Graphical Hydro Meteorological Discussion

481
FXAK68 PAFC 160036
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
436 PM AKDT Sun Mar 15 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Wednesday)...

Winter`s grip continues to hold firmly in place as yet another
substantial push of Arctic air begins to filter into
Southcentral. The upper level pattern over the region is becoming
a bit more complex, with two separate shortwave troughs over the
Gulf and western Alaska Range beginning to interact with one
another. These features will soon consolidate into a large and
very deep upper level low over the Gulf as very cold and dry air
continues to stream into much of Southcentral off to the north of
this feature.

In the near term, snow showers are continuing to move into Cordova
and Valdez, while steadier snow persists across much of the Copper
Basin. Clouds have managed to mostly clear up for the time being
across much of the Susitna Valley down to the Kenai Peninsula, but
some upper level cloud cover bending back west around the trough
over the Gulf could fill back in as the evening progresses. Gusty
gap winds are also already picking up as cold air advection
increases and as a developing north-south pressure gradient
tightens up. Some of these gap winds are causing areas of blowing
snow, including near Valdez and Whittier. Very strong and gusty
winds are leading to more significant blowing snow through
Thompson Pass, where a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect
through tomorrow afternoon due to visibilities reduced to a half
mile or less at times.

Looking farther out into the week ahead, very little change is
expected to the broader picture as the Gulf low stalls out close
to Middleton Island while cold, dry air continues to filter into
Southcentral from the north, leading to a steady cooling trend
through midweek. Strong northerly gap winds will peak in
intensity for most places on Monday as the surface low in the gulf
and the strong pressure gradient to the north both reach their
maximum strength. Some of the strongest winds across the outlook
area are expected to affect marine waters north of Kodiak Island.
Across Shelikof Strait and west of the Barren Islands, heavy to
extreme freezing spray rates are likely through Tuesday due to the
combination of winds up to Storm Force and air temperatures in
the single digits to 10s above zero. Over land, the Thompson Pass,
Seward, Whittier and Palmer areas will likely see some of the
strongest wind gusts. Wind Advisories are now set to go into
effect later this evening into Monday for both Seward and the Mat
Valley, where wind gusts up to 50 mph can be expected at times.

By Wednesday, gap winds will begin to trend down somewhat as the
Gulf low begins to weaken and as northerly cold air advection
wanes. Much below average temperatures will persist, with high
temperatures in many locations still struggling to get above the
values for our normal low temperatures for mid March.

-AS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Today through Tuesday)...

Minimal changes through the middle of the work week. Blocking
ridge will remain anchored over the western Aleutians deep into
the week while northerly flow remains ever present. Otherwise the
previous discussion covered everything well.

---previous discussion---

Northerly flow continues over Southwest Alaska and the Bering
Sea. The large blocking ridge visible in satellite imagery
continues to remain in place centered over the western Aleutians.
This persistent pattern continues into this week, with relatively
inactive weather expected across Southwest Alaska, the Bering Sea,
and the Aleutians. A weak shortwave moving north-to-south across
coastal Southwest has resulted in some light snow showers across
the Kuskokwim Delta early this morning and are expected to quickly
come to an end.

An Arctic trough digging southwards across the Interior and
stretching into the Gulf of Alaska will again allow for northerly
to northwesterly winds to strengthen across Southwest Alaska, the
Alaska Peninsula, and the eastern Bering Sea. Winds are expected
to strengthen throughout the day today, and will remain elevated
through at least the first half of this week as low pressure
develops in the Gulf while the ridge over the western Bering
remains nearly stationary. These stronger winds combined with low-
level cold air advection will lead to areas of heavy freezing
spray in coastal waters along the ice edge and the Pacific-side of
the Alaska Peninsula. Periods of blowing snow and reduced
visibilities will also be possible for locations including the
Kuskokwim Delta coast and portions of the Alaska Peninsula as
winds pick up and antecedent conditions remain favorable. This
pattern is expected to remain persistent through much of the week,
with any variation in the forecast due to weak shortwaves
rounding the ridge and promoting snow showers along the Aleutian
Chain.

-JH

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

The long-term period begins with stubborn high pressure
persisting across the western Bering Sea and Western Aleutians
through Thursday. There are indications that this high pressure
system will slowly move eastward to the central Bering and Central
Aleutians through the end of next weekend. This would open the
door to moisture from a series of North Pacific fronts making it
over the Western Aleutians while the Central Aleutians remain
relatively quiet.

