National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Monsoon and Heavy Rain This Weekend

The active monsoon is expected to continue into next week from the Four Corners region and Desert Southwest to the central Rockies. This rainfall may produce flash flooding and debris flows, especially near recent burn scar areas. Locally heavy rain is likely near much of the Gulf Coast this weekend due to a stalled front and weak tropical disturbance. Read More >

The annual exceedance probability (AEP) provides a way of comparing rainfall to the climate of a particular area. For example, a certain amount of rain may be less rare in Louisiana than Missouri. Estimating the annual chance of observed or forecast rainfall amounts may provide a way of determining the significance of that rainfall for a particular location.