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These products and outlook graphics can be used to support the fire weather program across east Tennessee, southwest Virginia, and southwest North Carolina. For more information, please call the NWS Morristown, Tennessee.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

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399
FNUS54 KMRX 130752
FWFMRX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for East Tennessee...Southwest
Virginia...and Extreme Southwest North Carolina
National Weather Service Morristown TN
252 AM EST Thu Dec 13 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A ridge of high pressure has moved east of the area
allowing winds to become southwesterly slowly pulling moisture
and milder temperatures back into the southern Appalachians.

As a storm system over the southern Plains moves toward the area for
Friday and Saturday rain chances will increase, as well windy
conditions over the Mountains and adjacent Foothills.  Warmer air
streaming in ahead of this system will keep the precipitation in the
form of rain. Sunday the system moves out with the rain ending and
temperatures staying near to above normal.



VAZ001-002-005-006-008-140900-
Jefferson National Forest/Virginia District 6-
252 AM EST Thu Dec 13 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Fri

Cloud cover           MCldy        PCldy        Cloudy
Temp (24h trend)      46-51 (+7)   34-39 (+4)   48-53
RH % (24h trend)      46-51 (-9)   93-98 (+5)   58-63
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   E 11 G29
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      SE  5 G15    SE 12 G30
Precip type           None         Showers      Showers
Chance precip (%)     0            20           100
Precip duration                    1            5
Precip begin                       3 AM         Continuing
Precip end                         Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.00         0.01         0.48
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI/Haines           4                         2
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    3200                      2700
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   1200                      600
Transport wnd (mph)   S  7                      E 21
Vent Rate (mph-ft)    22400                     56700
Dispersion            6 Very poor               11 Poor
Max LVORI             4                         6
33ft wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   E 14 G29
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SE  5        SE  7 G15    SE 15 G30

Remarks...None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers. Lows in the 40s. Southeast winds 5 to
15 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Southwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the upper
30s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs in the 40s to
lower 50s. West winds up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the 30s
to upper 40s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the 30s
to upper 40s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the mid
40s to lower 50s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-140900-
Northern Cherokee National Forest-
252 AM EST Thu Dec 13 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Fri

Cloud cover           MCldy        MCldy        Cloudy
Temp (24h trend)      46-51 (+6)   34-39 (+6)   48-53
RH % (24h trend)      32-37 (-8)   95-100 (+8)  66-71
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   SE 17 G46
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     SE  6 G22    SE 10 G24    SE 19 G46
Precip type           None         Showers      Showers
Chance precip (%)     0            40           100
Precip duration                    1            5
Precip begin                       2 AM         Continuing
Precip end                         Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.00         0.04         0.59
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI/Haines           5                         2
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    3500                      2900
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   800                       200
Transport wnd (mph)   SE  8                     SE 25
Vent Rate (mph-ft)    28000                     72500
Dispersion            4 Very poor               4 Very poor
Max LVORI             4                         8
33ft wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   SE 22 G46
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SE  8 G22    SE 12 G24    SE 23 G46

Remarks...None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers. Lows in the lower to mid 40s. South
winds 10 to 20 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the 40s to mid 50s.
Southwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the mid 30s
to lower 40s. West winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs in the 40s to
lower 50s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the 40s
to lower 50s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the
upper 30s to lower 50s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the
lower 40s to mid 50s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ072-074-140900-
Tennessee Portion Of The Great Smoky Mountain National Park-
252 AM EST Thu Dec 13 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Fri

Cloud cover           PCldy        MCldy        Cloudy
Temp (24h trend)      49-54 (+7)   37-42 (+7)   50-55
RH % (24h trend)      25-30 (-8)   95-100 (+15) 70-75
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     S  5                      SE 17 G47
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     SE  6 G22    SE 11 G30    SE 19 G48
Precip type           None         Showers      Showers
Chance precip (%)     0            70           100
Precip duration                    1            7
Precip begin                       1 AM         Continuing
Precip end                         Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.00         0.07         0.59
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI/Haines           5                         2
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    4100                      3200
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   1100                      200
Transport wnd (mph)   S 10                      SE 25
Vent Rate (mph-ft)    41000                     80000
Dispersion            8 Poor                    3 Very poor
Max LVORI             2                         8
33ft wind-AM(mph)     S  6                      SE 21 G47
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SE  8 G22    SE 14 G30    SE 23 G48

