National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
 
These products and outlook graphics can be used to support the fire weather program across east Tennessee, southwest Virginia, and southwest North Carolina. For more information, please call the NWS Morristown, Tennessee.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Request a SPOT Forecast

 

 

 

 

 

 

                           Energy Release Component                                                                                   Haines

                                                           

 
 
 
Fire Weather Forecasts
7-Day Forecasts Current Local Radar

Hourly Forecast

 

 

Current Local Radar
     
Hourly Weather Forecast Latest Fire Weather Forecast
Hourly Forecast

 

000
FNUS54 KMRX 180742
FWFMRX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for East Tennessee...Southwest
Virginia...and Extreme Southwest North Carolina
National Weather Service Morristown TN
242 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

.DISCUSSION...
The Southern Appalachian Region will remain in a rather
active weather pattern through the weekend.  A brief break in the
precipitation is forecast today with widespread cloud cover
continuing. A strong storm system will move in on Saturday with
widespread rain and possibly a few thunderstorms. Much colder air
will move in behind the departing front on Sunday into Monday.



VAZ001-002-005-006-008-190845-
Jefferson National Forest/Virginia District 6-
242 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

                      Today        Tonight      Sat

Cloud cover           MCldy        MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      41-46 (+6)   34-39 (+1)   51-56
RH % (24h trend)      75-80 (-2)   94-99 (-3)   69-74
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   SE  8 G25
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  9 G25
Precip type           Showers      None         Showers
Chance precip (%)     20           0            80
Precip duration       1                         5
Precip begin          7 AM                      Continuing
Precip end            10 AM                     Continuing
Precip amount         0.01         0.00         0.82
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI/Haines           3                         2
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    3700                      4100
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   1700                      2100
Transport wnd (mph)   W  7                      S 29
Vent Rate (mph-ft)    25900                     118900
Dispersion            9 Poor                    51 Gen good
Max LVORI             7                         4
33ft wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   SE 10 G25
33ft wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S 12 G25

Remarks...None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers or snow showers. Lows in the upper
teens to lower 30s. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph shifting to the
northwest after midnight.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs in the 20s
to lower 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Much colder. Lows 3 to 13.
Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the 20s to lower 30s. Southeast
winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or slight chance of
light freezing rain. Not as cool. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in
the 40s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Rain or snow likely. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in
the 40s to lower 50s. West winds up to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or snow. Lows in the
mid 20s. Highs in the 30s to lower 40s. West winds up to 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-190845-
Northern Cherokee National Forest-
242 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

                      Today        Tonight      Sat

Cloud cover           MCldy        MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      40-45 (+4)   35-40 (+3)   50-55
RH % (24h trend)      79-84 (+7)   93-98 (-4)   66-71
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     W  5                      S 11 G28
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S 11 G27
Precip type           Showers      Showers      Showers
Chance precip (%)     40           20           70
Precip duration       1            1            3
Precip begin          7 AM         1 AM         Continuing
Precip end            12 PM        Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.02         0.01         0.53
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI/Haines           3                         2
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    4300                      4500
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   1500                      1800
Transport wnd (mph)   W 10                      S 30
Vent Rate (mph-ft)    43000                     135000
Dispersion            12 Poor                   45 Gen good
Max LVORI             6                         4
33ft wind-AM(mph)     W  6                      S 13 G28
33ft wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      S  5         S 14 G27

Remarks...None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers or light freezing rain. Lows in the 20s
to lower 30s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the west
5 to 15 mph after midnight.
.SUNDAY...Snow showers likely. Highs in the lower 20s to mid 30s.
Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Colder. Lows 6 to 15. Northwest
winds 5 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the 20s to mid 30s. Southeast
winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or light freezing rain.
Not as cool. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the upper 30s to
lower 50s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Rain or light freezing rain likely. Lows in the
lower 30s. Highs in the lower 40s to mid 50s. West winds up to
10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or light freezing rain
or light sleet. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the lower 30s to
mid 40s. West winds up to 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ072-074-190845-
Tennessee Portion Of The Great Smoky Mountain National Park-
242 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

                      Today        Tonight      Sat

Cloud cover           MCldy        MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      42-47 (+4)   37-42 (+3)   52-57
RH % (24h trend)      74-79 (+9)   90-95 (-7)   65-70
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   S 14 G37
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      S  5 G16     S 14 G37
Precip type           Showers      Showers      Showers
Chance precip (%)     20           30           80
Precip duration       1            1            5
Precip begin          7 AM         12 AM        Continuing
Precip end            11 AM        Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.01         0.01         1.03
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI/Haines           3                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    4300                      4700
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   1300                      1700
Transport wnd (mph)   W  7                      S 37
Vent Rate (mph-ft)    30100                     173900
Dispersion            6 Very poor               53 Gen good
Max LVORI             7                         4
33ft wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   S 18 G37
33ft wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      S  6 G16     S 18 G37

