A powerful Fall storm is forecast to impact the Northwest and West-Central coasts of Alaska into the weekend with gale to storm-force winds, coastal flooding, high surf, beach erosion and inland high winds. Much below normal temperatures will prevail across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes Thursday and Friday and the East Coast this weekend behind a strong cold front. Read More >
Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Weather Forecast Office
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
LAST UPDATED FRIDAY, MARCH 31, 2017
...Modest Drought Improvement Observed Across the North Carolina Central and Northern Mountains While Remainder of the Western Carolinas and Northeast Georgia Await Much-Needed Significant Rainfall to Begin April... INTERMEDIATE STATEMENT #2017I1 ===================================================================== SYNOPSIS... ===================================================================== Just prior to the rainfall on March 31, 2017 and the anticipated wet start to April, drought conditions have improved modestly across the North Carolina central and northern mountains due to a wetter March. While departures from normal precip in March were less than they were in February, the lack of near-normal to above-normal precip outside of the interior mountain regions allowed drought conditions to persist through March 30, 2017. The dry conditions actually allowed groundwater and streamflow values to fall further behind and complicated attempts to recharge water supplies before the summer months, especially along the Keowee-Toxaway-Savannah Basin. However, important rainfall occurred on March 31, 2017 and additional significant rainfall will fall across the entire region during the first week of April. This rainfall is expected to contribute significantly to the recharge necessary to prepare for the seasonal peak in water demand but is not anticipated to completely overcome long-term deficits. Therefore, this drought information statement has been produced in order to provide a historical marker for the current drought prior to this anticipated partial recharge. ===================================================================== CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS BY COUNTY... ===================================================================== Drought intensity from the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) occupying at least 25% of surface area in each county is listed below... ------------ ..GEORGIA... ------------ COUNTY CATEGORY INTENSITY D1 DROUGHT AS OF: AS OF: BEGAN*: Aug| Nov| Dec| Feb| Mar Mar. 28 16 | 01 | 20 | 07 | 28 Elbert D2 | D3 | D4 | D2 | D2 Severe 05/03/16 Franklin D3 | D3 | D4 | D2 | D2 Severe 04/26/16 Habersham D1 | D3 | D4 | D3 | D3 Extreme 04/26/16 Hart D2 | D3 | D4 | D2 | D2 Severe 04/26/16 Rabun D1 | D3 | D3 | D2 | D3 Extreme 04/26/16 Stephens D2 | D3 | D4 | D2 | D3 Extreme 04/26/16 ------------------- ..NORTH CAROLINA... ------------------- COUNTY CATEGORY INTENSITY D1 DROUGHT AS OF: AS OF: BEGAN*: Aug| Nov| Dec| Feb| Mar Mar. 28 16 | 01 | 20 | 07 | 28 Alexander NO | D0 | D1 | D0 | D1 Moderate 11/08/16 Avery NO | D1 | D1 | D0 | D1 Moderate 09/20/16 Buncombe D0 | D2 | D2 | D1 | D2 Severe 05/03/16 Burke NO | D2 | D1 | D0 | D2 Severe 09/20/16 Cabarrus NO | NO | D1 | NO | D0 Abnormally Dry Ended 01/24/17 Caldwell NO | D1 | D1 | D0 | D2 Severe 09/20/16 Catawba NO | D1 | D1 | D0 | D2 Severe 11/01/16 Cleveland NO | D2 | D2 | D1 | D2 Severe 09/27/16 Davie NO | D0 | D1 | D0 | D1 Moderate 11/15/16 Gaston D0 | D1 | D1 | D0 | D1 Moderate 10/25/16 Graham D1 | D3 | D3 | D2 | D2 Severe 05/03/16 Haywood D1 | D2 | D2 | D1 | D2 Severe 05/03/16 Henderson NO | D3 | D2 | D1 | D2 Severe 09/20/16 Iredell NO | D0 | D1 | D0 | D1 Moderate 11/08/16 Jackson D1 | D2 | D3 | D2 | D2 Severe 05/03/16 Lincoln D0 | D1 | D1 | D0 | D1 Moderate 10/25/16 Macon D1 | D3 | D3 | D2 | D2 Severe 05/03/16 Madison D0 | D2 | D2 | D1 | D1 Moderate 05/03/16 McDowell NO | D2 | D2 | D1 | D2 Severe 09/20/16 Mecklenburg D0 | NO | D1 | NO | D0 Abnormally Dry Ended 01/24/17 Mitchell NO | D1 | D1 | D0 | D0 Abnormally Dry 09/20/16 Polk NO | D3 | D2 | D1 | D2 Severe 09/20/16 Rowan NO | NO | D1 | NO | D1 Moderate 03/14/17 Rutherford NO | D2 | D2 | D1 | D2 Severe 09/20/16 Swain D0 | D3 | D3 | D1 | D2 Severe 05/03/16 Transylvania D0 | D3 | D2 | D1 | D2 Severe 09/20/16 Union NO | NO | D1 | NO | D0 Abnormally Dry Ended 01/24/17 Yancey D0 | D1 | D1 | D0 | D1 Moderate 09/20/16 ------------------- ..SOUTH CAROLINA... ------------------- COUNTY CATEGORY INTENSITY D1 DROUGHT AS OF: AS OF: BEGAN*: Aug| Nov| Dec| Feb| Mar Mar. 28 16 | 01 | 20 | 07 | 28 Abbeville D3 | D3 | D3 | D2 | D2 Severe 05/03/16 Anderson D2 | D3 | D3 | D2 | D2 Severe 05/03/16 Cherokee D0 | D2 | D2 | D0 | D2 Severe 09/27/16 Chester D0 | D0 | D2 | D0 | D1 Moderate 11/15/16 Greenville D0 | D3 | D3 | D1 | D2 Severe 05/10/16 Greenwood D2 | D1 | D2 | D1 | D1 Moderate 06/28/16 Laurens D1 | D3 | D2 | D1 | D2 Severe 07/12/16 Oconee D1 | D3 | D3 | D2 | D3 Extreme 04/26/16 Pickens D1 | D3 | D3 | D1 | D3 Extreme 05/03/16 Spartanburg D0 | D3 | D2 | D1 | D2 Severe 07/05/16 Union D0 | D1 | D2 | D1 | D2 Severe 10/25/16 York D0 | D1 | D2 | D0 | D1 Moderate 10/25/16 DEFINITIONS... D1 DROUGHT BEGAN: The date D1 conditions began for a given county. In order for a county to be removed from drought and the D1 DROUGHT BEGAN date to be reset, the county must receive a NO drought classification. D0 is not technically a drought category, but it also can indicate lingering drought conditions remain and therefore cannot be used to end a drought. For example, if a county was in D1, then upgraded to D0 for 4 weeks, then returns to D1 on the fifth week, the DROUGHT BEGAN date is NOT reset because D0 conditions never ended and the county therefore never fully recovered from the drought. USDM CLASSIFICATIONS... D0 Abnormally Dry: - 21st-30th precipitation percentile - 21-30 percent chance of occurrence IN ANY GIVEN YEAR - OVER A LONG-TERM AVERAGE, occurs once every 3 years - Going into drought: Short-term dryness slowing planting, growth of crops or pastures; - Coming out of drought: Some lingering water deficits; pastures or crops not fully recovered; - Streamflows below 30th percentile D1 Moderate Drought: - 11th-20th precipitation percentile - 11-20 percent chance of occurrence IN ANY GIVEN YEAR - OVER A LONG-TERM AVERAGE, occurs once every 5 years - Some damage to crops, pastures; - Streams, reservoirs, or wells low, some water shortages developing or imminent; - Streamflows below 20th percentile D2 Severe Drought: - 6th-10th precipitation percentile - 6-10 percent chance of occurrence IN ANY GIVEN YEAR - OVER A LONG-TERM AVERAGE, occurs once every 10 years - Crop or pasture losses likely; - Water shortages or restrictions common; - Streamflows