Surf Forecast Matrices

* EXPERIMENTAL - NOT FOR OPERATIONAL USE *

Experimental Surf Forecast Matrix

In the tabs below you can view Surf Forecast Matrices for various beaches over the NWS Mobile/Pensacola forecast area. This product is experimental and not intended to be substituted for the official Surf Zone Forecast, which can be viewed HERE. Additional information on this project and variable definitions can be found HERE. We are seeking feedback on this over the next several months, so please send us your input via an online survey.

The Rip Probabilities included in the matrices below are from a rip current forecast model tied to NOAA's Nearshore Wave Prediction System. This model predicts the probabilities of hazardous rip currents occurring using output from the nearshore wave model and predicted tide levels. Values are calculated from 0-100%, hourly through 144 hours.

Dauphin Island, AL

Date               Fri 05/03                          Sat 05/04
CDT 3hrly          04   07   10   13   16   19   22   01   04   07   10   13   16   19

Rip Current Risk  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod
Rip Probability     9    9    9   12   14   14   14   16   15   14   13   16   17   15
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2
Dom Period (s)      5    4    5    5    6    6    6    6    6    6    6    6    6    6
Chance Precip       5    5   10   10   10   10   10   10   10   10   10    5    5    5
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        75   74   76   77   77   77   76   75   75   73   76   78   78   77
Heat Index                                                                            
Wind (mph)        S12  SE7 SE10 SE10  SE9  SE8  SE7   S8   S7  SE7  SE9  SE9   S9   S8
Wind Gust                                                                             


Date               Sun 05/05           Mon 05/06           Tue 05/07           Wed 05/08
CDT 6hrly          01   07   13   19   01   07   13   19   01   07   13   19   01   07   13

Rip Probability    17   16   24   23   21   21   35   41   36   32   43   55   43   31   40
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    3    3    3    3    3    3    3
Dom Period (s)      6    6    6    6    6    6    6    7    6    6    6    7    7    6    6
Chance Precip       5    5    5    0    5    5    5    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Mclr
Temperature        75   74   77   77   76   75   78   78   77   77   79   78   78   77   79
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)         S8 SE10 SE12 SE10  S10 SE12  S14  S14  S15  S15  S15  S15  S15  S15  S17
Wind Gust                                                  20        20   20   20        22

Fort Morgan, AL

Date               Fri 05/03                          Sat 05/04
CDT 3hrly          04   07   10   13   16   19   22   01   04   07   10   13   16   19

Rip Current Risk  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod
Rip Probability     6    6    7   10   11   11   13   14   13   12   13   16   17   16
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2
Dom Period (s)      4    4    5    5    6    6    6    6    6    6    6    6    6    6
Chance Precip       5    5   10   10   10   10   10   10   10    5    5    5    5    5
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        74   73   76   78   78   77   76   75   74   73   77   78   78   77
Heat Index                                                                            
Wind (mph)        SE7  SE6  SE8  SE9  SE8  SE6  SE6  SE6  SE5   E6  SE8  SE9   S8   S7
Wind Gust                                                                             


Date               Sun 05/05           Mon 05/06           Tue 05/07           Wed 05/08
CDT 6hrly          01   07   13   19   01   07   13   19   01   07   13   19   01   07   13

Rip Probability    17   16   28   27   22   22   41   46   39   32   46   58   46   33   41
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    2    2    2    2    3    3    3    3    3    3    3    3    3
Dom Period (s)      6    6    6    6    6    6    6    7    6    6    7    7    7    6    6
Chance Precip       0    5    5    0    5    5    5    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Mclr
Temperature        74   73   78   76   75   73   78   78   75   75   79   78   76   75   79
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)         S7  SE7 SE10   S8   S9 SE10 SE14  S13  S14  S13  S14  S14  S14  S14  S15
Wind Gust                                                                                20

Gulf Shores, AL

Date               Fri 05/03                          Sat 05/04
CDT 3hrly          04   07   10   13   16   19   22   01   04   07   10   13   16   19

Rip Current Risk  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod
Rip Probability     4    4    5    7    8    8    9   10    9    9   10   14   15   15
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2
Dom Period (s)      4    4    4    5    5    6    6    6    6    6    6    6    6    6
Chance Precip       5    5    5   10   10   10   10   10   10    5    5    5    5    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr
Temperature        73   73   75   78   78   77   75   74   73   72   77   79   79   76
Heat Index                                                                            
Wind (mph)        SE8  SE6  SE8  SE9  SE8  SE7  SE5  SE6  SE5   E6  SE8  SE9   S8   S7
Wind Gust                                                                             


Date               Sun 05/05           Mon 05/06           Tue 05/07           Wed 05/08
CDT 6hrly          01   07   13   19   01   07   13   19   01   07   13   19   01   07   13

