Graphical Hydro Meteorological Discussion

940
FXAK68 PAFC 230123
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
423 PM AKST Sun Feb 22 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Wednesday)...

The dominant weather feature in Alaska is a strong high amplitude
ridge which extends from the north-central Pacific to the eastern
Bering Sea and over the southern AK mainland. Some high clouds
are moving over top of the ridge into Southcentral. Otherwise,
mostly sunny skies and dry conditions prevail. Temperatures are
chilly for this time of year, in the teens to 20s for of the low
elevations. Much warmer air moving up and over the ridge is
arriving at higher elevations of Southcentral this afternoon, with
temperatures rising above freezing for elevations above 3000 feet.
Localized gap winds persist through the typical coastal communities
(Kodiak City, Seward, Whittier, Valdez), supported by tight
pressure gradients between a strong surface high extending from
Southwest AK to the Interior and lower pressure in the Gulf of
Alaska. With the warmer temperatures aloft, a combination of
downslope warming and mixing down of warmer air is leading to some
balmy temperatures, with Kodiak City in the mid to upper 40s and
Seward/Whittier in the mid to upper 30s.

The upper ridge axis will gradually rotate southeastward, pushing
back down into the North Pacific by late Monday. Low level
temperatures will continue to warm through Monday, with the
western Chugach Mountains and Kenai Mountains rising well above
freezing. Some of the warmest air will move across Kodiak Island.
With continued gusty westerly winds, temperatures could approach
50 degrees, which would set a daily record high. Valley locations
across Southcentral will largely remain below freezing. Meanwhile,
a series of upper level vorticity-maxima riding along the top of
the ridge will cross interior Southcentral Monday, leading to
light snowfall along the Alaska Range and spreading southward into
the northern Susitna Valley and northern Copper Basin. Cold air
advection and gradual amplification of the upper level flow will
cause snow to spread southward to the Talkeetna Mountains and
southern Copper Valley Monday afternoon through Monday night. The
deep westerly flow will favor the Wrangell Mountains and central
to eastern Copper Basin for snow accumulation. Winter Weather
Advisories have been hoisted from Glennallen northeastward along
the Tok Cutoff for the heaviest snow and highest accumulation.
Some very light snow may make it down to Anchorage and the Mat
Valley Monday night. The best chance of some very light accumulation
will be right along and near the mountains. Though the airmass
will be cooling as precipitation arrives, there could be a mix
with rain and freezing rain to start.

A series of much stronger short-waves will amplify the pattern
further Tuesday through Wednesday, with short-waves digging
southeastward across Southcentral. Similar to last week, very cold
Arctic air will surge across Southcentral and the Gulf Tuesday
through Wednesday. The initial arrival of the Arctic front Tuesday
morning will likely lead to areas of light snow. However, expect
drying out from west to east across the region through the day
Tuesday. The biggest impact will once again be the winds. Similar
to last week, the low level flow will be out of the northwest,
which will initially favor Kodiak Island and the western Gulf as
well as Seward and Whittier for some of the strongest winds. As a
low settles over the northeast Gulf (near Yakutat) Wednesday,
winds will really ramp up in Valdez/Thompson Pass and the Copper
River Delta. As winds first arrive, blowing snow and reduced
visibilities will be a threat, especially for locations which
receive fresh snowfall (including the Copper Valley). This airmass
looks even colder than the one that moved in last week, so despite
the widespread windy conditions would expect temperatures to fall
more quickly, with single digits to teens commonplace by
Wednesday and wind chills dropping well below zero for much of
the region.

-SEB

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

*A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Kuskokwim Delta
and western Kuskokwim Valley from 5AM to 10 PM Monday for total
ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch. This advisory has
been expanded today to include the Goodnews Bay area.

*A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Naknek, King
Salmon, Iliamna, and the northern Alaska Peninsula from 11AM
Monday to 3AM Tuesday for snow accumulations up to one inch and
ice accumulations around one tenth of an inch.

Discussion:

The 500 mb pattern is characterized by impressive ridging
extending from south of the Aleutians and points northeastward
over mainland Alaska. While several shortwaves are riding over top
the ridge, the main weather player will be an arctic trough
working southward down the western Alaska coastline Monday
morning, which will flatten the ridge and force it to take an
northeast to southwest tilt. Ahead of the system, relatively warm
westerly to southwesterly flow from a strong surface high south of
the Aleutians working in tandem with the incoming frontal wave
will moderate temperatures at the precipitation onset. The latest
guidance has trended, on average, about 5 degrees warmer than
yesterday as precipitation moves across the region, with some of
the MOS warming areas like Bethel well into the upper 30s for a
time Monday afternoon. If this is indeed the case and warmer air
than originally thought filters into the region, ice amounts will
be around a glaze to a few hundredths of an inch at best.
Freezing rain is also a self limiting precipitation type, meaning
the latent heat release during the freezing process will help to
warm the surrounding airmass. Also, if more sleet falls before a
potential changeover to rain, that will also limit ice
accumulation. The column should rapidly and dynamically cool as
the arctic trough works its way over the region and mix or
transition any lingering precipitation to a short period of light
snow as the system departs Tuesday morning.

