National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
Please see this Service Change Notification on how Fire Weather boundaries, zone names and numbers will change on March 5th, 2019.
 
 
These products and outlook graphics can be used to support the fire weather program across east Tennessee, southwest Virginia, and southwest North Carolina. For more information, please call the NWS Morristown, Tennessee.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

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806
FNUS54 KMRX 152023
FWFMRX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for East Tennessee...Southwest
Virginia...and Extreme Southwest North Carolina
National Weather Service Morristown TN
323 PM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

.DISCUSSION...
A series of weather systems will move across the Southern Appalachian
Region and provide a wet and active weather pattern for this weekend
and into the upcoming work week. The first system will bring rain
showers into the area this evening through the overnight hours tonight.
The next system will move through Saturday night into Sunday.  Then...a
third system will push in Monday night and continue to affect area
weather through Wednesday. Overall...expect periods of moderate to
heavy rainfall with the potential for localized flooding.

VAZ001-002-005-006-008-162130-
Jefferson National Forest/Virginia District 6-
323 PM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

                      Tonight      Sat          Sat Night    Sun

Cloud cover           Cloudy       MCldy        PCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      32-37 (-9)   40-45 (-12)  28-33        48-53
RH % (24h trend)      91-96 (+28)  61-66 (+22)  95-100       70-75
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  NE  8 G22                 SE  9 G25
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     N  5         NE  5        LGT/VAR      SW  7 G20
Precip type           Rain         Rain         Rain         Rain
Chance precip (%)     100          70           0            50
Precip duration       8            1                         2
Precip begin          7 PM         Continuing                Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   1 PM                      Continuing
Precip amount         0.35         0.04         0.00         0.23
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        2                         2
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 3800                      2600
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                1800                      500
Transport wnd (mph)                NE 13                     SW 12
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 49400                     31200
Dispersion                         18 Gen poor               4 Very poor
Max LVORI                          5                         5
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  NE  9 G22                 SE 12 G25
33ft wind-PM(mph)     N  7         NE  7        E  6         SW  9 G20

Remarks...None.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the mid
30s to lower 40s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 50s.
Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain. Lows in the
upper 20s to mid 30s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Rain. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. Southeast winds
up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Rain. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper 40s
to mid 50s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows around 40. Highs in the
40s to upper 50s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in
the 50s. Southeast winds up to 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-162130-
Northern Cherokee National Forest-
323 PM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

                      Tonight      Sat          Sat Night    Sun

Cloud cover           Cloudy       MCldy        PCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      37-42 (-2)   41-46 (-10)  29-34        49-54
RH % (24h trend)      95-100 (+40) 68-73 (+33)  95-100       66-71
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  LGT/VAR                   SE 13 G32
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SE  6 G21    SW  9 G26
Precip type           Rain         Rain         Rain         Rain
Chance precip (%)     100          80           0            60
Precip duration       7            2                         3
Precip begin          7 PM         Continuing                Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   1 PM                      Continuing
Precip amount         0.51         0.05         0.00         0.18
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        3                         2
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 4500                      2900
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                1700                      200
Transport wnd (mph)                NE  6                     SW 15
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 27000                     43500
Dispersion                         9 Poor                    1 Very poor
Max LVORI                          7                         5
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  NE  5                     SE 16 G32
33ft wind-PM(mph)     N  6         LGT/VAR      SE  8 G21    SW 11 G26

Remarks...None.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Slight chance of rain. Highs in the 40s
to lower 50s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain. Lows in the
30s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph shifting to the east after
midnight.
.TUESDAY...Rain. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. Southeast winds
up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Rain. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the 40s to
upper 50s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs
in the 50s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in
the upper 40s to lower 60s. South winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ072-074-162130-
Tennessee Portion Of The Great Smoky Mountain National Park-
323 PM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

                      Tonight      Sat          Sat Night    Sun

Cloud cover           Cloudy       MCldy        PCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      39-44 (-1)   45-50 (-5)   34-39        51-56
RH % (24h trend)      95-100 (+32) 65-70 (+12)  95-100       73-78
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  N  5 G17                  S 16 G39
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SE  5 G20    SW 13 G33
Precip type           Rain         Rain         Rain         Rain
Chance precip (%)     100          40           0            70
Precip duration       8            1                         3
Precip begin          7 PM         Continuing                Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   1 PM                      Continuing
Precip amount         0.75         0.01         0.00         0.27
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        2                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 4400                      3100
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                1400                      100
Transport wnd (mph)                N  8                      SW 24
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 35200                     74400
Dispersion                         9 Poor                    1 Very poor
Max LVORI                          6                         7
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  N  7 G17                  S 20 G39
33ft wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      NE  5        SE  6 G20    SW 16 G33

