Active Weather Pattern for the West into the Plains

A strong Pacific storm continues to track across the Great Basin. Heavy snow is expected across the higher elevations and heavy rain across lower terrain. Strong gusty winds will make for additional hazards for travelers. These winds will bring increasing fire weather concerns for the southern High Plains. Then we will closely watch for severe thunderstorms across the central Plains on Monday. Read More >

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blueball.gif (205 bytes) Diagnose the pre-storm environment and determine their effects on storm evolution. Key upon environmental sounding characteristics (CAPE/CIN, vertical wind shear, depth of dry air aloft, delta-theta-e) associated with linear - bowing convective systems.

Utilize WSR-88D Doppler radar data to investigate the overall storm reflectivity / Doppler velocity structures of linear convective systems. Trace the origins and evolution of the mesoscale Rear Inflow and determine what role the RIJ plays in new cell growth/vortex evolution.

blueball.gif (205 bytes) Continue to test the Mid-Altitude Radial Convergence (MARC) velocity signature along the leading edge of linear MCSs and further document its relationship with the initial onset of damaging winds.

Investigate the evolution of cyclonic (anti-cyclonic) meso vorticies which may initially form near the ends of linear convective line segments or near the leading edge of bowing convective structures. What role(s) do these vortices play in tornadogenesis and enhancing the transport of mid-level momentum to the surface.

blueball.gif (205 bytes) Study the role and effects of low-level thunderstorm outflow or quasi-stationary frontal boundaries which intersect linear convective segments. What roles do these boundaries play on vortex development and evolution.

Investigate isolated cell (often anchored to a low-level boundary) convective line mergers and document their effects on vortex evolution, convective line motion and subsequent attending severe (non-severe) weather.

blueball.gif (205 bytes) Document the role and effects of a widespread shallow cool-stable layer on linear convective lines. What role does the depth of the cool-stable layer have on preventing strong convective-scale downdrafts from reaching the surface. Identify methods of determining the depth of such cool-stable layers to aid forecasters in the warning process. Develop specific methods operational meteorologist can use to forecast and warn for storms that produce damaging winds / non-supercell tornadoes.