Graphical Hydro Meteorological Discussion

824
FXAK68 PAFC 030203
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
503 PM AKST Mon Feb 2 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A series of upper-level shortwaves continues to move inland from
the northern Gulf helping to enhance shower activity along a
stalled and weakening front draped along the coast. Temperatures
have warmed into to the mid 30s to lower 40s for locations along
coastal Prince William Sound and eastern Kenai, allowing for the
precipitation to fall as rain. Father inland, temperatures are in
the teens in the Copper River Basin and 20s and 30s from Homer
north into the Mat-Su Valleys. Any precipitation that is making it
over the coastal mountains is falling, and will continue to fall,
as a very light wintry mix. Snow levels are currently around
2,000 ft.

The forecast looks on track a much stronger front will lift
across the Gulf tonight into Tuesday morning with models
developing a second surface low just off the southern coast of
Kodiak Island by mid-morning Tuesday. The pressure gradient will
rapidly strengthen over the western Gulf with widespread gales and
a swath of storm force winds developing by Tuesday morning from
Middleton Island to the Barren Islands and Shelikof Strait. This
east-northeast oriented swath of strong winds is an ideal
direction to see strong winds across parts of Kodiak Island. Wind
gusts up to 60 mph will work across the northern end of Kodiak
Island, with typical spots helping to channel the winds. In
addition, the warm and moist airmass will bring periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall for Kodiak Island. Modest rainfall
amounts are also expected for the immediate Gulf coastal areas
along the eastern Kenai Peninsula.

Lee-side areas north and west of the coastal mountains continue
to look mostly downsloped with a dry northerly wind through
Tuesday, likely keeping any freezing rain in the morning hours to
just a few scattered sprinkles. By Tuesday evening, however, flow
aloft will become more southerly and some stronger shortwaves
moving over should be enough to kick some light rain into the
western Kenai, Anchorage, and potentially the Mat-Su Valleys.
Warmer air will also likely push into Valdez and the southern half
of the Copper River Basin by tomorrow afternoon, allowing any
snow to mix with and change to rain for Valdez and, perhaps, a
wintry mix along the Edgerton Highway.

The warm and wet pattern along the coast will continue through
the week as multiple storms move through. Well above normal
temperatures will continue everywhere in Southcentral.

- TM/CJ


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Thursday evening)...

Key Messages:

1) A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the Northern Bristol
Bay Coast and Inland Bristol Bay from 3 AM to 9 PM AKST Tuesday
for expected mixed precipitation in the form of freezing rain and
snow.

2) Freezing rain and snow possible along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast
for Wednesday and Thursday.

3) A warming trend ensues across mainland Southwest Alaska the
rest of today through Wednesday.

Southerly to southeasterly flow in the lower to middle levels
will ensue across much of Southwest Alaska Tuesday through the end
of this week as warmer air brought in from the North Pacific.
Temperatures will continue to be slow to warm above freezing
across most of Southwest until Tuesday night. An upper-level
disturbance will lift northward from the North Pacific to over the
Bristol Bay area by late Tuesday morning. Warmer air aloft will
accompany this disturbance. Thus, a wintry mix of freezing rain
and snow is likely across Dillingham and northward to Koliganek
late Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening before temperatures
warm further at the surface. A Winter Weather Advisory has been
issued for the Northern Bristol Bay Coast and Inland Bristol Bay
to bring awareness to the freezing threat. Highest accumulations
of ice, up to a tenth of inch, look to occur across the New
Stuyahok and Koliganek areas Tuesday. However, any amount of ice
accrual could be hazardous.

A warming trend is expected through Wednesday. Much of Bristol
Bay will reach above the freezing mark by Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning with any leftover precipitation turning to rain.
A wintry mix of freezing rain and snow is possible across the
Kuskokwim Delta Coast both Wednesday and Thursday as additional
upper-level disturbances lift north from the North Pacific and
through the eastern Bering Sea as warmer air works in aloft.

