Graphical Hydro Meteorological Discussion

270
FXAK68 PAFC 261303
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
503 AM AKDT Sun Apr 26 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Tuesday evening)...

An upper-level shortwave and associated surface trough situated
over northern Cook Inlet early this morning will both continue to
track east, exiting the region by midday. Clouds and showers
linger along the trough axis, with the bulk of the shower activity
over Prince William Sound, the Anchorage Bowl, and the Mat-Su
valleys. The showers over interior Southcentral are expected to
diminish by late morning, staying somewhat confined to the higher
elevations of the Talkeetna and Wrangell Mountains, as upper-level
support wanes.

A transient ridge in the wake of this first system will then
weaken by the time it gets to Southcentral later today as a second
upper-level shortwave moves over the western Gulf and Cook Inlet.
This wave is associated with a warm front attached to a strong
area of low pressure over the Bering Sea. Southeasterly flow out
ahead of the surface front will advect moisture in the form of
showers across Prince William Sound, the coastal mountains and
into the Susitna Valley for this afternoon and evening. The
upper-level wave lifting northward this afternoon will also result
in the development of southeasterly gap winds through typical
locations, with gusts up to 35 mph through Turnagain Arm and Knik
River Valley.

The surface warm front then stalls and occludes near Kodiak
Island Monday morning. a shortwave trough is then expected to ride
northward along the front, enhancing precipitation and winds
across Kodiak Island and the northwestern Gulf of Alaska. Both
feature then lift north across Cook Inlet by late Monday,
resulting in widespread steady precipitation across Prince William
Sound, the coastal mountains, and Alaska Range, a pattern very
similar to that experienced across Southcentral only a few days
ago. A developing surface low along the triple point will spin up
north of Kodiak Island and move into the Susitna Valley and weaken
Monday night. The track of this low will allow for redevelopment
of some very strong winds through Turnagain Arm, the Anchorage
Hillside, and Knik River Valley. Gusts around 45 mph are possible
for S and W Anchorage and Palmer along with gusts up 65 mph for
the Upper Hillside.

A trailing shortwave will then strengthen as it moves into the
western Gulf, becoming negatively tilted and spinning up a new
surface low near the Eastern Kenai Peninsula. Colder air will
rapidly move in behind the trough as winds diminish and
precipitation fills in over Cook Inlet, the Anchorage Bowl, and
Mat-Su Valleys. At this time, it does look like temperatures will
stay just warm enough for rain for lower elevations. However, as
snow levels fall to around 1,000ft Tuesday morning, rain will
likely changeover to snow for locations such as the Anchorage
Hillside, with light snow accumulations possible.

-TM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Tuesday)...

Key messages:

- Expect generally improving conditions beginning this afternoon
as our unseasonably strong Bering Sea low weakens through
Tuesday.

- A High Wind Warning remains in effect for Adak and Atka through
this afternoon for wind gusts up to 80 mph. A Wind Advisory also
remains in effect for Nikolski and Unalaska through this
afternoon, where wind gusts of up to 60-75 mph are expected.

- Widespread Gale to Storm Force winds will impact much of the
marine outlook area through Monday.

Discussion:

The forecast remains largely on track. Our unseasonably strong
Bering Sea low is currently north of Atka, with its front moving
into Southwest Alaska. Notable observed wind speeds with this
storm include a peak wind of 72 mph in St. George and 60-70 mph
winds in Adak, Atka, St. Paul, and Nelson Lagoon. As the low
continues northwards this morning, Adak, Atka, and Nikolski will
very likely see even stronger gusts as the core of strongest
winds moves across the south side of this low. As the front moves
into Southwest Alaska this morning, there is a chance for a brief
period of reduced visibilities along Kuskokwim Delta, based on the
conditions that were observed in the Pribilof Islands late
yesterday evening. However, with current temperatures lingering a
little above freezing, visibility reductions will likely not last
long before snow transitions to rain later today.

Between Monday and Tuesday, the low will stall out west of the
Pribilof Islands as it becomes vertically stacked and cut off from
the Pacific jet moving to the south. Steadier rain and snow along
the low`s front will give way to widespread rain and snow showers
as the low steadily weakens in place. Winds along the Aleutians
and across the Bering Sea will steadily decrease as the low
weakens, dropping from Storm Force to Gale Force sustained Sunday
night, then below Gale Force by Tuesday afternoon.

