Graphical Hydro Meteorological Discussion

926
FXAK68 PAFC 100124
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
424 PM AKST Sun Nov 9 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A ridge of high pressure continues to build across Southcentral
for the rest of today into tonight. Although fog has lifted for
most locations across Anchorage, Kenai Peninsula, and the MatSu,
the fog is likely to settle back in this evening and linger into
tomorrow morning. Gap winds were strong through Whittier/Passage
Canal, Seward/Resurrection Bay, and Valdez. These gap winds may
back off some for Monday, but another chances for gusty winds may
return Tuesday. With clear skies, temperatures overnight cooled
quickly and daytime highs have been colder than originally
forecasted. Temperatures may plummet again tonight and for Tuesday
morning, especially in lower elevations and valleys. Cloud cover
and any/absence of mixing will be key factors in temperatures
outcome.

The next low is quickly moving into the western Gulf of Alaska
this afternoon. The forecast track is trending the low and its
front south enough through the central Gulf that the main focus
for precipitation will be for Kodiak Island and the immediate
coast of the Northern Gulf and Prince William Sound. Precipitation
type for Kodiak has started off as snow but could transition
towards rain by early tomorrow morning. If enough cold air holds
on along the coast, Kodiak City could see about an inch or two of
snow with slightly higher amounts west of the city. Gale force
winds with some embedded storm-force gusts appear likely near the
low and along the front but should stay offshore.

The surface low weakens and begins to track slightly westward
along the northern Gulf for Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Gap
winds early in the morning will tend to weaken later in the day
and the probability of showers increases throughout the day for
Prince William Sound. Overall flow becomes west to northwesterly
Tuesday as the low weakens and a flattening ridge with embedded
trough from the west starts to move into the western Gulf late
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A front from a low is passing through the Southwest mainland,
which is bringing gusty winds and snowfall to particularly the
Kuskokwim Delta. Winds are slowly dropping off as the front passes
through with lingering snowfall. A warmer air mass is behind the
front, so temperatures will rise and may warm above freezing in
Bristol Bay, so precipitation there may become a rain/snow mix.
However, the Kuskokwim Delta is expected to stay below freezing,
so any lingering precipitation will be in the form of snowfall.
Meanwhile, a low in the Bering north of Shemya is bringing a large
swath of gusty winds to the Aleutian Islands. Winds are up to
gale force in strength. Monday has winds become light in the
mainland. There may be some lingering light snow showers in the
Kuskokwim Delta and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley from the same low
that brought the front. The Bering also has conditions improving
as the low moves southeast and weakens. A ridge builds behind into
the Western Aleutians, so lower chances for precipitation and
lower wind speeds are expected.

Tuesday has the same low still hanging around off the Kuskokwim
Delta coast finally drop south. Some small craft winds off the
coast and breezy winds inland are expected in the Kuskokwim Delta.
Small craft winds will also move into the Alaska Peninsula region
with some precipitation as well. Another frontal system moves
into the Bering from the west. A line of precipitation with gale
force winds will move into the Western Aleutians Tuesday morning,
reaching the Pribilof Islands and the Eastern Aleutians by
Wednesday morning. The frontal system will reach the mainland by
Wednesday afternoon, allowing for some snowfall. Behind the front
is warm air advection and weak flow, which means light winds and
showery precipitation in the Bering.

-JAR

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

Over the second half of next week a western Bering trough will
slide across the Aleutians Thursday into Friday, eventually
crossing over into the Gulf of Alaska by Saturday. Gusty westerly
winds from small craft to gales are anticipated from Adak to
Unalaska with what looks to be minimal impacts at this time. The
bigger story will entail a North Pacific low lifting into the
Western and Central Aleutians over the weekend. Deterministic
models and ensemble guidance are loosely in agreement with
bringing a ~940 to sub 940 mb low across the Aleutians into the
Bering Saturday into Sunday. While confidence in the track and
intensity are extremely low, impacts from the forecast low`s track
would include strong winds, potentially high winds, Saturday and
Sunday over the Western and Central Aleutians.

For Southwest and Southcentral Alaska seasonably cool
temperatures are forecast. The passage of one or two weaker
troughs through interior Alaska will support above normal chances
for precipitation.

BL


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Low stratus and fog are expected to be in and out of the
terminal through Monday morning, likely changing over from VFR to
LIFR as the fog/stratus moves in and out of the airport. Upper
level clouds moving overhead should begin to mitigate fog and
stratus development tomorrow after sunrise. Winds will remain
light and variable, predominately out of the north.

&&


$$

929
FXAK69 PAFG 092320
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
220 PM AKST Sun Nov 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong offshore and gusty winds along the coastal areas of the YD
Delta, Norton Sound, and St. Lawrence Island will continue to weaken
overnight and into tomorrow. Snow showers will also be possible for
some of these locations, and extending up over the Seward Peninsula.
There have also been some showers occurring over the eastern
portions of the Arctic Coast, as well as within the eastern portions
of the mainland, along the Alcan Border, especially from Northway to
Eagle. An overall colder and drier pattern is going to establish
itself over the Mainland, with temperatures dropping into into the
sub-zeros for a lot of the Interior, North Slope/Arctic Plains, and
within the Brooks Range beginning tomorrow. Temperatures will
continue to drop off throughout the week for most locations, with an
overall continued drying pattern as well. There could be an increase
in the probability of snow by later in the week and going into the
following weekend, especially for portions of the YK Delta, West
Coast, and Western Interior.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Occasional light snow will continue across the Eastern Interior
through this evening, mainly over the eastern portion of the
mainland, along the Alcan Border. Light additional accumulations
expected through tonight, with possibly an additional around
1-3" from Northway to Eagle.

