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Alaska Drought Monitor


000
FXAK68 PAFC 260019
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
419 PM AKDT Sat May 25 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Tuesday)...

A weak low in the Gulf of Alaska will track slowly southward over
the next several days, allowing weak ridging to work in over
Southcentral Alaska. As the low dips southward, its front,
currently just off the north Gulf coast, will retreat, allowing
precipitation to taper off tonight along the coast. Drier
northerly flow over Southcentral has brought with it warmer
temperatures and sunnier skies, yielding modest instability which
will continue to fuel rain showers across the Susitna Valley,
Copper Basin, and moving in from Yukon. Conditions are very
marginal for thunderstorm development, but an isolated lightning
strike or two from a particularly strong shower cannot be ruled
out. The more stable airmass over Cook Inlet, indicated on
satellite by a lack of clouds this afternoon, is likely to prevent
much in the way of shower activity for Anchorage and the western
Kenai Peninsula.

Tonight, an upper-level easterly shortwave will track from near
Yakutat into the eastern Copper River Basin, bringing a band of
steadier rainfall. This feature will propagate east to west,
pushing toward the Talkeetna Mountains, Anchorage, and the Kenai
Peninsula for Sunday, though its impacts are somewhat uncertain.
Chances of precipitation will increase for these areas, though
the nature of the rainfall is somewhat uncertain. Generally, a
strong-enough shortwave would lead to increased cloud cover,
cooler temperatures, and stratiform rain. However, some of the
high resolution model guidance indicates that the shortwave
weakens, allowing it to lose some of the thicker cloud cover and
instead promote more showery precipitation. This alternative
solution would mean more sunshine and warmer temperatures stick
around.

Sunday night, another (stronger) easterly wave tracks in from
Yukon, bringing another round of stratiform rainfall to much of
the Copper River Basin on Monday. There is some uncertainty in
the track of this second wave, based primarily on the evolution
of a weak ridge that begins to build over the western half of
Southcentral. The ridge looks to prevent further westward
progression of the shortwave, keeping the bulk of the precipitation
over the Copper Basin through Tuesday, but it can be difficult
for models to resolve the strength and location of weak features
such as this one several days in advance. As a result, some
solutions place the ridge further west, and allow for wetter
conditions to nudge west toward Anchorage, the Mat-Su Valleys,
and the Kenai Peninsula by Tuesday. Regardless of the eventual
solution, expect continued generally cool and cloudy weather with
the occasional break of sun as well as the occasional shower.

- Quesada

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA AND THE
ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

An upper-level trough remains over the Bering this afternoon
currently stretched from the northern Bering into the Gulf. This
feature will weaken overnight as an area of high pressure builds
across the central Bering through Sunday. Shower activity will
decrease this afternoon, however, with increased solar heating
models are hinting at some instability developing in the late
afternoon and early evening hours Saturday and Sunday.

With the departure of the upper low over Southwest, weak northerly
flow will become more prominent the next couple of days. Sunday
sees the arrival of a front into the Western and Central Aleutians,
which will increase wind and showers over the western half of the
Aleutian Chain. The front weakens late Monday as it reaches the
Eastern Aleutians, but scattered shower activity will likely
persist for portions of the southern Bering. New shortwave
activity along the front may reinvigorate winds and showers as the
front moves into Southwest Alaska Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7) Wednesday through Saturday...

Ridging over mainland Alaska on Wednesday will help clear skies up
over Southcentral during the day. The calmer weather will be short
lived however as energy from an upper-level trough in the eastern
Bering surges eastward and pushes the ridge to the north. This
pattern change will re-introduce widespread cloud cover and
chances for precipitation across the region as the system
progresses. The trough will dive further south and east into the
North Pacific by Thursday afternoon before the upper-low migrates
northward into the Gulf and towards Prince William Sound by
Saturday afternoon.