Meanwhile, the Eastern Aleutians, the Pribilof Islands, and
Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) will continue to be within cold northerly
flow coming off of the Bering through the long-term period.
Therefore, in this northerly flow pattern, expect snow showers
from time to time across the locations mentioned above through the
long-term period. Mainland Southwest Alaska looks to mainly stay
dry and cold as the current pattern persists. Any snow showers
will remain confined to the mountain ranges.

Out east towards Southcentral Alaska, a low pressure system will
remain in the Gulf of Alaska through the long-term period. This
will help to maintain enhanced gap winds through the favored
terrain and passes. Expect the majority of precipitation, in the
form of snow, to remain across the coast and coastal mountain
ranges of Prince William Sound, the Eastern Kenai Peninsula, and
the southern facing slopes of the Chugach Range along the north
Gulf Coast. Most inland locations look to remain on the dry side
with maybe portions of the southern Copper River Basin seeing some
snow showers from time to time making it across the Chugach;
especially Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist through Monday.
Northerly winds will increase through this evening and then
remain gusty through Monday.

&&


$$

467
FXAK69 PAFG 152316
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
316 PM AKDT Sun Mar 15 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold, quiet, and sunny Sunday across most of Alaska today!
While the majority of the Interior remains quiet and very cold
going into the new week, active weather ramps up along both the
West and Arctic Coasts as well as through the Alaska range.
Watching for several rounds of snow and blowing snow along the
Arctic Coast through the week with periods of near blizzard
conditions possible from Deadhorse eastward. Isolated areas of
blowing snow today on the West Coast diminish tonight, but an
extended period of strong northerly winds and blowing snow arrives
by Wednesday. Northerly winds also ramp up tonight for the Alaska
range passes where a Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for the
potential for blowing snow and near blizzard conditions the next
few days.


&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Well below normal to near record cold temperatures for this time
of year continue this upcoming week with lows once again in the
30s and 40s this week.

- North winds increase through the Alaska Range passes tonight
through mid next week. A Winter Storm Warning for near blizzard
conditions has been issued for the Alaska range passes.

- Increasing snow chances tonight and Monday for the far eastern
Interior and Upper Tanana Valley. Minor accumulations expected.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Blowing snow around the Kotzebue sound and northern Seward
Peninsula today should diminish tonight

- Below average temperature continue into next week, however even
colder air arrives mid to late week with lows in the -20s to
-30s

- Strong northerly winds increase through the Bering and along all
of the West Coast Wednesday into the end of the week. Widespread
blowing snow and near blizzard conditions possible.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Light to moderate westerly winds across the Arctic Coast through
the week. 10 to 20 mph generally with higher gusts possible.
Periods of reduced visibility due to light snow and blowing
snow possible.

- Watching the Eastern Arctic Coast around and east of Deadhorse
for periods of near blizzard conditions through the week. Worst
conditions late Monday through Wednesday and late Thursday
through Saturday.

- Near or below normal temperatures continue



&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...

Northerly flow and upper troughing over the state will keep
conditions very cold through the period while active weather is
confined to the coasts and the Alaska range. Currently, a strong
570dm ridge remains in place over the Bering, blocking any weather
systems from the Pacific from impacting the region from the south
or west. The main features impacting surface conditions through
the next week are weak shortwaves coming up and over the ridge or
dropping south from the high arctic, increasing winds and blowing
snow along the Coasts. Moisture advection from the north is very
weak to nonexistent, so expecting any light snow chances to remain
along the Coasts, while the interior remains cold and dry.
Another upper low sets up in the Northern Gulf today and meanders
around for the next week, bringing light snow chances to the far
southeast Interior and windy conditions to Alaska Range Passes.