Remarks...None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers. Lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. South
winds 5 to 20 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s.
Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Cloudy. Chance of showers. Colder. Lows in the
30s to lower 40s. West winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Highs in the
40s to lower 50s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the 40s
to lower 50s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the 40s
to lower 50s. Southeast winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the
40s to lower 50s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ087-102-140900-
Southern Cherokee National Forest-
252 AM EST Thu Dec 13 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Fri

Cloud cover           MCldy        MCldy        Cloudy
Temp (24h trend)      51-56 (+5)   40-45 (+9)   51-56
RH % (24h trend)      34-39 (+1)   95-100 (+30) 73-78
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     SE  6                     SE 13 G31
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     SE  8 G21    SE 10 G26    SE 12 G30
Precip type           None         Showers      Showers
Chance precip (%)     0            70           100
Precip duration                    1            8
Precip begin                       12 AM        Continuing
Precip end                         Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.00         0.12         0.56
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI/Haines           5                         2
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    3600                      2200
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   1500                      200
Transport wnd (mph)   SE 13                     SE 21
Vent Rate (mph-ft)    46800                     46200
Dispersion            15 Gen poor               3 Very poor
Max LVORI             3                         9
33ft wind-AM(mph)     SE  7                     SE 17 G31
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SE 10 G21    SE 13 G26    SE 16 G30

Remarks...None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the mid 40s. South winds
5 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the upper
30s. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Highs in the
mid 40s to lower 50s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 30. Highs in the mid 40s to
lower 50s. North winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the mid
40s to lower 50s. East winds less than 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 40s
to mid 50s. South winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

NCZ060-061-140900-
Nantahala National Forest-
252 AM EST Thu Dec 13 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Fri

Cloud cover           MCldy        MCldy        Cloudy
Temp (24h trend)      49-54 (+3)   38-43 (+11)  51-56
RH % (24h trend)      34-39 (-5)   95-100 (+24) 79-84
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   SE 12 G28
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     SE  7 G20    SE  9 G23    SE 10 G27
Precip type           None         Showers      Showers
Chance precip (%)     0            80           100
Precip duration                    2            8
Precip begin                       11 PM        Continuing
Precip end                         Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.00         0.14         0.56
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI/Haines           5                         2
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    3700                      2400
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   1400                      100
Transport wnd (mph)   SE  9                     SE 21
Vent Rate (mph-ft)    33300                     50400
Dispersion            12 Poor                   2 Very poor
Max LVORI             3                         10
33ft wind-AM(mph)     SE  5                     SE 15 G28
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SE  9 G20    SE 11 G23    SE 13 G27

Remarks...None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the mid 40s. South winds
5 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the mid 30s
to lower 40s. West winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Highs in the
mid 40s to lower 50s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the 40s
to mid 50s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the 40s
to mid 50s. East winds less than 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 40s
to mid 50s. South winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-140900-
East Tennessee District East-
252 AM EST Thu Dec 13 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Fri

Cloud cover           PCldy        PCldy        Cloudy
Temp (24h trend)      49-54 (+6)   35-40 (+4)   50-55
RH % (24h trend)      44-49 (-11)  95-100 (+10) 65-70
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   E 10 G27
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      E  5 G15     E 11 G26
Precip type           None         Showers      Showers
Chance precip (%)     0            30           100
Precip duration                    1            5
Precip begin                       3 AM         Continuing
Precip end                         Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.00         0.03         0.52
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI/Haines           5                         2
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    2900                      2400
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   1400                      900
Transport wnd (mph)   SE  5                     E 20
Vent Rate (mph-ft)    14500                     48000
Dispersion            5 Very poor               15 Gen poor
Max LVORI             4                         5
33ft wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   E 13 G27
33ft wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      E  7 G15     E 13 G26