- Clearing skies will support colder temperatures and areas of
dense fog for tonight as conditions turn predominantly dry for
the week ahead.

- Highs Monday are expected to be in the single digits and teens,
with lows in single digits above and below zero and teens.

- Colder temperatures continue to build in mid to late week as
highs drop to the single digits above and below zero with
widespread lows below zero. Coldest spots could see double digit
below zero lows.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Elevated water levels above the normal high tide line possible
across the West Coast, highest around the YK Delta.

- Snow chances will reach as far north as the Seward Peninsula
later this evening as the Northwest Coast remains predominantly
dry. Snow accumulations further south up to around 1-3" through
Monday night.

- Conditions remain dry across the Western Interior with clearer
skies supporting areas of dense fog/low stratus and cold
temperatures.

- Dry conditions return Tuesday along the West Coast outside of
isolated snow showers further south, ahead of another front
building into Southwest Alaska Wednesday into Thursday with
another round of snow and breezy winds.

- Highs in the teens and 20s with lows in the single digits above
and below zero and teens. Warmer conditions on St. Lawrence
Island with highs in the 20s and 30s with lows in the 20s.
Temperatures trend colder overall midweek.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Light snow continues across the North Slope and Eastern Brooks
Range tonight through Tuesday. Additional accumulations through
up to around 1-3", locally higher across the Eastern Arctic
Coast around 3- 5".

- Northeast winds prevail along the Arctic Coast through midweek,
strongest further west from Utqiagvik to Point Hope.

- Dry conditions return region wide Tuesday night into Wednesday
as a colder and drier airmass settles in overhead.

- Highs early this week in the teens and 20s across the Arctic
Coast and single digits and teens for the Arctic Plains and
Brooks Range, with lows in the single digits and teens to below
zero zero further inland.

- Colder temperatures continue to build in mid to late week as
highs drop mostly to the single digits above and below zero with
widespread lows below zero. Coldest spots could see double
digit below zero lows.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Tonight through Wednesday.
A decaying wave, with an associated occluded low located over the
Bering Sea, is continue to fill and move towards the southeast into
the Gulf of Alaska by later this evening. This will continue to
weaken, while another area of low pressure ejects up into the north
of the Chukchi Sea. Additionally, there are still some of the
displaced energy within the deformation zone of the low well off to
the southeast over Juneau`s area, which has provided some on and off
snow for portions of the eastern mainland, mainly along the Alcan
border, from Northway to Eagle. This snow will continue to taper off
going into tomorrow as the major shortwave progresses further
eastward and away from the region. An area of high pressure building
over the Beaufort Sea is going to allow for much colder air
advection from the north and establish across the region. This will
allow for much of the Interior, Brooks Range, and Arctic Plains, to
experience sub-zero temperatures beginning tomorrow, and then
further dropping off throughout the week. An overall drier pattern
will occur as this also allows for further clearing of skies to aid
in temperatures dropping even further.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 1 and 2...Elevated water levels above
the normal high tide line possible across the West Coast, highest
around the YK Delta around 1-3 feet, are expected through tomorrow.
A Special Weather Statement has been issued for the YK Delta to
highlight this.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Wednesday through next Saturday night.
By Wednesday, most of the region will be dominated by high pressure
conditions, with mostly clear skies and much colder temperatures.
Ensembles have continued to reveal increasing PWAT values going into
the latter part of the week and through the weekend as the region
may be influenced more by a stronger area of low pressure moving
into the Bering Sea, which may help to draw up more moisture ahead
of it over the YK Delta and allow for a better chance of snow for
some portions of the West Coast and western Interior, while most of
the remaining CWA remains colder and drier.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801>803.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801-850-853.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ802-803.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-807-812.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804-810-813.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-816-852-856-858.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805-807.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-856.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ808-809-811-812-855-857>860.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-854-857.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ814.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850-853.
Gale Warning for PKZ851.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ852.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854.
&&

$$

Stewey

568
FXAK67 PAJK 100136
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
436 PM AKST Sun Nov 9 2025

.SHORT TERM...The first major winter storm of the season is
largely behind us this Sunday afternoon, with many areas at or
near sea level reporting snow, even if only briefly. Along the Icy
Strait corridor, both Hoonah and Gustavus saw some minor snow
accumulations early Sunday morning, primarily driven by dynamic
cooling with the heavier precipitation rates. Some areas of Juneau
also had a wet and slushy start to the day, primarily seen on
elevated surfaces or vehicles in the Mendenhall Valley. Further
north along Lynn Canal, both Haines and Skagway have yet to see a
warm southerly push at the surface, therefore wet snow continues
to fall. For Haines, drainage flow down the Chilkat Valley
continues to keep the surface cold enough for wet snow to
accumulate, with a transition to more rain then snow, or straight
rain expected by this evening. A similar trend is expected for
Skagway, though northerly winds there are not as strong, and
therefore lower surface accumulations are expected at sea level.

