11000 9.5 49.1 275 16 8 9.4 5.1 28.4 83.1 -0.9 490 2.5
10500 10.8 51.4 275 11 6 8.3 4.6 28.3 82.9 -1.1 437 2.2
10250 11.4 52.5 260 10 5 8.1 4.5 28.1 82.7 -1.2 411 2.1
10000 12.0 53.6 240 10 5 8.2 4.5 28.0 82.5 -1.3 386 2.0
9750 12.6 54.7 240 9 5 8.2 4.5 27.9 82.2 -1.4 360 1.8
9500 13.3 55.9 250 7 3 8.2 4.5 27.8 82.0 -1.5 335 1.7
9250 13.9 57.0 245 8 4 8.2 4.5 27.7 81.8 -1.7 309 1.6
9000 14.5 58.1 250 10 5 8.2 4.5 27.5 81.6 -1.8 284 1.4
8750 15.1 59.2 250 11 6 8.2 4.5 27.4 81.4 -1.9 258 1.3
8500 15.7 60.3 245 10 5 8.2 4.5 27.3 81.1 -2.1 233 1.2
8250 16.3 61.3 245 8 4 8.2 4.5 27.2 80.9 -2.2 207 1.1
8000 16.9 62.4 240 7 4 8.2 4.5 27.0 80.7 -2.3 182 0.9
7750 17.5 63.5 220 7 3 8.1 4.5 26.9 80.5 -2.5 156 0.8
7500 18.1 64.6 180 8 4 8.4 4.6 26.8 80.2 -2.6 131 0.7
7250 18.6 65.5 160 12 6 5.6 3.0 26.6 79.9 -2.8 106 0.5
7000 18.9 66.0 150 17 9 4.3 2.4 26.2 79.1 -3.2 90 0.5
6750 19.1 66.4 150 17 9 -3.1 -1.7 25.6 78.1 -3.8 77 0.4
6500 18.6 65.5 145 16 8 -4.7 -2.6 24.4 75.9 -5.1 86 0.4
6250 18.6 65.5 135 13 7 2.4 1.3 23.6 74.6 -5.8 77 0.4
6000 18.7 65.7 135 14 7 -1.4 -0.8 23.0 73.4 -6.4 67 0.3
5750 18.5 65.3 140 15 8 -2.8 -1.5 22.0 71.6 -7.4 66 0.3
5500 18.5 65.3 140 17 9 5.1 2.8 21.3 70.4 -8.1 59 0.3
5250 18.7 65.7 135 16 8 -5.7 -3.1 20.8 69.5 -8.7 45 0.2
5000 17.0 62.6 125 15 8 -39.5 -21.7 18.4 65.1 -11.1 88 0.4

* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

10/11/2024 at 0900 MDT | 10/11/2024 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +3.0 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +2.2
CINH... 0.0 K Index... +12.4 | CINH... -0.1 K Index... +14.9
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.6 -82.5 270 48 25 1.3 0.7 | -63.3 -81.9 275 47 24 0.7 0.4
45000 -61.5 -78.7 270 54 28 1.8 1.0 | -61.6 -78.9 270 54 28 2.6 1.4
40000 -58.1 -72.6 255 48 25 7.9 4.4 | -57.1 -70.8 265 51 26 7.1 3.9
38000 -53.7 -64.7 255 48 25 7.3 4.0 | -53.2 -63.8 260 49 25 6.6 3.6
36000 -49.3 -56.7 250 48 25 7.4 4.0 | -49.2 -56.6 255 47 24 6.6 3.6
34000 -44.2 -47.6 250 45 23 8.8 4.8 | -44.8 -48.6 255 45 23 7.6 4.1
32000 -38.9 -38.0 245 40 21 8.8 4.8 | -40.3 -40.5 255 42 22 7.6 4.2
30000 -34.3 -29.7 250 37 19 7.2 4.0 | -35.6 -32.1 260 40 21 7.8 4.3
29000 -32.2 -26.0 250 36 19 7.2 4.0 | -33.3 -27.9 265 40 21 7.8 4.3
28000 -30.0 -22.0 250 35 18 7.2 4.0 | -31.0 -23.8 265 39 20 7.8 4.3
27000 -27.9 -18.2 250 34 18 7.1 3.9 | -28.7 -19.7 270 38 19 7.6 4.2
26000 -25.8 -14.4 255 33 17 7.1 3.9 | -26.4 -15.5 270 36 18 7.6 4.2
25000 -23.2 -9.8 255 32 16 7.0 3.8 | -23.6 -10.5 270 33 17 7.6 4.1
24000 -21.1 -6.0 260 29 15 6.7 3.7 | -21.4 -6.5 265 31 16 7.2 4.0
23000 -19.1 -2.4 260 26 14 6.7 3.7 | -19.2 -2.6 265 28 14 7.2 4.0
22000 -17.1 1.2 265 24 12 6.4 3.5 | -17.0 1.4 265 25 13 6.6 3.6
21000 -15.3 4.5 265 23 12 6.1 3.3 | -15.3 4.5 265 23 12 5.6 3.1
20000 -13.5 7.7 265 22 11 6.1 3.3 | -13.7 7.3 265 22 11 5.6 3.1
19500 -12.5 9.5 265 21 11 6.1 3.3 | -12.8 9.0 265 21 11 5.6 3.1
19000 -11.7 10.9 270 21 11 6.0 3.3 | -12.0 10.4 265 21 11 6.1 3.4
18500 -10.8 12.6 270 21 11 6.1 3.3 | -11.1 12.0 265 21 11 6.1 3.4
18000 -9.9 14.2 270 21 11 6.7 3.7 | -10.2 13.6 265 21 11 7.0 3.8
17500 -8.9 16.0 265 21 11 7.1 3.9 | -9.1 15.6 265 22 11 7.4 4.1
17000 -7.8 18.0 265 21 11 7.3 4.0 | -8.0 17.6 270 22 11 7.7 4.2
16500 -6.7 19.9 265 20 11 8.4 4.6 | -6.8 19.8 265 22 11 8.8 4.8
16000 -5.4 22.3 265 20 10 8.3 4.5 | -5.6 21.9 265 22 11 8.7 4.8
15500 -4.2 24.4 265 20 10 8.9 4.9 | -4.2 24.4 265 22 11 9.2 5.0
15000 -2.9 26.8 260 20 10 8.9 4.9 | -2.9 26.8 260 21 11 9.1 5.0
14500 -1.5 29.3 260 20 10 9.1 5.0 | -1.5 29.3 260 21 11 9.2 5.1
14000 -0.2 31.6 260 19 10 9.1 5.0 | -0.1 31.8 260 21 11 9.3 5.1
13500 1.2 34.2 260 19 10 9.2 5.0 | 1.2 34.2 260 20 10 9.2 5.1
13000 2.6 36.7 260 18 10 9.2 5.0 | 2.6 36.7 255 20 10 9.2 5.1
12500 4.0 39.2 260 18 9 9.2 5.0 | 4.0 39.2 255 19 10 9.2 5.0
12000 5.3 41.5 255 17 9 9.1 5.0 | 5.4 41.7 255 18 9 9.1 5.0
11500 6.7 44.1 255 17 9 9.0 5.0 | 6.8 44.2 255 18 9 9.0 5.0
11000 8.0 46.4 255 16 8 8.7 4.8 | 8.1 46.6 250 17 9 8.8 4.8
10500 9.3 48.7 255 15 8 8.1 4.5 | 9.4 48.9 250 16 8 7.8 4.3
10250 9.9 49.8 250 15 8 7.8 4.3 | 10.0 50.0 245 16 8 7.5 4.1
10000 10.5 50.9 250 14 7 8.9 4.9 | 10.6 51.1 245 15 8 9.2 5.0
9750 11.2 52.2 250 14 7 9.4 5.1 | 11.3 52.3 245 14 7 9.5 5.2
9500 11.9 53.4 245 13 7 8.4 4.6 | 12.0 53.6 245 13 7 8.9 4.9
9250 12.5 54.5 245 12 6 7.3 4.0 | 12.7 54.9 240 13 6 8.3 4.5
9000 13.5 56.3 235 10 5 6.9 3.8 | 13.3 55.9 240 12 6 7.9 4.3
8750 14.0 57.2 230 9 5 6.1 3.4 | 13.8 56.8 235 11 6 7.8 4.3
8500 14.4 57.9 225 8 4 5.4 2.9 | 14.9 58.8 225 9 4 6.1 3.3
8250 14.8 58.6 215 7 4 5.3 2.9 | 15.4 59.7 220 8 4 7.0 3.9
8000 15.2 59.4 205 7 4 4.8 2.6 | 16.0 60.8 215 7 4 8.1 4.4
7750 15.5 59.9 190 7 4 4.6 2.5 | 16.5 61.7 205 7 3 7.1 3.9
7500 15.9 60.6 185 7 4 4.7 2.6 | 17.0 62.6 200 6 3 6.1 3.4
7250 16.2 61.2 175 8 4 4.6 2.5 | 17.5 63.5 190 6 3 7.0 3.8
7000 16.6 61.9 170 8 4 3.5 1.9 | 18.1 64.6 185 5 3 9.3 5.1
6750 16.8 62.2 165 7 4 2.5 1.4 | 18.8 65.8 190 5 3 9.8 5.4
6500 17.0 62.6 160 7 3 3.7 2.0 | 19.5 67.1 185 5 2 9.3 5.1
6250 17.2 63.0 150 6 3 0.3 0.2 | 20.2 68.4 185 4 2 8.8 4.8
6000 16.9 62.4 145 8 4 -5.9 -3.2 | 20.9 69.6 170 5 2 13.3 7.3
5750 16.4 61.5 135 6 3 -6.3 -3.4 | 22.3 72.1 165 4 2 22.9 12.6
5500 15.9 60.6 110 4 2 -8.5 -4.7 | 23.7 74.7 165 4 2 5.3 2.9
5250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M