below 10th percentile D3 Extreme Drought: - 3rd-5th precipitation percentile - 3-5 percent chance of occurrence IN ANY GIVEN YEAR - OVER A LONG-TERM AVERAGE, occurs once every 20 years - Major crop/pasture losses; - Widespread water shortages or restrictions; - Streamflows below 5th percentile D4 Exceptional Drought:- 0-2nd precipitation percentile - Less than 2 percent chance of occurrence IN ANY GIVEN YEAR - OVER A LONG-TERM AVERAGE, occurs once every 50 years - Exceptional and widespread crop/pasture losses; - Shortages of water in reservoirs, streams, and wells creating water emergencies; - Streamflows below 2nd percentile -------------------------------- ..COMPARISON TO PAST DROUGHTS... -------------------------------- The 2007-2009 drought was the worst drought for western North Carolina, upstate South Carolina, and Northeast Georgia in terms of severity and extent since the categorization of drought began in 2000. The current drought is not yet as significant as the 2007-2009 drought. For comparison purposes, the 2007-2008 drought began (classified as the first presence of D1 conditions anywhere in the region) in February 2007 and ended in early May of 2009 for a total duration of 26 months. During this drought there was an initial intensity peak in late December of 2007, followed by a modest improvement during the spring of 2008, but then the drought re-strengthened through the summer and fall of 2008 before gradually weakening through the winter and spring of 2009. Cabarrus, Mecklenburg, Rowan, and Union counties in North Carolina experienced an earlier end to the drought from October to early December of 2008. ===================================================================== SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... ===================================================================== ----------------- ..AGRICULTURAL... ----------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. Department of Agriculture Agricultural Drought Disaster Counties ------------------------as of January 4, 2017------------------------ --------------------------------------------------------------------- As of March 22, 2017: STATE COUNTY TYPE Georgia Elbert Primary Georgia Franklin Primary Georgia Habersham Primary Georgia Hart Primary Georgia Rabun Primary Georgia Stephens Primary North Carolina Alexander No Disaster Designation North Carolina Avery No Disaster Designation North Carolina Buncombe Contiguous North Carolina Burke Contiguous North Carolina Caldwell No Disaster Designation North Carolina Catawba Contiguous North Carolina Cleveland Primary North Carolina Davie No Disaster Designation North Carolina Gaston Primary North Carolina Graham Contiguous North Carolina Haywood Primary North Carolina Henderson Contiguous North Carolina Iredell Contiguous North Carolina Jackson Contiguous North Carolina Lincoln Primary North Carolina Macon Primary North Carolina Madison Primary North Carolina McDowell No Disaster Designation North Carolina Mecklenburg Contiguous North Carolina Mitchell No Disaster Designation North Carolina Polk Contiguous North Carolina Rowan No Disaster Designation North Carolina Rutherford Contiguous North Carolina Swain Primary North Carolina Transylvania Contiguous North Carolina Union No Disaster Designation North Carolina Yancey Contiguous South Carolina Abbeville Primary South Carolina Anderson Primary South Carolina Cherokee Primary South Carolina Chester Primary South Carolina Greenville Primary South Carolina Greenwood Primary South Carolina Laurens Primary South Carolina Oconee Primary South Carolina Pickens Primary South Carolina Spartanburg Primary South Carolina Union Primary South Carolina York Primary For more information on requesting assistance, please visit: https://www.fsa.usda.gov/programs-and-services/ disaster-assistance-program/index --------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------- ..RECREATIONAL... ----------------- Savannah Basin lakes continue to experience well-below target reservoir levels and impacts to boat ramps, docks, beaches, marinas, and other recreational areas continue. Visitors are encouraged to contact reservoir operators before travelling in order to stay abreast of specific access point closures. Visitors and residents to Lake Hartwell are being advised to take greater care when boating and fishing as the well-below target reservoir levels are revealing additional obstructions such as rocks and tree stumps or bringing underwater obstructions closer to the surface. Some lake coves have dried up to unnavigable and/or unusable levels. As a result, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is strongly advising boaters to stay within the main channel whenever possible. Declining reservoir pools and drying coves are forcing residents and marina operators to move or close docks and relocate boats. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------ KNOWN BOAT RAMP/ACCESS CLOSURES*------------------ --------------------------------------------------------------------- RESERVOIR | RAMP/ACCESS AREA | NOTES Hartwell | Apple Island | Hartwell | Big Oaks | Left Lane Closed Hartwell | Broyles | Left and Right Lanes Closed Hartwell | Cleveland | Hartwell | Durham | Hartwell | Friendship | Left Lane Closed Hartwell | Jarrett | Hartwell | Oconee Point Campground | Hartwell | Paynes Creek Campground | Inside Ramp Closed Hartwell | Poplar Springs | Left Lane Closed Hartwell | River Forks | Right Lane Closed Hartwell | Spring Branch | Hartwell | Springfield Campground | Hartwell | Tabor | Hartwell | Townville | Hartwell | Walker Creek | DEFINITIONS: *CLOSURES = Closures may not be due to drought and may be due to scheduled maintenance. --------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------ MAINSTEM RIVER RUNNABLE STATUS ------------------- (as of March 30, 2017) --------------------------------------------------------------------- RIVER | RUNNABLE (BOATING) STATUS Broad (GA) | Not Recommended Broad (NC) | Lower Runnable Broad (SC) | Lower Runnable Catawba | Above Lake James: Lower Runnable Chattooga | Upper: Not Recommended / Lower: Lower Runnable Enoree | Upper: Lower Runnable / Lower: Not Recommended French Broad | Upper Fks: Not Recommended / Main: Lower Runnable Little Tennessee | Lower Runnable Nantahala | Not Recommended Pacolet | Not Recommended Pigeon | Upper Fks: Not Recommended / Main: Lower Runnable Reedy | Upper: Not Recommended / Lower: Lower Runnable Rocky (NC) | Runnable Saluda | Not Recommended Swannanoa | Not Recommended Tallulah | Not Recommended Tuckasegee | Not Recommended Tyger | Not Recommended Yadkin | Upper: Not Recommended / Lower: Lower Runnable SOURCE: https://www.americanwhitewater.org Users are advised to exercise caution along below-normal runs and avoid below-recommended level rivers as additional protrusions become visible or reside just below the surface. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------- ..WATER RESTRICTIONS... ----------------------- Keowee-Toxaway River Basin Status... ------------------------------------ As of March 31st, 2017, the Keowee-Toxaway River basin is currently in Stage 2 of the Low Inflow Protocol established by the Keowee-Toxaway Drought Management Advisory Group. Large water intake users, including municipal, industrial, and power plant users, are required to reduce withdrawals from Lake Keowee by a minimum of 5-10% from normal intake. This may impact the water supplies of communities that rely on Lake Keowee. Furthermore, voluntary water conservation is encouraged for all other users of the Keowee-Toxaway basin water supply. For additional information, please refer to the following website: https://www.duke-energy.com/lakes Catawba River Basin Status... ----------------------------- As of March 31st, 2017, the Catawba River basin is currently in Stage 1 of the Low Inflow Protocol established by the Catawba-Wateree Drought Management Advisory Group. Water usage is being closely monitored and users are being asked to voluntarily reduce irrigation to two days each week (Tuesday and Saturday). For additional information, please refer to the following website: https://www.duke-energy.com/lakes Little Tennessee River Basin Status... -------------------------------------- As of March 31st, 2017, Low Inflow Protocol is not in effect for any of the Nantahala and Tuckasegee River Basin reservoirs. For additional information, please refer to the following website: https://www.duke-energy.com/lakes Savannah Basin Status... ------------------------ Since September 19th, 2016, Lake Hartwell, Richard B. Russell Lake, and Lake Thurmond have been in in Level 2 of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Drought Management Plan. As reservoir levels decrease, impacts are possible for local municipalities that rely on these lakes for water supply. The reductions in discharge from Thurmond Dam as a result of the Level 2 status is reducing generation of hydroelectric power for the Southeastern Power Administration. For additional information, please refer to the following website: https://balancingthebasin.armylive.dodlive.mil/ --------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------- KNOWN WATER RESTRICTIONS ----------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------- STATE CITY, COUNTY, or PROVIDER STAGE TYPE Georgia | Elbert County | 1 | Voluntary Georgia | Franklin County | 1 | Voluntary Georgia | Habersham County | 2 | Mandatory Georgia | Hart County | 1 | Voluntary Georgia | Rabun County | None | No Restrictions Georgia | Stephens County | 1 | Voluntary North Carolina | Alexander | 1 | Voluntary North Carolina | Banner Elk | 1 | Voluntary North Carolina | Beech Mountain | 1 | Voluntary North Carolina | Belmont | 1 | Voluntary North Carolina | Bryson City | 1 | Voluntary North Carolina | Burke County | 1 | Voluntary North Carolina | Burnsville | 1 | Voluntary North Carolina | Caldwell County | 1 | Voluntary North Carolina | Canton | 1 | Voluntary North Carolina | Catawba County | 1 | Voluntary North Carolina | Charlotte | 1 | Voluntary North Carolina | Cherryville | 1 | Voluntary North Carolina | Concord | 1 | Voluntary North Carolina | Gastonia | 1 | Voluntary North Carolina | Harrisburg | 1 | Voluntary North Carolina | Hendersonville | 1 | Voluntary North Carolina | Hickory | 1 | Voluntary North Carolina | Junaluska Sanitary Dist. | 1 | Voluntary North Carolina | Kannapolis | 1 | Voluntary North Carolina | Lincoln County | 1 | Voluntary North Carolina | Old Fort | NA | Voluntary North Carolina | McAdenville | 1 | Voluntary North Carolina | Montreat | 1 | Voluntary North Carolina | Mooresville | 1 | Voluntary North Carolina | Sapphire | NA | Mandatory North Carolina | Sugar Mountain | NA | Mandatory North Carolina | Tryon | 1 | Voluntary North Carolina | Union County | 2 | Mandatory North Carolina | Western Carolina Univ. | 1 | Voluntary South Carolina | City of Union | NA | Voluntary South Carolina | York County | 1 | Voluntary South Carolina | Greenville Water | NA | Voluntary --------------------------------------------------------------------- ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: North Carolina: For detailed water management plans and required calls-to-action for your community, please visit: https://www.ncwater.org/Drought_Monitoring/reporting/ displaystate.php?sby=facility Charlotte: Irrigation only on Tuesday and Saturday, 6pm-6am, only 1-inch of water per week; No residential car washing; No pool filling, no fountains; https://charlottenc.gov/Water/Pages/ DroughtCentral.aspx Concord, Harrisburg, Kannapolis: https://www.concordnc.gov/Resident/Community- News/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/882 Greenville Water: Outdoor watering only twice-per-week between 7pm and 8am for no more than 10 minutes https://www.greenvillewater.com/ dry-weather-leads-to-voluntary-water-restrictions/ York County: Outdoor watering limited to only two days per week; Reduce outdoor washing Hendersonville: Customers to reduce water usage by 10% Calls to Action... ------------------ The public in encouraged to contact their local municipalities to confirm the lack of water restrictions in their specific area. Please be mindful of drought conditions in your area even if your community is not officially under water restrictions. Limit outdoor watering and conserve water use indoors whenever possible. -------------------- ..WILDFIRE DANGER... -------------------- Advisories... ------------- No advisories are in effect as of late March 2017. Current Wildfires... -------------------- There are only very small (<10 acres) wildfires ongoing as of March 30, 2017. Prescribed burns will be normal through mid-spring. For more information, please visit: https://www.state.sc.us/forest/scfires.htm https://www.state.sc.us/forest/scnotifs.htm https://www.fs.usda.gov/nfsnc https://www.ncforestservice.gov/fire_control/sit_report.htm --------------------------------------------------------------------- ------- NOTABLE (LARGE-INCIDENT) FIRES DURING CURRENT DROUGHT ------- --------------------------------------------------------------------- STATE | LOCATION / INCIDENT | SIZE | CONTAINMENT (ac) (%) | DATE NC | May Branch, Nantahala Lake / 5080 | 175 | 100 | 11/12/16 NC | Dobson Rdge, Qualla Boundary / 5097 | 756 | 100 | 11/25/16 NC | Rocky Knob, 8 W Franklin / 5077 | 1,130 | 100 | 11/27/16 NC | Cliffside, 3 NW Highlands / 5081 | 110 | 100 | 11/27/16 NC | Moses Ck, 4 NW Cullowhee / 5083 | 103 | 100 | 11/27/16 NC | Avey Branch, Santeetlah Lake / 5089 | 1,200 | 100 | 11/27/16 NC | Ferebee, 1 N Nantahala / 5093 | 3,175 | 100 | 11/27/16 NC | Muskrat Vly, 7.5 SW Franklin / 5099 | 104 | 100 | 