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Local Research, Studies, and Event Reviews


The staff at WFO Morristown, Tennessee is actively working to improve the forecast, services, messaging, and operations across the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians.  This page illustrates some of the studies done and offers a glance into some of the research that we are incorporating into our operations.  The research may be carried out internally (e.g. local studies, technical memos) or in conjunction with external agencies such as universities, research laboratories, or other government offices. Please contact the SOO regarding research relevant to Southern Appalachian weather or possible collaboration.  The research coordinator is David Hotz, Science and Operations Officer (SOO).

Published Articles Conference Presentations/Posters On-Line Articles Historical Events

 

-Published Articles-

Investigation of Atmospheric Rivers Impacting the Pigeon River Basin of the Southern Appalachian Mountains
by Douglas K. Miller*,aDavid HotzbJessica Wintonb, and Lukas Stewart, AMS Weather and Forecasting, March 2018.

Northwest Flow Snow Aspects of Hurricane Sandy
by
Steve KeightonDouglas K. MillerDavid HotzPatrick D. MooreL. Baker PerryLaurence G. Lee, and Daniel T. Martin. Preprints, AMS Weather and Forecasting, February 2016, Vol. 31, No. 1.

The Influence of Terrain during the 27 April 2011 Super Tornado Outbreak and 5 July 2012 Derecho around the Great Smoky Mountains National Park.
by David M. Gaffin. Preprints, 26th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Nashville, TN, American Meteorological Society, November 2012.

An Examination of Varying Supercell Environments over the Complex Terrain of the Eastern Tennessee River Valley.
by David M. Gaffin and David G. Hotz. National Weather Digest, National Weather Association, Vol. 35, December 2011.

An Examination of the Areal Extent of High Winds due to Mountain Waves along the Western Foothills of the Southern Appalachian Mountains.
by David M. Gaffin. National Weather Digest, National Weather Association, Vol. 35, August 2011.

The Impact of Terrain on Three Cases of Tornadogenesis in the Great Tennessee Valley
by Douglas G. Schneider. Electronic Journal of Operational Meteorology, National Weather Association, 2009-EJ11.

A Collaborative Approach to Study Northwest Flow Snow in the Southern Appalachians
by
Steve KeightonLaurence LeeBlair HollowayDavid HotzSteven ZubrickJeffrey HovisGary VotawL. Baker PerryGary LackmannSandra E. YuterCharles KonradDouglas Miller, and Brian Etherton. Weather and Forecasting, American Meteorological Society, July 2009, Vol 90, No. 7.

On High Winds and Foehn Warming associated with Mountain-Wave Events in the Western Foothills of the Southern Appalachian Mountains.
by David M. Gaffin. Weather and Forecasting, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 24, February 2009.

WFO Morristown, Tennessee Severe Weather Climatology.
by Sara Presnall and David Hotz. NOAA Technical Attachment, January 2009.

Synoptic Classification of Snowfall Events in the Great Smoky Mountains, USA.
by L. Baker Perry, Charles E. Konrad, David G. Hotz, and Laurence G. Lee. Preprints, 64th Eastern Snow Conf., St. Johns, Newfoundland, Canadian Meteorological Society, May 2007.

Foehn Winds that produced Large Temperature Differences near the Southern Appalachian Mountains.
by David M. Gaffin. Weather and Forecasting, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 22, February 2007.

North American Mesoscale (NAM) Model -- Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model Ozone Forecast Verification Study for Knoxville, Tennessee (Summer 2005).
by Loren C. Marz. NOAA Technical Memorandum (NWS SR-227), December 2006.

A Climatology of Synoptic Conditions associated with Significant Tornadoes across the Southern Appalachian Region.
by David M. Gaffin and Stephen S. Parker. Weather and Forecasting, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 21, October 2006.

A Comparison of MEX Guidance vs. Ensemble-based Temperature Forecasts.
by Loren C. Marz. NWS Southern Region Technical Attachment (SR/SSD 2004-07), October 2004.

An Unexpectedly Heavy and Complex Snowfall Event across the Southern Appalachian Region.
by David M. Gaffin, Stephen S. Parker, and Paul D. Kirkwood. Weather and Forecasting, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 18, April 2003.