Remarks...None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers. Lows in the mid 40s. East winds 5 to
15 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southwest in the
afternoon.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows around 40.
Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs in the 40s to
lower 50s. West winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the 40s
to lower 50s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 30. Highs in the 40s to
lower 50s. East winds less than 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 40s
to mid 50s. South winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-140900-
East Tennessee District West-
252 AM EST Thu Dec 13 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Fri

Cloud cover           MCldy        MCldy        Cloudy
Temp (24h trend)      50-55 (+5)   39-44 (+5)   49-54
RH % (24h trend)      46-51 (-1)   94-99 (+18)  63-68
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   E  8 G22
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      E  5 G15     E  8 G21
Precip type           None         Showers      Showers
Chance precip (%)     0            50           100
Precip duration                    1            7
Precip begin                       2 AM         Continuing
Precip end                         Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.00         0.05         0.57
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI/Haines           5                         2
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    3200                      2100
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   1900                      800
Transport wnd (mph)   S  9                      E 17
Vent Rate (mph-ft)    28800                     35700
Dispersion            14 Gen poor               12 Poor
Max LVORI             3                         6
33ft wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   E 10 G22
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SE  5        E  7 G15     E  9 G21

Remarks...None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the 40s. South winds up
to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Southwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows near 40. West
winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Highs in the
40s to mid 50s. West winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 30. Highs in the 40s to lower
50s. North winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the 40s
to lower 50s. East winds less than 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 40s
to mid 50s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ077-079>085-097>101-140900-
Cumberland District South-
252 AM EST Thu Dec 13 2018 /152 AM CST Thu Dec 13 2018/

                      Today        Tonight      Fri

Cloud cover           MCldy        MCldy        Cloudy
Temp (24h trend)      51-56 (+6)   40-45 (+6)   52-57
RH % (24h trend)      43-48 (-5)   95-100 (+17) 72-77
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   E  7 G19
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     SE  7 G17    SE  6 G17    E  7 G19
Precip type           None         Showers      Showers
Chance precip (%)     0            80           100
Precip duration                    2            8
Precip begin                       10 PM        Continuing
Precip end                         Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.00         0.15         0.49
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI/Haines           5                         2
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    3600                      1700
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   2400                      600
Transport wnd (mph)   S 14                      E 15
Vent Rate (mph-ft)    50400                     25500
Dispersion            30 Fair                   7 Poor
Max LVORI             3                         8
33ft wind-AM(mph)     SE  5                     E  9 G19
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SE  8 G17    SE  8 G17    E  9 G19

Remarks...None.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the upper 40s. South
winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers likely. Highs near 50. Southwest winds up to
10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the upper
30s. West winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Northwest winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the 40s
to mid 50s. North winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the 40s
to mid 50s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the
upper 40s to mid 50s. South winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$


Digital Tabular Forecast
Hourly Forecast

Minimum Potential Accumulation

Expect at least this much. This is what we see as the least amount of snow the storm can produce.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.
 

Most Likely Snow Accumulation

Represents our official snow forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The snowfall amounts are provided in point (single number) and ranges (1-2", 2-4", etc.). You can toggle between the two by hovering over the "Point" and "Range" text above the image. The point amount is our forecast but the range for the "most likely" represents the forecast uncertainty in predefined ranges.

Maximum Potential Accumulation

What you should be prepared for. This is what we see as the storm's maximum potential snowfall accumulation.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.

 

Short to Long-Range Forecast
 
Day 1 Forecast Precipitation Day 2 Forecast Precipitation
Days 1-2 Precip Days 1-3 Precip
   
Day 3 Forecast Precipitation Days 1-3 Forecast Precipitation
Days 4-5 Precip Days 6-7 Precip
   

Days 6-10

Temperature  Precipitation
6-10 day temperature 6-10 day precipitation
   

Days 8-14

TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
8-14 day temperature 8-14 day precipitation

 

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