Paradox Valley Forecast Area (COZ290) - Fire Weather Forecast

COZ290-221300-
COZ290-221300-
Paradox Valley Forecast Area-
246 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Wrn Colorado and Ern Utah
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
246 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2025

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to form on terrain 
through Thursday. Wetting rains will be possible with many storms.
Localized critical fire weather is possible for warmer and drier 
low elevations and becomes more widespread by week's end as we 
return to a hotter and drier regime.

...GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS...
...THE SMOKE DATA IS CALCULATED FROM AN AVERAGE AT 6000 FEET MSL...


.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50%). Isolated showers and 
                    thunderstorms until 2400. 
Chc of lightning....20 percent. 
Min temperature.....56-66 F near 6000 feet 
                    50-60 F near 8000 feet. 
Max humidity........46-56% near 6000 feet 
                    61-76% near 8000 feet. 
20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming 
                    downslope/downvalley 3 to 6 mph by sunset.
CWR.................10 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....South 15 to 20 mph. 
Mixing Height.......10500 ft AGL until 2000, then 2000 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....West 5 to 10 mph until 2400, then south. 
Smoke dispersal.....Good until 2100, then poor. 

.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Near 6000 feet, mostly sunny (20-30%) until 
                    1200, then partly cloudy (40-50%). Near 8000 
                    feet, partly cloudy (30-40%), isolated showers 
                    and thunderstorms until 1200. Scattered showers 
                    and thunderstorms after 1200. 
Chc of lightning....20 percent. 
Max temperature.....80-90 F near 6000 feet 
                    68-78 F near 8000 feet. 
Min humidity........13-23% near 6000 feet 
                    21-31% near 8000 feet. 
20-foot winds.......Downslope/downvalley 3 to 6 mph becoming 
                    upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph by 1100.
CWR.................10 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....Southwest 20 to 25 mph decreasing to 15 to 20 
                    mph in the afternoon. 
Mixing Height.......2000 ft AGL until 0900, then 10500 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....Southwest 5 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900. Very good after 1200. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50%). Isolated showers and 
                    thunderstorms until 2400. 
Chc of lightning....10 percent. 
Min temperature.....56-66 F near 6000 feet 
                    49-59 F near 8000 feet. 
Max humidity........36-46% near 6000 feet 
                    53-63% near 8000 feet. 
20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming 
                    downslope/downvalley 3 to 6 mph by sunset.
CWR.................0 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....Southwest 10 to 15 mph. 
Mixing Height.......9500 ft AGL until 2000, then 2000 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....West 5 to 10 mph until 2400, then south. 
Smoke dispersal.....Fair until 2100, then poor. 

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50%). Near 8000 feet, 
                    isolated showers and thunderstorms until 1200. 
                    Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 1200. 
Chc of lightning....20 percent. 
Max temperature.....80-90 F near 6000 feet 
                    68-78 F near 8000 feet. 
Min humidity........11-16% near 6000 feet 
                    15-25% near 8000 feet. 
20-foot winds.......Downslope/downvalley 3 to 6 mph becoming 
                    upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph by 1100.
CWR.................10 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....Southwest 10 to 15 mph. 
Mixing Height.......3000 ft AGL until 1000, then 12500 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....Southwest 5 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900. Very good after 1200. 

.FORECAST FOR DAY 3 THROUGH 7...
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
near 6000 feet and scattered showers and thunderstorms near
8000 feet. Lows 58-68. Highs 84-94. Winds less than 15 mph. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Isolated showers near 8000 feet. Lows
55-65. Highs 85-95. Winds less than 15 mph. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Isolated showers and thunderstorms near
8000 feet. Lows 56-66. Highs 86-96. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph
with gusts to  30 mph. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Isolated showers and thunderstorms near
8000 feet. Lows 56-66. Highs 88-98. 
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms near
6000 feet and scattered showers and thunderstorms near 8000 feet.
Lows 59-69. Highs 89-99.