Spring Flood Outlook -Updated March 14, 2024

Flood Outlook as of March 14, 2024

River flooding in Wisconsin typically occurs in March and April when there is a rapid snowmelt and/or heavy rain. But, it can happen any time of year when there is heavy rain.

Seasonal Flood Probability Graphics 

Seasonal Flood Outlook Text and Probability Table 

Current River Levels and Short Term Forecast River Levels - This website will be upgraded on March 27, 2024. Preview the new page here.

Flood Risk Factors

Current Conditions (images auto update and conditions may differ from when the spring flood outlook was issued)

Snow Water Equivalent	Streamflow Compared to Normal	Soil Moisture Percentile
30 Day Precipitation Deficits	6 Month Precipitation Deficits	U.S. Drought Monitor

Flood Risk Factors (as of 3/14/24)

Snow Pack

There is no snow on the ground. This reduces the flood risk.

Streamflow and River Levels

Precipitation this winter was close to average, but below average for the month of February. Streamflow across southern Wisconsin is close to normal, in the 25-75th percentile averaged over the past 28 days.

Soil Moisture

Soil moisture is  below average across southwest and south-central Wisconsin and close to average across the remainder of southern Wisconsin. Precipitation deficits since June 1 are 6 to 12 inches in those areas where the U.S. Drought Monitor indicates Moderate to Severe Drought.  As a result, there is room for the ground to absorb water from melting snow and spring rain.

Frost Depth

There is no frost in the ground at this time. This helps to decrease the flood risk somewhat because the ground can absorb melting snow and spring rain. However, there will still be some runoff because the vegetation is still dormant.

Rivers and Ice

Rivers are mainly ice free, so the ice jam risk is low.

Looking Ahead (images auto update)

7 Day Precipitation Forecast

Extended outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center:

How To Prepare Safety

Preparedness/Early Actions:

• Get a NOAA Weather Radio to be alerted to flash flood warnings and river flood warnings
• Monitor weather forecasts for heavy rain potential
• Have a communications plan for your family and a place to meet in higher ground.
• Monitor river levels and forecasted river levels online: (National Site, USGS, MKX)
• Know a safe way to exit your home and neighborhood and avoid any roads susceptible to flooding
• Prepare your home:
  • Consider flood insurance, especially if you are in a flood prone area - (may require 30 day notice)
  • Make sure your sump pump is working and consider a backup.
  • Have a professional install check-values to prevent floodwaters from backing up into the drains of your home
  • Keep important documents in a waterproof, elevated container, not in the basement.
  • Remove snow from roof, downspout area, and away from base of home
  • Finish any outdoor projects that may be affected by heavy rain or flood waters
• Prepare (Flood Ready, Flood Safety) 

How To Stay Safe During a Flood:

• Heed evacuation orders and evacuate your home if it is at risk
• Turn Around, Don't Drown - never drive through flooded roads
  • You do not know how deep the water is or if the road has been washed out
  • You may damage your vehicle
  • You put yourself and first responders at risk

Briefing Slides

Feb 15, 2024   Slides

Feb. 29, 2024  Slides   Recording

Mar. 14, 2024  Slides

If you have any questions or comments about this spring flood outlook or the new river forecast website please contact:

Sarah Marquardt

Senior Service Hydrologist

National Weather Service Milwaukee

sarah.marquardt@noaa.gov