-AS/KC

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...


For the latter half of the week, Southcentral and Southwest
Alaska will remain in an active and unsettled weather pattern.
While the heaviest precipitation from the week`s first storm
should taper off by early Wednesday, a secondary disturbance is
expected to develop in the Gulf of Alaska. This system will likely
push a second round of rain and mountain snow into the region
starting late early Thursday and lingering through early Friday.
There is still some typical long-range uncertainty regarding the
exact track of this storm, which will ultimately determine which
specific coastal or inland areas see the most persistent rainfall.

Despite the damp conditions, a broad shift in airflow from the
south will trigger a noticeable warming trend across the state. As
this milder Pacific are moves in, daytime highs in the lower-
elevations areas are expected to climb into the 40s and 50s. This
temperature spike means that any precipitation at sea level will
almost certainly fall as rain, while the snow line will retreat to
higher elevations.

As the weekend arrives, the region stays within this active
stretch, with continued cloudy skies and intermittent showers
rather than a total clearing. While the individual weather systems
may weaken towards the weekend, the combination of lingering
moisture and warmer temperatures will persist across the southern
half of the state.


&&





.AVIATION...


PANC...VFR conditions and light, variable winds persist through
Sunday afternoon. After 00Z Monday, 3000 to 5000 ft ceilings may
be possible, and southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds redevelop,
peaking around 06Z Monday at 12 to 18 knots with gusts up to 30
knots before bending south, away from the terminal area by 15Z
Monday.

&&


$$

343
FXAK69 PAFG 261214
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
414 AM AKDT Sun Apr 26 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A picturesque low in the Bering Sea is rapidly strengthening and
will occlude on Sunday as a front works its way northeast. This
front will bring rain, snow and east winds up to 45 mph to the
West Coast. The precipitation should be mostly light as the front
weakens. There may be some blowing snow in St. Lawrence Island but
temperatures across the coast will be in the 30s to near 40, so it
is not of great concern. This front moves towards the Interior
on Monday but will fizzle out before it gets there. Otherwise,
the Interior will be mild and mostly dry with southerly AK Range
gap winds increasing in the afternoon. Mild and dry weather
continues into Monday before rain/snow showers return on Tuesday
with a shortwave trough moving northward from the Gulf. The North
Slope and Brooks Range will have temperatures near to slightly
above normal with little to no precipitation expected until
Monday night and Tuesday. This precip could come as light
accumulating snow in the Brooks Range, especially towards Atigun
Pass.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Persistent chinook flow keeps highs near to above average, in
the 50s to near 60 across the interior valleys.

- Southerly gap winds gradually increase Sunday afternoon with
gusts up to 50 mph possible through Monday then decrease on
Tuesday.

- A front provides rain and snow showers on Tuesday. A few of
these may come with graupel which could result in the first
couple of lightning strikes of the year. The highest chance
(<5%) is in the Alaska Range Tuesday afternoon.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- A strong low in the Bering Sea brings easterly wind gusts around
35 to 45 mph and a mix of rain and wet snow for the West Coast
this morning through tonight. Blowing snow is not of great
concern.
* Snow accumulations up to 3 inches possible in St. Lawrence
Island.

- Easterly winds up to 45 mph bring potential for an ice shove
(ivu) across Maknik Lagoon today or tonight.

- Rain and snow showers persist through the week. High
temperatures range from the 40s and low 50s in the Interior to
mid and upper 30s along the coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- East winds increase tonight along the Chukchi Sea Coast with
gusts up to 35 mph persisting through Tuesday night.

- A cool front brings snow chances from west to east as early as
Monday nigh and especially Tuesday through Wednesday with
accumulations possible for Atigun Pass.

- High temperatures in the southern Brooks Range rise into the 40s
to near 50. The northern Brooks Range will range from the mid
20s to mid 30s. The Arctic Coast will be in the low to mid 20s
with Point Hope being in the upper 30s to near 40.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
The overall pattern won`t be changing much over the next week. An
upper low will remain over the Bering Sea with an upper high over
western Canada. At 500mb, there is a strengthening 498 decameter
low north of Adak, a shortwave trough extending from eastern
Siberia to the Gulf of Alaska, and a 564 decameter high in the
eastern Pacific extending northward towards the AlCan Border. The
main feature in this pattern is the low in the Bering which will
bring a front to the West Coast beginning this morning. This front
is becoming occluded but will still provide active weather to the
West Coast. Then, there is a second front that is coming from an
energetic shortwave pivoting around the Bering low that lifts
across northern Alaska Tuesday/Wednesday.

