Graphical Hydro Meteorological Discussion

091
FXAK68 PAFC 140152
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
452 PM AKST Tue Jan 13 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The short term forecast in Southcentral starts off with continued
light snowfall from the Kenai Peninsula through Anchorage and the
Mat-Su Valley. This is being caused by a low moving up the Gulf.
As the low moves onshore near Yakutat Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning, gusty winds and heavy snowfall is expected in Thompson
Pass, bringing about periods of blowing snow. Due to the threat of
visibility reductions below 1 miles, a Winter Weather Advisory has
been issued for Thompson Pass from Wednesday morning to late
Wednesday evening for blowing snow. a front will lift into the
North Gulf behind the low, bringing another round of snowfall to
Southcentral including Anchorage and the Mat- Su Valley late
Wednesday morning. This snowfall is expected to taper off by the
evening hours of Wednesday.

Thursday is the start of the big event of the week. An atmospheric
river and a low will move up into Alaska. Much warmer air will
arrive with these features. The exact track and speed of the low
is incredibly uncertain with every day showing radically
different solutions. As a result, details of the event have been
difficult to pin down. What is known is that there will be a large
warm-up across Southcentral, with temperatures likely rising to
the positive 30s and even 40s. Another detail that is known is
that heavy precipitation will arrive due to the large plume of
moisture making its way directly into the Gulf Coast. It is likely
that the moisture profile will become saturated to the point that
downsloping will be overcome, allowing for high precipitation
chances just about everywhere. Before temperatures rise above
freezing it is likely that a period of snowfall will occur. This,
in combination with the stronger winds the event may trigger
blowing snow for a time. As temperatures rise, freezing rain is
possible as higher elevations will warm faster than the surface.
Freezing rain is most likely in the Kenai Peninsula. Anchorage is
much more unclear in precipitation type. Eventually, surface
temperatures may rise above freezing at the surface, allowing for
precipitation to become either a mix of rain and snow or just
rain. The threat does not end with this as rain falling onto
frozen surfaces could create slick conditions. Due to the threat
of blowing snow/freezing rain/rain on frozen surfaces, a Winter
Storm Watch has been issued for the Kenai Peninsula and the
Portage and Girdwood areas. Again, there is much uncertainty with
this event and the forecast will continue to evolve with many
changes likely as details become more clear.

-JAR

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Friday)...

Key Messages:

* The arrival of clouds over much of Southwest AK today has
allowed temperatures and wind chills to moderate. While the
coldest conditions have passed, Cold Weather Advisories remain
in effect for the entire region through Wednesday morning.

* A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Aleutian
chain from Adak to Atka for snow and blowing snow Wednesday
morning through Thursday morning.

* A major pattern shift is on the way for Thursday into Friday.
This will bring an atmospheric river with abundant moisture and
warmer air up to Southwest AK. There is high uncertainty in the
track of key weather features. However, it looks increasingly
likely that Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Valley will see
significant weather impacts, including heavy snow, blowing snow,
and freezing rain.

Discussion:

A high amplitude pattern is in place with a blocking ridge over
far eastern Russia, an upper low over the Beaufort Sea with a
trough extending southwestward across the heart of the Bering Sea,
and a downstream ridge along the west coast of CONUS and British
Columbia. Short-waved embedded within the Bering trough are
digging southward, with Arctic air once again pouring southward
across Western AK and the Bering Sea. Gusty northerly winds and
low wind chills persist across all of Southwest AK. However,
short-waves headed northward up the west side of the North
American ridge have brought clouds and light snow to the northern
Alaska Peninsula (including Pilot Point, Naknek, King Salmon) and
northward to Iliamna and up along the western Alaska Range. The
snow and clouds (which have spread further west across SW AK) have
helped moderate both air temperatures and wind chill readings. As
a result, modified Cold Weather products to raise wind chills and
move up the end time. Winds will lighten up across SW AK tonight
through Wednesday as a major pattern change ensues.

