Fire Weather Program at WFO Morristown, TN

Please see this Service Change Notification on how Fire Weather boundaries, zone names and numbers will change on March 5th, 2019. These products and outlook graphics can be used to support the fire weather program across east Tennessee, southwest Virginia, and southwest North Carolina. For more information, please call the NWS Morristown, Tennessee.

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	806 FNUS54 KMRX 152023 FWFMRX Fire Weather Planning Forecast for East Tennessee...Southwest Virginia...and Extreme Southwest North Carolina National Weather Service Morristown TN 323 PM EST Fri Feb 15 2019 .DISCUSSION... A series of weather systems will move across the Southern Appalachian Region and provide a wet and active weather pattern for this weekend and into the upcoming work week. The first system will bring rain showers into the area this evening through the overnight hours tonight. The next system will move through Saturday night into Sunday. Then...a third system will push in Monday night and continue to affect area weather through Wednesday. Overall...expect periods of moderate to heavy rainfall with the potential for localized flooding. VAZ001-002-005-006-008-162130- Jefferson National Forest/Virginia District 6- 323 PM EST Fri Feb 15 2019 Tonight Sat Sat Night Sun Cloud cover Cloudy MCldy PCldy MCldy Temp (24h trend) 32-37 (-9) 40-45 (-12) 28-33 48-53 RH % (24h trend) 91-96 (+28) 61-66 (+22) 95-100 70-75 20ft Wind-AM(mph) NE 8 G22 SE 9 G25 20ft Wind-PM(mph) N 5 NE 5 LGT/VAR SW 7 G20 Precip type Rain Rain Rain Rain Chance precip (%) 100 70 0 50 Precip duration 8 1 2 Precip begin 7 PM Continuing Continuing Precip end Continuing 1 PM Continuing Precip amount 0.35 0.04 0.00 0.23 LAL 1 1 1 1 LASI/Haines 2 2 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 3800 2600 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)* 1800 500 Transport wnd (mph) NE 13 SW 12 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 49400 31200 Dispersion 18 Gen poor 4 Very poor Max LVORI 5 5 33ft wind-AM(mph) NE 9 G22 SE 12 G25 33ft wind-PM(mph) N 7 NE 7 E 6 SW 9 G20 Remarks...None. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 50s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. .MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain. Lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Rain. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Rain. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. South winds up to 10 mph. .THURSDAY...Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows around 40. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph. .FRIDAY...Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the 50s. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$ TNZ018-041-043-045-047-162130- Northern Cherokee National Forest- 323 PM EST Fri Feb 15 2019 Tonight Sat Sat Night Sun Cloud cover Cloudy MCldy PCldy MCldy Temp (24h trend) 37-42 (-2) 41-46 (-10) 29-34 49-54 RH % (24h trend) 95-100 (+40) 68-73 (+33) 95-100 66-71 20ft Wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR SE 13 G32 20ft Wind-PM(mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR SE 6 G21 SW 9 G26 Precip type Rain Rain Rain Rain Chance precip (%) 100 80 0 60 Precip duration 7 2 3 Precip begin 7 PM Continuing Continuing Precip end Continuing 1 PM Continuing Precip amount 0.51 0.05 0.00 0.18 LAL 1 1 1 1 LASI/Haines 3 2 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 4500 2900 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL) 1700 200 Transport wnd (mph) NE 6 SW 15 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 27000 43500 Dispersion 9 Poor 1 Very poor Max LVORI 7 5 33ft wind-AM(mph) NE 5 SE 16 G32 33ft wind-PM(mph) N 6 LGT/VAR SE 8 G21 SW 11 G26 Remarks...None. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. .MONDAY...Partly sunny. Slight chance of rain. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. .MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain. Lows in the 30s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph shifting to the east after midnight. .TUESDAY...Rain. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Rain. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s. South winds up to 10 mph. .THURSDAY...Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the 50s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph. .FRIDAY...Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper 40s to lower 60s. South winds less than 10 mph. The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$ TNZ072-074-162130- Tennessee Portion Of The Great Smoky Mountain National Park- 323 PM EST Fri Feb 15 2019 Tonight Sat Sat Night Sun Cloud cover Cloudy MCldy PCldy MCldy Temp (24h trend) 39-44 (-1) 45-50 (-5) 34-39 51-56 RH % (24h trend) 95-100 (+32) 65-70 (+12) 95-100 73-78 20ft Wind-AM(mph) N 5 G17 S 16 G39 20ft Wind-PM(mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR SE 5 G20 SW 13 G33 Precip type Rain Rain Rain Rain Chance precip (%) 100 40 0 70 Precip duration 8 1 3 Precip begin 7 PM Continuing Continuing Precip end Continuing 1 PM Continuing Precip amount 0.75 0.01 0.00 0.27 LAL 1 1 1 1 LASI/Haines 2 3 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 4400 3100 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL) 1400 100 Transport wnd (mph) N 8 SW 24 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 35200 74400 Dispersion 9 Poor 1 Very poor Max LVORI 6 7 33ft wind-AM(mph) N 7 G17 S 20 G39 33ft wind-PM(mph) LGT/VAR NE 5 SE 6 G20 SW 16 G33 Remarks...None. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .MONDAY...Partly sunny. Slight chance of rain. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. .MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the 30s to lower 40s. North winds less than 10 mph shifting to the east after midnight. .TUESDAY...Rain. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. Southeast winds 5 to 15 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Rain. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the 50s. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .THURSDAY...Rain likely. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s. East winds up to 10 mph. .FRIDAY...Rain likely. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. South winds up to 10 mph. The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$ TNZ087-102-162130- Southern Cherokee National Forest- 323 PM EST Fri Feb 15 2019 Tonight Sat Sat Night Sun Cloud cover Cloudy PCldy PCldy MCldy Temp (24h trend) 42-47 (-1) 49-54 (-5) 36-41 54-59 RH % (24h trend) 95-100 (+32) 63-68 (+9) 95-100 73-78 20ft Wind-AM(mph) N 5 G16 SE 13 G30 20ft Wind-PM(mph) LGT/VAR N 5 LGT/VAR S 8 G24 Precip type Rain Rain Rain Rain Chance precip (%) 100 20 40 60 Precip duration 8 1 1 3 Precip begin 7 PM Continuing 1 AM Continuing Precip end Continuing 1 PM Continuing Continuing Precip amount 0.89 0.01 0.03 0.39 LAL 1 1 1 1 LASI/Haines 2 2 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 3800 2100 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL) 1700 100 Transport wnd (mph) N 9 S 17 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 34200 35700 Dispersion 14 Gen poor 1 Very poor Max LVORI 5 7 33ft wind-AM(mph) N 7 G16 SE 16 G30 33ft wind-PM(mph) SE 5 N 6 LGT/VAR S 11 G24 Remarks...None. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north after midnight. .MONDAY...Partly sunny. Slight chance of rain. Highs in the 40s to mid 50s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph. .MONDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Lows around 40. East winds less than 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Rain. Highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Southeast winds 5 to 15 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Rain. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .THURSDAY...Rain likely. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. East winds up to 10 mph. .FRIDAY...Rain likely. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$ NCZ060-061-162130- Nantahala National Forest- 323 PM EST Fri Feb 15 2019 Tonight Sat Sat Night Sun Cloud cover Cloudy PCldy PCldy MCldy Temp (24h trend) 43-48 (+3) 51-56 (-4) 37-42 52-57 RH % (24h trend) 95-100 (+27) 64-69 (+5) 95-100 70-75 20ft Wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR SE 9 G24 20ft Wind-PM(mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR S 5 S 6 G20 Precip type Rain Rain Rain Rain Chance precip (%) 100 30 40 70 Precip duration 8 1 1 3 Precip begin 7 PM Continuing 1 AM Continuing Precip end Continuing 1 PM Continuing Continuing Precip amount 0.98 0.01 0.02 0.43 LAL 1 1 1 1 LASI/Haines 3 2 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 4200 2300 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL) 1900 100 Transport wnd (mph) NW 7 S 13 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 29400 29900 Dispersion 11 Poor 0 Very poor Max LVORI 6 6 33ft wind-AM(mph) NW 6 G16 SE 12 G24 33ft wind-PM(mph) SE 5 W 5 S 6 S 8 G20 Remarks...None. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. West winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest after midnight. .MONDAY...Partly sunny. Slight chance of rain. Highs in the 40s to mid 50s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. .MONDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Lows in the upper 30s. East winds less than 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Rain. Highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Rain. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. South winds up to 10 mph. .THURSDAY...Rain likely. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. East winds less than 10 mph. .FRIDAY...Rain likely. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph. The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$ TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-162130- East Tennessee District East- 323 PM EST Fri Feb 15 2019 Tonight Sat Sat Night Sun Cloud cover Cloudy MCldy PCldy MCldy Temp (24h trend) 37-42 (-5) 43-48 (-12) 30-35 52-57 RH % (24h trend) 93-98 (+31) 65-70 (+22) 95-100 70-75 20ft Wind-AM(mph) N 6 G21 SE 9 G25 20ft Wind-PM(mph) N 5 G16 NE 5 LGT/VAR SW 6 G17 Precip type Rain Rain Rain Rain Chance precip (%) 100 60 0 60 Precip duration 8 1 3 Precip begin 7 PM Continuing Continuing Precip end Continuing 1 PM Continuing Precip amount 0.49 0.02 0.00 0.23 LAL 1 1 1 1 LASI/Haines 2 2 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 3500 2400 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL) 2000 900 Transport wnd (mph) N 10 SW 10 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 35000 24000 Dispersion 17 Gen poor 8 Poor Max LVORI 5 5 33ft wind-AM(mph) N 8 G21 SE 11 G25 33ft wind-PM(mph) N 7 G16 NE 6 NE 6 SW 8 G17 Remarks...None. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows near 40. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. .MONDAY...Partly sunny. Slight chance of rain. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. West winds up to 10 mph. .MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain. Lows in the 30s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Rain. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. East winds up to 10 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Rain. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the 50s. South winds up to 10 mph. .THURSDAY...Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph. .FRIDAY...Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. East winds less than 10 mph. The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$ TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-162130- East Tennessee District West- 323 PM EST Fri Feb 15 2019 Tonight Sat Sat Night Sun Cloud cover Cloudy MCldy MCldy MCldy Temp (24h trend) 35-40 (-11) 43-48 (-11) 34-39 53-58 RH % (24h trend) 90-95 (+24) 65-70 (+22) 95-100 73-78 20ft Wind-AM(mph) NE 7 G19 S 7 G21 20ft Wind-PM(mph) NE 6 G15 NE 6 LGT/VAR SW 8 G20 Precip type Rain Rain Rain Rain Chance precip (%) 100 30 40 70 Precip duration 8 1 1 2 Precip begin 7 PM Continuing 1 AM Continuing Precip end Continuing 1 PM Continuing Continuing Precip amount 0.60 0.01 0.01 0.23 LAL 1 1 1 1 LASI/Haines 2 3 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 3100 1900 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL) 1800 700 Transport wnd (mph) NE 10 SW 14 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 31000 26600 Dispersion 17 Gen poor 7 Poor Max LVORI 5 5 33ft wind-AM(mph) NE 9 G19 S 10 G21 33ft wind-PM(mph) NE 7 G15 NE 7 NE 5 SW 10 G20 Remarks...None. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the 30s to mid 40s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. .MONDAY...Partly sunny. Slight chance of rain. Highs in the lower 40s to mid 50s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph. .MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain. Lows in the 30s to lower 40s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Rain. Highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s. East winds less than 10 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Rain likely. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph. .THURSDAY...Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph. .FRIDAY...Rain likely. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph. The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$ TNZ077-079>085-097>101-162130- Cumberland District South- 323 PM EST Fri Feb 15 2019 /223 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019/ Tonight Sat Sat Night Sun Cloud cover Cloudy MCldy MCldy MCldy Temp (24h trend) 38-43 (-9) 47-52 (-8) 37-42 56-61 RH % (24h trend) 95-100 (+33) 65-70 (+26) 95-100 71-76 20ft Wind-AM(mph) NE 7 G19 S 9 G24 20ft Wind-PM(mph) LGT/VAR NE 5 G15 LGT/VAR SW 7 G19 Precip type Rain None Rain Rain Chance precip (%) 100 0 50 70 Precip duration 8 1 3 Precip begin 7 PM 10 PM Continuing Precip end Continuing Continuing Continuing Precip amount 0.76 0.00 0.05 0.31 LAL 1 1 1 1 LASI/Haines 2 3 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 3000 1600 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL) 1800 400 Transport wnd (mph) NE 12 SW 13 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 36000 20800 Dispersion 17 Gen poor 4 Very poor Max LVORI 4 6 33ft wind-AM(mph) NE 9 G19 S 12 G24 33ft wind-PM(mph) E 5 NE 7 G15 E 5 SW 9 G19 Remarks...None. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Lows in the 30s to mid 40s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. .MONDAY...Partly sunny. Slight chance of rain. Highs in the 40s to mid 50s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph. .MONDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Rain. Highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Rain. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. .THURSDAY...Rain likely. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph. .FRIDAY...Rain likely. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph. *The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$ TD/RG
Digital Tabular Forecast

Minimum Potential Accumulation Expect at least this much. This is what we see as the least amount of snow the storm can produce. This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount. Most Likely Snow Accumulation Represents our official snow forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The snowfall amounts are provided in point (single number) and ranges (1-2", 2-4", etc.). You can toggle between the two by hovering over the "Point" and "Range" text above the image. The point amount is our forecast but the range for the "most likely" represents the forecast uncertainty in predefined ranges. Maximum Potential Accumulation What you should be prepared for. This is what we see as the storm's maximum potential snowfall accumulation. This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.

Short to Long-Range Forecast

Day 1 Forecast Precipitation	Day 2 Forecast Precipitation


Day 3 Forecast Precipitation	Days 1-3 Forecast Precipitation


Days 6-10
Temperature	Precipitation


Days 8-14
TEMPERATURE	PRECIPITATION