Graphical Hydro Meteorological Discussion

413
FXAK68 PAFC 080135
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
435 PM AKST Fri Nov 7 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
This afternoon through Monday afternoon)...

The remnants of yesterday`s snow storm continue to linger in the
Western Gulf, but much more benign conditions are in store as it
weakens and exits the Gulf through tomorrow. Focus shifts,
instead, to a strong North Pacific low entering the Gulf from late
Sunday into Monday, which looks to bring widespread gales and a
return to wetter conditions. Impacts in Southcentral will be
highly dependent on how far north the low tracks, which is still
uncertain at this time. Otherwise, generally trending colder
across the region, with temperatures dipping as low as the single
digits in the Copper River Basin and about 10-20 degrees for all
but the immediate coastline and Kodiak Island. Resuspended ash
from the 1912 Katmai-Novarupta eruption will likely continue
to move over Kodiak Island through tomorrow morning, after which
ash will settle out as winds subside.

Diving into the details... the latest information on yesterday`s
snow totals can be found via the Local Storm Reports on our
webpage. Generally, 4-8 inches in Western Kenai Peninsula, 6-10
inches in Anchorage and Eagle River, and up to 4 inches in Palmer.
The greatest amounts were at higher elevations along the Seward
Highway, with snow totals about 1-2 feet.

Though the heaviest snow has ended, many areas will see periods of
lighter snow through tomorrow as upper level shortwaves rotate
around the low in the Gulf. A stronger wave lifts north into the
Copper River Basin through tonight, with snow moving from the the
southern half of the basin to the Alaska Range by Saturday
morning. This same wave will also bring some snow across
Anchorage Borough and the Mat-Su Valleys, though snow amounts have
trended lower for Anchorage since the previous forecast. Snow
totals through tonight will remain on the lighter side, with up to
2 inches likely. Higher amounts are possible along Western Prince
William Sound, where onshore flow will lead to a longer duration
of snow showers.

By late Saturday into Sunday, the upper-level low east of Kodiak
begins to drift south, allowing for a ridge of high pressure to
build in across the interior. This will allow for clearer
conditions and colder temperatures. Northerly gap winds will
redevelop along the immediate coast as the pressure gradient
tightens between the ridge over the interior and a trough setting
up over the northern Gulf.

Towards the end of the weekend, a 970-980 mb low will move into
the Gulf from the North Pacific. Models have struggled mightily
with this low the past few days but have come into much better
agreement over the course of today. There`s good consensus for
widespread gales, and that this low (for now) will remain offshore
in the Gulf. With this track, expect cooler temperatures and
offshore winds to persist over Mainland Southcentral. The one
hazard to monitor will be the potential for blowing snow through
Thompson Pass if precipitation makes it far enough north to
coincide with gusty offshore winds.

-TM/KC

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Gusty northerly winds will continue through the gaps and passes
of the Alaska Peninsula through this evening, coming to an end
tonight. Further west, a deep low pressure system has moved over
the Western Bering this morning, pushing a strong front into the
Western Aleutians. Hurricane force winds over Shemya to Amchitka,
will continue tonight, thus a High Wind Warning is currently in
effect through Saturday morning, please see product for more
information. The strong front will spread eastward, moving over
Adak with storm-force southerly winds initially, diminishing to
gale-force tonight. Along the front, also expect light-to-
moderate rainfall rates. The front will retain its strength from
there, advancing steadily eastward moving over Unalaska and the
southern Alaska Peninsula by Saturday night. Channeled gusty
southerly winds through favored gaps and passes on the northern
side of the Alaska Peninsula, such as Cold Bay, which may see
locally higher winds.

As the front reaches the Kuskokwim Delta coast Saturday evening,
gusty winds small craft to gale force may push coastal waters
onshore and raise water levels 2 to 3 feet beyond the normal
highest tide. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from Saturday
evening through noon Sunday. Temperatures are expected to be cold
enough for precipitation to remain as snow as the front
approaches. Combined with gusty winds, blowing snow is expected,
with visibility reductions of half mile or less. As such, a Winter
Weather Advisory has been issued for the Kuskokwim Delta coast and
the Western Capes of Southwest. Stay tuned for the latest info on
this rapidly evolving system, and potential impacts for your
area.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

There is little change to the long term outlook from yesterday as
the overall pattern remains active, highlighted by the next
strong storm arriving in the western Bering by Tuesday. This
large, vertically stacked low moving along the Kamchatka coast
will begin pushing its front into the western and central
Aleutians through Tuesday. There continues to be moderate to high
confidence that winds along this front will reach sustained high-
end gale to storm force as the front reaches the western Aleutians
Monday night into Tuesday morning. As this front pushes east
through Tuesday into Wednesday, reasonably good model agreement
suggests the front quickly weakening as it reaches the Alaska
Peninsula and Southwest Alaska coast as the parent low continues
to spin along the Kamchatka coast through midweek. As the front
pushed inland across the Mainland, light snow can be expected for
much of Southwest Alaska Wednesday and Thursday.

