Graphical Hydro Meteorological Discussion

698
FXAK68 PAFC 180119
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
419 PM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Minimal changes to the going forecast this afternoon as the first
round of snow continues to move through the region. Anywhere from
just under an inch to a little more have been noted across south
central. As of the early afternoon, snow has ended in Homer.
Kenai, and then Anchorage and the Mat Valley through early this
evening. Following the end of the first round of snow will be a
break until about 9p to 10p for the southern Kenai Peninsula. As
warm air re-enters the area, Homer will see a mix turning to
freezing rain starting around 9p tonight. Kenai 10p, Anchorage
1030p to 11p and the Valley, an hour or so after that. At the time
of the expected rain, freezing/snow levels will be at or above
2000 ft and will not be fighting against any dry air to slow the
progress of precipitation making it to the surface. Indications
for the usual downslope areas are that the rain should be
relatively short lived, with Anchorage and Palmer seeing a 3-4
hour window of light rain, but locations right along Cook Inlet
(Homer, Ninilchik, Kenai) and from Big Lake north will see the
light rain continue into the late morning and early afternoon
hours.

--- Previous Discussion ---

Snowfall today will generally be light, on the order of up to 2
inches of snow, with most locations seeing closer to an inch.
Along the immediate coast of the eastern Kenai Peninsula, snow is
expected to mix with rain into Saturday evening as an easterly
wind advects warmer air into locations such as Whittier and
Portage.

There will be a break in the precipitation by late Saturday
afternoon before the aforementioned low drives north, bringing
with it another round of precipitation. Temperatures aloft will
warm through the evening and overnight hours, especially across
the Kenai Peninsula and locations in the lee of the Kenai and
Chugach Mountains, resulting in the wintry mix of precipitation
once again. Freezing rain and snow is likely for a period of time
from Anchor Point north to Wasilla Saturday night through early
Sunday morning. Right now, it looks like areas along the Sterling
Highway from Anchor Point to Kenai may have the best chance for
prolonged freezing rain, with up to a tenth of an inch of ice
accumulation. A strengthening southeasterly flow aloft should push
the bulk of this wintry mix to the far western Susitna Valley by
Sunday morning, then lifting north along the Alaska Range by
Sunday afternoon as the low moves inland and weakens.

By Monday, a warm ridge will begin to set up over the state,
leading to a return of a much quieter weather pattern.

-TM/SS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) A Special Weather Statement is in effect for pockets of
freezing drizzle overnight.

2) Southerly flow continues through Monday in most of Aleutians.

3) A North Pacific low brings precipitation and gale force winds
to the Western Aleutians early next week.

A fast-moving low through Bristol Bay brought mixed precipitation
to the area today. Rain, snow and a rain/snow mix was observed in
the AK Pen, Bristol Bay coastline and interior locations of the
southern Kuskokwim Delta Region with amounts ranging from a trace
to a few hundredths of an inch; highest in the upslope areas.
This light precipitation continues overnight with mostly rain
showers. Temperatures over the surface remain cool enough to
allow for isolated pockets of freezing drizzle this evening
through dawn tomorrow in the upslope areas north of Dillingham.
Light snow and fog is expected in the Y-K Delta this evening and
overnight.

Southerly flow persist in tomorrow in the Central and Eastern
Aleutians bringing continued warmer air and rain to the area. Wind
gusts through the bays and passes remain between 20 and 35 knots.
Light snow will fall in the Y-K Delta through the bigger story is
widespread fog across most of the Southwest from onshore flow.
Visibilities drop to between 1/2 and 1 mile overnight with slowly
improving conditions tomorrow afternoon.

Two upper level lows in the Western Aleutians brings rain and
gale force winds to the Western Aleutians as early as late Sunday
night and continuing through the beginning of next week. As these
move north and east across the Aleutians, cooler air filters in
behind it bringing a switch from rain to snow across the Western
and portions of the Central Aleutians.


&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

Confidence is higher than usual for high pressure to build across
the state for the majority of the long range. The resulting omega
block pattern is expected to bring seasonable and relatively
quieter weather to much of the Mainland. There remains fairly good
model agreement on persistent upper level troughing over
Kamchatka and the far Western Bering Sea. Several shortwaves and
accompanying surface lows will lift from the North Pacific and
into the western Bering through mid to late next week, keeping
unsettled and active weather mainly confined to the Western and
Central Aleutians. Each wave will move in succession through the
Aleutians and Bering Sea, bringing multiple rounds of potentially
gale to storm force winds and precipitation for most of next week.
However, the main foreseeable challenge would be with the timing
of each low that lifts north across the area.

