National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
Please see this Service Change Notification on how Fire Weather boundaries, zone names and numbers will change on April 2nd, 2019.
 
 
These products and outlook graphics can be used to support the fire weather program across east Tennessee, southwest Virginia, and southwest North Carolina. For more information, please call the NWS Morristown, Tennessee.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

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000
FNUS54 KMRX 191857
FWFMRX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for East Tennessee...Southwest
Virginia...and Extreme Southwest North Carolina
National Weather Service Morristown TN
257 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Expect cool and dry weather across the Tennessee Valley and Southern
Appalachian through mid week. Wednesday night into Thursday, a weak
system approaches from the northwest, which will increase chances
for light and scattered showers. However, most places will remain
dry through the rest of the work week.



VAZ001-002-005-006-008-202000-
Jefferson National Forest/Virginia District 6-
257 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

                      Tonight      Wed          Wed Night    Thu

Cloud cover           MClear       MClear       PCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      28-33 (+5)   52-57 (+4)   35-40        47-52
RH % (24h trend)      56-61 (-9)   31-36 (+4)   83-88        55-60
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  LGT/VAR                   SW  7 G19
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      S  5         LGT/VAR      NW  9 G21
Precip type           None         None         Showers      Showers
Chance precip (%)     0            0            30           50
Precip duration                                 1            1
Precip begin                                    3 AM         Continuing
Precip end                                      Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.02         0.08
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        5                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 5800                      7000
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                3800                      4900
Transport wnd (mph)                S  7                      W 23
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 40600                     161000
Dispersion                         23 Fair                   101 Very good
Max LVORI                          2                         3
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  S  5                      SW  8 G19
33ft wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      S  6         S  5         NW 11 G21

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows
in the upper 20s to mid 30s. West winds 5 to 15 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows near 30. Northwest winds 5 to
15 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the mid 40s to upper 50s.
Northeast winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the mid 40s.
Highs in the lower 50s to mid 60s. Southwest winds less than
10 mph.
.MONDAY...Showers likely. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the mid
50s to lower 60s. North winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the lower
30s. Highs in the 40s to mid 50s. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-202000-
Northern Cherokee National Forest-
257 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

                      Tonight      Wed          Wed Night    Thu

Cloud cover           MClear       MClear       PCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      27-32 (+7)   48-53 (+3)   32-37        44-49
RH % (24h trend)      55-60 (-12)  34-39 (+4)   82-87        57-62
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  LGT/VAR                   W  8 G21
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  5         NW 11 G28
Precip type           None         None         Showers      Showers
Chance precip (%)     0            0            30           40
Precip duration                                 1            1
Precip begin                                    4 AM         Continuing
Precip end                                      Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.01         0.02
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        5                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 6300                      7100
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                3600                      4300
Transport wnd (mph)                S  6                      W 28
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 37800                     198800
Dispersion                         15 Gen poor               102 Very good
Max LVORI                          2                         3
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  SE  5                     W 10 G21
33ft wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  7         NW 14 G28

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows
in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s to upper 50s.
Northwest winds 5 to 20 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows near 30. Northwest winds 5 to
15 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the mid 40s to upper 50s.
Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the lower
40s. Highs in the lower 50s to mid 60s. Southwest winds less than
10 mph.
.MONDAY...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the
lower 50s to mid 60s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the lower
30s. Highs in the 40s to mid 50s. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ072-074-202000-
Tennessee Portion Of The Great Smoky Mountain National Park-
257 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

                      Tonight      Wed          Wed Night    Thu

Cloud cover           MClear       MClear       PCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      28-33 (+7)   49-54 (+5)   33-38        46-51
RH % (24h trend)      61-66 (+3)   38-43 (+3)   82-87        51-56
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  LGT/VAR                   W  8 G21
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SW  6        NW 11 G30
Precip type           None         None         Showers      Showers
Chance precip (%)     0            0            30           30
Precip duration                                 1            1
Precip begin                                    3 AM         Continuing
Precip end                                      Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.01         0.02
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        4                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 6400                      7400
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                3400                      4400
Transport wnd (mph)                SW  5                     W 28
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 32000                     207200
Dispersion                         12 Poor                   101 Very good
Max LVORI                          2                         3
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  LGT/VAR                   W 11 G21
33ft wind-PM(mph)     E  5         NW  5        SW  7        NW 15 G30