11/27/16 NC | Cathey Gp, 3 NE Wolf Ck Lake / 5105 | 123 | 100 | 11/27/16 NC | Maple Sprngs, Santeetlah Lk / 5090 | 7,788 | 100 | 12/02/16 NC | Boteler, 6 E Hayesville / 5075 | 9,036 | 100 | 12/03/16 NC | Dicks Creek, 2 NW Sylva / 5082 | 729 | 100 | 12/03/16 NC | Tellico, 3 S Almond / 5084 | 13.874 | 100 | 12/03/16 NC | Clear Creek, 3 NW Plsnt Grdns/ 5106 | 3,163 | 100 | 12/03/16 NC | Camp Branch, 7 W Franklin / 5110 | 3,422 | 100 | 12/03/16 NC | Old Roughy, Santeetlah Lk / 5098 | 657 | 100 | 12/05/16 SC | Pinnacle Mtn, 10.5 N Pickens / 5108 | 10,623 | 100 | 12/05/16 NC | Sugar Cove, 10 NW Marion / NA | 577 | 100 | 02/07/17 For more information about any fires with an incident number, please visit: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/<Incident Number> (e.g., https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/5108/) --------------------------------------------------------------------- Calls to Action... ------------------ South Carolina state law requires residents outside of town or city limits to notify the SC Forestry Commission prior to burning outdoors! Please visit the following website to call a toll-free number in your county prior to burning yard debris: https://www.state.sc.us/forest/fyard.htm For more information about the North Carolina Open Burning Rule, please visit: https://deq.nc.gov/about/divisions/air-quality/ air-quality-enforcement/open-burning Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook... ---------------------------------------------- The Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook from the NIFC calls for NEAR NORMAL fire potential through June 2017. --------------------------------------------------------------------- --------- FIRE DANGER and KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) --------- --------------------------------------------------------------------- CURRENT KBDI** KBDI DEPARTURE REGION* FIRE (03/30) FROM NORMAL DANGER (03/27) (03/30) NC Piedmont Moderate | <100-200 | + 0-+200 Slightly Abv Nrml NC Foothills Moderate | <100-200 | + 0-+100 Slightly Abv Nrml NC Nrn Mnts Moderate | <100 | + 0-+ 50 Normal NC Cntl Mnts Moderate | <100 | + 0-+ 75 Normal NC Srn Mnts Moderate | <100 | + 0-+ 75 Normal SC Mnts/ Moderate | <100-200 | + 0-+200 Slightly Abv Nrml Foothills SC Piedmont Low-Moderate | 100-200 | + 50-+200 Slightly Abv Nrml GA NE Mnts/ Low | <100-150 | + 50-+200 Slightly Abv Nrml Foothills GA Piedmont Low-Moderate | <100-200 | + 50-+150 Slightly Abv Nrml DEFINITIONS... *A list of all counties and their assigned geographical region appears near the end of the Drought Information Statement. **KBDI and measures the impact of evapotranspiration and precipitation on moisture deficiencies in the upper soil layer and the layer of decomposing organic materials just above the soil. It is derived solely from normal annual precipitation, daily precipitation amount, and daily maximum air temperature. A value of zero represents no moisture deficiency while a value of 800 is the maximum deficiency measured. This means for a value of 800, it will take 8.00 inches of rainfall in 24-hours to reduce the index to zero or saturation. KBDI = 0-200: Soil moisture and large class fuel moistures are high and do not contribute much to fire intensity. Typical of spring dormant season following winter precipitation. KBDI =200-400: Typical of late spring, early growing season. Lower litter and duff layers are drying and beginning to contribute to fire intensity. KBDI =400-600: Typical of late summer, early fall. Lower litter and duff layers actively contribute to fire intensity and will burn actively. KBDI =600-800: Often associated with more severe drought with increased wildfire occurrence. Intense, deep burning fires with significant downwind spotting can be expected. Live fuels can also be expected to burn actively at these levels. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ===================================================================== PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE SUMMARY... ===================================================================== ------------------------------------------- ..OBSERVED WEATHER OVER THE PAST 90 DAYS... ------------------------------------------- February -------- --------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------- AVERAGE TEMPERATURES for FEBRUARY 2017 --------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------- DEPART AVG NORMAL from WARM PREV/CURR RECORDS SITE TEMP TEMP NORMAL RANK RECORD BEGAN (deg) (deg) (deg) AVL Airport | 47.6 | 40.4 | +7.2 | 1st | 45.6 (1990) | 1946 CLT Airport | 53.4 | 43.9 | +9.5 | 1st | 52.2 (1990) | 1939 GSP Airport | 53.9 | 45.8 | +8.1 | 1st | 50.6 (1990) | 1962 --------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------- ESTIMATED RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 60 DAYS -------------- ---------- (January 30th, 2017 through March 30th, 2017) ----------- --------------------------------------------------------------------- 60-DAY DEPARTURE 60-DAY OBSERVED 60-DAY FROM PERCENT OF REGION PRECIP NORMAL NORMAL* NORMAL (in) (in) (in) (%) NC Piedmont 2.00- 6.00 | 7.00- 9.00 | -2.00 to + 1.50 | 35-110 NC Foothills 3.00- 7.00 | 8.00-10.00 | -1.50 to + 2.00 | 75-130 NC Nrn Mnts 4.00- 7.00 | 7.00-10.00 | -0.50 to + 2.00 | 90-150 NC Cntl Mnts 3.50- 9.00 | 6.50-15.00 | -1.50 to + 1.50 | 75-135 NC Srn Mnts 4.50- 9.00 | 7.50-15.00 | -3.00 to + 3.00 | 65-150 SC Mnts/ 3.00- 9.00 | 9.00-14.00 | -2.00 to + 1.50 | 50-125 Foothills SC Piedmont 2.00- 4.00 | 7.00- 9.00 | -2.00 to - 1.00 | 40- 90 GA NE Mnts/ 3.50- 7.00 |10.00-15.00 | -3.00 to + 1.50 | 60-110 Foothills GA Piedmont 2.00- 5.00 | 8.50-10.00 | -3.00 to - 1.00 | 40- 80 --------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------- RECORDS BROKEN SINCE DECEMBER 23, 2016 --------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------- NEW PREVIOUS DATE SITE TYPE RECORD RECORD (YEAR) 12/31 | Anderson | Min Annual Precip | 25.07" | 31.80" (2007) 12/31 | Carnesville | Min Annual Precip | 29.05" | 31.47" (1954) 12/31 | Clarkesville | Min Annual Precip | 37.35" | 43.68" (2006) 12/31 | Elberton | Min Annual Precip | 27.61" | 31.51" (1986) 12/31 | Franklin | Min Annual Precip | 36.83" | 38.35" (1986) 12/31 | Hartwell | Min Annual Precip | 29.61" | 31.09" (1981) 12/31 | Laurens | Min Annual Precip | 29.12" | 30.74" (1925) 12/31 | Rock Hill | Min Annual Precip | 25.56" | 26.76" (2007) 12/31 | Walhalla | Min Annual Precip | 34.60" | 38.49" (2007) 01/06 | CLT Airport | Snowfall | 0.1" | t (1952) 01/13 | CLT Airport | Max Temp | 78 | 75 (2013) 01/16 | AVL Airport | High Min Temp | 49 | 47 (1947) 01/18 | CLT Airport | Max Temp | 75 | 71 (1937) 01/18 | GSP Airport | Max Temp | 78 | 71 (1928) 01/25 | GSP Airport | Max Temp | 74 T | 74 (1909) 02/11 | CLT Airport | Max Temp | 77 | 75 (1965) 