Graphical Hydro Meteorological Discussion

693
FXAK68 PAFC 211350
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
450 AM AKST Fri Nov 21 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3 )...

A deep, but occluding 970 mb low currently 70 miles south of
Seward will lift north into the Sound today. Cold air aloft is
wrapping around the low through Kamishak Gap right now and will
soon switch precipitation type in the Kachemak Bay area over to
snow, at least above ~500 ft in elevation. A Winter Weather
Advisory is now in effect until 6pm tonight for the Southwest
Kenai Peninsula, particularly the higher elevations like Diamond
Ridge and Nikolaevsk where 4 to 8 inches of snow are expected.
Farther north up the Inlet some light radar returns are beginning
to show up near Kenai and Soldotna, along with farther north near
Anchorage and the southern Mat-Su. Precipitation type remains
tricky from Kenai north to Palmer, with the 12Z Anchorage sounding
still showing an above freezing wet-bulb temperature from 800ft
to 1800ft. The column will cool throughout the day as colder air
filters in from the west, but rain or freezing rain is the likely
precipitation type through early afternoon from Kenai north.

The overall model consensus for the storm track over the next 24
hours is for the low to move towards Hinchinbrook Island through
this afternoon before retrograding back to the west and near
Whittier. With this low track, the most likely time for
precipitation from the southern Mat-Su south through Anchorage
and the northwest Kenai would be late this afternoon to very early
Friday morning. Around a half an inch of snow is expected for
these areas, with up to 2.5 inches possible should the storm over
produce and precipitation starts earlier this afternoon. Farther
east, Valdez and Cordova will maintain persistent rain showers
through early Saturday morning. Snow will slowly mix in as
temperatures aloft cool somewhat quickly later tonight.

Looking ahead to the rest of the weekend, light snow will
gradually taper off as a low in the Gulf cuts off the moisture
feed, though some light snow showers may linger in the northern
and western Susitna Valley and along the Alaska Range near Paxson.
Despite the colder temperatures aloft, cloud cover will keep
things a little moderated until Sunday when things start to clear
out a bit.

-CJ

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 to 3: Today through Sunday night)...

A low in the Gulf of Alaska extends a front across Southwest
Alaska, which is producing a swath of light snow along a line
roughly from Iliamna to Kalskag this morning. Meanwhile, a broad,
upper-level trough envelops the entirety of mainland Alaska. A
few weaker features (lows, troughs) will rotate south across the
Bering Sea and Southwest Alaska through the broader trough through
the weekend. The front across Southwest Alaska pushes steadily
inland as it and its parent low lift north and east today, keeping
coastal portions of Bristol Bay and parts of the Kuskokwim Delta
dry. However, a low to mid-level trough over the Yukon Delta will
begin to dip south today and wrap snow back west. Light snow will
begin for the northwestern portions of the Kuskokwim Delta and
Nunivak Island later this morning, combined with increasing winds
as colder air pushes in aloft. Temperatures in the 20s combined
with winds increasing to 25 to 30 mph will lead to the potential
for reduced visibilities in blowing snow. Given the expected light
intensity of the snowfall, there is less potential for visibility
to drop to one half mile and remain sustained that low for a
prolonged period of time, but visibility below one mile should be
anticipated along the Kuskokwim Delta coast and for Nunivak Island
as snowfall spreads south along the coast and inland through the
day. By this afternoon, light snow will return to Bethel and other
communities along the Kuskokwim River. Snow accumulations of
around 1 to 2 inches are possible across the Kuskokwim Delta
through tonight. Snow tapers off tonight heading into Saturday as
the trough exits to the south.

Meanwhile, a separate surface low (or trough, given its quick
forward motion) drops south across the eastern Bering Sea and
crosses the Alaska Peninsula this afternoon. This feature will
enhance snow showers for the Pribilof Islands early this morning
and then the Alaska Peninsula and eastern Aleutians later today.
However, some low-level warm air associated with the low/trough
will bring temperatures above freezing and while snowfall may be
heavy at times in these showers, blowing snow is not expected to
significantly reduce visibility.

