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Alaska Drought Monitor


000
FXAK68 PAFC 151237
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
437 AM AKDT Tue Oct 15 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A strong 958 mb low (remnant Hagibis) centered west of St.
Matthew Island continues to slowly move northward. This low has
brought hurricane force gusts and high seas to the Bering waters
overnight. A front associated with this low has stalled along the
Southwest coast, inhibited from moving inland by a persistent area
of high pressure in place over the Mainland. Behind the low, cold
air is streaming in from the northwest. Meanwhile over the Gulf,
a complex low has brought gusty easterly winds and rain to Kodiak
Island. An inverted trough associated with this low has begun to
lift northward and is approaching the northern Gulf coast this
morning.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Forecast models continue to be in good agreement regarding the
overall synoptic pattern. Disagreement arises by Wednesday when
model solutions differ on the location of several smaller
circulations over the Gulf of Alaska and their arrival into
Southcentral. Meanwhile over the Bering, a second strong low moves
in Tuesday night. Models struggle to agree on the strength and
track of this low, though current thinking is the low center will
traverse the Pribilof Islands late Tuesday into early Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Outflow and gap winds are expected to diminish across Southcentral
today as pressure gradients relax. Broad cyclonic upper level flow
over the NE Pacific/Gulf will continue a support a series of lows
which will generally drift across the Gulf. Positioning of
centers and intensity will be somewhat problematic. However, while
there are differences, common ground can be be found with NE to
NW gales over the western and northern Gulf today and weakening
tonight. Gales will redevelop across the southwestern Gulf
Wednesday afternoon/night as the next front moves in from the
west. Precipitation will spread west across the northern and
western Gulf today with rain at most sea level locations and mix
or snow at higher elevations over the mainland coastal mountains.
Overrunning snow potential across the Chugach into the Matanuska
Valley/Anchorage Bowl on Wednesday morning looks fairly weak.
However, could not rule out flurries or some very light snow
during the morning hours which would then mix with rain during
the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Precipitation from the frontal boundary has been detected on the
radars at Bethel (PABC) and King Salmon (PAKC) this morning. The
front spans from Hooper Bay to Pilot Point. The models bring the
boundary inland today with light rain making it to Bethel and
Levelock. However, the front loses momentum. A second frontal
boundary will move into the region early Wednesday. Widespread
rainfall is anticipated with coastal communities receiving the
lion`s share of the moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

This morning the surface low anchoring the remnants of Hagibis is
west of St. Matthew Island with an estimated pressure of 958mb.
The models show the surface low moving westward into NE Russia.
The surface low will weaken and the northern portion of the
frontal boundary will undergo the process of frontolysis. The
longwave trough over the Bering has several impulses of shortwave
energy embedded. A second surge of energy will create a new wave
along the baroclinic zone near the western Aleutians. This new low
will undergo a period of rapid intensification today. The new
surface low will track over the Pribilof Islands tonight bringing
another round of strong winds and rough seas. As the forecast
period unfolds, the low will push into western Alaska on Thursday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

Bering Sea/Aleutians: Models continue to show discrepancies for
the synoptic setup in the Bering in the Thursday timeframe. In any
case, there continues to be indication that a double barrel low
will set up in the Bering, with one center near Cape Newenham and
the other center in the northeast Bering. It`s tough to say which
will be stronger, but models have shown a slight trend deepening
the Bristol Bay/Cape Newenham low. This would likely result in
some gales in the southern Bering and eastern Aleutians Thursday.
Expect mixed seas with combined wave height in the 15 to 20 foot
range... subsiding Friday. A series of disturbances will likely
rotate around the northeast Bering low, thus areas of showers and
small craft advisory conditions are likely through the end of the
week.

