National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

 


ALERT!! Recent products available: View statements and warnings.

Flood Outlook

  

 

Current Conditions

 
 
 

Current Vis/IR Loop (click for loop)

 

 

 

Total Precipitable Water Loop

 

New Radar Page

Alaska Mosaic Radar Loop

Kenai Radar Loop

Middleton Radar Loop

Sitka Radar Radar Loop

Fairbanks Radar Loop

King Salmon Radar Loop

Bethel Radar Loop

Nome Radar Loop

 

 

Observed Precipitation

Yesterday

Day 1 Precipitation Forecast

2 Days Ago

Day 2 Precipitation Forecast

3 Days Ago

4 Days Ago

Day 4 Precipitation Forecast

5 Days Ago

Day 5 Precipitation Forecast

6 Days Ago

Day 6 Precipitation Forecast

7 Days Ago

Day 7 Precipitation Forecast

8 Days Ago

Day 8 Precipitation Forecast

9 Days Ago

Day 9 Precipitation Forecast

10 Days Ago

Day 10 Precipitation Forecast

 

Forecasted Precipitation

Day 1

Day 1 Precipitation Forecast

Day 2

Day 2 Precipitation Forecast

Day 3

Day 4

Day 4 Precipitation Forecast

Day 5

Day 5 Precipitation Forecast

Day 6

Day 6 Precipitation Forecast

Day 7

Day 7 Precipitation Forecast

Day 8

Day 8 Precipitation Forecast

Day 9

Day 9 Precipitation Forecast

Day 10

Day 10 Precipitation Forecast

 

Forecasted Freezing Levels (click for Loop)

 

 

 

 

 

 


CPC 6-10 Day Outlook

Temperature

Precipitation


 

CPC 8-14 Day Outlook

Temperature

Precipitation


 

CPC Week 3-4 Outlook

Temperature

Precipitation


 

CPC 1 Month Outlook

Temperature

Precipitation

>


CPC 3 Month Outlook

Temperature

Precipitation

For additional climate outlook data, see: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

A Guide to Interpreting CPC Products: https://www.weather.gov/afc/GuideToInterpretCPCProducts

 

Alaska Drought Monitor


027
FXAK68 PAFC 191356
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
556 AM AKDT Mon Oct 19 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- A large storm system will bring widespread rain and snow to most
of Southcentral tonight through Tuesday night.

- Multiple Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for snow
including for Broad Pass until 10 pm this evening; and Thompson
Pass, Western and North Copper River Basin until 4 am Wednesday
morning.

Discussion:

Widespread precipitation will continue to spread across the Kenai
Peninsula, Susitna Valley, and Prince William Sound through
Monday morning with 0.15" to 0.45" of precipitation already
falling across parts of the Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage Bowl.
Although temperatures are hovering in the mid 30s for most
locations with rain falling, snow has mixed in at times as heavier
bands of precipitation helped to cool the near surface just enough
for a few snowflakes to reach lower elevations. Farther north into
the Susitna and Northern Copper River Valleys, temperatures in
the upper 20s to lower 30s have allowed the precipitation to begin
as snow.

As noted in the previous forecast discussion, precipitation type
continues to be a forecast challenge as it will be highly
dependent on morning temperatures. A rain/snow mix will be
possible at times across the western Kenai, Anchorage, and the
Mat Valley before quickly changing over to rain as warmer
southeasterly flow erodes the cooler airmass currently in place.
Higher elevations (>2000 ft) will see snow with a possible
changeover to a rain/mix for coastal areas. As temperatures drop
back down towards freezing Monday night, should see precipitation
change back. Snowfall is expected to be slower to change over with
rain in the Susitna Valley Monday morning through Monday afternoon
while the Northern Copper Basin remains cold enough to see all
snow. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for these areas for
accumulating snowfall.

