What is El Niño and How Strong Is It?El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern Pacific near the equator are warmer than normal. During mid October, the SSTs continue to be anomalously warm with latest weekly average SSTs in the Niño-3.4 region over 2.0°C above normal.
There continues to be some disagreement among the differerent computer models that forecast the strength of El Niño. However, the majority do indicate that the three month average Niño-3.4 SST index will remain above 2.0°C through the winter which is considered very strong. In fact, this may end up being one of the strongest since records began in 1950. You can find the latest El Niño Advisory and an El Niño FAQ Page on the Climate Prediction (CPC) website. How Will El Niño Effect The Winter in the U.S.?The warmer than normal SSTs typically shift the patterns of the tropical rainfall that in turn changes the strength and location of the jet stream over the Pacific and consequently the continental U.S. This stronger jet stream over the southern U.S. brings increased storminess, more precipitation and cooler than normal temperatures from California to Florida. This pattern also prevents frequent cold air intrusions from Canada resulting in above normal temperatures over the northern U.S. CPC indicates that El Niño will be the dominate factor that will affect the Winter Outlook for the U.S.
How Have El Niños Effected Our Past Winters?Utilizing climatological data dating back to 1950 of previous El Niño years, the trend is for St. Louis and Columbia winters to have near or above normal temperatures. Records at St. Louis indicate that El Niño winters are drier and less snowy, but the statistics from Columbia show more snowy winters. Meanwhile, at Quincy, there have been an equal number of above and below normal winters with regards to temperature with a majority of winters also being dry, similar to St. Louis and Columbia. Of course weather doesn't always follow climatology and there were two cold and snowy winters during El Niño in the late 1970s.
The following is data from previous El Niño years at St. Louis and Columbia, MO as well as Quincy, IL:
The latest local three-month temperature outlook for St. Louis and Columbia, MO in addition to Quincy, IL that are downscaled from the CPC national outlooks indicate that there are near equal chances for above, below, or near normal temperatures for December through February at each location. Additional local three month temperature outlooks and background information can be found in the climate section of this website.
For additional information or questions about how this El Nino may impact eastern Missouri and southwest Illinois, contact: Mark Britt OR Jayson Gosselin |
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