COZ207-171100-
COZ207-171100-
Southwest Colorado Lower Forecast Area-
1250 PM MDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Wrn Colorado and Ern Utah
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1250 PM MDT Wed Sep 16 2026

.DISCUSSION...
Sub-tropical moisture continues to propagate through the area
which is feeding shower and thunderstorm activity through the end
of the week. These storms bring a threat of heavy rainfall and
potential for excess runoff, especially over burn scars.
Because widespread wetting rainfall is expected over the next
several days, the threat of critical fire weather conditions is
eliminated for the time being. 


...GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS...
...THE SMOKE DATA IS CALCULATED FROM AN AVERAGE AT 6000 FEET MSL...


.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (80-90%). Scattered showers until 2400. 
                    Scattered thunderstorms. Showers after 2400. 
Chc of lightning....50 percent. 
Min temperature.....51-61 F. 
Max humidity........88-100%. 
20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming 
                    downslope/downvalley 3 to 6 mph by sunset.
CWR.................100 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....Northeast 5 to 10 mph increasing to southeast 
                    15 to 20 mph after midnight. 
Mixing Height.......3500 ft AGL until 1900, then 1500 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....Southeast 5 to 10 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor. 

.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80%). Showers and isolated 
                    thunderstorms until 1200, then numerous showers 
                    and scattered thunderstorms. 
Chc of lightning....50 percent. 
Max temperature.....67-77 F. 
Min humidity........53-63%. 
20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley winds 4 to 8 mph. Localized 
                    gusts up to 30 mph decreasing to 20 mph in the 
                    afternoon. 
CWR.................90 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....South 25 to 35 mph becoming southwest 20 to 25 
                    mph in the afternoon. 
Mixing Height.......3500 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....South 5 to 10 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor. 

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80%). Scattered showers and 
                    thunderstorms until 2400, then numerous showers 
                    and isolated thunderstorms. 
Chc of lightning....50 percent. 
Min temperature.....49-59 F. 
Max humidity........86-100%. 
20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming 
                    downslope/downvalley 3 to 6 mph by sunset.
CWR.................60 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....Southwest 15 to 20 mph. 
Mixing Height.......2500 ft AGL until 2000, then 1000 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....Southeast 5 to 10 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor. 

.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70%) until 1200, then partly 
                    cloudy (50-60%). Isolated thunderstorms until 
                    1200. Scattered showers. Scattered 
                    thunderstorms after 1200. 
Chc of lightning....50 percent. 
Max temperature.....71-81 F. 
Min humidity........41-51%. 
20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley winds 4 to 8 mph. Localized 
                    gusts up to 25 mph. 
CWR.................30 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....Southwest 20 to 25 mph. 
Mixing Height.......2000 ft AGL until 1100, then 7000 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....South 5 to 10 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900. Fair after 1200. 

.FORECAST FOR DAY 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Lows 46-56. Highs 71-81. Winds less than 15 mph. 
.SUNDAY...Clear. Lows 43-53. Highs 71-81. Winds less than 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows 42-52. Highs 72-82. Winds less than
15 mph. 
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 43-53. Highs 70-80. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Lows 43-53. Highs 69-79.