Lower Colorado River (COZ203) - Fire Weather Forecast

COZ203-011300-
COZ203-011300-
Lower Colorado River-
250 PM MDT Wed May 31 2023

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Wrn Colorado and Ern Utah
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
250 PM MDT Wed May 31 2023

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have fired this afternoon and
are drifting into adjacent valleys. Dry sublayers will keep gusty
outflow winds the main concern though some brief, heavy rain is 
also possible. As an area of low pressure approaches from the 
southwest, moisture will start to increase heading into the 
weekend and with plenty of instability expected, afternoon and 
evening convection is expected through the weekend and beyond. The
increased moisture will increase chances for wetting rains each 
day.


...GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS...
...THE SMOKE DATA IS CALCULATED FROM AN AVERAGE AT 6000 FEET MSL...


.Tonight...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80%). Isolated showers and 
                    thunderstorms. 
Min temperature.....46-56 F near 6000 feet 
                    40-50 F near 8000 feet. 
Max humidity........55-65%. 
20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming 
                    downslope/downvalley 3 to 6 mph by sunset.
CWR.................10 percent. 
LAL.................2.
Haines Index........6 or high. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....West 10 to 15 mph decreasing to 5 to 10 mph 
                    after midnight. 
Mixing Height.......9500 ft AGL until 2000, then 1000 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....Southeast 5 to 10 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor. 

.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70%). Isolated showers and 
                    thunderstorms until 1200, then scattered 
                    showers and thunderstorms. 
Max temperature.....65-75 F near 6000 feet 
                    56-66 F near 8000 feet. 
Min humidity........23-33%. 
20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley winds 4 to 8 mph. Localized 
                    gusts up to 25 mph in the afternoon. 
CWR.................40 percent. 
LAL.................2 until 1200, then 4.
Haines Index........3 or very low. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....Southwest 5 to 10 mph. 
Mixing Height.......1500 ft AGL until 0900, then 8500 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....Southwest 5 to 10 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900. Good after 1200. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80%). Scattered showers and 
                    thunderstorms until 2400, isolated showers and 
                    thunderstorms after 2400. 
Min temperature.....44-54 F near 6000 feet 
                    37-47 F near 8000 feet. 
Max humidity........65-80%. 
20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming 
                    downslope/downvalley 3 to 6 mph by sunset.
CWR.................20 percent. 
LAL.................4 until 2400, then 2.
Haines Index........3 or very low. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....Northwest 15 to 20 mph. 
Mixing Height.......5500 ft AGL until 2000, then 1000 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....Southeast 5 to 10 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor. 

.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80%). Scattered showers and 
                    isolated thunderstorms until 1200, then 
                    numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. 
Max temperature.....59-69 F near 6000 feet 
                    50-60 F near 8000 feet. 
Min humidity........39-49%. 
20-foot winds.......Downslope/downvalley 3 to 6 mph becoming 
                    upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph by 1100.
CWR.................60 percent. 
LAL.................2 until 1200, then 4.
Haines Index........2 or very low. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....Northwest 15 to 20 mph becoming west 10 to 15 
                    mph in the afternoon. 
Mixing Height.......5500 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....South 5 to 10 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor. 

.FORECAST FOR DAY 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 44-54. Highs 65-75. Winds less than 15 mph. 
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 45-55. Highs 70-80. Winds less than 15 mph. 
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Lows 47-57. Highs 74-84. Winds less than 15 mph. 
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms. Lows 49-59. Highs 73-83. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Lows 47-57. Highs 71-81.