Graphical Hydro Meteorological Discussion

811
FXAK68 PAFC 170148
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
448 PM AKST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Wednesday)...

A significant pattern change is underway across Southcentral this
afternoon as the prolonged period of below average temperatures,
high pressure and clear skies comes to an end, while a much
warmer, unsettled and wet/snowy pattern takes shape. A front
extending from a strong low moving off the coast of the Kuskokwim
Delta is now moving up from the western Gulf and Kodiak into the
Kenai Peninsula and Cook Inlet region. Radar returns are already
showing a band of light to moderate snow moving up from Homer into
Kenai and Soldotna, and this band should move up into Anchorage
and parts of the Mat-Su over the next few hours. Farther east, an
upper ridge is shifting off towards the AlCan border from the
Copper Basin, where upper level cloud cover is already increasing
ahead of the incoming system to the southwest. Temperatures in
general are beginning as steady warming trend across most of the
outlook area, though some spots such as Willow and Gulkana are
still holding on to temperatures hovering near zero.

By later tonight, strong southeasterly and cross-barrier flow
developing along and ahead of the front will shut snow back off
temporarily in the lee of the mountains from parts of the
northern Kenai Peninsula out to Anchorage. Meanwhile, steady snow
will overspread much of the greater Prince William Sound and
eastern Kenai Peninsula, particularly close to and over the
coastal mountains. On Monday morning, a negatively tilted trough
lifting up from the northern Gulf will amplify as it approaches
the Kenai Peninsula and help induce the development of a triple
point low along the front near or just to the south of Prince
William Sound. This setup looks favorable for a rather short
duration but very intense band of snow to set up from near the
developing low and along the approaching trough axis to the
northwest, including much of the Kenai Peninsula, Mat-Su and
Anchorage. A quick 2 to 5 inches of accumulation is likely for
Anchorage and the Mat-Su as the band moves across from southwest
to northeast.

Looking a bit farther to the east, much higher totals will be
possible across parts of the interior Kenai Peninsula and near
Portage and Whittier, largely depending on how much warm air is
able to filter into lower elevations with the easterly flow moving
in north of the front and weak low. However, guidance has
seemingly been playing catch up with the amount of cold air in
place ahead of this system, and we accordingly have trended the
forecast towards more locations across the Kenai Peninsula holding
on to all snow through Monday evening. This is also in line with
the thinking that the progression of the low as it tracks into
Prince William Sound will substantially shorten the window for
easterly flow to advect warmer air into the Kenai Peninsula, with
winds rapidly weakening as the low enters the Sound late Monday
morning. Winter Weather Advisories will go into effect later this
evening for Portage, Whittier and much of the Seward Highway
corridor from Girdwood south to Moose Pass. Of note, some of the
heaviest snowfall rates of up to 2 inches per hour could impact
the morning commute along the Seward Highway on Monday morning.

From Monday night into Tuesday, model agreement breaks down
quickly. The track and timing of a secondary shortwave trough
moving up into the Gulf remains highly in question, with some
solutions showing the shortwave head northeast towards Yakutat.
Some other solutions pull the trough straight north into the
Southcentral, possibly bringing another round of snow and coastal
rain to parts of the region Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Regardless of the exact details, an unsettled and showery pattern
will continue through midweek.

-AS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 to 3)...

A ~960 mb surface low continues to lift northward across the
eastern Bering this afternoon. Models have struggled with
resolving the exact track of the low, at times taking west and
east of Nunivak Island. The latest consensus is coming into better
agreement with having the center of the low clip the western side
of Nunivak Island later tonight, while the low gradually begins
to weaken. Before weakening occurs, however, numerous impacts will
continue to be felt across the Kuskokwim Delta region.

Winds have been gusting to near 50 mph across Nunivak Island and
Nelson Island the past few hours with visibility dropping down to
1/4 mile or less. Thus, the previous winter weather advisory for
blowing snow has been upgraded to a blizzard warning for the
Kuskokwim Delta through early Monday morning. Conditions elsewhere
along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast will continue to be at risk of
snow and blowing snow with visibility dropping down to 1/2 mile or
less at times.

Gusty conditions and snow are also persisting across interior
portions of the Kuskokwim Delta with Nunapitchuk, in particular,
experiencing blizzard-like conditions in the short term. A winter
weather advisory has been expanded across zone 756 as snow and
blowing snow have clearly spread further inland. This advisory
will also extend through early Monday morning before the low
itself lifts further north and out of the region.

