025
FXZS60 NSTU 280048
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
148 PM SST Sat Dec 27 2025

.Short term...

Cloudy skies with consistent showers remained over the territory
throughout the morning and early afternoon, which was heavy at
times. This weather pattern is to continue throughout the rest of
the weekend for Tutuila, Aunu`u, Manu`a and Rose as a trough
continues to be over the American Samoa islands. There is a risk
of showers becoming heavy at times through Sunday. Therefore, a
Flood Watch remains in effect. Also, be aware of potential
thunderstorms throughout this time.

Throughout Sunday and into early this week, we will be keeping a
close eye on potential tropical development. However, if tropical
development occurs, impacts such as tropical storm force winds are
to be well to the north and east of the American Samoa islands.
Our main weather topic for this weekend is rainfall and the
potential for flash flooding. Impacts from flash flooding include
the possibility of landslides, strong runoff from nearby streams,
flooding roadways, pooling of flood waters in low-lying areas, low
visibility from heavy rainfall, and the potential of gusty winds
from nearby showers and thunderstorms.

.Long term...

For the beginning to mid-week, rainfall becomes below average.
The trough, along with the potential tropical low, is to bring
drier air in from the south over American Samoa and a ridge of
high pressure enters the region. This will reduce the chance of
showers to isolated to scattered (20 to 30% chance). Southerly
winds may reaching up to 15 mph, but could reach up to 20 mph near
Rose. For Tuesday and Wednesday, winds are to become variable as
the trough moves further away from the region.

For late in the week, we will monitor a trough that is to develop
near the Fiji region. For now, the trough is anticipated to remain
away from the region and below average rainfall is to continue
throughout the rest of the week.

&&

.Marine...

The latest data from the PacIOOS buoy located to the east of
Aunu`u shows seas around 6.5 feet and the King-Poloa buoy shows
seas building to 6 feet throughout the morning hours. Even though
sustained winds are gentle in many regions throughout the American
Samoa coastal waters, wind gusts have occurred to locally build
seas. However, the trough over the area is anticipated to remain
over the region through the weekend. Also, by late Sunday and
into early next week the area to the north and east of Rose is in
region where there is a chance for tropical development. Winds
well to the north of Tutuila, Aunu`u and Rose are to be a moderate
westerly breeze, most other regions are to be a moderate
southerly breeze on late Sunday and Monday with the exception of
near the potential tropical development region.

Therefore, we expect seas to build on overnight tonight through
the beginning of the week to around 6 to 8 feet, but locally
higher to the north and east of the islands.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

A Flood Watch remains in effect.

&&

$$

LaPlante