Tucson Monthly & Seasonal Reviews for 2026

The January outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for Tucson favored above-normal monthly mean temperatures (53% above vs. 14% below) and equal chances for below-, near-, or above-normal total precipitation amounts.

The new year opened on a wet note as a Pacific weather system moved across the area, bringing widespread and occasional heavy showers on New Year's Day. Rainfall totals across the metro area ranged from 0.10" to 0.75". The daily average dew point value on New Year's Day of 55° tied the January record which previously occurred on January 22nd & 23rd in 2009. Dry conditions prevailed from the 2nd through the 6th with high temperatures mainly in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

A stronger and colder Pacific weather system brought widespread valley rain and mountain snow to the area on the 7th and 8th. Two-day rainfall totals ranged from 0.50" to 1.25" with localized higher amounts up to 1.75". The bulk of this rain occurred on the 7th which was a dreary cool day with little temperature difference between the high (upper 40s to lower 50s) and low temperature (mid to upper 40s) with the airport recording a high of 51° & a low of 48°. This 3° difference tied a January record for the smallest difference between the high & low temperature. The previous occurrences were on January 3, 1931 (high 50°, low 47°) & January 6, 1939 (high 54°, low 51°). The 51°/48° high/low temperature combination also is the first such combination in the historical record for Tucson dating back to 1895. Mt. Lemmon recorded 12 to 14 inches of snow for this event.

A colder air mass settled in across the area on the 9th & 10th with widespread low temperatures in the 30s on the 9th and upper 20s to mid 30s on the 10th. The airport recorded its coldest low temperature of the month on the 10th at 34°. Gusty east winds were around on the 11th with areas that are susceptible to east winds, like Sabino Canyon, Tanque Verde and the airport recording gusts between 45 and 55 mph. The airport recorded a wind gust of 52 mph which is the 2nd highest wind gust recorded in January since 1970. The highest wind gust in January at the airport since 1970 is 55 mph on January 5, 1995.

Warmer temperatures returned to the area from the 13th to the 22nd where highs were in the 70s and lows were mostly in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

The last weather system of the month brought showers and mountain snow to the area on the 23rd and 24th. Rainfall totals for this 2-day period were mostly between 0.10" and 0.50" with localized spots up to 0.75". Mt. Lemmon recorded 4 to 6 inches of snow for this event.

The remainder of the month was dry with near or slightly above normal high temperatures.

The monthly average temperature of 55.3° is 1.7° above normal and ranks as the 10th warmest January on record. Temperature extremes for the month ranged from a high of 75° on the 14th, 15th & 31st to a low of 34° on the 10th. Although most of the metro area recorded a freezing low temperature this month, the airport did not. Thus for the 7th time on record and the third time this century (2003 & 2010), the airport didn't record a freezing low temperature in January.

Rainfall amounts varied across the metro area (per sources like rainlog.org, Pima County Regional Flood Control District, and CoCoRaHS), generally ranging from 0.75" to 2.00", with isolated totals reaching up 2.75". The Tucson International airport, the official recording location, recorded 1.70" which is nearly nine-tenths of an inch above normal and ranks as the 21st wettest January on record, tied with 1983.

The first four months of the hydrological water year, October through January, have been rather wet with 5.18" being recorded at the airport. This ranks as the 21st wettest first four months of the water year on record.

One month remains in climatological Winter and so far it has been much warmer (57.7° or +4.3°) and wetter (2.15" or +0.25") than normal.

Looking ahead into February

A weak La Niña will continue in the equatorial Pacific through the end of Winter. The February outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for Tucson favors above normal monthly mean temperatures (43% above vs. 24% below) and equal chances for below-, near-, or above-normal total precipitation amounts.

Dominated by high pressure for most of the month, February set a new milestone as the warmest on record.

The monthly average temperature of 62.6° is 6.4° above normal and ranks as the warmest February on record. Temperature extremes for the month ranged from a high of 89° on the 27th & 28th to a low of 36° on the 21st. This is the 28th February on record in which the official site didn't record a low temperature of 32° or colder. Daily record temperatures were set on the 5th (warm low; 57°, old record 54° in 1935 & 1978), 27th (high; 89°, old record 88° in 1906 & 1986) and 28th (high; 89°, old record 85° in 1986, 1988 & 2009).

Rainfall amounts varied across the metro area (per sources like rainlog.org, Pima County Regional Flood Control District, and CoCoRaHS), generally ranging from 0.10" to 0.40", with isolated totals reaching up 0.60". The Tucson International airport, the official recording location, recorded 0.14" which seven-tenths of an inch below normal and ranks as the 27th driest February on record.

The first five months of the hydrological water year, October through February, have been rather wet with 5.32" being recorded at the airport. This ranks as the 33rd wettest first five months of the water year on record.

La Niña conditions were forecast for the 2025-26 Winter season. Under the majority of La Niña conditions, a drier than normal winter typically occurs across the desert southwest. The Climate Prediction Center temperature and precipitation outlooks for Tucson called for the following:

• a 53% chance that the seasonal mean temperatures will be above normal
• a 14% chance that the seasonal mean temperatures will be below normal
• a 37% chance that the seasonal total precipitation will be below normal
• a 30% chance that the seasonal total precipitation will be above normal

The monthly historical breakdowns were:

• December: Warmest and 49th driest on record
• January: 10th warmest and 21st wettest on record
• February: Warmest and 27th driest on record

The seasonal average temperature of 59.3° is 5.0° above normal and goes into the record books as the WARMEST Winter on record, shattering the old record of 57.9° from the Winter of 2017-18. Temperature extremes ranged from a high of 89° on February 27th and 28th to a low of 34° on January 10th. This is the FIRST Winter on record, since 1894, that a freezing low temperature wasn't recorded at the official location in Tucson. There were 13 daily record temperatures set (7 for highs and 6 for warm lows), which is the most in Winter since 12 were recorded in Winter 1962-63.

Rainfall amounts varied across the metro area (per sources like rainlog.org, Pima County Regional Flood Control District, and CoCoRaHS), ranging from 0.75" to 3.00", with isolated totals between 3.00" & 5.00". The Tucson International airport, the official recording location, recorded 2.15" which is nearly a half-inch below normal and ranks as the 62nd wettest Winter season on record. The bulk of the Winter season rain occurred in January.

The yearly mean temperature of 58.7°, which is 3.8° above normal, ranks as the 2nd warmest January/February period on record. On the precipitation side the Tucson International Airport, the official recording location in Tucson, has recorded 1.84" which is 0.16" above normal and ranks as the 50th wettest January/February period on record.

The Climate Prediction Center's March outlook for Tucson favors a warmer-than-average month, showing a 49% chance of above-normal monthly mean temperatures compared to only an 18% chance of below-normal. For precipitation, the outlook indicated equal chances for below-, near-, or above-normal monthly total precipitation amounts.

The Climate Prediction Center's Spring outlook for Tucson favors a warmer-than-average season, showing a 58% chance of above-normal seasonal mean temperatures compared to only a 9% chance of below-normal. For precipitation, the outlook favors a drier-than-average season, showing a 50% chance of below-normal seasonal total precipitation amounts compared to a 17% chance of above-normal.