For today, a strong surface trough is centered over Northern
Alaska, while a moisture starved upper level shortwave drops
south into the Gulf inducing cyclogenesis around the Prince
Williams Sound. With little to no moisture available for the
passing shortwave, the majority of Northern Alaska remains quite
clear today with the exception of the Upper Tanana Valley. Weak
southerly flow ahead of the trough is bringing moisture over the
mountains and into the far southeast Interior. Observations
indicate scattered snow showers today; however expect an increase
in coverage and intensity of snow over the next 24 hours as the
upper low in the Gulf strengthens, increasing wrap around moisture
and forcing for ascent. While only a couple inches of snow is
expected in the Tanana Valley and up to fortymile country, the
northerly gradient setting up along the Alaska range may make for
dangerous travel conditions. A Winter Storm Warning has been
issued for the Alaska Range passes through Wednesday morning as
northerly winds increase, leading to periods of blowing snow and
reduced visibility. Impacts from this low in the Gulf should
remain confined to the far SE Interior and ALaska range while the
rest of the interior stays mainly clear and dry.

Along the Arctic Coast and North Slope, daily chances for clouds
and light snow exist due to numerous shortwaves dropping south out
of the Arctic. At the surface, a polar low meanders through the
high Arctic, keeping a tight pressure gradient along the Coast,
especially along and east of Deadhorse. Each shortwave rotating
into the state tightens that gradient, leading to periods of
stronger winds, blowing snow, and light snow. There are some model
discrepancies over when the worst conditions are expected, however
for now the highest confidence in near blizzard or blizzard
conditions is late Monday through Wednesday, then again towards
Friday and Saturday. Light snow showers have been observed
throughout the North Slope today with an increase in coverage late
Monday and Tuesday, then again Tuesday night for the NW Arctic
Coast.

Along the west coast, a strong northerly pressure gradient on the
east side of the Bering sea high has resulted in gusty northerly
winds today. Worst conditions have been along the Northern coast
of the Seward Peninsula as blowing snow off the sea ice has
resulted in visibility at a 1/2 mile at times. Expect winds to
diminish tonight and remain fairly light through Tuesday until the
next shortwave and period of winds arrives by Wednesday.

Temperatures remain below average for the majority of the state
through the short term period, becoming even colder heading into
the new week. Each shortwave dropping south out of the Arctic will
also bring reinforcing shots of cold air, dropping 850mb
temperatures into the -30C range... almost record cold for this
time of year. The deepening arctic airmass will result in daily
lows nearing record territory in interior valleys and any area
that clears out with light winds. Expect widespread -30s to even
-40s each night beginning tonight.


&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...

Largely the same pattern going into the long term period with a
strong ridge over the Bering and upper lows over the high arctic
and in the Northern Gulf. The interior remains dry and very cold
going into the latter half of next week while active weather once
again stays along the coasts.

An extended period of strong northerly winds is expected for all
of the West Coast and Bering Wednesday through Friday as a strong
system drops south out of the arctic and increases the pressure
gradient against the Bering sea high. Along and ahead of the
shortwave, expect a period of light snow to track from north to
south along the west coast beginning Tuesday night...setting the
stage for widespread blowing snow Wednesday and Thursday. Based on
the set up, Winter Weather Advisories and Blizzard products may
be needed for the Bering Straight, areas around the Kotzebue
Sound, and along the NW Arctic coast for blowing snow and low
visibility.

Similar situation expected for the Northeast Arctic Coast as long
range guidance has been hinting at the potential for high winds
Friday and Saturday. Been watching this signal for a few days now
with confidence increasing for another round of near blizzard
conditions up there. Will issue products accordingly; however
several other strong wind and blowing snow events are expected for
this strong one, so expect active weather to persist for portions
of the Arctic Coast.


Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ848-850.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
&&

$$

CRM

486
FXAK67 PAJK 160636
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1036 PM AKDT Sun Mar 15 2026

.UPDATE...Update to include 06Z TAF issuance...
The strong low pressure continues to lift north along the gulf
coast and is expected to push onshore north of Sitka overnight
with the attendant front lifting north through the panhandle.
Drier, easterly flow has delayed the start of the heavier snow for
the northern panhandle. The GOES snowfall rate product has the
heaviest snow south of the Icy Strait Corridor slowly creeping
north. Have lowered storm total snow accumulations down to 4 to 8
inches for the Winter Storm Warnings. Warmer air south of the
front has switched snow over to rain this evening or will by early
morning. Strongest winds have pushed east of POW. Gusty winds
still possible for Ketchikan and Annette Island for the next few
hours.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- A strong area of low pressure will move up from the northern
Pacific, strengthening off the outer coastal areas of southeast
Alaska through Monday.

- Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories are in
effect through Monday, with highest accumulations expected along
the Icy Strait Corridor and Hyder.

- Periods of snow will continue through most of next week as a
cold airmass wrapping around a broad low stays over the eastern
Gulf of Alaska keeping a pattern supportive of bands of heavier
snow showers eastward across the Alaska Panhandle Tuesday
through late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../through Tuesday/
No major changes to ongoing forecast or message from this early
afternoon as a strong front continues to push into the panhandle.
Winter Storm Warnings, High Wind Warnings, Winter Weather
Advisories, and Wind Advisories remain in effect through early
Monday morning.

Main changes from the early morning forecast generally contained
to the southern panhandle this afternoon, adjusted snowfall totals
across Prince of Wales, Ketchikan, and Annette Island with
surface temps about 5 degrees warmer than initially forecast,
resulting in predominately rain or rain/snow mix to start off, and
tampered snow totals across the area slightly with some starter
WAA working inland. Model guidance continues to struggle with the
track of this low, with most deterministic global models keeping a
more defined low making landfall from Sitka northward Cross
Sound. However, recent trends in the hi-res guidance are pulling
this low track a bit further south of Baranof and accelerating it
into the panhandle as a low in the the Gulf takes over, decreasing
overall expected precipitation amounts and resulting snowfall
accumulations.

For Haines and Skagway, tough snowfall forecast continues. With
the track of the low pulling a bit further south, thinking highest
snowfall accums of 4 to 8 inches will be located along the upper
elevations of the Klondike Highway near White pass and along the
Chilkat Peninsula near Haines.

For the Icy Strait corridor, including Juneau, expecting around 6
to 12 inches of snowfall through Monday, with locally higher
amounts expected. Snow characteristic will turn from light and
fluffy becoming heavier wet snow into early Monday morning with
lower snow ratios near 10 to 1 along the Icy Strait Corridor. The
main forecast challenge through the evening and into early Monday
morning will be the track of this low, which will change the
timing of the rain/snow transition and how much resulting snowfall
accumulations we will see.

For the southern far panhandle, precipitation type has changed
over to predominately snow as of 1pm with the band of heavier
precip associated with the front bringing cooler temperatures
aloft to the surface. Wet heavy snowfall rates as high a 1 inch
per hour will be possible through Sunday night across the southern
panhandle before transitioning to rain or rain/snow mix from
Sitka to Kake and southward by Monday morning.

As for wind, the southern panhandle and gulf have begun to see
strong gusts as the low has moved northward. So far, the strongest
land wind gusts have been near Saxman Seaport and Salmon Landing
in Ketchikan. At these areas, we have seen gusts up to 50 mph.
There have also been wind gusts near 45 mph over southern Prince
of Wales Island, Annette Island, and near Pillar Rock. The main
forecast change to wind was over downtown Juneau and South Douglas
Island. This was due to increased SE winds coming out of Taku
Inlet starting this afternoon. A wind Advisory has been issued for
these areas due to these winds expected to continue into early
Monday morning. Now for the northern panhandle, winds will remain
northerly as this low tightens the north to south gradient as it
moves northward. These winds will begin to relax Monday as the low
dissipates.

.LONG TERM.../ Wednesday through Friday/
Simple message:
Onshore flow drives snow showers for the Panhandle Wed into the
weekend, with varying snow amounts and potential for training snow
showers. Likely a rain/snow mix for coastal locations.

By Wednesday a longwave trough positioned over the Gulf of Alaska
will mature and stagnate, being reinforced by pulses of
shortwaves sliding south from western AK. Cold air will continue
to rotate around the backside of the parent system over the Gulf,
with temperatures at 850mb holding near -10C for most of the
region through the remainder of the week. At the surface, the
dynamics aloft will continue to feed a surface low in the northern
gulf, driving onshore flow across the region. Keeping things
simple here, we will see continued snow showers across the
Panhandle as cold air flows over the relatively warm Gulf waters,
creating a complex and dynamic snow forecast. Expect showers, with
impacts and precip type driven by shower intensity, location, and
the potential for training snow showers. Midweek to the weekend
will mirror the previous snow shower regime, with ample
opportunity for forecasts to bust. One item of note is the longer
path that cold air at the surface will rotate around the parent
system in the gulf, which could drive more vigorous instability
but result in warmer surface temperatures along the coast. This
could bring a rain/snow mix to the central and southern coastal
locations under lighter showers, with heavier bursts of precip
allowing all snow to push down to the surface. The exception will
be the northern Panhandle and Yakutat where cold temperatures will
keep the precip type as snow.

