Severe Thunderstorms and Heavy Rain Across the Central US; Wintry Mix in the Northern Plains and Northeast

Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding are possible across the central U.S. through Saturday. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all possible. There is an increased threat for wildfire development in the southern to central High Plains. A wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain are forecast across portions of the northern Plains and central New England into early Friday morning. Read More >

Northwestern Plateau

December-January-February Precipitation

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On average, the relationship between El Niño and above normal precipitation in New Mexico is strongest in the southwest corner of the state and weakest in northern portions of the state, particularly along the Colorado border. Our two stations (Aztec Ruins National Monument and Chaco Canyon) in northwest New Mexico support this pattern with a smaller average increase in precipitation of around 120%. For both stations, winter precipitation exhibits a more consistent signal of increased precipitation during El Niño events following the PDO regime shift.

A description of the graphs is located at the bottom of the page.

winter precip for aztec during el nino events

Percent of Longterm Average for all El Niño Events =121% , for strong El Niño Events = 114%

winter precip for chaco canyon during el nino events

Percent of Longterm Average for all El Niño Events = 127% , for strong El Niño Events = 126%

Precipitation values for 3-month periods during 18 El Niño Events since 1949-50 are plotted with respect to the long term precipitation average, listed to the right of the graph. The precipitation totals for each 3-month period are plotted above or below each bar. Years for which the El Niño Event was considered to be strong are colored in dark green. "M" represents a 3-month period with missing data. Finally, the percents of long term normal for all El Niño events and for the strong El Niño events are listed below each graph.

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Severe Thunderstorms and Heavy Rain Across the Central US; Wintry Mix in the Northern Plains and Northeast

NWS ABQ - El Nino Winter Precipitation for CD1