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367
FNUS54 KMRX 230807
FWFMRX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for East Tennessee...Southwest
Virginia...and Extreme Southwest North Carolina
National Weather Service Morristown TN
407 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The Southern Appalachian Region will be in a normal
summer like weather pattern through Thursday with afternoon showers
and thunderstorms possible...mainly over the higher elevations. The
next chance of more widespread convection will be on Friday as the
next weather system approaches the area.



VAZ001-002-005-006-008-240915-
Jefferson National Forest/Virginia District 6-
407 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Thu

Cloud cover           PCldy        PCldy        PCldy
Temp (24h trend)      76-81 (0)    55-60 (-5)   77-82
RH % (24h trend)      56-61 (0)    93-98 (-3)   48-53
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   E  5
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     N  6         N  5         SE  5
Precip type           Tstms        None         Tstms
Chance precip (%)     20           0            20
Precip duration       1                         1
Precip begin          8 AM                      2 PM
Precip end            5 PM                      8 PM
Precip amount         0.04         0.00         0.01
LAL                   3            1            2
LASI/Haines           4                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    5400                      7000
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   3300                      4900
Transport wnd (mph)   NW 13                     SE 10
Vent Rate (mph-ft)    70200                     70000
Dispersion            36 Fair                   42 Gen good
Max LVORI             4                         4
33ft wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   E  6
33ft wind-PM(mph)     N  8         N  6         SE  7

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s to mid
60s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the 70s to lower 80s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower to mid 60s. South winds less
than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the 70s to
lower 80s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the 70s to lower
80s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the 70s to lower
80s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the 70s to lower
80s. East winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-240915-
Northern Cherokee National Forest-
407 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Thu

Cloud cover           MCldy        PCldy        PCldy
Temp (24h trend)      73-78 (+1)   54-59 (-4)   73-78
RH % (24h trend)      58-63 (0)    95-100 (0)   52-57
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   SE  6
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     NW  7        NE  5        SE  8 G18
Precip type           Tstms        Tstms        Tstms
Chance precip (%)     30           20           30
Precip duration       1            1            1
Precip begin          8 AM         Continuing   8 AM
Precip end            Continuing   10 PM        Continuing
Precip amount         0.11         0.01         0.02
LAL                   3            3            3
LASI/Haines           4                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    5400                      7000
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   2700                      4200
Transport wnd (mph)   NW 10                     SE 13
Vent Rate (mph-ft)    54000                     91000
Dispersion            23 Fair                   45 Gen good
Max LVORI             5                         4
33ft wind-AM(mph)     NW  5                     SE  8
33ft wind-PM(mph)     NW  8        NE  7        SE  9 G18

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Southeast winds
up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the mid 60s to lower 80s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. South winds less
than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the upper
60s to lower 80s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the mid 60s to
lower 80s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows
in the lower 60s. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s. Southeast
winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the lower
60s. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s. Southeast winds less
than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ072-074-240915-
Tennessee Portion Of The Great Smoky Mountain National Park-
407 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Thu

Cloud cover           MCldy        PCldy        PCldy
Temp (24h trend)      73-78 (+3)   57-62 (-2)   73-78
RH % (24h trend)      58-63 (-8)   92-97 (0)    56-61
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     N  7         NE  5        SE  5
Precip type           Tstms        Tstms        Tstms
Chance precip (%)     30           20           40
Precip duration       1            1            1
Precip begin          8 AM         Continuing   8 AM
Precip end            Continuing   12 AM        Continuing
Precip amount         0.12         0.01         0.20
LAL                   3            3            3
LASI/Haines           4                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    5400                      6100
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   2400                      3100
Transport wnd (mph)   N 10                      SE  7
Vent Rate (mph-ft)    54000                     42700
Dispersion            21 Fair                   19 Gen poor
Max LVORI             5                         5
33ft wind-AM(mph)     NW  6                     LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     N  8         NE  7        SE  6

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the 50s to mid 60s. Southeast winds up to
10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the 60s to lower 80s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the 50s to mid 60s. South winds
less than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the mid
60s to lower 80s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows
in the lower 60s. Highs in the 60s to lower 80s. Southeast winds
less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the lower
60s. Highs in the mid 60s to lower 80s. Southeast winds less than
10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the lower
60s. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s. Southeast winds less
than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ087-102-240915-
Southern Cherokee National Forest-
407 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Thu

Cloud cover           MCldy        PCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      77-82 (+3)   60-65 (-1)   77-82
RH % (24h trend)      55-60 (-5)   94-99 (0)    57-62
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     N  7         LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR
Precip type           Tstms        Tstms        Tstms
Chance precip (%)     30           30           50
Precip duration       1            1            1
Precip begin          8 AM         Continuing   8 AM
Precip end            Continuing   12 AM        Continuing
Precip amount         0.10         0.02         0.26
LAL                   3            3            3
LASI/Haines           4                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    5200                      5800
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   3200                      3800
Transport wnd (mph)   N 10                      SE  3
Vent Rate (mph-ft)    52000                     17400
Dispersion            29 Fair                   10 Poor
Max LVORI             4                         6
33ft wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     N  8         N  5         E  5

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Southeast winds up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Southeast winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the upper
60s to lower 80s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the upper 60s to
lower 80s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the mid 60s.
Highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s. Southeast winds less than
10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the mid 60s.
Highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

NCZ060-061-240915-
Nantahala National Forest-
407 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Thu

