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These products and outlook graphics can be used to support the fire weather program across east Tennessee, southwest Virginia, and southwest North Carolina. For more information, please call the NWS Morristown, Tennessee.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

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000
FNUS54 KMRX 151936
FWFMRX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for East Tennessee...Southwest
Virginia...and Extreme Southwest North Carolina
National Weather Service Morristown TN
236 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

.DISCUSSION...

A strong storm system will exit the area tonight, bringing drier air
and clearing conditions for Friday. Dry weather is expected this
weekend, with afternoon temperatures getting warmer and only a few
degrees below normal.



VAZ001-002-005-006-008-162045-
Jefferson National Forest/Virginia District 6-
236 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

                      Tonight      Fri          Fri Night    Sat

Cloud cover           MCldy        MClear       MClear       MClear
Temp (24h trend)      25-30 (-8)   43-48 (+6)   29-34        51-56
RH % (24h trend)      95-100 (+5)  55-60 (-26)  92-97        49-54
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  SW  8 G21                 LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     W 10 G25     SW  7 G21    LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR
Precip type           Snow Showers None         None         None
Chance precip (%)     60           0            0            0
Precip duration       1
Precip begin          7 PM
Precip end            4 AM
Precip amount         0.05         0.00         0.00         0.00
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        4                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 3500                      2300
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                1400                      300
Transport wnd (mph)                SW 17                     SW  8
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 59500                     18400
Dispersion                         21 Fair                   2 Very poor
Max LVORI                          5                         7
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  SW 11 G21                 LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     W 12 G25     SW  9 G21    LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid to upper 30s.
South winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s. Southwest
winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in
the mid 30s to lower 40s. West winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs in the 40s to
lower 50s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the
upper 30s to lower 50s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the
40s to lower 50s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 40s
to mid 50s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-162045-
Northern Cherokee National Forest-
236 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

                      Tonight      Fri          Fri Night    Sat

Cloud cover           MCldy        PCldy        MClear       Clear
Temp (24h trend)      21-26 (-12)  42-47 (+5)   29-34        52-57
RH % (24h trend)      95-100 (+6)  54-59 (-25)  86-91        43-48
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  W  8 G22                  LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     W 13 G33     W  8 G23     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR
Precip type           Snow Showers None         None         None
Chance precip (%)     50           0            0            0
Precip duration       1
Precip begin          7 PM
Precip end            4 AM
Precip amount         0.07         0.00         0.00         0.00
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        3                         5
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 3900                      2900
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                1100                      200
Transport wnd (mph)                W 18                      SW  7
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 70200                     20300
Dispersion                         16 Gen poor               1 Very poor
Max LVORI                          5                         5
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  W 10 G22                  LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     W 17 G33     W 11 G23     W  5         LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Southwest
winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s. West winds
less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
West winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Highs in the
40s to lower 50s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the
lower 40s to mid 50s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the
lower 40s to mid 50s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the 40s
to mid 50s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ072-074-162045-
Tennessee Portion Of The Great Smoky Mountain National Park-
236 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

                      Tonight      Fri          Fri Night    Sat

Cloud cover           MCldy        MClear       MClear       Clear
Temp (24h trend)      22-27 (-14)  46-51 (+8)   31-36        52-57
RH % (24h trend)      95-100 (+3)  47-52 (-28)  79-84        42-47
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  W  8 G24                  LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     W 11 G29     W  8 G23     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR
Precip type           Snow Showers None         None         None
Chance precip (%)     20           0            0            0
Precip duration       1
Precip begin          7 PM
Precip end            1 AM
Precip amount         0.02         0.00         0.00         0.00
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        4                         5
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 4100                      3200
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                1100                      200
Transport wnd (mph)                W 16                      SW  9
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 65600                     28800
Dispersion                         13 Gen poor               1 Very poor
Max LVORI                          6                         4
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  W 10 G24                  LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     W 15 G29     W 10 G23     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the 30s. Southwest winds
less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s to upper 50s. West
winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 30s to lower 40s. West
winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Highs in the
lower 40s to mid 50s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the
lower 40s to mid 50s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the
lower 40s to mid 50s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the 40s
to mid 50s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ087-102-162045-
Southern Cherokee National Forest-
236 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

                      Tonight      Fri          Fri Night    Sat

Cloud cover           PCldy        MClear       MClear       Clear
Temp (24h trend)      24-29 (-14)  49-54 (+10)  31-36        55-60
RH % (24h trend)      94-99 (0)    45-50 (-23)  91-96        47-52
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     W  8 G18     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR
Precip type           None         None         None         None
Chance precip (%)     0            0            0            0
Precip duration
Precip begin
Precip end
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        4                         5
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 3200                      2400
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                1100                      400
Transport wnd (mph)                W  9                      SW  6
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 28800                     14400
Dispersion                         8 Poor                    2 Very poor
Max LVORI                          6                         6
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     W 10 G18     W  5         LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Southwest
winds less than 10 mph in the evening becoming light.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s to lower 60s. West
winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s. North
winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 40s to
mid 50s. North winds less than 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 40s
to mid 50s. East winds less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the mid
40s to upper 50s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

NCZ060-061-162045-
Nantahala National Forest-
236 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

