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Ian Battering the Florida Peninsula with Catastrophic Storm Surge, Winds, and Flooding

Ian made landfall on mainland Florida as a category 4 major hurricane near 4:30 PM ET south of Punta Gorda near Pirate Harbor. Catastrophic storm surge inundation along with destructive waves is ongoing along the southwest Florida coastline. Hurricane-force winds are expected to spread inland to central Florida near the core of Ian through early Thursday. Heavy rainfall will continue flooding. Read More >

 

PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook

The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook is an experimental consenus forecast, produced monthly for 14 stations within Hawaii and the USAPI. The PEAC Outlook uses data from the following 7 models: UKMO, NASA GMAO, ECMWFIRINCEP Constructed AnalogNCEP Coupled Model and APCC MME.

The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook is a probabalistic forecast displayed in tercile form (3 categories). The three categories represent the chances of an event falling into the "Below Average", "Near Average" and "Above Average" categories, respectively. For example, a seasonal rainfall forecast of 20:30:50 should be interpreted as follows: There is a 20% chance of "Below Average" rainfall for the season; a 30% chance of "Near Average" rainfall for the season; and a 50% chance of "Above Average" rainfall for the season.

For more information on terciles, click here.

 


September-October-November (SON) 2022

Model:
UKMO
ECMWF

NCEP CA

NASA GMAO
NCEP Coupled
IRI
APCC
Final Outlook
Final Probabilities
 
Republic of Palau
 

Airai

L 7 ° 22' N,
λ 134° 32' E
Above
Avg.
Avg-Above
Avg-Below
Avg-Above
Below
Above
Above
30:30:40
 
Federated States of Micronesia
 
Yap
L 9° 29' N,
λ 138° 05' E
Above
Avg.
Avg.
Avg.
Avg.
Above
Above
Avg.
25:40:35
Chuuk
L 7° 28' N,
λ 151° 51' E
Below
Avg-Below
Avg.
Avg-Below
Avg.
Below
Above
Avg-Below
35:35:30
Pohnpei
L 6 ° 59' N,
λ 158° 12' E
Below
Avg-Below
Avg.
Avg.
Avg-Below
Below
Above
Avg-Below
35:35:30
Kosrae
L 5 ° 21' N,
λ 162° 57' E
Below
Below
Above
Above
Below
Clim.
Above
Below
40:30:30
 
Republic of the Marshall Islands
 
Kwajalein
L 8 ° 43' N,
λ 167° 44' E
Avg.
Avg-Below
Avg.
Avg-Above
Avg.
Above
Avg.
Avg.
30:40:30
Majuro
L 7° 04' N,
λ 171° 17' E
Below
Avg.
Above
Above
Avg-Below
Above
Above
Avg-Below
35:35:30
 
Guam and CNMI
 
Guam
L 13 ° 29' N,
λ 144° 48' E
Avg-Below
Avg.
Avg-Below
Avg-Below
Avg-Below
Below
Avg.
Avg.
30:40:30
Saipan
L 15 ° 06' N,
λ 145° 48' E
Avg.
Avg.
Avg.
Avg-Below
Avg-Below
Clim.
Avg.
Avg.
30:40:30
 
American Samoa
 
Pago Pago
L 14 ° 20' S,
λ 170° 43' E
Avg-Below
Below
Below
Avg-Below
Avg-Below
Clim.
Above
Avg-Below
35:35:30
 
State of Hawaii
 
Lihue
L 21 ° 59' N,
λ 159 ° 20' E
Avg.
Below
Avg-Below
Avg-Below
Avg.
Clim.
Below
Avg-Below
35:35:30
Honolulu
L 21 ° 19' N,
λ 157° 56' W
Avg.
Below
Avg-Below
Avg-Below
Avg.
Clim.
Below
Avg-Below
35:35:30
Kahului
L 20 ° 54' N,
λ 156° 26' E
Avg.
Below
Avg-Below
Avg-Below
Avg.
Clim.
Below
Avg-Below
35:35:30
Hilo
L 19 ° 43' N,
λ 155° 03' E
Avg.
Below
Avg-Below
Avg-Below
Avg-Below
Clim.
Below
Avg-Below
35:35:30

 


Forecast Discussion

 

Airai: Rainfall for September-October-November 2022 is expected to be Above. for Airai. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 30.65 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 30.65 inches and 41.38 inches; and a 40% chance that rainfall will be greater than 41.38 inches.

Yap: Rainfall for September-October-November 2022 is expected to be Avg for Yap. There is a 25% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 32.05 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 32.05 inches and 38.09 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 38.09 inches.

Chuuk: Rainfall for September-October-November 2022 is expected to be Avg-Below for Chuuk. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 32.73 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 32.73 inches and 38.35 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 38.35 inches.

Pohnpei: Rainfall for September-October-November 2022 is expected to be Avg-Below for Pohnpei. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 41.51 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 41.51 inches and 47.07 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 47.07 inches.

Kosrae: Rainfall for September-October-November 2022 is expected to be Below for Kosrae. There is a 40% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 38.3 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 38.3 inches and 43.49 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 43.49 inches.

Kwajalein: Rainfall for September-October-November 2022 is expected to be Avg. for Kwajalein. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 30.69 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 30.69 inches and 34.83 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 34.83 inches.

Majuro: Rainfall for September-October-November 2022 is expected to be Avg-Below for Majuro. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 34.74 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 34.74 inches and 42.55 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 42.55 inches.

Guam: Rainfall for September-October-November 2022 is expected to be Avg for Guam. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 30.44 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 30.44 inches and 38.78 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 38.78 inches.

Saipan: Rainfall for September-October-November 2022 is expected to be Avg for Saipan. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 26.19 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 26.19 inches and 29.77 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 29.77 inches.

Pago Pago: Rainfall for September-October-November 2022 is expected to be Avg-Below for Pago Pago. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 26.91 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 26.91 inches and 31.48 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 31.48 inches.

Lihue: Rainfall for September-October-November 2022 is expected to be Avg-Below for Lihue. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 9.17 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 9.17 inches and 11.22 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 11.22 inches.

Honolulu: Rainfall for September-October-November 2022 is expected to be Avg-Below for Honolulu. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 2.52 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 2.52 inches and 5.59 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 5.59 inches.

Kahului: Rainfall for September-October-November 2022 is expected to be Avg-Below for Kahului. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 2.08 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 2.08 inches and 4.76 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 4.76 inches.

Hilo: Rainfall for September-October-November 2022 is expected to be Avg-Below for Hilo. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the SON season will be less than 24.29 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 24.29 inches and 40.81 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 40.81 inches.


The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook is an experimental consensus forecast, produced monthly by the Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Service's for 14 stations within Hawaii and the USAPI. Tercile cut-offs for each location and season are based on Pacific Rainfall Climatologies (Climate Prediction Center) 1981-2010. The new climatologies are currently in the works and will be integrated once approved. Last Updated: September 9, 2022