A compact surface low has developed ahead of one of the digging
short-waves in the central Bering Sea. This low is on track to
impact the central Aleutians, including Adak and Atka beginning
Wednesday morning. Model spread is fairly large on the exact
track of this low and areas most likely to see the strongest winds
and heaviest snow as the low moves through Wednesday through
Wednesday night. Made some adjustments to the wind and snow
accumulation forecast based on latest model trends. Right now it
looks like Adak will see some of the strongest winds while Atka
will see some of the heaviest snow. While confidence is high in
periods of snow and blowing snow with low visibility, confidence
in where heaviest snow and strongest winds are located at any
given time is low.

The Bering trough will dig all the way south into the North
Pacific, with multiple short-waves phasing and consolidating into
a single trough Wednesday night. Meanwhile, a ridge will rapidly
amplify to the east from the Northeast Pacific to mainland Alaska.
The consolidated trough will then lift northward up the west side
of the ridge and bring impactful weather to southern AK Thursday
through Friday. Model spread in the track of the short-wave and
associated surface low is large. Deterministic models continue to
change from run-to-run while ensemble guidance is also shifting.
As a result, confidence is the details of the forecast are low.
Based on agreement in the overall large-scale pattern, there is a
good chance that Southwest AK is impacted with heavy snow, blowing
snow, and freezing rain. Stay tuned as we continue to monitor
this pattern change and hone in on the forecast for Southwest AK.

-SEB

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

The long term forecast begins with an amplified pattern over much
of Alaska. A broad trough will be in place over the central
Bering on Friday with strong southerly flow downstream of the
trough, extending from the North Pacific up into Southcentral
Alaska. Potential impacts from this atmospheric river will entail
gusty winds into the northern Gulf coast and Prince William Sound,
widespread rain showers into the coast, heavy snow at higher
elevations, and a significant warm up in temperatures across all
of Southcentral. The amplified pattern begins to break down on
Saturday with a ridge of high pressure building over the eastern
Bering and Southwest Alaska. A deepening trough west of the
Aleutians will serve to reinforce downstream ridging through the
end of the long term period early next week.

Models continue to exhibit small differences with the overall
strength and track of the low Thursday into Friday, and there is
still potential for changes to the forecast over the next 48
hours. However, overall confidence is increasing that the
strongest winds will occur offshore of the Southcentral Coast from
Kayak Island into Prince William Sound. Gales with gusts to 50+
knots are currently forecast. If the low on Thursday takes a track
further north, the potential would increase for high winds
through the Eastern Turnagain Arm lower elevations. Currently, the
highest inland winds are forecast to remain over the mountains.

One last area of concern will be across the Central Aleutians
early on Friday. A vigorous area of low pressure is progged to
lift into the region with the potential for hurricane force gusts.
This low is followed up with a large frontal system into the
western Bering and Aleutians Sunday into Monday.

-BL

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Snow and MVFR conditions will persist into tonight. IFR
conditions, especially IFR visibilities, are possible within
pockets of heavier snow showers Wednesday morning. North to
northeast winds around 10 kts or less will persist through much of
the TAF period before turning turning southerly Wednesday morning
as light snow continues.

&&

$$

843
FXAK69 PAFG 132249
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
149 PM AKST Tue Jan 13 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A winter storm is expected to bring heavy snow to a large swath of
northern Alaska with blizzard conditions expected for the Alaska
Range passes and portions of the West Coast. There may be small
patches of light mixed precipitation along and near the north facing
slopes of the Alaska Range. This storm begins late Wednesday night
for the Alaska Range and the southern interior then spreads north to
the Brooks Range by Thursday night. A cold front ends the most
impactful winter weather from southwest to northeast on Friday, but
additional areas of snowfall appear likely over the weekend. Before
the winter storm arrives, bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills
continue under clear skies. The band of clouds and light snow across
the southeastern interior doesn`t move much until late tonight into
Wednesday when a disturbance lifts north across the AK Range. This
disturbance brings up to 2 inches of new snow to the southeast
interior before clearing ahead of a strong warm front lifting north
late Wednesday night.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
-Bitterly cold temperatures as cold as the 40s/50s below zero
continue for valley locations under clear skies with temperatures
warming into the 10s/20s below zero under cloudy skies.