Gulf of Alaska: An upper low will cross the AKPEN Thursday and a
surface low will develop near Kodiak Island. The range of
solutions is a bit broader than ideal... the main question is how
far north the low propagates. It`s possible that it will bring
gales to the southern outer waters Thursday. Or, it could track
far enough south that stronger winds will be concentrated in the
North Pacific. Either way, elevated winds are likely out of
Kamishak Bay as pressure drops in the Gulf. The pattern looks
generally benign in the Gulf by Saturday, but model discrepancies
compound so it will be important to monitor the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

Details in the long term remain murky, as models continue to
struggle with the preceding evolution of post-Typhoon Hagibis.
However, there are some general trends apparent. Low pressure is
likely to settle in the Bering Sea (or perhaps centered off the
west coast) through early next week, and cold air advection in
north flow around the west side of the low will continue showery
unstable conditions over the Bering/Aleutians. The location of the
low center is uncertain, but if it sets up near the west coast,
precipitation and increased southwest winds are likely in its
southern periphery. High pressure in the low levels will persist
over northeastern Alaska, leading to cold, generally dry
conditions inland. However, enhanced cyclogenesis is likely as
modified cold, dry air originating in eastern Siberia spills into
the North Pacific. Thus, expect a series of lows to approach the
Gulf from the west. This will likely bring precipitation and
increased cloud cover to the North Gulf Coast, possibly making it
inland.

&&


.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch: 195.
MARINE...Storm Warning: 177-179, 185, 412, 413, 414.
Gale Warning: 119, 120, 131, 132, 150, 155, 160, 165, 170-176,
180, 351, 352, 411.
. FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS
MARINE/LONG TERM...MM


000
FXAK69 PAFG 151301
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
501 AM AKDT Tue Oct 15 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Wind related issues will be our primary concern for today. The
remnants of former Typhoon Hagibis will bring strong winds to west
coast along with St. Lawrence Island today, especially in the
morning hours. The combination of the strong low over the Bering
Sea combined with high pressure over the Yukon Territory will
bring gusty easterly winds to the Interior at times today,
especially to the higher terrain north of Fairbanks as well as to
the Tanana Valley near Delta Junction. Easterly winds will
increase tonight along the Beaufort Sea Coast.

The models initialize well and are in generally good agreement out
through Wednesday. We will lean mostly on the NAM for our
forecast products today, especially for the winds.

Central and Eastern Interior: A ridge over the Interior will
allow for clear skies for much of the Interior for today. The main
exception to this will be southeast of Fairbanks, where a trough
moving to the north will start to bing increased cloud cover
during the day today. This system will bring chances for snow
today to areas southeast of Delta Junction, although any
accumulation of snow is expected to be light. Gusty Tanana Valley
Jet winds have been observed overnight in Delta Junction and
Nenana. The Tanana Valley Jet winds will decrease today as the
pressure gradient relaxes. Gusty east to northeasterly winds will
continue at times today in the higher terrain north of Fairbanks
Gusts up to 35 mph are possible in the Ray Mountains. These winds
will diminish tonight. As the trough continues to move to the
north tonight, we expect that cloud the cover over Fairbanks will
thicken up some. The increased cloud cover from Fairbanks east
will keep the low temperatures a warmer tonight than last night,
with the difference being larger the closer you get to the
Canadian Border. Cloud cover will continue to thicken up across
the rest of the Interior Wednesday and Wednesday night.

North Slope and Brooks Range: Winds will become more easterly
today across the North Slope. As the winds become more easterly we
expect to see clouds move back into coastal areas to the east of
Utqiagvik. Elsewhere, an upper level ridge will help to keep the
cloud cover to a minimum over the next few days. Precipitation is
not expected across the north slope and Brooks Range until at
least the weekend. As a leeside trough strengthens on the north
side of the Brooks Range tonight we expect the easterly winds to
increase on the Beaufort Sea Coast. Areas east of Deadhorse will
likely see gusts up to 40 mph on Wednesday. The strong winds
along the Beaufort Sea Coast will likely persist into the
weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior: The remnants of former Typhoon
Hagibis is currently bringing strong winds to the west coast as
well as St. Lawrence Island. A High Wind Warning remains out for
St. Lawrence Island through this afternoon. The low center is
is currently just to the west of St. Matthew Island and is
expected to track to the northwest today. As the low tracks to the
northwest, we expect the winds along the west coast to diminish.
The strongest winds for St. Lawerence Island are expected this
morning as the low center is closest to the Island. A front
associated with this low will bing scattered rain and snow showers
to coastal areas south of the Bering Strait as it moves north
today and tonight. A separate strong low will move to the east
along the north side of the Aleutian Island Chain tonight into
Wednesday before moving into Bristol Bay. This will cause easterly
winds to increase along the Yukon Delta on Wednesday along with a
few rain or snow showers, but elsewhere in our area we expect the
impacts to be limited. Wednesday night and Thursday we are not
expecting any precipitation along the coast. The western Interior
will see clear skies today, but we expect clouds to increase on
Wednesday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning for AKZ213.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

Gale Warning for PKZ210.
&&

$$

OCT 19


000
FXAK67 PAJK 151436
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
636 AM AKDT Tue Oct 15 2019

.SHORT TERM.../Through Wednesday night/...A potent, complex surface
low is located southwest of Haida Gwaii as of early this morning.
Numerous short waves embedded within the larger overall
circulation continue to rotate in a cyclonic fashion, each
associated with an area of gale force winds. Gales associated with
the main front have shifted to the northeast gulf and are
diminishing. Meanwhile, gales in Hecate Strait continue to blow
into Clarence Strait, remaining strong until late this evening.
Over land, strong wind gusts continue for zones 27 and 28. By this
afternoon, one of the aforementioned short waves will rotate
north into the southern outer coastal waters, producing more small
craft winds late this afternoon and overnight.

The front associated with the complex low in the gulf has produced
widespread heavy rain over the past 24 hours. In Ketchikan,
slightly less than 5 inches has fallen and nearly an inch as far
north as the Icy Strait corridor. As expected, smaller creeks and
streams are rising. As of this morning, all remain within their
banks and no flooding concerns currently exist. Rain will taper
off later today, but conditions will not dry out except possibly
for the area around Yakutat late tonight and tomorrow morning.
Perhaps the biggest news would be the accumulating snow that
occurred in Haines overnight. Even though this was well forecasted
by previous shifts, the first low elevation accumulating snowfall
is met with anticipation by some, dread by others, and nervous
anxiety by most meteorologists. While the late Autumn and Winter
seasonal forecast are still indicating a high probability of
warmer than normal temperatures across all of Southeast Alaska,
recent below normal temperatures and an early arrival of snowfall
(for Haines) does give one cause for hope of more normal Winter
conditions that we have seen in several years.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday as of 10 pm Monday/
Looks like a fairly flat pattern aloft with main upper level jet
moving along S of the gulf into southern BC through the weekend.
Next week, some hint that a more amplified flow will develop as a
trof tries to deepen over the eastern Bering/N-central PAC with
ridging building over SE AK and western Canada, but models do not
agree how strong these features will get due to complicated stream
interactions. At the sfc, looks like a series of smaller lows
will move E across the far southern gulf through the weekend, then
a stronger system may move more to the NE into the gulf toward
early next week. Again, model differences remain significant on
all these features however. Decided to go ahead and use the 18z
NAM to handle Thu into Thu night, then latest WPC from Fri onward.
These models seemed like a reasonable compromise given the
differences.

For Thu into Fri, we will still have some residual lows in the
eastern gulf left over from the complicated system in the short
term. Looks like these lows will tend to drift W over the northern
gulf as other systems go by them to the S. This would keep some
onshore flow going and precip threat should remain on the high
side during this period.

Over the weekend into early next week, the precip threat becomes
more questionable given important model differences with system
tracks. May see a period of drier weather, but how long will
depend on how far N systems will get. Temps during the period
should remain near normal with no significant warm or cold
airmasses expected to move in. Given all of this, overall
forecast confidence is no better than average.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 10 AM AKDT this morning for AKZ027-028.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-036-043-051.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-035-041-042-052-053.

&&

$$

Fritsch/RWT

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