10/11/2024 at 1500 MDT | 10/11/2024 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +0.7 LI... +1.2 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +1.3
CINH... -0.4 K Index... +17.0 | CINH... -0.0 K Index... +15.7
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.4 -82.1 275 50 26 1.2 0.7 | -64.1 -83.4 275 51 26 1.2 0.7
45000 -61.4 -78.5 275 58 30 1.8 1.0 | -61.9 -79.4 280 57 30 2.3 1.3
40000 -58.1 -72.6 280 53 27 8.1 4.4 | -57.9 -72.2 285 56 29 7.5 4.1
38000 -53.7 -64.7 280 49 25 7.4 4.1 | -53.6 -64.5 280 49 25 7.0 3.9
36000 -49.2 -56.6 280 44 23 7.4 4.1 | -49.4 -56.9 280 41 21 7.1 3.9
34000 -44.7 -48.5 285 42 22 7.7 4.2 | -44.7 -48.5 280 38 19 8.2 4.5
32000 -40.1 -40.2 285 41 21 7.7 4.2 | -39.8 -39.6 285 36 18 8.2 4.5
30000 -35.4 -31.7 285 39 20 7.9 4.3 | -34.8 -30.6 285 33 17 8.2 4.5
29000 -33.0 -27.4 285 37 19 7.9 4.3 | -32.4 -26.3 290 32 16 8.2 4.5
28000 -30.7 -23.3 285 36 18 7.8 4.3 | -29.9 -21.8 290 30 16 8.1 4.5
27000 -28.4 -19.1 280 34 18 7.4 4.1 | -27.7 -17.9 290 30 15 7.0 3.9
26000 -26.2 -15.2 280 33 17 7.4 4.1 | -25.6 -14.1 285 29 15 7.1 3.9
25000 -23.5 -10.3 280 31 16 7.5 4.1 | -23.5 -10.3 285 29 15 7.1 3.9
24000 -21.2 -6.2 275 29 15 7.4 4.1 | -20.9 -5.6 280 27 14 7.0 3.8
23000 -19.0 -2.2 275 27 14 7.4 4.1 | -18.8 -1.8 275 25 13 7.0 3.8
22000 -16.8 1.8 270 25 13 6.5 3.6 | -16.8 1.8 275 23 12 6.6 3.6
21000 -15.2 4.6 265 23 12 5.3 2.9 | -15.0 5.0 265 22 11 6.0 3.3
20000 -13.7 7.3 255 21 11 5.3 2.9 | -13.2 8.2 255 22 11 6.0 3.3
19500 -12.9 8.8 250 21 11 5.4 3.0 | -12.3 9.9 255 22 11 6.0 3.3
19000 -12.0 10.4 250 20 10 6.6 3.6 | -11.4 11.5 250 22 11 6.6 3.6
18500 -11.1 12.0 245 20 10 6.5 3.6 | -10.5 13.1 245 21 11 6.6 3.6
18000 -10.1 13.8 245 19 10 7.6 4.1 | -9.5 14.9 240 21 11 7.7 4.2
17500 -8.9 16.0 245 19 10 8.0 4.4 | -8.3 17.1 240 20 10 8.2 4.5
17000 -7.8 18.0 245 19 10 8.2 4.5 | -7.1 19.2 235 20 10 8.3 4.6
16500 -6.5 20.3 250 19 10 9.1 5.0 | -5.8 21.6 235 19 10 8.9 4.9
16000 -5.2 22.6 250 19 10 9.0 5.0 | -4.5 23.9 235 19 10 8.9 4.9
15500 -3.8 25.2 250 19 10 9.2 5.0 | -3.2 26.2 235 19 10 9.1 5.0
15000 -2.4 27.7 250 18 9 9.2 5.0 | -1.8 28.8 235 19 10 9.1 5.0
14500 -1.1 30.0 250 18 9 9.4 5.2 | -0.5 31.1 235 19 10 9.1 5.0
14000 0.4 32.7 250 17 9 9.5 5.2 | 0.9 33.6 235 18 9 9.1 5.0
13500 1.8 35.2 250 17 9 9.4 5.2 | 2.3 36.1 235 18 9 9.3 5.1