Elsewhere across Southwest Alaska, scattered snow showers are
ongoing across Bristol Bay and locations from Togiak to Dillingham
are forecast to receive on the order of 2 to 3 inches of snow
through tonight. Warming temperatures on Monday, owing to
persistent southerly flow into the region, will transition any
remaining snow to rain through tomorrow morning.

With little break in the weather, the next Bering Sea storm
system arrives Tuesday into Wednesday. A broad front will push
into the Aleutians on Tuesday with gusty winds and showery
conditions. By Wednesday, an occluded front is progged to reach
the Kuskokwim Delta Coast with another round of potentially strong
southerly winds.

-BL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

Broad upper level troughing will be present over the Bering Sea
by the start of the long term forecast period. Shortwaves rotating
around the base of the trough will allow for a strong surface low
to lift up toward Kodiak Island on Thursday shifting the main
trough axis east over mainland Alaska for Friday and Saturday.
Deterministic models vary greatly on the exact track of this
surface low, but it looks to direct a plume of deep moisture
toward the southern Alaska coast Thursday and Friday. Expect
moderate to heavy rain at sea level and heavy mountain snow for
the Alaska Peninsula, Kodiak Island, and the north Gulf Coast.
Gale to storm-force winds will also be associated with this low in
the surrounding marine areas before it dissipates Friday night.
High pressure will build over the Aleutians through the weekend
and increase in amplitude as it marches over western mainland
Alaska by Monday. It will quickly be followed by upper level
troughing over the western Bering with deep southerly flow and
embedded surface lows locally enhancing winds and rain across the
western Aleutians.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...A quick bout of snow is likely later this evening with a
period of MVFR CIGs/VIS possible. Conditions improve a bit before
deteriorating once again as snow becomes likely by Monday
morning. CIGs/VIS could drop into IFR late Monday morning into
early afternoon in heavier snow.

&&

$$

146
FXAK69 PAFG 170042
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
342 PM AKST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of low pressure systems moving through the Bering Sea
into Western Alaska starting tonight into Monday and continuing
through midweek will support gusty winds, widespread snow, and
warming temperatures along the West Coast and Western Interior. An
overlap of gusty winds and snow could lead to significant
reductions in visibility at times. Winds, snow chances, and warmer
temperatures will build into the Interior north to the North
Slope southwest to northeast as a more active and warmer pattern
begins to encompass Northern Alaska. Winter Storm Warnings and
Winter Advisories have been issued for the Yukon Delta north
through the Seward Peninsula and NW Arctic Coast for gusty winds
and snow/blowing snow, with a Wind Advisory in effect for Isabel
Pass along the Richardson Highway for strong gap winds. This
active weather pattern is expected to persist in the Bering Sea
and Gulf of Alaska to finish out the week, as a series of low
pressure systems and fronts moving into Alaska help to reinforce
warmer temperatures, winds, and snow chances to finish out the
week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Cold and dry conditions will continue across the Interior ahead
of moisture from the Bering Sea building in southwest to
northeast tonight into Monday and Tuesday with widespread light
snowfall, heaviest in the Alaska Range.

- Southerly winds will ramp up through Windy Pass and Isabel Pass
tonight through Monday, with gusts up to 55 mph expected.

- Following an extended stretch of cold, below normal
temperatures, conditions will trend warmer through the upcoming
work week.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A very active weather pattern ramps up tonight into Monday and
continues through midweek as a series of storms in the Bering
Sea impact Western Alaska with gusty winds, widespread snow, and
warmer temperatures.

- Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories have been
issued along the West Coast and at St. Lawrence Island, where
the heaviest snow and strongest winds are expected. Localized
blizzard conditions are possible, leading to possible whiteout
conditions at times.

- Strongest wind gusts through midweek will peak around 30-50 mph,
strongest offshore and at St. Lawrence Island where gusts up to
60 mph are possible.

- Temperatures see a steady warming trend throughout the early
part of the week as a moist and warmer airmass moves in with
southerly flow. While predominant snow is expected, a rain/snow
mix will be possible across lowest elevations particularly along
the southern coastlines.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Cold and mostly dry conditions will continue across the Brooks
Range and North Slope through tonight, with isolated snow
showers and areas of fog along the Arctic Coast.

