National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
**This page will replace the old fire weather page that can still be found here as of 1/1/18. Please send suggestions, comments, and any concerns to
sr-mrx.webmaster@noaa.gov
 
These products and outlook graphics can be used to support the fire weather program across east Tennessee, southwest Virginia, and southwest North Carolina. For more information, please call the NWS Morristown, Tennessee.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Request a SPOT Forecast

 

 

 

 

 

 

                           Energy Release Component                                                                                   Haines

                                                           

 
 
 
Fire Weather Forecasts
7-Day Forecasts Current Local Radar

Hourly Forecast

 

 

Current Local Radar
     
Hourly Weather Forecast Latest Fire Weather Forecast
Hourly Forecast

 

025
FNUS54 KMRX 221554
FWFMRX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for East Tennessee...Southwest
Virginia...and Extreme Southwest North Carolina
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1054 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated to update temperature trends for the day.

Increasing southerly winds ahead of an approaching cold front will
pull warm and moist air into the Tennessee valley and southern
Appalachians Today. A frontal boundary will move across the region
late this afternoon and evening bringing with it showers and
possibly thunderstorms across the Plateau and southern half of the
Tennessee valley.

Windy conditions will be felt across the Mountains and adjacent
foothills today and tonight.  Cooler temperatures and drier
conditions can be expected for Tuesday and Wednesday.



VAZ001-002-005-006-008-231700-
Jefferson National Forest/Virginia District 6-
1054 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Tue

Cloud cover           PCldy        MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      58-63 (+4)   37-42 (0)    42-47
RH % (24h trend)      49-54 (-3)   95-100 (+9)  52-57
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     S  9 G31                  SW 14 G31
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     S 13 G34     S 15 G40     W 11 G27
Precip type           showers      showers      showers
Chance precip (%)     30           80           30
Precip duration       1            4            1
Precip begin          4 PM         Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.01         0.26         0.02
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI/Haines           3                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    4200                      3600
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   2200                      1500
Transport wnd (mph)   S 24                      SW 22
Dispersion            45 Gen good               29 Fair
33ft wind-AM(mph)     S 12 G31                  SW 17 G31
33ft wind-PM(mph)     S 16 G34     S 18 G40     W 14 G27

Remarks...None.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and snow
showers. Lows in the 20s to lower 30s. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers and snow
showers. Highs in the upper 20s to lower 40s. West winds 5 to
10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower to mid 20s.
West winds less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the mid 30s to upper 40s.
South winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the upper
40s to mid 50s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers likely. Lows around 40. Highs in the 40s to
mid 50s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Showers likely and chance of snow showers. Lows in the
mid 20s. Highs in the 40s to mid 50s. Northwest winds less than
10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-231700-
Northern Cherokee National Forest-
1054 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Tue

Cloud cover           PCldy        MCldy        PCldy
Temp (24h trend)      55-60 (0)    37-42 (+1)   42-47
RH % (24h trend)      52-57 (+1)   95-100 (+7)  45-50
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     S 15 G43                  W 13 G32
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     S 19 G51     S 18 G54     W 14 G32
Precip type           showers      showers      showers
Chance precip (%)     30           80           30
Precip duration       1            4            1
Precip begin          1 PM         Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.01         0.37         0.02
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI/Haines           3                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    4700                      3700
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   1900                      900
Transport wnd (mph)   S 29                      W 23
Dispersion            46 Gen good               16 Gen poor
33ft wind-AM(mph)     S 19 G43                  W 16 G32
33ft wind-PM(mph)     S 23 G51     S 22 G54     W 17 G32

Remarks...None.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and snow
showers. Lows in the 20s to lower 30s. West winds 5 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers and snow
showers. Highs in the lower 30s to mid 40s. West winds 5 to
10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower to mid 20s.
Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the mid 30s to upper 40s.
South winds up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
mid 30s. Highs in the 40s to 50s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the
mid 40s to upper 50s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Showers likely and chance of snow showers. Lows in the
mid 20s. Highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Northwest winds up to
10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ072-074-231700-
Tennessee Portion Of The Great Smoky Mountain National Park-
1054 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Tue

Cloud cover           MCldy        MCldy        PCldy
Temp (24h trend)      55-60 (0)    35-40 (-1)   39-44
RH % (24h trend)      56-61 (+4)   95-100 (+6)  49-54
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     S 19 G54                  W 15 G36
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     S 24 G65     S 21 G66     W 13 G31
Precip type           showers      showers      showers
Chance precip (%)     40           80           20
Precip duration       1            6            1
Precip begin          1 PM         Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.06         0.47         0.02
LAL                   2            1            1
LASI/Haines           3                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    5000                      3900
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   2000                      900
Transport wnd (mph)   S 39                      W 24
Dispersion            63 Good                   17 Gen poor
33ft wind-AM(mph)     S 24 G54                  W 18 G36
33ft wind-PM(mph)     S 31 G65     S 26 G66     W 16 G31

