Fire Weather Program at WFO Morristown, TN

These products and outlook graphics can be used to support the fire weather program across east Tennessee, southwest Virginia, and southwest North Carolina. For more information, please call the NWS Morristown, Tennessee.

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	000 FNUS54 KMRX 151936 FWFMRX Fire Weather Planning Forecast for East Tennessee...Southwest Virginia...and Extreme Southwest North Carolina National Weather Service Morristown TN 236 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018 .DISCUSSION... A strong storm system will exit the area tonight, bringing drier air and clearing conditions for Friday. Dry weather is expected this weekend, with afternoon temperatures getting warmer and only a few degrees below normal. VAZ001-002-005-006-008-162045- Jefferson National Forest/Virginia District 6- 236 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018 Tonight Fri Fri Night Sat Cloud cover MCldy MClear MClear MClear Temp (24h trend) 25-30 (-8) 43-48 (+6) 29-34 51-56 RH % (24h trend) 95-100 (+5) 55-60 (-26) 92-97 49-54 20ft Wind-AM(mph) SW 8 G21 LGT/VAR 20ft Wind-PM(mph) W 10 G25 SW 7 G21 LGT/VAR LGT/VAR Precip type Snow Showers None None None Chance precip (%) 60 0 0 0 Precip duration 1 Precip begin 7 PM Precip end 4 AM Precip amount 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 LAL 1 1 1 1 LASI/Haines 4 4 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 3500 2300 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)* 1400 300 Transport wnd (mph) SW 17 SW 8 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 59500 18400 Dispersion 21 Fair 2 Very poor Max LVORI 5 7 33ft wind-AM(mph) SW 11 G21 LGT/VAR 33ft wind-PM(mph) W 12 G25 SW 9 G21 LGT/VAR LGT/VAR Remarks...None. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid to upper 30s. South winds less than 10 mph. .SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. West winds less than 10 mph. .MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 50s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. South winds less than 10 mph. .THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 40s to mid 50s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph. The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$ TNZ018-041-043-045-047-162045- Northern Cherokee National Forest- 236 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018 Tonight Fri Fri Night Sat Cloud cover MCldy PCldy MClear Clear Temp (24h trend) 21-26 (-12) 42-47 (+5) 29-34 52-57 RH % (24h trend) 95-100 (+6) 54-59 (-25) 86-91 43-48 20ft Wind-AM(mph) W 8 G22 LGT/VAR 20ft Wind-PM(mph) W 13 G33 W 8 G23 LGT/VAR LGT/VAR Precip type Snow Showers None None None Chance precip (%) 50 0 0 0 Precip duration 1 Precip begin 7 PM Precip end 4 AM Precip amount 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 LAL 1 1 1 1 LASI/Haines 3 5 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 3900 2900 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL) 1100 200 Transport wnd (mph) W 18 SW 7 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 70200 20300 Dispersion 16 Gen poor 1 Very poor Max LVORI 5 5 33ft wind-AM(mph) W 10 G22 LGT/VAR 33ft wind-PM(mph) W 17 G33 W 11 G23 W 5 LGT/VAR Remarks...None. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph. .SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s. West winds less than 10 mph. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. West winds less than 10 mph. .MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the lower 40s to mid 50s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the lower 40s to mid 50s. South winds less than 10 mph. .THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the 40s to mid 50s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph. The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$ TNZ072-074-162045- Tennessee Portion Of The Great Smoky Mountain National Park- 236 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018 Tonight Fri Fri Night Sat Cloud cover MCldy MClear MClear Clear Temp (24h trend) 22-27 (-14) 46-51 (+8) 31-36 52-57 RH % (24h trend) 95-100 (+3) 47-52 (-28) 79-84 42-47 20ft Wind-AM(mph) W 8 G24 LGT/VAR 20ft Wind-PM(mph) W 11 G29 W 8 G23 LGT/VAR LGT/VAR Precip type Snow Showers None None None Chance precip (%) 20 0 0 0 Precip duration 1 Precip begin 7 PM Precip end 1 AM Precip amount 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 LAL 1 1 1 1 LASI/Haines 4 5 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 4100 3200 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL) 1100 200 Transport wnd (mph) W 16 SW 9 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 65600 28800 Dispersion 13 Gen poor 1 Very poor Max LVORI 6 4 33ft wind-AM(mph) W 10 G24 LGT/VAR 33ft wind-PM(mph) W 15 G29 W 10 G23 LGT/VAR LGT/VAR Remarks...None. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the 30s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph. .SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s to upper 50s. West winds less than 10 mph. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 30s to lower 40s. West winds less than 10 mph. .MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Highs in the lower 40s to mid 50s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the lower 40s to mid 50s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the lower 40s to mid 50s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph. .THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the 40s to mid 50s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph. The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$ TNZ087-102-162045- Southern Cherokee National Forest- 236 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018 Tonight Fri Fri Night Sat Cloud cover PCldy MClear MClear Clear Temp (24h trend) 24-29 (-14) 49-54 (+10) 31-36 55-60 RH % (24h trend) 94-99 (0) 45-50 (-23) 91-96 47-52 20ft Wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR 20ft Wind-PM(mph) W 8 G18 LGT/VAR LGT/VAR LGT/VAR Precip type None None None None Chance precip (%) 0 0 0 0 Precip duration Precip begin Precip end Precip amount 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 LAL 1 1 1 1 LASI/Haines 4 5 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 3200 2400 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL) 1100 400 Transport wnd (mph) W 9 SW 6 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 28800 14400 Dispersion 8 Poor 2 Very poor Max LVORI 6 6 33ft wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR 33ft wind-PM(mph) W 10 G18 W 5 LGT/VAR LGT/VAR Remarks...None. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph in the evening becoming light. .SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s to lower 60s. West winds less than 10 mph. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph. .MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s. North winds less than 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 40s to mid 50s. North winds less than 10 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 40s to mid 50s. East winds less than 10 mph. .THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the mid 40s to upper 50s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph. The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$ NCZ060-061-162045- Nantahala National Forest- 236 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018 Tonight Fri Fri Night Sat Cloud cover PCldy MClear MClear Clear Temp (24h trend) 24-29 (-14) 51-56 (+11) 30-35 56-61 RH % (24h trend) 95-100 (-1) 43-48 (-22) 91-96 43-48 20ft Wind-AM(mph) NW 5 G17 LGT/VAR 20ft Wind-PM(mph) NW 9 G24 NW 5 LGT/VAR LGT/VAR Precip type None None None None Chance precip (%) 0 0 0 0 Precip duration Precip begin Precip end Precip amount 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 LAL 1 1 1 1 LASI/Haines 4 5 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 3300 2500 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL) 1000 200 Transport wnd (mph) NW 10 SW 6 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 33000 15000 Dispersion 8 Poor 1 Very poor Max LVORI 6 6 33ft wind-AM(mph) NW 7 G17 LGT/VAR 33ft wind-PM(mph) NW 12 G24 NW 6 LGT/VAR LGT/VAR Remarks...None. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Light winds. .SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. West winds less than 10 mph. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid to upper 30s. West winds less than 10 mph. .MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s. North winds less than 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. North winds less than 10 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph. .THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph. The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$ TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-162045- East Tennessee District East- 236 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018 Tonight Fri Fri Night Sat Cloud cover MCldy MClear MClear Clear Temp (24h trend) 26-31 (-10) 46-51 (+5) 29-34 54-59 RH % (24h trend) 95-100 (+4) 51-56 (-26) 91-96 49-54 20ft Wind-AM(mph) SW 8 G17 LGT/VAR 20ft Wind-PM(mph) W 11 G25 SW 7 G18 LGT/VAR LGT/VAR Precip type Snow Showers None None None Chance precip (%) 30 0 0 0 Precip duration 1 Precip begin 7 PM Precip end 1 AM Precip amount 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 LAL 1 1 1 1 LASI/Haines 4 4 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 3200 2200 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL) 1700 700 Transport wnd (mph) SW 15 S 5 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 48000 11000 Dispersion 22 Fair 2 Very poor Max LVORI 5 7 33ft wind-AM(mph) SW 10 G17 LGT/VAR 33ft wind-PM(mph) W 14 G25 SW 8 G18 LGT/VAR LGT/VAR Remarks...None. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Light winds. .SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the 50s. Light winds becoming west less than 10 mph in the afternoon. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Light winds. .MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the lower 40s to mid 50s. West winds less than 10 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the 40s to mid 50s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph. .THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Light winds. The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$ TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-162045- East Tennessee District West- 236 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018 Tonight Fri Fri Night Sat Cloud cover PCldy MClear MClear Clear Temp (24h trend) 26-31 (-10) 48-53 (+9) 30-35 54-59 RH % (24h trend) 91-96 (-3) 50-55 (-17) 93-98 52-57 20ft Wind-AM(mph) SW 6 G15 LGT/VAR 20ft Wind-PM(mph) W 8 G20 SW 5 LGT/VAR LGT/VAR Precip type None None None None Chance precip (%) 0 0 0 0 Precip duration Precip begin Precip end Precip amount 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 LAL 1 1 1 1 LASI/Haines 4 4 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 3000 2100 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL) 1700 900 Transport wnd (mph) SW 12 SW 7 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 36000 14700 Dispersion 17 Gen poor 5 Very poor Max LVORI 5 6 33ft wind-AM(mph) SW 8 G15 LGT/VAR 33ft wind-PM(mph) W 10 G20 SW 7 LGT/VAR LGT/VAR Remarks...None. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Light winds. .SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Light winds becoming west less than 10 mph in the afternoon. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows near 40. West winds less than 10 mph. .MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Highs in the 40s to mid 50s. North winds less than 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 40s to mid 50s. North winds less than 10 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 40s to mid 50s. Light winds. .THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s. Light winds. The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$ TNZ077-079>085-097>101-162045- Cumberland District South- 236 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018 /136 PM CST Thu Nov 15 2018/ Tonight Fri Fri Night Sat Cloud cover PCldy MClear MClear Clear Temp (24h trend) 26-31 (-10) 50-55 (+13) 31-36 56-61 RH % (24h trend) 93-98 (-2) 48-53 (-21) 91-96 52-57 20ft Wind-AM(mph) LGT/VAR LGT/VAR 20ft Wind-PM(mph) W 7 G21 LGT/VAR LGT/VAR LGT/VAR Precip type None None None None Chance precip (%) 0 0 0 0 Precip duration Precip begin Precip end Precip amount 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 LAL 1 1 1 1 LASI/Haines 4 4 Mixing hgt(ft-MSL) 2800 2100 Mixing hgt(ft-AGL) 1600 1000 Transport wnd (mph) W 9 SW 7 Vent Rate (mph-ft) 25200 14700 Dispersion 13 Gen poor 6 Very poor Max LVORI 5 6 33ft wind-AM(mph) SW 5 LGT/VAR 33ft wind-PM(mph) W 10 G21 SW 5 LGT/VAR LGT/VAR Remarks...None. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows near 40. Light winds. .SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Light winds becoming west less than 10 mph in the afternoon. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows near 40. West winds less than 10 mph. .MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s. North winds less than 10 mph. .TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s. North winds less than 10 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s. East winds less than 10 mph. .THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 40. Highs in the 50s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph. *The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide. For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed. $$
Digital Tabular Forecast

Minimum Potential Accumulation Expect at least this much. This is what we see as the least amount of snow the storm can produce. This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount. Most Likely Snow Accumulation Represents our official snow forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The snowfall amounts are provided in point (single number) and ranges (1-2", 2-4", etc.). You can toggle between the two by hovering over the "Point" and "Range" text above the image. The point amount is our forecast but the range for the "most likely" represents the forecast uncertainty in predefined ranges. Maximum Potential Accumulation What you should be prepared for. This is what we see as the storm's maximum potential snowfall accumulation. This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.

Short to Long-Range Forecast

Day 1 Forecast Precipitation	Day 2 Forecast Precipitation


Day 3 Forecast Precipitation	Days 1-3 Forecast Precipitation


Days 6-10
Temperature	Precipitation


Days 8-14
TEMPERATURE	PRECIPITATION