National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce


43rd NOAA Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop

23-25 October 2018, Santa Barbara, CA

Climate Prediction S&T Digest


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A hybrid dynamic-statistical approach to link predictive understanding to improve seasonal prediction of rainfall anomalies at the regional scale (INVITED)

    by Rong Fu, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, UCLA; Nelon Fernando, Sudip Chakraborty

Mechanisms for the formation of super El Niños

    by Tim Li, University of Hawaii;

The influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on the eastern Andes low-level jet and precipitation in South America

    by Charles Jones, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA

Enhanced ocean monitoring products using ensemble ocean reanalyses

    by Yan Xue, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP; C. Wen, A. Kumar, E. Becker

Untangling Seasonal Predictions over California during 2015/16 El Nino and the Parable of Blind Men and an Elephant: What next?

    by Arun Kumar, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP; Mingyue Chen

Water vapor budget in atmospheric rivers: A multi-model evaluation

    by Bin Guan, Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, UCLA; Duane E.Waliser, and F. Martin Ralph

Using the onset dynamics to understand the ENSO complexity

    by Jin-Yi Yu, University of California, Irvine, CA

Responses of global atmospheric circulation to climate indices based on APCC hindcast data

    by Daeun Jeong, APEC Climate Center, Busan, South Korea; Yun-Young Lee

Seamless Coupled Prediction System (SCoPS): Assessment of the APCC in-house model real-time seasonal forecast

    by A-Young Lim, APEC Climate Center, Busan, South Korea; Young-Mi Min, Suryun Ham

Recent slow melt of Arctic summer sea ice due to tropical Pacific SST changes

    by Ian Baxter, University of California - Santa Barbara; Qinghua Ding, and Axel Schweiger

Developing an experimental week 3-4 severe weather outlook for the United States

    by Hui Wang, Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA; Alima Diawara, Arun Kumar, and David DeWitt


Towards increased utilization of weather forecast products in agriculture

    by Aston Chipanshi, Agroclimate, Geomatics and Earth Observation, Science & Technology Branch, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada; Mark Berry, Marilee Pregitzer and Hai Lin

Development of an hourly analysis of surface air temperature over the global land

    by Yutong Pan, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, and Innovim, LLC; Pingping Xie

Evaluation week3/4 forecast for Canadian GEPS

    by Qin Zhang, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP; Liwei Jia, Adam Allgood, Dan Collins and Jon Gottschalck

Subseasonal tropical cyclone prediction at CPC: A new forecasting tool for weeks 1-4

    by Lindsey N. Long, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, and Innovim, LLC


The influence of tropical forecast errors on higher latitude predictions (INVITED)

    by Juliana Dias, University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/ESRL/PSD; George Kiladis, and Maria Gehne

Improve CFS week 3~4 precipitation and 2m temperature forecasts with neural network technique

    by Yun Fan, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP; Chung-Yu Wu, Jon Gottschalck, and Vladimir Krasnopolsky

Dynamical and thermodynamical influences of the maritime continent on ENSO evolution

    by Tuantuan Zhang, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China; Bohua Huang, Song Yang, Junwen Chen, and Xingwen Jiang

Recent Developments and Ongoing Challenges in Operational Seasonal Prediction at CPC

    by Stephen Baxter, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP

Uncertainties in the El Niño response of precipitation over the US west coast

    by Mingyue Chen, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP; Arun Kumar

How well do the climate model simulate the internal variability in Arctic sea ice decline

    by Pengfei Zhang, University of California at Santa Barbara; Qinghua Ding, Michelle L'Heureux, Kirstin Harnos, Nathaniel Johnson, and Mitch Bushuk

Investigations on moisture transports, budgets and sources responsible for the decadal variability of precipitation in southern China

    by Hu Yamin, Guangdong Climate Center, Guangzhou, China; Si Dong, and Liu Yanju

The skills of the probabilistic forecast for meteorological drought over the United States

    by Li Xu, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, and Innovim LLC., Greenbelt, Maryland; Kingtse C. Mo

Evaluation of the national water model for potential application in the NLDAS drought monitor

    by Jesse Meng, Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, and IMSG


Change in the leading mode of North America's wintertime stationary eddies   (INVITED)

    by Yu-Tang Chien and Simon S-Y Wang, Dept. Plants, Soils and Climate, Utah State University, Logan, UT

