Spring Breakup Outlook

                        
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FGAK78 PACR 242312 CCA
ESFAK

Hydrologic Outlook
NWS Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center Anchorage AK
300 PM AKDT FRI APR 24 2026

...BREAKUP OUTLOOK IS NOW IN A GRAPHICAL FORMAT...

UPDATES FROM PREVIOUS SPRING BREAKUP OUTLOOK: Snowpack and ice
conditions remain largely unchanged from the previous outlook. The
most notable change is in the spring temperature outlook, which now
favors above-average temperatures through early May. Despite this
shift toward warmer conditions, the spring transition has been
relatively delayed so far, with cooler than normal conditions
persisting longer than typical acrcoss most of the region. This
delay is helping maintain ice cover for now, but it also sets the
stage for a potentially more rapid transition once sustained warming
occurs. Overall, this combination continues to increase the
likelihood of a dynamic breakup.


BRIEF SUMMARY:
The breakup flooding potential is above average
across parts of mainland Alaska. In the Interior, the primary areas
of concern are the upper Yukon and lower Tanana Rivers, along with
the middle Kuskokwim River near Crooked Creek and Aniak/Kalskag.
Portions of the middle and lower Yukon, lower Kuskokwim, and the
North Slope also face an elevated risk. This increased threat is
driven by a combination of above-average snowpack, average to above-
average ice thickness, high freeze-up levels, rough ice or freeze-up
ice jams reported in several Interior locations, and the potential
for delayed snowmelt from below-average April temperatures. In
contrast, the Koyukuk, Kobuk, and upper Kuskokwim rivers, as well as
rivers across Southcentral Alaska, have a lower breakup flood threat
due to below-average snowpack. Communities are encouraged to review
their flood response plans and preparedness actions in advance
breakup.


FULL GRAPHICAL OUTLOOK:

The graphical Alaska Spring Breakup Outlook products are posted to
the Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center website at:
www.weather.gov/aprfc/breakupProducts

A direct link to the latest graphical product is:
www.weather.gov/media/aprfc/BreakupProducts/ESFAK_ACR_20260417.pdf

ADDITIONAL DETAILS:

The Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center has updated the format of
its breakup outlook and summary products. The new format has moved
to a graphical presentation, away from the historically text-based
product. The graphical Alaska Spring Breakup Outlook products are
posted to the Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center website at:
www.weather.gov/aprfc/breakupProducts

NEXT ISSUANCE:

May 1, 2026



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