Remarks...None.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Slight chance of rain. Highs in the 40s
to lower 50s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the 30s to
lower 40s. North winds less than 10 mph shifting to the east
after midnight.
.TUESDAY...Rain. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. Southeast winds
5 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Rain. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the 50s.
Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY...Rain likely. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the 40s to
upper 50s. East winds up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Rain likely. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the 50s to
lower 60s. South winds up to 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ087-102-162130-
Southern Cherokee National Forest-
323 PM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

                      Tonight      Sat          Sat Night    Sun

Cloud cover           Cloudy       PCldy        PCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      42-47 (-1)   49-54 (-5)   36-41        54-59
RH % (24h trend)      95-100 (+32) 63-68 (+9)   95-100       73-78
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  N  5 G16                  SE 13 G30
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      N  5         LGT/VAR      S  8 G24
Precip type           Rain         Rain         Rain         Rain
Chance precip (%)     100          20           40           60
Precip duration       8            1            1            3
Precip begin          7 PM         Continuing   1 AM         Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   1 PM         Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.89         0.01         0.03         0.39
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        2                         2
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 3800                      2100
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                1700                      100
Transport wnd (mph)                N  9                      S 17
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 34200                     35700
Dispersion                         14 Gen poor               1 Very poor
Max LVORI                          5                         7
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  N  7 G16                  SE 16 G30
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SE  5        N  6         LGT/VAR      S 11 G24

Remarks...None.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Southwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north after
midnight.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Slight chance of rain. Highs in the 40s
to mid 50s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Lows around 40. East winds less than
10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Rain. Highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Southeast
winds 5 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Rain. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 50s to
lower 60s. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY...Rain likely. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the 50s to
lower 60s. East winds up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Rain likely. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid
50s to lower 60s. Southeast winds up to 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

NCZ060-061-162130-
Nantahala National Forest-
323 PM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

                      Tonight      Sat          Sat Night    Sun

Cloud cover           Cloudy       PCldy        PCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      43-48 (+3)   51-56 (-4)   37-42        52-57
RH % (24h trend)      95-100 (+27) 64-69 (+5)   95-100       70-75
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  LGT/VAR                   SE  9 G24
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  5         S  6 G20
Precip type           Rain         Rain         Rain         Rain
Chance precip (%)     100          30           40           70
Precip duration       8            1            1            3
Precip begin          7 PM         Continuing   1 AM         Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   1 PM         Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.98         0.01         0.02         0.43
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        3                         2
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 4200                      2300
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                1900                      100
Transport wnd (mph)                NW  7                     S 13
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 29400                     29900
Dispersion                         11 Poor                   0 Very poor
Max LVORI                          6                         6
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  NW  6 G16                 SE 12 G24
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SE  5        W  5         S  6         S  8 G20

Remarks...None.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
West winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest after midnight.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Slight chance of rain. Highs in the 40s
to mid 50s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Lows in the upper 30s. East winds
less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Rain. Highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Southeast
winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Rain. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the 50s to
lower 60s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Rain likely. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid
50s to lower 60s. East winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Rain likely. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 50s
to lower 60s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-162130-
East Tennessee District East-
323 PM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

                      Tonight      Sat          Sat Night    Sun

Cloud cover           Cloudy       MCldy        PCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      37-42 (-5)   43-48 (-12)  30-35        52-57
RH % (24h trend)      93-98 (+31)  65-70 (+22)  95-100       70-75
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  N  6 G21                  SE  9 G25
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     N  5 G16     NE  5        LGT/VAR      SW  6 G17
Precip type           Rain         Rain         Rain         Rain
Chance precip (%)     100          60           0            60
Precip duration       8            1                         3
Precip begin          7 PM         Continuing                Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   1 PM                      Continuing
Precip amount         0.49         0.02         0.00         0.23
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        2                         2
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 3500                      2400
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                2000                      900
Transport wnd (mph)                N 10                      SW 10
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 35000                     24000
Dispersion                         17 Gen poor               8 Poor
Max LVORI                          5                         5
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  N  8 G21                  SE 11 G25
33ft wind-PM(mph)     N  7 G16     NE  6        NE  6        SW  8 G17