-South-facing Alaska Range slopes pick up 3 to 6 inches of snow
through Wednesday night with locally higher amounts up to 10 inches
near Isabel Pass. Up to 2 inches of snow across the southeast
interior north of the Alaska Range.

-A strong storm brings heavy precipitation and strong winds to large
portions of the Alaska Range and interior late this week. The worst
conditions are expected Thursday night through Friday.
-For the Richardson Highway, up to 20 inches of snow and south
wind gusts up to 80 mph are likely to result in blizzard
conditions.
-For the Parks Highway, up to 12 inches of snow and south wind gusts
up to 65 mph are likely to result in blizzard conditions.
-For the Steese Highway 3 to 6 inches of snow and southerly
wind gusts up to 60 mph are likely to result in blizzard
conditions.
-For the Dalton Highway, up to 12 inches of snow and south wind
gusts up to 35 mph are likely to result in hazardous driving
conditions.
-For the Fairbanks area, significantly warmer temperatures that
may warm above freezing, strong southerly wind gusts up to 40
mph, and up to 3 inches of snow are possible.

West Coast and Western Interior...
-Bitterly cold and mostly clear through tonight with interior
valleys in the 40s/50s below zero and wind chills as cold as 60
below zero are possible.

-A strong storm brings heavy precipitation and strong winds to large
portions of the Alaska Range and interior late this week. The worst
conditions are expected Thursday night through Friday.
-For St. Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait, 3 to 6 inches of
snow and wind gusts up to 60 mph are likely to result in
blizzard conditions.
-For the Western Interior, 6 to 12 inches of snow and wind gusts
up to 35 mph.
-Along other portions of the West Coast, 3 to 6 inches of snow
are likely.

-Snow chances and much warm temperatures continue through this
weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
-A strong winter storm impacts portions of the Brooks Range,
including Atigun Pass with snow and wind gusts up to 50 mph leading
to potential for blizzard conditions.

-Cold Weather Advisories remain in effect through Wednesday
afternoon for wind chills as low as 70 below zero across the eastern
Arctic Coast and Brooks Range.

-Southwest winds gust up to 40 mph Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday morning after a lull on Tuesday resulting in localized
blizzard conditions at times.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...

A line of clouds as observed on satellite is moving very slowly from
the south. It is associated to the next system (currently over the
Gulf of Alaska) that will affect us later this week. These clouds
allow temperatures to slightly warm up in the Eastern/Central
Interior tonight into tomorrow. Very cold temperatures persist in
the Western Interior without the cloud cover. A high amplitude
trough extending in from the Beaufort Sea through the Bering Sea
splits into two closed-lows, while pulling a plume of moisture all
the way from Hawaii towards us over the next few days. Meanwhile,
near the surface a frontal boundary will increase the chances for
snow tonight into tomorrow, but snow accumulations should be in the
lighter side.

By Thursday, the upper shortwave along with its associated warm
front will push north towards the Alaska Range and the Interior
bringing significant chances for snow and gusty winds. The plume of
moisture and warm air arrives very late Thursday into Friday. This
setup also allows for a strong pressure gradient to develop near the
Alaska Range resulting in strong winds that combined with the snow
may lead to blizzard conditions in areas near and over the range,
and other wind-prone areas. Otherwise, expect moderate to heavy
accumulations of snow across much of the interior. The West Coast
will also see be affected by gusty winds and snow as the gradient
extends out there. The warm air mass also brings a low probability
of a wintry mix on Friday, as temperatures warm up for areas from
the AK Range into the southern portions of the Eastern/Central
Interior.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Friday night through Monday Night...

