Graphical Hydro Meteorological Discussion

072
FXAK68 PAFC 260117
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
517 PM AKDT Sat Apr 25 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Tuesday)...

After a morning socked in with fog, Anchorage and surrounding
areas finally cleared enough to enjoy periods of sunshine during
the afternoon hours today. Daytime highs across Southcentral have
been very pleasant and in the upper 40s/lower 50s with light
winds, thanks to weak subsidence behind a departing wave of low
pressure this morning. For the rest of this evening conditions
across Southcentral should remain mild with little in the way of
notable weather. High clouds have already begun to spread into
Southcentral from the next approaching upper trough to the west,
and clouds will continue to expand over the rest of Southcentral
into tonight along with areas of light rain.

Water vapor imagery shows a large upper low is pushing into the
Aleutian Chain this evening, with a front already spreading
eastward into the Alaska Peninsula. A new trough will lift along
this front and track across across Kodiak Island and the western
Gulf late tomorrow morning, before overspreading the Kenai
Peninsula and Prince William Sound through Monday. Precipitation
chances over the next 24 hours will mostly be confined to the
coast and Western Alaska Range. However, late Sunday into Monday
precipitation in the form of rain will lift northward into the
Susitna Valley with more widespread rain chances arriving to
Southcentral on Tuesday as yet another trough lifts across the
region.

-BL

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Monday)...

Key messages:

- An unseasonably strong, Hurricane Force low is approaching Adak
and Atka this afternoon.

- A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Nikolski and Unalaska from
this afternoon through tomorrow afternoon, where wind gusts of
up to 60-75 mph are expected. A High Wind Warning remains in
effect for Adak and Atka from this evening through tomorrow
afternoon for wind gusts up to 80 mph.

- Widespread Gale to Storm Force winds, with Hurricane Force gusts
and seas up to 40 ft, will impact much of the marine outlook
area through the end of the weekend.

Discussion:

Satellite imagery over the past several hours has revealed rapid
organization of a quickly deepening low currently approaching Adak
from the south-southwest, with a large swath of dense, cold cloud
tops spiraling out from the low`s center. There is also evidence
of a developing sting jet feature immediately to the south of the
low. A clear warm/dry intrusion wrapping into this system is now
visible on water vapor imagery, indicative of strong sinking
motion and warming/drying of cold air aloft as it wraps around the
southern side of the storm system. While there have been no
recent passes from remote instruments (such as scatterometer) to
give a more objective indication of wind speeds around the low,
there is good chance Hurricane Force sustained winds are already
developing just to the south of the low center. This corridor of
high winds will soon move over marine waters south of Adak and
Atka as the low crosses over from the Pacific to Bering side,
around the same time the central minimum pressure reaches maximum
strength, dipping to approximately 955 mb as it moves into the
southern Bering Sea. Along the low`s attendant front, a swath of
Gale to low-end Storm Force winds and a band of rain/snow is
progressing quickly north along the eastern parts of the
Aleutians, and will soon approach the AKPen and Pribilof Islands.

In terms of the forecast for the next few days, things are looking
very on track with few changes to the expectations for this
unseasonably strong low pressure system as it continues north into
the Bering Sea. Adak and Atka are still expected to see westerly
winds gusts as strong as 80 mph as the core of strongest winds
moves across on the south side of the low later tonight into
Sunday. Meanwhile, gusty southeast winds as strong as 55 to 65
mph moving through Nikolski and Unalaska will become south-
southwesterly behind the low`s front later tonight into Sunday
morning. The second round of strong winds for the eastern parts of
the Aleutians will likely be worse for Nikolski, where gusts
approaching 75 mph are likely at peak intensity early on Sunday
morning. Unalaska will likely be far enough away from the low
track to avoid the worst of the winds with the second round coming
in behind the frontal passage. Still, expect 50 to 60 mph to be
common as the low progresses north through Sunday afternoon,
especially near Captain`s Bay.