02/12 | AVL Airport | Max Temp | 78 | 68 (1951) 02/12 | CLT Airport | Max Temp | 80 | 73 (1999) 02/12 | CLT Airport | High Min Temp | 59 | 53 (1966) 02/12 | GSP Airport | Max Temp | 81 Ex | 75 (1987) 02/12 | GSP Airport | High Min Temp | 60 Ex | 54 (1966) 02/23 | GSP Airport | Max Temp | 76 T | 76 (2012) 02/28 | Rock Hill | Min Feb. Precip | 0.78" | 1.06" (2015) 02/28 | Taylorsville | Min Feb. Precip | 1.07" | 1.10" (2000) 03/17 | CLT Airport | Min Temp | 22 | 23 (1900) DEFINITIONS: Ex= Extreme for Month T = Tied t = Trace --------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------- MEASURED PRECIPITATION for FEBRUARY 2017 -------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------- FEB DEPT. % 2017 FROM OF DRIEST WET CITY COUNTY PRECIP NRML NRML RANK RANK (in) (in) (%) GEORGIA Carnesville | Franklin | 2.39 | -2.48 | 49% | 16th | >25th Clarkesville | Habersham | 1.46 | -4.24 | 26% | 2nd | 23rd Clayton | Rabun | 1.59 | -4.25 | 27% | 6th | >25th Elberton | Elbert | 1.48 | -2.98 | 33% | 6th | >25th Hartwell | Hart | 2.57 | -2.24 | 53% | 23rd | >25th Toccoa | Stephens | 1.62 | -3.56 | 31% | 8th | >25th NORTH CAROLINA AVL Airport | Buncombe | 0.70 | -3.06 | 19% | 4th | >25th Beech Mtn | Avery | 1.43 | -2.37 | 38% | 2nd | 25th Cherokee | Swain | 2.19 | -2.50 | 47% | 9th | >25th CLT Airport | Mecklenburg | 1.19 | -2.13 | 36% | 8th | >25th Concord | Cabarrus | 1.02 | -2.37 | 30% | 5th | >25th Franklin | Macon | 1.07 | -3.67 | 23% | 3rd | >25th Hickory | Catawba | 1.12 | -2.60 | 30% | 4th | >25th Lenoir | Caldwell | 0.93 | -2.74 | 25% | 8th | >25th Lincolnton | Lincoln | 0.50 | -3.15 | 14% | 2nd | >25th Marion | McDowell | 0.72 | -3.44 | 17% | 6th | >25th Marshall | Madison | 1.13 | -2.07 | 35% | 9th | >25th Mocksville | Davie | 0.61 | -2.97 | 17% | 4th | >25th Monroe | Union | 1.31 | -2.51 | 34% | 12th | >25th Salisbury | Rowan | 0.47 | -3.05 | 13% | 2nd | >25th Shelby | Cleveland | 0.80 | -2.88 | 22% | 2nd | >25th Taylorsville | Alexander | 1.07 | -3.20 | 25% | 1st | >25th Tryon | Polk | 0.96 | -3.90 | 20% | 3rd | >25th Waynesville | Haywood | 1.19 | -3.29 | 27% | 7th | >25th SOUTH CAROLINA Anderson | Anderson | 2.29 | -1.61 | 59% | 15th | >25th Chesnee | Spartanburg | 1.33 | -2.63 | 34% | 9th | >25th Chester | Chester | 1.57 | -2.21 | 42% | 11th | >25th GRD Airport | Greenwood | 1.60 | -2.53 | 39% | 2nd | 16th GSP Airport | Spartanburg | 1.20 | -2.77 | 30% | 6th | >25th Laurens | Laurens | 1.67 | -2.53 | 40% | 13th | >25th Rock Hill | York | 0.78 | -2.92 | 21% | 1st | 19th Union | Union | 1.36 | -2.78 | 33% | 6th | >25th Walhalla | Oconee | 1.78 | -3.12 | 36% | 9th | >25th --------------------------------------------------------------------- ===================================================================== PRECIPITATION and TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK*... ===================================================================== * The weather, temperature, and precipitation outlook is based on the best available guidance and weather pattern analysis at the issuance time of this statement. For the LATEST FORECAST for the region, please visit: https://weather.gov/gsp and enter your zip code or click on the Watch, Warning, and Advisories (WWA) map. For the LATEST DISCUSSION for the region, please visit: https://weather.gov/gsp and click on the Forecaster's Discussion link below the WWA map --------------------------------------------------------------------- ---- 1-10 DAY FUTURE PRECIPITATION FORECAST and FLOOD POTENTIAL ----- --------------------------------------------------------------------- REGION 10-DAY % OF MAINSTEM SMALL STREAM PRECIP NORMAL FLOOD PTNTL FLOOD PTNTL (in) NC Piedmont 1.50-3.00 | 140-175 | Slight | Moderate NC Foothills 2.00-5.00 | 150-225 | Near Zero | Moderate NC Nrn Mnts 1.50-2.50 | 110-140 | NA | Near Zero NC Cntl Mnts 1.50-3.00 | 125-150 | Slight | Slight NC Srn Mnts 2.00-5.00 | 150-200 | Moderate | Moderate SC Mnts 2.00-5.00 | 110-200 | NA | Slight SC Foothills 2.00-4.00 | 125-200 | Slight | Moderate SC Piedmont 1.50-3.00 | 140-175 | Zero | Near Zero GA NE Mnts/ 2.00-5.00 | 110-200 | Near Zero | Slight Foothills GA Piedmont 2.00-4.00 | 125-200 | Zero | Near Zero --------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------- 8-90 DAY PRECIPITATION and TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS ---------- --------------------------------------------------------------------- For the latest 8-14 Day Outlook, please visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ interactive/index.php For the latest 15-30 Day Outlook and Discussion, please visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ For the latest 30-90 Day Outlooks, please visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/ REGION 8-14 DAY 15-30 DAY 30-120 DAY PRECIPITATION PRECIPITATION PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK OUTLOOK OUTLOOK NC Piedmont Slight Blw Nrml | Slight Blw Nrml | Equal Chances NC Foothills Slight Blw Nrml | Slight Blw Nrml | Equal Chances NC Nrn Mnts Slight Blw Nrml | Slight Blw Nrml | Equal Chances NC Cntl Mnts Slight Blw Nrml | Slight Blw Nrml | Equal Chances NC Srn Mnts Slight Blw Nrml | Slight Blw Nrml | Equal Chances SC Mnts Slight Blw Nrml | Below Normal | Equal Chances SC Foothills Slight Blw Nrml | Below Normal | Equal Chances SC Piedmont Slight Blw Nrml | Below Normal | Equal Chances GA NE Mnts/ Slight Blw Nrml | Below Normal | Equal Chances Foothills GA Piedmont Slight Blw Nrml | Below Normal | Equal Chances REGION 8-14 DAY 15-30 DAY 30-120 DAY TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK OUTLOOK OUTLOOK NC Piedmont Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml | Above Normal NC Foothills Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml | Above Normal NC Nrn Mnts Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml | Above Normal NC Cntl Mnts Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml | Above Normal NC Srn Mnts Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml | Above Normal SC Mnts Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml | Above Normal SC Foothills Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml | Above Normal SC Piedmont Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml | Above Normal GA NE Mnts/ Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml | Above Normal Foothills GA Piedmont Slight Abv Nrml | Slight Abv Nrml | Above Normal --------------------------------------------------------------------- Note that Equal-Chances means there are equal chances for above-normal...normal...and below-normal precipitation during the given period. In other words, there is no clear signal for precipitation during the given period. ---------------------------------------- ..El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)... ---------------------------------------- The