- E/NE winds prevail along the Arctic Coast, strongest further
west out towards Point Hope and the Lisburne Peninsula where
gusts up to 45 mph will continue through Monday.

- A system moving north across Western Alaska will support the
return of widespread snow moving into the Central/Western Brooks
Range Monday into Tuesday and NW Arctic Coast.

- Following an extended stretch of cold, below normal
temperatures, conditions will trend warmer through the upcoming
work week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday Night.
Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a 960 mb low centered
near Nunivak Island lifting north along the West Coast, as a
series of lows move southwest across the North Slope and Beaufort
Sea. Models continue to close in on the agreement and track of
this low, showing the storm system steadily tracking north Monday
into Tuesday with widespread snow and gusty winds. As this low
ultimately moves north and is incorporated into a broader low over
the Chukchi Sea, a secondary system looks to fill quickly fill in
behind out in the Central Bering Sea and continue to drive
precipitation, warmer air, and gusty winds into Western Alaska.
There continues to be lesser confidence on this system which we
will continue to evaluate. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter
Weather Advisories are in effect through Wednesday along the West
Coast through midweek to best capture these snow and wind hazards.
Locations at times may see brief improvements to conditions
overall in between systems. Widespread snow chances building into
Southwest Alaska will shift northeast starting tonight into
Monday, with an overlap of snow and the strongest winds leading to
localized blizzard conditions at times.

Snowfall accumulations through Wednesday with this series of
systems will be highest across the West Coast/NW Arctic Coast,
Western Interior, Western and Central Brooks Range, and in the
Alaska Range. Here is where we are expecting a broad 3-6" with
higher totals in that 6-12" range across the Southern Seward
Peninsula, St. Lawrence Island, and higher elevations of the
Alaska Range/Brooks Range, locally higher across highest
elevations. As this system progresses north, winds will ramp up
across the West Coast, strongest offshore and at St. Lawrence
Island where wind gusts up to 60 mph are expected. Winds elsewhere
along the West Coast will see gusts peak around 30-50 mph. Due to
the warm air advection out of the south, there could also be a
few locations for the Southwest Coast of the Yukon Delta which may
have a mix of rain and snow. Here is where after the intrusion of
warm air builds in tomorrow, there is lower confidence on
significantly reduced visibilities in blowing snow. However, given
a cold airmass well entrenched along the West Coast ahead of this
storm, blizzard conditions will continue to be monitored for as
moisture builds in to this colder temperatures.

Across the Interior, a persistent cold and dry airmass will
ultimately give way to warming temperatures through the upcoming
work week as broad southerly flow encompasses the state. Low
pressure in the Gulf of Alaska and Southcentral tonight into
Monday will help to create a moderate gradient across the Interior
Sunday night into Monday This setup will remain favorable for
sub-advisory gap winds through Windy Pass and Isabel Pass with
gusts up to 50 mph late Sunday into Monday. Snow will build into
the Interior southwest to northeast Monday into Tuesday, with more
moderate snowfall amounts expected across the Western Interior
and Alaska Range with lighter amounts further east out along the
Alcan Border.

Coastal Hazard Potential Day 1 and 2...As a series of low
pressure systems move through the Bering Sea, minor rises above
MHHW are expected along southwestern portions of the West Coast
through midweek, particularly across the southern Yukon Delta
around Hooper Bay. Ice will help to reduce the possibility of this
scenario overall, but given the bulk of ice is not shorefast yet,
we will continue to monitor this over the coming days.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Wednesday through next Sunday.
Overall ensembles remain in relatively good agreement with the
broad area of low pressure over the Bering Sea propagating
northward into the Chukchi Sea through the early part of the week,
and then expanding over into the Beaufort Sea, with the eastern
half of the state becoming more influenced by low pressure. This
is going to help to do two things for the Mainland; it will help
to warm temperatures as we see an increase of more cloud coverage
(and essentially lose more of the radiational cooling), and it
will also allow for an increase in moisture, with a more favorable
chance of snow for some locations. As this low also ejects up
through the Strait, the tightening of the gradient will allow for
stronger winds to remain more confined to the West Coast and
higher elevations of the Brooks Range and Alaska Range. For these
locations, these gusty winds and snow could lead to areas of
blowing and drifting snow, potentially significantly reducing
visibility at times with localized blizzard conditions.