By Tuesday morning, an additional, stronger low pressure system
lifts north in the Gulf and tracks towards Prince William Sound by
Tuesday evening, leading to an additional round of precipitation
Tuesday into Wednesday. Total two-day snowfall in the Susitna
Valley is expected to range from 1" to 3" with 4" to 8" through
Broad Pass. The Northern Copper River Basin along the Richardson
Highway north of Gulkana could see around 4" to 10" of snow with
amounts as high as 10" to 20" from Paxson north. For areas along
the Glenn Highway west of Mendeltna, 6" to 12" of snow is likely.
These areas will be the most likely areas to see temperatures
hovering near to below freezing allowing for snow to accumulate.
Thompson Pass will also see mostly snow, though there is a chance
it could swing from snow to a mix of precipitation at times.
However, it should remain cold enough for modest snowfall rates of
1" to 1.5" per hour with the potential to see accumulations above
10 inches from Monday through Tuesday night. The coastal areas
along the Gulf and Prince William Sound will see the bulk of
precipitation from the system. The lower-elevations along the
coast could see rainfall amounts of several inches, from 1" to 3"
of rain across the eastern Kenai to 2" to 4" from Whittier to
Valdez and up to 6" of rain for Cordova. Upwards of an inch or
more of rain (or rain/snow mix at times) could fall across the
Cook Inlet region as well.

The precipitation forecast across the western Kenai, Anchorage,
and the MatSu remains fairly uncertain as model guidance continues
to struggle to come to a consensus on a storm track in the Gulf. A
farther west storm track in the Gulf could lead to a much more
substantial second round of precipitation for these areas for
Tuesday and Tuesday night, with temperatures likely cooling back
down enough by this time to see wet snow or a rain/snow mix near
sea level. A more eastward track scenario would largely clear
precipitation out of these areas by Tuesday, with the Gulf coast,
Prince William Sound, and Copper Basin continuing to see a bulk of
the precipitation.

Winds will also be quite strong for a few locations as well, with
strong easterly winds ahead of the first front today through
Prince William Sound and across Turnagain Arm and the Anchorage
Hillside. Strong winds and gusts over the Gulf will then be
reinforced by the rapidly deepening secondary surface low with a
likely core of storm-force winds over the open waters. Gusty
westerly winds will develop by Tuesday morning for Kodiak with a
period of strong northerly winds for Cook Inlet and Seward Tuesday
morning as well. This low will keep strong winds across Prince
William Sound into Wednesday morning.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A front moving across Southwest Alaska will exit to the north and
continue weakening through this morning. Light snow showers were
observed overnight across much of Southwest Alaska, with little to
no accumulation for most areas. Light snow will continue for
inland areas late this morning into early afternoon, becoming
mixed with rain and eventually transitioning to all rain as
temperatures warm above freezing. By late afternoon, precipitation
will mostly be confined to the mountain ranges and areas from
Sleetmute to Aniak and north. Cold air being pulled south across
the central/eastern Bering Sea will promote areas of small craft
winds today, with locally higher gusts through the gaps and passes
south of the Alaska Peninsula, though potential impacts are
minimal. Winds diminish below small craft Tuesday morning.

Relatively benign conditions are expected across Southwest Alaska,
Aleutian Chain, and Bering sea through the early to mid week until
the next front/low approaches from the west late week.

KM

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

Key Messages:

* A strong storm moves across the Bering Sea and into Alaska from
Thursday through the weekend, bringing winds as high as 40 to
60 mph.

* Though confidence is low in exact impacts at this time, strong
onshore winds and elevated coastal water levels are a concern
for Southwest Alaska on Friday and Saturday.

Discussion:

The biggest story in the long-term forecast will be a strong low
transiting from the Kamchatka Peninsula to Alaska. Ensembles are
in relatively good agreement with this storm, with seemingly
higher-than-average forecast confidence given that this feature is
4 to 7 days out. Good run-to-run consistency among deterministic
global models is also contributing to higher-than-average forecast
confidence. The areas of highest agreement with this feature are
for gale to storm force sustained winds along the front, including
as it moves across the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska
coastline. These onshore winds are raising concerns for coastal
impacts (including high surf and perhaps even coastal flooding)
for south-facing portions of the Western coast. It`s too early to
say for now what projected water levels will be, but we will be
closely monitoring this storm. Southcentral should be spared the
worst of the winds with this storm, as the front will very likely
be weakening by the time it exits Southwest Alaska.