Remarks...None.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of snow showers.
Lows in the 20s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 30s to mid 40s.
West winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the 20s. Northwest winds
up to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Clear. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 50s. South
winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
upper 30s. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s. South winds up to
10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers likely. Lows around 40. Highs in the 40s to
mid 50s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and snow showers. Lows
in the mid 20s. Highs near 50. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ087-102-231700-
Southern Cherokee National Forest-
1054 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Tue

Cloud cover           MCldy        PCldy        PCldy
Temp (24h trend)      57-62 (-1)   36-41 (+2)   42-47
RH % (24h trend)      64-69 (+14)  95-100 (+1)  49-54
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     SE 17 G45                 W 11 G27
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     S 20 G50     S 16 G50     W 10 G23
Precip type           tstms        tstms        showers
Chance precip (%)     80           80           20
Precip duration       3            3            1
Precip begin          10 AM        Continuing   7 AM
Precip end            Continuing   4 AM         7 PM
Precip amount         0.11         0.34         0.01
LAL                   2            3            1
LASI/Haines           3                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    3800                      3700
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   1800                      1600
Transport wnd (mph)   S 33                      W 20
Dispersion            50 Gen good               26 Fair
33ft wind-AM(mph)     SE 21 G45                 W 15 G27
33ft wind-PM(mph)     S 24 G50     S 20 G50     W 13 G23

Remarks...None.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Northwest winds
up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s to upper 40s.
West winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the 20s. Northwest winds
less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Clear. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. Southeast winds
less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 40. Highs in the 40s to
upper 50s. Southeast winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the
40s to mid 50s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and snow showers. Lows
in the upper 20s. Highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Northwest
winds 5 to 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

NCZ060-061-231700-
Nantahala National Forest-
1054 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Tue

CLOUD COVER           MCldy        PCldy        PCldy
TEMP (24H TREND)      55-60 (0)    37-42 (+5)   42-47
RH % (24H TREND)      69-74 (+11)  95-100 (0)   49-54
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SE 12 G34                 W 11 G27
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 14 G38     S 13 G40     W 11 G25
PRECIP TYPE           tstms        tstms        showers
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           80           10
PRECIP DURATION       1            6            1
PRECIP BEGIN          10 AM        Continuing   Continuing
PRECIP END            Continuing   Continuing   7 PM
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.13         0.49         0.01
LAL                   2            2            1
LASI/Haines           2                         3
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    3800                      3700
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL)*   1500                      1400
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   S 23                      W 18
DISPERSION            28 Fair                   20 Gen poor
MAX LVORI             5                         4
33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     SE 15 G34                 W 14 G27
33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     S 18 G38     S 17 G40     W 14 G25

Remarks...None.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. Northwest
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 30s to upper 40s. Northwest
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s. Northwest
winds up to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Clear. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. East winds less
than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
upper 30s. Highs in the mid 40s to upper 50s. Southeast winds up
to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the
40s to mid 50s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and snow showers. Lows
in the mid 20s. Highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Northwest
winds up to 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-231700-
East Tennessee District East-
1054 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Tue

Cloud cover           PCldy        MCldy        PCldy
Temp (24h trend)      60-65 (+4)   38-43 (+3)   43-48
RH % (24h trend)      50-55 (0)    95-100 (+5)  48-53
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     SE  8 G32                 W 14 G31
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     S 12 G34     S 12 G35     W 13 G30
Precip type           showers      showers      showers
Chance precip (%)     20           70           20
Precip duration       1            3            1
Precip begin          4 PM         Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.01         0.24         0.02
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI/Haines           4                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    4000                      3600
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   2500                      2100
Transport wnd (mph)   S 24                      W 24
Dispersion            51 Gen good               45 Gen good
33ft wind-AM(mph)     SE 10 G32                 W 18 G31
33ft wind-PM(mph)     S 16 G34     S 16 G35     W 16 G30

Remarks...None.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of snow showers.
Lows in the 20s to lower 30s. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 30s to mid 40s.
West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. West winds
less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the 30s to upper 40s.
Southeast winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the 40s
to upper 50s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers likely. Lows around 40. Highs in the 40s to
upper 50s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Showers likely and chance of snow showers. Lows in the
upper 20s. Highs near 50. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-231700-
East Tennessee District West-
1054 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Tue