The coldest area of the domain will be the central/western Bering
Sea, as well as the Central/Western Aleutian Chain, thanks in
part due to cold northern flow from Russia. This cold northerly
flow will continue through much of the week as snow shower
activity also continues. The front of a North Pacific low will
pivot westward across the southern Alaska Peninsula on Wednesday
bringing snow turning to a rain/snow mix to locations such as Cold
Bay and Nelson Lagoon. This feature will help to enhance snow
showers across Adak and Atka through Thursday as the surface low
lifts into the Bering by then. By Thursday evening, an occluded
low near the Kamchatka Peninsula sends its front to the vicinity
of the Western Aleutians. Due to this low being in its
occluded/weakening phase, cold air looks to remain in place across
Shemya for snow showers to be maintained.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Friday through Monday)...

Late this week, the upper-level longwave pattern appears fairly
similar to today with a ridge over western North America extending
up into mainland Alaska with a broad, complex low pressure system
sitting several hundred miles south of Kodiak Island. The main
difference will be that deep longwave troughing over the far
western Bering Sea will promote a much stormier pattern heading
into the weekend and early next week. The complex low south of
Kodiak Island lifts into the Gulf through the weekend, bringing
wet, rainy weather along the coast from the Pacific side of the
Alaska Peninsula up to the north Gulf coast. A deformation band
associated with troughing to the north/northwest of the low may
allow precipitation to spread into the southern mainland in the
form of rain, freezing rain, or possibly snow for the coldest
locations.

The main feature to track in the long term, however, is a compact,
moderately-deep low moving up from the North Pacific into the
vicinity of the eastern Aleutians/Alaska Peninsula on Sunday. This
low, depending on track, could lead to various hazards across the
Aleutians, Bering Sea, and Southwest Alaska, including high winds
and blowing snow/blizzard conditions. Strong winds will be
associated with a sting jet on the south side of the low, which
has the potential to bring 75 mph wind gusts to the Eastern
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula if the track shown by the EC and
GEM verifies. However, the alternative solution shown by the GFS
keeps the low south of the peninsula, which would spare the region
from the strongest winds and impacts. There is a decent potential
for the low to track into the Bering Sea, though, towards
Southwest Alaska. The low looks to quickly lose its tap of warm
air as it moves north, which means precipitation mainly in the
form of snow along the Southwest Alaska coast would be easily
blown around leading to significantly reduced visibility. As the
track is uncertain at this point, there is low confidence in the
resulting impacts at this lead time. The active storm track
continues into next week with another compact low developing south
of the Aleutians on Monday, with further potential to skirt the
Aleutians or track north into the Bering Sea.

Quesada

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to continue through the
period...though a few brief drops to MVFR are possible as
elevated showers pass through this afternoon and evening. Another
round of showers expected Tuesday afternoon and evening with a
stronger front lifting north over the terminal. Near freezing
temperatures today will rise above freezing by Tuesday,
mitigating any light freezing rain concerns with any showers
passing over the terminal. North to northeasterly winds will
increase by 12-15Z Tuesday morning ahead of the incoming front.

&&


$$

769
FXAK69 PAFG 030040
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
340 PM AKST Mon Feb 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Periods of blizzard conditions persist from Point Lay
to Point Hope and south to Kivalina. Blowing snow will continue
across the Arctic Coast through the week with periods of
visibility as low as one half mile at times, along with wind
chills between -40 and -50 F. A warm front moving through the
Interior will bring a trace to 4 inches of snow across almost the
whole area south of the Brooks Range Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday with some blowing snow over the higher terrain as this
moves through.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Temperatures for the coldest valleys will reach down to around
-10F to -20F through Tuesday morning.

- Isolated light snow showers will continue across the Northern
Interior through Monday night

- A warm front will bring snow accumulations of a trace to 4
inches across the whole area beginning Tuesday afternoon in the
eastern Interior and spreading northwest through Wednesday.

- Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the Dalton,
Elliott, and Steese Highway Summits from Tuesday through
Wednesday night for strong winds combined with blowing and
falling snow.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Northeast winds will continue to increase across Western Alaska
tonight into Tuesday, with strongest winds expected along the
West Coast and across higher elevations. Gusty winds may lead to
areas of blowing snow at times through mid-week.

- A dip on temperatures is expected on Tuesday, before a warming
trends sets by midweek with highs into the 10s/20s above zero.
Chevak and Hooper Bay may approach freezing on Wednesday as warm
air surges northward with a low from the North Pacific.

- Light snow chances will increase across Western Alaska Wednesday
into Thursday, but with light accumulations expected.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- An extended period of blowing snow and low visibility is
expected through at least mid-week across the Arctic Coast,
with a mix of Blizzard Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories in
effect through Wednesday. These could potentially be expanded
later in the week.

- Light snow showers over the Arctic Plain will move east tonight
into the Yukon and NW Territories.

- Temperatures will be mainly in the -20F to -30F range this week
with even colder wind chills down to -40 to -50F.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...A ridge of high pressure
extends from near the Bay Area of California north through
southeast Alaska and westward across Interior Alaska. A trough
extends from the Canadian Archipelago southeast over the North
Slope. Light snow continues over the Brooks Range and west to
Kotzebue in the deformation zone between these two features. This
snow will push east tonight and taper off Tuesday morning as the
Arctic High to the northwest of Wrangel Island expands eastward.
At the surface, a 1045 mb high persists in the Arctic as a 952 mb
low drifts northward from the North Pacific into the Gulf of
Alaska. Surface gradients tighten across the White Mountains and
Brooks Range Tuesday as these 2 main surface features drift closer
together, leading to strong winds and areas of blowing snow over
Interior Summits. By Tuesday evening, a low will have spun off the
main center of the Gulf of Alaska low, moving to Sand Point at 967
mb with a warm front stretched eastward from the YK Delta to
Fairbanks to the NW Territories. This will bring a quick shot of
snow to most of the Interior Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.
This low will drift into the Central Bering Sea and weaken to 983
mb by Thursday afternoon.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...The upper low over the Canadian
Archipelago looks to finally make headway pushing southwest over
Alaska by early Saturday. This will bring much colder air over the
North Slope for early next week. Periods of southerly flow will
bring snow into the Alaska Range at times this weekend and early
next week, but snow looks to largely remain south of Fairbanks. As
the Arctic High persists, expect periods of strong northeast winds
from Point Lay to Point Hope and through the Bering Strait to St.
Lawrence Island.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ801.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ802>805.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ815.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ832-834.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801>803.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804-805.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807-813-814-859-860.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
Gale Warning for PKZ810.
Gale Warning for PKZ811-812-856>858.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.
Gale Warning for PKZ816-817-854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850-852.
Gale Warning for PKZ851.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.
&&

$$

Chriest

942
FXAK67 PAJK 030609 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
909 PM AKST Mon Feb 2 2026

.UPDATE...For 06z TAF Issuance and Aviation Discussion

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Multiple weak fronts look to move over the panhandle through
early next week, bringing increases in wind and precipitation
chances, with breaks in between.

- A possible atmospheric river could move into the southern half
of the panhandle by mid next week. Flooding and an increase in
winds are possible, with a hydrologic outlook issued in
response. Accumulating snow near Haines and Skagway highways are
also a concern.

&&

.SHORT TERM...The next atmospheric river is upon us, with warm air
advection pushing in from the south, significant divergence aloft,
and moderate to heavy rainfall for much of the panhandle. This
warm air advection not only looks to assist in efficient rainfall
with snow levels 5000 to 7000 ft, but also is expected to bring in
very warm temperatures for much of the panhandle. Temperatures in
the southern panhandle could exceed 50 degrees on both Tuesday
and Wednesday, which for Ketchikan specifically, would rank it in
the top 5 for all time highs on those particular days.