The overall energy from this low is going to move into the Gulf
of Alaska towards the end of the week, and the southerly flow will
keep the relatively warmer airmass in place, which could lead to
some of the coastal areas along the Southwest Coast of the Y-K
Delta to get a mix of rain and snow ahead of the low moving into
the Gulf, but then transition back to snow with colder air
advection on the backside of this system. The moisture from the
south is going to expand across much of the Mainland towards the
end of the week, and then going into the following weekend, there
are beginning signals which indicate that a ridge could be
building back in towards the end of next weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ814>819.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ820-821.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ822-823.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ824>826.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ827.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-804.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805>807-852.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805>807-811-812-816-817-
851>854-856>858.
Gale Warning for PKZ811-850-857.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
Gale Warning for PKZ816-817-851-854.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850.
Gale Warning for PKZ853.
Gale Warning for PKZ856.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......MacKay
KEY MESSAGES...MacKay
SHORT TERM.....MacKay
LONG TERM......Stewey

727
FXAK67 PAJK 170536 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
836 PM AKST Sun Nov 16 2025

.UPDATE...Aviation section updated for 6z taf issuance.

&&

SHORT TERM...Sunday is a relatively quiet weather period for
southeast Alaska, with two separate 998mb low transiting along our
coast, light winds across the inner channels, and some fog for
isolated areas. Upstream on the eastern edge of the Aleutian Arc a
storm force low is pushing north into the Bering, with shortwave
troughs rotating around the parent 500mb low being the catalyst
for propagation into the gulf through the next few days. For the
first of these systems, a secondary low and occluding front will
push east across the gulf Monday, bringing elevated wind, enhanced
seas, and precipitation into the Panhandle into Tuesday. As the
front moves across the inner channels there exists a chance to see
snow mixing down to the surface for the central and southern
region, but the dominant precip type, and impacts, remain rain.
The Icy Strait corridor offers its usual forecast challenge, with
confidence increasing for snow as one moves north and closer to
the border of Canada. Current published forecast has 2 to 3 inches
of snow for Haines Highway and 2 to 6 inches for the Klondike
Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning; most snow closer to the
border. Heaviest rates look to come in through Monday afternoon.
Anticipate warmer southerly air to push through Haines/Skagway by
Tuesday morning bringing all rain to sea level areas. For the
Juneau area we could see a quick of about an inch of snow Monday
morning. A closing note for Yakutat, the current forecast has
about 0.8 inches of wet snow early Monday morning based off heavy
precip rates associated with the incoming front briefly dropping
snow levels down to the surface for a few hours. There is an 80%
chance that the northern coast will see all rain with no
accumulating snow.

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Friday/...An active pattern
continues across southeast Alaska through the rest of the week
with multiple systems and a range of possibilities for snow. The
Haines and Klondike Highways remain the likeliest suspects for
accumulating snow at this time. Communities at sea level will be
harder pressed to see any accumulating snow due to the lack of any
cold continental airmass in the lower levels. However, snow mixing
in with rain cannot be ruled out with any heavier precipitation
bringing snow levels closer to the surface, as seen with recent
systems.

For Tuesday, a short wave trough will rotate through the gulf with
some model discrepancies on the strength of two associated lows.
One of these will likely track towards Cook Inlet and Prince
William Sound. The other one is expected to track towards the
panhandle, bringing more precipitation across the panhandle,
lingering over the panhandle Tuesday night. Storm totals are
expected to be lower for this system than the one earlier in the
week, with the upper elevations of the Haines and Klondike
Highways seeing another 1 to 2 inches of snow.

Moving to midweek, there is still some uncertainty over the track
of a gale force low moving into the southern gulf Wednesday. The
GEFs continues to have a midlevel ridge push slightly further
north along the gulf, which is driving the midweek system further
north along the panhandle, while both the Canadian and Euro
ensembles have this ridge being shallower and not steering the low
as far north. Therefore, there were not enough changes to warrant
deviation from the previous forecast in following the trend of
the grand ensemble. This still has the low weakening as it
approaches the panhandle between Dixon entrance and Baranof Island,
though still bringing moderate precipitation, primarily from
Frederick Sound southward. Any northward shift in the track of
this feature would lead to stronger winds pushing further north
along the inner channels as well as higher precipitation rates for
the central panhandle. Even so, the highest precipitation amounts
overall from this system would still be expected along the outer
coast of the southern panhandle with 0.75 to 1.5 inches in 24
hours for the far southern panhandle and outer coast, diminishing
to around 0.5 inches for the panhandle north of Frederick Sound.
Depending upon the northward jog of this low, the highways could
also see another small batch of snow.