Cooler temperatures surge across the Bering Sea and Southwest
Alaska in the wake of this low, with lows dropping into the 20s
for the Alaska Peninsula Saturday and Sunday nights, with single
digit lows for the interior Kuskokwim Delta and Lower Kuskokwim
Valley. Out west, a North Pacific low lifts to near the Western
Aleutians by Saturday. Its front brings strong winds, up to
storm-force (50 kts) across the western and central Aleutians
along with moderate to heavy rain. The low remains south of the
Aleutians through the weekend, its front lifting slowly into the
eastern Aleutians through Sunday night. Southwest Alaska remains
dry and cold under offshore flow on Sunday.

Quesada

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

A high amplitude blocking pattern will be building during the
long term forecast period with a ridge of high pressure stretching
from the north slope of Alaska to the southeast Panhandle while
broad low pressure sits over the Aleutian Chain and Bering Sea. A
surface low spinning up under the upper level trough will most
likely have their storm track shunted north due to the blocking
ridge, bringing Kodiak Island and Southwest Alaska the majority of
weather impacts Tuesday and Wednesday. The eastern Kenai
Peninsula may receive modest precipitation as well, but the
majority of Southcentral see clearer skies with little to no
precipitation. A tight pressure gradient along the north Gulf
coast will more than likely result in gusty gap winds in the usual
spots, such as the Copper River Delta, Thompson Pass, and
Matanuska Valley. Expect colder than average temperatures for
interior locations and warmer than average temperatures for the
Alaska Peninsula and Lower Kuskokwim.


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected until late tonight when a
surface low enters the western Prince William Sound and snow moves
over the terminal. However, there is a slight chance of freezing
rain through the morning before the column can cool down enough to
support snow. While this is not expected, there are light radar
returns moving over the mountains, so very light freezing
sprinkles are possible with minimal accumulation. Snow
accumulation tonight is expected to be around a half inch.

&&


$$

794
FXAK69 PAFG 212243
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
143 PM AKST Fri Nov 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Snow has developed across the Central and Eastern
Interior and will persist through Saturday before tapering off
Sunday. Accumulations of 6+ inches are likely in the hills off
Chena Hot Springs Road and north and east of Eagle Summit.
Generally 3 to 6 inches from Fairbanks to Livengood and east to
Eagle Summit, though areas beneath convective snow bands may see
locally higher amounts. Light snow persists in the Brooks Range
and along the Arctic Coast east of Deadhorse through Sunday. Snow
showers and winds along western capes along the west coast
diminish Saturday. High pressure builds in Sunday, bringing drier
and colder conditions to Northern Alaska next week, as well as
increasing northeast winds and blowing snow with low visibility
north of Fairbanks.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Steadier snow arrives Friday afternoon/evening and continues
through Saturday night. Some showers remain early Sunday.
- 6 to 12 inches of heavy snow in the White Mountains and
elevated terrain south of the Yukon Flats. A Winter Storm
Warning has been issued for heavy snow. The heaviest snow will
be north and east of Eagle Summit, especially near Circle and
Chalkyitsik.
- 2 to 4 inches in Fairbanks area (including Eielson), though
areas beneath heavier bands of snow could see 6+" similar to
the White Mountains.
- 1 to 3 inches from Delta to Nenana north/west to Bettles.
- Little to no snow accumulations from Tok south/east.

- Colder and drier conditions return next week.

- Clouds clear late Sunday into Monday. Temperatures decrease in
valley locations under clear skies as stronger temperature
inversions develop.