                      Tonight      Fri          Fri Night    Sat

Cloud cover           PCldy        MClear       MClear       Clear
Temp (24h trend)      24-29 (-14)  51-56 (+11)  30-35        56-61
RH % (24h trend)      95-100 (-1)  43-48 (-22)  91-96        43-48
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  NW  5 G17                 LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     NW  9 G24    NW  5        LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR
Precip type           None         None         None         None
Chance precip (%)     0            0            0            0
Precip duration
Precip begin
Precip end
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        4                         5
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 3300                      2500
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                1000                      200
Transport wnd (mph)                NW 10                     SW  6
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 33000                     15000
Dispersion                         8 Poor                    1 Very poor
Max LVORI                          6                         6
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  NW  7 G17                 LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     NW 12 G24    NW  6        LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Light
winds.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. West winds
less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid to upper 30s. West
winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s. North
winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the upper
40s to mid 50s. North winds less than 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 40s
to upper 50s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the 40s
to upper 50s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-162045-
East Tennessee District East-
236 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

                      Tonight      Fri          Fri Night    Sat

Cloud cover           MCldy        MClear       MClear       Clear
Temp (24h trend)      26-31 (-10)  46-51 (+5)   29-34        54-59
RH % (24h trend)      95-100 (+4)  51-56 (-26)  91-96        49-54
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  SW  8 G17                 LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     W 11 G25     SW  7 G18    LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR
Precip type           Snow Showers None         None         None
Chance precip (%)     30           0            0            0
Precip duration       1
Precip begin          7 PM
Precip end            1 AM
Precip amount         0.02         0.00         0.00         0.00
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        4                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 3200                      2200
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                1700                      700
Transport wnd (mph)                SW 15                     S  5
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 48000                     11000
Dispersion                         22 Fair                   2 Very poor
Max LVORI                          5                         7
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  SW 10 G17                 LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     W 14 G25     SW  8 G18    LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Light
winds.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the 50s. Light winds becoming
west less than 10 mph in the afternoon.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in
the mid 30s to lower 40s. Light winds.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs in the mid 40s
to lower 50s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the lower
40s to mid 50s. West winds less than 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the
40s to mid 50s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the
upper 40s to mid 50s. Light winds.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-162045-
East Tennessee District West-
236 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

                      Tonight      Fri          Fri Night    Sat

Cloud cover           PCldy        MClear       MClear       Clear
Temp (24h trend)      26-31 (-10)  48-53 (+9)   30-35        54-59
RH % (24h trend)      91-96 (-3)   50-55 (-17)  93-98        52-57
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  SW  6 G15                 LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     W  8 G20     SW  5        LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR
Precip type           None         None         None         None
Chance precip (%)     0            0            0            0
Precip duration
Precip begin
Precip end
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        4                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 3000                      2100
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                1700                      900
Transport wnd (mph)                SW 12                     SW  7
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 36000                     14700
Dispersion                         17 Gen poor               5 Very poor
Max LVORI                          5                         6
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  SW  8 G15                 LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     W 10 G20     SW  7        LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Light
winds.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Light
winds becoming west less than 10 mph in the afternoon.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows
near 40. West winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Highs in the
40s to mid 50s. North winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 40s
to mid 50s. North winds less than 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 40s
to mid 50s. Light winds.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the 40s
to upper 50s. Light winds.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ077-079>085-097>101-162045-
Cumberland District South-
236 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018 /136 PM CST Thu Nov 15 2018/

                      Tonight      Fri          Fri Night    Sat

Cloud cover           PCldy        MClear       MClear       Clear
Temp (24h trend)      26-31 (-10)  50-55 (+13)  31-36        56-61
RH % (24h trend)      93-98 (-2)   48-53 (-21)  91-96        52-57
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     W  7 G21     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR
Precip type           None         None         None         None
Chance precip (%)     0            0            0            0
Precip duration
Precip begin
Precip end
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI/Haines                        4                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 2800                      2100
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                1600                      1000
Transport wnd (mph)                W  9                      SW  7
Vent Rate (mph-ft)                 25200                     14700
Dispersion                         13 Gen poor               6 Very poor
Max LVORI                          5                         6
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  SW  5                     LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     W 10 G21     SW  5        LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows near 40. Light winds.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Light
winds becoming west less than 10 mph in the afternoon.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows near 40. West winds less than
10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Highs in the
40s to upper 50s. North winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 40s to
upper 50s. North winds less than 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 40s
to upper 50s. East winds less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 40. Highs in the 50s.
Southeast winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

Digital Tabular Forecast
Hourly Forecast

Minimum Potential Accumulation

Expect at least this much. This is what we see as the least amount of snow the storm can produce.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.
 

Most Likely Snow Accumulation

Represents our official snow forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The snowfall amounts are provided in point (single number) and ranges (1-2", 2-4", etc.). You can toggle between the two by hovering over the "Point" and "Range" text above the image. The point amount is our forecast but the range for the "most likely" represents the forecast uncertainty in predefined ranges.

Maximum Potential Accumulation

What you should be prepared for. This is what we see as the storm's maximum potential snowfall accumulation.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.

 

Short to Long-Range Forecast
 
Day 1 Forecast Precipitation Day 2 Forecast Precipitation
Days 1-2 Precip Days 1-3 Precip
   
Day 3 Forecast Precipitation Days 1-3 Forecast Precipitation
Days 4-5 Precip Days 6-7 Precip
   

Days 6-10

Temperature  Precipitation
6-10 day temperature 6-10 day precipitation
   

Days 8-14

TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
8-14 day temperature 8-14 day precipitation

 

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