Downstream of the system in the Bering, upper level ridging
pushing into Southcentral looks to keep the weather relatively
quiet through midweek. Confidence begins to decrease mid to late
next week as models continue to show significant spread on the
development of low pressure systems lifting north towards the
Aleutians and tracking into the Gulf. Differences in the track
across the Gulf continue to make it difficult to ascertain how far
into Southcentral precipitation will go, with the bulk of
potentially stronger winds and precipitation likely remaining
along the coast and over the Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...MVFR ceilings with northerly winds up to 10 kts expected.
VFR ceiling and visibility are possible at times this afternoon
before another round of light snow moves over the terminal this
evening. VFR conditions should return once the snow moves out of
the area after 09Z.

&&


$$

888
FXAK69 PAFG 072343
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
243 PM AKST Fri Nov 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS... Moisture from the Gulf of Alaska has continued to lift
north across the Interior through the Brooks Range to the Arctic
Coast, supporting isolated to scattered snow chances, which will
taper off throughout the weekend as the low continues to weaken and
move out of the region. Additional snow accumulations through Sunday
are expected to be 1-3" overall. Increasing high pressure building
into Western Alaska will lead to drier conditions and clearer skies
going into the weekend. Ahead of an approaching strong, but rapidly
decaying, area of low pressure entering the Bering Sea will bring
about stronger winds and snow moving in tomorrow and through
Saturday night along the West Coast and St. Lawrence Island, but
this will be relatively short lived with diminishing winds and
improving conditions going into Sunday. Temperatures will trend
colder heading into early next week as conditions trend
predominantly dry outside of very isolated snow chances.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Light snow continues through the weekend across the Interior, with
additional accumulations around 1-3" through Sunday. There will be
an increase in the chance of snowfall overnight, following by a
drying trend beginning tomorrow, with snow showers tapering off
thereafter throughout the rest of the weekend.

- Isolated snow chances shift east to along the Alcan Border for
Monday as predominantly dry conditions return early next week.

- Cloudy skies continue to stabilize temperatures through the start
of the weekend with highs in the teens and 20s and lows in the
single digits and teens.

- Clearer skies setting up early next week will support temperatures
trending colder, as highs drop to the single digits and teens with
lows in the single digits above and below zero. Coldest spots
reaching the double digits below zero.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Snow showers and N/NW winds continue along the West Coast today
with light additional accumulations.

- Light snow continues through tonight across southeast portions of
the Western Interior with additional accumulations around 1-3".

- E/SE winds increase along the West Coast and St. Lawrence Island
Saturday into Saturday night with up to Gale Force winds expected.

- Snow chances steadily increase for St. Lawrence Island and the
Yukon Delta late Saturday into Saturday night, shifting north
towards the Seward Peninsula for Sunday as the Northwest Coast
remains predominantly dry.

- Highs in the teens inland to 20s along the coast and lows in the
single digits inland to teens along the coast. Temperatures trend
colder starting this weekend with lows below zero possible.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Light snow continues through the weekend, with additional
accumulations up to around 1-3". Highest totals expected along the
Arctic Coast and Central/Eastern Brooks Range.

- Isolated snow chances shift northeast for Monday to along the
Arctic Coast and Alcan Border as predominantly dry conditions return
early next week.

- Highs in the teens and 20s across the North Slope and single
digits and teens in the Brooks Range, with lows in single digits and
teens to below zero in the Brooks Range. Temperatures trend colder
starting this weekend.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Tonight through Sunday Night.
A weakening low positioned over the Gulf of Alaska has only been
providing some light snow over portions of the Interior throughout
this afternoon, and a layer of warmer air with relatively warmer
temps in the DGZ with lower level saturation has also even allowed
for some light drizzle to be mixed in with light flurries in, and
around the Fairbanks area. Please see the Winter Weather Advisory,
which entails all of details. As another major shortwave trough
enters into the eastern Gulf, the associated warm frontal boundary
of this will move up over the region by later on this evening and
increase the probability of more snowfall to occur overnight over
the eastern half of the state as a reinforcement of more moisture is
advected up from the south. These snow showers will continue to
taper off going into tomorrow and the low continues to pull away
from the region.