In addition to winds, there will also be plenty of moisture advection
along the front, which will bring periods of moderate to heavy
precipitation to the Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and Southwest
Alaska. Precipitation amounts are a bit uncertain at this time, as
overall amounts will be dependent on where the front may slow
down and linger as upper waves move through. Given the strong
winds associated with the front, there will likely also be areas
of downsloping that will reduce precipitation totals. While warm
air advection will likely keep precipitation mostly rain for the
majority of Southwest Alaska, colder air lingering in Southcentral
could mean that lower elevation areas may see snow.

-KC


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...A frontal system continues to move northeast into
Southcentral today bringing rain into the terminal. Low level
temperatures have remained warm overnight and will continue
through the day today keeping rain the main precipitation type.
Low level wind shear is possible through this afternoon. Mostly MVFR
conditions will prevail through Tuesday afternoon. Cooler air
moves over the terminal this evening leading to a change to
snow/rain mix into Tuesday morning as a low moves through the
Northern Gulf.



&&


$$



037
FXAK69 PAFG 192322
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
322 PM AKDT Mon Oct 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Periods of snow have begun in the Alaska Range with heavy snow
likely tonight through Wednesday morning. Snowfall rates of 1
to 3 inches per hour expected at times.
* Isabel Pass will receive the most snow, between 24 to 36
inches.

- Snow is likely across most of the Interior, especially from
Fairbanks east Tuesday into Wednesday. Gusty winds are
expected, especially in the higher terrain and Upper Tanana
Valley. Winds may gust to 40 mph at times Tuesday afternoon.
* 3 to 7 inches expected for Nenena/Fairbanks/North Pole.
* 5 to 10 inches for the Denali Borough.
* 5 to 10 inches from Harding Lake to Eagle Summit.
* 6 to 12+ inches for most of the Eastern Interior with
elevated terrain seeing locally higher amounts.

- Patchy mixed precipitation and a glaze of ice possible near
Northway and the AlCan Border this evening through Tuesday.

- Much colder weather is likely Thursday and Friday with high
temperatures in the 20s and lows potentially near zero in many
locations. If skies are clear, temperatures likely reach or
surpass 0 degrees Thursday and Friday mornings.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Rain and snow continues through Tuesday afternoon. Light snow
accumulations around 1 to 2 inches possible in the Lower
Yukon Valley and McGrath.

- A strong low in the Bering Friday/Saturday will bring heavy
precipitation and strong wind. Coastal impacts are becoming
more likely as well beginning on Friday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Light snow will be ending along the NW Arctic Coast, but a
few snow showers linger over the North Slope with only minor
accumulations.

- Temperatures remain below freezing everywhere except for the
Chukchi Sea Coast which remains near to slightly above
freezing.
&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather across Northern Alaska with snow and rain showers
persisting out west, light snow showers on the North Slope and
moderate to heavy snow in the Interior. It doesn`t stop there,
we`re monitoring the potential for a strong storm in the Bering
bringing heavy precipitation, strong wind and coastal impacts late
this week into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
500mb vorticity tells most of the story today. A trough is
extending from the Arctic to the Aleutians with a piece of
robust energy being brought north from Pacific into the Gulf.
This piece of energy will rapidly undergo cyclogenesis through
this tonight and get slingshot northeast into The Yukon by
Tuesday. As this low moves into The Yukon, it will be fairly
strong and nearly a 970mb low which will result in strong wind
Tuesday afternoon. The key with this storm for the Interior of
Alaska is how far west or east the low goes once it exits the
Gulf and enters The Yukon. Even 24 hours from the start of the
event in the Interior, there is still high uncertainty in snow
amounts, especially in the Central Interior. It will all be
reliant on a heavier area of snow. The highest confidence for
this will be over the Eastern Interior and Eastern AK Range.
Near Fairbanks, we opted for a mix of Winter Weather Advisories
and Warnings due to the higher confidence in more snow to the
east rather than the west. It will not take a big change for
more or less snow in Fairbanks than what`s in the forecast. For
this event, there is a pretty big bust potential in Fairbanks,
slightly less in the Eastern Interior.

Otherwise, after this storm concludes on Wednesday, a cold front
will bring much colder air to the Interior. Thursday and Friday
mornings will likely be the coldest of the year so far. Any
clear skies will result in temperatures near or below zero
across the Interior.

