Forecast Discussion

070
FXUS61 KPHI 072328
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
728 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Aviation Section for 0Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cloudy and cool weather through this evening with the return
of sunshine and warmer weather on Wednesday.

2) Rounds of showers and thunderstorms return for Thursday through
Saturday as a cold front approaches and crosses through the
region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cloudy and cool weather through this evening with
the return of sunshine and warmer weather on Wednesday.

A strong marine layer continues to infiltrate the region this
afternoon. While some showers have passed by earlier in the day,
some additional shower or perhaps thunderstorm activity cannot
be ruled out across the Delmarva into this evening which lies in
closer proximity to a stalled boundary. Elsewhere, expect the
cool, cloudy weather to continue under mainly dry conditions.

Overnight tonight, the marine layer will likely remain in place.
Given relatively moist low-levels from recent rainfall, guidance
indicates that there may be some patchy areas of fog that
develop overnight. Hard to pin point where exactly this may
occur at this time.

Otherwise, the frontal boundary that has been nearby the past
several days will finally push well south of the area on
Wednesday. With high pressure building in, this will yield the
return on some sunshine with temperatures in the 70s and 80s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Rounds of showers and thunderstorms return for
Thursday through Saturday as a cold front approaches and crosses
through the region.

Isolated showers start to develop Wednesday night into Thursday
morning before coverage starts to increase more for Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night as a piece of upper-level energy moves
through the region. Winds out of the southwest on Thursday will
allow moisture to increase through the day. From these showers and
thunderstorms, there is the potential for heavy rain. PWAT values
will increase to upwards of 2 inches along with a warm cloud layer
process. All of this said, these showers and thunderstorms will have
the ability to be efficient rainfall producers. There is also the
signal for a marginal severe weather threat. Increasing instability
as temperatures reach the 80s for many along with rising humidity
and some supportive lapse rates are forecast. The magnitude of shear
values supporting storm organization is a little more uncertain. The
primary concern with any strong to severe thunderstorm is damaging
wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked the Eastern
Shore of MD in a Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. These
showers and thunderstorms look to diminish in coverage into Thursday
night.

On Friday, another round of showers and thunderstorms look to
develop ahead of the cold front moving through the area into
Saturday. Once again, as moisture increases ahead of the front,
PWAT values look to increase upwards of 2 inches with these
showers and thunderstorms having the potential to produce heavy
rain. In terms of any severe weather threat, there is forecast
to be instability present as temperatures reach near 90 for many
along with increasing humidity. Shear values and lapse rates
look more marginal currently. There remains uncertainty in how
the whole set-up evolves in terms of support for severe
thunderstorms. Some machine learning guidance does hint at a
potential for a marginal severe weather potential though.

Depending on how quickly the front sinks south of our area on
Saturday will play a role in how much shower and thunderstorm
activity lingers. A high pressure system will try to build in
from the north this weekend which will start to limit the
precipitation potential, particularly on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Prevailing MVFR ceilings likely to continue through
much of the night. Breaks likely overnight, and where they
occur, patchy fog may develop. For now will only put a little BR
in KRDG TAF and keep out of rest. Northeast winds generally
around 3-7 kt. Moderate confidence overall

Wednesday...Generally VFR. Winds become southwest by the
afternoon around 5-10 kt. Moderate- high confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday through Saturday...Prevailing VFR, but scattered showers
and storms could result in temporary restrictions to MVFR or even
IFR.

Sunday...VFR. No significant weather.

&&

.MARINE...
North-northeast winds around 10-15 kt are expected to continue
through tonight with seas mainly around 3-4 feet. Some seas
offshore may approach 5 feet overnight, but right now kept just
below as guidance has waned a bit. Observations will continue
to be monitored this evening.

For Wednesday, northeast winds around 15 kt in the morning will
diminish and settle out of the south around 5-10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas around 3-4 feet. Fair weather expected.

Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday...Conditions are anticipated to be below
Small Craft Advisory criteria. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are forecast Thursday through Saturday.

Rip Currents...

For Wednesday, northeast winds will linger much of the day,
strongest in the northern beaches, which when combined with
moderate easterly swell at 7-8 seconds will result in a MODERATE
risk of rip currents across northern NJ beaches but LOW further
south where winds are a little more relaxed (DE) and/or the
shoreline is more parellel to the wind (southern NJ).

For Thursday, winds are more southerly, and the moderate swell
also becomes more southeasterly. This combination gives a
MODERATE risk for the northern NJ beaches and DE beaches, but a
LOW risk for the southern NJ beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeSilva/Guzzo
AVIATION...DeSilva/Guzzo/RCM
MARINE...DeSilva/Guzzo/RCM

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Data at: 0000 UTC 03 Sep 2023

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