Remarks...None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers or snow showers or light freezing rain.
Lows in the 20s to lower 30s. West winds 5 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs in the
lower 20s to mid 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Colder. Lows 11 to 17. North winds
5 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the 30s. South winds up to
10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or light freezing rain.
Not as cool. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 40s. South winds
5 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Rain or light freezing rain likely. Lows in the
lower 30s. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. West winds 5 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of rain or light freezing rain
or light sleet. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the lower 30s to
mid 40s. West winds up to 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ087-102-190845-
Southern Cherokee National Forest-
242 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

                      Today        Tonight      Sat

Cloud cover           MCldy        MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      47-52 (+8)   40-45 (+4)   55-60
RH % (24h trend)      74-79 (+2)   92-97 (-5)   72-77
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   S 13 G33
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S 12 G33
Precip type           None         Showers      Tstms
Chance precip (%)     0            0            80
Precip duration                                 5
Precip begin                                    Continuing
Precip end                                      Continuing
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         1.18
LAL                   1            1            2
LASI/Haines           3                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    3100                      4000
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   1000                      2000
Transport wnd (mph)   W  3                      S 33
Vent Rate (mph-ft)    9300                      132000
Dispersion            3 Very poor               56 Gen good
Max LVORI             9                         4
33ft wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   S 16 G33
33ft wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      SE  5        S 15 G33

Remarks...None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers or snow showers. Lows in the 20s to
lower 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs in the
lower 20s to mid 30s. North winds 5 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Colder. Lows 13 to 18. North winds
up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Southeast winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or slight chance of
light freezing rain. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the 40s.
South winds 5 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Rain or light freezing rain likely. Lows in the
lower 30s. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. West winds 5 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or light freezing rain.
Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the 30s to mid 40s. Northwest
winds up to 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

NCZ060-061-190845-
Nantahala National Forest-
242 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

                      Today        Tonight      Sat

Cloud cover           MCldy        MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      45-50 (+6)   39-44 (+4)   54-59
RH % (24h trend)      75-80 (+3)   93-98 (-4)   72-77
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   S  9 G24
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  9 G24
Precip type           None         Showers      Tstms
Chance precip (%)     0            30           80
Precip duration                    1            5
Precip begin                       1 AM         Continuing
Precip end                         Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.00         0.01         1.05
LAL                   1            1            2
LASI/Haines           3                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    3900                      4500
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   1700                      2200
Transport wnd (mph)   W  5                      S 29
Vent Rate (mph-ft)    19500                     130500
Dispersion            6 Very poor               52 Gen good
Max LVORI             8                         4
33ft wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   S 11 G24
33ft wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S 12 G24

Remarks...None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers or light freezing rain. Lows in the mid
20s to lower 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Slight chance of snow showers. Highs in
the mid 20s to upper 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Colder. Lows 13 to 18. North winds
5 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Southeast winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or slight chance of
light freezing rain. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 40s. South
winds 5 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Rain or light freezing rain likely. Lows in the
lower 30s. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. West winds 5 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of rain or light freezing rain.
Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the 30s to mid 40s. Northwest
winds up to 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-190845-
East Tennessee District East-
242 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

                      Today        Tonight      Sat

Cloud cover           MCldy        MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      44-49 (+6)   36-41 (+1)   54-59
RH % (24h trend)      75-80 (+1)   93-98 (-4)   65-70
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   SE  7 G21
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  9 G21
Precip type           None         None         Showers
Chance precip (%)     20           0            80
Precip duration       1                         3
Precip begin          7 AM                      Continuing
Precip end            10 AM                     Continuing
Precip amount         0.01         0.00         0.73
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI/Haines           3                         2
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    2900                      3300
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   1400                      1800
Transport wnd (mph)   W  6                      S 24
Vent Rate (mph-ft)    17400                     79200
Dispersion            8 Poor                    38 Fair
Max LVORI             7                         4
33ft wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   SE  9 G21
33ft wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S 11 G21

Remarks...None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers. Lows in the 20s to lower 30s. West
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs in the 20s
to mid 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Colder. Lows 8 to 16. North winds
up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the 20s to mid 30s. Southeast
winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or slight chance of
light freezing rain. Not as cool. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in
the 40s to lower 50s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Rain likely. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the 40s
to mid 50s. West winds up to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or snow. Colder. Lows
in the upper 20s. Highs in the 30s to mid 40s. West winds less
than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-190845-
East Tennessee District West-
242 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

