National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Wet Pattern Over The Northeast U.S., Inclement Weather To Return To The West Coast

A series of storms will bring rain and gusty winds to the Northeast U.S. for the next couple of days. The combination of snow-melt and rain will bring potential for flooding on main stem rivers, especially in northern New England. An active weather pattern will resume over the West Coast this weekend and continue into early next week. Rain, high elevation snow, and gusty winds will be possible. Read More >

 

PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook

The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook is an expirimental consenus forecast, produced monthly for 14 stations within Hawaii and the USAPI. The PEAC Outlook uses data from the following 7 models: UKMONASA GMAOECMWFIRINCEP Constructed AnalogNCEP Coupled Model and APCC MME.

The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook is a probabalistic forecast displayed in tercile form (3 categories). The three categories represent the chances of an event falling into the "Below Average", "Near Average" and "Above Average" categories, respectively. For example, a seasonal rainfall forecast of 20:30:50 should be interpreted as follows: There is a 20% chance of "Below Average" rainfall for the season; a 30% chance of "Near Average" rainfall for the season; and a 50% chance of "Above Average" rainfall for the season.

For more information on terciles, click here.

 


April - May - June (AMJ) 2018

Model:
Final Outlook
Final Probabilities
 
Republic of Palau
 

Koror

L 7 ° 22' N,
λ 134° 32' E
Above
Above
Avg-Above
Avg-Below
Avg-Above
Above
Above
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
30:35:35
 
Federated States of Micronesia
 
Yap
L 9° 29' N,
λ 138° 05' E
Above
Above
Above
Avg-Below
Avg-Above
Avg
Above
Above
Above
25:35:40
Chuuk
L 7° 28' N,
λ 151° 51' E
Above
Above
Avg-Above
Below
Avg
Above
Above
Above
Above
25:35:40
Pohnpei
L 6 ° 59' N,
λ 158° 12' E
Above
Above
Avg-Above
Below
Avg
Above
Above
Above
Above
30:30:40
Kosrae
L 5 ° 21' N,
λ 162° 57' E
Below
Below
Avg-Above
Below
Avg
Above
Avg
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
30:35:35
 
Republic of the Marshall Islands
 
Kwajalein
L 8 ° 43' N,
λ 167° 44' E
Above
Above
Above
Above
Avg
Above
Above
Above
Above
20:35:45
Majuro
L 7° 04' N,
λ 171° 17' E
Below
Above
Above
Avg-Below
Avg
Above
Above
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
30:35:35
 
Guam and CNMI
 
Guam
L 13 ° 29' N,
λ 144° 48' E
Above
Above
Above
Avg
Avg
Above
Above
Avg-Above
Average
30:40:30
Saipan
L 15 ° 06' N,
λ 145° 48' E
Above
Above
Above
Avg
Avg
Above
Above
Avg-Above
Average
30:40:30
 
American Samoa
 
Pago Pago
L 14 ° 20' S,
λ 170° 43' E
Above
Above
Below
Avg
Avg-Below
Avg
Below
Avg-Above
Avg-Below
35:35:30
 
State of Hawaii
 
Lihue
L 21 ° 59' N,
λ 159 ° 20' E
Above
Above
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
Above
Above
Above
Above
Above
30:30:40
Honolulu
L 21 ° 19' N,
λ 157° 56' W
Above
Above
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
Above
Above
Above
Above
Above
25:35:40
Kahului
L 20 ° 54' N,
λ 156° 26' E
Above
Above
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
Above
Above
Above
Above
Above
20:35:45
Hilo
L 19 ° 43' N,
λ 155° 03' E
Above
Above
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
Above
Above
Above
Avg-Above
Above
20:35:45

 


Forecast Discussion

Koror: Rainfall for April - May - June 2018 is expected to be Average or Average Above for Koror. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the AMJ season will be less than 34.28 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 34.28 inches and 42.1 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 42.1 inches.

Yap: Rainfall for April - May - June 2018 is expected to be Above Average for Yap. There is a 25% chance that rainfall during the AMJ season will be less than 21 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 21 inches and 32.89 inches; and a 40% chance that rainfall will be greater than 32.89 inches.

Chuuk: Rainfall for April - May - June 2018 is expected to be Above Average for Chuuk. There is a 25% chance that rainfall during the AMJ season will be less than 32.97 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 32.97 inches and 39.15 inches; and a 40% chance that rainfall will be greater than 39.15 inches.

Pohnpei: Rainfall for April - May - June 2018 is expected to be Above Average for Pohnpei. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the AMJ season will be less than 49.71 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 49.71 inches and 56.96 inches; and a 40% chance that rainfall will be greater than 56.96 inches.

Kosrae: Rainfall for April - May - June 2018 is expected to be Average or Average Above for Kosrae. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the AMJ season will be less than 47.62 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 47.62 inches and 51.87 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 51.87 inches.

Kwajalein: Rainfall for April - May - June 2018 is expected to be Above Average for Kwajalein. There is a 20% chance that rainfall during the AMJ season will be less than 15.41 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 15.41 inches and 26.35 inches; and a 45% chance that rainfall will be greater than 26.35 inches.

Majuro: Rainfall for April - May - June 2018 is expected to be  for Average or Average Above Majuro.There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the AMJ season will be less than 25.63 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 25.63 inches and 34.51 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 34.51 inches.

Guam: Rainfall for April - May - June 2018 is expected to be Average for Guam. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the AMJ season will be less than 13.05 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 13.05 inches and 15.95 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 15.95 inches.

Saipan: Rainfall for April - May - June 2018 is expected to be Average  for Saipan. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the AMJ season will be less than 8.14 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 8.14 inches and 11.06 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 11.06 inches.

Pago Pago: Rainfall for April - May - June 2018 is expected to be Average or Average Below for Pago Pago. There is a 35% chance that rainfall during the AMJ season will be less than 22.42 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 22.42 inches and 33.53 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 33.53 inches.

Lihue: Rainfall for April - May - June 2018 is expected to be Above Average for Lihue. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the AMJ season will be less than 4.74 inches; a 30% chance that rainfall will be between 4.74 inches and 5.97 inches; and a 40% chance that rainfall will be greater than 5.97 inches.

Honolulu: Rainfall for April - May - June 2018 is expected to be Above Average for Honolulu. There is a 25% chance that rainfall during the AMJ season will be less than 1.23 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 1.23 inches and 1.77 inches; and a 40% chance that rainfall will be greater than 1.77 inches.

Kahului: Rainfall for April - May - June 2018 is expected to be Above Average for Kahului. There is a 20% chance that rainfall during the AMJ season will be less than 1.25 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 1.25 inches and 2.17 inches; and a 45% chance that rainfall will be greater than 2.17 inches.

Hilo: Rainfall for April - May - June 2018 is expected to be Above Average for Hilo. There is a 20% chance that rainfall during the AMJ season will be less than 21.42 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 21.42 inches and 29.01 inches; and a 45% chance that rainfall will be greater than 29.01 inches.


The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook is an experimental consensus forecast, produced monthly by the Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center for 14 stations within Hawaii and the USAPI. Tercile cut-offs for each location and season are based on Pacific Rainfall Climatologies (Climate Prediction Center) 1981-2010. The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook for April - May - June (AMJ) 2018 was made available on 12 April 2018.