An Evaluation of Temperature Variations around the Great Smoky Mountains National Park and their Associated Synoptic Weather Patterns.
by David M. Gaffin, David G. Hotz, and Terry I. Getz. NOAA Technical Memorandum (NWS SR-221), October 2002.

Unexpected Warming Induced by Foehn Winds in the Lee of the Smoky Mountains.
by David M. Gaffin. Weather and Forecasting, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 17, August 2002.

A Precipitation and Flood Climatology with Synoptic Features of Heavy Rainfall across the Southern Appalachian Mountains.
by David M. Gaffin and David G. Hotz. National Weather Digest, National Weather Association, Vol. 24, September 2000.

A Precipitation and Flash Flood Climatology of the WFO Morristown, Tennessee Hydrological Service Area.
by David M. Gaffin and David G. Hotz. NOAA Technical Memorandum (NWS SR-204), February 2000.

Wake Low Severe Wind Events in the Mississippi River Valley: A Case Study of Two Contrasting Events.
by David M. Gaffin. Weather and Forecasting, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 14, October 1999.

Winter Lightning in the Southeast U.S. and its Relation to Heavy Frozen Precipitation.
by Steve Hunter, Jeff Underwood, Ron Holle, and Tom Mote. Preprints, 19th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Minneapolis, MN, American Meteorological Society, September 1998.

NWSO Morristown, Tennessee Severe Weather Climatology.
by David Hotz and Joanne Labounty. NOAA Technical Memorandum (NWS SR-197), May 1998.

Major Tornado Outbreak in East Tennessee - May 18, 1995.
by Michael Buchanan, Terry Getz, and David Hotz. NWS Southern Region Technical Attachment (SR/SSD 96-48), November 1996.

WSR-88D Radar Rainfall Estimation: Capabilities, Limitations and Potential Improvements.
by Steve Hunter. National Weather Digest, National Weather Association, Vol. 20, June 1996.

A Comparison of High/Low Temperature Data for Two Locations in Southeast Tennessee and Southwest North Carolina.
by Hal Austin. NWS Southern Region Technical Attachment (SR/SSD 96-14), March 1996.

 

-Conference Presentations and Posters-

 

Climatology and Composite Analysis of Flood and Flash Flood Events across the Weather Forecast Office, Morristown Tennessee County Warning AreaRichard Allan Diegan III, NWS, Morristown, TN, American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting 2021

Using ArcGIS Online Story Maps to Analyze and Review High-Impact Weather EventsRichard Vincent Garuckas III, NWSFO, Morristown, TN; and C. D. Gant, R.A. Diegan III, J. Buckles, and B. Wasilewski, American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting 2021

Research, Preserve, and Protect the Last Remaining U.S. Weather Bureau Kiosk in the NationAndrew Moulton, NWS, Morristown, TN, American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting 2021

Using Cloud-Based GIS Solutions to Rapidly Develop and Deploy an IDSS Interface during a PandemicCharles D. Gant, NWSFO, Morristown, TN; and P. Camp,  American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting 2021

Radar and Mesoscale Analysis of Tornado Warnings Across East Tennessee in 2019, NOAA/NWS Richard Garuckas, Jeremy Buckles, Allan Diegan, Doug Schneider, and David Hotz, National Weather Association Conference, 2020

Mentoring, Employee-to-Employee Facilitation, and Employee Evaluation or New NWS Meteorologists, NOAA/NWS David Hotz, Morristown TN and NOAA/NWS , Christina Crowe, National Weather Association Conference, 2020

Research, Preserve, and Protect the Last Remaining U.S. Weather Bureau Kiosk in the Nation, Andrew Moulton, NOAA/NWS, Morristown, TN, National Weather Association Conference, 2020

Hurricane Dorian & Beyond: How GIS Mutual Aid and Cloudbased GIS improve IDSS for core partners with Charles Gant, National Weather Association Conference, 2020

