PEAC Research

A major focus of ongoing applied research at PEAC is the investigation of statistical correlations between ENSO and sea level. Seasonal sea level forecasts, discussion and verification are issued every 3 months in the Pacific ENSO Update newsletter.

Statistical studies on regional climatology and the ENSO cycle are underway at the University of Guam (UOG) and the University of Hawaii (UH). This cooperative research activity is being led by the Water and Environmental Research Institute (WERI) of the UOG, through a sub-grant from PEAC. The studies aim to develop ENSO-related impact criteria for the Islands, through examination of:

• Historical floods and droughts, their causes, impacts on agriculture, and other information concerning water resources in each regional area;
• The pattern of severe weather phenomena such as hurricanes and typhoons in each regional area;
• The distribution of commercially important fish species within each regional area, in cooperation with NOAA's National Marine Fisheries Service; and
• Relationships with the ENSO cycle, with an aim for developing predictive forecasts of 6 - 18 month lead times for the region.

Publications

The following papers are related to ongoing PEAC research and available for download:

PEAC & Hazards Mitigation

• Schroeder, T. A., M. R. Chowdhury, M. A. Lander, C. Guard, C. Felkley, and D. Gifford, 2012: The role of the Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center in reducing vulnerability to climate hazards: Experience from the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 1003-1015.

ENSO & Recent High Sea Levels

• Chowdhury M. R., A. G. Barnston, C. Guard, S. Duncan, T. Schroeder, and P.-S. Chu, 2010: Sea-level variability and change in the U.S-Affiliated Pacific Islands: Understanding the high sea levels during 2006-08, Weather, 65, 263-268.

Sea Level Extremes and GEV

• Chowdhury M. R., P.-S. Chu, X. Zhao, T. Schroeder, and J. Marra, 2009: Sea-level extremes in the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands—a coastal hazards scenario to aid in decision analysis,  J. Coast. Conserv., 14, 53-62.
   
• Chowdhury M. R., P.-S. Chu, T. Schroeder, and X. Zhao, 2008: Variability and predictability of sea-level extremes in the Hawaiian and U.S.-Trust Islands—knowledge base for coastal hazards management, J. Coast. Conserv., 12, 93-104.

Seasonal Sea-level Forecasts

• Chowdhury M.R. and P.-S. Chu, 2015: Sea Level Forecasts and Early-Warning Application: Expanding Cooperation in the South Pacific.Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96, 381–386.â��
• Chowdhury M. R., P.-S. Chu and C. Guard, 2014: An Improved Sea Level Forecasting Scheme for Hazards Management in the US-affiliated Pacific Islands.  Int. J. of Climatol., 34, 2320-2329.
• Chowdhury M. R., P.-S. Chu, T. Schroeder, and N. Colasacco, 2007: Seasonal Sea-level Forecasts by Canonical Correlation Analysis – An Operational Scheme for the U.S-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI), Int. J. of Climatol., 27, 1389-1402.
• Widlansky, M., J. Marra, M. Chowdhury, S. Stephens, E. Miles, N. Fauchereau, C. Spillman, G. Smith, G. Beard, and J. Wells, 2017: Multi-model ensemble sea level forecasts for tropical Pacific islands. J. Appl. Meteorology and Climatology. 56: 849-862, https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0284.1

ENSO & Sea-level Variability

• Chowdhury M. R., P.-S. Chu, and T. Schroeder, 2007: ENSO and Seasonal Sea-level Variability – A Diagnostic Discussion for the U.S-Affiliated Pacific Islands, Theo. Appl Climatol., 88, 213-224.

ENSO & Rainfall Variability

• Yu Z.-P., P.-S. Chu, and T. Schroeder, 1997: Predictive skills of seasonal to annual rainfall variations in the U. S. affiliated Pacific islands: Canonical correlation analysis and multivariate principal component regression approaches,  J. Climate, 10, 2586-2599.

ENSO & Climate Change

• Chowdhury, R., and P.-S. Chu, 2019, A study on the changing climate in the U.S-Affiliated Pacific Islands using observations and CMIP5 model output, Meteorol. Appl.

Other

• Fourth National Climate Assessment; CHAPTER 27: Hawai'i and U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands.https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/27/