Overview of the 2017-18 La Niña and El Niño Watch in mid-2018

    by Michelle L'Heureux, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP

Operational probabilistic drought prediction to improve the seasonal drought outlook

    by Kingtse Mo, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP; Li Xu

Predictability of U.S. Northern Great Plains summertime precipitation extremes

    by Andrew Hoell, NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division; Klaus Wolter, Flavio Lehner, Judith Perlwitz, and Jon Eischeid

The Evolution and Status of the Northern Plains Drought and the Ongoing Southern Drought

    by Muthuvel Chelliah, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP

Water Cycle in the Subtropical North Atlantic, Sea Surface Salinity, and its Implication for Extreme Precipitation Events in the US Midwest

    by Laifang Li, Duke University; Raymond W. Schmitt, Caroline C. Ummenhofer, Adwait Sahasrabhojanee, Chi Zhang, and Qiuhong Tang

The Floods in Equatorial East Africa during MAM 2018 rainfall season

    by Wassila M. Thiaw, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP; P. H. Kamsu-Tamo, and E. Bekele

Santa Ana events in Southern California: Global sale teleconnections and potential S2S predictability

    by Tom Murphree, Department of Meteorology, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; Emily Szasz, and Kellen Jones

Flash drought characteristics and prediction

    by L. Gwen Chen, Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA; Jon Gottschalck, Rich Tinker, Adam Hartman, David Miskus, and Anthony Artusa

Quantifying the agreement between observed and simulated extratropical modes of interannual variability

    by Jiwoo Lee, Program for climate model diagnosis and intercomparison (PCMDI), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL); Kenneth R. Sperber, Peter J. Gleckler, C. J. W. Bonfils, and Karl E. Taylor

Influence of positive IOD events on northeastward extension of Tibetan high in boreal summer to early autumn

    by Kazuto Takemura, Tokyo Climate Center, Japan Meteorological Agency; Akihiko Shimpo

The 2018 US heat season and the performance of the SEHOS forecasting tool at the CPC

    by Evan Oswald, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, and Innovim, LLC

Characterizing impact of concurrent hot and dry spell events across the crucial breadbasket regions

    by Ariel Avgi and Ehsan Najafi, NOAA Center for Earth System Sciences and Remote Sensing Technologies (NOAA-CREST), CUNY CREST Institute, New York


Joined CanSIPS-CFSv2 seasonal forecasts

    by Marko Markovic, Environment and Climate Change, Canada

An Assessment of Prediction and Predictability of NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)

    by Yuejian Zhu, Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP

The Development of the next NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)

    by Xiaqiong Zhou, Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP; Yuejian Zhu and Dingchen Hou

Toward improving short-lead monthly forecast

    by Peitao Peng, Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP; Mike Halpert, Stephen Baxter and Mike Charles

The Aleutian Low - Beaufort Sea Anticyclone: A new climate index for seasonal melt of the Pacific Arctic

    by Christopher Cox, CIRES/NOAA; Robert S. Stone, David C. Douglas, Diane Stanitski, and Michael R. Gallagher

Water in the Arabian Peninsula

    by Muge Komurcu, Center for Global Change Science Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Adam Schlosser

CWB CFS one-tier hindcast analysis and forecast verification

    by Tzu-Yu Wu, Meteorology Research and Development Center, Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan, and Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Central University, Taiwan; Hann-Ming Henry Juang, Yun-Lan Chen, Pang-Yen Liu, Shin-I Lin, Jen-Her Chen , and Mong-Ming Lu

CPC's new consolidated hybrid statistical/dynamical model for seasonal prediction of temperature and precipitation

    by Daniel Barandiaran Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, and Innovim, LLC

NOAA's MAPP-CTB projects update: Community R2O contributions to the Improvement of operational S2S climate prediction

    by Jiayu Zhou, Office of Science and Technology Integration, NOAA/NWS; David DeWitt

Understanding the space-varying trends in global extreme precipitation

    by Saman Armal, Department of Civil Engineering, NOAA-Cooperative Center for Earth System Sciences and Remote Sensing Technologies, Center for Water Resources and Environmental Research, City University of New York (City College), New York; Reza Khanbilvardi



Oral Session Presentations

Poster Session Presentations

Digest Photo Gallery

2018 CDPW Photo Album   (Click "Get Macromedia Flash" to view the album.)