Simultaneously, there will be a very strong area of
low pressure entering the Bering Sea tomorrow, which will allow for
the surface pressure gradient to tighten and produce some strong and
gusty winds out of the southeast. Due to this, there will be some
winds approaching gale force for the St. Lawrence Island, although
there will likely only be a few isolated areas of the island
actually reaching criteria, and also the duration of this is
expected to be relatively short, given how rapid the decay of this
wave is expected to be. The timing of this is also going to coincide
with high tide to produce some higher waters levels between 1 to 3
feet higher for some of the areas along the coast of the YK Delta,
such as Scammon Bay, Hooper Bay, and Chevak, which may result in low
little to minor issues with some coastal flooding. However, the
strongest winds will not coincide with the highest water levels, so
significant wave run-up or coastal flooding are not expected.

Going into Sunday, as an area of high pressure begins to strengthen
over the Chukchi Sea, it is going to help to draw in much colder air
down from the north over the mainland, with notably colder highs.
There will also be clearing out of a lot of clouds with a more drier
pattern beginning to establish itself, which will contribute to the
colder temperatures. There will likely also be some areas across the
Arctic plains dropping below zero. This cooling trend will carry on
into the beginning of next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 2 and 3... This system in the Bering
Sea this weekend will bring elevated water levels above the normal
high tide line across the West Coast. The highest water levels will
be with the high tide each afternoon from Nunam Iqua south including
Scammon Bay, Hooper Bay, and Chevak. Winds will be primarily
offshore from the southeast, but larger than normal tide cycles due
to the nearly full moon and the strength of the storm will bring in
elevated water. The strongest winds will not coincide with the
highest water levels, so significant wave run-up or coastal flooding
are not expected. A Special Weather Statement has been issued for
this region to cover these impacts.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...this upcoming Monday through Friday.
The overall cooling and drying trend will continue through the mid
part of next week, and the negative PWATs across the majority of the
mainland reflect this. Ensembles have continued to agree with the
solution bringing back more troughing to the region towards the end
of the week, with a slight increase again in the PWATs, with a
slightly better chance of seeing some more snow showers, mainly for
the southern half of the state as a series of low pressure systems
scoot by to the north across the Gulf of Alaska. Conditions look to
remain on the colder and drier side for the Northern half of the
state.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ840-843-844.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-817.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-853.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-850-854.
Gale Warning for PKZ851.
&&

$$

Stewey

904
FXAK67 PAJK 080653
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
953 PM AKST Fri Nov 7 2025

.UPDATE...Update to include 6z TAF issuance and extended long term
discussion...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- A very active weekend in SE AK with forecasted heavy rain across
most of the panhandle, high wind gusts in the southern
panhandle, and heavy snow in the northern panhandle.

- Low pressure sliding north will spread moderate to heavy precip,
mostly rain, to SE AK beginning in the south Saturday afternoon
and lasting through Sunday afternoon.

- As the low enters the southern gulf, high wind gusts upwards of
60 mph, or higher, will spread into the southern panhandle.
Elevated wind gusts around 30 to 50 mph possible for the rest of
the panhandle as well as the low moves north Saturday night.

- Heavy snow is possible in the far northern panhandle ahead of
the low. But this part of the forecast has high uncertainty.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Another front extending from a gale force low in
the northwest gulf is currently swinging through SEAK and will
bring moderate showers tonight, diminishing towards daybreak.
Another round of light snow is expected near White Pass and upper
Haines Highway with around 1 to 2 inches possible. Gusty southerly
to westerly winds along and behind the front, mainly for the
inner channels, will diminish across the south this evening and
across the north overnight. Winds will increase across the south
by around daybreak ahead this weekend`s very impactful storm.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday and Sunday/...This weekend`s snowfall
event has high potential to be a heavy snow maker to the higher
elevations of the Klondike, but for the Haines Highway there is
still some uncertainty. Even higher uncertainty at sea level in
Skagway and Haines.

A low pressure system is forecast to track north through the
eastern gulf through Saturday night. The low will then move
northeast just south of Cross Sound and move inland towards Canada
just north of Juneau. That being said, there is some evidence
that the low could track west and stay in the gulf through Sunday
or turn towards Canada and track south of Juneau on Sunday. These
other tracks would greatly affect the final snowfall amounts but
for now, the following amounts are based on the first track.

Another variable is the precipitation type forecast. As this low
moves north, the front side of the low will have northerly flow,
that would usher in cooler air and support snow. But as the low
tracks north, there will be a southerly push of wind that would
switch the snow to rain. The question is whether or not the
southerly push makes it that far north. There is more evidence in
the models that the switch to rain would happen because of the
southerly push but history and pattern recognition would say snow
would last into Sunday afternoon. So the precip type forecast will
be a challenge.

For Skagway and Klondike highway, depending on the temperature
profile and how much moisture can flow into the area, snowfall
amounts could be as high as 14 to 17 inches, but numbers like that
are on the high end with the lowest confidence. The more likely
amount for the Klondike highway is around 10 to 13 inches. If the
southerly push makes it to Skagway faster than expected, total
snowfall amounts for Skagway would be lower than the 1 to 3 inches
currently forecasted for Skagway.

