Snow Melt Flooding

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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Pueblo CO
1238 PM MDT Thu Apr 24 2025

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 04/24/2025 - 07/23/2025

: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Arkansas River
near Leadville 9.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
at Salida 8.0 9.0 10.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
near Wellsville 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
at Parkdale 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
at Canon City 10.0 12.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
at Portland 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
above Pueblo 8.0 9.0 11.0 : 16 13 <5 <5 <5 <5
near Avondale 7.0 10.0 12.0 : 52 25 8 <5 <5 <5
near Nepesta 16.5 17.5 18.5 : 33 <5 10 <5 6 <5
near Fowler 13.5 14.0 15.0 : 6 8 <5 6 <5 <5
near Rocky Ford 10.0 11.0 12.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
at La Junta 11.0 13.0 15.0 : 65 40 25 7 <5 <5
at Lamar 11.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 9 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Fountain Creek
at CO Springs 11.5 16.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
near Fountain 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
near Pinon 12.0 14.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
at Pueblo 10.0 12.0 13.5 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:St. Charles River
at Vineland 12.0 15.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Purgatoire River
at Madrid 7.0 9.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
below Trinidad Lk 10.0 12.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
at Trinidad 11.0 12.0 13.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
near Las Animas 9.0 12.0 15.0 : 20 10 8 5 <5 <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 04/24/2025 - 07/23/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Arkansas River
near Leadville 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.7
at Salida 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8
near Wellsville 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.9 5.2
at Parkdale 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.9 4.2
at Canon City 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.6 6.7 7.0 7.4
at Portland 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.4 4.2
above Pueblo 3.6 3.6 5.4 6.9 7.9 8.1 8.3
near Avondale 4.3 4.6 5.7 7.1 8.4 9.5 10.8
near Nepesta 13.9 14.2 15.1 16.0 16.8 17.5 19.1
near Fowler 11.0 11.2 11.6 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.9
near Rocky Ford 2.5 2.8 3.7 4.5 5.2 5.7 7.5
at La Junta 8.0 8.6 10.5 11.8 13.0 13.7 14.7
at Lamar 8.3 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.8 10.1 10.8
:Fountain Creek
at CO Springs 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.7 7.7 8.5 9.0
near Fountain 7.9 8.1 8.4 8.7 9.3 10.8 12.7
near Pinon 3.9 4.0 4.3 4.6 5.6 7.9 9.0
at Pueblo 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.7 3.4 4.9 6.4
:St. Charles River
at Vineland 3.5 3.6 4.1 5.1 6.2 8.8 10.9
:Purgatoire River
at Madrid 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 4.0
below Trinidad Lk 4.8 4.8 5.6 6.6 7.4 8.0 8.9
at Trinidad 1.4 1.7 2.2 2.7 3.2 4.1 5.9
near Las Animas 3.4 3.6 4.5 5.9 8.4 10.5 14.5

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/pub for more weather and water
information.

The next outlook will be issued Thu May 8, 2025.

$$