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Southern Icing Event Coming to an End; Arctic Air Across the North

As icing transitions to rain and then ends across the South into the Mid-South, hazards will continue because thawing ice could still cause trees and tree limbs to break. A strong Arctic Front will bring cold temperatures and dangerous wind chills to -50 or colder across the North tier. Heavy snow can be expected across the east-central parts of Alaska. Read More >

 

PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook

The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook is an experimental consenus forecast, produced monthly for 14 stations within Hawaii and the USAPI. The PEAC Outlook uses data from the following 7 models: UKMO, NASA GMAO, ECMWFIRINCEP Constructed AnalogNCEP Coupled Model and APCC MME.

The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook is a probabalistic forecast displayed in tercile form (3 categories). The three categories represent the chances of an event falling into the "Below Average", "Near Average" and "Above Average" categories, respectively. For example, a seasonal rainfall forecast of 20:30:50 should be interpreted as follows: There is a 20% chance of "Below Average" rainfall for the season; a 30% chance of "Near Average" rainfall for the season; and a 50% chance of "Above Average" rainfall for the season.

For more information on terciles, click here.

 


January-February-March (JFM) 2023

Model:
UKMO
ECMWF

NCEP CA

NASA GMAO
NCEP Coupled
IRI
APCC
Final Outlook
Final Probabilities
 
Republic of Palau
 

Airai

L 7 ° 22' N,
λ 134° 32' E
Avg-Below
Above
Above
Avg-Below
Above
Above
Above
Above
30:30:40
 
Federated States of Micronesia
 
Yap
L 9° 29' N,
λ 138° 05' E
Below
Avg-Above
Above
Avg-Below
Above
Above
Above
Above
30:30:40
Chuuk
L 7° 28' N,
λ 151° 51' E
Below
Avg-Above
Above
Above
Above
Above
Above
Avg-Above
30:35:35
Pohnpei
L 6 ° 59' N,
λ 158° 12' E
Avg-Below
Above
Above
Above
Above
Above
Above
Above
25:30:45
Kosrae
L 5 ° 21' N,
λ 162° 57' E
Avg-Below
Above
Above
Avg-Below
Above
Avg-Above
Above
Above
25:35:40
 
Republic of the Marshall Islands
 
Kwajalein
L 8 ° 43' N,
λ 167° 44' E
Avg-Below
Above
Avg-Above
Above
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
Above
Above
25:35:40
Majuro
L 7° 04' N,
λ 171° 17' E
Avg.
Above
Above
Above
Above
Above
Above
Above
25:35:40
 
Guam and CNMI
 
Guam
L 13 ° 29' N,
λ 144° 48' E
Below
Above
Avg-Above
Avg.
Above
Above
Above
Above
25:30:45
Saipan
L 15 ° 06' N,
λ 145° 48' E
Below
Above
Avg-Above
Avg.
Above
Clim.
Above
Above
25:30:45
 
American Samoa
 
Pago Pago
L 14 ° 20' S,
λ 170° 43' E
Above
Below
Avg-Below
Below
Avg.
Clim.
Below
Avg.
30:40:30
 
State of Hawaii
 
Lihue
L 21 ° 59' N,
λ 159 ° 20' E
Above
Above
Above
Avg-Above
Avg.
Clim.
Above
Avg-Above
30:35:35
Honolulu
L 21 ° 19' N,
λ 157° 56' W
Above
Above
Above
Avg-Above
Avg.
Clim.
Above
Avg-Above
30:35:35
Kahului
L 20 ° 54' N,
λ 156° 26' E
Above
Above
Above
Avg-Above
Avg.
Clim.
Above
Avg-Above
30:35:35
Hilo
L 19 ° 43' N,
λ 155° 03' E
Above
Above
Above
Avg-Above
Avg.
Clim.
Above
Avg-Above
30:35:35

 


Forecast Discussion

 

Airai: Rainfall for January-February-March 2023 is expected to be Above. for Airai. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 23.9 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 23.9 inches and 32.43 inches; and a 40% chance that rainfall will be greater than 32.43 inches.

Yap: Rainfall for January-February-March 2023 is expected to be Above for Yap. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 14.98 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 14.98 inches and 21.91 inches; and a 40% chance that rainfall will be greater than 21.91 inches.

Chuuk: Rainfall for January-February-March 2023 is expected to be Avg-Above for Chuuk. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 22.35 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 22.35 inches and 31.31 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 31.31 inches.

Pohnpei: Rainfall for January-February-March 2023 is expected to be Above for Pohnpei. There is a 25% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 34.4 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 34.4 inches and 43.28 inches; and a 45% chance that rainfall will be greater than 43.28 inches.

Kosrae: Rainfall for January-February-March 2023 is expected to be Above for Kosrae. There is a 25% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 43.67 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 43.67 inches and 53.33 inches; and a 40% chance that rainfall will be greater than 53.33 inches.

Kwajalein: Rainfall for January-February-March 2023 is expected to be Above for Kwajalein. There is a 25% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 7.24 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 7.24 inches and 11.19 inches; and a 40% chance that rainfall will be greater than 11.19 inches.

Majuro: Rainfall for January-February-March 2023 is expected to be Above for Majuro. There is a 25% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 20.29  inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 20.29 inches and 24.26 inches; and a 40% chance that rainfall will be greater than 24.26 inches.

Guam: Rainfall for January-February-March 2023 is expected to be Above for Guam. There is a 25% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 8.52  inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 8.52 inches and 11.35 inches; and a 40% chance that rainfall will be greater than 11.35 inches.

Saipan: Rainfall for January-February-March 2023 is expected to be Above for Saipan. There is a 25% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 6.98 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 6.98 inches and 9.47 inches; and a 40% chance that rainfall will be greater than 9.47 inches.

Pago Pago: Rainfall for January-February-March 2023 is expected to be Avg. for Pago Pago. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 35.08 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 35.08 inches and 42.92 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 42.92 inches.

Lihue: Rainfall for January-February-March 2023 is expected to be Avg-Above for Lihue. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 6.52 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 6.52 inches and 13.75 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 13.75 inches.

Honolulu: Rainfall for January-February-March 2023 is expected to be Avg-Above for Honolulu. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 2.08 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 2.08 inches and 7.8 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 7.8 inches.

Kahului: Rainfall for January-February-March 2023 is expected to be Avg-Above for Kahului. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 4.24 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 4.24 inches and 8.23  inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 8.23 inches.

Hilo: Rainfall for January-February-March 2023 is expected to be Avg-Above for Hilo. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 22 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 22 inches and 44.53 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 44.53 inches.


The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook is an experimental consensus forecast, produced monthly by the Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Service's for 14 stations within Hawaii and the USAPI. Tercile cut-offs for each location and season are based on Pacific Rainfall Climatologies (Climate Prediction Center) 1981-2010. The new climatologies are currently in the works and will be integrated once approved. Last Updated: January 24, 2023