Severe Thunderstorms and Heavy Rainfall in the Northern Plains and Midwest; Fire Weather Threat in the West

Severe thunderstorms will continue to be possible over parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest through Saturday which could bring large hail, damaging winds, and possible tornadoes. Heavy to excessive rainfall may produce flooding over a part of the Midwest today. Elevated to critical fire weather are expected today into this weekend over parts of the central Rockies and Great Basin. Read More >

A La Niña Watch has been issued by the Climate Prediction Center. There is a 50-55% chance of La Niña conditions developing this fall and continuing through the winter.

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Below is a map of the typical effect La Niña has on the November-March temperatures in the United States. The yellow and orange colors indicate areas where temperatures often average warmer than normal during a La Niña winter:

La Nina temperature anomalies

Here is a map showing the typical effect La Niña has on November-March precipitation. The blue and green colors in the Ohio Valley indicate a tendency toward wetter than normal conditions:

La Nina precipitation anomalies

It is important to remember:

The influence of La Niña on the Ohio Valley is not very strong
Every La Niña is different, and not all La Niña winters behave the same way
The strength of the La Niña may make a difference in how it affects our weather both in terms of precipitation and temperature (so far, this La Niña is expected to be weak)
There are myriad factors that work together to result in the weather we experience -- La Niña is just one of them

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Severe Thunderstorms and Heavy Rainfall in the Northern Plains and Midwest; Fire Weather Threat in the West

La Nina Watch