Looking to the north and west, the Bering low`s front will move
quickly past the Pribilofs this evening into tonight, sending a
quick round of southeast winds gusting up to 60 mph across the
islands along with wet snow transitioning to rain. The front will
weaken some as it continues into Southwest late tonight into
Sunday, but will still be strong enough to produce winds gusts as
strong as 40 to 50 mph, especially along the coast. Precipitation
along the front will likely begin as snow across the Kuskokwim
Delta Coast, but should transition to mostly rain as temperatures
warm throughout the day on Sunday.

Between Monday and Tuesday, the low will stall out west of the
Pribilof Islands as it becomes vertically stacked and cut off
from the Pacific jet moving to the south. Steadier rain and snow
along the low`s front will give way to widespread rain and snow
showers as the low steadily weakens in place. Winds along the
Aleutians and across the Bering Sea will steadily decrease as the
low weakens, dropping from Storm Force to Gale Force sustained
Sunday night, then below Gale Force by Tuesday afternoon.

-AS

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

For the latter half of the week, Southcentral and Southwest
Alaska will remain in an active and unsettled weather pattern.
While the heaviest precipitation from the week`s first storm
should taper off by early Wednesday, a secondary disturbance is
expected to develop in the Gulf of Alaska. This system will likely
push a second round of rain and mountain snow into the region
starting late early Thursday and lingering through early Friday.
There is still some typical long-range uncertainty regarding the
exact track of this storm, which will ultimately determine which
specific coastal or inland areas see the most persistent rainfall.

Despite the damp conditions, a broad shift in airflow from the
south will trigger a noticeable warming trend across the state. As
this milder Pacific are moves in, daytime highs in the lower-
elevations areas are expected to clime into the 40s and 50s. This
temperature spike means that any precipitation at sea level will
almost certainly fall as rain, while the snow line will retreat to
higher elevations.

As the weekend arrives, the region stays within this active
stretch, with continued cloudy skies and intermittent showers
rather than a total clearing. While the individual weather systems
may weaken towards the weekend, the combination of lingering
moisture and warmer temperatures will persist across the southern
half of the state.


&&

.AVIATION...


PANC...Vfr conditions are expected to persist through Sunday
afternoon. Southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds are expected to be
over the airport this evening and then diminish overnight before
redeveloping late morning Sunday. These winds will help dry out
the surface and, combined with more cloud cover, are expected to
keep fog from developing like it did this morning.

&&


$$

056
FXAK69 PAFG 252209
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
209 PM AKDT Sat Apr 25 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather returns to the Bering Sea coastline late tonight
through Sunday as broad southerly flow spreads north across the
remainder of Northern Alaska. A warm front is lifting north across
the Brooks range early this afternoon then from southeast to
northwest across the North Slope/Arctic Coast tonight and Sunday.
This front brings the warmest air mass of the season so far ahead of
a rapidly deepening low pressure that tracks into the southern
Bering Sea this evening. An occluded front shifts northeast along
the West Coast and St. Lawrence Island on Sunday bringing a 6-12
hour of steady rain/snow mix and easterly winds gusting up to 45
mph. Another wave of energy tracks north on Tuesday bringing a cool
front resulting in mainly rain showers and slightly cooler
temperatures for Wednesday into Thursday before southerly flow
returns by Friday. A few inches of wet snow are possible with that
cool front, mainly above ~2500 ft elevation.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Persistent chinook flow keeps highs near to above average, in the
50s and low 60s across the interior valleys.

- A cool front brings scattered rain showers Tuesday afternoon with
the most intense cells bringing potential for graupel and perhaps
the first few lightning strikes of the season.

- Southerly gap winds gradually increase on Sunday with gusts up to
50 mph possible Sunday night before diminishing on Monday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Another Bering Sea low brings easterly winds gusting up to 45 mph
for the YK Delta Coast and southern Seward late Saturday night
before subsiding Sunday night with wet snow at higher elevations.

- Easterly winds up to 45 mph bring potential for an ice shove (ivu)
across Maknik Lagoon on Sunday or Sunday night combined with up to 3
inches of wet snow for much of St. Lawrence Island.

- Rain and snow showers persist through the week. High temperatures
range from the 40s and low 50s in the Interior to mid and upper 30s
along the coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Areas of light snow and east wind gusts up to 35 mph in Point Lay
today. Wind weakens tonight then return Sunday evening.