Afterwards, all eyes turn towards a Bering Sea low which looks
to bring heavy precipitation, strong wind and the potential for
minor coastal flooding and/or high surf along the West Coast.
This is set to arrive around Friday morning and continue through
Friday night and into Saturday. Impacts from this low may linger
through the weekend as it will be slow moving. There will be
more details on this storm in the Long Term and Coastal sections
below.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At the start of the extended period, the low in the Gulf will
have moved northeast and out the state, with upper level ridging
gradually building in from the west. As this ridge pushes
farther east over the Alaska Peninsula, temperatures across the
Interior are expected to steadily decline through Friday as
clear skies overnight allow lows to dip into the single digits
and teens above zero. At higher elevations, overnight lows in
the single digits below zero remain possible, especially where
skies are clear. Should some cloud cover linger around,
temperatures will be a few degrees warmer.

Otherwise, the most important feature of note to discuss is an
incoming Bering Sea low that gradually moves into the Gulf on
Anadyr Friday into Saturday. Model guidance has this system`s
strength averaging around 975 mb to 980 mb at the surface, which
is conducive for moderate/high end impacts such as strong
winds, heavy precipitation, and minor coastal impacts. The first
of these impacts to be felt will likely be the winds, with
sustained winds speeds between 35 to 45 mph, gusting upwards of
70 mph possible out of south/southeast. These winds are expected
to arrive early Friday morning, peak in the afternoon, and
gradually weaken overnight but remain fairly elevated through
the weekend. As for precipitation, there will likely be a mix of
rain and snow that occurs with this storm since it will be
bringing in quite a bit of tropical moisture and warmth with it.
As a result, moderate to heavy snow is likely across the
southern Seward Peninsula and the Western Brooks Range, with
lower elevations and the YK Delta seeing moderate to heavy
rainfall. Exact rainfall and snowfall totals are still uncertain
for now, but because this system is expected to stall through
the weekend, some localized flooding may occur. Coastal impacts
look to remain fairly minor right now due to
southerly/southeasterly flow rather than the more concerning
southwesterly flow, however this could change depending on how
the Bering Sea low interacts with the ridge over the state. See
the "Coastal Hazard Potential" section for more details.

Elsewhere, temperatures are expected to quickly rise back into
the mid/low 30s across the Interior Saturday and Sunday as warm
air is brought in from the tropics and settles underneath the
ridge. Looking ahead into next week, active weather is likely to
continue across Northern Alaska as models begin to hint at the
possibility for successive lows moving into the Bering Sea.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential...
Models are depicting a low pressure system to approach the
Bering Sea by Thursday of this week. This system is likely to
bring strong southeasterly winds as the system nears Alaska`s
West Coast, turning south/southwesterly through the weekend.
While confidence is still low, the strongest gusts are likely to
occur Friday morning, with average gusts ranging from 45 to 70
mph. Most models are pointing towards the majority of the West
Coast likely seeing gusts up to 60 mph. This system looks like
it will be tracking abundant moisture into the West Coast.
Precipitation has a greater chance of falling as rain over the
YK Delta and snow north of the YK Delta. In terms of coastal
flooding concerns, water levels above the normal high tide line
are still uncertain. There is a chance for coastal flooding and
erosion though, especially from the Seward Peninsula south. Water
levels will be monitored throughout the week as the system is
slow-moving with strong onshore winds. By early next week,
another low could bring additional rain, snow, strong wind and
persistent coastal flooding or high surf concerns.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to 4 PM AKDT Wednesday
for AKZ833-834-838>840-843.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM AKDT
Wednesday for AKZ835>837.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 4 PM AKDT
Wednesday for AKZ841-842-844-845.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 4 AM AKDT
Wednesday for AKZ847-848.
Wind Advisory until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ849.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM AKDT Thursday for AKZ849-850.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT
Tuesday for PKZ806.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 AM AKDT Tuesday for
PKZ806-807.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT
Tuesday for PKZ854.
&&

$$

Key Messages.........Bianco
Synopsis.............Bianco
Short Term...........Bianco
Long Term............Santiago
Coastal..............Srinivasan



721
FXAK67 PAJK 191904 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1104 AM AKDT Mon Oct 19 2026

.UPDATE...After the 18z TAFS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Flood Watch in effect for Yakutat, Gustavus, Pelican, and Elfin
Cove, and Juneau. Isolated landslides possible along the NE
Gulf Coast, and Glacier Bay, near Steep Terrain.

