Weather Briefing

NPW | WSW | WCN | SVR | TOR | SVS | LSR | FFW | FFS | FLW | FLS 
CLIOMA | CLILNK | CLIOFK | CLIOAX | RTPOAX | RWRNE | RWRIA
 

Area Forecast Discussion

                        
414
FXUS63 KOAX 011134
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
Issued by National Weather Service Hastings NE
634 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and patchy fog this morning will move off to the east
  by mid-morning.

- Breezy today with convectively induced showers possible during
  the afternoon hours today.

- Another round of off and on scattered showers tonight into
  Friday.

- Warmer and pleasant weekend for most of the area. Highs in the
  70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 448 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

Scattered off and on showers have been present much of the
overnight hours, and they are beginning to exit eastern Nebraska
and impact east central Iowa. This activity has not had any
lightning, as instability is severely lacking. As the showers
exit, patchy fog has developed. Some of this fog has been dense
at times with visibility less than 1/4 of a mile. As the cold
front moves in from the west, fog is expected to dissipate.

Scattered showers will continue to move eastward and should be
mostly moved into central Iowa by mid morning.  The cold front
will continue to track across the area this morning causing
winds to become northwesterly. As the sun rises, mixing will
cause the winds to become breezy. Although temperatures today
will max out near 70 degrees, morning temperatures in the 50s,
and the blustery northwesterly winds will make the day not as
pleasant as simply looking at the temperature may indicate.
Additionally, a few convectively induced scattered showers may
develop during the afternoon hours. Cloud cover will be partly
to mostly cloudy during the daytime hours.

Tonight and into Friday yet another wave will move southeast
across the area and will bring another round of scattered off
and on showers to the region. Northwesterly winds on Friday
won`t be quite as strong as today. Highs will be in the 60s.

A pattern change comes in for the weekend, with upper level
ridging building in. This will bring warmer return flow to the
area. Highs on Saturday will be near 70s degrees with light
winds and mostly sunny skies. Temps for the weekend are
expected to be in the 70s. Sunday will be similar, but with
slightly more southeasterly winds, especially in northeastern
Nebraska. Highs in the mid 70s are expected.

Next week will bring another unsettled weather pattern as an
upper low digs into the southwestern US. The medium range
guidance indicates that this upper low will become cut off from
the main flow and spin across the four corners region. There are
a few pieces of energy that may eject off and travel
northeastward bringing multiple rounds and chances for
precipitation. The better chance for higher amounts of rain look
to be much further west across the High Plains, especially in
Kansas. The details for this period are uncertain, and it is a
period to watch.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

IFR to MVFR conditions present this morning. Low stratus and
some patchy fog has been present overnight at all of the
terminals. This morning, ceilings are generally IFR to MVFR.
The cold front has already moved through at both KOFK and KLNK
and will move through KOMA in the next couple hours. This will
cause visibilities to improve, but low stratus is expected to
persist through much of the day.
Northwesterly winds will become breezy during day and
convectively induced showers are possible during the afternoon
hours.

Expect VFR conditions to return this evening into the overnight
hours, despite another round of showers possible with the next
disturbance.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...00
AVIATION...00



                

Hazardous Weather Outlook

                        
880
FLUS43 KOAX 011022
HWOOAX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
Issued by National Weather Service Hastings NE
522 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-020030-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
522 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

$$

Billings Wright



                

Zone Forecast

                        
535
FPUS53 KOAX 011212
ZFPOAX

Zone Forecasts for Eastern Nebraska and Southwest Iowa
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

NEZ052-012000-
Douglas-
Including the city of Omaha
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
.TONIGHT...
.FRIDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SATURDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
.MONDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
.TUESDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
.WEDNESDAY...

$$

NEZ053-012000-
Sarpy-
Including the cities of Bellevue, Papillion, and La Vista
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
.TONIGHT...
.FRIDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SATURDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
.MONDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
.TUESDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
.WEDNESDAY...

$$

IAZ069-012000-
Pottawattamie-
Including the city of Council Bluffs
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
.TONIGHT...
.FRIDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SATURDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
.MONDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
.TUESDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
.WEDNESDAY...

$$

NEZ066-012000-
Lancaster-
Including the city of Lincoln
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
.TONIGHT...
.FRIDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SATURDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
.MONDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
.TUESDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
.WEDNESDAY...

