National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
 
These products and outlook graphics can be used to support the fire weather program across east Tennessee, southwest Virginia, and southwest North Carolina. For more information, please call the NWS Morristown, Tennessee.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Request a SPOT Forecast

 

 

 

 

 

 

                           Energy Release Component                                                                                   Haines

                                                           

 
 
 
Fire Weather Forecasts
7-Day Forecasts Current Local Radar

Hourly Forecast

 

 

Current Local Radar
     
Hourly Weather Forecast Latest Fire Weather Forecast
Hourly Forecast

 

000
FNUS54 KMRX 171857
FWFMRX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for East Tennessee...Southwest
Virginia...and Extreme Southwest North Carolina
National Weather Service Morristown TN
257 PM EDT Wed Oct 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Mostly clear skies will continue through at least the first half of
Friday before another system begins to affect the area. Widespread
rain will occur Friday night through Saturday morning before drying
out late Saturday and becoming much cooler for the second half of
the weekend.



VAZ001-002-005-006-008-182000-
Jefferson National Forest/Virginia District 6-
257 PM EDT Wed Oct 17 2018

                      Tonight      Thu          Thu Night    Fri

Cloud cover           MClear       MClear       MClear       PCldy
Temp (24h trend)      33-38 (-10)  53-58 (-7)   35-40        61-66
RH % (24h trend)      78-83 (-14)  33-38 (-11)  84-89        48-53
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     NW  7 G17    LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SW  6 G16
Precip type           None         None         None         None
Chance precip (%)     0            0            0            0
Precip duration
Precip begin
Precip end
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        4                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 4100                      4300
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                2100                      2300
Transport wnd (mph)                N  7                      SW 10
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 28700                     43000
Dispersion                         13 Gen poor               20 Gen poor
Max LVORI                          4                         3
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  NE  5                     S  5
33ft wind-PM(mph)     NW  8 G17    N  5         LGT/VAR      SW  8 G16

Remarks...None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Rain. Lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Southwest
winds less than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Highs in the 50s to
lower 60s. West winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Much colder.
Lows in the 20s to upper 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Colder. Highs in the mid 30s to lower
50s. West winds up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Warmer. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in
the upper 40s to lower 60s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the
upper 40s to lower 60s. North winds less than 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
upper 30s. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. East winds less than
10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-182000-
Northern Cherokee National Forest-
257 PM EDT Wed Oct 17 2018

                      Tonight      Thu          Thu Night    Fri

Cloud cover           MClear       MClear       MClear       PCldy
Temp (24h trend)      33-38 (-13)  53-58 (-3)   35-40        61-66
RH % (24h trend)      83-88 (-10)  31-36 (-17)  87-92        47-52
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     NW  9 G25    LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SW  5
Precip type           None         None         None         None
Chance precip (%)     0            0            0            0
Precip duration
Precip begin
Precip end
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        5                         5
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 4000                      4600
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                1300                      1800
Transport wnd (mph)                N  6                      SW  7
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 24000                     32200
Dispersion                         6 Very poor               11 Poor
Max LVORI                          4                         4
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  N  5                      LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     NW 11 G25    N  5         LGT/VAR      SW  6

Remarks...None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the upper 40s to
mid 50s. West winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Rain likely. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. West
winds 5 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Much
colder. Lows in the mid 20s to lower 40s. Northwest winds 5 to
15 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Cooler. Highs in the 30s to mid 50s.
Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Warmer. Lows around 40. Highs in the
upper 40s to lower 60s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the
upper 40s to lower 60s. North winds less than 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
upper 30s. Highs in the lower 50s to mid 60s. East winds less
than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ072-074-182000-
Tennessee Portion Of The Great Smoky Mountain National Park-
257 PM EDT Wed Oct 17 2018

                      Tonight      Thu          Thu Night    Fri

Cloud cover           MClear       MClear       MClear       PCldy
Temp (24h trend)      35-40 (-12)  55-60 (-4)   38-43        61-66
RH % (24h trend)      87-92 (-5)   30-35 (-14)  87-92        51-56
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  NE  5                     LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     N  7 G19     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SW  6
Precip type           None         None         None         None
Chance precip (%)     0            0            0            0
Precip duration
Precip begin
Precip end
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        5                         5
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 3800                      4600
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                800                       1500
Transport wnd (mph)                NE  7                     SW  9
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 26600                     41400
Dispersion                         5 Very poor               10 Poor
Max LVORI                          4                         4
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  NE  7                     SW  5
33ft wind-PM(mph)     N  8 G19     NE  5        LGT/VAR      SW  7