The occluding frontal system weakens as it moves into our area and
is moving into a seasonably warm air mass suggesting lesser impacts.
However, the combination of 6+ hours of steady cold rain or perhaps
very wet snow and easterly winds gusting up to 45 mph confirm that
it will be lousy weather as the front moves across the YK Delta,
Seward Peninsula, and St. Lawrence Island. Fortunately, there is
no great concern for blowing snow since due to the wet snow and
warm temperatures. The potential for an ice shove (ivu) continues
to be monitored across Maknik Lagoon. The southwest cape up to
Powooilak Camp is also exposed, but sea ice is farther offshore
and may not be able to reach the coast before winds weaken.

The next front brings mainly rain chances to many of the same
locations Monday and Monday night before shifting northeast across
the remainder of northern Alaska Tuesday through Wednesday. The
upper level disturbance is energetic and negatively tilted implying
strong dynamic forcing that could support convective showers with
charge separation for the first lightning strikes of the season.
Even if thunderstorms don`t materialize, graupel is definitely
possible with the stronger cells Tuesday afternoon/evening. Farther
south across the Alaska Range, southerly gaps winds and high
elevation snow are looking more likely. Snow levels appear to be
2500-3000 ft suggesting the Parks/Richardson highways won`t be
impacted, but heavy wet snow and strong winds may overload the
existing snow pack resulting in some avalanche potential.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
The extended forecast continues to feature troughing across the
Bering and ridging across western Canada resulting in southerly flow
over most of the state. The two most noteworthy features appear to
be the frontal boundary lifting across the Brooks Range Tuesday
night into Wednesday and the second is a low pressure system
tracking north near the YK Delta Wednesday night and Thursday. EFI
guidance is highlighting potential for unseasonable QPF and snowfall
across portions of the Brooks Range and North Slope with the frontal
boundary Tuesday night/Wednesday. EFI guidance indicates a similar
combination of unseasonable QPF/snowfall potential across the YK
Delta and St. Lawrence Island Wednesday night through Thursday
night. Elsewhere, southerly winds across the Central Interior/West
Coast and gusty winds through the Alaska Range passes remain
possible, especially Thursday/Friday when the WPC is highlighting
potential for high winds.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802-817-853.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-805-806-852.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850.
Gale Warning for PKZ851.
Gale Warning for PKZ854.
&&

$$

Bianco

585
FXAK67 PAJK 261324
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
524 AM AKDT Sun Apr 26 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

-- Benign pattern continues with nocturnal marine layer developing
overnight and diurnal afternoon sea breezes through early next
week.

- Warm temperatures expected through the weekend, with high
temperatures in the 50s in the northern panhandle and into the
60s across the southern panhandle.

- Sprinkles and isolated rain showers possible for parts of SE AK
Sunday into Monday. Light rain amounts expected Wednesday and
Thursday over much of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Quiet weather continues across the area, as a marine
layer which moved in overnight begins to pull back through the day
on Sunday. The remnants of a decaying front, trying to push over
the northern flank of the ridge axis which has remained anchored
across the area, will contribute to the possibility of a few
sprinkles or showers through the northern half of the panhandle.
High temperatures continue to reach into the 50s for the southern
panhandle, and into the upper 40s for much of the north, with
some 50s possible for locations like Juneau provided sufficient
clearing of the marine layer occurs during the daytime hours.
Winds will remain generally sea breeze different, with locations
like Skagway, Ketchikan, and Juneau seeing breezier conditions at
times.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Friday/
Drier conditions remain into the start of next week as high
pressure remains over the gulf. Unfortunately, Yakutat and the NE
gulf will continue to be most likely to see low clouds and
drizzle/light rain from a continued marine layer. Even though they
are most likely to continue to see low clouds, precipitation
totals remain low through mid week. Starting mid week, an area of
low pressure disrupts the ridge bringing widespread precipitation
back to the panhandle Wednesday into Thursday. At this time,
although precipitation chances increase, low rain amounts are
anticipated. Areas south of Yakutat have a 70 to 80% chance that
24 hour rain totals remain below 0.25 inches. Even Yakutat is most
likely to only see around 0.3 to 0.6 inches of rain in a 24 hour
period. Although there is still some disagreement, behind this
weak system a short break looks to return for a couple of days
before onshore flow strengthens again.