- Increasing northeast winds Monday through next week. Areas of
blowing snow and low visibility with difficult travel conditions
over Dalton, Elliott, and Steese Highway Summits next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Showery snow and gusty northwesterly winds slowly diminish
Saturday.
- Light snow for the Western Interior Friday and Saturday around
1 to 2 inches.
- North-northwesterly winds along the coast with gusts of 30 to
40 mph through Friday. Western Interior gusts 15 to 25 mph
Saturday.

- Colder and drier conditions return next week.

- Increasing east and northeast winds Monday through next week.

- Temperatures in the 20s to near 30 along the coast, decreasing
through the weekend with highs in the single digits and teens,
and lows near or below 0 for much of next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Light snow continues on the Slope, Beaufort Sea Coast and in the
Brooks Range this weekend. Snow accumulations will be around 1
to 3 inches with a couple of spots near 4 inches in the Eastern
Brooks Range and near Kaktovik through Sunday.

- Colder and drier conditions return next week.

- Widespread temperatures in the single digits with lows near or
below 0 along the coast, and potentially in the teens to 20s
below zero in the Brooks Range next week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Broad troughing and low
pressure is present across the state with abundant moisture locked
into the area of low pressure over the Interior. Areas of snow
will continue to develop this afternoon as a vorticity maximum
drifts south over the area. This snow will continue through
Saturday before diminishing Sunday. Expect 2-4" in the Fairbanks
area and 6+ inches for the White Mountains. Due to the convective
nature of the snow event, areas beneath heavier bands may see 6+
inches of snow, even in the Fairbanks area. The official snow
forecast continues to be much higher than model guidance due to
the convective nature of the event, the fact that we are
anticipating snow to be low density and of the fluffy variety, and
the similarity of this setup to December 2024 when snowfall
overperformed model guidance over multiple days.

Across the west coast, northerly flow weakens Saturday as high
pressure shifts east to the Beaufort Sea. This will put an end to
the areas of blowing snow and snow showers through the Bering
Strait and across Western Capes. As high pressure builds over the
Beaufort Sea and continues to move east early next week, expect
skies to clear across the area and for the current warmer than
normal temperatures to become colder than normal. By Monday
afternoon, the entire forecast area looks dry and mostly clear.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...We are monitoring 2 significant
pattern changes in the extended period. The first is high
probability and is an increase in northeast winds across the whole
area Tuesday through the end of the week. This is as high pressure
drifts east over the Yukon Territory while low pressure moves over
the Aleutians. This increase in wind will likely cause snow that
falls this weekend to blow and for visibility to be reduced,
especially over Dalton Highway summits and north of Fairbanks. The
second pattern change we are monitoring is toward an amplified and
potentially impactful pattern in the next Friday-Monday time
period. Models show remarkable agreement for warm air and moisture
from as far south as 20 degrees north being advected toward
mainland Alaska to the east of the North Pacific ridge. It is too
early to pin down exactly where and when warm air and
precipitation will reach, however there is potential for a heavy
precipitation event, likely a mix of rain and snow, in Northern
Alaska next weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ833-834.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ838-842.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801-852-853.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-803.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-806-852>854.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-807-854-856>858.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808>810-855.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816-817-851.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
Gale Warning for PKZ856.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

$$

Chriest

574
FXAK67 PAJK 211745 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
845 AM AKST Fri Nov 21 2025

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation section for 18z taf issuance.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
Key Point:
- As of this morning, thunderstorms continue along the eastern
gulf coast. These storms are likely to continue into this
afternoon with lightning and winds gusts increasing to 30 to 40
kts.

- Winter Weather Advisory has been extended for the Klondike
Highway near White Pass until 9 PM Friday for long duration
snowfall, with an additional 4 to 5 inches expected through
Friday night.