Rip Probability    15   13   22   21   17   17   32   36   28   24   38   45   36   26   34
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    2    2    2    2    3    3    3    3    3    3    3    3    3
Dom Period (s)      6    6    6    6    6    6    6    6    6    6    7    7    6    6    6
Chance Precip       0    5    5    0    0    5    5    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Mclr
Temperature        74   73   78   76   75   73   78   78   75   74   79   78   76   75   79
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)         S7  SE7 SE10   S8  SE9 SE12 SE13  S12  S12  S10  S13  S13  S13  S14  S15
Wind Gust                                                                                20

Orange Beach, AL

Date               Fri 05/03                          Sat 05/04
CDT 3hrly          04   07   10   13   16   19   22   01   04   07   10   13   16   19

Rip Current Risk  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod
Rip Probability     5    5    5    8   10   10   10   11   11   10   12   17   20   19
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2
Dom Period (s)      4    4    4    5    6    6    6    6    6    6    6    6    6    6
Chance Precip       5    5    5   10   10   10   10   10   10    5    5    5    5    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Pcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr
Temperature        73   72   76   78   79   77   75   74   73   72   77   79   79   76
Heat Index                                                                            
Wind (mph)        SE7  SE6  SE8  SE9   S8   S7  SE5  SE5  SE5   E6  SE8  SE9   S8   S6
Wind Gust                                                                             


Date               Sun 05/05           Mon 05/06           Tue 05/07           Wed 05/08
CDT 6hrly          01   07   13   19   01   07   13   19   01   07   13   19   01   07   13

Rip Probability    18   16   27   26   21   22   39   43   35   31   45   53   42   32   40
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    2    2    2    2    3    3    3    3    3    3    3    3    3
Dom Period (s)      6    6    6    6    6    6    7    7    6    6    7    7    6    6    6
Chance Precip       0    5    5    0    0    5    5    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Mclr
Temperature        74   72   78   76   74   73   79   78   75   74   80   79   76   75   80
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)         S6   E7 SE10   S7  SE8 SE10 SE12  S12  S12  S10  S14  S13  S12  S13  S15
Wind Gust                                                                                20

Fort Pickens, FL

Date               Fri 05/03                          Sat 05/04
CDT 3hrly          04   07   10   13   16   19   22   01   04   07   10   13   16   19

Rip Current Risk  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod
Rip Probability     4    4    5    7    9    9    9   10   10    9   11   16   19   19
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2
Dom Period (s)      5    4    4    5    5    6    6    6    6    6    6    6    6    6
Chance Precip       5    5    5    5    5   10   10   10   10    5    5    5    5    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr
Temperature        73   72   76   78   79   77   76   75   73   73   78   79   79   76
Heat Index                                                                            
Wind (mph)        SE6  SE7  SE9 SE10   S9   S7   S5   S5  SE5   E6  SE8 SE10   S9   S7
Wind Gust                                                                             


Date               Sun 05/05           Mon 05/06           Tue 05/07           Wed 05/08
CDT 6hrly          01   07   13   19   01   07   13   19   01   07   13   19   01   07   13

Rip Probability    17   15   25   25   19   19   37   40   32   29   42   49   39   29   36
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    2    2    2    2    3    3    3    3    3    3    3    3    3
Dom Period (s)      6    6    6    6    6    6    7    7    6    7    7    7    6    6    6
Chance Precip       0    5    5    0    0    5    5    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Pcld Mclr Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Mclr
Temperature        74   72   78   77   74   73   79   78   75   74   79   79   75   75   80
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)         S6   E7 SE12   S8   S8 SE10  S14  S12  S12  S10  S14  S13  S12  S12  S15
Wind Gust

Pensacola Beach, FL

Date               Fri 05/03                          Sat 05/04
CDT 3hrly          04   07   10   13   16   19   22   01   04   07   10   13   16   19

Rip Current Risk  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod
Rip Probability     4    4    5    9   11   10   10   11   11   11   14   21   27   25
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    2    2    2
Dom Period (s)      5    4    4    5    5    6    6    6    6    6    6    6    6    6
Chance Precip       5    5    5    5    5   10   10   10   10    5    5   10   10    5
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr
Temperature        72   72   77   78   79   77   76   76   73   73   77   79   79   76
Heat Index                                                                            
Wind (mph)        SE3   E6  SE9 SE10   S9   S7   S5  SE5   E3   E5  SE8 SE10  S10   S7
Wind Gust                         15   14                                             


Date               Sun 05/05           Mon 05/06           Tue 05/07           Wed 05/08
CDT 6hrly          01   07   13   19   01   07   13   19   01   07   13   19   01   07   13

Rip Probability    20   18   35   34   22   22   49   56   43   36   55   67   52   36   47
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2
Dom Period (s)      6    6    6    6    6    6    7    6    6    7    7    7    6    6    6
Chance Precip       0    0    5    0    0    5    5    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Mclr
Temperature        73   72   80   78   74   73   80   78   74   73   79   78   75   74   80
Heat Index                                                                               84
Wind (mph)         S6   E7 SE13   S9   S7  SE9  S14  S12  S12  S10  S14  S14  S12  S10  S14
Wind Gust