The Near Storm Environment Awareness (NSEA) ProjectDavid Hotz, Morristown, TN; and A. Anderson, J. W. Dellicarpini, C. Entremont, S. J. Keighton, P. T. Marsh, J. S. Schaumann, M. sutton, T. J. Turnage, and J. R. Wiedenfeld, American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting 2021

Classification of Mountain Wave Events across the southern AppalachiansMatthew Anderson, NOAA/NWS/WFO-Morristown, TN, National Weather Association Conference, 2019

Terrain Effects on the Mountainburg, AR EF-2 Tornado: April 13, 2018, Matthew Anderson, NOAA/NWS/WFO-Morristown, TN, National Weather Association Conference, 2019

Terrain Effects on Frontogenesis and Snowfall Across the Southern Appalachians, Richard Diegan, NOAA/NWS, Morristown, TN,  National Weather Association Conference, 2019

East Tennessee Flash Flood Event of 6th February 2019, Richard Garuckas, NOAA National Weather Service, Morristown, TN, National Weather Association Conference, 2019

An Alternative Approach to Operational Flash Flood Forecasting Using HydroViewer Advanced, Charles Gant, NOAA/NWS WFO Morristown Tennessee, Morristown, TN, National Weather Association Conference, 2019

Situational Awareness Forecast Advisor Tool, David Hotz, National Weather Service, Morristown, TN, Abstract National Weather Association Conference, 2018

The "Battle at Bristol": An IDSS Review of the Highest Attended College Football GameMatthew E. Anderson, NOAA/NWS, Morristown, TN; and A. Pritchett, American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting 2018.

A Synoptic, Mesoscale and Radar Review for the Southeast Tennessee Tornado Outbreak of 30 November 2016Jeremy L. Buckles, NOAA/NWS, Morristown, TN; and E. M. Hagner and D. G. Hotz, American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting 2018

Evaluating the Near Storm Environment Awareness (NSEA) Applications at the Operations Proving Ground (OPG), David G. Hotz, NOAA/NWS, Morristown, TN; and A. R. Anderson, J. W. Dellicarpini, C. Entremont, S. J. Keighton, P. T. Marsh, J. S. Schaumann, M. sutton, T. J. Turnage, and J. R. Wiedenfeld, American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting 2018

A Synoptic, Mesoscale and Radar Review for the Southeast Tennessee Tornado Outbreak of 30 November 2016Jeremy BucklesNOAA/NWS/Forecast OfficeMorristownTN, Elyse Hagner, NOAA/NWS/Forecast Office, David Hotz, NOAA/NWS/Forecast Office, National Weather Association Conference, 2017

Making America's Most Visited National Park a Safer Place through Weather AwarenessRobert, Sam Roberts II, NOAA, Morristown, TN; and A. Pritchett, American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting 2017

Use of Total Lightning Data at Chattanooga, Tennessee Emergency Management For Public Safety and Decision MakingDavid G. Hotz, NOAA/NWS, Morristown, TN; and A. Cavallucci, G. T. Stano, and T. Reavley, American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting 2017

Investigation of Atmospheric Rivers Impacting the Pigeon River Basin of the Southern Appalachian Mountains, Jessica Winton, NWS, Morristown, TN; and D. G. Hotz, D. Miller, L. Stewart, A. P. Barros, J. Forsythe, and A. P. Biazar, American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting 2017

Near Storm Environment Awareness Project Purpose and Future Plans, David G. Hotz, NOAA/NWS, Morristown, TN, Jason Schaumann, NOAA/NWS, Springfield, MO, Aaron Anderson, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK, Mike Sutton and Thomas Turange, NOAA/NWS, Grand Rapids, MI, Stephen Keighton, NOAA/NWS, Blacksburg, VA, Joseph Dellicarpini, NOAA/NWS, Taunton, MA, Patrick Marsh, NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK, Jerry Wiedenfeld, NOAA/NWS, Milwaukee-Sullivan, WI,  National Weather Association Conference, 2016

Near Storm Environment Application, Aaron R. Anderson, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK, David Hotz, NOAA/NWS Morristown, TN, Jason Schaumann, NOAA/NWS, Springfield, MO, Mike Sutton and Thomas Turnage, NOAA/NWS, Grand Rapids, MI, National Weather Association Conference, 2016

