Gusty Winds in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast; Atmospheric River to Impact the Northwest

Gusty winds are expected from portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast through the night following the system that brought rain to the area. An atmospheric river will move into the Northwest late today into Saturday bringing moderate to heavy rainfall, mountain snow, windy conditions, and high surf to the area over the weekend. Read More >

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FXZS60 NSTU 020122
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
222 PM SST Sat Nov 1 2025

.DISCUSSION...
As the Hurricane Season 2025-2026 officially begins today, the
threats and impacts of what any system can bring comes to mind.
On the latest satellite imageries together with upper air
observations (RAOB) from this afternoon (02/00Z), the threat of
flash flooding and thunderstorms continues to linger in the area.
Precipitable water content (PWAT) and thunderstorm probability
(TOTL) increased compared to the last 12 hour run. Instability
indicator (KINX) value also increased. Expect flash flooding
conditions to remain over the islands by at least early Sunday
morning. Nevertheless, model data in the last couple of runs have
been consistent in bringing a moist atmospheric profile for the
weekend into the new week. However, this morning`s model run shows
moisture lingering in the area through at least early Sunday
morning. This is due mainly to a mid-level low pressure system
moving south of the area as the broad high pressure system to the
south (near New Zealand) migrates east, turning winds northeast
and pushing the trough southward on Sunday through midweek. Expect
flash flooding conditions to remain over the islands through at
least early Sunday.

By Wednesday night, winds will slowly turn east with showers
embedded within the wind flow as another high pressure system from
the southwest migrates east. Expect scattered to numerous showers
with gentle to moderate easterlies for the rest of the forecast
period.

&&

.Marine...
Observations from the PacIOOS buoy near Aunu`u show heights
peaking around 7 feet with periods around 8 seconds. These heights
are indicative of wind-driven seas as moderate east winds remains
across the area. Model data continues to show a subsiding trend
through the new week with seas lingering around 5 to 7 feet for
tonight through at least Sunday night. By Monday morning, seas
will further subside to more favorable conditions as winds also
decrease to a more light to gentle northeast wind flow. However,
as thunderstorms embedded within the aforementioned trough moves
over the area from time to time, expect gusty winds and slightly
elevated seas nearby. Thus, there are no other significant swells
expected for this forecast period.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Flood Watch

&&

$$

JTAllen