Wind during this time remains on the lighter side with late morning
to afternoon sea breezes developing. These sea breezes can slightly
increase winds by about 5 kts, but will mainly create changes in
wind direction. Otherwise, the strongest marine winds remain along
Clarence Strait into Dixon Entrance with fresh to strong breezes of
17 to 27 kts possible. Even these winds are anticipated to diminish
Monday into Tuesday as the ridge moves southward.

Looking at temperatures, with dry and partly sunny conditions
anticipated, near average to slightly warmer than average
temperatures will continue. Maximum temperatures will continue to
remain in the 50s through the start of the week. Even as cloud cover
returns, max temperatures might drop by a few degrees, but are likely
to remain near average in the low to mid 50s across SE AK. Highest
temperatures will be over inland areas.

&&

.AVIATION.../Through 12z Monday/... The high pressure system over
Southeast Alaska is not as strong as it was yesterday, but it is
still leading to fairly benign weather for Southeast Alaska.
Yakutat, Gustavus, and Juneau will likely see some impacts from
the marine layer. However, that should dissipate with the rising
sun quite quickly. Skagway is expected to see gusty winds, but
that should also dissipate with sunset Sunday.

The southern panhandle will see primarily VFR conditions through
the majority of the TAF period. The marine layer pushing into the
coast has CIGs sitting below 2500ft, and as low as 900ft at PAKW.
However, the marine layer should burn off with diurnal heating,
leading skies to clear up as we go through the day. Uncertainty
lies in the exact timing of when CIGs along the coast will clear
out, but are expected to follow a similar pattern as yesterday.
The southern most parts of the panhandle will see higher (about
15kt) and gusty winds later in the day, falling off again when
the sun goes down.

&&

.MARINE...

Very similar forecast to the past few days. A ridge remains
stalled over the panhandle, leading to NW flow for most of the
outer coast, with small craft conditions for seas and winds for
the SW Gulf, Dixon Entrance, in the vicinity of Cape Spencer.
Inside Channels continue to see sea breezes through the daytime
and evening hours, with winds reaching up to ~15 kt in places like
Taiya Inlet, Stephen`s Passage, and Clarence Strait at times. A
weak front moving across the Gulf on Tuesday will bring with it a
change in the pattern.

Outside Coastal Waters: Little change to the forecast as ridging
continues over the eastern gulf, keeping coastal winds relatively
calm with the exception of the southeastern gulf coast from Cape
Decision through Dixon Entrance and the far northern coast to the
west of Icy Bay. A low marine layer has been sitting offshore
through the past few days and will continue to push inland through
the coastal gulf waters through the weekend, which may reduce
visibility overnight. The southeastern gulf coast is seeing
northwesterly fresh breezes with wave heights of 7 to 10 ft flow
through Dixon Entrance and down Hecate Strait, which will persist
through Monday. Stronger northwesterly winds in the southeastern
gulf will extend north along the entire eastern gulf coast through
Sunday, with strong breezes flowing into Cross Sound. Wave
heights will follow suit, increasing to 7 to 9 ft in the areas of
strongest winds. Southwesterly swell of 2 to 4 ft at a period of
10 to 12 seconds will increase to 5 to 7 ft late Monday into
Tuesday.

Inside (Inner Channels): Inner channel winds remain under 15 kt
through early next week, with the exception of a few places. The
southern inner channels will see northwesterly fresh breezes
persist with the strongest areas being along the coast of Prince
of Wales Island, the Southern Chatham and Sumner Straits channel
entrances, and flowing out of southern Clarence Strait. When the
swath of stronger winds pushes north along the coast Sunday, fresh
breezes will begin to flow into Cross Sound and down Icy Strait.
Overnight, a low marine layer will attempt to push into channel
entrances such as Cross Sound and down the Icy Strait Corridor,
reaching further and further inland each night. Patchy fog may be
forming under the lower cloud decks of the marine layer.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-641>644-661-662-664.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...Musall/AGP
MARINE...GFS

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