How common is it not to measure any snowfall by now?

December 2015 was one of the warmest Decembers on record for Kentucky. This resulted in the neither Louisville nor Lexington seeing more than a trace of snowfall. Since November 2015 was also snowless, much of Kentucky entered the new year with no measurable snowfall for the winter season. How common is that?

It's somewhat rare at Lexington, with only 8 of the 123 years on record having first measurable snows occurring after New Year's Day. The most recent time this occurred was during the 2011-12 season, when it finally snowed 0.1" on January 12, 2012. The total accumulation for the 2011-2012 winter season was 7.6" in Lexington - well below the normal 13.0" expected annually.

Lexington “Late Snowfall” Years
Winter Season	First Measureable Snow Date	First Snow Amount (Inches)	Last Measurable Snow Date	Last Snow Amount (Inches)	Length of Snow Season (Days)	Seasonal Snowfall Total (Inches)
1931-1932	01-30 (1932)	0.1	03-28 (1932)	0.1	57	2.1
1982-1983	01-15 (1983)	0.2	03-21 (1983)	0.2	64	8.0
2011-2012	01-12 (2012)	0.1	03-05 (2012)	5.0	52	7.6
1947-1948	01-12 (1948)	0.9	02-22 (1948)	0.2	40	30.2
1996-1997	01-09 (1997)	0.1	02-13 (1997)	0.7	34	4.0

It's a little more common for Louisville to have a first measurable snow after New Year's Day. This has happened 17 times previously in the 131 years on record. Like Lexington, the most recent occurrence wias in the 2011-12 season, when the commonwealth's largest city also received 0.1" of snow on January 12. That winter season ended with 7.0" of snow, below the normal 12.5" of snowfall expected annually for Lousiville.

Louisville “Late Snowfall’ Years
Winter Season	First Measureable Snow Date	First Snow Amount (Inches)	Last Measurable Snow Date	Last Snow Amount (Inches)	Length of Snow Season (Days)	Seasonal Snowfall Total (Inches)
1931-1932	03-05 (1932)	1.5	03-14 (1932)	0.1	8	1.6
1994-1995	01-20 (1995)	0.1	03-08 (1995)	1.0	46	4.0
1965-1966	01-18 (1966)	0.4	04-05 (1966)	0.4	76	20.1
1928-1929	01-13 (1929)	1.0	03-05 (1929)	1.0	50	8.2
1921-1922	01-13 (1922)	1.5	03-04 (1922)	0.7	49	2.4
2011-2012	01-12 (2012)	0.1	03-05 (2012)	2.8	52	7.0
1982-1983	01-11 (1983)	0.3	03-10 (1983)	0.1	57	5.2
1908-1909	01-11 (1909)	2.0	02-16 (1909)	2.0	35	13
2015-2016	01-10 (2016)	0.6 (7AM)	??	??	??	??

While it is more common for seasonal snowfalls to end up below average in years with a late first snow, that is not always true. Despite January first snows in the winter of 1947-1948, Lexington piled up 30.2" for the season, and Louisville topped out with 22.1" before the last flake fell. Five other "Late First Snow" years also finished with above normal snowfall in Lousiville.

With several opportunities for measurable snow over the next 10 days, it does not look like 2016 will break any records for the latest first snow. It remains to be seen, however, whether the late start to the snow year will result lead to a less-than-average year, or be just the beginning of a late, but potent winter weather season for the Commonwealth.

Stay Aware and #BeWeatherReady!