Another change from the previous forecast package is that with a
slower progression of the arctic trough, a slower (3 hours or so)
onset of precipitation is to be expected as well. The trough digs
and amplifies through Tuesday afternoon and takes a neutral tilt
by Wednesday morning. Brutally cold arctic air is expected to
filter in behind this system, and temperatures will drop to the
single digits in the Kuskokwim Delta by Tuesday before all of
Southwest drops even colder later in the workweek.

-AM

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Thursday through
Sunday)...

Southwest and Southcentral Alaska will be entrenched within a
much colder airmass over the latter half of next week. Behind a
passing arctic trough on Tuesday and Wednesday, single digit to
below zero temperatures will be widespread Thursday morning, with
parts of the Kuskokwim Delta and Lower Kuskokwim Valley seeing
temperatures as low as 20 below. Because we`re moving into the
later winter months, the increasing diurnal cycle will likely play
a role in minimizing colder temperatures across Southcentral,
though parts of the Copper River Basin could still flirt with cold
weather advisory criteria within any clearing.

Gusty winds and gusty gap winds should be ongoing Thursday
morning across the Alaska Peninsula and for much of Southcentral.
Winds will slowly diminish into the latter half of the Thursday.
Beyond Thursday, weak troughing will remain from the ALCAN border
into Southwest Alaska. Winds will be milder Friday into the
weekend as flow become more zonal.

All of the active weather will flip to the Aleutians Friday into
the weekend as a North Pacific trough and several small waves
overspread the chain Friday into the weekend. Expect widespread
rain chances with the gustiest winds residing over the Western and
Central Aleutians. By late Saturday into Sunday, what remains of
a colder airmass over the interior will spill across Southwest
Alaska into the Bering before temperature moderate and warm late
Sunday.

BL

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light north winds will persist through
the TAF period. Gusty northerly winds are expected on Tuesday.

&&
$$

207
FXAK69 PAFG 222142
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1242 PM AKST Sun Feb 22 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A significant multi-day winter storm is ongoing across Northern
Alaska. Conditions improve along the West Coast as the storm moves
further inland. Snow has begun across the Interior and continues
through Tuesday. The heaviest snow is expected Monday for the
Fairbanks North Star Borough. Late Sunday through Wednesday high
pressure builds into the region following the storm causing
temperatures to rapidly cool across the West Coast Monday and
across the rest of the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Colder,
drier, and mostly calmer conditions are expected for the latter
half of the week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- A significant multi-day winter storm is ongoing in the Central
Interior and is bringing considerable snowfall Sunday through
early Wednesday to the region and particularly the Fairbanks
North Star Borough and the Western Alaska Range. Snowfall totals
for the event of 12 to 18 inches expected for the Fairbanks
North Star Borough and Western Alaska Range. Winter Storm
Warnings remain in effect. Lighter snow accumulations are
expected further east where Winter Weather Advisories remain in
effect.

- Gusty westerly winds through the Tanana Valley Tuesday may lead
to periods of blowing snow, particularly east of Delta Junction
where winds could gust up to 40 mph.

- Temperatures warm into the double digits above 0 with the heavy
snowfall peaking in the 20s Monday afternoon. Temperatures then
cool Tuesday through the end of the week following the storm
with lows falling well into the double digits below 0.

- Large amounts of snow on frozen rivers and streams is leading to
areas of water overflowing the ice. Use caution while travel
along or on frozen waterways.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- A significant multi-day winter storm is ongoing and is bringing
considerable snowfall through Sunday night to the West Coast and
Western Interior, particularly from the Seward Peninsula north.
12 to 18 inches of storm total snow is expected for the Western
Brooks Range through Kotzebue and the Noatak Valley. Winter
Storm Warnings remain in effect.

- Weakening winds have allowed conditions to improve along the
Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea Coasts. The Blizzard Warnings have
ended. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for these
areas.

- Winds shift northwesterly and strengthen late Sunday into Monday
from St. Lawrence Island north through the Bering Strait and
east through the Chukchi Sea Coast. These winds coincide with
the ending of the remaining precipitation. Gusty northwesterly
winds may lead to periods of blowing snow through the Bering
Strait and Chukchi Sea Coast Monday through Wednesday.