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows
in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s to lower 60s.
Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. North
winds 5 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the mid 40s to lower 60s.
Southeast winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the lower
40s. Highs in the lower 50s to mid 60s. Southwest winds up to
10 mph.
.MONDAY...Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows
in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 50s to mid 60s. Southwest
winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the mid 30s.
Highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ087-102-202000-
Southern Cherokee National Forest-
257 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

                      Tonight      Wed          Wed Night    Thu

Cloud cover           Clear        MClear       PCldy        PCldy
Temp (24h trend)      29-34 (+5)   52-57 (+3)   35-40        51-56
RH % (24h trend)      58-63 (-5)   34-39 (+2)   80-85        48-53
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  LGT/VAR                   W  7 G20
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  5         NW 10 G25
Precip type           None         None         Showers      Showers
Chance precip (%)     0            0            20           30
Precip duration                                 1            1
Precip begin                                    4 AM         Continuing
Precip end                                      Continuing   8 PM
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.01         0.02
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        5                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 6200                      7300
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                4200                      5300
Transport wnd (mph)                SW  5                     NW 25
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 31000                     182500
Dispersion                         15 Gen poor               116 Very good
Max LVORI                          2                         3
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  LGT/VAR                   W  9 G20
33ft wind-PM(mph)     NE  5        LGT/VAR      S  7         NW 13 G25

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s to upper 30s.
North winds 5 to 15 mph.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Northwest winds
5 to 15 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 30s. North winds up to
10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. East
winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the mid 40s.
Highs in the lower 50s to mid 60s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the
mid 40s. Highs in the 50s to mid 60s. West winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the upper
30s. Highs in the 50s. North winds up to 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

NCZ060-061-202000-
Nantahala National Forest-
257 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

                      Tonight      Wed          Wed Night    Thu

Cloud cover           Clear        MClear       PCldy        PCldy
Temp (24h trend)      28-33 (+5)   52-57 (+3)   34-39        50-55
RH % (24h trend)      58-63 (-17)  33-38 (+1)   79-84        51-56
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  LGT/VAR                   W  7 G19
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      NW 11 G26
Precip type           None         None         Showers      Showers
Chance precip (%)     0            0            20           30
Precip duration                                 1            1
Precip begin                                    4 AM         Continuing
Precip end                                      Continuing   8 PM
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.01         0.02
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        5                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 6800                      7500
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                4500                      5300
Transport wnd (mph)                S  3                      NW 26
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 20400                     195000
Dispersion                         13 Gen poor               119 Very good
Max LVORI                          2                         3
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  LGT/VAR                   W  8 G19
33ft wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  5         NW 14 G26

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s to mid
30s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Northwest winds
5 to 15 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 30s. North winds up to
10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. East
winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the mid 40s.
Highs in the 50s to mid 60s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the
mid 40s. Highs in the 50s to mid 60s. Southwest winds up to
10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the upper
30s. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. North winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-202000-
East Tennessee District East-
257 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

                      Tonight      Wed          Wed Night    Thu

Cloud cover           MClear       MClear       PCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      28-33 (+5)   53-58 (+4)   35-40        49-54
RH % (24h trend)      60-65 (-11)  33-38 (+6)   83-88        51-56
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  LGT/VAR                   SW  6 G19
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      NW  9 G21
Precip type           None         None         Showers      Showers
Chance precip (%)     0            0            30           40
Precip duration                                 1            1
Precip begin                                    3 AM         Continuing
Precip end                                      Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.01         0.04
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        5                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 5500                      6900
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                4000                      5400
Transport wnd (mph)                SW  5                     W 25
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 27500                     172500
Dispersion                         15 Gen poor               117 Very good
Max LVORI                          2                         4
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  LGT/VAR                   SW  9 G19
33ft wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  5         NW 11 G21

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows
in the lower to mid 30s. West winds up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s. Northwest
winds 5 to 15 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s.
Northeast winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the mid 40s.
Highs in the 50s to mid 60s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the 50s
to mid 60s. East winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Cooler. Lows in the
mid 30s. Highs in the 40s to mid 50s. Northeast winds less than
10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-202000-
East Tennessee District West-
257 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

                      Tonight      Wed          Wed Night    Thu

Cloud cover           MClear       MClear       MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      30-35 (+5)   54-59 (+4)   37-42        52-57
RH % (24h trend)      62-67 (-5)   32-37 (+3)   86-91        49-54
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  LGT/VAR                   W  5 G18
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      SW  5        LGT/VAR      NW  9 G21
Precip type           None         None         Showers      Showers
Chance precip (%)     0            0            30           30
Precip duration                                 1            1
Precip begin                                    2 AM         Continuing
Precip end                                      Continuing   8 PM
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.02         0.05
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        5                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 5400                      7100
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                4100                      5900
Transport wnd (mph)                SW  7                     NW 24
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 37800                     170400
Dispersion                         24 Fair                   124 Very good
Max LVORI                          2                         4
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  LGT/VAR                   W  7 G18
33ft wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      SW  6        SW  5        NW 11 G21

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. West winds up
to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 30s. North winds up to
10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the upper 40s to lower 60s.
Northeast winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the mid 40s.
Highs in the mid 50s to upper 60s. Southwest winds less than
10 mph.
.MONDAY...Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows
in the lower 40s. Highs in the 50s to upper 60s. North winds up
to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the upper
30s. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s. North winds up to 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ077-079>085-097>101-202000-
Cumberland District South-
257 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019 /157 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019/

                      Tonight      Wed          Wed Night    Thu

Cloud cover           Clear        MClear       MCldy        PCldy
Temp (24h trend)      30-35 (+3)   55-60 (+4)   38-43        54-59
RH % (24h trend)      61-66 (-1)   31-36 (+3)   86-91        47-52
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  LGT/VAR                   NW  6 G19
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      NW 10 G21
Precip type           None         None         Showers      Showers
Chance precip (%)     0            0            20           30
Precip duration                                 1            1
Precip begin                                    2 AM         Continuing
Precip end                                      Continuing   4 PM
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.02         0.03
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        5                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 5200                      6900
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                4100                      5800
Transport wnd (mph)                SW  7                     NW 24
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 36400                     165600
Dispersion                         23 Fair                   119 Very good
Max LVORI                          2                         4
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  S  5                      NW  8 G19
33ft wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      SW  5        SW  5        NW 12 G21

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Northwest winds
up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs near 60. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the 30s. North winds less than
10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. East
winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the upper
40s. Highs in the 60s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the
mid 40s. Highs in the 50s to upper 60s. North winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the upper
30s. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. North winds up to 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

Digital Tabular Forecast
Hourly Forecast

Minimum Potential Accumulation

Expect at least this much. This is what we see as the least amount of snow the storm can produce.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.
 

Most Likely Snow Accumulation

Represents our official snow forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The snowfall amounts are provided in point (single number) and ranges (1-2", 2-4", etc.). You can toggle between the two by hovering over the "Point" and "Range" text above the image. The point amount is our forecast but the range for the "most likely" represents the forecast uncertainty in predefined ranges.

Maximum Potential Accumulation

What you should be prepared for. This is what we see as the storm's maximum potential snowfall accumulation.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.

 

Short to Long-Range Forecast
 
Day 1 Forecast Precipitation Day 2 Forecast Precipitation
Days 1-2 Precip Days 1-3 Precip
   
Day 3 Forecast Precipitation Days 1-3 Forecast Precipitation
Days 4-5 Precip Days 6-7 Precip
   

Days 6-10

Temperature  Precipitation
6-10 day temperature 6-10 day precipitation
   

Days 8-14

TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
8-14 day temperature 8-14 day precipitation

 

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