Graphical Hydro Meteorological Discussion

591
FXAK68 PAFC 111406
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
506 AM AKST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Thursday)...

Satellite imagery this morning reveals a mature, weakening low in
the eastern Gulf of Alaska analyzed at 987mb and drifting north
toward Yakutat. On the western flank of this low exists a broad
shield of higher-level clouds draped across the eastern Copper
River Basin from the Wrangells through the eastern Chugach.
Elsewhere, clear skies have prevailed across much of Southcentral
AK outside of some additional cirrus from the Kenai west. The
clear skies paired with high pressure have allowed temperatures to
drop into the lower teens and single digits across much of the
area, with below zero temperatures currently observed across much
of the Copper River Basin. VIIRS nighttime microphysics imagery
shows fog has developed in some spots such as in the Knik Valley
and Turnagain Pass, along with a few other isolated locations.
Latest trends don`t suggest much spatial growth in the fog, likely
due to significant dry air just above the surface as observed in
the 12z PAFC RAOB. In fact, the webcam at the Palmer Airport shows
the patchy fog layer to be quite shallow, suppressed by this dry
air and strong inversion. Wouldn`t rule out some additional growth
this morning, but this may be limited to land adjacent to open
bodies of water.

A tight pressure gradient (nearly 20mb between the low and the
Denali Highway) between this weakening Gulf low and a building
interior ridge continues to support strong offshore gap winds in all
the usual places - Seward/Resurrection Bay, Whittier/Passage
Canal, Copper River delta, etc with gusts as high as 45 mph being
observed thus far overnight.

The observed weather analyzed above will be what we see through
the day. The low will continue to weaken as it drifts inland, thus
reducing the pressure gradient and the outflow winds with this.
However, this will be quite gradual over the course of the day and
most of the gap locations will continue to see gusty winds until
Wednesday. Temperatures will continue to be colder - colder than
climatological average - with the coldest day of the season
expected for most locations around the area.

A stronger shortwave trough will eject into the Gulf of Alaska on
Wednesday. Renewed onshore flow coincident with the remnant moisture
from the previous low will allow the develop of rain/snow across the
Prince William Sound with showers advecting into the adjacent
mountains and possibly into the coastal towns such as Whittier. At
this time, any accumulation looks to be on the lighter side.

Elsewhere across Southcentral, mostly clear, calm, and
meteorologically-quiescent conditions should prevail through
Wednesday. Cloud cover spreads across the area Thursday with a
decaying front, but shouldn`t really impact Southcentral outside
of the standard dose of winter gray.

-Brown

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

As of this morning, a well defined 500 mb shortwave trough is
digging southeastward across the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta region. As
a result, this upper level energy has allowed a small, compact
area of low pressure to form at the surface, which can be seen on
satellite situated northwest of the Bethel area. Areas of fog, low
stratus, and scattered snow flurries/showers are the main impacts
this morning. Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery paints low
stratus and fog across most of Southwest Alaska, the Eastern
Bering, and Bristol Bay locations. The global models as well as
the high resolution guidance has done a good job initializing this
feature of interest. All of the guidance this morning wants to
dissipate the surface low through this afternoon, though it will
still keep relatively unsettled weather in the forecast through
this evening and early Wednesday morning for Southwest Alaska.

Meanwhile, across the Western and Central Aleutians, a northwest
to southeast oriented gale force front has pushed its way across
the Western Aleutians, and is poised to move eastward through this
evening. The models show this front weakening as it progresses
eastward, with small craft sustained winds in store for the
Pribilof Islands as the front itself begins to pivot and elongate.
The front nears the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Bristol Bay areas
Wednesday afternoon. Models diverge on the exact setup as the
front nears the coast, with some of the guidance still showing a
loosely defined trough/front, with others pinching off a small
area of low pressure embedded within the trough axis. These small
differences are important because as precipitation works its way
inland across Southwest Alaska Wednesday afternoon, thermal
profiles will be cold enough to support snow, which coupled with
gusty winds, increases the chance of blowing snow. Due to the
guidance showing some agreement on the front/trough making little
progress inland, this should keep blowing snow potential mostly
confined to coastal areas.

Looking forward to Thursday evening, the global models bring a
strong gale force low northward from the North Pacific and into
the Alaska Peninsula. Models do differ on intensity and placement
of this low, and the ECMWF seems to be the outlier as of now
bringing the low north of the Alaska Peninsula and into the
southern Bering. A much larger and stronger baroclinic low
pressure system, not associated with the remnants of Typhoon Fung-
Wong, moves somewhere in the vicinity of the Western
Aleutians/Western Bering this weekend. There are a lot of details
to iron out with this system and overall forecaster confidence is
lower than average at this time. Please stay tuned and monitor the
forecast for this upcoming system.

-AM

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

A vertically stacked low over the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula for the second half of this week slides east into the
Gulf of Alaska by Saturday. Gusty westerly to northwesterly winds
ranging from small craft to gales along with diminishing
precipitation are anticipated on the back side of this system for
the Eastern Aleutians and AKPen. For Southwest and much of
Southcentral Alaska, seasonably cool temperatures and relatively
quiet weather is expected Friday into Saturday, with the greatest
chances for periods of precipitation remaining mainly along the
northern Gulf coast and Kodiak Island as the low tracks towards
Southeast Alaska.