Cloud cover           MCldy        PCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      59-64 (+3)   37-42 (-1)   42-47
RH % (24h trend)      56-61 (+7)   94-99 (+3)   50-55
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     S 10 G35                  SW 12 G27
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     S 16 G41     S 15 G41     W 10 G25
Precip type           tstms        tstms        showers
Chance precip (%)     70           70           20
Precip duration       3            2            1
Precip begin          10 AM        Continuing   7 AM
Precip end            Continuing   4 AM         7 PM
Precip amount         0.08         0.20         0.02
LAL                   2            3            1
LASI/Haines           3                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    3700                      3600
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   2400                      2300
Transport wnd (mph)   S 29                      W 22
Dispersion            60 Gen good               43 Gen good
33ft wind-AM(mph)     S 13 G35                  SW 15 G27
33ft wind-PM(mph)     S 20 G41     S 19 G41     W 13 G25

Remarks...None.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s.
West winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s to upper 40s.
West winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s. West winds
less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Clear. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. South winds
less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 40. Highs in the 50s. South
winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers likely. Lows around 40. Highs in the 50s.
West winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and snow showers. Lows
in the upper 20s. Highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Northwest
winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ077-079>085-097>101-231700-
Cumberland District South-
1054 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 /954 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018/

                      Today        Tonight      Tue

Cloud cover           MCldy        PCldy        PCldy
Temp (24h trend)      58-63 (-3)   36-41 (-2)   42-47
RH % (24h trend)      65-70 (+20)  88-93 (-3)   48-53
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     S 12 G38                  W 11 G25
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     S 17 G41     SW 16 G41    W 10 G23
Precip type           tstms        tstms        NONE
Chance precip (%)     80           60           0
Precip duration       3            1
Precip begin          10 AM        Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   4 AM
Precip amount         0.23         0.16         0.00
LAL                   2            3            1
LASI/Haines           2                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    3500                      3600
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   2300                      2400
Transport wnd (mph)   S 31                      W 21
Dispersion            63 Good                   42 Gen good
33ft wind-AM(mph)     S 15 G38                  W 14 G25
33ft wind-PM(mph)     S 22 G41     SW 20 G41    W 13 G23

Remarks...None.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s.
Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. West winds up
to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s to lower
30s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Clear. Highs in the 40s to mid 50s. Southeast winds
less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 40s. Highs in the 50s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the
50s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
snow showers. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the mid 40s to
lower 50s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$


Digital Tabular Forecast
Hourly Forecast

Minimum Potential Accumulation

Expect at least this much. This is what we see as the least amount of snow the storm can produce.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.
 

Most Likely Snow Accumulation

Represents our official snow forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The snowfall amounts are provided in point (single number) and ranges (1-2", 2-4", etc.). You can toggle between the two by hovering over the "Point" and "Range" text above the image. The point amount is our forecast but the range for the "most likely" represents the forecast uncertainty in predefined ranges.

Maximum Potential Accumulation

What you should be prepared for. This is what we see as the storm's maximum potential snowfall accumulation.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.

 

Short to Long-Range Forecast
 
Day 1 Forecast Precipitation Day 2 Forecast Precipitation
Days 1-2 Precip Days 1-3 Precip
   
Day 3 Forecast Precipitation Days 1-3 Forecast Precipitation
Days 4-5 Precip Days 6-7 Precip
   

Days 6-10

Temperature  Precipitation
6-10 day temperature 6-10 day precipitation
   

Days 8-14

TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
8-14 day temperature 8-14 day precipitation

 

Products
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST DISCUSSION SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

 

 

  Additional Forecasts and Outlooks

  Fire Weather Outlook Issued by the Storm Prediction Center

  National Fire Weather Page

  Forecast Fire Danger Rating

  Drought Monitor

 

  Fire Weather Observations and Data

  Local RAWS Sites Information                                             Observed Fire Danger Rating                                 Observed 10-hour Fuel Moisture

  Current Local Observations                                                  Palmer Drought Index Map of the U.S.                   Observed 100-hour Fuel Moisture                    

  Wildland Fire Assessment System                                       Haines Index Map of the U.S.                                 Observed 1000-hour Fuel Moisture

  MADIS Meteorological Surface Observation Viewer            Keetch-Byram Drought Index Map of the U.S.

 

  Fire Weather Planning Tools                                             Fire Weather Annual Operating Plans                 Weather Normals and Records

 Graphical Planning Forecast Specific Point                          Tennessee                                                               Chattanooga

 Weather Activity Planner Specific Point                                Virginia                                                                     Knoxville

 Point Forecast Matrices  Specific Point                                 North Carolina                                                         Oak Ridge

 Southern Area Coordination Center                                                                                                                      Tri-Cities

 Tennessee Fire Prevention 

 Fire Weather Awareness Week