$$

NEZ031-012000-
Madison-
Including the city of Norfolk
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
.TONIGHT...
.FRIDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SATURDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
.MONDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
.TUESDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
.WEDNESDAY...

$$

NEZ011-012000-
Knox-
Including the cities of Creighton, Bloomfield, Crofton, Wausa,
Verdigre, and Niobrara
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
.TONIGHT...
.FRIDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SATURDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
.MONDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
.TUESDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
.WEDNESDAY...

$$

NEZ012-012000-
Cedar-
Including the cities of Hartington, Laurel, Randolph,
and Coleridge
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
.TONIGHT...
.FRIDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SATURDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
.MONDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
.TUESDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
.WEDNESDAY...

$$

NEZ016-012000-
Antelope-
Including the cities of Neligh and Elgin
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
.TONIGHT...
.FRIDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SATURDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
.MONDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
.TUESDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
.WEDNESDAY...

$$

NEZ017-012000-
Pierce-
Including the cities of Pierce, Plainview, and Osmond
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
.TONIGHT...
.FRIDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SATURDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
.MONDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
.TUESDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
.WEDNESDAY...

$$

NEZ018-012000-
Wayne-
Including the city of Wayne
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
.TONIGHT...
.FRIDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SATURDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
.MONDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
.TUESDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
.WEDNESDAY...

$$

NEZ015-012000-
Thurston-
Including the cities of Pender, Macy, Walthill, and Winnebago
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
.TONIGHT...
.FRIDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SATURDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
.MONDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
.TUESDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
.WEDNESDAY...

$$

NEZ032-012000-
Stanton-
Including the city of Stanton
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
.TONIGHT...
.FRIDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SATURDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
.MONDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
.TUESDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
.WEDNESDAY...

$$

NEZ033-012000-
Cuming-
Including the cities of West Point and Wisner
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
.TONIGHT...
.FRIDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SATURDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
.MONDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
.TUESDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
.WEDNESDAY...

$$

NEZ034-012000-
Burt-
Including the cities of Tekamah, Oakland, Lyons, and Decatur
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
.TONIGHT...
.FRIDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SATURDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
.MONDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
.TUESDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
.WEDNESDAY...

$$

NEZ030-012000-
Boone-
Including the cities of Albion and St. Edward
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
.TONIGHT...
.FRIDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SATURDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
.MONDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
.TUESDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
.WEDNESDAY...

$$

NEZ042-012000-
Platte-
Including the city of Columbus
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
.TONIGHT...
.FRIDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SATURDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
.MONDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
.TUESDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
.WEDNESDAY...

$$

NEZ043-012000-
Colfax-
Including the city of Schuyler
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
.TONIGHT...
.FRIDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SATURDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
.MONDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
.TUESDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
.WEDNESDAY...

$$

NEZ044-012000-
Dodge-
Including the city of Fremont
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
.TONIGHT...
.FRIDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SATURDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
.MONDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
.TUESDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
.WEDNESDAY...

$$

NEZ045-012000-
Washington-
Including the city of Blair
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
.TONIGHT...
.FRIDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SATURDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
.MONDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
.TUESDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
.WEDNESDAY...

$$

NEZ050-012000-
Butler-
Including the city of David City
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
.TONIGHT...
.FRIDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SATURDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
.MONDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
.TUESDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
.WEDNESDAY...

$$

NEZ051-012000-
Saunders-
Including the cities of Wahoo, Ashland, and Yutan
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
.TONIGHT...
.FRIDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SATURDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
.MONDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
.TUESDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
.WEDNESDAY...

$$

NEZ065-012000-
Seward-
Including the cities of Seward and Milford
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
.TONIGHT...
.FRIDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SATURDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
.MONDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
.TUESDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
.WEDNESDAY...

$$

NEZ078-012000-
Saline-
Including the cities of Crete and Wilber
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
.TONIGHT...
.FRIDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SATURDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
.MONDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
.TUESDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
.WEDNESDAY...

$$

NEZ088-012000-
Jefferson-
Including the city of Fairbury
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
.TONIGHT...
.FRIDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SATURDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
.MONDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
.TUESDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
.WEDNESDAY...

$$

NEZ089-012000-
Gage-
Including the city of Beatrice
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
.TONIGHT...
.FRIDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SATURDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
.MONDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
.TUESDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
.WEDNESDAY...

$$

NEZ067-012000-
Cass-
Including the city of Plattsmouth
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
.TONIGHT...
.FRIDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SATURDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
.MONDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
.TUESDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
.WEDNESDAY...

