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Last Map Update: Wed, Jul 15, 2026 at 10:42:40 am MST

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National Weather Service NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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National Weather Service Albuquerque, NM

National Weather Service NWS Tucson Arizona

Extreme Heat Warning

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Extreme Heat Warning

Cooler Temperatures Arrive Late Week

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will form over the high terrain north northeast of the Phoenix area and over portions of Southeast AZ, then likely send outflows towards South-Central AZ in the mid-late afternoon. While some storms may form along/behind outflows as the enter the lower elevation of South-Central AZ, we may see a collision of outflows from the northeast and southeast, meeting somewhere likely south and west of the Phoenix Metro, bringing the best chances and conditionally better coverage of lower desert storms if it happens. All the hazards including wind gusts neat T-storms upwards of 35 mph, blowing dust (especially south/west of the Phoenix area), and locally heavy rainfall are on the table.

A weather disturbance will act to increase the coverage of thunderstorms across the lower deserts later this week. Better moisture levels will overspread the region, and thunderstorm hazards are likely to transition from severe winds & dust to primarily flash flooding. Shower/storm activity is also likely to linger into the overnight hours and possibly even the morning on at least one of these days.

A weather disturbance will support increasing coverage of storms across the state, especially Wednesday and Thursday when a moist environment will allow for efficient, heavy rainfall with thunderstorms. As such, the probabilities for excessive rainfall leading to rapid onset flooding will increase.

High pressure aloft, high humidity levels, and mostly sunny skies will allow for above normal temperatures the next few days for portions of Southwest AZ and Southeast CA. Overnight lows in the 80s will be common through Thursday morning in some of the hottest areas. The high humidity will make afternoon highs feel hotter than the actual air temperatures, with Heat Indices forecast upwards of 110° to as much as 120° in the Imperial Valley. An Extreme Heat Warning will be in effect through Thursday.

High pressure over the region in combination with slight day to day variations in moisture/cloud cover will allow temperatures to fluctuate near to above normal through the middle of the week, leading to widespread Moderate HeatRisk. Practice smart heat safety by drinking plenty of water and electrolytes and reducing your time outside during the afternoons. Cooler temperatures are then expected to arrive late week as a disturbance impinges on the Desert Southwest, bringing chances for widespread rainfall and more persistent cloud cover.