Overall across the panhandle both surface winds and precipitation
will be on a downward trend overnight Sunday into Monday as a
quick moving ridge, serving as a buffer between systems, moves
over the panhandle. This is also expected to limit northerly
return flow in the inner channels ahead of the next gale force
front approaching Monday afternoon into Monday night.

This next system is largely lacking in upper level support, with
a deep upper level trough moving over the gulf, as well as mid
level steering flow being fairly stagnant. As a result, this low
is primarily expected to be on a downward trend in terms of
intensity and be fairly occluded by the time it meanders into the
northern gulf. However, as with this weekend storm, heavier
precipitation rates may once again lead to minor snow
accumulations at the surface for both Skagway and Haines Monday,
while being less likely for the Icy Strait corridor this time
around. Overall this storm is also expected to have much lower
storm totals since it will not have as much moisture to tap into
and will be weakening as it approaches. For more on what to
expect through the week, see the long term discussion.

.LONG TERM...
As the low pressure system moves north and diminishes
through Tuesday, lingering showers will bring times of light
precipitation to the panhandle. Cooler temperatures and drier
conditions quickly develop after Tuesday as a low pressure system
moves to the south of the panhandle. This will bring weak outflow
and northerly winds across the inner channels as a high develops
over the Yukon. The strongest winds are anticipated to be near
Skagway and Lynn Canal. Currently, strong breezes to near gales are
most likely, but the gradient could increase as we get closer.

Along with stronger winds, we are going to see cooler temperatures
across most of the panhandle with overnight lows getting below
freezing across the panhandle Thursday night. These temperatures are
nothing atypical for this time of year, but it would be the coldest
some places have gotten so far this season.

Behind the week outflow, another system once again enters the gulf
Friday into the weekend. This once again increases winds across the
gulf and panhandle. As well, it sends moderate to heavy
precipitation across the panhandle. The main question with this end
of week system is what precipitation type will fall. With cold air
in place, we could see accumulating snow into the central panhandle.
We will continue to monitor these upcoming systems. The stronger the
outflow is, the more likely the chance for snow will be.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 00Z Tuesday/...An impactful weakening area of low
pressure is pushing its way northward, away from southeast Alaska
this evening. Some breezy conditions with primarily MVFR conditions
dipping into the IFR category for far northern areas experiencing
snow, early on, are in store this evening. Overnight, generally a
brief break will occur, decreasing wind speeds & LLWS values, &
giving us MVFR/IFR category range flight conditions. Breezy SFC
wind conditions out ahead of a new frontal system will approach
the region from the southwest on Monday, which will also end up
lowering flight conditions back to the MVFR/IFR range & increasing
winds, once again. LLWS magnitudes up to around 35 kt are in
store out of a generally southerly direction, centered up at
around 2 kft, with the highest values the farther south in the
panhandle & the nearer to the Outer Coast that you go.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters: A strong low that brought high winds to
a majority of the panhandle continues to weaken and lift inland
over the panhandle Sunday afternoon. W gale force winds (35 kt)
will continue through the evening hours for most areas as the W
flow on the south side of the low takes over as the low moves into
the Yukon. Into tonight expect a diminishing trend in wind and
waves and a shift to southerly for wind direction before the next
front arrives Monday from the W bringing more gale force winds and
building seas upwards of 20 ft.

Inside Waters: With the low both aloft and at the surface finally
pushing into the panhandle Sunday afternoon, stronger southerly
winds in the south have progressed up to the Icy Strait corridor,
with Cross Sound flipping out of the West as of 4pm. These
westerly winds will continue Sunday night, diminishing into Monday
morning as the gradient slackens and eventually flips again with
the next approaching gale force front Monday night. The far
northern panhandle is still awaiting the southerly push, with Lynn
Canal continuing to blow out of the north around 15 kt. This flip
is expected by the early evening with winds reaching 25 to 30 kt.
Seas will mainly range around 4 to 6 ft with higher seas near
ocean entrances. Winds and seas should then start a gradual
diminishing trend late tonight into early Monday before starting
to increase again Monday afternoon as the next front pushes into
the panhandle.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The heaviest rainfall and primary moisture transport
into the region has been progressively moving eastward through
Sunday afternoon. Lingering moderate to heavy rain showers on the
backside of the front will persist through the evening hours
particularly for the southern panhandle, where a flood advisory
remains in effect through Sunday evening for flooding due to
excessive rainfall for the Ward Lake recreation area in the
vicinity of Lake Connell Dam.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ318.
Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ322.
Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ323.
Strong Wind Monday afternoon for AKZ323-327-328.
Strong Wind Monday afternoon for AKZ330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-641>644-652-661>664-671-672.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-031>036-053-651.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...STJ
HYDROLOGY...STJ

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