Active weather conditions persist into the weekend with a couple of
minor disturbances bringing periods of snow, initially for the
western Interior/Coast, then moving into the Central/Eastern
Interior and subsequently into the North Slopes and Brooks Range
late into the weekend. Afterwards, it appears that a high pressure
area strengthens and expands over much of the state leading to
warmer temperatures and very likely above zero.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ804-805-809-828>830-852.
Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ831>834-845-846.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ805.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805-851.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807-816-817-850-853-854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
&&

$$

Kutta: Synopsis and Key Messages
Crespo: Forecast Analysis and Extended

543
FXAK67 PAJK 140033
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
333 PM AKST Tue Jan 13 2026

.SHORT TERM...No major changes to the storm force system
impacting the panhandle today into tomorrow. Moderate to heavy
rainfall has begun across the panhandle into this afternoon as the
first front pushed though from S to N, with the highest rates
having already fallen for the southern panhandle, and are
currently happening and lasting into tonight for the central and
up into the northern panhandle tonight as the front continues
quickly moving northward. The following frontal passage remains
largely a wind concern, with lighter rates expected than the first
round that has been moving through today. Precipitation amounts
will overall decrease into Wednesday and through Wednesday night.
Overall 0.5 to 1.5 more inches tonight and another 0.25 to 1 inch
Wednesday with the highest amounts expected in the northern half
of the panhandle tonight into tomorrow, and amounts in the
southern panhandle decreasing into tonight.

The primary impacts from the system are still expected to be the
high winds, which have already begun to increase into this afternoon
starting from the southern panhandle and will push northward by
tonight. High wind warnings remain in effect for a majority of
the panhandle Tuesday into Wednesday for wind gusts as high as 65
mph. Strong southerly winds will continue pushing up through N/S
oriented channels this afternoon through tonight as the front
pushes northward, with the northern panhandle seeing these
elevated winds lasting into Wednesday. Once the low center jumps
onshore somewhere between Icy Bay and Deception Hills, the
strongest inner channel winds will push through Stephens Passage
and Lynn Canal, with some elevated winds lingering in northern
Lynn through Wednesday.

Another important note is the expected wind shift in Cross Sound,
with the strongest winds and gusts expected late Tuesday night
into early Wednesday, sometime after midnight. Winds are expected
to abruptly shift from NE to SW as the southern edge of the
elongated low center slides north of Cross Sound. Of the
communities across the panhandle, the areas expected to see the
highest winds and gusts from this system will be the outer coastal
communities from Sitka up to Cross Sound. Strong southerly winds
along the coast shifting to become SW to W into Cross Sound will
bring some elevated SW winds into areas like Elfin Cove, though
the higher winds are expected to be quick and drop back down soon
after as the tightened pressure gradient quickly diminishes.
Confidence has increased on the track of the low before it pushes
up into the Yakutat area, increasing the confidence in the timing
of the wind shift and highest winds and gusts across the
panhandle.

In terms of snow, some minor snow accumulations remain possible for
the highest portions of the Haines Highway near the border, with
around 2 inches expected tonight and up to 1 inch expected tomorrow
as a more wet snow is expected due to the higher snow levels and
warmer temperatures. The upper reaches of the Klondike are more
likely to see prolonged snow as snow levels there are only expected
to reach between 2000 to just under 3000 ft, with cooler
temperatures enough to keep snow ratios higher than at lower
elevations. A winter storm warning stays in effect for the upper
portions of the Klondike Highway, particularly near White Pass, for
accumulations of 12 to 20 inches of snow as well as strong winds
gusting as high as 65 mph.