For reference, -10C at 850mb this time of year is near the 10th
percentile for both Yakutat and Annette sounding sites, with
surface temperatures forecasted to be at normal along the coast to
slightly below normal for more interior locations.

&&

.AVIATION...Largely MVFR conditions prevail as a strong front
makes its way north through the panhandle overnight. Periods of
VFR are still possible for the next few hours in the northern
panhandle as the edge of the front begins to reach them. As the
front moves overhead, IFR to LIFR conditions will be likely during
heavier bands of snow, bringing CIGs down to AoB 1500 ft with
limited VIS. Areas of the northern panhandle still being
influenced by strong northerly winds may see blowing snow, as well
as locations that are being impacted by the strong winds
associated with the front as it passes over. Gusts up to 30 to 35
kts will be possible in times of the strongest winds, though these
are expected to calm down to AoB 10 kts behind the front.

Any locations south of a line from Petersburg to Sitka are either
seeing fully rain, or are beginning to transition over to a
rain/snow mix and then inevitably rain. Conditions are expected to
continue to deteriorate through the next few hours for these
areas of the southern panhandle before steadily improving towards
the end of the period. These improved conditions may not be VFR,
as low CIGs and continued snow showers will keep VIS lowered.

For the northern panhandle, snow is expected to prevail for the
whole period. Along the Icy Strait Corridor, conditions are now
beginning to deteriorate as snow moves in. A band of snow has made
it up to Haines and Skagway which is especially bringing down
conditions in Haines, though conditions are expected to improve
through the early morning before the main impactful snow reaches
them. LLWS at around 35 to 40 kts for most of the southern
panhandle persists along the front, though this is expected to
drop off quickly as the main impactful winds move out with the
front. Juneau also is seeing some LLWS, though this is mainly due
to strong winds coming out of Taku Inlet and is also expected to
diminish behind the front.

&&

.MARINE...
Inside (Inner Channels): Northerly winds continue across the
northern inner channels while southerly winds begin to surge
through the southern inside waters due to a strong low pressure
system pushing northward. This low pressure system has brought
gale force winds into Clarence Strait, Southern Chatham, and
Sumner Strait. Currently the strongest winds are located near Cape
Decision and Salmon Landing. There are also currently strong
northerly winds out of Lynn Canal near Point Couverden. As this
low moves north, it will strengthen the north/south oriented
gradient allowing for a period of near gale to gale force winds
throughout Lynn Canal. Another area to watch will be Cross Sound
as winds are currently 30 kts from the east. As the low pushes
northward, there will be a brief period where these winds quickly
become southwest before once again becoming easterly. By Tuesday
winds throughout the inner channels are expected to be southerly
with the exception of far northern Lynn Canal.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A strong low is currently
moving northward into the southern gulf. This low has brought
sustained gale force winds near 40 kts with storm force gusts near
50 kts into dixon entrance and to areas west of Prince of Wales
Island. These stronger winds will continue over the southern gulf
as the low continues to move northward to west of Baranof Island.
These strong winds will continue into late tonight before
diminishing. A couple of things also occur as this low moves
northward. First, strong northeasterly winds push out of Cross
Sound into the central gulf. Then as the low moves northward,
winds quickly become southwesterly as another low develops in the
far northern gulf. Along with strong winds, an area of 15 to 20 ft
significant wave heights pushes into the southern gulf this
evening. These waves subside to 8 to 10 ft starting late tonight
through Monday.

Then to start the week, the low in the northern gulf will
continue to allow widespread fresh to strong breezes of 17 to 27
kts across the gulf. At this time, showers will be the main story
of the area allowing for times of reduced visibility and gusty
winds. This showery pattern then lasts through the week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM AKDT Monday for AKZ318>322-325.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ323.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ324.
Wind Advisory until 1 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ325-330.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ326.
High Wind Warning until 1 AM AKDT Monday for AKZ332.

MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-644-662>664.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031-032-034-035-053-
641>643-651-652-661-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NM/EAB
LONG TERM...AP/DS
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...EAB

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau