Fire Weather Program at WFO Morristown, TN

These products and outlook graphics can be used to support the fire weather program across east Tennessee, southwest Virginia, and southwest North Carolina. For more information, please call the NWS Morristown, Tennessee.

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	000 FNUS54 KMRX 180742 FWFMRX Fire Weather Planning Forecast for East Tennessee...Southwest Virginia...and Extreme Southwest North Carolina National Weather Service Morristown TN 242 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019 .DISCUSSION... The Southern Appalachian Region will remain in a rather active weather pattern through the weekend. A brief break in the precipitation is forecast today with widespread cloud cover continuing. A strong storm system will move in on Saturday with widespread rain and possibly a few thunderstorms. Much colder air will move in behind the departing front on Sunday into Monday. VAZ001-002-005-006-008-190845- Jefferson National Forest/Virginia District 6- 242 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019 Today Tonight Sat Cloud cover MCldy MCldy MCldy Temp (24h trend) 41-46 (+6) 34-39 (+1) 51-56 RH % (24h trend) 75-80 (-2) 94-99 (-3) 69-74 20ft Wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR SE 8 G25 20ft Wind-PM(mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR S 9 G25 Precip type Showers None Showers Chance precip (%) 20 0 80 Precip duration 1 5 Precip begin 7 AM Continuing Precip end 10 AM Continuing Precip amount 0.01 0.00 0.82 LAL 1 1 1 LASI/Haines 3 2 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 3700 4100 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)* 1700 2100 Transport wnd (mph) W 7 S 29 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 25900 118900 Dispersion 9 Poor 51 Gen good Max LVORI 7 4 33ft wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR SE 10 G25 33ft wind-PM(mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR S 12 G25 Remarks...None. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers or snow showers. Lows in the upper teens to lower 30s. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph shifting to the northwest after midnight. .SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs in the 20s to lower 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Much colder. Lows 3 to 13. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. .MONDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the 20s to lower 30s. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or slight chance of light freezing rain. Not as cool. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 40s. South winds up to 10 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Rain or snow likely. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. West winds up to 10 mph. .THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or snow. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the 30s to lower 40s. West winds up to 10 mph. The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$ TNZ018-041-043-045-047-190845- Northern Cherokee National Forest- 242 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019 Today Tonight Sat Cloud cover MCldy MCldy MCldy Temp (24h trend) 40-45 (+4) 35-40 (+3) 50-55 RH % (24h trend) 79-84 (+7) 93-98 (-4) 66-71 20ft Wind-AM(mph) W 5 S 11 G28 20ft Wind-PM(mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR S 11 G27 Precip type Showers Showers Showers Chance precip (%) 40 20 70 Precip duration 1 1 3 Precip begin 7 AM 1 AM Continuing Precip end 12 PM Continuing Continuing Precip amount 0.02 0.01 0.53 LAL 1 1 1 LASI/Haines 3 2 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 4300 4500 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL) 1500 1800 Transport wnd (mph) W 10 S 30 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 43000 135000 Dispersion 12 Poor 45 Gen good Max LVORI 6 4 33ft wind-AM(mph) W 6 S 13 G28 33ft wind-PM(mph) LGT/VAR S 5 S 14 G27 Remarks...None. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers or light freezing rain. Lows in the 20s to lower 30s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the west 5 to 15 mph after midnight. .SUNDAY...Snow showers likely. Highs in the lower 20s to mid 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Colder. Lows 6 to 15. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .MONDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the 20s to mid 30s. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or light freezing rain. Not as cool. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 50s. South winds up to 10 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Rain or light freezing rain likely. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the lower 40s to mid 50s. West winds up to 10 mph. .THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or light freezing rain or light sleet. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the lower 30s to mid 40s. West winds up to 10 mph. The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$ TNZ072-074-190845- Tennessee Portion Of The Great Smoky Mountain National Park- 242 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019 Today Tonight Sat Cloud cover MCldy MCldy MCldy Temp (24h trend) 42-47 (+4) 37-42 (+3) 52-57 RH % (24h trend) 74-79 (+9) 90-95 (-7) 65-70 20ft Wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR S 14 G37 20ft Wind-PM(mph) LGT/VAR S 5 G16 S 14 G37 Precip type Showers Showers Showers Chance precip (%) 20 30 80 Precip duration 1 1 5 Precip begin 7 AM 12 AM Continuing Precip end 11 AM Continuing Continuing Precip amount 0.01 0.01 1.03 LAL 1 1 1 LASI/Haines 3 3 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 4300 4700 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL) 1300 1700 Transport wnd (mph) W 7 S 37 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 30100 173900 Dispersion 6 Very poor 53 Gen good Max LVORI 7 4 33ft wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR S 18 G37 33ft wind-PM(mph) LGT/VAR S 6 G16 S 18 G37 Remarks...None. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers or snow showers or light freezing rain. Lows in the 20s to lower 30s. West winds 5 to 15 mph. .SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs in the lower 20s to mid 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Colder. Lows 11 to 17. North winds 5 to 15 mph. .MONDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the 30s. South winds up to 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or light freezing rain. Not as cool. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 40s. South winds 5 to 15 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Rain or light freezing rain likely. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. West winds 5 to 15 mph. .THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of rain or light freezing rain or light sleet. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the lower 30s to mid 40s. West winds up to 10 mph. The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$ TNZ087-102-190845- Southern Cherokee National Forest- 242 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019 Today Tonight Sat Cloud cover MCldy MCldy MCldy Temp (24h trend) 47-52 (+8) 40-45 (+4) 55-60 RH % (24h trend) 74-79 (+2) 92-97 (-5) 72-77 20ft Wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR S 13 G33 20ft Wind-PM(mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR S 12 G33 Precip type None Showers Tstms Chance precip (%) 0 0 80 Precip duration 5 Precip begin Continuing Precip end Continuing Precip amount 0.00 0.00 1.18 LAL 1 1 2 LASI/Haines 3 3 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 3100 4000 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL) 1000 2000 Transport wnd (mph) W 3 S 33 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 9300 132000 Dispersion 3 Very poor 56 Gen good Max LVORI 9 4 33ft wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR S 16 G33 33ft wind-PM(mph) LGT/VAR SE 5 S 15 G33 Remarks...None. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers or snow showers. Lows in the 20s to lower 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs in the lower 20s to mid 30s. North winds 5 to 15 mph. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Colder. Lows 13 to 18. North winds up to 10 mph. .MONDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or slight chance of light freezing rain. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the 40s. South winds 5 to 15 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Rain or light freezing rain likely. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. West winds 5 to 15 mph. .THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or light freezing rain. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the 30s to mid 40s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$ NCZ060-061-190845- Nantahala National Forest- 242 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019 Today Tonight Sat Cloud cover MCldy MCldy MCldy Temp (24h trend) 45-50 (+6) 39-44 (+4) 54-59 RH % (24h trend) 75-80 (+3) 93-98 (-4) 72-77 20ft Wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR S 9 G24 20ft Wind-PM(mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR S 9 G24 Precip type None Showers Tstms Chance precip (%) 0 30 80 Precip duration 1 5 Precip begin 1 AM Continuing Precip end Continuing Continuing Precip amount 0.00 0.01 1.05 LAL 1 1 2 LASI/Haines 3 3 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 3900 4500 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL) 1700 2200 Transport wnd (mph) W 5 S 29 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 19500 130500 Dispersion 6 Very poor 52 Gen good Max LVORI 8 4 33ft wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR S 11 G24 33ft wind-PM(mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR S 12 G24 Remarks...None. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers or light freezing rain. Lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Slight chance of snow showers. Highs in the mid 20s to upper 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Colder. Lows 13 to 18. North winds 5 to 15 mph. .MONDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or slight chance of light freezing rain. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 40s. South winds 5 to 15 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Rain or light freezing rain likely. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. West winds 5 to 15 mph. .THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of rain or light freezing rain. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the 30s to mid 40s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$ TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-190845- East Tennessee District East- 242 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019 Today Tonight Sat Cloud cover MCldy MCldy MCldy Temp (24h trend) 44-49 (+6) 36-41 (+1) 54-59 RH % (24h trend) 75-80 (+1) 93-98 (-4) 65-70 20ft Wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR SE 7 G21 20ft Wind-PM(mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR S 9 G21 Precip type None None Showers Chance precip (%) 20 0 80 Precip duration 1 3 Precip begin 7 AM Continuing Precip end 10 AM Continuing Precip amount 0.01 0.00 0.73 LAL 1 1 1 LASI/Haines 3 2 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 2900 3300 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL) 1400 1800 Transport wnd (mph) W 6 S 24 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 17400 79200 Dispersion 8 Poor 38 Fair Max LVORI 7 4 33ft wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR SE 9 G21 33ft wind-PM(mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR S 11 G21 Remarks...None. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers. Lows in the 20s to lower 30s. West winds 5 to 10 mph. .SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs in the 20s to mid 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Colder. Lows 8 to 16. North winds up to 10 mph. .MONDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the 20s to mid 30s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or slight chance of light freezing rain. Not as cool. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. South winds up to 10 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Rain likely. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the 40s to mid 50s. West winds up to 10 mph. .THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or snow. Colder. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the 30s to mid 40s. West winds less than 10 mph. The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$ TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-190845- East Tennessee District West- 242 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019 Today Tonight Sat Cloud cover MCldy MCldy Cloudy Temp (24h trend) 45-50 (+6) 39-44 (+3) 56-61 RH % (24h trend) 75-80 (-3) 95-100 (-3) 70-75 20ft Wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR S 8 G22 20ft Wind-PM(mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR S 9 G21 Precip type None Showers Tstms Chance precip (%) 0 0 80 Precip duration 8 Precip begin Continuing Precip end Continuing Precip amount 0.00 0.00 1.12 LAL 1 1 2 LASI/Haines 3 2 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 2400 3100 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL) 1100 1800 Transport wnd (mph) W 2 S 28 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 4800 86800 Dispersion 2 Very poor 44 Gen good Max LVORI 9 4 33ft wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR S 10 G22 33ft wind-PM(mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR S 11 G21 Remarks...None. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers or snow showers likely. Lows in the 20s to lower 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs in the lower 20s to mid 30s. North winds 5 to 15 mph. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Colder. Lows 8 to 18. North winds up to 10 mph. .MONDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the 20s to upper 30s. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Rain likely or slight chance of light freezing rain. Not as cool. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. South winds up to 10 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Rain or snow likely. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. West winds up to 10 mph. .THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or snow. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the mid 30s to upper 40s. West winds less than 10 mph. The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$ TNZ077-079>085-097>101-190845- Cumberland District South- 242 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019 /142 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019/ Today Tonight Sat Cloud cover MCldy MCldy Cloudy Temp (24h trend) 47-52 (+8) 42-47 (+5) 57-62 RH % (24h trend) 76-81 (-4) 95-100 (-2) 72-77 20ft Wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR S 10 G26 20ft Wind-PM(mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR SW 10 G26 Precip type None Showers Tstms Chance precip (%) 0 50 90 Precip duration 1 8 Precip begin 12 AM Continuing Precip end Continuing Continuing Precip amount 0.00 0.03 1.39 LAL 1 1 2 LASI/Haines 3 2 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 2000 3000 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL) 800 1800 Transport wnd (mph) SW 1 S 30 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 2000 90000 Dispersion 1 Very poor 47 Gen good Max LVORI 9 4 33ft wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR S 12 G26 33ft wind-PM(mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR SW 12 G26 Remarks...None. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers or snow showers likely. Lows in the 20s to lower 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the 20s to upper 30s. North winds 5 to 15 mph. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Colder. Lows 12 to 22. North winds up to 10 mph. .MONDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the 30s to lower 40s. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Rain likely or chance of light freezing rain. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. South winds 5 to 15 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Rain or light freezing rain likely. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. .THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph. *The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$
Digital Tabular Forecast

Minimum Potential Accumulation Expect at least this much. This is what we see as the least amount of snow the storm can produce. This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount. Most Likely Snow Accumulation Represents our official snow forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The snowfall amounts are provided in point (single number) and ranges (1-2", 2-4", etc.). You can toggle between the two by hovering over the "Point" and "Range" text above the image. The point amount is our forecast but the range for the "most likely" represents the forecast uncertainty in predefined ranges. Maximum Potential Accumulation What you should be prepared for. This is what we see as the storm's maximum potential snowfall accumulation. This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.

Short to Long-Range Forecast

Day 1 Forecast Precipitation	Day 2 Forecast Precipitation


Day 3 Forecast Precipitation	Days 1-3 Forecast Precipitation


Days 6-10
Temperature	Precipitation


Days 8-14
TEMPERATURE	PRECIPITATION