- Strong winds push across the Gulf of Alaska into the Alaska
Panhandle by Monday night and continues through Tuesday with
widespread Wind Advisories in effect. Even stronger winds
expected at Skagway with a High Wind Watch remains in effect.

- Maritime interests need to pay attention to the strong front
projected to move across the Gulf of Alaska through Monday,
bringing Gale Force o potentially Storm Force winds to the Gulf
into Wednesday.


&&

.SHORT TERM.../through Tuesday night/...
Rain showers continue this morning along with areas of dense fog
that have developed overnight. These showers along with the areas
of fog should continue through the morning before coming to an
end. While this comes to an end, the next system to affect the
area is already moving closer to the panhandle. This system looks
to bring strong to potentially high winds along with significant
rain accumulations to the panhandle. Right now, the strongest
winds are expected to remain along the northern Gulf coast and
northern half of the panhandle. Places south of Sitka look to be
stay on the weaker end of this system but are likely to still see
some gusty winds and accumulating rain. The bulk of the rain
continues to look to impact places north of Sitka while south of
Sitka could see just a few inches of rain.

One of the big changes to the forecast this morning was to adjust
temperatures and subsequent snowfall amounts for the Klondike
Highway. The other major change was to introduce a slight chance
of thunderstorms along the outer coast starting Tuesday afternoon
due to the cold air aloft moving in and persisting through
Wednesday. With forecast guidance initializing colder this
morning, lowered some temperatures along the highways but kept
temperatures at sea level a little warmer than what guidance was
suggesting due to the expected winds and cloud cover. If the
guidance continues with the cold trend, some more adjustments to
the forecast will be needed.

For the wind forecast, remains a difficult one with model
guidance the last 3 runs all displaying different tracks of the
strengthening secondary front, all affecting the strength of
anticipated winds. Still moderate to high forecast confidence on
timing of onset. Starting this afternoon, expect strong wind gusts
to continue for approximately the next 36 hours. The first front
reaches Yakutat by later this afternoon and into the rest of the
panhandle late tonight into early Tuesday followed by a secondary
stronger Front and widespread strong wind gusts spreading again
across the area for Tuesday. Adjusted ongoing Wind Advisories for
Yakutat to see stronger gusts up to 55mph and the Ketchikan area
down to 40 kts with better dynamics remaining in the N Panhandle.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Saturday/...
The front that brought heavy rain and strong winds on Tuesday will
have all but cleared the southern panhandle by daybreak
Wednesday. In its wake, persistent onshore flow will continue
through Wednesday and into Thursday as the low lingers and slowly
weakens in the northern Gulf of Alaska. Subtle shortwaves and
upper troughs swinging around this low will keep higher
precipitation chances with moderate to heavy showers and gusty
winds across SEAK through Thursday. Behind the front, snow levels
fall to 1,0002,000 ft on Wednesday over the northern panhandle.
Snow showers will be possible along the Klondike Highway and upper
reaches of the Haines Highway through Thursday, though any
accumulation will remain light. As the low weakens and gradient
relaxes behind the frontal passage, gusty southerly winds will
slowly diminish through Thursday. The northern inner channels and
into Haines and Skagway could still be quite gusty on Wednesday
as the north to south gradient remains a bit tighter, and the High
Wind Watch remains in effect of Skagway. As the Gulf low weakens
further and shifts southeast toward the end of the week, showers
will lighten and end from north to south Thursday night into
Friday across SEAK. Upper-level ridging makes builds east across
Mainland Alaska by late week, with SEAK on the eastern edge of the
ridge. Ensemble and deterministic guidance generally showing high
pressure building in the wake of the departing low, with clearing
skies and drier offshore flow developing Friday and continuing
into the early weekend. Daytime highs will remain in the 40s
throughout the period, with overnight lows in the mid 30s to low
40s.


