Extended Range Weather Pattern Discussion

Updated: August 7, 2026

North and Central Texas Long Term Trends

The rest of the summer across North and Central Texas will have a preference to remain slightly above normal temperatures with below normal precipitation. The precipitation anomalies will be dominated by ENSO as there is a strong correlation between a dry summer/early fall and El Niño events like the one we are currently experiencing. While the temperature trend is a little more uncertain, slightly above normal temperatures will still be favored the rest of the month owing to the negative PNA and weak/no teleconnections from other aspects of the global circulation. 

Looking forwards towards the fall and winter, strong El Niño will shift anomalies to favor below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. Barring strong opposition to this pattern from other global scale oscillations, there is a good chance of a pattern change for North and Central Texas by late fall or early winter. 

ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation)

El Niño remains across the Equatorial Pacific with no signs of reversing any time soon. Current observations show building above normal temperatures from the International Date Line eastward towards South America. The current strength of this El Niño (dictated by Niño 3.4 anomalies) continues to increase with anomalies just warmer than 1.5 degrees Celsius (strong El Niño). Much warmer relative sea surface temperatures have been noted closer to the South American coast with Niño 1+2 anomalies exceeding 3 degrees Celsius. 

The ENSO forecast remains relatively unchanged from last month’s with El Niño all but certain through spring of 2027. Equatorial Pacific warming is expected to continue into the winter with a very strong El Niño forecast for the fall and winter months. Once we get to spring of 2027, the magnitude of El Niño becomes more uncertain. Nonetheless, El Niño will likely persist into the summer of next year at least.

Even in strong El Niño years, temperature anomalies don’t show a strong correlation to the ENSO phase in North and Central Texas until the fall months. The September-October-November (SON) and OND 3-month periods will have a slight preference (50-60% of El Niño events) to be 1-2°F cooler than average. The signal for below normal temperatures becomes stronger once we enter the winter months, with the NDJ 3-month period exhibiting a more robust chance (70-80% of El Niño events) of being 1-3°F cooler than average.  

The current and forecast ENSO phase will continue to strongly favor below normal precipitation the rest of the summer and potentially into the first part of the fall. Moving into the late fall and early winter, strong El Niño will have a slight preference for above normal precipitation. The occurrence of this has only been observed in roughly half of all El Niño events since 1950, which suggests that true precipitation anomalies will be more influenced by other global scale oscillations.

MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation)

There is some uncertainty with how the MJO will evolve over the next month. Some deterministic models suggest a transition to a Phase 5 or 6 MJO while other guidance keeps the MJO near neutral. Regardless of which solution is more correct, the potential phases and magnitude of the MJO makes it unlikely to result in teleconnections that can be felt here across North and Central Texas. Thus, it seems at this time that the MJO will not contribute to potential temperature or precipitation anomalies across the region for the month of August.

NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation)

The NAO is currently in a negative phase with ridging and high height anomalies noted across much of Greenland and the North Atlantic. During winter months this pattern favors colder than normal and wetter than normal conditions across the eastern United States. During the summer however, this signal is largely confined to eastern Canada and the Northeast. As such, the NAO is not expected to impact weather here in North and Central Texas for the rest of the summer.

PNA (Pacific-North American Pattern)

A near-neutral PNA will potentially become positive through the middle of August. This time of year, a positive PNA will favor ridging over the western CONUS and troughing over the Great Lakes and Northeast. While these teleconnections tend to be north and west of Texas, there may still be a slight preference for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.

AO (Arctic Oscillation)

Model guidance continues to show strong preference for a near-neutral AO the next few weeks. As such, the AO is not expected to induce any temperature or precipitation anomalies for us here in North and Central Texas through the month of August.