Southwest Colorado Lower Forecast Area (COZ207) - Fire Weather Forecast

COZ207-221245-
COZ207-221245-
Southwest Colorado Lower Forecast Area-
238 PM MDT Wed May 21 2025

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Wrn Colorado and Ern Utah
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
238 PM MDT Wed May 21 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM MDT THURSDAY
FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS FOR UTAH FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 490... 
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS FOR UTAH FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 490 AND 491... 

.DISCUSSION...Critical fire weather conditions are expected to be
more localized today. Hot, dry and windy conditions increase and 
expand in coverage Thursday through the weekend. As a result,
issued a Red Flag Warning for east-central Utah for Thursday and 
a Fire Weather Watch for both east-central and southeast Utah 
Friday as fuels are critical. Wetting rains are not expected in 
the near term. Showers and thunderstorms are possible late this 
weekend into early next week but confidence in coverage is low.

...GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS...
...THE SMOKE DATA IS CALCULATED FROM AN AVERAGE AT 6000 FEET MSL...


.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30%). 
Chc of lightning....0 percent. 
Min temperature.....42-52 F. 
Max humidity........29-39%. 
20-foot winds.......Downslope/downvalley winds 3 to 6 mph. 
                    Localized gusts up to 25 mph. 
CWR.................0 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....West 20 to 25 mph. 
Mixing Height.......11000 ft AGL until 2000, then 1500 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....North 5 to 10 mph until 2400, then east. 
Smoke dispersal.....Good until 2100, then poor. 

.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (10-20%). 
Chc of lightning....0 percent. 
Max temperature.....77-87 F. 
Min humidity........6-11%. 
20-foot winds.......Downslope/downvalley winds 4 to 8 mph becoming 
                    southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph in 
                    the afternoon. 
CWR.................0 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....Southwest 15 to 20 mph. 
Mixing Height.......2500 ft AGL until 1000. 13500 ft AGL after 
                    1100. 
Transport Winds.....Southeast 5 to 10 mph until 1200, then 
                    southwest. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900. Excellent after 1200. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30%). 
Chc of lightning....0 percent. 
Min temperature.....45-55 F. 
Max humidity........24-34%. 
20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming 
                    downslope/downvalley 3 to 6 mph by sunset.
CWR.................0 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....Southwest 20 to 25 mph. 
Mixing Height.......12500 ft AGL until 2000, then 1500 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....Southwest 5 to 10 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Very good until 2100, then poor. 

.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (10-20%). 
Chc of lightning....0 percent. 
Max temperature.....74-84 F. 
Min humidity........4-9%. 
20-foot winds.......Downslope/downvalley winds 4 to 8 mph becoming 
                    southwest 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. 
                    Localized gusts up to 30 mph. 
CWR.................0 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....Southwest 20 to 30 mph decreasing to 20 to 25 
                    mph in the afternoon. 
Mixing Height.......12500 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....South 5 to 10 mph until 1200, then southwest 15 
                    to 20 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900. Excellent after 1200. 

.FORECAST FOR DAY 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 43-53. Highs 75-85. Southwest
winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to  30 mph. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 41-51. Highs 73-83. Winds less than
15 mph. 
.MEMORIAL DAY...Mostly clear. Isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 41-51. Highs 75-85. Winds less than 15 mph. 
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 44-54. Highs 78-88. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 45-55. Highs 76-86.