- High temperatures in the southern Brooks Range rise into the 40s
to near 50. The northern Brooks Range will range from the mid 20s to
mid 30s. The Arctic Coast will be in the low to mid 20s with Point
Hope being in the upper 30s to near 40.

- A cool front brings snow chances from west to east Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday with accumulations possible for Atigun
Pass.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
The overall pattern won`t be changing much over the next week. An
upper low will remain over the Bering Sea with an upper high over
western Canada. However, there are two frontal systems bringing more
focused wind/precipitation chances over the next 5 days. The first
front is an occluding front that moves onto the YK Delta coastline
early Sunday morning ahead of a deeply wrapped up ~955 mb low across
the southern Bering Sea. The second frontal system is more of a cold
front associated with an energetic shortwave pivoting around the
Bering low that lifts across northern Alaska Tuesday/Wednesday.

The occluding frontal system weakens as it moves into our area and
is moving into a seasonably warm air mass suggesting lesser impacts.
However, the combination of 6+ hours of steady cold rain or perhaps
very wet snow and easterly winds gusting up to 45 mph confirm that
it will be lousy weather as the front moves across the YK Delta,
Seward Peninsula, and St. Lawrence Island. The potential for an ice
shove (ivu) continues to be monitored across Maknik Lagoon. The
southwest cape up to Powooilak Camp is also exposed, but sea ice is
farther offshore and may not be able to reach the coast before winds
weaken.

The next front brings mainly rain chances to many of the same
locations Monday and Monday night before shifting northeast across
the remainder of northern Alaska Tuesday through Wednesday. The
upper level disturbance is energetic and negatively tilted implying
strong dynamic forcing that could support convective showers with
charge separation for the first lightning strikes of the season.
Even if thunderstorms don`t materialize, graupel is definitely
possible with the stronger cells Tuesday afternoon/evening. Further
south across the Alaska Range, southerly gaps winds and high
elevation snow are looking more likely. Snow levels appear to be
2500-3000 ft suggesting the Parks/Richardson highways won`t be
impacted, but heavy wet snow and strong winds may overload the
existing snow pack resulting in some avalanche potential.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
The extended forecast continues to feature troughing across the
Bering and ridging across western Canada resulting in southerly flow
over most of the state. The two most noteworthy features appear to
be the frontal boundary lifting across the Brooks Range Tuesday
night into Wednesday and the second is a low pressure system
tracking north near the YK Delta Wednesday night and Thursday. EFI
guidance is highlighting potential for unseasonable QPF and snowfall
across portions of the Brooks Range and North Slope with the frontal
boundary Tuesday night/Wednesday. EFI guidance indicates a similar
combination of unseasonable QPF/snowfall potential across the YK
Delta and St. Lawrence Island Wednesday night through Thursday
night. Elsewhere, southerly winds across the Central Interior/West
Coast and gusty winds through the Alaska Range passes remain
possible, especially Thursday/Friday when the WPC is highlighting
potential for high winds.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802-817-853.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-805-806-852.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850.
Gale Warning for PKZ851.
Gale Warning for PKZ854.
&&

$$

994
FXAK67 PAJK 252319
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
319 PM AKDT Sat Apr 25 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Benign pattern continues with nocturnal marine layer developing
overnight and diurnal afternoon sea breezes through early next
week.

- Warm temperatures expected through the weekend, with high
temperatures in the 50s in the northern panhandle and into the
60s across the southern panhandle.

-Sprinkles and isolated rain showers possible for parts of SE AK
Sunday into Monday. Light rain amounts expected Wednesday and
Thursday over much of the area.



&&

.SHORT TERM.../ Through Monday night / Light Wind situation
(generally 15 kt or less) across the panhandle expected to
continued through Sunday. Cloud deck that spread in from the the
gulf with the tops of the clouds at 4000 feet or less specifically
through Cross Sound, Icy Strait to Juneau and over Chichagof
Island. The cloud deck is breaking up some allowing breaks to form
around Gustavus and Juneau, however, expect it close back up this
evening, possibly clear again Sunday but not expecting it to do
so very much. At the mid levels an impulse of energy will move
across the gulf and into the panhandle later Sunday and Monday.
This may start a few areas of light rain north of Frederick Sound,
amounts are are expected to be very light.