SHORT TERM.../ Through Friday night / A weakening surface low
over the north central Gulf of Alaska is persisting as the remnants
of the stronger feature while a brisk west-southwest flow from the
gulf streams toward and throught the panhandle. The airmass that is
over the gulf has streamed out of the Bering Sea and into the gulf.
A few handful of open cells showers are evident in satellite
imagery, and it is unstable enough to develop showers and
thunderstorms along the Northeast Gulf coast, Chichagof, Baranof,
and Kuiu, and Prince of Wales Islands this morning. The shower will
persist through the day, but energy will be shifting southeast, so
by the latter part of Friday night, PoPs will be chance levels and
cooling begin to lower snow levels over the northern panhandle
overnight.

Also going on is strong gusty southerly flow in Lynn Canal to
Northwest Canada. Theses gusts will continue through the morning
and will be decreasing through the afternoon and overnight.

LONG TERM...For the start of the long term period, onshore flow
will continue to bring moisture onshore along with cold air aloft
which will allow for convective showers to continue Saturday into
Sunday. If some of the showers bring heavier periods of
precipitation, there is a chance that some areas for the central
panhandle could see minor snow accumulations. Headed into Sunday,
forecast guidance continues to show disagreements in the
ensembles. If high pressure takes more control of the Interior
down into the Yukon and British Columbia, there is a greater
chance for cold and dry conditions to become more widespread for
the panhandle. With that, outflow conditions would be more likely
and winds through the Inner Channels will be stronger than what is
currently forecasted. But if the high pressure is farther to the
east and weaker, onshore flow will likely continue to allow for
showers to move inland. While temperatures would likely be cool,
they would be warmer than the stronger high pressure solution.
Current thinking is that the high pressure will take control of
the weather for SE AK and we will start to see a cool down and
drying, at least through the weekend into the start of next week.
But this will need to be monitored for any potential changes.
Headed into the middle of next week, ensemble guidance shows a low
over the Aleutians along with a weakening front that could bring
our next impacts to the area. If the cold air is established
through the Inner Channels, this could potentially bring snow to
parts of the Panhandle outside of the Northern Inner Channels.

AVIATION...Widespread showers across the panhandle (especially in
the northern half) with embedded thunderstorms occurring along
the outer coast this morning. Some of those showers have been
heavy with occasional drops in visibility or ceilings to IFR.
Connectively unstable conditions are still dominant across the
gulf this morning and the overall SW flow pattern has all of those
showers that develop slamming into the outer coast. Lightning
detection has been lighting up all morning along the outer coast
as the showers receive additional lift from hitting the higher
terrain with Sitka actually reporting lightning and some small
hail at times. These conditions are expected to continue through
the day and may last through late tonight as unstable atmospheric
conditions and SW flow persist across the panhandle and gulf.
Expect occasional lightning to continue along the outer coast
especially from Cape Decision northwestward. The heavier showers
may also have some ice pellets or small hail and vis and ceilings
may drop as low as IFR at times. Saturday will feature less
frequent and weaker showers as the instability across the gulf
becomes more stable as the day goes on.

Gusty surface winds are being observed in the Lynn Canal, Haines,
and Skagway areas this morning and occasionally gusty winds are
also be observed near heavier showers. These wind conditions are
expected to continue and may be accompanied by some weak low level
speed shear (SE winds to 30 kt at 2000 ft agl) in the southern
panhandle this evening as a short wave moves into that area.
Expect wind to diminish into Saturday.

MARINE...

Outside Waters: Fairly persistent SW to WSW flow over the gulf with
speeds of 20 to 30 kt Friday morning diminishing by afternoon, and
then picking back up over the south central gulf By Friday night.
Swell and Wind wave have combined seas in the 15 to 22 ft range out
over the gulf this morning and expect to see those heights lowering
to 10 to 15 ft. Wind and seas will continue weaken Saturday into
Sunday as the gulf pattern weakens.

Inside Waters:
A few windier channels carrying small craft winds early today for
Lynn Canal and likely Cross Sound (due to seas into the region). The
southerly Lynn Canal gradient will weaken so the gusty winds around
Haines and Skagway should diminish through the day.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ318.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-022-031-036-053-641>644-651-
652-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...Bezenek

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