2016-2017 Winter Outlook

The 2016-2017 winter outlook has been released. This highlights how our temperature and precipitation will compare to normal for the months of December, January, and February.

These outlooks examine the chances that the season will see above, near, or below normal temperature and precipitation. As you can see above, the most likely outcome is that much of the state will see below normal temperatures and wetter than normal conditions ("wetter" includes rain and snow amounts). This is true in the areas that are highlighted in blue and green, respectively.

Remember, the colors on the map show only the most likely category. For every point on either map, there is some chance that there will be a below, near, or above-average outcome. This is highlighted in the image below. The equal chances portion of the map show an area where there is no tilt in the odds towards either above, near, or below average temperature or precipitation.

These seasonal outlooks are based in part on the phase of something called the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. You've probably heard of the two phases of ENSO, El Niño and La Niña. This winter, we are expected to enter a weak La Niña phase. During La Niña winters, we often see greater than average snowfall in the Great Lakes region, and this is reflected in the maps above.

Herzog