COZ203-171100-
COZ203-171100-
Lower Colorado River-
1248 PM MDT Sat May 16 2026

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Wrn Colorado and Ern Utah
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1248 PM MDT Sat May 16 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS FOR COLORADO FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 203 BELOW 8000 FEET, 205 BELOW 8000 FEET, 290 AND
292, AS WELL AS UTAH FIRE WEATHER ZONE 490... 

.DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
afternoon, favoring areas north of I-70. Dry surface levels and
wind gusts of 30-40 mph will lead to critical fire weather 
conditions for central-eastern Utah and central-western Colorado,
where Red Flag Warnings are in effect through 8PM. Showers and 
storms could create strong outflow winds with gusts in excess of 
45 mph. Increased moisture, widespread precipitation, and cooler
temperatures arrive starting tomorrow.

...GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS...
...THE SMOKE DATA IS CALCULATED FROM AN AVERAGE AT 6000 FEET MSL...


...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (50-60%). Scattered showers and 
                    isolated thunderstorms. 
Chc of lightning....20 percent. 
Min temperature.....42-52 F near 6000 feet 
                    36-46 F near 8000 feet. 
Max humidity........70-85%. 
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 35 
                    mph in the evening becoming 
                    downslope/downvalley 3 to 6 mph by sunset. 
CWR.................30 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....Southwest 25 to 35 mph. 
Mixing Height.......12000 ft AGL until 2000, then 1000 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....West 10 to 15 mph until 2400, then north 5 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Very good until 2100, then poor. 

.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (50-60%) until 1200, then mostly 
                    cloudy (70-80%). Scattered showers and isolated 
                    thunderstorms until 1200, then numerous showers 
                    and scattered thunderstorms. 
Chc of lightning....50 percent. 
Max temperature.....63-73 F near 6000 feet 
                    53-63 F near 8000 feet. 
Min humidity........24-34%. 
20-foot winds.......Downslope/downvalley 3 to 6 mph becoming 
                    upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph by 1100.
CWR.................50 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....Southwest 25 to 35 mph increasing to 35 to 45 
                    mph in the afternoon. 
Mixing Height.......1500 ft AGL until 0900. 9000 ft AGL after 1000. 
Transport Winds.....South 5 to 10 mph until 1200, then southwest 15 
                    to 20 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900. Very good after 1200. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80%). Showers until 2400. 
                    Isolated thunderstorms. Scattered showers after 
                    2400. 
Chc of lightning....20 percent. 
Min temperature.....37-47 F near 6000 feet 
                    31-41 F near 8000 feet. 
Max humidity........75-90%. 
20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming 
                    downslope/downvalley 3 to 6 mph by sunset.
CWR.................70 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....Southwest 35 to 45 mph. 
Mixing Height.......6000 ft AGL until 1900, then 2000 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....North 5 to 10 mph until 2400, then southeast. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor. 

.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80%). Isolated thunderstorms 
                    until 1200. Showers. Scattered thunderstorms 
                    after 1200. 
Chc of lightning....50 percent. 
Max temperature.....47-57 F near 6000 feet 
                    37-47 F near 8000 feet. 
Min humidity........41-51%. 
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph in the morning 
                    becoming upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph by 1100. 
                    Localized gusts up to 35 mph. 
CWR.................90 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....Southwest 25 to 35 mph decreasing to 15 to 20 
                    mph in the afternoon. 
Mixing Height.......6000 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....Southwest 10 to 15 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900, then fair. 

.FORECAST FOR DAY 3 THROUGH 7...
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Lows 30-40. Highs 55-65. Winds less than 15 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 31-41. Highs 62-72. Winds less
than 15 mph. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 36-46. Highs 66-76. Winds less
than 15 mph. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 37-47. Highs 71-81. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 42-52. Highs 75-85.