Fire Weather Program at WFO Morristown, TN

Please see this Service Change Notification on how Fire Weather boundaries, zone names and numbers will change on April 2nd, 2019. These products and outlook graphics can be used to support the fire weather program across east Tennessee, southwest Virginia, and southwest North Carolina. For more information, please call the NWS Morristown, Tennessee.

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	000 FNUS54 KMRX 191857 FWFMRX Fire Weather Planning Forecast for East Tennessee...Southwest Virginia...and Extreme Southwest North Carolina National Weather Service Morristown TN 257 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019 .DISCUSSION... Expect cool and dry weather across the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachian through mid week. Wednesday night into Thursday, a weak system approaches from the northwest, which will increase chances for light and scattered showers. However, most places will remain dry through the rest of the work week. VAZ001-002-005-006-008-202000- Jefferson National Forest/Virginia District 6- 257 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019 Tonight Wed Wed Night Thu Cloud cover MClear MClear PCldy MCldy Temp (24h trend) 28-33 (+5) 52-57 (+4) 35-40 47-52 RH % (24h trend) 56-61 (-9) 31-36 (+4) 83-88 55-60 20ft Wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR SW 7 G19 20ft Wind-PM(mph) LGT/VAR S 5 LGT/VAR NW 9 G21 Precip type None None Showers Showers Chance precip (%) 0 0 30 50 Precip duration 1 1 Precip begin 3 AM Continuing Precip end Continuing Continuing Precip amount 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.08 LAL 1 1 1 1 LASI/Haines 5 4 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 5800 7000 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)* 3800 4900 Transport wnd (mph) S 7 W 23 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 40600 161000 Dispersion 23 Fair 101 Very good Max LVORI 2 3 33ft wind-AM(mph) S 5 SW 8 G19 33ft wind-PM(mph) LGT/VAR S 6 S 5 NW 11 G21 Remarks...None. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. West winds 5 to 15 mph. .FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows near 30. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the mid 40s to upper 50s. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. .SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 50s to mid 60s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph. .MONDAY...Showers likely. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. North winds up to 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the 40s to mid 50s. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$ TNZ018-041-043-045-047-202000- Northern Cherokee National Forest- 257 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019 Tonight Wed Wed Night Thu Cloud cover MClear MClear PCldy MCldy Temp (24h trend) 27-32 (+7) 48-53 (+3) 32-37 44-49 RH % (24h trend) 55-60 (-12) 34-39 (+4) 82-87 57-62 20ft Wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR W 8 G21 20ft Wind-PM(mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR S 5 NW 11 G28 Precip type None None Showers Showers Chance precip (%) 0 0 30 40 Precip duration 1 1 Precip begin 4 AM Continuing Precip end Continuing Continuing Precip amount 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 LAL 1 1 1 1 LASI/Haines 5 3 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 6300 7100 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL) 3600 4300 Transport wnd (mph) S 6 W 28 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 37800 198800 Dispersion 15 Gen poor 102 Very good Max LVORI 2 3 33ft wind-AM(mph) SE 5 W 10 G21 33ft wind-PM(mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR S 7 NW 14 G28 Remarks...None. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s to upper 50s. Northwest winds 5 to 20 mph. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows near 30. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the mid 40s to upper 50s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. .SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 50s to mid 60s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph. .MONDAY...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 50s to mid 60s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the 40s to mid 50s. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$ TNZ072-074-202000- Tennessee Portion Of The Great Smoky Mountain National Park- 257 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019 Tonight Wed Wed Night Thu Cloud cover MClear MClear PCldy MCldy Temp (24h trend) 28-33 (+7) 49-54 (+5) 33-38 46-51 RH % (24h trend) 61-66 (+3) 38-43 (+3) 82-87 51-56 20ft Wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR W 8 G21 20ft Wind-PM(mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR SW 6 NW 11 G30 Precip type None None Showers Showers Chance precip (%) 0 0 30 30 Precip duration 1 1 Precip begin 3 AM Continuing Precip end Continuing Continuing Precip amount 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 LAL 1 1 1 1 LASI/Haines 4 3 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 6400 7400 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL) 3400 4400 Transport wnd (mph) SW 5 W 28 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 32000 207200 Dispersion 12 Poor 101 Very good Max LVORI 2 3 33ft wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR W 11 G21 33ft wind-PM(mph) E 5 NW 5 SW 7 NW 15 G30 Remarks...None. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s to lower 60s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. North winds 5 to 15 mph. .SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the mid 40s to lower 60s. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. .SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 50s to mid 60s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. .MONDAY...Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 50s to mid 60s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$ TNZ087-102-202000- Southern Cherokee National Forest- 257 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019 Tonight Wed Wed Night Thu Cloud cover Clear MClear PCldy PCldy Temp (24h trend) 29-34 (+5) 52-57 (+3) 35-40 51-56 RH % (24h trend) 58-63 (-5) 34-39 (+2) 80-85 48-53 20ft Wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR W 7 G20 20ft Wind-PM(mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR S 5 NW 10 G25 Precip type None None Showers Showers Chance precip (%) 0 0 20 30 Precip duration 1 1 Precip begin 4 AM Continuing Precip end Continuing 8 PM Precip amount 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 LAL 1 1 1 1 LASI/Haines 5 4 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 6200 7300 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL) 4200 5300 Transport wnd (mph) SW 5 NW 25 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 31000 182500 Dispersion 15 Gen poor 116 Very good Max LVORI 2 3 33ft wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR W 9 G20 33ft wind-PM(mph) NE 5 LGT/VAR S 7 NW 13 G25 Remarks...None. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s to upper 30s. North winds 5 to 15 mph. .FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 30s. North winds up to 10 mph. .SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. East winds up to 10 mph. .SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 50s to mid 60s. South winds up to 10 mph. .MONDAY...Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the 50s to mid 60s. West winds up to 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the 50s. North winds up to 10 mph. The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$ NCZ060-061-202000- Nantahala National Forest- 257 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019 Tonight Wed Wed Night Thu Cloud cover Clear MClear PCldy PCldy Temp (24h trend) 28-33 (+5) 52-57 (+3) 34-39 50-55 RH % (24h trend) 58-63 (-17) 33-38 (+1) 79-84 51-56 20ft Wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR W 7 G19 20ft Wind-PM(mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR LGT/VAR NW 11 G26 Precip type None None Showers Showers Chance precip (%) 0 0 20 30 Precip duration 1 1 Precip begin 4 AM Continuing Precip end Continuing 8 PM Precip amount 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 LAL 1 1 1 1 LASI/Haines 5 4 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 6800 7500 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL) 4500 5300 Transport wnd (mph) S 3 NW 26 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 20400 195000 Dispersion 13 Gen poor 119 Very good Max LVORI 2 3 33ft wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR W 8 G19 33ft wind-PM(mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR S 5 NW 14 G26 Remarks...None. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 30s. North winds up to 10 mph. .SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. East winds less than 10 mph. .SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the 50s to mid 60s. South winds less than 10 mph. .MONDAY...Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the 50s to mid 60s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. North winds less than 10 mph. The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$ TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-202000- East Tennessee District East- 257 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019 Tonight Wed Wed Night Thu Cloud cover MClear MClear PCldy MCldy Temp (24h trend) 28-33 (+5) 53-58 (+4) 35-40 49-54 RH % (24h trend) 60-65 (-11) 33-38 (+6) 83-88 51-56 20ft Wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR SW 6 G19 20ft Wind-PM(mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR LGT/VAR NW 9 G21 Precip type None None Showers Showers Chance precip (%) 0 0 30 40 Precip duration 1 1 Precip begin 3 AM Continuing Precip end Continuing Continuing Precip amount 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 LAL 1 1 1 1 LASI/Haines 5 4 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 5500 6900 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL) 4000 5400 Transport wnd (mph) SW 5 W 25 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 27500 172500 Dispersion 15 Gen poor 117 Very good Max LVORI 2 4 33ft wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR SW 9 G19 33ft wind-PM(mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR S 5 NW 11 G21 Remarks...None. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the lower to mid 30s. West winds up to 10 mph. .FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. .SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph. .SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the 50s to mid 60s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph. .MONDAY...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the 50s to mid 60s. East winds less than 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Cooler. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 40s to mid 50s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph. The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$ TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-202000- East Tennessee District West- 257 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019 Tonight Wed Wed Night Thu Cloud cover MClear MClear MCldy MCldy Temp (24h trend) 30-35 (+5) 54-59 (+4) 37-42 52-57 RH % (24h trend) 62-67 (-5) 32-37 (+3) 86-91 49-54 20ft Wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR W 5 G18 20ft Wind-PM(mph) LGT/VAR SW 5 LGT/VAR NW 9 G21 Precip type None None Showers Showers Chance precip (%) 0 0 30 30 Precip duration 1 1 Precip begin 2 AM Continuing Precip end Continuing 8 PM Precip amount 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.05 LAL 1 1 1 1 LASI/Haines 5 4 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 5400 7100 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL) 4100 5900 Transport wnd (mph) SW 7 NW 24 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 37800 170400 Dispersion 24 Fair 124 Very good Max LVORI 2 4 33ft wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR W 7 G18 33ft wind-PM(mph) LGT/VAR SW 6 SW 5 NW 11 G21 Remarks...None. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. West winds up to 10 mph. .FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 30s. North winds up to 10 mph. .SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the upper 40s to lower 60s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph. .SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 50s to upper 60s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph. .MONDAY...Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the 50s to upper 60s. North winds up to 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s. North winds up to 10 mph. The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$ TNZ077-079>085-097>101-202000- Cumberland District South- 257 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019 /157 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019/ Tonight Wed Wed Night Thu Cloud cover Clear MClear MCldy PCldy Temp (24h trend) 30-35 (+3) 55-60 (+4) 38-43 54-59 RH % (24h trend) 61-66 (-1) 31-36 (+3) 86-91 47-52 20ft Wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR NW 6 G19 20ft Wind-PM(mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR LGT/VAR NW 10 G21 Precip type None None Showers Showers Chance precip (%) 0 0 20 30 Precip duration 1 1 Precip begin 2 AM Continuing Precip end Continuing 4 PM Precip amount 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.03 LAL 1 1 1 1 LASI/Haines 5 3 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 5200 6900 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL) 4100 5800 Transport wnd (mph) SW 7 NW 24 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 36400 165600 Dispersion 23 Fair 119 Very good Max LVORI 2 4 33ft wind-AM(mph) S 5 NW 8 G19 33ft wind-PM(mph) LGT/VAR SW 5 SW 5 NW 12 G21 Remarks...None. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. .FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs near 60. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the 30s. North winds less than 10 mph. .SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. East winds less than 10 mph. .SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the 60s. South winds less than 10 mph. .MONDAY...Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the 50s to upper 60s. North winds up to 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. North winds up to 10 mph. *The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$
Digital Tabular Forecast

Minimum Potential Accumulation Expect at least this much. This is what we see as the least amount of snow the storm can produce. This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount. Most Likely Snow Accumulation Represents our official snow forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The snowfall amounts are provided in point (single number) and ranges (1-2", 2-4", etc.). You can toggle between the two by hovering over the "Point" and "Range" text above the image. The point amount is our forecast but the range for the "most likely" represents the forecast uncertainty in predefined ranges. Maximum Potential Accumulation What you should be prepared for. This is what we see as the storm's maximum potential snowfall accumulation. This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.

Short to Long-Range Forecast

Day 1 Forecast Precipitation	Day 2 Forecast Precipitation


Day 3 Forecast Precipitation	Days 1-3 Forecast Precipitation


Days 6-10
Temperature	Precipitation


Days 8-14
TEMPERATURE	PRECIPITATION