Remarks...None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Rain. Lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Southwest
winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Rain likely. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. West
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Much colder. Lows in the upper
20s to lower 40s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Cooler. Highs in the upper 30s to mid
50s. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper
40s to lower 60s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 40. Highs in the upper 40s
to mid 60s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 40s. Highs in the 50s to mid 60s. East winds less than
10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ087-102-182000-
Southern Cherokee National Forest-
257 PM EDT Wed Oct 17 2018

                      Tonight      Thu          Thu Night    Fri

Cloud cover           MClear       MClear       MClear       PCldy
Temp (24h trend)      38-43 (-12)  60-65 (-2)   40-45        64-69
RH % (24h trend)      85-90 (-7)   37-42 (-10)  86-91        48-53
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     N  7 G19     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      SW  5
Precip type           None         None         None         None
Chance precip (%)     0            0            0            0
Precip duration
Precip begin
Precip end
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        4                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 3100                      4200
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                1100                      2100
Transport wnd (mph)                NE  7                     S 10
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 21700                     42000
Dispersion                         7 Poor                    18 Gen poor
Max LVORI                          4                         4
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  N  6                      S  5
33ft wind-PM(mph)     N  9 G19     N  5         LGT/VAR      SW  6

Remarks...None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the lower to mid
50s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Rain likely. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Much colder. Lows in the 30s to
lower 40s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Clear. Highs in the mid 40s to upper 50s. Northeast
winds up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower
50s to mid 60s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the 50s
to 60s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
mid 40s. Highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. East winds less than
10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

NCZ060-061-182000-
Nantahala National Forest-
257 PM EDT Wed Oct 17 2018

                      Tonight      Thu          Thu Night    Fri

Cloud cover           MClear       MClear       MClear       PCldy
Temp (24h trend)      37-42 (-15)  62-67 (-4)   38-43        64-69
RH % (24h trend)      85-90 (-6)   39-44 (-1)   86-91        46-51
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     N  6 G17     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  5
Precip type           None         None         None         None
Chance precip (%)     0            0            0            0
Precip duration
Precip begin
Precip end
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        5                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 3300                      4900
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                1000                      2600
Transport wnd (mph)                N  3                      S  9
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 9900                      44100
Dispersion                         3 Very poor               20 Gen poor
Max LVORI                          4                         4
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     N  8 G17     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  6

Remarks...None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Lows in the lower to mid 50s.
Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Rain likely. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Much colder. Lows in the 30s to
lower 40s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Clear. Highs in the mid 40s to upper 50s. Northeast
winds up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower
50s to mid 60s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid
50s to upper 60s. North winds less than 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 40s. Highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. East winds less
than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-182000-
East Tennessee District East-
257 PM EDT Wed Oct 17 2018

                      Tonight      Thu          Thu Night    Fri

Cloud cover           MClear       MClear       MClear       PCldy
Temp (24h trend)      35-40 (-11)  56-61 (-5)   35-40        64-69
RH % (24h trend)      82-87 (-10)  33-38 (-14)  88-93        47-52
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  NE  5                     LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     NW  5        LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR
Precip type           None         None         None         None
Chance precip (%)     0            0            0            0
Precip duration
Precip begin
Precip end
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        4                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 3800                      3700
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                2300                      2200
Transport wnd (mph)                NE  7                     SW  6
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 26600                     22200
Dispersion                         15 Gen poor               11 Poor
Max LVORI                          4                         5
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  NE  6                     LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     NW  6        NE  5        LGT/VAR      SW  6

Remarks...None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Rain. Lows in the 40s to upper 50s. Southwest
winds less than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Highs in the 50s to
lower 60s. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Much
colder. Lows in the upper 20s to lower 40s. Northwest winds 5 to
10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Cooler. Highs in the upper 30s to mid
50s. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the 50s
to lower 60s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 40. Highs in the lower 50s
to mid 60s. North winds less than 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 40s. Highs in the 50s to mid 60s. East winds less than
10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-182000-
East Tennessee District West-
257 PM EDT Wed Oct 17 2018

