Fire Weather Program at WFO Morristown, TN

These products and outlook graphics can be used to support the fire weather program across east Tennessee, southwest Virginia, and southwest North Carolina. For more information, please call the NWS Morristown, Tennessee.

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	367 FNUS54 KMRX 230807 FWFMRX Fire Weather Planning Forecast for East Tennessee...Southwest Virginia...and Extreme Southwest North Carolina National Weather Service Morristown TN 407 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018 .DISCUSSION... The Southern Appalachian Region will be in a normal summer like weather pattern through Thursday with afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible...mainly over the higher elevations. The next chance of more widespread convection will be on Friday as the next weather system approaches the area. VAZ001-002-005-006-008-240915- Jefferson National Forest/Virginia District 6- 407 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018 Today Tonight Thu Cloud cover PCldy PCldy PCldy Temp (24h trend) 76-81 (0) 55-60 (-5) 77-82 RH % (24h trend) 56-61 (0) 93-98 (-3) 48-53 20ft Wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR E 5 20ft Wind-PM(mph) N 6 N 5 SE 5 Precip type Tstms None Tstms Chance precip (%) 20 0 20 Precip duration 1 1 Precip begin 8 AM 2 PM Precip end 5 PM 8 PM Precip amount 0.04 0.00 0.01 LAL 3 1 2 LASI/Haines 4 4 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 5400 7000 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)* 3300 4900 Transport wnd (mph) NW 13 SE 10 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 70200 70000 Dispersion 36 Fair 42 Gen good Max LVORI 4 4 33ft wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR E 6 33ft wind-PM(mph) N 8 N 6 SE 7 Remarks...None. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph. .FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the 70s to lower 80s. South winds less than 10 mph. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower to mid 60s. South winds less than 10 mph. .SATURDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the 70s to lower 80s. South winds less than 10 mph. .SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph. .MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the 70s to lower 80s. East winds less than 10 mph. The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$ TNZ018-041-043-045-047-240915- Northern Cherokee National Forest- 407 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018 Today Tonight Thu Cloud cover MCldy PCldy PCldy Temp (24h trend) 73-78 (+1) 54-59 (-4) 73-78 RH % (24h trend) 58-63 (0) 95-100 (0) 52-57 20ft Wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR SE 6 20ft Wind-PM(mph) NW 7 NE 5 SE 8 G18 Precip type Tstms Tstms Tstms Chance precip (%) 30 20 30 Precip duration 1 1 1 Precip begin 8 AM Continuing 8 AM Precip end Continuing 10 PM Continuing Precip amount 0.11 0.01 0.02 LAL 3 3 3 LASI/Haines 4 4 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 5400 7000 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL) 2700 4200 Transport wnd (mph) NW 10 SE 13 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 54000 91000 Dispersion 23 Fair 45 Gen good Max LVORI 5 4 33ft wind-AM(mph) NW 5 SE 8 33ft wind-PM(mph) NW 8 NE 7 SE 9 G18 Remarks...None. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. .FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 60s to lower 80s. South winds less than 10 mph. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. South winds less than 10 mph. .SATURDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s. South winds less than 10 mph. .SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the mid 60s to lower 80s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph. .MONDAY...Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph. The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$ TNZ072-074-240915- Tennessee Portion Of The Great Smoky Mountain National Park- 407 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018 Today Tonight Thu Cloud cover MCldy PCldy PCldy Temp (24h trend) 73-78 (+3) 57-62 (-2) 73-78 RH % (24h trend) 58-63 (-8) 92-97 (0) 56-61 20ft Wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR 20ft Wind-PM(mph) N 7 NE 5 SE 5 Precip type Tstms Tstms Tstms Chance precip (%) 30 20 40 Precip duration 1 1 1 Precip begin 8 AM Continuing 8 AM Precip end Continuing 12 AM Continuing Precip amount 0.12 0.01 0.20 LAL 3 3 3 LASI/Haines 4 3 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 5400 6100 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL) 2400 3100 Transport wnd (mph) N 10 SE 7 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 54000 42700 Dispersion 21 Fair 19 Gen poor Max LVORI 5 5 33ft wind-AM(mph) NW 6 LGT/VAR 33ft wind-PM(mph) N 8 NE 7 SE 6 Remarks...None. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 50s to mid 60s. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. .FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the 60s to lower 80s. South winds less than 10 mph. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the 50s to mid 60s. South winds less than 10 mph. .SATURDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the mid 60s to lower 80s. South winds less than 10 mph. .SUNDAY...Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the 60s to lower 80s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph. .MONDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the mid 60s to lower 80s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph. The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$ TNZ087-102-240915- Southern Cherokee National Forest- 407 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018 Today Tonight Thu Cloud cover MCldy PCldy MCldy Temp (24h trend) 77-82 (+3) 60-65 (-1) 77-82 RH % (24h trend) 55-60 (-5) 94-99 (0) 57-62 20ft Wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR 20ft Wind-PM(mph) N 7 LGT/VAR LGT/VAR Precip type Tstms Tstms Tstms Chance precip (%) 30 30 50 Precip duration 1 1 1 Precip begin 8 AM Continuing 8 AM Precip end Continuing 12 AM Continuing Precip amount 0.10 0.02 0.26 LAL 3 3 3 LASI/Haines 4 4 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 5200 5800 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL) 3200 3800 Transport wnd (mph) N 10 SE 3 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 52000 17400 Dispersion 29 Fair 10 Poor Max LVORI 4 6 33ft wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR 33ft wind-PM(mph) N 8 N 5 E 5 Remarks...None. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. .FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s. South winds up to 10 mph. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. .SATURDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph. .SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph. .MONDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph. The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$ NCZ060-061-240915- Nantahala National Forest- 407 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018 Today Tonight Thu Cloud cover MCldy PCldy PCldy Temp (24h trend) 76-81 (+3) 59-64 (-1) 76-81 RH % (24h trend) 57-62 (-7) 95-100 (+3) 58-63 20ft Wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR 20ft Wind-PM(mph) N 6 LGT/VAR SE 5 Precip type Tstms Tstms Tstms Chance precip (%) 50 40 50 Precip duration 1 1 1 Precip begin 8 AM Continuing 8 AM Precip end Continuing 12 AM Continuing Precip amount 0.20 0.01 0.19 LAL 3 3 3 LASI/Haines 4 4 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 5300 7100 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL) 3000 4800 Transport wnd (mph) N 8 SE 7 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 42400 49700 Dispersion 21 Fair 28 Fair Max LVORI 4 5 33ft wind-AM(mph) NE 5 LGT/VAR 33ft wind-PM(mph) N 7 SE 5 SE 7 Remarks...None. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower to mid 60s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph. .FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 60s to lower 80s. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph. .SATURDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph. .SUNDAY...Cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s. East winds less than 10 mph. .MONDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph. The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$ TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-240915- East Tennessee District East- 407 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018 Today Tonight Thu Cloud cover PCldy PCldy PCldy Temp (24h trend) 77-82 (-1) 57-62 (-3) 79-84 RH % (24h trend) 56-61 (+1) 91-96 (-4) 50-55 20ft Wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR 20ft Wind-PM(mph) NW 5 LGT/VAR E 5 Precip type Tstms None Tstms Chance precip (%) 20 0 20 Precip duration 1 1 Precip begin 8 AM 8 AM Precip end Continuing Continuing Precip amount 0.07 0.00 0.01 LAL 3 1 3 LASI/Haines 4 4 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 5000 6000 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL) 3500 4500 Transport wnd (mph) NW 9 E 10 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 45000 60000 Dispersion 29 Fair 40 Fair Max LVORI 4 4 33ft wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR E 5 33ft wind-PM(mph) NW 6 NE 5 E 7 Remarks...None. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. East winds less than 10 mph. .FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 70s to mid 80s. South winds less than 10 mph. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower to mid 60s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph. .SATURDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the lower 70s to mid 80s. South winds less than 10 mph. .SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph. .MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the 70s to lower 80s. East winds less than 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the lower 70s to mid 80s. East winds less than 10 mph. The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$ TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-240915- East Tennessee District West- 407 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018 Today Tonight Thu Cloud cover PCldy PCldy PCldy Temp (24h trend) 78-83 (+1) 60-65 (-1) 81-86 RH % (24h trend) 56-61 (-3) 90-95 (-5) 46-51 20ft Wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR 20ft Wind-PM(mph) N 6 LGT/VAR LGT/VAR Precip type Tstms None Tstms Chance precip (%) 20 0 20 Precip duration 1 1 Precip begin 10 AM 11 AM Precip end Continuing Continuing Precip amount 0.03 0.00 0.05 LAL 3 1 3 LASI/Haines 4 4 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 5000 5700 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL) 3800 4400 Transport wnd (mph) N 9 E 7 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 45000 39900 Dispersion 32 Fair 28 Fair Max LVORI 4 4 33ft wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR 33ft wind-PM(mph) N 7 NE 5 E 5 Remarks...None. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph. .FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the 70s to mid 80s. South winds less than 10 mph. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. South winds less than 10 mph. .SATURDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the 70s to mid 80s. South winds less than 10 mph. .SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the lower 70s to mid 80s. East winds less than 10 mph. .MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the 70s to mid 80s. East winds less than 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. East winds less than 10 mph. The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$ TNZ077-079>085-097>101-240915- Cumberland District South- 407 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018 /307 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018/ Today Tonight Thu Cloud cover PCldy PCldy PCldy Temp (24h trend) 81-86 (+3) 62-67 (-1) 81-86 RH % (24h trend) 53-58 (-1) 92-97 (0) 51-56 20ft Wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR 20ft Wind-PM(mph) N 5 LGT/VAR LGT/VAR Precip type Tstms None Tstms Chance precip (%) 30 20 40 Precip duration 1 1 1 Precip begin 10 AM Continuing 8 AM Precip end Continuing 10 PM Continuing Precip amount 0.03 0.01 0.09 LAL 3 3 3 LASI/Haines 4 4 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 5100 6000 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL) 3900 4800 Transport wnd (mph) N 9 E 6 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 45900 36000 Dispersion 32 Fair 23 Fair Max LVORI 4 4 33ft wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR 33ft wind-PM(mph) N 7 N 5 E 5 Remarks...None. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph. .FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. South winds up to 10 mph. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. South winds less than 10 mph. .SATURDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the 70s to mid 80s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph. .SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph. .MONDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the 70s to mid 80s. East winds less than 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the upper 60s. Highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. East winds less than 10 mph. *The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$
Digital Tabular Forecast

Minimum Potential Accumulation Expect at least this much. This is what we see as the least amount of snow the storm can produce. This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount. Most Likely Snow Accumulation Represents our official snow forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The snowfall amounts are provided in point (single number) and ranges (1-2", 2-4", etc.). You can toggle between the two by hovering over the "Point" and "Range" text above the image. The point amount is our forecast but the range for the "most likely" represents the forecast uncertainty in predefined ranges. Maximum Potential Accumulation What you should be prepared for. This is what we see as the storm's maximum potential snowfall accumulation. This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.

Short to Long-Range Forecast

Day 1 Forecast Precipitation	Day 2 Forecast Precipitation


Day 3 Forecast Precipitation	Days 1-3 Forecast Precipitation


Days 6-10
Temperature	Precipitation


Days 8-14
TEMPERATURE	PRECIPITATION