$$

NEZ068-012000-
Otoe-
Including the city of Nebraska City
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
.TONIGHT...
.FRIDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SATURDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
.MONDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
.TUESDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
.WEDNESDAY...

$$

NEZ090-012000-
Johnson-
Including the cities of Tecumseh and Sterling
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
.TONIGHT...
.FRIDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SATURDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
.MONDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
.TUESDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
.WEDNESDAY...

$$

NEZ092-012000-
Pawnee-
Including the cities of Pawnee City and Table Rock
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
.TONIGHT...
.FRIDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SATURDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
.MONDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
.TUESDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
.WEDNESDAY...

$$

NEZ091-012000-
Nemaha-
Including the city of Auburn
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
.TONIGHT...
.FRIDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SATURDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
.MONDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
.TUESDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
.WEDNESDAY...

$$

NEZ093-012000-
Richardson-
Including the city of Falls City
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
.TONIGHT...
.FRIDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SATURDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
.MONDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
.TUESDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
.WEDNESDAY...

$$

IAZ043-012000-
Monona-
Including the cities of Onawa and Mapleton
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
.TONIGHT...
.FRIDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SATURDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
.MONDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
.TUESDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
.WEDNESDAY...

$$

IAZ055-012000-
Harrison-
Including the cities of Missouri Valley, Woodbine, Logan,
and Dunlap
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
.TONIGHT...
.FRIDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SATURDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
.MONDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
.TUESDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
.WEDNESDAY...

$$

IAZ056-012000-
Shelby-
Including the city of Harlan
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
.TONIGHT...
.FRIDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SATURDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
.MONDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
.TUESDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
.WEDNESDAY...

$$

IAZ079-012000-
Mills-
Including the city of Glenwood
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
.TONIGHT...
.FRIDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SATURDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
.MONDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
.TUESDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
.WEDNESDAY...

$$

IAZ080-012000-
Montgomery-
Including the city of Red Oak
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
.TONIGHT...
.FRIDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SATURDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
.MONDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
.TUESDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
.WEDNESDAY...

$$

IAZ090-012000-
Fremont-
Including the cities of Sidney, Hamburg, Tabor, and Farragut
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
.TONIGHT...
.FRIDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SATURDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
.MONDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
.TUESDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
.WEDNESDAY...

$$

IAZ091-012000-
Page-
Including the cities of Clarinda and Shenandoah
712 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

.TODAY...
.TONIGHT...
.FRIDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
.SATURDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
.SUNDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
.MONDAY...
.MONDAY NIGHT...
.TUESDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
.WEDNESDAY...

$$




                

RWRNE | RWRIA

Valley Radar
North Platte Radar	Hastings Radar
Sioux Falls Radar	Des Moines Radar
Topeka Radar	Pleasant Hill Radar

• Radar Homepage
• Local KOAX Radar | Radar Lite Loop
• Regional Radar | Loop
• National Radar Loop | CRH Source 

Day 1 Outlook	Day 1 Tornado	Day 1 Wind	Day 1 Hail
Day 2 Outlook	Day 2 Probabilistic	Day 3 Outlook	Day 3 Probabilistic
Day 1 WFO Scale	Day 1 NE Scale	Day 1 IA Scale	Day 1 FEMA Scale
Day 2 WFO Scale	Day 2 NE Scale	Day 2 IA Scale	Day 2 FEMA Scale
Day 3 WFO Scale	Day 3 NE Scale	Day 3 IA Scale	Day 3 FEMA Scale
Days 4-8 Outlook	MCDs	Today's Storm Reports	Yesterday's Reports
WWA	Current Watches	Reports in Last 3 Hours

• SPC Home
• Graphical LSRs
• NWSChat LSR

Day 1 Outlook

                        
960
ACUS01 KWNS 010559
SWODY1
SPC AC 010558

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NY...WRN PA...WRN WV...MUCH OF
OH...SERN IN...CNTRL AND ERN KY...MIDDLE TN...CNTRL/SRN
MS...NRN/CNTRL LA...SRN AR...SRN OK...NRN TX...

...SUMMARY...
Lines and/or clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely
to impact parts of the Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes, parts of
the lower Mississippi Valley, and the southern Great Plains this
afternoon through tonight.

...Discussion...
It appears that an amplifying mid/upper flow regime across the
northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into North America
will undergo further amplification while continuing to develop
inland through this period.  This will include a prominent ridge
overspreading the Canadian Rockies and northern U.S. intermountain
region later today through tonight, perhaps with an embedded high
evolving to the east of the Cascades.