- Temperatures warming into the low to mid 30s from the Seward
Peninsula south through Sunday will cause much of the
precipitation along the Lower Yukon, Yukon Delta, and St.
Lawrence Island to fall as rain. Some rain and wintry mix is
expected for the Seward Peninsula as well. Rain could freeze on
contact with cold surfaces on the ground causing slippery
conditions. Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect for potential
ice accumulations from this rain and wintry mix.

- Temperatures cool rapidly Monday into Tuesday as Arctic air from
Siberia moves over the region. Temperatures fall below 0 by
Tuesday and into the teens and 20s below 0 by Wednesday for most
places. Any standing water left from the rain/wintry mix will
freeze.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- A significant multi-day winter storm is ongoing across the North
Slope and is bringing heavy snow and periods of blizzard
conditions across the North Slope through early Monday. 6 to 11
inches of total snow expected West of Point Barrow and 5 to 9
inches total expected east of Point Barrow. Greater totals of 10
to 16 inches possible for the Eastern Brooks Range, primarily
east of the Dalton Highway. Winter Storm Warnings have been
issued.

- Southerly winds shift westerly along the Arctic Coast late
Sunday into Monday. Periods of blizzard conditions are possible
along the Arctic Coast Sunday through Monday, particularly east
of Prudhoe Bay.

- Temperatures warm significantly into the teens and 20s above 0
across the North Slope as this storm passes through the area
Sunday. Temperatures then cool Monday into Tuesday back into the
double digits below 0.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
For Sunday through Wednesday.
At the start of the forecast period Sunday, a series of generally
weak surface lows (1006 to 1018 millibars) continues to pull
significant moisture into Northern Alaska from as far south as
Hawaii. A strong 1038 millibar high pressure in the North Pacific
forces the moisture to move further west keeping the moisture from
completely overwhelming the colder air across the state limiting
non-snow precipitation to the West Coast, particularly from the
Seward Peninsula south. As the surface lows and high pressure that
had previously settled over the Interior continue to slowly
weaken, gusty winds along the West Coast weaken as well. Pressure
in the Interior continues to decrease through Tuesday as the storm
progresses further inland reaching near 1000 millibars by
Tuesday. Following the storm`s movement east high pressure in
eastern Siberia extends towards the West Coast Monday switching
wind directions more to the northwest and beginning a sharp
cooling trend. As this higher pressure pushes east the moisture
transport for the storm finally cuts off allowing the storm to
weaken significantly Tuesday. Higher pressure to the west and
lower pressure to the east encourage gusty westerly winds through
the Tanana Valley potentially leading to areas of blowing snow
Tuesday into Wednesday. Pressure continues to increase from the
west to the east across Northern Alaska through Wednesday as the
storm has the last of its moisture drained in the Southeastern
Interior.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
For Wednesday through next Sunday.
At the start of the forecast period Wednesday, higher pressure
moving out of Siberia continues to push into Northern Alaska
bringing mostly clear, mostly calm, and significantly colder
conditions following the large winter storm earlier in the week.
As high pressure pushes against the Alaska Range gusty northerly
winds are expected along the south side of Alaska Range passes.
These areas are not expected to have received very much snow from
the recent storm, but winds will be strong enough that periods of
blizzard conditions are possible. Colder and drier conditions are
likely to remain through the end of the week.

The probability of another storm system approaching the region
next weekend has diminished since yesterday. There is still a
non-zero chance that there may be a somewhat notable storm, but it
is less likely than yesterday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ802-803-806-807.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ836-837-849.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ851-852.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ812-825-826-830-831.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ813-819.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ814-815-817.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ816-818.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820-821.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ822-823.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ824-828-829.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ827.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ804-805-808>810-832-834.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ833-835.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ838>846.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ847.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-804-805-811>813-852-853-857>859.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
Gale Warning for PKZ806.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-810-855.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
Gale Warning for PKZ815-816-850-851-861.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817-860.
Gale Warning for PKZ854.
&&

$$

Stokes

444
FXAK67 PAJK 230630
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
930 PM AKST Sun Feb 22 2026

.UPDATE...update to include 06Z TAF issuance...
Only edits to the forecast this evening was increasing light snow
coverage across the southern panhandle this evening as the
frontal band lifted into the region this afternoon and snow was a
bit heavier than forecast. Some minor accumulations occurred
across POW Island based off webcams and observations. The Taku
wind event for Downtown Juneau and southern Douglas has ended and
the high wind warning was allowed to expire. However, the gradient
remains tight near Skagway and gusts 40+kt continue. Extended the
wind advisory until 3am Monday. Otherwise, outflow winds will
continue to diminish through the night into Monday morning.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Outflow winds begin to subside Sunday night through Monday. High
Wind Warning remains in effect for the Downtown Juneau and
Douglas areas through 9pm Sunday.

- Looking ahead, pattern change next week with outflow conditions
coming to an end and precipitation returning to the panhandle as
a system tracks across the N Gulf beginning Tuesday.

.SHORT TERM.../through Monday night/...
Strong outflow winds continue across the central and
northern panhandle into this evening. These winds will start to
diminish this evening into Monday morning allowing for all gale
warnings and land wind hazards to end tonight. As for right now,
continued winds of 45 kts with gusts near 60 kts continue across
Lynn Canal, Northern Chatham Strait, and Stephens Passage. For land
winds, strong gusts have continued over Downtown Juneau, Thane, and
South Douglas with gusts of 60 to 80 mph throughout the day. These
winds will gradually diminish through this evening with the High
Wind Warning ending tonight. Windy conditions also remain over
Skagway with continued gusts of 40 to 50 mph decreasing through
tonight.

For precipitation, the low south of the panhandle is sending light
snow and rain over southern portions of Prince of Wales Island,
Annette Island and into Ketchikan. This snow has created times of
lowered visibilities, but little to no accumulation is forecasted as
this low moves south and weakens through tonight.

A pattern change is on the way at the very end of the short term
period as a low pressure system moves into the northern gulf late
Monday into Tuesday. This system will bring snow across the area. On
Monday night, snow will mainly be over northern portions of SE AK
spreading through the area on Tuesday. See the long term discussion
for more information.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Thursday/...
Snow is once more in the forecast for SE AK. Tuesday dawns with
light snow already beginning to spread across the northern
panhandle. Through the day, accumulating snow will spread further
and further southward. The culprit is a developing low over the
Northern Gulf, which will advance towards the area as the upper
level ridge across the interior of the state weakens.

This means periods of accumulating snow are in the forecast through
Thursday. Many areas will see 4-8 inches of snow during this 3 day
period, although snow showers on Thursday as the system moves south
will result in some locations receiving more. Precipitation across
the central panhandle will changeover to rain by late Tuesday as
warm air pushes north. The warm air will however be quickly
pushed back out of the area on Wednesday, bringing snow back into
the forecast. As a result, the greatest snowfall totals are likely
to be across the Icy Strait Corridor and NE Gulf Coast, which will
likely remain snow or a rain/snow mix throughout the event. Dry
weather returns late Thursday into Friday, with northerly outflow
developing across Lynn Canal.

.AVIATION.../through Monday evening/...
VFR flight conditions continue for northern and central panhandle
with building mid to high level clouds through the period. For
the southern panhandle, light snow could bring brief MVFR CIGs
through around midnight, especially for PAKW and PAKT. Otherwise,
VFR flight conditions prevail for the period. Winds will
generally be less than 10kt. Winds for PAGY continue to be gusty
tonight 15-20G28-40kt before decreasing on Monday. Outflow winds
and LLWS near PAGY, PAJN and PAWG will diminish through the night
as well.

.MARINE...
Inside (Inner Channels): Northerly outflow continues across the
northern inner channels, but it will start to slowly diminish
tonight through Monday morning. Winds over Lynn Canal into Point
Couverden continue to see strong gales around 40 kts with gusts up
to 60 kts. These areas, along with Taku Inlet and Glacier Bay, will
continue to be where the strongest outflow winds are located. As the
high pressure continues to slowly shift SE, the east to west
gradient will continue to bring strong winds out of Taku Inlet and
the Stikine River Basin. Fully developed seas will continue tonight
around 10 to 14 ft slowly subsiding through Monday morning to 2 to 4
ft.

Freezing spray will continue where the strongest winds are occurring
out of interior passes. This will also subside through tonight
leaving areas of light freezing spray in far northern areas through
Monday morning. A change in pattern then occurs mid week as another
low pressure system pushes into the northern gulf.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Outflow conditions are present
across the eastern gulf, especially near the coast. Areas that will
continue to see the strongest winds include; out of Dangerous River,
out of Cross Sound, out of Southern Chatham, and near Grey Islet. We
have also seen areas of freezing spray out of these areas via
satellite imagery. Otherwise, easterly winds and significant seas
around 6 to 10 ft slightly subside tonight before once again building
Monday. Winds also relax into Monday before another system pushes
into the gulf mid week. This system will bring strong breezes to
gale force (27 to 37 kt) winds over the central and southern gulf
Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Advisory until 3 AM AKST Monday for AKZ318.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ031.
Gale Warning for PKZ012-013.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-022-031>034-053-641>
643-651-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DS
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...GFS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...EAB

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau