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Snow and Ice Continue in the Northeast; Rain and Mountain Snow in the West

Significant winter impacts shift into the Northeast on Sunday. Heavy snow up to 2 feet will be possible across interior Northeastern areas. Southern New England may see ice accumulations up to a quarter of an inch. Strong gusty winds and bitter cold will follow the cold front passage. In the west, heavy mountain snow will impact the California, Inter-Mountain West, and Rocky mountains. Read More >

 

Drought Briefing Page
Updated: 10/18/2018

 


 

Summary:
Near normal rainfall was observed across the bi-state area over the past week, with amounts generally ranging from a quarter to three-quarters of an inch. The near normal rainfall this past week combined with very wet conditions earlier this month has led to continued improvements to the drought. Most significant improvements compared to last week include higher stock water supplies, wetter soil moisture percentiles, and better pasture conditions. Because of these improvements, severe drought has been removed from central Missouri.

 

 

 

Below is a list of observed precipitation including the departure from normal for
selected sites in Missouri and Illinois. The list includes information from local
airports and cooperative observers since June 1st.  

Location

Jun 1 - October 16, 2018 Precipitation

(Departure From Normal) 

Official Observations

 

St. Louis (KSTL)

13.44"
(-2.78")

Columbia (KCOU)

14.52"
(-4.36")

Quincy (KUIN)

20.27"
(+3.74")
   

Cooperative Observers

 

Canton L/D 20 (CANM7)

27.55"
(+9.52")

Farmington (FARM7)

18.43"
(+1.91")

Hannibal (HNNM7)

19.85"
(+1.69")

Highland (HGHI2)

19.02"
(+2.38")

Monroe City (MNCM7)

27.00"
(+8.66")

STL Science Center (SSCM7)

22.91"
(+5.97")

Shelbina (SLBM7)

23.48"
(+4.86")

Salem (SLOI2)

24.54"
(+7.94")

Saverton L/D 22 (SVRM7)

15.83"
(-1.32")

NWS Office Weldon Spring (LSX)

14.78"
(-3.00") 

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a weekly collaborative effort between a number of federal agencies including NOAA/NWS, U.S. Department of Agriculture and the National Drought Mitigation Center. Details and explanations of the Drought Monitor can found at the web site:

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

The categories of drought are defined as follows:

Abnormally Dry (D0) - Going into drought: short-term dryness slowing planting, growth of crops or pastures; fire risk above average. Coming out of drought: some lingering water deficits; pastures or crops not fully recovered.

Moderate Drought (D1) - Some damage to crops, pastures; fire risk high; streams, reservoirs, or wells low, some water shortages developing or imminent, voluntary water use restrictions requested.

Severe Drought (D2) - Crop or pasture losses likely; fire risk very high; water shortages common; water restrictions imposed.

Extreme Drought (D3) - Major crop/pasture losses; extreme fire danger; widespread water shortages or restrictions.

Exceptional Drought (D4) - Exceptional and widespread crop/pasture losses; exceptional fire risk; shortages of water in reservoirs, streams, and wells, creating water emergencies.

   

Soil Moisture Conditions:
Wet weather over the past two weeks has led to an improvement in soil moisture ranking percentiles. Currently, most of the state is near to above normal for mid October.
 Total Moisture Storage

Additional information about soil moisture conditions can be found at the NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Web Site at:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
soilmst/w.shtml

or at the Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC) at:

https://mcc.sws.uiuc.edu/cliwatch/
drought/drought.jsp


Agricultural Impacts:
According to the latest United States Department of Agriculture, soybean
condition was rated 7% very poor and 16% poor in the state of Missouri. Pasture condition was 7% very poor and 25% poor. 
 
Supply of hay is 42% very short and 33% short, with stock water supply 1%
very short and 26% short.

Additional information on agriculture impacts may be viewed at the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) web page:

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/index.php

 

River and Stream Flow Conditions:

Though the past week was not nearly as wet as the previous week, 7-day streamflow percentiles remained well above any drought thresholds, mostly above the 70th percentile. Lower percentile flows were found in parts of southeastern Missouri. However, these percentiles were still near normal for this time of year. Even the 28-day percentiles across Missouri and Illinois were mostly well above the 70th percentile.

 
Most area wells have shown improvement over the past week. The only notable exceptions were in Reynolds, northwestern Iron, and Crawford counties of southeastern Missouri, where wells near Lesterville, Bixby, and Onondoga Cave were at their lowest levels since the beginning of summer.

 

 

 

mo

 

map legend

Hourly and forecast river stages out to 90 days can be found at the National Weather Service's (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) web page:

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx

Additional Current stream and river stages may be viewed at the following USGS Web Site:

https://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch/


Fire Danger Hazards:

The current KBDI: Central Missouri: LOW 

Heavy rainfall over the past two weeks has to a decreased threat for fire danger since last week.

 

https://www.wfas.net/images/firedanger/kbdi.png

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) is a drought index that is specifically related to fire potential. The KBDI is broken into four categories which indicate the susceptibility of ground fuels to fire danger. Below are the four categories and a brief description of each.

Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI)
KBDI Value
Description of Fire Potential
0 to 200
Low - Wet with little danger of fire initiation
201 to 400
Moderate - Drying occurring with some fire danger
401 to 600
High - Ground cover dry and will burn readily
601 to 800
Extreme - Dead and live fuels will burn readily

KBDI and Dead Fuel Moisture data can be found on the Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS) web site at:

https://www.wfas.us


Precipitation/Temperature Outlooks:

The outlook for the next two weeks favors below normal temperatures and near to above normal precipitation. 

 

 

For updated temperature and precipitation probabilities consult the following Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Web Sites:

8 to 14 Day Outlook

30 Day Outlook

90 Day Outlook
 

 

Questions or Comments:

If you have any questions or comments about this information please contact:

Jayson Gosselin
Climate Services Focal Point 

or 

Mark Fuchs
Service Hydrologist

National Weather Service - St. Louis
12 Missouri Park Drive
St. Charles, MO  63304
(636) 441-8467
w-lsx.webmaster@noaa.gov

 

Our most recent Drought Information Statement (DGTLSX) is available at:
https://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=LSX&product=DGT&issuedby=LSX

 

Other Contacts:

For state climate impacts:
https://www.stateclimate.org/

Missouri State Climatologist:
https://climate.missouri.edu

Illinois State Climatologist:
https://www.isws.illinois.edu/atmos/statecli/

 


Acknowledgements:

The drought monitor is a multi-agency effort involving NOAA’s national weather service and national climatic data center, the USDA, state and regional center climatologists and the national drought mitigation center. Information for this statement has been gathered from NWS and FAA observation sites, cooperative and volunteer observations, USDAFS, the USDA and USGS.

 

 

 

Related Websites :

NWS - https://www.weather.gov/lsx

CPC - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

U.S. Drought Portal:
https://www.drought.gov

USGS - https://water.usgs.gov/

COE - https://www.mvr.usace.army.mil/

Missouri DNR Drought Page:
https://dnr.mo.gov/drought.htm


Illinois Water Survey Drought Pages:
https://www.isws.illinois.edu/hilites/drought/