SPC Mesoscale Discussion 1896 on 14 October 2014

Severe Thunderstorms Likely Across the Ozarks and Lower Ohio Valley

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes, are likely to develop this afternoon from parts of the lower Ohio Valley into the southern Plains. An Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) outlook has been issued. Further north, widespread rain showers are expected across portions of the Great Lakes and Northeast U.S. Read More >

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1896 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0824 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN SC/NC INTO WRN VA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 548... VALID 150124Z - 150230Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 548 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND AND BRIEF TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. AS SUCH...TORNADO WATCH 548 WILL BE EXTENDED IN TIME ACROSS PARTS OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND WRN NC INTO WRN VA. DISCUSSION...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE 00Z GSO RAOB SHOWED LIMITED INSTABILITY /MLCAPE NEAR 500 J PER KG/ BUT A STILL FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH FOR LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION /0-1 KM SRH NEAR 250 M2 PER S2/. WHILE SBCINH HAS LIKELY INCREASED SOME SINCE THIS OBSERVATION...GUSTY /LOCALLY DAMAGING/ WIND GUSTS OR A BRIEF TORNADO ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STRONGER BOWING SEGMENTS AND/OR MESOVORTICIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STRONG WINDS WERE NOTED WITHIN THE LAST 30 MINUTES ACROSS MCDOWELL COUNTY IN WRN NC /PER WFO GSP LSR/...AS SUCH A LOCAL EXTENSION IN TIME HAS BEEN COORDINATED WITH WFO GSP AND RNK. ..LEITMAN.. 10/15/2014 ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX... LAT...LON 36398026 35338057 34998081 34618124 34398179 34458205 34918214 35788208 36518172 37218105 37428063 37228026 36748024 36398026