eastern Pacific is currently ENSO-Neutral, which means that the sea surface temperatures near the equator in the central and east-central Pacific Ocean are only slightly below average. ENSO- neutral conditions are expected to persist through June of 2017. As a result, there exists no clear hemispheric signal that would provide confidence in forecasting a departure from normal precipitation heading through the spring and early summer months. Therefore, medium-range (i.e., 8-14 day) weather patterns and individual weather systems will have to be closely monitored, as there are many other atmospheric signals that cannot be predicted months in advance that will also have an influence on our weather. ===================================================================== HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY and OUTLOOK... ===================================================================== -------------------- ..IMPORTANT NOTES... -------------------- It is very important to note that flash flooding and flooding of smaller tributaries is still very possible during periods of drought. Several important and damaging flash floods have were observed this past summer despite the drought. Residents are strongly encouraged to heed related flood advisories and warnings, even during significant drought. The winter and early spring months are a critical time for the water system as widespread winter precipitation normally restores streamflows and reservoir levels following the spotty, convective nature of precipitation during the summer and the drier weeks of early fall. This recharge of the water system is critical for adequate water supply heading into the late spring and summer of 2017. When the winter begins in a significant drought, it takes a greater amount of precipitation to adequately complete this recharge. ---------------------------- ..SOIL and CROP MOISTURE*... ---------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- CPC SOIL/CROP MOISTURE ESTIMATES (1600-mm or 5.25ft Depth) ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------- 03/30 03/30 03/25 SOIL SOIL CHANGE SHORT-TERM MOISTURE MOISTURE FROM CROP MOISTURE ANOMALY %ile DEC 31 INDEX REGION (mm) (%) (mm) NC Piedmont - 80 to -100 | 3-10 | -40 to + 0 | -1 - +1, Near Nrml NC Foothills -100 to -120 | 2- 5 | -20 to +30 | -1 - +1, Near Nrml NC Nrn Mnts - 80 to -100 | 5-10 | -10 to +10 | -1 - +1, Near Nrml NC Cntl Mnts - 60 to -100 | 5-15 | + 0 to +30 | -1 - +1, Near Nrml NC Srn Mnts - 80 to -120 | 1-10 | +10 to +30 | -1 - +1, Near Nrml SC Mnts/ -120 to -130 | <1 | +20 to +40 | -1 - +1, Near Nrml Foothills SC Piedmont - 80 to -120 | 3-10 | -20 to +20 | -1 - +1, Near Nrml GA NE Mnts/ -100 to -120 | 1- 5 | +20 to +30 | -1 - +1, Near Nrml Foothills GA Piedmont -110 to -130 | 1- 5 | + 0 to +30 | -1 - +1, Near Nrml DEFINITIONS: *EVAPOTRANSPIRATION = The loss of moisture from the soil to the atmosphere plus the loss of moisture from the soil to vegetation. *INTERPRETATION = Note that above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation exacerbate the loss of soil moisture through evapotranspiration, while below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation mitigates soil-moisture deficits. However, heading into fall and winter, cooler temperatures and less-active or dormant vegetation reduce demands on the water system and while still important, the effects of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation are lessened. **CROP MOISTURE = Depicts short-term (< 1 month) dryness or wetness INDEX impacting agriculture. Negative values indicate dryness, while positive values indicate wetness. The index is not a depicter of medium-range (i.e., 1-6 months) to long-range (i.e., >6 months) drought. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------- ..GROUNDWATER*... ----------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------ GROUNDWATER WELL MEASUREMENTS -------------------- ---------------- Depth Below Ground Surface in Feet ----------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------- CHANGE***RECORD DEPTH* APR** SINCE LOWEST and 03/30 MEDIAN 02/05# LEVEL DATE COUNTY LOCATION (ft) (ft) (ft) (ft) Burke Glen Alpine 11.80 | 10.64 | +0.05 | 13.84, 09/04/11 Caldwell Granite Falls 26.25 | 17.07 | +0.62 | 26.44, 03/23/17 Catawba Oxford Resrch St 40.81 | 38.62 | +0.39 | 42.09, 01/14/13 Gaston Pasour Mtn 42.14 | 34.17 | -0.13 | 44.66, 01/31/13 McDowell Pleasant Gardens 31.49 | 29.29 | +1.04 | 31.89, 11/29/10 Union (NC) Mineral Springs 37.24 | 38.27 | -0.41 | 42.70, 01/10/13 York York Co Airport 25.01 | 24.01 | -0.13 | 29.69, 12/13/12 CHANGE*** RECORD DEPTH* SINCE %ile LOWEST and 03/30 02/05# **** LEVEL DATE COUNTY LOCATION (ft) (ft) (03/30) (ft) Chester Leeds Road 85.97 | +0.53 | >90th | 94.52, 01/12/14 Davie Mocksville 18.13 | +0.49 | 10-25 | 23.15, 08/30/02 Haywood near Cruso 6.70 | +0.10 | <1st | 6.96, 09/12/02 Iredell Langtree 27.16 | +3.55 | <1st | 32.90, 06/21/16 Oconee Oconee Statn Rd 30.34 | +0.05 | 10-25 | 32.08, 12/31/08 Rowan Barber 7.63 | +0.18 | 10-25 | 11.15, 09/14/02 Spartanburg Croft State Park 45.47 | +0.42 | 25-50 | 51.69, 03/17/13 Transylvania Blantyre 35.18 | +0.36 | 10-25 | 42.19, 12/12/08 Transylvania Pisgah Forest 16.47 | +0.20 | <1st | 17.86, 08/25/08 White Unicoi State Pk 5.09 | -0.09 | <10th | 5.91, 07/28/16 DEFINITIONS: * DEPTH = Note that groundwater is measured as depth below the surface, unlike streamflow and reservoir data which is the reverse or height above the surface. Therefore, the higher the depth value, the less the groundwater supply because the groundwater level is further from the surface. **MEDIAN = Current depth values that are larger than the monthly median can be loosely correlated to drier-than-normal conditions while current depth values that are smaller than the monthly median can be loosely correlated to wetter-than-normal conditions. ***CHANGE = A POSITIVE CHANGE means the groundwater depth has increased or is further from the surface. Therefore, a NEGATIVE CHANGE means the groundwater depth has decreased or is closer to the surface. In periods of drought, negative changes are ideal. However, positive changes are NORMAL during the late summer and early fall, as rainfall is typically isolated to scattered and less significant, causing losses to surface and subsurface water sources due to increased evapotranspiration, evaporation, and increased consumption, while negative changes are NORMAL during the late fall and winter, as widespread significant precipitation recharges surface and subsurface water sources and environmental demands are lower. Note, however, that for many groundwater sites, the depth of the wells are very deep and there is a lag between significant rainfall and deep infiltration into subsurface water supplies. If the rainfall is not significant or occurring over