Another upper-low will start to form near the western Aleutians
late Thursday and move eastward through Saturday, providing a
chance for precipitation across the Aleutians and Bering. The
positioning of this low and the one in the central Gulf by
Saturday is still undetermined. Some model guidance is suggesting
that they will interact and even start to merge near the Alaska
Peninsula, while other models keep both systems separate from each
other. This would result in the Gulf low remaining closer to
Prince William Sound and the western low positioning itself near
the central Aleutians. In either scenario, broader troughing will
persist over most of the forecast area, producing cooler and
unsettled weather through at least the start of next weekend.

-BS

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Relatively higher pressure along the North Gulf coast
between a low in the Gulf and a weak thermal trough over interior
Southcentral will lead to development of a week Turnagain Arm jet
this evening. Exact timing is uncertain, but do expect a little
bit of south-southeasterly wind to bend into the terminal.
Earliest arrival would be around 02Z while latest arrival would
be around 06Z. This jet will die down with cooling overnight,
with a switch back to West-Northwest Sunday morning.

VFR conditions will prevail, with showers to the north dieing off
as they track southward into drier more stable air over Cook
Inlet. An upper level short-wave will approach from the east
Sunday afternoon, but will be in a weakening state. There is
potential for ceilings to lower to low end VFR during the day
Sunday, with some light rain or showers possible.

&&

$$


000
FXAK69 PAFG 260818
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1218 AM AKDT Sun May 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An arctic low over the N Slope and Arctic Coast is delaying the
onset of spring, with that feature rotating southwest to the
Chukchi coast, Norton Sound, and Seward Peninsula the next couple
days, with snow showers and cooler weather. Over the Interior,
easterly flow aloft will keep heavy shower chances over the SE
Interior and E Alaska Range to the Fortymile, with a more
significant low moving into that region Monday. Elsewhere,
slightly cooler and below seasonal temps slowly moderate, with
otherwise fairly benign weather. Break-up continues along the
Yukon Delta with snowmelt flooding being reported along and near
the Porcupine River around Fort Yukon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is an anomalous 529 dam arctic low over the Brooks Range and
N Slope, with the center around Umiat. Snow showers are occurring
over Brooks Range passes and onto the Arctic Coast with this
feature. There is a sprawling 531 dam upper low over the Gulf of
Alaska. There is a subtle easterly wave moving from the Yukon into
the SE Interior, supporting areas of rain showers. Rather strong
north winds gusting to gale force continue over the Bering Strait
to Chukchi coast and across the Seward Peninsula.

Model Discussion...
The models are in very good agreement with the pattern for the
next several days. There is some slight discrepancy with an
easterly wave moving into the E Interior Monday, with the NAM
model a notable outlier with strength and placement, thus we
tossed the NAM in favor of global models. Prior to that, the NAM
hi-res was favored for winds with a blend to all models for
precipitation, which will favor higher chances over the SE Interior
and E Alaska Range Monday and Monday night.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Rain showers continue this morning over the E Alaksa Range to the
SE Interior around Tok and Northway, then taper off. There will be
more afternoon showers and isolated thunder over the ALCAN border
mainly across the Fortymile Uplands, Upper Chena Basin, and
possibly into the E Alaska Range. Later tonight, another easterly
wave moves in with more heavy rain showers and that will continue
Monday and Monday night with another 0.50 to 1.25 inches of
rainfall, once again favoring the Upper Tanana Basin, Fortymile,
and E Alaska Range. Elsewhere, it will be rather quiet for the
Memorial Weekend and Memorial Day holiday with slightly cooler
than seasonal norm temps, moderating by Tuesday as south flow
aloft develops.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Temps fall the next couple days as a migratory arctic low moves
across the NW Arctic, bringing with it chances for snow showers
mainly over the Seward Peninsula, Bering Strait, and Chukchi
coast, where accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are possible Sunday
and Monday. Strong north winds over the West Coast wane Monday as
the arctic low departs. Temps gradually warm on Tue.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Snow showers continue over the N Slope and Arctic coast, and
across the Brooks Range, through tonight, tapering off from the E
Arctic to the W Arctic. NE winds taper off Monday with weak high
pressure thereafter, and quiet weather conditions.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Weak Interior ridging is in place Wednesday with an upper low in
Bristol Bay, which should mean slowly warming temps over the
Interior Mainland and showery conditions over SW AK and the West
as well as over the E Interior. Another low dives into the Gulf of
AK Thursday and looks to remain in place for several days, with a
continuation of shower chances over the Interior, and no
significant anomalies of note during this period. It looks
fairly...average.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Iso wet thunderstorms today are possible right along the ALCAN
mainly north of Northway and south of Chicken. Otherwise, wetting
rains will be focused over the SE Interior and E Alaska Range to
the Fortymile the next few days, with rainfall amounts ranging
from 0.5 to 1.5 inches. Elsewhere, it looks pretty dry and stable
for the next few days with no notable weather, and conditions
remaining cooler than seasonal norms for the Memorial Holiday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A flood warning remains in effect for Fort Yukon until next
Wednesday. Water has poured into low lying areas east of Fort
Yukon and was reported to be rising rapidly today with water 6
inches to 1 ft below impacting low areas of the runway. It is
expected that flooding will be similar to 2023, with water flowing
into low section of Fort Yukon today, cresting today or Monday,
and then falling very slowly next week.