Fresh on the heels of this, another system will form south of the
Alaska Peninsula and push a gale force front across the gulf
towards the panhandle Thursday night into Friday. This front is
expected to bring gale force winds to the gulf waters along with
widespread moderate to heavy precipitation to a majority of the
panhandle. The heaviest precipitation is expected along outer
coastal communities, with 24 hour totals from Thursday afternoon
to Friday afternoon 1.5 to 2.5 inches, and locally higher amounts
at higher elevations and westward facing slopes. For communities
in the inner channels, storm totals look to be closer to 0.75
inches to 1.5 inches. As with earlier in the week, a lack of a
significant cold continental airmass in the inner channels will
likely limit any snow potential for communities at sea level.
Haines and Skagway cannot be ruled out, especially higher
elevations of the Chilkat Peninsula. Also, the track of the low
on Wednesday into Thursday could serve to prime the northern inner
channels for snow if it induces a northerly gradient for long
enough. Stay tuned for forecast updates as the week progresses.

AVIATION...A lot of the lower clouds that stuck around the
northern and central inner channels today lingered into the
evening as well. Currently ceilings around 1300 to 2500 ft have
been rather persistent around Haines, Skagway, Gustavus, Hoonah,
Kake, and Petersburg and are expected to at least stick around
through the night. Otherwise it is VFR conditions everywhere else
this evening. Higher clouds are starting to show up for the
northern half of the area in advance of tomorrow`s front and
northern areas will likely see precipitation starting up by
sunrise. Areas from Icy Strait northward may see some snow out of
this to at least start, especially at Haines and Skagway, and if
that happens expect vis and ceilings to drop to low MVFR or even
IFR. Areas where the precip stays as rain expect higher, but still
MVFR conditions. Except for Haines and Skagway, most areas that
see some snow to start with will likely change to rain by
afternoon and vis and ceilings will likely improve, but still be
in MVFR conditions. The southern panhandle will have to wait until
at least mid day or afternoon before the precip reaches them with
the accompanying ceiling drop to MVFR expected soon after. The
precip is expected to last into the evening before diminishing.

This front is also bringing in some gusty surface winds mainly for
the north and northeast outer coast mainly during the day. Winds
aloft over the outer coast from Baranof Island northwestward will
also be a bit frisky with SE winds up to 30 to 40 kt at 2000 ft
resulting in a period of mostly low level speed shear in these
areas. The best potential for this is Monday afternoon into early
Monday evening before winds aloft and at sea level diminish.

MARINE...
Outside (Gulf/coastal waters):
As of this writing Sunday afternoon at 2pm local, coastal buoys
are near 11 ft at 11 seconds from the WSW and diminishing as the
responsible storm weakens. Anticipate this WSW swell to continue
early Monday morning and significant heights of 6 to 7 ft from
Cross Sound toward Dixon for a brief moment. However, easterly
winds increase to near-gale, to gale force, starting Monday
morning for Cape St. Elias, with southeasterly winds of strong
breezes to near-gales building for the remainder of our coast
into the afternoon. Associated with this frontal wind will be
southeasterly fresh seas, with underlying westerly swell, creating
confused seas of 11 to 13 ft into Monday evening focused near 8
seconds. Overnight Monday westerly swell begins to dominate, with
significant heights remaining near 12 ft along our coast at a
period near 12 seconds.

Inside (Inner Channels):
Gentle to moderate breezes are a welcome sight across the inside
this Sunday afternoon, with winds less than 20 knots forecasted
into the evening. Overnight Monday winds become southerly in
response to an approaching front, building to moderate breezes for
most of the inner channels by sunrise Monday. Anticipate a
frontal passage Monday afternoon into the evening, with many
channels feeling a few hours of fresh to strong breezes associated
with the front. However, current forecast reflects a few hours of
gusts reaching near gale force conditions for Lynn Canal as the
pressure gradient tightens Monday evening. A series of systems
will continue to impact the inside through the week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind Monday afternoon for AKZ317.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM AKST Monday for AKZ318.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-031>033-053-641>644-651-
661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...AP

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