.LONG TERM...Quieter weather looks to return for the long term
forecast with high pressure moving into the region. Most of the
panhandle will see winds diminish with the exception of the Gulf
waters where southerly winds will continue. Conditions for the
Inner Channels are expected to improve with the decreasing winds
and temperatures are expected to remain in the high 30s to low 40s
depending on your location in the panhandle. The exception to
this quieter weather is expected to be for the NE Gulf coast as an
atmospheric river that will be impacting from Prince William
Sound over to Icy Bay will bring heavy rain. This rain is expected
to remain confined to places west of Yakutat with 24 hour rain
amounts getting up to 2-2.5 inches during the heaviest amounts.
For the rest of the panhandle, the biggest concern is for the
development of fog across the area as high pressure settles into
the region creating an inversion and trapping moisture from the
previous rain events as well as the melting snow across SE AK.
With high pressure taking control, the main thing that will need
to be watched in the extended will be when does this high pressure
either break down or shift so the flow direction changes allowing
for a change in the pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...Flying conditions this afternoon continue to slowly
deteriorate across the panhandle from south to north. MVFR CIGs
continue to be reported while MVFR and IFR VIS are becoming a lot
more prevalent from observations across the region. With the
approaching low, conditions are expected to continue to be less
than favorable as LLWS and turbulence will increase as the low
approaches the panhandle. The worst flying conditions are expected
this evening before starting to slowly improve tomorrow during
the day. With onshore flow returning behind the low for the latter
half of the TAF period, CIGs and VIS along the outer coast are
expected to remain around MVFR while there should be some better
improvement for the Inner Channels.


&&

.MARINE...
The simple message for tonight: mariners should seek safe harbor
now. A storm force front will push across the Gulf and inside
through Wednesday, bringing widespread gale force conditions, with
some inner passages seeing storm force conditions. Harbors/areas
north of Frederick exposed to SW winds should make ready for a
southwest wind switch sometime tonight into Wednesday morning.

Outside (Gulf and Coastal waters):
As of 2 pm Alaska time southeasterly winds of fresh to strong
breezes are prevalent along our coast. Significant wave heights
are near 10 to 12 ft, dominated by southwesterly swell near 8 to
10 ft at 12 to 13 seconds with underlying southeast wind waves of
4 to 6 ft near 6 seconds. A third system is present but weak;
diminished NW swell from Cook Inlet. A dangerous system is pushing
north into the gulf, with storm force conditions anticipated for
much of our coast Tuesday night into Wednesday. A potent dynamic
fetch on the eastern flank of the low will generate large
southerly seas of 32 to 37 ft, with 20 ft seas pushing north into
Chatham Strait near Pt. Gardner. Fairweather grounds to Cross
Sound looks particularly dangerous as the front makes landfall
early Wednesday, with gusts to hurricane force expected. Mariners
should seek safe harbor now. Winds decrease through Wednesday;
however, periods of gale force winds continue into the end of the
week along the northern coast.

Inside (Inner Channels):
Southerly winds continue to increase across the inside as a storm
force low rapidly transits into the Gulf of Alaska. Many areas
will see sustained winds of gale force, with a few seeing storm
force conditions. Of particular concern is Cross Sound, Chatham
Strait/Sumner Ocean Entrances, Clarence, Stephens, and Lynn Canal.
Expect highest winds early tonight for the central and southern
areas (areas south of Frederick Sound), with high winds pushing
north through the night for areas north of Frederick. Lynn Canal
will see storm force winds Wednesday, with these strong winds
persisting longer.

One item of concern is the southwest switch associated with the
front making landfall. Harbors exposed to strong southwest winds
like Gustavus NPS dock, Statter Harbor, and facilities in Berners
Bay will see gusts to 40 knots or higher out of the southwest
Wednesday morning.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM AKST Wednesday
for AKZ317>319.
Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ318.
High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM AKST Wednesday
for AKZ320>322-324-325.
High Wind Warning until 6 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ323-326>330-
332.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ011>013-022-031-033-036-641>644-651-661>664-
671.
Gale Warning for PKZ021-032-034-035-053-652-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Contino
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...AP

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