                      Tonight      Thu          Thu Night    Fri

Cloud cover           MClear       MClear       MClear       PCldy
Temp (24h trend)      36-41 (-8)   58-63 (-4)   38-43        64-69
RH % (24h trend)      82-87 (-10)  32-37 (-16)  85-90        48-53
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  NE  6 G16                 LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     N  5         NE  5        LGT/VAR      SW  5
Precip type           None         None         None         Showers
Chance precip (%)     0            0            0            20
Precip duration                                              1
Precip begin                                                 2 PM
Precip end                                                   Continuing
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.01
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        4                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 3300                      3500
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                2000                      2300
Transport wnd (mph)                NE 10                     SW  8
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 33000                     28000
Dispersion                         17 Gen poor               16 Gen poor
Max LVORI                          4                         4
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  NE  8 G16                 LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     N  6         NE  6        LGT/VAR      SW  6

Remarks...None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Rain. Lows in the 40s to upper 50s. Southwest
winds less than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Highs in the 50s to
mid 60s. West winds less than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Colder. Lows in the mid 30s to
lower 40s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the mid 40s to upper 50s.
Northeast winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower
50s to mid 60s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid
50s to upper 60s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
mid 40s. Highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. East winds less than
10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ077-079>085-097>101-182000-
Cumberland District South-
257 PM EDT Wed Oct 17 2018 /157 PM CDT Wed Oct 17 2018/

                      Tonight      Thu          Thu Night    Fri

Cloud cover           MClear       MClear       MClear       PCldy
Temp (24h trend)      39-44 (-8)   61-66 (-2)   41-46        66-71
RH % (24h trend)      80-85 (-12)  33-38 (-14)  83-88        48-53
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  NE  8 G18                 LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     N  7 G17     NE  5        LGT/VAR      S  5
Precip type           None         None         None         None
Chance precip (%)     0            0            0            0
Precip duration
Precip begin
Precip end
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        4                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 2900                      3800
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                1700                      2700
Transport wnd (mph)                NE 12                     S 12
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 34800                     45600
Dispersion                         18 Gen poor               28 Fair
Max LVORI                          3                         3
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  NE  9 G18                 LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     N  8 G17     NE  7        LGT/VAR      S  6

Remarks...None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the 50s.
Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Highs in the upper
50s to mid 60s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Colder. Lows in the 30s to mid
40s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Clear. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s. Northeast winds
up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the 50s to
mid 60s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the 50s
to upper 60s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
mid 40s. Highs in the 60s. East winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

Digital Tabular Forecast
Hourly Forecast

Minimum Potential Accumulation

Expect at least this much. This is what we see as the least amount of snow the storm can produce.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.
 

Most Likely Snow Accumulation

Represents our official snow forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The snowfall amounts are provided in point (single number) and ranges (1-2", 2-4", etc.). You can toggle between the two by hovering over the "Point" and "Range" text above the image. The point amount is our forecast but the range for the "most likely" represents the forecast uncertainty in predefined ranges.

Maximum Potential Accumulation

What you should be prepared for. This is what we see as the storm's maximum potential snowfall accumulation.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.

 

Short to Long-Range Forecast
 
Day 1 Forecast Precipitation Day 2 Forecast Precipitation
Days 1-2 Precip Days 1-3 Precip
   
Day 3 Forecast Precipitation Days 1-3 Forecast Precipitation
Days 4-5 Precip Days 6-7 Precip
   

Days 6-10

Temperature  Precipitation
6-10 day temperature 6-10 day precipitation
   

Days 8-14

TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
8-14 day temperature 8-14 day precipitation

 

Products
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST DISCUSSION SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

 

 

  Additional Forecasts and Outlooks

  Fire Weather Outlook Issued by the Storm Prediction Center

  National Fire Weather Page

  Forecast Fire Danger Rating

  Drought Monitor

 

  Fire Weather Observations and Data

  Local RAWS Sites Information                                             Observed Fire Danger Rating                                 Observed 10-hour Fuel Moisture

  Current Local Observations                                                  Palmer Drought Index Map of the U.S.                   Observed 100-hour Fuel Moisture                    

  Wildland Fire Assessment System                                       Haines Index Map of the U.S.                                 Observed 1000-hour Fuel Moisture

  MADIS Meteorological Surface Observation Viewer            Keetch-Byram Drought Index Map of the U.S.

 

  Fire Weather Planning Tools                                             Fire Weather Annual Operating Plans                 Weather Normals and Records

 Graphical Planning Forecast Specific Point                          Tennessee                                                               Chattanooga

 Weather Activity Planner Specific Point                                 Virginia                                                                    Knoxville

 Point Forecast Matrices  Specific Point                                 North Carolina                                                         Oak Ridge

 Southern Area Coordination Center                                                                                                                      Tri-Cities

 Tennessee Fire Prevention 

 Fire Weather Awareness Week