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Tropical Rainfall Continues from the Remnants of Imelda

Intense tropical rainfall continues in portions of Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana from the remnants of Imelda. These additional rains will only compound ongoing issues with flooding. The heavy rain focus will gradually shift to the ArkLaTex region on Friday. Also on Friday, a cold front arriving into the Upper Midwest will likely produce severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall. Read More >

 

PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook

The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook is an experimental consenus forecast, produced monthly for 14 stations within Hawaii and the USAPI. The PEAC Outlook uses data from the following 7 models: UKMO, NASA GMAO, ECMWFIRINCEP Constructed AnalogNCEP Coupled Model and APCC MME.

The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook is a probabalistic forecast displayed in tercile form (3 categories). The three categories represent the chances of an event falling into the "Below Average", "Near Average" and "Above Average" categories, respectively. For example, a seasonal rainfall forecast of 20:30:50 should be interpreted as follows: There is a 20% chance of "Below Average" rainfall for the season; a 30% chance of "Near Average" rainfall for the season; and a 50% chance of "Above Average" rainfall for the season.

For more information on terciles, click here.

 


September - October - November (SON) 2019

Model:
UKMO
ECMWF

NCEP CA

NASA GMAO
NCEP Coupled
IRI
APCC
PEAC CCA
Final Outlook
Final Probabilities
 
Republic of Palau
 

Koror

L 7 ° 22' N,
λ 134° 32' E
Below
Avg-Below
Avg.
Avg-Below
Avg-Below
Clim.
Below
Below
Below
45:35:20
 
Federated States of Micronesia
 
Yap
L 9° 29' N,
λ 138° 05' E
Below
Above
Avg-Above
Avg-Below
Avg.
Clim.
Below
Avg.
Avg-Below
35:35:30
Chuuk
L 7° 28' N,
λ 151° 51' E
Avg-Above
Avg.
Avg.
Avg.
Avg.
Clim.
Avg.
Avg.
Average
30:40:30
Pohnpei
L 6 ° 59' N,
λ 158° 12' E
Above
Avg.
Avg.
Avg-Below
Avg.
Clim.
Avg.
Avg.
Avg-Above
30:35:35
Kosrae
L 5 ° 21' N,
λ 162° 57' E
Avg.
Avg.
Avg-Below
Avg-Below
Avg.
Clim.
Avg.
Avg-Above
Average
30:40:30
 
Republic of the Marshall Islands
 
Kwajalein
L 8 ° 43' N,
λ 167° 44' E
Above
Above
Avg.
Avg.
Avg-Above.
Clim.
Avg.
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
30:35:35
Majuro
L 7° 04' N,
λ 171° 17' E
Avg-Below
Below
Avg-Below
Avg.
Avg.
Clim.
Avg.
Avg-Above
Average
30:40:30
 
Guam and CNMI
 
Guam
L 13 ° 29' N,
λ 144° 48' E
Above
Above
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
Avg.
Clim.
Avg.
Avg-Above
Above
25:35:40
Saipan
L 15 ° 06' N,
λ 145° 48' E
Above
Above
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
Avg.
Clim.
Above
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
30:35:35
 
American Samoa
 
Pago Pago
L 14 ° 20' S,
λ 170° 43' E
Avg.
Avg-Above
Avg.
Avg.
Avg.
Clim.
Above
Avg-Above
Average
30:40:30
 
State of Hawaii
 
Lihue
L 21 ° 59' N,
λ 159 ° 20' E
Above
Above
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
Above
Above
Avg.
Avg-Above
30:35:35
Honolulu
L 21 ° 19' N,
λ 157° 56' W
Above
Above
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
Above
Above
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
30:35:35
Kahului
L 20 ° 54' N,
λ 156° 26' E
Above
Above
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
Above
Above
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
30:35:35
Hilo
L 19 ° 43' N,
λ 155° 03' E
Above
Above
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
Above
Above
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
30:35:35

 


Forecast Discussion

Koror: Rainfall for September- October- November 2019 is expected to be Below  for Koror. There is a 40% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 30.65 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 30.65 inches and 41.38 inches; and a 25% chance that rainfall will be greater than 41.38 inches.

Yap: Rainfall for September- October- November 2019 is expected to be Average-Below for Yap. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 32.05 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 32.05 inches and 38.09 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 38.09 inches.

Chuuk: Rainfall for September- October- November 2019 is expected to be Average for Chuuk. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 32.73 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 32.73 inches and 38.35 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 38.35 inches.

Pohnpei: Rainfall for September- October- November 2019 is expected to be Avg-Above for Pohnpei. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 41.51 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 41.51 inches and 47.07 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 47.07 inches.

Kosrae: Rainfall for September- October- November 2019 is expected to be Average  for Kosrae. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 38.3 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 38.3 inches and 43.49 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 43.49  inches.

Kwajalein: Rainfall for September- October- November 2019 is expected to be Avg-Above for Kwajalein. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 30.69 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 30.69 inches and 34.83 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 34.83 inches.

Majuro: Rainfall for September- October- November 2019 is expected to be  for  Average  Majuro.There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 34.74 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 34.74 inches and 42.55 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 42.55 inches.

Guam: Rainfall for September- October- November 2019 is expected to be Avg-Above for Guam. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 30.44 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 30.44 inches and 33.78 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 33.78 inches.

Saipan: Rainfall for September- October- November 2019 is expected to be Avg-Above for Saipan. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 26.19 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 26.19 inches and 29.77 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 29.77 inches.

Pago Pago: Rainfall for September- October- November 2019 is expected to be Average  for Pago Pago. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 26.91 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 26.91 inches and 31.48 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 31.48 inches.

Lihue: Rainfall for September- October- November 2019 is expected to be Above for Lihue. There is a 25% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 9.17 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 9.17 inches and 11.22 inches; and a 45% chance that rainfall will be greater than 11.22 inches.

Honolulu: Rainfall for September- October- November 2019 is expected to be Above for Honolulu. There is a 25% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 2.52 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 2.52 inches and 5.59 inches; and a 45% chance that rainfall will be greater than 5.59 inches.

Kahului: Rainfall for September- October- November 2019 is expected to be Above for Kahului. There is a 25% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 2.08 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 2.08 inches and 4.76 inches; and a 45% chance that rainfall will be greater than 4.76 inches.

Hilo: Rainfall for September- October- November 2019 is expected to be Above for Hilo. There is a 25% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 24.29 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 24.29 inches and 40.81 inches; and a 45% chance that rainfall will be greater than 40.81 inches.


The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook is an experimental consensus forecast, produced monthly by the Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Service's for 14 stations within Hawaii and the USAPI. Tercile cut-offs for each location and season are based on Pacific Rainfall Climatologies (Climate Prediction Center) 1981-2010. The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook for September- October- November (SON) 2019 was made available on 11 September 2019.