Decision Support Page for New Castle County

Forecast Discussion

104
FXUS61 KPHI 101032
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
632 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Special Weather Statement was issued for the Eastern Shore of
Maryland as well as Kent and Sussex County, DE as some patchy
fog, some of which could be dense, will continue to impact the
morning commute.

A Small Craft Advisory was issued for all ocean zones for this
afternoon and tonight.

Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Patchy fog expected this morning, mainly over far South
Jersey and Delmarva.

2. Elevated risk of rapid fire spread expected Saturday behind a
mostly dry cold front. A mainly dry weather pattern continues
through the weekend.

3. A significant warm up is expected for the early and middle part
of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Patchy fog expected this morning, mainly over
far South Jersey and Delmarva.

A deck of stratus has developed over most of the area.
Increased cloud cover kept temperatures warmer, limiting the
frost threat through the morning. However, low dewpoint
depressions has resulted in some patchy fog developing, which
could impact the morning commute. Seeing some visibility below
1 mile over central and southern Delaware and the Eastern Shore,
with some locally dense fog of 1/4 mile being observed as well.
Went ahead and issued a Special Weather Statement for central
and southern Delaware as well as the Eastern Shore. Don`t think
dense fog is widespread enough to warrant a Dense Fog Advisory,
but there could be some slow downs due to poor visibility in
those areas.

Any fog should mix out and break by 9 AM or so.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Elevated risk of rapid fire spread expected Saturday
behind a mostly dry cold front. A mainly dry weather pattern
continues through the weekend.

A cold front will move through the region tonight. A few light
showers may accompany the frontal passage, mainly up in the Poconos,
though as of right now, the potential for a wetting rainfall remains
low (15% chance or less).

Widespread RHs around 25-35% are expected to follow on Saturday
with northwest wind gusts potentially increasing to around
25-35 mph. Fuel moistures will likely continue to decrease
across the region as well with the continued dry conditions.
Saturday continues to bear watching for fire weather concerns,
as a result. Sunday may bear watching as well, with dry
conditions continuing through the end of the weekend, though
wind gusts will likely be lower, around 15-25 mph.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A significant warm up is expected for the early and
middle part of next week.

After a seasonable weekend, a significant warming trend will likely
take place across the area early next week. High pressure will
initially build back in across the region in the wake of the cold
front this weekend, before shifting east and allowing for a
prolonged period of return flow. By mid-week, high temperatures
could surge well into the 80s across much of the area, with
overnight lows only falling into the 60s. 90 is not out of the
question in the typical hot spots.

A series of weak disturbances could bring a slight chance
(15-25%) for showers Monday and Tuesday, primarily for areas
northwest of the I-95 corridor. Otherwise, conditions are
expected to remain dry until Wednesday into Thursday, when a
cold front may move through the area from the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...A deck of stratus has developed over all terminals
bringing IFR CIGs, with some patchy fog and reduced VSBYs around
KACY. IFR CIGs should break between 13z-14z, and expecting VFR
thereafter. Winds out of the south/southwest increasing to
around 10 kt, with gusts up to 20 kt anticipated for the
afternoon. Moderate confidence overall.

Tonight...VFR. A cold front will move through, resulting in a
wind shift late tonight. It will mainly be a dry frontal passage
but cannot rule out some showers at KABE and KRDG (20-30%
chance). Winds start out around 5-10 kt out of the southwest,
becoming northwesterly as the front passes between 06z-11z from
west to east. Gusts in the 20-25 kt range expected around
daybreak out of the northwest. Moderate confidence.

Saturday...VFR. Northwesterly wind gusts around 20 to 25 kt
expected. High confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday Night through Tuesday...VFR. No significant weather.

&&

.MARINE...
Tranquil weather expected on the waters this morning with sub-SCA
conditions expected. Seas build a bit this afternoon and tonight,
getting near 5 to 6 feet. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect
for this afternoon, continuing through tonight. Winds generally out
of the south/southwest around 10-20 kt.

Outlook...

Saturday...SCA conditions possible with seas lingering near 5
feet.

Saturday night through Sunday...No marine hazards anticipated.
Winds under 25 kt. Seas under 5 feet.

Sunday night through Monday night...SCA conditions possible.
Southerly winds gusting near 25 kt. Seas increase to 4-6 feet.

Tuesday...No marine hazards anticipated. Winds under 25 kt.
Seas under 5 feet.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT
Saturday for ANZ450>452.
Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM EDT Saturday for
ANZ453>455.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AKL/Hoeflich
AVIATION...AKL/Hoeflich
MARINE...AKL/Hoeflich

Latest Observation at Wilmington

Data at: 0000 UTC 03 Sep 2023

METAR for:

KILG (Wilmington/New Castl, DE, US)

Text:

KILG 022351Z 17009KT 10SM CLR 23/18 A3009 RMK AO2 SLP190 T02330178 10283 20233 56008

Temperature:

23.3°C ( 74°F)

Dewpoint:

17.8°C ( 64°F) [RH = 71%]

Pressure (altimeter):

30.09 inches Hg (1019.0 mb) [Sea level pressure: 1019.0 mb]