A flood watch remains for the Yukon Delta near Nunam Iqua and
Kotlik. An ice jam remains in place with high water. Water is over
the bank on the far side and about a foot below bank on the
village side. No flooding has been reported but if the ice shifts
it could push water into town.

More rainfall for the SE Interior the next few days, with 0.5 to
1.5 inches of rainfall over the Upper Tanana Basin, E Alaska
Range, and Fortymile. There are no significant hydro concerns for
now as rivers will rise but remain fairly low.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ825.
Flood Warning for AKZ833.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-817-851.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
Gale Warning for PKZ806.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-856.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-812-858.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-850-853.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
Gale Warning for PKZ854.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
&&

$$

Ahsenmacher


000
FXAK67 PAJK 260002
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
402 PM AKDT Sat May 25 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday night/...Widespread periods of rain
that were observed today will continue through this short term
forecast period for much of Southeast Alaska. Still expecting the
far northern inner channels and northeast gulf coast to have the
best chance for at least a little dry weather this weekend.
Meanwhile, am also still expecting the southern inner channels to
receive the most rain with up to two inches by Monday morning.
With no meaningful breaks in the clouds, look for Sunday`s highs
to be once again in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...The active weather pattern continues through the
first half of the week, though a break may be possible Wednesday
and Thursday.

Aloft, an area low pressure over the Gulf will occlude and weaken
as it meanders slowly to the SE. Waves of precipitation rotating
around the decaying low will continue to move through the area
until a more offshore synoptic pattern is established as the low
moves S of the panhandle. A period of drier weather will
subsequently be possible Tuesday night through much of Thursday
though the cloud deck and a few showers will likely linger in
some locations. Beyond Thursday, operational guidance is
increasingly favoring the idea of a strong frontal band moving
into the panhandle on Friday, but confidence remains low on
timing and the location of the system`s parent low.

Main forecast changes were to refine the anticipated timing of the
potential drier weather for the middle of the week and add some
additional detail in the wind forecast prior to this point.


&&

.AVIATION...Marginal visual conditions with CIGs between 1000 and
5000 ft. Precipitation may reduce VSBY down to 3 sm at times. Low
level turbulence most likely over the southern half of the
panhandle.

&&

.MARINE...Small craft winds over the eastern gulf from Cape
Spencer north to Cape Suckling. Hot spots on the inside include
northern Lynn Canal (of course), Young Bay, and Clarence Strait
with localized winds 25 to 30 kts. Elsewhere, 10 to 20 kts at
times on the inside.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-662>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE...Fritsch
LONG TERM....GFS
AVIATION...Fritsch

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