&&

.AVIATION.../ trough Tuesday mornig / First front to push through
the Northeast gulf and into the panhandle by Tuesday midday. Winds
Overnight in to early Tuesday. Turbulence and Wind shear,
possible overnight for the coastal sites Yakutat/Sitka, and
possibly reaching Gustavus and Klawock headed into midday Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Conditions will quickly
deteriorate from west to east across the Gulf Monday morning as a
strong system sends a strong gale force front towards the
panhandle into Tuesday. With the initial system on Monday,
southerly winds in the central gulf will increase to gale force
with much of the coast seeing strong breezes to near gale force
winds. A barrier jet also looks to form along the northern gulf
coast from Kayak Island eastward to Icy Bay with this first
system, bringing east to southeasterly strong gale force winds
into Tuesday. Current thinking is sustained will be capped around
45 kts, but with localized gusts up to 60 kts. Another system
looks to race up the western gulf coast overnight into Tuesday,
strengthening the initial system and sending another strong front
into the panhandle Tuesday into Wednesday. Main forecast change
was increasing winds across much of the western Gulf to sustained
45 kts gusts to 60 kts with higher confidence of a corridor of
higher winds on the back side of the system. Widespread southerly
35 to 45 kt winds are expected to take over through the remainder
of the gulf and along much of the coast Tuesday, which should
steadily decrease through Wednesday. Strong southwesterly swell is
also expected to increase, with the first system bringing 10 to
13 ft at a period of 10 to 12 seconds Monday and the second system
quickly increasing to 20 to 25 ft at a period of 13 to 15
seconds. This will bring accentuated wave heights of 16 to 19 ft
by Monday night and 25 to 30 ft through Tuesday. This will mainly
be an issue for the northern and central parts of the gulf, with
areas near Dixon Entrance staying closer to 12 to 18 ft at most.

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds across the southern inner channels
remain calm and variable as transient high pressure quickly moves
across the area ahead of an approaching front. The northern inner
channels are already seeing sustained 15 to 25 kts, with Lynn
Canal reaching closer to 30 to 35 kts by Monday afternoon. The
strong southerly winds will spread through the rest of the central
inner channels through Monday and into the southern inner
channels by Tuesday morning. Anticipating periods of gale force
winds to spread throughout the inner channels through Tuesday,
bringing 6 to 8 ft wave heights through much of the panhandle.
Winds in the southern and central panhandle should begin to
decrease Tuesday night, while parts of the northern panhandle look
to stay elevated through Wednesday.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...A strong system is expected to move into the northern central
gulf, reinforcing the existing low pressure system, and drawing a
deeper fetch of moisture from northern Pacific. By Tuesday
morning, this plume of moisture is expected to shift from
southwest to southerly, and is likely to exceed 600 kg/ms IVT for
around a 12-18 hour period for any given location in the Icy
Strait corridor and NE gulf coast. Expecting Yakutat to be the big
winner in terms of rain amounts, with near perfect perpendicular
flow, strong WAA in the low levels increasing lift potential, and
decent divergence aloft. With this, Yakutat could see upwards of
6 inches during a 36 hour period, which is a little higher than a
2 year ARI event. There are lower probabilities of around 30% to
see a 5 year event for 36 hours for the NE gulf coast, and even
higher ARIs are possible further into Yakutat Bay. These higher
ARIs look to extend down the coast and into the Glacier Bay area,
with may areas along south facing slopes exceeding 5 year return
intervals and approaching on 10 year over a 36 hour period.
Therefore, added Elfin Cove, specifically for the mountains to the
north, the NE gulf coast, and Glacier Bay to the Flood Watch.
This is mainly for areal flooding of low lying areas and ponding
of water. That being said, the wind component of this system has
wind gusts greater than 40 mph at elevations greater than 500 ft,
and greater than 60 mph at elevations around 2000 ft. Current
thinking is the high rain rates combined with higher return
intervals in the upper rainfall ranges (higher percentiles, lower
probability) leads to an increased risk of isolated landslides in
steep terrain based on historical atmospheric conditions.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM AKDT Tuesday for
AKZ317.
Flood Watch from 10 PM AKDT this evening through late Tuesday
night for AKZ317-320-322-325.
High Wind Watch from 7 PM AKDT this evening through Wednesday
afternoon for AKZ318.
Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM AKDT Wednesday
for AKZ319.
Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for
AKZ320>322-325.
Wind Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for
AKZ323-324-327.
Wind Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 4 AM AKDT Wednesday for
AKZ330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-053-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...Bezenek/Contino
MARINE...NM
HYDROLOGY...NC

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau