Graphical Hydro Meteorological Discussion

394
FXAK68 PAFC 110109
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
409 PM AKST Tue Nov 10 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A few lingering showers remain across the coastal mountains, as
today`s low has substantially diminished in strength. A
southeasterly wind regime has lead to a few pockets of sunshine on
the lee side of the Chugach and Kenai Mountains and around Kodiak
Island - if these pockets remain overnight, temperatures could
drop lower than forecast, and fog may develop by morning -
something to watch out for in the forecast. Otherwise, quiet
conditions are forecast overnight before the next round of
precipitation moves in from the eastern Gulf early Wednesday
through Thursday, primarily effecting areas around the the Prince
William Sound and Kenai Peninsula, though light precipitation
could move further inland as far as Anchorage, the Mat-Su and the
Copper River Basin by late Wednesday/early Thursday morning. This
system will bring gusty mountain winds, but won`t be quite as
warm aloft, nor as dynamic; therefore, while there will be a rain-
snow mix below 1500 ft (snow above), amounts should be much
lighter.

Generally cooler and drier conditions are in store for the end of
the week. However, the active pattern continues with another
round of showers likely by Sunday.

-AB

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Currently, northwesterly winds with cold air advection across the
Bering to as far south as the Aleutians and North Pacific is
driving scattered ocean effect snow showers across the region.
With a low to the east in the Gulf and an emerging North Pacific
low from the subtropics, this interaction is tightening the
pressure gradient across these areas as well, which is elevating
gap winds across the eastern half of the Aleutian Chain and Alaska
Peninsula this afternoon.

Freezing fog is likely (60 to 70% chance) for the Kuskokwim Delta
for areas like Bethel Wednesday morning as light northwesterly
winds shift to southwesterly and an onshore component with
moisture advection off of the Bering works into the region.
Forecast model soundings do show a subtle low level inversion
setting up as well, but as surface temperatures slowly warm late
Thursday morning, the inversion will erode and fog will begin to
dissipate.

Also by Wednesday morning, a North Pacific low`s front sideswipes
the North Pacific side of the Central Aleutians with a round of
high end small crafts and gales, with the strongest core of these
winds staying well offshore. Warm air advection ahead of the front
and rising snow levels should allow for most of it associated
precipitation to fall as rain (30 to 40% chance of rain/snow mix
possible on the leading edge of precipitation). The GFS today has
become more in line with other guidance and the track of the low
has been shifted farther south with this afternoon forecast
package. This low pressure system moves eastward through Wednesday
afternoon and tracks south of the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula as it does so. Expect high end northerly to
northwesterly small craft winds in the wake of this system to be
enhanced through the gaps of the Central Aleutians Wednesday
night. Gap winds pick up again for the Alaska Peninsula by midday
Thursday in the wake of the exiting North Pacific low.

Another relatively deep North Pacific low is on track to move
south of the Aleutian Chain Friday morning as a weaker system
approaches the Western Aleutians.

-AM

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

Friday starts with less active weather across Southwest and
Southcentral Alaska as weak ridging builds over the Bering and weak
features move the Alaska mainland. Cold air advection drops into
Southwest Alaska, allowing for scattered snow showers. The
northerly flow will allow for small craft level gap winds in the
Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula areas and scattered showers
over much of the Bering. Also, another low moves into the Shemya
area from the west, bringing another round of gusty winds and
rainfall.

Saturday sees this low move further into the Bering, allowing for
the low`s front to progress and bring rain to much of the
Aleutians. Gusty winds also will impact the Aleutians with the
front. Meanwhile, Southcentral sees a low move south of the Gulf
of Alaska, turning winds more northwesterly along Kodiak Island
and allowing for gap winds in the waters around the island.
There is much uncertainty on Sunday in the Bering with regards to
the low track. It will progress eastward, but it is uncertain
where it will track to. However, whichever track it takes should
still bring rain and snow to the Southwest Mainland and gusty
winds along the Aleutians. Southcentral`s forecast is still
uncertain at this point with many low level features moving
through and bringing rain/snow and elevated winds wherever they
move. Monday is even more uncertain with a ridge building
somewhere in the Bering and a low moving into the Gulf of Alaska.
However, the exact track of these features and their impacts is
too uncertain to be clarified at this moment.

-JAR

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC....VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF
period. Light rain will continue into the afternoon, with
ceilings generally remaining above 4000 ft. Northerly winds will
gradually shift easterly through the afternoon, increasing to
around 10 kt with gusts up to 18 kt. Low-level wind shear will
remain possible as stronger easterly winds around 35 kt persist at
2000 ft AGL.

Rain showers will taper off later this afternoon, with vicinity
showers possible through the evening. Ceilings will gradually
lift overnight, with VFR conditions continuing through Wednesday
morning. Winds will shift back northerly and diminish overnight,
becoming light and variable by Wednesday morning. Low-level wind
shear is expected to diminish overnight as stronger winds aloft
weaken.

-LM

&&

$$

119
FXAK69 PAFG 102151
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1251 PM AKST Tue Nov 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Fairly quiet with flurries and snow showers linger around the
Interior this week with accumulations of 1 inch or less. The
only exception is the southern Brooks Range Wednesday night
through Friday midday with light snow bringing 1 to 3 inches.

- AK Range winds gust 40-50 mph today, but the wind will be
subsiding this evening. Similarly, wind in the Interior will
peak around 30 mph this afternoon, weakening tonight.

- Temperatures are warmest today but drop tomorrow and Thursday,
but remain near to above normal with highs in the upper teens
to low 20s and lows in the single digits above and below
zero. Coldest in the Upper Tanana Valley and Yukon Flats.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Other than some light snow around, the weather is pretty quiet
with light wind. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected this evening
through Wednesday in the Interior and Seward Peninsula. 1 inch
or less elsewhere across Western Alaska

- Temperatures will be gradually increasing after today with
near to slightly above normal temps returning by Thursday.

- No significant weather expected for the foreseeable future.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Blizzard conditions likely on the Beaufort Sea Coast into
tonight. Periods of blizzard conditions likely tonight into
tomorrow along the Chukchi Sea Coast.

- Wind gusts between 35 and 55 mph expected, strongest between
Deadhorse and Kaktovik through the week.

- With fresh snow on the ground and areas of light falling snow
expected this week, blowing snow likely continues through at
least Friday and perhaps into the weekend.

- Temperatures remain near to slightly above normal this week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Fairly quiet weather with areas of light snow and snow showers
in the Interior and along the West Coast through the week. A
couple of inches of snow are possible in the terrain of the
Western Interior and Seward Peninsula, otherwise most spots
receive less than an inch through Friday. The only real
impactful weather is on the Arctic Coast where blowing snow and
blizzard conditions likely persist through the week as winds
remain strong and light snow sticks around.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A weak upper low sits over the Eastern Bering at around 513
decameters while there is ridging well to the east over Canada
and the Western CONUS. This was just enough to give fairly weak
AK Range gap winds and chinook flow to the Interior keeping it
warm today. Down in the Gulf, we will continue to see troughing
with persistent lows moving through. Adversely, the Arctic will
keep a strong ridge for the foreseeable future, this is
prolonging strong wind on the Arctic Coast.

Overall, there isn`t too much in the way of impactful weather.
The highest impact is the blowing snow on the North Slope. It`s
the first official blizzard of the season for portions of the
coast. Today should be the worst conditions east of Utqiagvik as
the front providing light snow moves west. Tonight and tomorrow,
light snow and gusty wind on the Chukchi Sea Coast will bring
visibility down below 1 mile. Moving through the week, periods
of light snow and persistent gusty wind will likely keep
visibility down at times and this may continue into the weekend.

South of the Brooks Range, there will be areas of light snow
with light accumulations less than 1 inch in the Central and
Eastern Interior through Friday. A period of light snow is
expected in the Western Interior this evening through Wednesday
as a remnant low from the Gulf forces its energy northwest of
the AK Range. Expect 1 to 3 inches for most of the Interior and
Seward Peninsula. Most other locations see less than 1 inch.
Persistent south to southeast flow will promote weak AK Range
Gap winds at times, especially Wednesday into Thursday.
Otherwise, along with the southeast flow will be weak
shortwaves moving through from southeast to Northwest. This
promotes light snow and snow showers across the Central and
Eastern Interior. The highest chances for light snow begins
Wednesday afternoon and overnight in the Eastern Interior and
Brooks Range. Light snow then persists in the southern Brooks
Range (Coldfoot, Wiseman and Arctic Village) through midday
Friday. Accumulations will be around 1 inch or less in the
Eastern Interior and 1 to 3 in the Brooks Range.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The pattern doesn`t change much this weekend into next week.
Models were trying to decay the ridge in the Arctic next week but
that is unlikely given the strength of it and the ongoing
pattern. The storm track likely remains south of our area,
keeping our pattern very similar for at least the next week.
Expect periods of light snow, potentially more widespread in the
Interior next week depending on the exact orientation of the
southeasterly flow. Gusty winds persist on the Arctic Coast
thanks to the high in the Arctic. This results in blowing snow
continuing into next week, especially where there is falling
light snow. Temperatures across Northern Alaska remain near to
above normal for the foreseeable future.

Coastal Hazard Potential...
No concerns for the foreseeable future.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST Wednesday for
AKZ801>803.
Blizzard Warning until 6 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ804-805.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight AKST tonight for PKZ810-
856.
Gale Warning until 6 AM AKST Wednesday for PKZ811.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKST Wednesday for PKZ811-812-
814-815-857>860.
Brisk Wind Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for PKZ811.
Brisk Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM AKST
Wednesday for PKZ811.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 AM AKST Wednesday for
PKZ811.
Brisk Wind Advisory until 6 PM AKST Wednesday for PKZ812>815-
859>861.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 PM AKST Wednesday for
PKZ812-815.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for PKZ813.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM AKST
Wednesday for PKZ813.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 PM AKST Wednesday for
PKZ813-814-858>860.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for
PKZ813.
Gale Warning until 6 PM AKST Wednesday for PKZ814-860.
Gale Warning until 6 PM AKST this evening for PKZ815.
Gale Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for PKZ815.
Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Wednesday for
PKZ857.
Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM AKST Wednesday for
PKZ858.
Gale Warning from 3 PM to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for PKZ858.
Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM AKST Wednesday for
PKZ859.
&&

$$

Bianco

993
FXAK67 PAJK 110041
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
341 PM AKST Tue Nov 10 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- An active pattern continues as multiple lows and associated
fronts push into the panhandle through Wednesday, bringing
multiple rounds of strong winds and heavy rain across SE AK.

- Wind Advisories in effect for much of the outer coastal and
southern panhandle communities: Yakutat, Sitka, Prince of
Wales, Ketchikan, Annette Island with wind gusts of 40 to 55
mph.

- Gale Warnings remain in effect along the SE AK coast through
Wednesday with sustained winds 35 to 40 kts, with brief lulls
in between systems.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Into Thursday Morning/...
An active fall pattern continues as another low pushes into the
southeastern Gulf this morning, sending a front into the southern
panhandle through Tuesday night. The previous front has moved
through much of the panhandle already, currently draped over the
Icy Strait Corridor and bringing periods of light rainfall and
sustained southeasterly winds of 20 to 30 kts through the central
panhandle. Gusts of 35 to 40 kts will be possible through the
afternoon for some communities, steadily decreasing as the low
continues to pull away from the panhandle. As the low swiftly
pushes northwestward along the coastline through the evening, the
associated front will weakening and move into BC overnight. The
next low is following close behind, with the front already
beginning to push into the southern panhandle at the time of
writing. Light to moderate rain rates will spread north through
the panhandle overnight, bringing up to 1 inch of rainfall to most
communities in 24 hours.

The winds will be the main issue with this next system, though
they will not be as strong as the previous system. Expecting gale
force south to southeasterly winds in Clarence Strait and up the
Gulf coast of the panhandle starting tonight and continuing into
Wednesday. As the low moves north, the swath of stronger winds
will weaken to strong breezes to near-gale force and also shift
north through the inner channels through Wednesday. Uncertainty
still remains on the exact track of the low, but it currently
looks like it will stay closer to the coast and jump inland near
Cross Sound. This could bring localized strong winds as it shifts
inland, which if the winds are oriented in the correct direction,
could bring quickly increasing strong winds for a short period in
that location. Right now, the current track indicates potential
for Pelican and communities along Lisianski Strait, as well as
Elfin Cove to see these strong winds. See the marine section for
more details about the winds.

There still looks to be some convective potential behind this
low, with a chance for isolated thunderstorm development along the
outer coastline and for the southern panhandle going into
Wednesday night. Lingering onshore flow remains after the low
continues northward, which should continue shower potential
overnight. The instability may bring some heavier rain rates
alongside the low chance of thunderstorm potential. A shortwave
looks to jump into the southern panhandle again Thursday morning,
but there is still uncertainty on how strong this will be and the
exact position of the band. This should mostly be bringing rain to
the southern and outer coast of the panhandle, with the stronger
winds staying south of the panhandle.

.LONG TERM.../Starting Thursday/...The start of the long term
forecast has trended drier as models have begun to agree that a
low pressure system will move south of the panhandle on Friday.
There maybe a few lingering periods of rain on Friday, but this
will be a well break from rain due to the multiple systems this
current week. Wind will be a different story as this low to the
south will start to increase the pressure gradient between the
Canadian border and SE AK. This will increase northerly winds
across the area. This northerly flow will allow a few northern
areas to start to see temperatures fall below freezing. This
leaves a low chance of Skagway and Haines seeing its first snow
after these northerly winds. Although confidence remains on the
low side.

Otherwise active weather continues as deep low pressure systems
continue to move into the gulf, then either near/into SE AK, or
just south of SE AK. Whatever track these lows take will greatly
determine what weather we see here on the panhandle. If these lows
continue to move further south, we will continue to see more of a
northerly flow with the potential of colder air entering the
area. If these lows track further into the central or northern
gulf, it will bring more precipitation, while also continuing to
have periods of stronger winds.

&&

.AVIATION.../Through 00Z Thursday/... A gale force front is
pushing through the Gulf of Alaska, and has brought strong winds
across the Alaska Panhandle. The main impact with the system has
been LLWS, and that trend looks to continue this evening. As this
low pushes westward this evening,it is expected to increase winds
for Yakutat around 03Z. This front has brought occasional MVFR
visibilities to Sitka and Klawock. The main impact with this
system will be with the winds, so this should mean that ceilings
and visibilities stay VFR mostly. Some brief visibility reductions
are possible behind the front.

As this system moves west this evening, another system will be
right behind it after 05Z Wednesday. There may be some break in
the conditions between systems, but confidence in timing is low.
With the second front, expecting southeasterly winds over 40 kts
2000 feet AGL, and gusts up to 35 kts for Ketchikan and Sitka.
There is some potential for thunderstorms across the Southern
Panhandle and Gulf Coast with the second front. However,
confidence was not high enough to include in the 00Z TAFs. After
13Z Wednesday, expect the second front to push northwestward,
weaken, and impact the Alaska Panhandle with southerly winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside:
An impressive fall storm cycle continues to impact the Gulf, with
buoy 46082 reporting 42 ft significant wave heights early Tuesday
morning before being ripped from its mooring and set adrift. One
certainly wonders what the breaking waves looked like along Cape
St. Elias. For the remainder of Tuesday into Wednesday multiple
fronts will impact the eastern Gulf, freshening east to southeast
winds up to gales at times and southerly fresh seas maintaining
near 15 to 20 ft. Wednesdays system is trending stronger, with a
gale force front in the early morning and a secondary gale force
front, almost sting-jet like feature, moving through into the
eastern Gulf coast through the remainder of Wednesday. By Thursday
morning significant wave heights along the northern coast should
be diminishing below 15 ft as winds drop below 25 knots. Expect a
short break through Friday morning before east to southeasterly
winds increase as a storm force low undercuts the Gulf. By and
large easterly winds near Cross Sound should remain at strong
breezes becoming easterly gales as you move south toward the west
coast of Prince of Wales. Significant wave heights near the
Fairweather Grounds should increase back to near 15 ft, with 15 to
20 ft near Dixon. A note on this.

For folks looking to operate along the Chichagof, Baranof, and
PoW coast near the weekend, impressive westerly swell forming from
a strong gale force fetch in the north-central pacific will move
into the coast near Friday into Saturday, with deep water waves
likely focused near 13 to 16 ft at 17 to 19 seconds. This
combination of westerly swell and southeasterly wind waves could
bring some confused seas to the Fairweather Grounds and in coastal
zones in the eastern Gulf. Models might be a bit bullish on the
magnitude of winds and final vector of the fetch from this storm
in the north-central pacific, resulting in less impressive
westerly swell for the weekend. Stay tuned.

Inside:
The primary threat remains this: multiple gale to strong-gale
force fronts will move across the inside through the next 36
hours, with Wednesdays multitude of fronts looking stronger. For
mariners planning on moving around the inner channels, dont let
any lull in wind lure you into a false sense of security; a front
is likely close to follow bringing a sudden wind shift and 30 to
40 knots. For Wednesday, Stephens Passage into Clarence Strait
looks particularly strong as an almost sting-jet like front moves
from south to north during the late morning into the afternoon,
with Lynn Canal likely seeing stronger winds than previously
forecasted. For now, the message remains at a minimum, strong
breezes to near-gale force winds, with a few hours of gale to
strong-gale force conditions associated with frontal passages.
Thursday winds begin to diminish to more reasonable levels, with
many areas seeing moderate breezes. Friday a northerly outflow
pattern begins to impact the inside, with fresh to strong breezes
the primary feel and Lynn Canal and Taku Inlet likely seeing
several hours of near-gale force winds.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight AKST tonight
for AKZ317.
Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 8 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ322.
Wind Advisory until noon AKST Wednesday for AKZ323-327-328-330-
332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-033-036-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-031-032-034-035-053.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...BM
MARINE...AP

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