Severe Thunderstorms and Heavy Rainfall in the Southern Plains; Heat Continues in the West

Strong to severe thunderstorms may bring areas of excessive rainfall and flooding over parts of the southern Plains today through Friday. Hot to dangerously hot temperatures are forecast across portions of the Pacific Northwest and southern Great Basin today. Gusty winds, dry, and hot conditions will bring critical fire weather to parts of central Washington state today. Read More >

Forecasting snow amounts across the lower Ohio Valley can be challenging for many reasons, particularly 2 to 3 days before the storm arrives. To help decision makers and the public better aware of the storm's potential, the National Weather Service in Louisville is providing a probabilistic snowfall forecast, highlighting the range of snowfall possibilities.

The goal of this experiment is to provide the public and our partners with a range of snowfall possibilities to better communicate forecast uncertainties during winter weather events.

The Probabilistic Snowfall experiment forecasts can be found directly here: www.weather.gov/lmk/winter

Experiment Details
Low End, Expected, and High End Potential Forecasts
Localized City Forecasts
Chance of Exceedance Thresholds

What is This Experiment?

The Probabilistic Snowfall Experiment will enable all users to make better decisions regarding snowfall amounts leading up to a winter weather event. A full set of forecast information will be available and users can understand the confidence of a particular storm has based on the snowfall ranges.

It's an improved way to forecast snow, using forecaster experience, a large amount of available forecast models and statistical analysis to provide a range of possibilities for a winter storm.

You can find the latest snowfall forecasts and probabilities easily off our homepage at www.weather.gov/lmk/winter

Low End, Expected, and High End Forecast

In addition to providing just the expected (official) snowfall forecast, this new experiment will provide a minimum (low end) and a maximum (high end) snowfall forecast for our area. The low-end and high-end forecast is based on both forecaster experience and an ensemble of forecast models.

Localized City Snowfall Forecasts

The snowfall range of possibilities and exceedance probabilities will be given also in a tabular format for specific locations across southern Indiana and central Kentucky. This section can be filtered by each county in our service area.

Chance of Exceeding Thresholds

Also you will be able to graphically see the chances of snowfall amounts exceeding various thresholds. You can easily toggle through the various images.

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