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Significant Winter Storm to Impact the Western U.S into Tuesday; Critical Fire Weather Conditions Across the Southern High Plains

A strong winter storm will continue to progress into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin, bringing heavy mountain snow and strong winds through Tuesday. Heavy snow combined with strong winds will produce near-blizzard conditions, with snow rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour. Dry, gusty winds will create widespread critical fire weather conditions in the southern High Plains through Monday. Read More >

 

PEAC seasonal Rainfall Outlook

The PEAC seasonal Rainfall Outlook is an experimental consenus forecast, produced monthly for 14 stations within Hawaii and the USAPI. The PEAC Outlook uses data from the following 7 models: UKMO, NASA GMAO, ECMWFIRINCEP Constructed AnalogNCEP Coupled Model and APCC MME.

The PEAC seasonal Rainfall Outlook is a probabalistic forecast displayed in tercile form (3 categories). The three categories represent the chances of an event falling into the "Below Average", "Near Average" and "Above Average" categories, respectively. For example, a seasonal rainfall forecast of 20:30:50 should be interpreted as follows: There is a 20% chance of "Below Average" rainfall for the season; a 30% chance of "Near Average" rainfall for the season; and a 50% chance of "Above Average" rainfall for the season.

For more information on terciles, click here.

 


February-March-April (FMA) 2024

Model:
UKMO
ECMWF

NCEP CA

NASA GMAO
NCEP Coupled
IRI
APCC
Final Outlook
Final Probabilities
 
Republic of Palau
 

Koror

L 7 ° 22' N,
λ 134° 32' E
Below
Below
Avg-Below
Above
Avg.
Avg-Below
Below
Below
45:30:25
 
Federated States of Micronesia
 
Yap
L 9° 29' N,
λ 138° 05' E
Below
Below
Below
Avg-Above
Below
Below
Below
Below
50:30:20
Chuuk
L 7° 28' N,
λ 151° 51' E
Below
Below
Below
Below
Below
Below
Below
Below
50:30:20
Pohnpei
L 6 ° 59' N,
λ 158° 12' E
Below
Below
Below
Avg-Below
Below
Below
Below
Below
50:30:20
Kosrae
L 5 ° 21' N,
λ 162° 57' E
Below
Below
Below
Avg-Above
Below
Below
Below
Below
50:30:20
 
Republic of the Marshall Islands
 
Kwajalein
L 8 ° 43' N,
λ 167° 44' E
Below
Below
Below
Avg-Below
Avg-Below
Below
Below
Below
50:30:20
Majuro
L 7° 04' N,
λ 171° 17' E
Above
Below
Below
Avg.
Below
Below
Below
Below
45:30:25
 
Guam and CNMI
 
Guam
L 13 ° 29' N,
λ 144° 48' E
Avg-Below
Below
Below
Avg-Below
Avg-Below
Below
Below
Below
40:35:25
Saipan
L 15 ° 06' N,
λ 145° 48' E
Avg-Below
Below
Avg-Below
Avg-Below
Avg-Below
Avg-Below
Below
Below
40:35:25
 
American Samoa
 
Pago Pago
L 14 ° 20' S,
λ 170° 43' E
Above
Below
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
Avg.
Above
Below
Avg-Above
30:35:35
 
State of Hawaii
 
Lihue
L 21 ° 59' N,
λ 159 ° 20' E
Below
Below
Avg-Below
Avg-Below
Avg.
Below
Below
Below
45:30:25
Honolulu
L 21 ° 19' N,
λ 157° 56' W
Below
Below
Avg-Below
Avg-Below
Avg.
Below
Below
Below
45:30:25
Kahului
L 20 ° 54' N,
λ 156° 26' E
Below
Below
Avg-Below
Avg-Below
Avg.
Below
Below
Below
45:30:25
Hilo
L 19 ° 43' N,
λ 155° 03' E
Below
Below
Avg-Below
Avg-Below
Avg.
Below
Below
Below
45:30:25

 


Forecast Discussion

 

Koror: Rainfall for February-March-April 2024 is expected to be Below for Airai. There is a 45% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 22.53 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 22.53  inches and 31.23 inches; and a 25% chance that rainfall will be greater than 31.23 inches.

Yap: Rainfall for February-March-April 2024 is expected to be Below for Yap. There is a 50% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 14.18 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 14.18 inches and 19.83 inches; and a 20% chance that rainfall will be greater than 19.83 inches.

Chuuk: Rainfall for February-March-April 2024 is expected to be Below for Chuuk. There is a 50% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 25.26  inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 25.26 inches and 31.4 inches; and a 20% chance that rainfall will be greater than 31.4 inches.

Pohnpei: Rainfall for February-March-April 2024 is expected to be Below for Pohnpei. There is a 50% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 38.32 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 38.32 inches and 48.92 inches; and a 20% chance that rainfall will be greater than 43.28 inches.48.92 

Kosrae: Rainfall for February-March-April 2024 is expected to be Below for Kosrae. There is a 50% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 45.07 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 45.07 inches and 52.02 inches; and a 20% chance that rainfall will be greater than 52.02 inches.

Kwajalein: Rainfall for February-March-April 2024 is expected to be Below for Kwajalein. There is a 50% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 8.63 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 8.63 inches and 16.52 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 16.52 inches.

Majuro: Rainfall for February-March-April 2024 is expected to be Below for Majuro. There is a 45% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 21.03 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 21.03 inches and 28.4 inches; and a 25% chance that rainfall will be greater than 28.4 inches.

Guam: Rainfall for February-March-April 2024 is expected to be Below for Guam. There is a 40% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 6.88 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 6.88 inches and 10.04  inches; and a 25% chance that rainfall will be greater than 10.04 inches.

Saipan: Rainfall for February-March-April 2024 is expected to be Below for Saipan. There is a 40% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 6.15 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 6.15 inches and 8.74 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 8.74 inches.

Pago Pago: Rainfall for February-March-April 2024 is expected to be Avg-Above for Pago Pago. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 32.29  inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 32.29  inches and 36.83 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 36.83 inches.

Lihue: Rainfall for February-March-April 2024 is expected to be Below for Lihue. There is a 45% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 5.78 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 5.78 inches and 9.92 inches; and a 25% chance that rainfall will be greater than 9.92 inches.

Honolulu: Rainfall for February-March-April 2024 is expected to be Below for Honolulu. There is a 45% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 1.88 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 1.88 inches and 4.7 inches; and a 25% chance that rainfall will be greater than 4.7 inches.

Kahului: Rainfall for February-March-April 2024 is expected to be Below for Kahului. There is a 45% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 3.25 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 3.25 inches and 6.41 inches; and a 25% chance that rainfall will be greater than 6.41 inches.

Hilo: Rainfall for February-March-April 2024 is expected to be Below for Hilo. There is a 45% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 24.59 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 24.59 inches and 45.54 inches; and a 25% chance that rainfall will be greater than 45.54 inches.


The PEAC seasonal Rainfall Outlook is an experimental consensus forecast, produced monthly by the Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Service's for 14 stations within Hawaii and the USAPI. Tercile cut-offs for each location and season are based on Pacific Rainfall Climatologies (Climate Prediction Center) 1981-2010. The new climatologies are currently in the works and will be integrated once approved. Last Updated: February 22, 2024