Downstream, a notable short wave trough is forecast to continue
digging to the lee of the northern U.S. Rockies, preceded by a short
wave trough which has recently emerged from the Southwest.  Models
suggest that the lead perturbation will undergo shearing, but it may
still provide support for modest deepening of a surface low
northeast of the middle Mississippi Valley through lower Great Lakes
region by late tonight.

To the southwest of this low, conglomerate outflow from extensive
convective development of prior days will at least initially precede
and obscure any trailing surface front.  By 12Z this morning, it
appears that the leading edge of this outflow will be in the process
 of advancing eastward through the lower Ohio Valley, while stalling
and weakening across the lower Mississippi Valley through upper
Texas coastal plain.  It remains a bit unclear the extent to which
the surface outflow, residual cloud cover and rain will impact
destabilization and convective potential later today.  It is
possible that this could impact a sizable area centered across parts
of the Mid South.

...Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes...
Uncertainty exists concerning the possible influence of convective
outflow and cloud cover on destabilization, and spread is evident
among the various model output concerning the synoptic evolution.
However, broad surface troughing overspreading the region during the
day may provide the focus for the highest probabilities of vigorous
thunderstorm development.  Boundary-layer moistening (including mid
60s F surface dew points) and warming may become sufficient to
support mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-2000+ J/kg, in the
presence of 30-50 kt south to southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb
layer.  This environment may become conducive to organizing lines or
clusters of storms, and perhaps a few supercell structures, posing a
risk of severe wind and hail, with at least some potential for
tornadoes, during the afternoon and evening.

...Lower Mississippi Valley vicinity...
Large-scale forcing for ascent to support convective development
remains unclear, on top of the possible lingering influence of
convective outflow, cloud cover and rain.  However, the NAM and
Rapid Refresh suggest that a zone of strengthening differential
heating may develop across the Ark-La-Tex into lower Mississippi
Valley during the day, providing a focus for strong destabilization
beneath steep-lapse rates associated with remnant elevated
mixed-layer air.  Aided by boundary-layer moisture characterized by
surface dew points near 70F, large CAPE on the order of 2000-3000+
J/kg is forecast beneath modest westerly mid-level flow.  Perhaps
aided by lift associated with low-level warm advection, organizing
convection posing a risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts
appears possible.  This may include supercell structures, at least
initially, and eventually an upscale growing, east-southeastward
propagating cluster.

...Raton Mesa into southern Great Plains Red River vicinity...
Models indicate another zone of potentially strong convective
development may evolve late this afternoon into tonight, as the
boundary layer moistens and heats beneath the northern periphery of
a plume of elevated mixed-layer air.  It appears that this will
advect east/east-southeast of the southern Rockies, near the
southern periphery of the mid-level troughing digging to the lee of
the northern Rockies.  Models suggest that a smaller-scale embedded
perturbation may be accompanied by increasing convective development
across and east-southeast of the Raton Mesa vicinity by early this
evening.  Aided by updraft inflow of increasing instability across
the Texas Panhandle into areas near/north of the Red River, there
appears potential for the evolution of an upscale growing cluster.
The 01/00Z NAM, in particular, generates a convective perturbation
that would appear to include 70+ kt westerly rear inflow (in the
850-700 mb layer) across Oklahoma by late tonight.  Based on other
output, this appears an outlier, but the evolution of a convective
cluster posing a risk for severe hail and wind appears possible.

..Kerr/Weinman.. 05/01/2025

$$



                

Day 1 QPF	Day 2 QPF	Day 3 QPF
Day 1 Excessive Rain	Day 2 Excessive Rain	Day 3 Excessive Rain
Day 1 Excessive Rain OAX	Day 2 Excessive Rain OAX	Day 3 Excessive Rain OAX
Day 1 Excessive Rain NE	Day 2 Excessive Rain NE	Day 3 Excessive Rain NE
Day 1 Excessive Rain IA	Day 2 Excessive Rain IA	Day 3 Excessive Rain IA
Day 1 Excessive Rain FEMA 7	Day 2 Excessive Rain FEMA 7	Day 3 Excessive Rain FEMA 7
Day 4/5 QPF	5 Day Total QPF	Day 6/7 QPF

• WPC QPF Home
• WPC Excessive Rain