Southwest Colorado Upper East Forecast Area (COZ295) - Fire Weather Forecast

COZ295-161245-
COZ295-161245-
Southwest Colorado Upper East Forecast Area-
236 PM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Wrn Colorado and Ern Utah
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
236 PM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.DISCUSSION... Moisture is gradually moving back into our area. 
Today this moisture is resulting in isolated dry thunderstorms. 
As a result, the main concerns are strong wind gusts around storms
and lightning. As atmospheric moisture increases over the coming 
days, shower and thunderstorm coverage should increase, and 
precipitation will have a greater chance of making it to the 
ground. Although moisture and minimum relative humidity are  
expected to increase, this change will be gradual and localized 
Red Flag conditions are possible where it is dry due to gusts 
above critical fire weather thresholds in local areas. 

...GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS...
...THE SMOKE DATA IS CALCULATED FROM AN AVERAGE AT 6000 FEET MSL...


.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (50-60%). Isolated showers and 
                    dry thunderstorms until 2400. Areas of smoke. 
Chc of lightning....20 percent. 
Min temperature.....48-58 F. 
Max humidity........57-67%. 
20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming 
                    downslope/downvalley 3 to 6 mph by sunset.
CWR.................10 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....Northwest 10 to 15 mph. 
Mixing Height.......6000 ft AGL until 2000, then 2000 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....North 5 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor. 

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50%). Areas of smoke. 
                    Isolated showers and thunderstorms until 
                    1200, numerous showers and scattered dry 
                    thunderstorms after 1200. 
Chc of lightning....50 percent. 
Max temperature.....78-88 F. 
Min humidity........17-27%. 
20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley winds 4 to 8 mph. Localized 
                    gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon. 
CWR.................40 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....North 5 to 10 mph shifting to the west 10 to 15 
                    mph in the afternoon. 
Mixing Height.......2500 ft AGL until 0900. 10000 ft AGL after 
                    1100. 
Transport Winds.....Northwest 5 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900. Good after 1200. 

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70%) until 2400, then partly 
                    cloudy (50-60%). Areas of smoke. Scattered 
                    showers and thunderstorms until 2400, isolated 
                    showers after 2400. 
Chc of lightning....40 percent. 
Min temperature.....49-59 F. 
Max humidity........61-76%. 
20-foot winds.......Downslope/downvalley winds 3 to 6 mph. 
                    Localized gusts up to 20 mph in the evening. 
CWR.................20 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....Northwest 15 to 20 mph becoming north 5 to 10 
                    mph after midnight. 
Mixing Height.......6500 ft AGL until 2000, then 2000 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....Northeast 5 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor. 

.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (50-60%) until 1200, then mostly 
                    cloudy (70-80%). Isolated showers and 
                    thunderstorms until 1200, then showers with 
                    numerous thunderstorms. 
Chc of lightning....70 percent. 
Max temperature.....75-85 F. 
Min humidity........24-34%. 
20-foot winds.......Downslope/downvalley 3 to 6 mph becoming 
                    upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph by 1100.
CWR.................40 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....Southeast 5 to 10 mph shifting to the southwest 
                    in the afternoon. 
Mixing Height.......3000 ft AGL until 1000, then 7500 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....East 5 mph until 1200, then west. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900. Good after 1200. 

.FORECAST FOR DAY 3 THROUGH 7...
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and thunderstorms. Lows
45-55. Highs 74-84. Winds less than 15 mph. 
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 47-57. Highs 74-84. Winds less than 15 mph. 
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 46-56. Highs 74-84. Winds less than 15 mph. 
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 46-56. Highs 76-86. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Lows
45-55. Highs 78-88.