National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Winter Storm To Impact Parts Of The Ohio Valley and Great Lakes To Northern New England

A developing winter storm will sweep up through the Northeastern quadrant of the U.S. over the next two days. A swath of heavy snow will be followed by lake effect snow from parts of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes to northern New England. Also, locally heavy rain will be possible across portions of the Northeast, while a potential line of strong thunderstorms may roll through the Mid-Atlantic. Read More >

 

PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook

The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook is an experimental consenus forecast, produced monthly for 14 stations within Hawaii and the USAPI. The PEAC Outlook uses data from the following 7 models: UKMO, NASA GMAO, ECMWFIRINCEP Constructed AnalogNCEP Coupled Model and APCC MME.

The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook is a probabalistic forecast displayed in tercile form (3 categories). The three categories represent the chances of an event falling into the "Below Average", "Near Average" and "Above Average" categories, respectively. For example, a seasonal rainfall forecast of 20:30:50 should be interpreted as follows: There is a 20% chance of "Below Average" rainfall for the season; a 30% chance of "Near Average" rainfall for the season; and a 50% chance of "Above Average" rainfall for the season.

For more information on terciles, click here.

PEAC services is no longer providing the in house model, PEAC CCA as of January 2020. 

 


February - March - April (FMA) 2020

Model:
UKMO
ECMWF

NCEP CA

NASA GMAO
NCEP Coupled
IRI
APCC
PEAC CCA
Final Outlook
Final Probabilities
 
Republic of Palau
 

Koror

L 7 ° 22' N,
λ 134° 32' E
Avg-Below
Avg-Below
Avg-Below
Avg.
Below
Below
Below
-
Below
45:35:20
 
Federated States of Micronesia
 
Yap
L 9° 29' N,
λ 138° 05' E
Avg-Below
Below
Below
Avg-Below
Below
Below
Below
-
Below
40:35:25
Chuuk
L 7° 28' N,
λ 151° 51' E
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
Avg.
Avg-Below
Avg-Below
Avg-Below
Avg.
-
Avg-Below
35:35:30
Pohnpei
L 6 ° 59' N,
λ 158° 12' E
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
Avg.
Avg-Below
Avg-Below
Clim.
Avg.
-
Avg
30:40:30
Kosrae
L 5 ° 21' N,
λ 162° 57' E
Avg-Above
Above
Avg-Above
Avg.
Avg.
Above
Above
-
Avg
30:40:30
 
Republic of the Marshall Islands
 
Kwajalein
L 8 ° 43' N,
λ 167° 44' E
Avg-Above
Above
Avg-Above
Avg.
Avg.
Avg-Above
Above
-
Avg
30:40:30
Majuro
L 7° 04' N,
λ 171° 17' E
Avg-Above
Above
Avg-Above
Avg.
Avg-Above
Above
Above
-
Avg-Above
30:35:35
 
Guam and CNMI
 
Guam
L 13 ° 29' N,
λ 144° 48' E
Avg-Below
Below
Avg-Below
Avg.
Avg.
Below
Avg-Below
-
Below
40:35:25
Saipan
L 15 ° 06' N,
λ 145° 48' E
Below
Below
Avg-Below
Avg.
Avg.
Below
Below
-
Below
40:35:25
 
American Samoa
 
Pago Pago
L 14 ° 20' S,
λ 170° 43' E
Clim.
Below
Avg-Below
Below
Avg.
Clim.
Avg-Below
-
Avg
30:40:30
 
State of Hawaii
 
Lihue
L 21 ° 59' N,
λ 159 ° 20' E
Above
Avg.
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
Avg.
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
-
Avg-Above
30:35:35
Honolulu
L 21 ° 19' N,
λ 157° 56' W
Above
Avg.
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
Avg.
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
-
Avg-Above
30:35:35
Kahului
L 20 ° 54' N,
λ 156° 26' E
Above
Avg.
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
Avg.
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
-
Avg-Above
30:35:35
Hilo
L 19 ° 43' N,
λ 155° 03' E
Above
Avg.
Avg.
Avg-Above
Avg.
Avg-Above
Avg.
-
Avg-Above
30:35:35

 


Forecast Discussion

Koror: Rainfall for February - March - April 2020 is expected to be Below  for Koror. There is a 45% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 22.53 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 22.53 inches and 31.23 inches; and a 20% chance that rainfall will be greater than 31.23 inches.

Yap: Rainfall for February - March - April 2020 is expected to be Below for Yap. There is a 40% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 14.18 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 14.18 inches and 19.83 inches; and a 25% chance that rainfall will be greater than 19.83 inches.

Chuuk: Rainfall for February - March - April 2020 is expected to be Avg-Below for Chuuk. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 25.26 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 25.26 inches and 31.4 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 31.4 inches.

Pohnpei: Rainfall for February - March - April 2020 is expected to be Average for Pohnpei. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 38.32 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 38.32 inches and 48.92 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 48.92 inches.

Kosrae: Rainfall for February - March - April 2020 is expected to be Average for Kosrae. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 45.07 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 45.07 inches and 52.02 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 52.02  inches.

Kwajalein: Rainfall for February - March - April 2020 is expected to be Average for Kwajalein. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 8.63 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 8.63 inches and 16.52 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 16.52 inches.

Majuro: Rainfall for February - March - April 2020 is expected to be  for  Avg-Above Majuro.There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 21.03 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 21.03 inches and 28.4 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 28.4 inches.

Guam: Rainfall for February - March - April 2020 is expected to be Below for Guam. There is a 40% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 6.88 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 6.88 inches and 10.04 inches; and a 25% chance that rainfall will be greater than 10.04 inches.

Saipan: Rainfall for February - March - April 2020 is expected to be Below for Saipan. There is a 40% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 6.15 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 6.15 inches and 8.74 inches; and a 25% chance that rainfall will be greater than 8.74 inches.

Pago Pago: Rainfall for February - March - April 2020 is expected to be Average for Pago Pago. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 32.29 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 32.29 inches and 36.83 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 36.83 inches.

Lihue: Rainfall for February - March - April 2020 is expected to be Avg-Above  for Lihue. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 5.78 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 5.78 inches and 9.92 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 9.92 inches.

Honolulu: Rainfall for February - March - April 2020 is expected to be Avg-Above  for Honolulu. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 1.88 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 1.88 inches and 4.7 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 4.7 inches.

Kahului: Rainfall for February - March - April 2020 is expected to be Avg-Above  for Kahului. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 3.25 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 3.25 inches and 6.41 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 6.41 inches.

Hilo: Rainfall for February - March - April 2020 is expected to be Avg-Above  for Hilo. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the FMA season will be less than 24.59 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 24.59 inches and 45.54 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 45.54 inches.


The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook is an experimental consensus forecast, produced monthly by the Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Service's for 14 stations within Hawaii and the USAPI. Tercile cut-offs for each location and season are based on Pacific Rainfall Climatologies (Climate Prediction Center) 1981-2010. The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook for February - March - April (FMA) 2020 was made available on 18 February 2020 at 1800 UTC (Post-Teleconference).