JH/Rux

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Light northerly winds around 10 kts or less will persist.
Conditions will likely remain VFR as light snowfall pushes
northwards away from the terminal. A chance of mixed
precipitation type, including freezing rain or drizzle, will be
possible starting around 09Z through early Sunday morning.

&&

$$

021
FXAK69 PAFG 172322
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
222 PM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Generally fair conditions prevail this afternoon. However, gusty
winds continue in the West Coast and St. Lawrence Island, and
portions of the Alaska and Brooks Ranges. These may cause some
visibility impacts this afternoon, leading to blizzard conditions
persisting in St Lawrence Island and Wales. Periods of snow return
this evening to the YK Delta and expanding through the rest of the
West Coast and the North Slope overnight, and into the Interior by
early tomorrow morning. Some freezing rain is likely in the southern
western interior and West Coast with the initial push. Conditions
improve areawide on Sunday night as an area of high pressure takes
over for most of next week. Although a few weak disturbances may
cause some hiccups by mid-week and beyond.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Dry conditions prevail this evening and overnight in the Interior
with lows in the teens and single digits.

- Southerly gap winds across the Alaska Range and passes return late
this afternoon into Sunday.

- Periods of light snow return from the west on Sunday with only
minor accumulations possible, and a very low chance for freezing
drizzle north of the Alaska Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Blizzard conditions continue this evening for the far western
Seward Peninsula and St. Lawrence Island. Conditions slowly improve
this evening.

- Breezy conditions along the West Coast this morning diminish
through the day.

- Another round of light rain and snow pushes in from the southwest
tonight before shifting into the interior early on Sunday morning.

- High temperatures near or above freezing into mid next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Generally dry conditions prevail this evening. However, snow
chances return late this evening for areas west of Utqiagvik.

- Light snow chances persist through much of Sunday.
- Expect much warmer temperatures with highs in the 20s and 30s
above Sunday and Monday, but with increasing westerly winds.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...

The main feature observed this afternoon in satellite imagery is a
low pressure system over the Bering Sea. This low is expected to
continue on a northerly track towards Siberia. Meanwhile, over the
West Coast including, the Seward Peninsula, St. Lawrence Island and
into Point Hope we continue to observe periods of snow and heavy
snow as well as gusty winds, which keep blizzard to near blizzard
conditions in the region. These conditions should end this evening
as the pressure gradient loosens while the upper low moves into
inland Siberia. A shortwave trough ejected from the aforementioned
trough will move into the West Coast this evening and overnight.
This wave brings back periods of snow from the YK Delta, and
subsequently into the rest of the West Coast, the Western/Central
Interior and the western portions of the Brooks Range and the North
Slope. Furthermore, the HREF indicates that the initial push may
bring a short period of rain/wintry mix as the wave moves inland
with warm moisture from the Pacific, mainly from the Yukon Delta
towards the McGrath area. Although the chances remain generally
below 20% for the mixed precip out west.
However, the chances are better around McGrath with a 30-50% chance
of seeing freezing drizzle/rain. At least, any accumulations are
expected to be very light, less than 0.05".

By tomorrow morning, the shortwave reaches the Central and Eastern
Interior increasing our chances for light snow in the late morning
and afternoon with up to another 0.50 inches or so of snow possible
between Fairbanks and Delta Junction. The Brooks Range may have the
heaviest snow with this system as orographic lifting enhances snow
development in the area. Another 1 to 2 inches are possible and a 10-
30% chance of 1 inch of snow near Atigun Pass. Winds also increase
over the AK Range as the gradient becomes tighter tonight. The
better mixing due to the winds and the push of warmer air in the
area will lead to temperatures near freezing, and potentially up to
40F in the northern slopes/passes of the AK Range, where the
strongest winds are expected.

As we moves towards Monday, an upper level ridge starts to expand
towards SE Alaska and eventually towards the Interior. The warmest
temperatures of the week are expected on Monday as the ridge axis
moves through the state. Max temperatures across the state will be
ranging between 15 to 30F. Afterwards, a slow cooling trend begins
as a weak disturbance appears to bring cooler air due to northerly
winds. However, the ridge is expected to return by Wednesday over
the Western Interior, which would still keep cooler temps in the
Eastern/Central Interior due to a prevailing northerly flow, but
temps would still be above zero.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...