a sustained period of time, the water may never reach the groundwater wells. Additionally, if the rainfall is significant but occurring quickly and only once during a period of several weeks, a shallower groundwater well may spike and then return to near pre-rainfall levels. ****PERCENTILE = The percentile (%ile) values can be interpreted as follows: Less than 10th percentile - Well-Below Normal 10th-25th percentile - Below Normal 25th-50th percentile - Slightly Below Normal/Near Normal 50th-75th percentile - Slightly Above Normal/Near Normal 75th-90th percentile - Above Normal Greater than 90th percentile - Well-Above Normal The percentile values are computed monthly. Therefore, percentiles referenced in the chart above are for the month of February. Groundwater well statistics change throughout the water year such that the median monthly depth typically reaches a minimum in autumn and a peak in late spring. This can result in a dramatic change in the percentile of an observed depth from one month to the next, even if the observed depth does not change significantly. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------- ..STREAMFLOW*... ---------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------- ------- 28-DAY AVERAGE USGS STREAMFLOW PERCENTILES BY REGION -------- --------------------------------------------------------------------- % OF %ILE CLASSIFICATION REGION NORMAL (03/29) (03/29) (03/29) NC Piedmont 16- 55 | 1-23 | Well-Below Normal NC Foothills 22- 41 | 1-12 | Well-Below Normal NC Nrn Mnts 37- 42 | 3 | Well-Below Normal NC Cntl Mnts 27- 64 | 1-21 | Well-Below Normal NC Srn Mnts 30- 53 | 1- 6 | Near-Record Lows SC Mnts/ 27- 73 | 1-25 | Below Normal Foothills SC Piedmont 13- 55 | 1-12 | Well-Below Normal GA NE Mnts/ 23- 38 | 1-14 | Well-Below Normal Foothills GA Piedmont 10- 49 | 1-33 | Well-Below Normal --------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- 28-DAY AVERAGE USGS STREAMFLOW PERCENTILES BY RIVER SYSTEM ---- --------------------------------------------------------------------- % OF %ILE CLASSIFICATION RIVER BASIN NORMAL (03/29) (03/29) (03/29) Broad (GA) 10- 49 | 1-33 | Well-Below Normal Broad (NC/SC)/Pacolet 25- 54 | 1-25 | Below Normal Catawba (Upper) 25- 47 | 1- 5 | Near-Record Lows Catawba (Lower) 13- 55 | 1-23 | Blw Nrml (Uppr)/Nr Nrml (Lwr) Enoree/Tyger 28- 73 | 2-28 | Well-Below Normal French Broad 29- 42 | 1- 6 | Near-Record Lows Nantahala/Tuckasegee/ 35- 60 | 1- 9 | Well-Below Normal Little Tennessee Pigeon 27- 56 | 1- 8 | Well-Below Normal Rocky (NC) 29- 58 | 2-40 | Below Normal Reedy/Saluda 25- 44 | 1-12 | Well-Below Normal Tallulah/Chattooga 30- 38 | 1-14 | Well-Below Normal Toxaway/Keowee/ 15- 56 | 1-25 | Well-Below Normal Savannah Yadkin 32- 36 | 1- 3 | Near-Record Lows --------------------------------------------------------------------- DEFINITIONS... *RESERVOIR = Please note that streamflows along regulated rivers INFLUENCE (i.e., rivers with reservoirs) may be influenced positively and/or negatively by the control of releases from those reservoirs. --------------- ..RESERVOIRS... --------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------- POOL ELEVATIONS and DROUGHT STAGES ---------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------- AVG* AVG TARGET 03/30 03/30 03/30 ELEV ELEV ELEV ELEV- MIN DGT RESERVOIR NWS ID 03/30 02/06 03/30 TARGET ELEV* STGE (ft) (ft) (ft) (ft) (ft) BROAD SYSTEM Summit (None) 98.2 | 97.3 | 97.5 | +0.70 | 85.0 | NA Gaston Shoals (BLAS1) 99.35 | 98.95 | NA | NA | 99.0 | NA Ninety-Nine Isl (NNIS1) 99.52 | 99.00 | NA | NA | 99.0 | NA CATAWBA SYSTEM (As of 3/1, Total Reservoir Storage 113% of Target) James (BRWN7) 96.52 | 95.88 | 95.9 | +0.62 | 90.0 | 1 Rhodhiss (RHON7) 97.63 | 97.04 | 97.0 | +0.63 | 93.0 | 1 Hickory (OXFN7) 97.32 | 97.40 | 97.0 | +0.32 | 94.0 | 1 Lookout Shoals (LKSN7) 97.25 | 96.33 | 97.0 | +0.25 | 93.0 | 1 Norman (CWAN7) 96.15 | 96.07 | 96.6 | -0.45 | 91.6 | 1 Mountain Island (MOUN7) 97.20 | 97.46 | 96.0 | +1.20 | 94.3 | 1 Wylie (FOMS1) 97.90 | 98.32 | 97.0 | +0.90 | 93.0 | 1 Fishing Creek (FCDS1) 98.56 | 97.70 | 98.0 | +0.56 | 95.0 | 1 Great Falls (GTFS1) 97.50 | 97.85 | 97.5 | +0.00 | 94.0 | 1 Cedar Creek (CDCS1) 97.50 | 97.90 | 97.5 | +0.00 | 95.0 | 1 NANTAHALA/LITTLE TENNESSEE/TUCKASEGEE SYSTEM Tanasee Creek (EFKN7) 95.00 | 86.82 | 87.9 | +7.10 | 85.8 | ND Bear Creek** (BCDN7) 75.00 | 94.40 | 94.9 |-19.90 | 91.9 | ND Cedar Cliff (ICCN7) 97.45 | 98.38 | 98.0 | -0.55 | 96.0 | 0 Glenville (THPN7) 94.07 | 91.49 | 92.9 | +1.17 | 89.8 | ND Wolf Creek (WCDN7) 94.84 | 86.50 | 87.9 | +6.94 | 85.8 | ND Nantahala (NANN7) 94.99 | 85.36 | 92.8 | +2.19 | 84.7 | ND Queens Creek (QCDN7) 89.92 | 89.50 | 88.7 | +1.22 | 85.8 | ND Fontana (FONN7) 1666.73 |1653.40 |1666.0 | +0.73 |1663.0 | NA SAVANNAH SYSTEM (As of 3/1, Total Reservoir Storage 61% of Target) Jocassee (JCSS1) 87.98 | 89.33 | NA | NA | 77.0 | 2 Keowee (KEOS1) 95.65 | 97.36 | NA | NA | 94.6 | 2 Hartwell (HRTG1) 650.02 | 650.09 |659.89 | -9.87 | 625.0 | 2 Russell (RBDS1) 473.25 | 474.70 |475.0 | -1.75 | 470.0 | 2 PROJECTIONS... LAKE HARTWELL... assuming net inflows increase to 55% of normal then hold steady over the next 10 weeks, the pool elevation is projected to increase slightly through April but make little progress towards reducing the target deficit. FONTANA LAKE... is doing quite well at this time as the pool elevaton is rising at a rate equal to the rise in target pool which is allowing recharge to occur on schedule. **BEAR CREEK LAKE... Duke Energy is performing maintenance on the dam. Work is expected to be completed by April 10, 2017 at which point the reservoir will be refilled. The upstream Wolf Creek and Tanasee Creek lakes are being kept well above their target pools in order to provide the volume necessary to refill Bear Creek once repairs are completed. DEFINITIONS... *AVG ELEV = Reporting the daily average elevation factors in the fluctuations in pool elevation due to scheduled discharges and/or power generation. MINIMUM = The minimal elevation is the lowest elevation that the ELEVATION pool can be while meeting local community and river system needs. Drought release reduction plans may begin above the minimal elevation. For Lake Hartwell and Richard B. Russell Lake, the minimal elevation marks the bottom of conservation storage or the top of the inactive pool. Drought release reduction plans begin at or above the minimal elevation, at 656.0 feet at Lake Hartwell and at 470.0 feet for Richard B. Russell Lake. NA = Not Available (Typically because one does not exist) ND = No Drought --------------------------------------------------------------------- ===================================================================== ..DROUGHT OUTLOOK... ===================================================================== --------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------- DROUGHT