Extended Range Weather Pattern Discussion

Updated: July 8, 2026

North and Central Texas Long Term Trends

Considering all aspects of the global circulation at play this month, slightly above normal temperatures and slightly below normal precipitation is the most likely scenario for those of us in North and Central Texas for the month of July. The potential temperature anomalies will primarily be driven by the neutral/weak phase 1 (Madden-Julian Oscillation) MJO and increasingly positive Pacific North American pattern (PNA) which favors ridging and building heat out west. There is greater confidence in increasing chances for below normal precipitation as the strengthening El Niño has a strong dry signal in the southern Great Plains heading into the latter part of the summer. A weakly positive PNA the first half of July would normally favor a cooler and stormier pattern across the eastern CONUS, but this will be offset by the slightly positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) that is possible during the same time frame.

Temperature trends become less certain the latter part of July into August as many global scale oscillations either trend near neutral, are uncertain, or don’t have a strong teleconnection in our part of the country. However as mentioned before, there will be an increasing preference for drier than normal conditions across North and Central Texas owing to El Niño barring a strong opposing signal in another aspect of the global circulation.

ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation)

The ENSO outlook has not changed from the prior discussion with El Niño ongoing and expected to last through the beginning of next year. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies have gradually increased over the course of this past month as well, with the eastern half of the Equatorial Pacific largely ranging from 1.0C to 1.5C. The sub-surface temperatures exhibit a much more impressive warm anomaly with water temperatures ranging 3C to 8C above normal.

The Climate Prediction Center is currently forecasting a strong  to very strong El Niño by the end of the year, with a near 90% chance of occurring. There is a 10% chance that the El Nino will be weak or moderate by the New Year. 

Temperature anomalies from El Niño are somewhat uncertain with not much of a predictive signal in the southern Great Plains. Generally speaking, El Niño has a slight preference for near-normal temperatures, but the weakness in this signal makes the true seasonal temperature anomalies more influenced by other global/synoptic scale patterns.

Precipitation anomalies are more predictable during ENSO years here in North and Central Texas with a strong preference (60-80% chance) for drier than normal conditions during the summer months (particularly the second half of the summer). Once we get into the Fall, there is somewhat of a preference (50-60% chance) to see above normal precipitation, especially in the October to December time-frame. This signal weakens going into the winter, again with other aspects of the global circulation dictating precipitation anomalies in our part of the country during this time. 

MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation)

After a neutral MJO phase for most of the latter half of June, a weak Phase 7 MJO has developed for the start of July. The general consensus amongst model guidance for the rest of the month is for a weak Phase 7/8 MJO through the first half of the month, and a near-neutral or weak Phase 1 MJO for the second half of the month. This evolution; however, is somewhat uncertain given moderate variability amongst model guidance at this time. Due to the weakness of the current and forecast MJO, typical Phase 7/8 teleconnections don’t appear likely at this time. Instead, long range guidance shows positive Chi anomalies (convergence aloft and synoptic scale subsidence) across much of Mexico and the Pacific waters west of northern Latin America. As such, this component of the global circulation will act to slightly prefer below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures for the southern Great Plains the rest of the month.

NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation)

NAO predictability remains relatively low through the month of July. While there is a weak signal amongst ensemble members that a weak positive phase will develop the first half of the month, this signal in the guidance gives way to much more uncertainty the second part of the month. Should the weak positive phase materialize, it will result in a slight preference for above normal temperatures across the eastern US with the greatest ridging and synoptic scale subsidence potentially shifting east of the Great Plains.

PNA (Pacific-North American Pattern)

Guidance has locked into a signal of a brief positive PNA phase the first half of July. This will result in a preference for ridging/heat out west and cooler than normal temperatures along with a stormier pattern across the eastern CONUS. Predictability of the PNA becomes much more uncertain the second half of July with no clear signal emerging from long-range guidance.

AO (Arctic Oscillation)

A near neutral AO will result in no meaningful alterations to weather patterns in our region. Even during stronger positive/negative phases of AO during the summer, the polar jet stream is almost always too far north to bring any meaningful impacts to North and Central Texas.