Remarks...None.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows near 40.
Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Slight chance of rain. Highs in the 40s
to lower 50s. West winds up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain. Lows in the
30s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Rain. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. East winds up to
10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Rain. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the 50s. South
winds up to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs
in the 50s to lower 60s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in
the 50s to lower 60s. East winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-162130-
East Tennessee District West-
323 PM EST Fri Feb 15 2019

                      Tonight      Sat          Sat Night    Sun

Cloud cover           Cloudy       MCldy        MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      35-40 (-11)  43-48 (-11)  34-39        53-58
RH % (24h trend)      90-95 (+24)  65-70 (+22)  95-100       73-78
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  NE  7 G19                 S  7 G21
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     NE  6 G15    NE  6        LGT/VAR      SW  8 G20
Precip type           Rain         Rain         Rain         Rain
Chance precip (%)     100          30           40           70
Precip duration       8            1            1            2
Precip begin          7 PM         Continuing   1 AM         Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   1 PM         Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.60         0.01         0.01         0.23
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        2                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 3100                      1900
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                1800                      700
Transport wnd (mph)                NE 10                     SW 14
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 31000                     26600
Dispersion                         17 Gen poor               7 Poor
Max LVORI                          5                         5
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  NE  9 G19                 S 10 G21
33ft wind-PM(mph)     NE  7 G15    NE  7        NE  5        SW 10 G20

Remarks...None.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the 30s to
mid 40s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Slight chance of rain. Highs in the lower
40s to mid 50s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain. Lows in the
30s to lower 40s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Rain. Highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s. East winds
less than 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Rain likely. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the 50s
to lower 60s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs
in the 50s to lower 60s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Rain likely. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the 50s to
lower 60s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ077-079>085-097>101-162130-
Cumberland District South-
323 PM EST Fri Feb 15 2019 /223 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019/

                      Tonight      Sat          Sat Night    Sun

Cloud cover           Cloudy       MCldy        MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      38-43 (-9)   47-52 (-8)   37-42        56-61
RH % (24h trend)      95-100 (+33) 65-70 (+26)  95-100       71-76
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  NE  7 G19                 S  9 G24
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      NE  5 G15    LGT/VAR      SW  7 G19
Precip type           Rain         None         Rain         Rain
Chance precip (%)     100          0            50           70
Precip duration       8                         1            3
Precip begin          7 PM                      10 PM        Continuing
Precip end            Continuing                Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.76         0.00         0.05         0.31
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        2                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 3000                      1600
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                1800                      400
Transport wnd (mph)                NE 12                     SW 13
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 36000                     20800
Dispersion                         17 Gen poor               4 Very poor
Max LVORI                          4                         6
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  NE  9 G19                 S 12 G24
33ft wind-PM(mph)     E  5         NE  7 G15    E  5         SW  9 G19

Remarks...None.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Lows in the 30s to mid 40s.
Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Slight chance of rain. Highs in the 40s
to mid 50s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Northeast winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Rain. Highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Southeast
winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Rain. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 50s to
lower 60s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Rain likely. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the 50s to
lower 60s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Rain likely. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid
50s to lower 60s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TD/RG


Digital Tabular Forecast
Hourly Forecast

Minimum Potential Accumulation

Expect at least this much. This is what we see as the least amount of snow the storm can produce.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.
 

Most Likely Snow Accumulation

Represents our official snow forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The snowfall amounts are provided in point (single number) and ranges (1-2", 2-4", etc.). You can toggle between the two by hovering over the "Point" and "Range" text above the image. The point amount is our forecast but the range for the "most likely" represents the forecast uncertainty in predefined ranges.

Maximum Potential Accumulation

What you should be prepared for. This is what we see as the storm's maximum potential snowfall accumulation.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.

 

Short to Long-Range Forecast
 
Day 1 Forecast Precipitation Day 2 Forecast Precipitation
Days 1-2 Precip Days 1-3 Precip
   
Day 3 Forecast Precipitation Days 1-3 Forecast Precipitation
Days 4-5 Precip Days 6-7 Precip
   

Days 6-10

Temperature  Precipitation
6-10 day temperature 6-10 day precipitation
   

Days 8-14

TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
8-14 day temperature 8-14 day precipitation

 

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