COZ207-172315-
COZ207-172315-
Southwest Colorado Lower Forecast Area-
112 AM MDT Sun May 17 2026

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Wrn Colorado and Ern Utah
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
112 AM MDT Sun May 17 2026

.DISCUSSION...Critical fire weather conditions will be replaced
by a wetter regime over the next few days as a stronger system
works through the Rockies. One concern will continue to be 
strong outflow winds from virga/showers and the threat of these
winds occurring with the threat of lightning and new fire starts.
Otherwise areas outside of the 4 Corners region have a high 
probability of wetting precipitation over the next few days.
Unfortunately in the 4 Corners region little precipitation is 
expected with this storm. 

...GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS...
...THE SMOKE DATA IS CALCULATED FROM AN AVERAGE AT 6000 FEET MSL...


.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50%). Isolated showers and 
                    thunderstorms. 
Chc of lightning....10 percent. 
Max temperature.....70-80 F. 
Min humidity........9-14%. 
20-foot winds.......Downslope/downvalley winds 4 to 8 mph becoming 
                    southwest 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 45 mph in 
                    the afternoon. 
CWR.................10 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....Southwest 20 to 30 mph. 
Mixing Height.......500 ft AGL until 0800. 12500 ft AGL after 0900. 
Transport Winds.....Southwest 10 to 15 mph until 1200, then 20 to 
                    30 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900. Excellent after 1200. 

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80%). Scattered showers and 
                    isolated thunderstorms. 
Chc of lightning....20 percent. 
Min temperature.....37-47 F. 
Max humidity........63-78%. 
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 45 
                    mph. 
CWR.................40 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....Southwest 25 to 35 mph increasing to 30 to 40 
                    mph after midnight. 
Mixing Height.......10500 ft AGL until 2000, then 2000 ft AGL until 
                    0400, then 4000 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 20 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent until 2100, then poor until 0300, 
                    then fair. 

.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70%) until 1200, then partly 
                    cloudy (40-50%). Scattered showers and isolated 
                    thunderstorms until 1200. 
Chc of lightning....20 percent. 
Max temperature.....54-64 F. 
Min humidity........21-31%. 
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 
                    mph becoming west 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 35 
                    mph in the afternoon. 
CWR.................60 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....Southwest 35 to 45 mph becoming west 20 to 25 
                    mph in the afternoon. 
Mixing Height.......9000 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 20 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Good until 1200, then very good. 

.FORECAST FOR DAY 3 THROUGH 7...
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 30-40. Highs 63-73. Winds less than
15 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 33-43. Highs 69-79. Winds less
than 15 mph. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 36-46. Highs 71-81. Winds less
than 15 mph. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 37-47. Highs 74-84. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 40-50. Highs 77-87.