13000 3.2 37.8 250 16 8 9.4 5.1 | 3.7 38.7 240 18 9 9.4 5.2
12500 4.6 40.3 250 16 8 9.4 5.2 | 5.1 41.2 240 18 9 9.4 5.2
12000 6.0 42.8 250 15 8 9.5 5.2 | 6.5 43.7 240 17 9 9.3 5.1
11500 7.4 45.3 250 15 8 9.5 5.2 | 7.8 46.0 245 17 9 9.3 5.1
11000 8.8 47.8 250 14 7 9.4 5.1 | 9.2 48.6 245 17 9 9.1 5.0
10500 10.3 50.5 250 13 7 8.7 4.8 | 10.6 51.1 245 16 8 8.0 4.4
10250 10.9 51.6 250 13 7 8.7 4.8 | 11.2 52.2 250 16 8 8.2 4.5
10000 11.6 52.9 250 12 6 9.7 5.3 | 11.9 53.4 250 16 8 9.9 5.5
9750 12.3 54.1 250 12 6 9.5 5.2 | 12.6 54.7 250 15 8 9.5 5.2
9500 13.0 55.4 250 12 6 9.8 5.4 | 13.3 55.9 255 15 8 9.8 5.4
9250 13.8 56.8 255 11 6 10.0 5.5 | 14.0 57.2 255 15 8 9.9 5.4
9000 14.5 58.1 260 11 5 9.0 4.9 | 14.8 58.6 255 14 7 9.1 5.0
8750 15.1 59.2 255 10 5 8.4 4.6 | 16.1 61.0 260 13 7 8.5 4.7
8500 16.3 61.3 260 9 5 7.2 3.9 | 16.7 62.1 260 13 7 7.9 4.3
8250 16.9 62.4 265 9 4 9.0 4.9 | 17.3 63.1 265 13 7 8.5 4.7
8000 17.7 63.9 265 8 4 11.5 6.3 | 18.0 64.4 265 12 6 9.7 5.3
7750 18.5 65.3 260 8 4 9.6 5.3 | 18.7 65.7 265 11 6 8.7 4.8
7500 19.1 66.4 265 8 4 7.8 4.3 | 19.3 66.7 270 11 5 7.5 4.1
7250 19.8 67.6 270 8 4 9.2 5.1 | 19.8 67.6 270 11 5 8.3 4.5
7000 20.5 68.9 270 7 4 11.8 6.5 | 20.5 68.9 275 10 5 10.1 5.5
6750 21.4 70.5 265 7 4 11.1 6.1 | 21.3 70.3 275 9 4 10.2 5.6
6500 22.2 72.0 270 7 4 10.2 5.6 | 22.0 71.6 275 9 4 9.4 5.1
6250 22.9 73.2 280 7 4 8.9 4.9 | 22.7 72.9 280 9 4 9.6 5.2
6000 23.7 74.7 270 7 3 13.5 7.4 | 23.4 74.1 280 8 4 6.5 3.6
5750 25.2 77.4 275 6 3 26.4 14.5 | 23.7 74.7 280 6 3 2.3 1.3
5500 26.7 80.1 285 6 3 2.0 1.1 | 24.1 75.4 290 5 3 12.4 6.8
5250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
5000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

North Latitude: 39 deg 07 min 00.001 sec
West Longitude: 108 deg 31 min 59.998 sec
Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Western Slope of
Colorado. Note that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models
differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to data which appear
to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page. To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.

CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:

below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.

042613