SPC Mesoscale Discussion 1895 on 14 October 2014

Areas of Severe Thunderstorms and Excessive Rainfall through This Weekend

A multi-day thunderstorm and heavy rain event will impact the south-central U.S. this Memorial Day weekend. Severe thunderstorms may produce large hail, severe gusts, and a possible tornado or two across portions of the central and southern Plains through Monday. The threat for heavy to excessive rainfall and possible flash flooding will return to the south-central U.S., especially in the Ozarks. Read More >

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1895 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0529 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF E-CENTRAL GA ...WRN AND CENTRAL SC AND WRN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 548... VALID 142229Z - 150000Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 548 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT MAY BE HIGHEST ACROSS PARTS OF FAR E-CENTRAL GA INTO WRN/CENTRAL SC THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THE THREAT SHOULD THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING TOWARD WRN NC. DISCUSSION...AT LEAST AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH AREA. LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF TORNADOES WITH 0-1 KM SRH NEAR 350 M2/S2 PER REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILES. ADDITIONALLY...A CORRIDOR EXISTS NEAR FAR E-CENTRAL GA INTO WRN SC WHERE SOME AIRMASS RECOVERY HAS LIKELY OCCURRED AND SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW 70S. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY BE MAXIMIZED IN THIS AREA WHERE BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS JUXTAPOSED WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMICS. OVER THE LAST 30 MINUTES OR SO RADAR REFLECTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN THE EWD ADVANCING LINE SEGMENTS AND EVEN SOME WEAK MID TO LOW LEVEL ROTATION WAS NOTED IN RECENT BASE VELOCITY DATA FROM THE KGSP RADAR. IN ADDITION TO BRIEF TORNADOES...A FEW STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS THE LINE CONTINUES TO LIFT THE ENE INTO WRN NC...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH GIVEN A COOLER AIRMASS AND LOWER DEWPOINT ENVIRONMENT WHERE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS BEEN OCCURRING. ..LEITMAN.. 10/14/2014 ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... LAT...LON 35638309 36778078 36578023 34028031 33178199 33098270 33178311 33758334 35638309