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FXZS60 NSTU 110056

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
156 PM SST Fri Jul 10 2020

Current visible satellite loop shows a line of convective clouds
slowly edging southwest of the territory. This line, which was more
active in the morning, has slowly diminished overtime. A dry
airmass northeast of the Samoa Island chain including a diurnal
effect have mitigated convection from this feature. Upper air
sounding 00Z/11 shows an extremely dry and stable profile, along
with some capping; this indicates stable conditions in the area.
Hence, isolated showers will remain through tonight becoming
scattered overnight as we anticipate showers embedded within the
tradewind flow. Expect breezy conditions to return Saturday night
as a strong high near New Zealand moves east.

Model trends show winds peaking Monday before decreasing Tuesday
as a trough to the north moves over the islands. This pattern is
forecast to bring an uptick in showers by Tuesday night and keep
moisture in the area through the rest of the forecast period.

Latest observations from the Aunu`u PacIOOS buoy show seas
reaching small craft advisory levels of 8 feet due to a large
southeasterly swell. Although model data suggests seas will
slightly diminish through Sunday, will continue the advisory over
the weekend as breezy conditions are anticipated. Seas will peak
Monday as southeasterly winds reach its maximum of 30 knots.
Expect breezy trades and rough seas to remain through Tuesday.