Navarre Beach, FL

Date               Fri 05/03                          Sat 05/04
CDT 3hrly          04   07   10   13   16   19   22   01   04   07   10   13   16   19

Rip Current Risk  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod
Rip Probability     4    4    5    8   11    9    8    9   10    9   13   21   27   23
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    2    1    1    1    1    1    1    2    2    2
Dom Period (s)      5    4    4    5    5    5    5    5    5    6    6    6    6    6
Chance Precip       5    5    5    5    5   10   10   10   10    5    5   10   10    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr
Temperature        71   71   76   77   78   77   75   74   72   72   77   78   79   76
Heat Index                                                                            
Wind (mph)        SE5   E6  SE9  S10   S9   S7   S5   S5   E3   E6  SE8  S10  S10   S7
Wind Gust                         15                                                  


Date               Sun 05/05           Mon 05/06           Tue 05/07           Wed 05/08
CDT 6hrly          01   07   13   19   01   07   13   19   01   07   13   19   01   07   13

Rip Probability    18   16   34   32   20   19   45   54   40   33   53   63   49   33   46
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    3    2    2    2    3
Dom Period (s)      6    6    6    6    6    6    6    6    6    6    7    6    6    6    6
Chance Precip       0    0    5    0    0    5    5    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Mclr
Temperature        73   71   79   77   74   72   79   78   75   74   79   77   76   74   80
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)         S6   E8  S15   S8   S7  SE8  S14  S12  S10  S10  S14  S13  S10  S10  S15
Wind Gust                    20                                                          20

Fort Walton Beach, FL

Date               Fri 05/03                          Sat 05/04
CDT 3hrly          04   07   10   13   16   19   22   01   04   07   10   13   16   19

Rip Current Risk  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod
Rip Probability     3    2    3    6    8    7    7    8    8    8   10   16   20   18
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    2    1    1    1    1    1    2    2    2    2
Dom Period (s)      5    5    4    5    5    5    5    5    5    6    6    6    6    6
Chance Precip       5    5    5    5    5    5   10   10   10    5    5   10   10    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr
Temperature        71   70   76   77   78   76   75   74   72   71   77   79   79   76
Heat Index                                                                            
Wind (mph)        SE3   E6  SE8  S10  S10   S6   S5   S3   E3   E5  SE8  S10  S10   S7
Wind Gust                                                                             


Date               Sun 05/05           Mon 05/06           Tue 05/07           Wed 05/08
CDT 6hrly          01   07   13   19   01   07   13   19   01   07   13   19   01   07   13

Rip Probability    14   11   27   24   15   13   37   44   31   25   46   53   39   26   40
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    2    2    2    2    3    3    2    3    3    3    3    3    3
Dom Period (s)      6    6    6    6    6    6    6    6    6    6    7    6    6    6    6
Chance Precip       0    0    5    0    0    0    5    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Mclr Pcld Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Mclr
Temperature        73   71   78   77   74   72   79   78   75   74   78   78   76   75   80
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)         S5   E7  S14   S8   S6  SE8  S14  S12   S9   S9  S15  S13  S10  S10  S15
Wind Gust                                                            20                  20

Destin, FL

Date               Fri 05/03                          Sat 05/04
CDT 3hrly          04   07   10   13   16   19   22   01   04   07   10   13   16   19

Rip Current Risk  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod
Rip Probability     3    2    3    6    8    7    7    7    7    7    9   16   21   19
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    2    2    2    2
Dom Period (s)      5    5    5    5    5    6    5    5    5    6    6    6    6    6
Chance Precip       5    5    5    5    5    5    5    5    5    5    5   10   10    5
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr
Temperature        71   70   75   76   77   76   75   74   72   72   76   78   78   75
Heat Index                                                                            
Wind (mph)        SE3   E6  SE8  S10   S9   S7   S5   S3  NE3   E5  SE8  S10  S10   S7
Wind Gust                                                                             


Date               Sun 05/05           Mon 05/06           Tue 05/07           Wed 05/08
CDT 6hrly          01   07   13   19   01   07   13   19   01   07   13   19   01   07   13

Rip Probability    14   11   27   26   14   13   42   48   32   26   52   58   41   28   44
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    2    2    2    2    3    3    2    3    3    3    3    3    3
Dom Period (s)      6    6    6    6    6    6    7    6    6    6    7    6    6    6    6
Chance Precip       0    0    5    0    0    0    5    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Mclr Pcld Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Mclr
Temperature        73   72   78   77   74   73   78   77   75   74   78   78   76   75   79
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)         S3   E7  S12   S8   S6  SE7  S14  S12  S10   S9  S15  S13  S12  S10  S15
Wind Gust                                                            20                  20

Surf Forecast Matrices

*** EXPERIMENTAL - NOT FOR OPERATIONAL USE ***

* EXPERIMENTAL - NOT FOR OPERATIONAL USE *