Cloud cover           MCldy        PCldy        PCldy
Temp (24h trend)      76-81 (+3)   59-64 (-1)   76-81
RH % (24h trend)      57-62 (-7)   95-100 (+3)  58-63
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     N  6         LGT/VAR      SE  5
Precip type           Tstms        Tstms        Tstms
Chance precip (%)     50           40           50
Precip duration       1            1            1
Precip begin          8 AM         Continuing   8 AM
Precip end            Continuing   12 AM        Continuing
Precip amount         0.20         0.01         0.19
LAL                   3            3            3
LASI/Haines           4                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    5300                      7100
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   3000                      4800
Transport wnd (mph)   N  8                      SE  7
Vent Rate (mph-ft)    42400                     49700
Dispersion            21 Fair                   28 Fair
Max LVORI             4                         5
33ft wind-AM(mph)     NE  5                     LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     N  7         SE  5        SE  7

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower to mid 60s. Southeast winds less
than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the mid 60s to lower 80s. Southeast winds up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Southeast winds less than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the upper
60s to lower 80s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the upper 60s to
lower 80s. East winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the lower
60s. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s. Southeast winds less
than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the mid 60s.
Highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-240915-
East Tennessee District East-
407 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Thu

Cloud cover           PCldy        PCldy        PCldy
Temp (24h trend)      77-82 (-1)   57-62 (-3)   79-84
RH % (24h trend)      56-61 (+1)   91-96 (-4)   50-55
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     NW  5        LGT/VAR      E  5
Precip type           Tstms        None         Tstms
Chance precip (%)     20           0            20
Precip duration       1                         1
Precip begin          8 AM                      8 AM
Precip end            Continuing                Continuing
Precip amount         0.07         0.00         0.01
LAL                   3            1            3
LASI/Haines           4                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    5000                      6000
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   3500                      4500
Transport wnd (mph)   NW  9                     E 10
Vent Rate (mph-ft)    45000                     60000
Dispersion            29 Fair                   40 Fair
Max LVORI             4                         4
33ft wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   E  5
33ft wind-PM(mph)     NW  6        NE  5        E  7

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s to mid
60s. East winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the lower 70s to mid 80s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower to mid 60s. Southeast winds less
than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the lower
70s to mid 80s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the 70s to lower
80s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the 70s to lower
80s. East winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the lower 70s to mid
80s. East winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-240915-
East Tennessee District West-
407 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Thu

Cloud cover           PCldy        PCldy        PCldy
Temp (24h trend)      78-83 (+1)   60-65 (-1)   81-86
RH % (24h trend)      56-61 (-3)   90-95 (-5)   46-51
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     N  6         LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR
Precip type           Tstms        None         Tstms
Chance precip (%)     20           0            20
Precip duration       1                         1
Precip begin          10 AM                     11 AM
Precip end            Continuing                Continuing
Precip amount         0.03         0.00         0.05
LAL                   3            1            3
LASI/Haines           4                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    5000                      5700
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   3800                      4400
Transport wnd (mph)   N  9                      E  7
Vent Rate (mph-ft)    45000                     39900
Dispersion            32 Fair                   28 Fair
Max LVORI             4                         4
33ft wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     N  7         NE  5        E  5

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. Southeast
winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the 70s to mid 80s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. South winds less
than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the 70s to
mid 80s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the lower 70s to mid
80s. East winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the 70s to mid 80s.
East winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the upper 70s to mid
80s. East winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ077-079>085-097>101-240915-
Cumberland District South-
407 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018 /307 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018/

                      Today        Tonight      Thu

Cloud cover           PCldy        PCldy        PCldy
Temp (24h trend)      81-86 (+3)   62-67 (-1)   81-86
RH % (24h trend)      53-58 (-1)   92-97 (0)    51-56
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     N  5         LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR
Precip type           Tstms        None         Tstms
Chance precip (%)     30           20           40
Precip duration       1            1            1
Precip begin          10 AM        Continuing   8 AM
Precip end            Continuing   10 PM        Continuing
Precip amount         0.03         0.01         0.09
LAL                   3            3            3
LASI/Haines           4                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    5100                      6000
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   3900                      4800
Transport wnd (mph)   N  9                      E  6
Vent Rate (mph-ft)    45900                     36000
Dispersion            32 Fair                   23 Fair
Max LVORI             4                         4
33ft wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     N  7         N  5         E  5

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Southeast winds less than
10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. South winds less
than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the 70s to
mid 80s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the mid 70s to lower
80s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the mid 60s.
Highs in the 70s to mid 80s. East winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the upper
60s. Highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. East winds less than
10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$


Digital Tabular Forecast
Hourly Forecast

Minimum Potential Accumulation

Expect at least this much. This is what we see as the least amount of snow the storm can produce.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.
 

Most Likely Snow Accumulation

Represents our official snow forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The snowfall amounts are provided in point (single number) and ranges (1-2", 2-4", etc.). You can toggle between the two by hovering over the "Point" and "Range" text above the image. The point amount is our forecast but the range for the "most likely" represents the forecast uncertainty in predefined ranges.

Maximum Potential Accumulation

What you should be prepared for. This is what we see as the storm's maximum potential snowfall accumulation.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.

 

Short to Long-Range Forecast
 
Day 1 Forecast Precipitation Day 2 Forecast Precipitation
Days 1-2 Precip Days 1-3 Precip
   
Day 3 Forecast Precipitation Days 1-3 Forecast Precipitation
Days 4-5 Precip Days 6-7 Precip
   

Days 6-10

Temperature  Precipitation
6-10 day temperature 6-10 day precipitation
   

Days 8-14

TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
8-14 day temperature 8-14 day precipitation

 

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