FORECAST -------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------- Region Current Drought 30-Day Drought Forecast (as of March 30) (conditions on April 30) NC Piedmont | D0-D2 (Moderate) | Likely 1 Cat Improvement NC Foothills | D1-D2 (Severe) | Likely 1 Cat Improvement NC Nrn Mnts | D0-D1 (Moderate) | Likely 1 Cat Improvement NC Cntl Mnts | D1 (Moderate) | Likely 1 Cat Improvement NC Srn Mnts | D1-D2 (Severe) | Likely 1 Cat Improvement SC Mnts/ | D2-D3 (Severe) | Possible 2 Cat Improvement Foothills SC Piedmont | D1-D2 (Severe) | Likely 1 Cat Improvement GA NE Mnts/ | D3 (Extreme) | Likely 1 Cat Improvement Foothills GA Piedmont | D2 (Severe) | Likely 1 Cat Improvement --------------------------------------------------------------------- ===================================================================== NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... ===================================================================== --------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------ PRODUCT SCHEDULE* -------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------- PRODUCT | NUMBER | ISSUED BY** Primary Drought Information Statement | #2017P2 | May 05 Intermediate Drought Information Statement | #2017I2 | Jun 09 Primary Drought Information Statement | #2017P3 | Jul 21 DEFINITIONS: Intermediate = Update to Synopsis, tabular data, and Outlook only Primary = Complete Update to all sections *Schedule = The Drought Information Statement is only issued when D2 or greater drought conditions exist in the NWS Greenville-Spartanburg service area (see County- to-Region Legend below for serviced counties). Scheduled statements will be cancelled if D2 or worse conditions are removed from the service area. **Issued By = Other activities or responsibilities may delay the issuance of the Drought Information Statement. If receiving the statement by the above date is critical to your needs, please contact the author listed below. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ================== ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... ================== The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) is a multi-agency effort involving the following organizations: - National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) - U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) - U.S. National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) - U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) - U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) - U.S. Forest Service (USFS) - U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) - State departments of agriculture - State forest services - State and regional climatologists - Private Reservoir Operators County-specific drought categories are derived from the NDMC's USDM. Agricultural information is derived from the USDA...the Climate Prediction Center (CPC)...the North Carolina Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services...and the National Integrated Drought Information System. Fire Danger classifications are courtesy of the USFS...the Georgia Forestry Commission...and the North Carolina Forest Service. The precipitation analysis is derived from quality-controlled gridded precipitation estimates produced at the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center and the Southeast River Forecast Center. The precipitation and temperature outlook is derived from guidance produced at the CPC. Groundwater levels and records are courtesy of the USGS. Reservoir information is courtesy of Duke Energy, Georgia Power, and the USACE. Additional impact information is gathered from various media reports as available. ============ RESOURCES... ============ NDMC's USDM... https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu USDM Classification Definitions... https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/AboutUs/ClassificationScheme.aspx North Carolina Drought Mitigation Advisory Council... https://www.ncwater.org/drought/ South Carolina Drought Response Committee... https://www.dnr.sc.gov/climate/sco/Drought/drought_current_info.php River Conditions and Forecasts via the NWS... https://www.weather.gov/ahps/ Streamflow Conditions via the USGS... https://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch Mid-Term and Long-Term Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks via the CPC... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ ========================== COUNTY TO REGION LEGEND... ========================== ------------ ..GEORGIA... ------------ COUNTY REGION Elbert GA Piedmont Franklin GA Piedmont Habersham GA NE Mountains/Foothills Hart GA Piedmont Rabun GA NE Mountains/Foothills Stephens GA NE Mountains/Foothills ------------------- ..NORTH CAROLINA... ------------------- COUNTY REGION (SUBREGION) Alexander NC Foothills (Northern) Avery NC Northern Mountains Buncombe NC Central Mountains Burke NC Foothills (Northern) Cabarrus NC Piedmont (Southern) Caldwell NC Foothills (Northern) Catawba NC Foothills (Northern) Cleveland NC Piedmont (Southern) Davie NC Piedmont (Northwest) Gaston NC Piedmont (Southern) Graham NC Central Mountains Haywood NC Central Mountains Henderson NC Southern Mountains Iredell NC Piedmont (Northwest) Jackson North NC Central Mountains Jackson South NC Southern Mountains Lincoln NC Piedmont (Southern) Macon NC Southern Mountains Madison NC Central Mountains McDowell NC Foothills (Northern) Mecklenburg NC Piedmont (Southern) Mitchell NC Northern Mountains Polk NC Foothills (Southern) Rowan NC Piedmont (Northwest) Rutherford NC Foothills (Southern) Swain NC Central Mountains Transylvania NC Southern Mountains Union NC Piedmont (Southern) Yancey NC Northern Mountains ------------------- ..SOUTH CAROLINA... ------------------- COUNTY REGION (SUBREGION) Abbeville SC Piedmont (Lower) Anderson SC Piedmont (Northern) Cherokee SC Piedmont (Northern) Chester SC Piedmont (Eastern) Greenville SC Mountains/Foothills Greenwood SC Piedmont (Lower) Laurens SC Piedmont (Lower) Oconee SC Mountains/Foothills Pickens SC Mountains/Foothills Spartanburg SC Mountains/Foothills Union SC Piedmont (Eastern) York SC Piedmont (Eastern) ======================== QUESTIONS or COMMENTS... ======================== This product has undergone several revisions and enhancements during the last drought period. Additional enhancements are planned for future drought statements. Your feedback and recommendations are encouraged in order to ensure this product meets user needs. Please direct feedback...recommendations... questions...and comments to: National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office - Greenville-Spartanburg 1549 GSP Drive Greer SC 29651 Phone 864-848-9970 joshua.palmer@noaa.gov $$ JMP
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