The Influence of Atmospheric Rivers on Extreme Precipitation Events Observed in the Southern Appalachians Lukas Stewart and Douglas Miller, University of North Carolina Asheville, Asheville, NC, David Hotz, and Jessica Winton, NOAA/NWS, Morristown, TN,  National Weather Association Conference, 2016

The Effects of the ENSO Cycle on the Tornado Occurrence in East Tennessee, Jessica Winton, NOAA/NWS, Morristown, TN, National Weather Association Conference, 2016

Mesoscale Environmental Factors During the Camp Creek, Tennessee EF3 Tornado Event of April 27th, 2011, David G Hotz, National Weather Association Conference, 2015

The Incredible Winter Weather in February 2015 across the Eastern Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians, Andrew M Pritchett, National Weather Association Conference, 2015

The Tennessee Valley Historical Tornado Research Project, Tim Troutman, National Weather Association Conference, 2015  

The Critical Time Period in Which NWS Offices can Gain a Substantial Increase in Facebook Followers and Page Visits, Robert S. Roberts, NOAA/NWS, Morristown, TN, National Weather Association Conference, 2014

Comparing Three Orographic Heavy Rainfall Events across East Tennessee, David G. Hotz, NOAA/NWS, Morristown, TN, National Weather Association Conference, 2014

Northwest Flow Snow Aspects of Sandy. Part III: Moisture Anomalies and Trajectory Analysis, David Hotz, NOAA/National Weather Service, Morristown, TN
L. Baker Perry, Appalachian State University, Boone, NC, Steven Keighton, NOAA/National Weather Service, Blacksburg, VA, National Weather Association Conference, 2013

Use of Total Lightning Data at Chattanooga, Tennessee Emergency Management for Public Safety and Decision Making, David Hotz and Anthony Cavallucci, NOAA/NWS, Morristown, TN, Geoffrey Stano, NASA SPoRT/ENSCO Inc., Huntsville, AL, Tony Reavley, Director of Emergency Service and Homeland Security, Hamilton County Government, Chattanooga, TN, National Weather Association Conference, 2013

The Influence of Gravity Waves and Boundaries on an Unexpected Tornado in East Tennessee, Sam Roberts, NOAA/NWS, Morristown, TN, National Weather Association Conference, 2013

Incorporating Facebook into the Post Storm Assessment of the 27 April 2011 Tennessee Valley Tornado Outbreak. Timothy W. Troutman, NOAA/National Weather Service, Huntsville, AL, Douglas E.Schneider, Sam Roberts and Eric I. Holweg, NOAA/National Weather Service, Morristown, TN, National Weather Association Conference, 2011

Storm Monitor & Analysis Program. David Hotz, NOAA/National Weather Service, Morristown, TN, Jason Schaumann, NOAA/National Weather Service, Springfield, MO and Shawn O'Neill, NOAA/National Weather Service, Morristown, TN, National Weather Association Conference, 2011

NWS/SPC Watch Survey for Broadcasters.  Greg Carbin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK; Richard Okulski (NWA Councilor), NOAA/NWS, Memphis, TN; and George Mathews, NOAA/NWS, Knoxville/Tri-Cities, TN, National Weather Association Conference, 2008

 

-On-Line Articles-

 

What Are Mountain Waves?
by David Gaffin.

A Dense Fog Study for Knoxville Tennessee.
by Wayne Shaffer.

Killer Flooding in Carter County TN.
by Steve Hunter and Brian Boyd.

 

-Historical Events Information-


Videotaped presentations on the 27 April 2011 Super Tornado Outbreak in east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.
by David Gaffin, David Hotz, Tim Doyle, Tim Troutman, George Mathews, and Howard Waldron. Smoky Mountain Chapter of the American Meteorological Society, 18 July 2011.

Videotaped presentations on the 2 March 2012 Tornado Outbreak in east Tennessee.
by David Hotz, George Mathews, and Eric Holweg. Smoky Mountain Chapter of the American Meteorological Society, 17 September 2012.