.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Friday/
Drier conditions remain into the start of next week as high
pressure remains over the gulf. Unfortunately, Yakutat and the NE
gulf will continue to be most likely to see low clouds and
drizzle/light rain from a continued marine layer. Even though they
are most likely to continue to see low clouds, precipitation
totals remain low through mid week. Starting mid week, an area of
low pressure disrupts the ridge bringing widespread precipitation
back to the panhandle Wednesday into Thursday. At this time,
although precipitation chances increase, low rain amounts are
anticipated. Areas south of Yakutat have a 70 to 80% chance that
24 hour rain totals remain below 0.25 inches. Even Yakutat is most
likely to only see around 0.3 to 0.6 inches of rain in a 24 hour
period. Although there is still some disagreement, behind this
weak system a short break looks to return for a couple of days
before onshore flow strengthens again.

Wind during this time remains on the lighter side with late morning
to afternoon sea breezes developing. These sea breezes can slightly
increase winds by about 5 kts, but will mainly create changes in
wind direction. Otherwise, the strongest marine winds remain along
Clarence Strait into Dixon Entrance with fresh to strong breezes of
17 to 27 kts possible. Even these winds are anticipated to diminish
Monday into Tuesday as the ridge moves southward.

Looking at temperatures, with dry and partly sunny conditions
anticipated, near average to slightly warmer than average
temperatures will continue. Maximum temperatures will continue to
remain in the 50s through the start of the week. Even as cloud cover
returns, max temperatures might drop by a few degrees, but are likely
to remain near average in the low to mid 50s across SE AK. Highest
temperatures will be over inland areas.

&&

.AVIATION...The marine layer that affected the Icy Strait corridor
has largely dissipated or otherwise lifted to be a cloud deck AoA
3000 ft as of Saturday afternoon. Yakutat is in a similar
situation, while all other sites across the panhandle have cleared
out with only afternoon sea breezes to account for. Once again,
these sea breezes will drop off close to sunset. This will also
harken the reformation of a marine layer that is expected to push
into the inner channels tonight into Sunday and stick around
through the morning bringing more MVFR conditions. With a westerly
wind shift in the northern gulf, Yakutat is also expected to see
a shift to slightly onshore flow later Saturday tonight which
would push the marine layer onshore there as well. No significant
LLWS concerns through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Little change to the forecast
as ridging continues over the eastern gulf, keeping coastal winds
relatively calm with the exception of the southeastern gulf coast
from Cape Decision through Dixon Entrance and the far northern
coast to the west of Icy Bay. A low marine layer has been sitting
offshore through the past few days and will continue to push
inland through the coastal gulf waters through the weekend, which
may reduce visibility overnight. The southeastern gulf coast is
seeing northwesterly fresh breezes with wave heights of 7 to 10 ft
flow through Dixon Entrance and down Hecate Strait, which will
persist through the weekend. The western half of the gulf is
seeing southerly fresh to strong breezes turning southeasterly
with winds weakening and turning westerly late Saturday. This
pattern will persist through Saturday before the stronger
northwesterly winds in the southeastern gulf begin to extend north
along the entire eastern gulf coast, with strong breezes flowing
into Cross Sound. Wave heights will follow suit, increasing to 7
to 9 ft in the areas of strongest winds. Southwesterly swell of 6
to 9 ft at a period of 10 to 13 seconds will decrease to 3 to 4 ft
by the end of the weekend.

Inside (Inner Channels): Inner channel winds remain under 15 kt
through the weekend, with the exception of a few places. The
southern inner channels will see northwesterly fresh breezes
persist through the remainder of weekend, with the strongest
areas being along the coast of Prince of Wales Island, the
Southern Chatham and Sumner Straits channel entrances, and flowing
out of southern Clarence Strait. When the swath of stronger winds
pushes north along the coast Sunday, fresh breezes will begin to
flow into Cross Sound and down Icy Strait. Overnight, a low
marine layer will attempt to push into channel entrances such as
Cross Sound and down the Icy Strait Corridor, reaching further and
further inland each night. Patchy fog may be forming under the
lower cloud decks of the marine layer.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-644-652-661-662.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...Bezenek

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