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Excessive Rainfall and Flooding Threat in the South; Hazardous Heat in the Western U.S. Expanding to the Northern Plains

Multiple rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms across portions of the Texas and Louisiana Coast will likely lead to flash, urban, small stream and river flooding. An additional heavy rainfall threat will exist from the Lower Mississippi Valley through the southern Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, a dangerous heat threat will continue across the Western U.S. and northern Plains through Thursday. Read More >

 

On Monday, April 8, 2024 the totality of a solar eclipse will cross the United States from Texas to Indiana to Maine. 

 

Sky Forecast Sources:

  • Graphical Forecast -- A good place to check our sky cover forecast for the region
  • Point Forecast -- Forecast for Patoka Lake in southern Indiana, in the path of totality. Forecasts for other locations can be acquired by clicking on the map on the right side of this forecast page or by clicking on the map on our main web page.
  • User Defined Area Forecast  -- General forecast for an area defined by the user

 

The path of the eclipse's totality will run from southwest to northeast across Indiana. It will begin in Mount Vernon at 12:45pm CDT and end in Richmond at 4:24pm EDT. In the NWS Louisville area of responsibility, totality will begin in Jasper at 3:03pm EDT and end in Bryantsburg (north of Madison) at 3:09pm EDT.

 

Interactive Map
NASA general eclipse information

National Cloud Climatology
Eclipse eye safety

eclipse route through Indiana

Source: https://www.in.gov/dnr/places-to-go/events/2024-solar-eclipse/

 

Climatologically speaking, on average about 60-70% of the sky is covered by cloud in southern Indiana in April:

Climatological cloudiness

Source: https://eclipsophile.com/2024tse/. Note: The date on the graphic above should say April 8, 2024.

 

38% of 3pm sky observations in April have been overcast in Louisville. (Louisville is used here because it has the most complete and thorough record of sky observations near southern Indiana.)

3pm cloud climatology

 

All Years Cloud Climatology El Niño years cloud climatology


Historical probabilities of severe weather:
 

Any Severe Hail Wind Tornado
Any severe probabilities Hail probabilities Severe wind probabilities Tornado probabilities
       


Source: Storm Prediction Center


Past instances of severe or unusual weather on April 8 since 1950 in or near the path of totality in southern Indiana (in NWS Louisville CWA):

April 8, 1995: Dime and quarter sized hail in Floyd County (9pm and 11:19pm EDT)
April 8, 1998: Dime sized hail in Orange County (8-8:30am EDT)
April 8, 2015: Dime sized hail in Crawford County (3:50pm EDT)
April 8, 2016: Frost/freeze in Jefferson County 
April 8, 2020: 62mph thunderstorm winds in Dubois County, 63mph winds in Orange County and Crawford County, 76mph winds in Harrison County, 60 mph winds in Washington County, 60mph winds in Floyd County, 90mph winds in Clark County (these storms struck between 9:42pm and 10:51pm)

Start of partial eclipse: 1:47pm EDT
Start of total eclipse: 3:03pm EDT
Maximum eclipse: 3:05pm EDT
End of total eclipse: 3:07pm EDT
End of partial eclipse: 4:21pm EDT

 

Climatological Information for Jasper on April 8:

Normal high: 64°
Normal low: 38°
Record high: 85° in 2001
Record cold high: 33° in 2007
Record low: 20° in 1972
Record warm low: 68° in 2001
Wettest: 1.81" in 2015
Snowiest: A trace in 1956
% of years with measurable rain: 39% (about two out of five)

(Data collected at the Southern Indiana Purdue Agriculture Center, period of record 1955 to present)

Below: click on image to see a larger version

Jasper April 8 max temp

Jasper April 8 min tmep

Jasper April 8 precip

 

Weather in Jasper on April 8 over the past 20 years:

T = Trace M = Missing

Start of partial eclipse: 1:49pm EDT
Maximum eclipse (99.25%): 3:07pm EDT
End of partial eclipse: 4:22pm EDT

 

Climatological Information for Louisville on April 8:

Normal high: 67°
Normal low: 46°
Record high: 85° in 2020 and 2011
Record cold high: 34° in 1916
Record low: 24° in 1972
Record warm low: 70° in 1922
Wettest: 2.40" in 1942
Snowiest: 3.2" in 1917
Deepest Snow Depth: 1" in 1982 and 1917
​% of years with rain: 45%

3pm Normals:
Temperature: 65°
Dew Point: 41°
% clear skies: 10%
% a few clouds: 11%
% partly cloudy: 15%
% mostly cloudy: 27%
% cloudy: 37%
Wind speed: 12 mph
Wind direction: southwest

Below: click on image to see a larger version

Louisville April 8 max temp

Louisville April 8 min tmep

Louisville April 8 precip

Louisville April 8 snow

 

Weather in Louisville on April 8 over the past 20 years:

Louisville weather on April 8 since 2004

T = Trace

Start of partial eclipse: 1:50pm EDT
Maximum eclipse (99.84%): 3:08pm EDT
End of partial eclipse: 4:23pm EDT

 

Climatological Information for Madison on April 8:

Normal high: 66°
Normal low: 40°
Record high: 85° in 1959
Record cold high: 26° in 2007
Record low: 21° in 1972 and 1936
Record warm low: 67° in 1959
Wettest: 1.69" in 1948
Snowiest: 2" in 1917
Deepest Snow Depth: 2" in 1917
​% of years with measurable rain: 40% (two out of five)

(Data taken at Madison Sewage Plant 1893-2011)

Below: click on image to see a larger version

Madison max temp

Madison April 8 min temp

Madison April 8 precip

Madison April 8 snow