Heavy Rain in the Appalachians and Central Gulf Coast; Heat Continues in the West; Monitoring the Tropics

Heavy to excessive rainfall over the southern Appalachians and portions of the central Gulf Coast may bring areas of flooding today. Hot temperatures are in place through today across much of the western U.S. and New England. Tropical Storm Erin is forecast to become a Major Hurricane this weekend as it moves across the central Atlantic Ocean. Monitor future forecasts for any East Coast impacts. Read More >

Flood Outlook issued March 13, 2025 - Final Outlook

Key Points

The risk of spring flooding is below average across southern Wisconsin.
The spring flood risk is based on the following factors: Little snowpack, average streamflow values and average to below average soil moisture. In some areas the ground is still frozen which can result in increased runoff and flooding potential.
This flood risk pertains to the underlying risk for the mid March to the mid June time period as a whole. The risk may be higher with individual weather events. Flooding is still possible with heavy rain.
River flooding in southern Wisconsin typically occurs in March and April when there is a rapid snowmelt and/or heavy rain, but it can happen any time of the year.

What Has Changed

Frost depth has decreased and the top layer is thawing and the ground is completely thawed in some areas, reducing the flood risk.
River ice has melted, however many lakes remain frozen.

Briefing Slides

Flood Outlook Details
Flood Risk Factors
Temperature and Precipitation
How To Prepare & Safety
River Outlooks

Seasonal Flood Outlook Probability Table for River Forecast Locations

Seasonal Flood Outlook Graphics (select site on map, select 'Full Gauge Page' on top of hydrograph, then scroll down)

Hydrographs with the Official Forecast River Forecast. The forecasts use 48 hours of precipitation April 1 to Sep 30 and 24 hours of precipitation from Oct 1 to March 31.

Feb 13, 2025 Slides

Feb. 27, 2025 Slides

Mar. 13, 2025 Slides

If you have any questions or comments about this spring flood outlook or the new river forecast website please contact:

Sarah Marquardt

Senior Service Hydrologist

National Weather Service Milwaukee

sarah.marquardt@noaa.gov

Flood Risk Factors

Current Conditions (some images auto update and conditions may differ from when the spring flood outlook was issued)

Snow Water Equivalent (inches)	Ranked Snow Water Equivalent	Frost Depth (inches) 3/12/25

Soil Temperature 3/12/25	14 Day Streamflow Percentile	Soil Moisture Percentile - Climate Prediction Center

30 Day Precipitation Departure From Normal	4 Month Precipitation Departure from Normal	U.S. Drought Monitor

Flood Risk Factors (as of 3/13/25)

Snow Pack

There is little to no snow across southern Wisconsin, which is a large factor in reducing the flood risk.

Frost Depth

There is 0 to 32 inches of frost in the ground at this time. Some areas are completely thawed and can absorb rainfall helping to mitigate flooding. In areas that remain frozen, the top few inches is thawed.

Streamflow and River Levels

Precipitation since December 1 is 50-75% of normal across southern Wisconsin. Streamflow values are close to average across southern Wisconsin. As a result, there is some room in rivers to hold additional rainfall.

Soil Moisture

Soil moisture is in the 20-30th percentile across southeast Wisconsin where the precipitation deficits since the fall are the greatest. The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates Moderate Drought in southeast Wisconsin and parts of south-central Wisconsin. As a result, there is room for the ground to absorb water from melting snow and spring rain in southeast Wisconsin. This is another big factor in the reduced flood risk in that area.

Looking Ahead (images auto update)

7 Day Precipitation Forecast

Extended outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center:

How To Prepare Safety

Preparedness/Early Actions:

Get a NOAA Weather Radio to be alerted to flash flood warnings and river flood warnings
Monitor weather forecasts for heavy rain potential
Have a communications plan for your family and a place to meet in higher ground.
Monitor river levels and forecasted river levels online: (National Site, USGS, MKX)
Know a safe way to exit your home and neighborhood and avoid any roads susceptible to flooding
Prepare your home:
- Consider flood insurance, especially if you are in a flood prone area - (may require 30 day notice)
- Make sure your sump pump is working and consider a backup.
- Have a professional install check-values to prevent floodwaters from backing up into the drains of your home
- Keep important documents in a waterproof, elevated container, not in the basement.
- Remove snow from roof, downspout area, and away from base of home
- Finish any outdoor projects that may be affected by heavy rain or flood waters
Prepare (Flood Ready, Flood Safety)

How To Stay Safe During a Flood:

Heed evacuation orders and evacuate your home if it is at risk
Turn Around, Don't Drown - never drive through flooded roads
- You do not know how deep the water is or if the road has been washed out
- You may damage your vehicle
- You put yourself and first responders at risk

Flood Risk and River Outlooks

Long Range Outlooks

Weekly Probability of Exceeding Flood Stage by Location. More information is here.

10 Day River Outlook

Includes 10 days of precipitation, snowmelt, and temperature. These are automated forecasts with no human forecaster intervention that update twice per day. More information is here.