A 560-570 dam upper level ridge settles over AK in the long term
portion of the forecast. This is a very high amplitude an anomalous
ridge for this time of the year extending from the US West Coast
into AK that will be keep warmer conditions areawide for the middle
portion of next week, especially for the Western Interior and the
West Coast. However, a series of weak lows/disturbances will move
around the periphery of the main high pressure. The first
disturbance again has a low probability of causing a wintry mix in
the West Coast until the system pushes colder air making the
transition to snow. The North Slope also has a low chance for snow
with a 10-30% probability of occurring. Any amounts appear to be
light but may need to wait until we get closer to have better
agreement with amounts and timing of the system as models are having
a hard time with those weak disturbances.

Next weekend temperatures appear to come down for the Eastern and
Central Interior as there is good agreement for an upper trough to
descend from the Arctic into the Yukon and Northwest Territories.
which would be pushing cold air resulting in temperatures cooling
back down to around zero to -20F or in the worst case down to
-30F in areas near the Alaska/Canada border.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ820-821-827.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-851.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-807-850-856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-852.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805-817.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-816-854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855.
&&

$$

234
FXAK67 PAJK 172342
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
242 PM AKST Sat Jan 17 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Decent break in weather for much of the region through the
weekend and into the start of next week.

- Main threat to mariners and aviators is periods of dense fog,
most likely in the morning and evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Some lower clouds continue across the far northern
panhandle near Yakutat due to a continued front pushing inland over
the northern gulf. Conditions are going to continue to improve
through tonight, into Sunday, as that system weakens. Otherwise, the
rest of the panhandle continues to see drier weather with an upper
level ridge and higher pressure over the surface. This quiet weather
will remain over the panhandle for quite a while. The main impact
will continue to be areas of fog, dense at times with visibilities
as low as 1/4 SM, developing across various areas of SE AK. We are
seeing areas of fog as of this afternoon. This is due to the
observed breaks in the clouds with continued light winds across the
area. Expect this fog to continue with more developing tonight into
Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...Continued little change for the long term, with quiet
weather and above normal temperatures dropping to below normal
temperatures by the end of the week. A strengthening mid/upper
level ridge stretching from the Interior of the state down through
SE AK will divert would-be weather makers well away from the
panhandle. As the ridge retrogrades into an omega block like
feature to the west, building high pressure in the Yukon will
increase northerly winds. Warm 850 mb temperatures, which is
helping hold this ridge in place, look to be slowly eroded away by
the cooling temperatures in the Yukon area pushing southward.
Currently expecting to see by the end of this upcoming week a
return to highs in the mid 20s to low 30s for most areas.

&&

.AVIATION.../Through 00z Monday/...The panhandle will generally
continue to remain in VFR conditions through the remainder of the
week, and into next week. The one big exception will be fog.
Patchy fog has developed across some locations and parts of the
inner channels, and could linger through Saturday night and into
Sunday. Areas with fog will see CIGS and VIS drop to IFR and
potentially LIFR at time. Sites across the central and northern
panhandle will have better chances of fog than areas further
south.

&&

.MARINE...
Inside (Inner Channels): Lighter winds with low seas continue
across most areas of the inner channels as of this afternoon. A
few areas are seeing east and northerly winds around 15 kts, but
the main story is winds below 10 kts. Areas with stronger winds
are expected to diminish to join the rest of the area with winds
less than 10 kts. Otherwise, areas of fog will continue through
various areas of the inner channels with these weaker winds and
breaks in the clouds. Currently this fog is mainly over the
central to southern channels, but is likely to spread to more
areas overnight tonight.

Later, around mid week, weak outflow will begin. This will mainly
affect the northern inner channels with Lynn Canal likely
experiencing northerly winds increasing to fresh to strong breezes
(17 to 27 kts) due to a strengthening pressure gradient. We will
continue to monitor and update the forecast as these slightly
stronger winds get closer.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Relatively quiet marine
conditions in the gulf with mainly southeast to easterly winds
around 10 to 15 kts. Significant sea heights are currently around 8
to 10 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas remain around the
northern gulf. Both winds and seas will decrease tonight through
Sunday. After diminishing, winds become light and variable below 10
kts with seas subsiding to around 5 ft. These more benign conditions
last well into next week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ320.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...GFS
MARINE...EAB

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