                      Today        Tonight      Sat

Cloud cover           MCldy        MCldy        Cloudy
Temp (24h trend)      45-50 (+6)   39-44 (+3)   56-61
RH % (24h trend)      75-80 (-3)   95-100 (-3)  70-75
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   S  8 G22
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  9 G21
Precip type           None         Showers      Tstms
Chance precip (%)     0            0            80
Precip duration                                 8
Precip begin                                    Continuing
Precip end                                      Continuing
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         1.12
LAL                   1            1            2
LASI/Haines           3                         2
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    2400                      3100
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   1100                      1800
Transport wnd (mph)   W  2                      S 28
Vent Rate (mph-ft)    4800                      86800
Dispersion            2 Very poor               44 Gen good
Max LVORI             9                         4
33ft wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   S 10 G22
33ft wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S 11 G21

Remarks...None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers or snow showers likely. Lows in the 20s
to lower 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs in the
lower 20s to mid 30s. North winds 5 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Colder. Lows 8 to 18. North winds
up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the 20s to upper 30s. Southeast
winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Rain likely or slight chance of light freezing rain.
Not as cool. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the 40s to lower
50s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Rain or snow likely. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in
the 40s to lower 50s. West winds up to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or snow. Lows in the
upper 20s. Highs in the mid 30s to upper 40s. West winds less
than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ077-079>085-097>101-190845-
Cumberland District South-
242 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019 /142 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019/

                      Today        Tonight      Sat

Cloud cover           MCldy        MCldy        Cloudy
Temp (24h trend)      47-52 (+8)   42-47 (+5)   57-62
RH % (24h trend)      76-81 (-4)   95-100 (-2)  72-77
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   S 10 G26
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SW 10 G26
Precip type           None         Showers      Tstms
Chance precip (%)     0            50           90
Precip duration                    1            8
Precip begin                       12 AM        Continuing
Precip end                         Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.00         0.03         1.39
LAL                   1            1            2
LASI/Haines           3                         2
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    2000                      3000
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   800                       1800
Transport wnd (mph)   SW  1                     S 30
Vent Rate (mph-ft)    2000                      90000
Dispersion            1 Very poor               47 Gen good
Max LVORI             9                         4
33ft wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   S 12 G26
33ft wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SW 12 G26

Remarks...None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers or snow showers likely. Lows in the 20s
to lower 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the 20s to upper 30s. North
winds 5 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Colder. Lows 12 to 22. North winds
up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the 30s to lower 40s. Southeast
winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Rain likely or chance of light freezing rain. Lows in
the upper 30s. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. South winds 5 to
15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Rain or light freezing rain likely. Lows in the
lower 30s. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. Northwest winds up to
10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain. Lows in the
upper 20s. Highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Northwest winds
less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

Digital Tabular Forecast
Hourly Forecast

Minimum Potential Accumulation

Expect at least this much. This is what we see as the least amount of snow the storm can produce.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.
 

Most Likely Snow Accumulation

Represents our official snow forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The snowfall amounts are provided in point (single number) and ranges (1-2", 2-4", etc.). You can toggle between the two by hovering over the "Point" and "Range" text above the image. The point amount is our forecast but the range for the "most likely" represents the forecast uncertainty in predefined ranges.

Maximum Potential Accumulation

What you should be prepared for. This is what we see as the storm's maximum potential snowfall accumulation.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.

 

Short to Long-Range Forecast
 
Day 1 Forecast Precipitation Day 2 Forecast Precipitation
Days 1-2 Precip Days 1-3 Precip
   
Day 3 Forecast Precipitation Days 1-3 Forecast Precipitation
Days 4-5 Precip Days 6-7 Precip
   

Days 6-10

Temperature  Precipitation
6-10 day temperature 6-10 day precipitation
   

Days 8-14

TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
8-14 day temperature 8-14 day precipitation

 

Products
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST DISCUSSION SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

 

 

  Additional Forecasts and Outlooks

  Fire Weather Outlook Issued by the Storm Prediction Center

  National Fire Weather Page

  Forecast Fire Danger Rating

  Drought Monitor

 

  Fire Weather Observations and Data

  Local RAWS Sites Information                                             Observed Fire Danger Rating                                 Observed 10-hour Fuel Moisture

  Current Local Observations                                                  Palmer Drought Index Map of the U.S.                   Observed 100-hour Fuel Moisture                    

  Wildland Fire Assessment System                                       Haines Index Map of the U.S.                                 Observed 1000-hour Fuel Moisture

  MADIS Meteorological Surface Observation Viewer            Keetch-Byram Drought Index Map of the U.S.

 

  Fire Weather Planning Tools                                             Fire Weather Annual Operating Plans                 Weather Normals and Records

 Graphical Planning Forecast Specific Point                          Tennessee                                                               Chattanooga

 Weather Activity Planner Specific Point                                 Virginia                                                                    Knoxville

 Point Forecast Matrices  Specific Point                                 North Carolina                                                         Oak Ridge

 Southern Area Coordination Center                                                                                                                      Tri-Cities

 Tennessee Fire Prevention 

 Fire Weather Awareness Week