For Haines and the Haines Highway, ahead of this low, northerly
flow would pull cooler air into the area, which would support
snow. And as the low tracks into Canada, we would expect winds to
stay out of the west, allowing for cooler air to continue to get
pulled in and keep the chances for snow in the forecast. But the
southerly push of wind could usher in warmer air that would switch
the snow to rain. So low confidence on the precip type forecast
for now. But if the temperature profile can stay cold enough to
support snow, heavy snow would be likely late Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Total snowfall amounts for the Haines Highway is
around 6 to 8 inches with 2 to 4 inches for areas closer to sea
level.

/ Tuesday night to Friday / Weakening low over the Northeast gulf
pocket with showers rotating into the panhandle for Wednesday.
Low lingers over the northern gulf to Wednesday morning before
falling apart. A wave from the eastern Pacific moves north to
Haida Gwaii, and may graze the southern panhandle. A weak ridge
across the central gulf towards the panhandle offers some
protection from the storm track out of the south and diverts into
British Columbia. The feature seems to be persistant trying to
hang on over the gulf on Thursday. Along a general long wave
trough over the eastern gulf this will lead to weak onshore flow
but the confused flow south of Alaska Peninsula/Kodiak Island are
is steering the flow pattern away, so limiting the possibility of
significant system through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...The previous front has moved northeast out of the
panhandle and scattered showers are filtering through in the
wake. This shower development is very light and patchy, allowing
much of the panhandle to see broken skies and avoid most of the
rain. A majority of TAF sites are comfortably VFR with CIGs AoA
4000 ft, though the occasional passing shower may bring CIGs down
to AoB 3000 ft for a short period. These clearing VFR conditions
are expected to persist overnight, with winds calming down
everywhere except Skagway and Haines. The next system continues to
push toward the panhandle from the south, with high overcast CIGs
beginning to move in along the southern panhandle overnight into
Saturday. Rain will reach the southern panhandle through Saturday
morning, with gusts to 20 kt and LLWS around 30 kt. As the front
continues to spread north through the panhandle, CIGs will keep
dropping to MVFR with VIS between 4 and 6 SM and gusts increasing
past 30 kt. LLWS will also continue to increase to near 50 kt by
the end of the 24 hour period. Conditions will continue to drop
through Saturday night and into Sunday, with periods of IFR VIS
and heavy rain.

&&

.MARINE...Conditions will rapidly deteriorate on Saturday as a
storm force low advances up from the south, bringing with it a
strong surge of winds and elevated wave heights which will last
through most of the weekend. A gale force front arriving on Monday
will bring with it more winds and elevated seas.

Outside Waters: After a relative respite Friday night, with
prevailing S flow of 15 to 20 kt and wave heights of 8-12 feet,
conditions deteriorate beginning Saturday as a storm force low
moves in from the south. Winds veer out of the E North of the low,
reaching 35 kt through the day, while to the low`s east,
sustained winds of 40 to 45 kt are expected, with storm force
winds (50 kt) for Hecate Strait and the Dixon Entrance Saturday
night. As the low continues moving north, anticipate seas rising
up to around 25 ft, and between 15 and 10 feet for areas south of
Yakutat Bay. Seas then diminish to around 10 to 15 feet by late
Sunday, before increasing on Monday and Tuesday as first a front
sweeps through the gulf, and then a a low moves through the Gulf
on Tuesday.

Inside Waters: S winds overnight flip out of the N as a low moves
up from the South and approaches the panhandle on Saturday. As
the low lifts northward, 20-25 kt northerly winds are expected for
areas north of the low through the daytime and overnight hours,
while southerly winds of 25-35 kt are expected for areas E and S
of the low as the system moves North. Clarence Strait in
particular could see winds beyond even this, with speeds reaching
storm force (50 kt) Saturday night). The northern panhandle will
hold on to N winds the longest, with Lynn Canal not becoming S
until Sunday afternoon or evening. As the low departs through the
latter half of Sunday, expect wind speeds to begin to diminish
down to 15 to 20 kt, before broadly strengthening again on Monday
as a front moves in from the W. Elevated seas are expected through
this time, with the highest seas the latter half of Saturday
through Sunday afternoon.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday
afternoon for AKZ318.
Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday
afternoon for AKZ319.
Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for
AKZ326-328>330-332.
High Wind Warning from 3 PM Saturday to 9 AM AKST Sunday for
AKZ328-332.
High Wind Warning from 6 PM Saturday to 9 AM AKST Sunday for
AKZ330.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-641-642-661-662.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-035-053-643-644-651-652-663-
664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...GJS/Bezenek
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...GFS

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