Watching Hurricane Erin; Heavy Rainfall Threat for Upper Midwest; Heatrisk for Mississippi Valley

Hurricane Erin continues to track westward with its outer bands bringing heavy rainfall and gusty winds for Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands. Life-threatening surf and rip currents are occurring and will spread across the Atlantic coasts this week. Meanwhile, heavy rainfall and possible flooding are in the forecast for upper Midwest through Monday. Heatrisk continues for the Mississippi Valley. Read More >

Overview:

Between the afternoon hours of Friday, Jan. 11, 2019, and the morning of Saturday the 12th, a somewhat-stronger-than-first-expected low pressure system passed through the Central Plains, bringing widespread snow totals of 4-8" to primarily the southeastern one-third of the NWS Hastings coverage area (see map and list of totals below).

Like many local snow events, but perhaps more so than usual, this one featured a very sharp divide between those places that received appreciable snowfall, and those that saw hardly anything. Roughly speaking, the true dividing line set up roughly along a line from York-Hastings-Beaver City. To the north of that line, most places saw hardly anything (including Grand Island and Kearney), while Hastings received only a light dusting. However, to the south of that line, snowfall totals quickly ramped up over just a 10-20 mile distance, with most places south of roughly a Geneva-Red Cloud-Phillipsburg KS line receiving at least 4-7", and isolated amounts to around 8". Fortunately, north winds were not overly-strong, with peak gusts only in the 25-30 MPH range, which along with the wet/heavy nature of the snow, kept heavy drifting to a relative minimum.

This was an interesting event from an NWS forecasting perspective, as unlike many heavier snow events that are "obvious" a week or more in advance, this one showed little sign of being an issue until about three days out. And then, once it finally became more obvious that measurable snow would occur, it first appeared that the highest snow totals would only reach the 2-5" range, and not the more widespread coverage of 5-8" that ultimately occurred. So why did this system come a bit "out of nowhere" and end up being stronger-than-expected? In short, what initially looked like two fairly weak, disorganized upper level disturbances ended up "phasing" into one noticeably stronger system as time went by.

NWS Radar loop from 5:45 AM on Jan. 11th - 2 PM on Jan. 12th.
The NWS Hastings coverage area is within the orange
outlined area labeled "GID" . Interstates are in red.

Snow
Photos

Snow

2-Day Storm Totals (click image to enlarge)

4WNW Plainville, KS	8.5"
Beloit, KS	8.0"
5 S Randall, KS	8.0"
5 N Webster State Park, KS	8.0"
Carleton, NE	7.8"
Hebron, NE	7.3"
3 WNW Oak, NE	7.0"
6 SSE Davenport, NE	7.0"
4 E Ohiowa, NE	7.0"
Hubbell, NE	7.0"
Natoma, KS	6.5"
Burr Oak, KS	6.2"
Lebanon, KS	6.2"
5 WSW Agra, KS	6.1"
Nelson, NE	6.0"

Osborne, KS	6.0"
Jewell, KS	6.0"
Smith Center, KS	6.0"
3 ENE Webber, KS	5.4"
10 SSW Beloit, KS	5.1"
2 E Franklin, NE	5.0"
Logan, KS	5.0"
Ionia, KS	4.4"
Franklin, NE	4.0"
Geneva, NE	4.0"
6 SW Alma, NE	3.3"
4 WSW Blue Hill, NE	2.7"
Clay Center, NE	2.7"
1 ENE McCool Junction, NE	1.5"
3 N York, NE	0.5"

Photos


Carleton, NE photo by Bill McPherson	Deshler, NE photo by Adam Holle	4 S Hebron, NE photo by Christy Farnstro	Nelson, NE photo by Peter Spirk


Superior, NE photo by Rick Disney	Beloit, KS photo by Joe Sporleder	Oak, NE photo by Ty Behmerwohld	Near Blue Hill, NE photo by Nebraska State Patrol

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Watching Hurricane Erin; Heavy Rainfall Threat for Upper Midwest; Heatrisk for Mississippi Valley

Jan. 11-12, 2019: 4-8" of Heavy, Wet Snow Targets Southeast Counties (especially north central KS, Hebron areas)