The bigger story continues to be a much stronger storm lifting
out of the North Pacific towards the Central Aleutians this
weekend. Deterministic models and ensemble guidance are loosely in
agreement for a sub 950 mb low reaching the Aleutian Chain
sometime Saturday into Sunday as it merges with an upper level
trough in the western Bering Sea. Confidence is currently high
that as the storm arrives, the Aleutian Chain is likely to see
moderate to heavy rain and sustained high end gale to storm force
winds through the weekend. As we head further into the weekend and
into early next week, there remains a high degree of uncertainty
with regards to the track and intensification of the low as it
tracks across the Aleutians and into the southern Bering as model
spread significantly increases by this point. While most guidance
generally favors the storm remaining over the southern Bering, the
GFS continues to depict the storm deepening to a sub 940 mb low
and tracking north into the central Bering. If this scenario were
to play out, impacts such as heavy rain, a prolonged period of
strong south-southeasterly winds, and high seas would affect much
more of the region including the Pribilof Islands as well as the
Kuskokwim Delta coast through the early part of next week. The
impacts from this storm will be highly dependent on the storm
track, and we continue to closely monitor and update the forecast
as confidence in the strength and track of the storm increases.

-JH

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Clear skies and light winds this morning will bring a
returning threat for fog and low stratus to develop along the Knik
Arm. This could lead to a return to IFR conditions or lower if it
manages to move south near the terminal at any point from this
morning into tonight, although this potential for fog to extend
into west Anchorage remains highly uncertain. Otherwise, light
winds and VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period if
fog and low stratus fail to form.

-AS

&&
$$

853
FXAK69 PAFG 111200
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
300 AM AKST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Persistence continues to hold strong with this forecast with
little change to the overall pattern. A low spinning off the YK-
Delta coast will continue to provide them with chances for snow
showers throughout today. This band of energy will become
elongated as a frontal system works its way NE from the southern
Bering. The front is not expected to move far NE from the YK-Delta
as low pressure will begin building over the Interior Wednesday
night. This will continue to provide the North Slope with cold
temperatures and snow showers. This will also keep some low lying
clouds in areas across the Interior. Areas that remain free of
clouds will continue to see a drop in temperatures over the next
several days.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Clearing skies and predominantly dry conditions are expected
for the week ahead.

- Highs will be in the low single digits, with some areas staying
below 0 degrees.

- Colder temperatures continue to build in mid to late week as
highs drop to the single digits above and below zero with
widespread lows below zero. Coldest spots could see lows drop
into the double digits below zero.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Snow chances will continue across the YK-Delta, St. Lawrence
Island, and Norton Sound coastal areas through the morning hours.

- Conditions remain dry across the Western Interior with clearer
skies supporting areas of dense fog/low stratus and cold
temperatures.

- Dry conditions return later today along the West Coast outside
of isolated snow showers further south, ahead of another front
building into Southwest Alaska Wednesday into Thursday with
another round of snow and breezy winds.

- Highs in the teens and 20s with lows in the single digits above
and below zero and teens. Warmer conditions on St. Lawrence
Island with highs in the 20s and 30s with lows in the 20s.
Temperatures trend colder overall midweek.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Light snow continues across the North Slope and Eastern Brooks
Range today throughout the day. Additional accumulations through
up to around 1-3", locally higher across the NE Arctic Coast.

- Northeast winds prevail along the Arctic Coast through midweek,
strongest further west from Utqiagvik to Point Hope.

- Dry conditions return region wide tomorrow night into Wednesday
as a colder and drier airmass settles in overhead.

- Highs early this week in the teens and 20s across the Arctic
Coast and single digits and teens for the Arctic Plains and
Brooks Range, with lows in the single digits and teens to below
zero further inland.

- Colder temperatures continue to build in mid to late week as
highs drop mostly to the single digits above and below zero with
widespread lows below zero. Coldest spots could see double
digit below zero lows.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
The broad troughing that has been dominating across the state is
looking to move out and set up a more benign pattern with
scattered areas of energy and less pronounced systems. Looking
over the West Coast, a low continues to spin just off of the coast
of the YK-Delta. Which will continue to provide snow showers for
the YK-Delta through throughout the day. As the day progresses,
this energy will become elongated in a NW-SE orientation as a
ridge pushes east. A shortwave feature will begin to move NE from
the Aleutians, behind the newly developed elongated band. This
shortwave will bring the next front to the YK-Delta coast by
Wednesday afternoon. The front will not be able to move across
the Interior as low pressure will begin to build up and move W/SW
from the eastern Brooks Range. This low that will move across the
Interior will set up E-NE flow across the Brooks Range, including
scattered snow showers and colder temperatures. This will also
provide scattered low lying clouds across the Interior at times,
which may limit some of the cooler temperatures from developing.
Some light snow showers may be possible along the Dalton Highway
Summits and northwest Interior Wednesday night into Thursday.

To add on, an Arctic high will continue to build up and move SW
towards Siberia mid week. This, along with the low over the
Interior, will result in a gradual increase in the east winds over
the NW Arctic coast beginning Wednesday afternoon. The strongest
winds are expected to develop over the Lisburne Peninsula by
Thursday afternoon.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Global models continue to show good agreement at the start of the
extended with a broad area of low pressure across the state.
Models continue to show the likelihood for a coastal system to
move across the Aleutians and into the southern Bering Sea by the
end of the weekend. However, the Canadian brings this system
across the Aleutians almost 18 hours ahead of the other global
models. Comparing to previous runs, all of the models are still
having trouble getting a handle on the exact positioning. This low
will bring the next best chance for snow showers across the
Central Interior Sunday into Monday.

Looking farther north over the North Slope, another low will be
moving E to W across the Arctic coast around the end of the
weekend. The EC stands out amongst others as the faster solution.
These two lows will create gusty easterly winds across the West
Coast and NW Arctic Coast, beginning Sunday afternoon, with
potential gusts up to 45 mph.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ811.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812-813-858-859.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817-854.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ857.

&&

$$

Twombly

450
FXAK67 PAJK 111811
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
911 AM AKST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SHORT TERM...A low remains in the Northeastern Gulf this morning
bringing rain to most of the panhandle and snow to the highways.
The low is expected to remain over the area while is continues to
weaken and fill for the middle part of the week. With the showers,
some showers could be gusty as well as the very isolated potential
for an occasional lightning strike as these showers hit the
terrain after moving off the water. As the low continues to
weaken, winds across the area are expected to diminish as well so
conditions are expected to improve as we head into Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...
Cooler temperatures and drier conditions quickly
develop after Tuesday as a low pressure system moves to the south of
the panhandle. This will bring weak outflow and northerly winds
across the inner channels as a high develops over the Yukon at
around 1010mb. The strongest winds are anticipated to be near
Skagway and across Lynn Canal. Currently, strong breezes to near
gales of 20 to 30 kts are the most likely. This is mainly seen in
similarities in model pressure gradients, showing around a 3 mb
difference between Skagway and Juneau late Wednesday.

Along with stronger winds, we are going to see cooler temperatures
across most of the panhandle with overnight lows getting below
freezing across the panhandle Thursday night. Specifically there is
around a 40 to 60% chance of less than 30 degree temperatures over
the southern panhandle Thursday into Friday. The central and
northern panhandle both have a medium to high likelihood of low
temperatures less than 25 degrees. These temperatures are nothing
atypical for this time of year, but it would be the coldest most
places have gotten so far this season.

Behind the week outflow, another system once again enters the gulf
Friday into the weekend. This once again increases winds across the
gulf and panhandle. As well, it sends moderate to heavy
precipitation across the panhandle. The main question with this end
of week system is what precipitation type will fall. With cold air
in place, we could see accumulating snow into the central panhandle.
We will continue to monitor these upcoming systems. The colder the
temperatures are leading up to the weekend system, the more likely
it is for precipitation to fall as snow into the Icy Strait
Corridor.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 18Z Wednesday/...Generally, ceilings &
visibilities in the MVFR/VFR flight category range & diminishing
shower activity are anticipated through the TAF period. There will
be breezy conditions north of the Icy Strait Corridor as the
pressure gradient will remain relatively tighter over that area.
LLWS magnitudes of up to 30 - 35 kt out of an average southerly
direction centered up at around 2 kft remain for the day on
Tuesday. Southern panhandle areas that will have the most breaks
in the clouds & the lightest winds due to having a more relaxed
pressure gradient may have some areas of fog, lowering conditions
to around the IFR/LIFR category Tuesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters: The remnants of a gale force low continue to spin
near Yakutat this morning. This low continues to weaken as it
remains in the NE Gulf coast. Winds are expected to continue with
strong breezes before diminishing throughout the day closer to
moderate to fresh breezes. Headed into tomorrow, winds will
continue to decrease closer to gentle breezes allowing for calming
weather across the Gulf and outer coast. Wave heights continue to
be around 23 ft according to the Cape Edgecumbe buoy this morning
but should continue to decrease throughout the day today as both
the swell and wind waves diminish. By this afternoon, most places
across the outer coast look to be down to 8-14 ft seas before
coming down to 7-9 ft by this time tomorrow.

Inside Waters: Winds across the Inner Channels this morning
continue to remain around fresh to strong breezes with some
isolated pockets of near gales. Winds will continue to remain
elevated through the morning before decreasing this afternoon
closer to fresh breezes. The exception to this is expected to be
Lynn Canal which is expected to remain closer to near gales until
this evening when it diminishes closer to a fresh breeze. Headed
into tomorrow, outflow conditions continue to look likely for the
Inner Channels with winds shifting to out of the north by tomorrow
morning.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until noon AKST today for AKZ318-319.
Strong Wind until noon AKST today for AKZ319.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-022-031-032-034-053-641>644-
651-652-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...SF

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