For rainfall, there is good consistency on timing for onset of
heavy rain, between 6 PM and 9 PM in the southern panhandle, and
between 3 AM and 6 AM for the Icy Strait corridor. Looking to see
these heavy rates on Tuesday move northward as well into Haines,
Skagway, and the highways. With the very high snow levels for this
time of year, expecting precipitation type to largely stay as rain
throughout the event. The one exception is White Pass, which could
get some snow accumulation; however, with strong southerly flow
coinciding with heaviest rates, expecting wet bulbs to be above
freezing and much less accumulation to occur.

For rainfall amounts through Wednesday morning, sticking with the
2.5 to 4.0 inches, as run to run consistency seem to support these
numbers. Naturally, we will likely see higher amounts at
elevation; however, for those near sea level, there is only around
a 10% chance to exceed 4 inches.

.LONG TERM...For the long range forecast, SE AK continues to
remain under the eastern flank of a broad mid/upper level trough
for the foreseeable future. While the main areas of low pressure
will still be centered well to the west, this will nevertheless
set the stage for fronts and shortwaves to continue to progress
through the area.

The next wave of note will arrive on Wednesday. Fog which formed
late Tuesday night across parts of the area will fade away as a gale
force front moves up from the south. While this front will not be as
strong as the previous system, still anticipate windy conditions for
the southern panhandle, gales for the outer coast, small crafts for
the inner channels, and periods of moderate to heavy rain. In the
wake of this system showers and diminishing winds are expected on
Thursday, although some areas may break out and see the sun on
occasion. Shower coverage will likely diminish on Friday before
another front arrives from the South on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION.../ Through Tuesday night / The next incoming system is
beginning to impact the southern panhandle with a warm front
bringing rain and dropping CIGs to AoB 2000ft as of 9pm Monday.
These conditions will spread northward overnight Monday into
Tuesday as heavier precipitation moves into the area with the
follow up cold frontal band. This will also lead to increasing
winds aloft and at the surface, with LLWS expected to spread from
south to north through the period, with the southern panhandle
and outer coast seeing the brunt of it. While the main core of
surface winds will remain offshore in the gulf due to the track of
the surface low, gusty winds will make their way into the inner
channels and last through the afternoon hours and into the evening
Tuesday. Brief break Tuesday night before another system slides
in from the south bringing deteriorating conditions once more
beginning Wednesday morning. This break could lead to some patchy
fog development depending upon the extent of cloud cover over the
panhandle overnight Tuesday, particularly for the northern inner
channels.

&&

.MARINE...

Inside Waters: Winds will increase in the southern panhandle
tonight to gale force by 3 AM tonight, with increasing winds
moving south to north. Expecting sustained gales to largely be
localized to the southern half of Clarence Strait, but possible to
see gale force gusts all the way up to Midway Island and Point
Couverden. Tuesday night is looking increasingly like the
southerly push will succeed in pushing into Lynn Canal, with fresh
to strong southerly breezes continuing through the night. Early
Wednesday morning, winds are expected to shift to the north, as
another front moves into the area.

Outside waters: Widespread gales to strong gales are expected to
ramp up in the following hours as the next frontal band moves over
the area. Expecting to see some barrier jet develop with around a
30% chance of sustained storm force winds near areas east of Cape
St. Elias. Otherwise, much more likely to see winds increase to
strong gales by late Tuesday morning before diminishing late
Tuesday afternoon as the energy moves inland. Seas, in turn, look
to rapidly increase to 25-30 ft, particularly in the NE gulf
coast, from the longer sustained strong winds over a large area of
fetch.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to noon AKST Tuesday for AKZ323-328.
Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM AKST Tuesday for AKZ330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-021-022-031>035.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...GFS
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...NC

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