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American Samoa's Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2022-2023

NWS - WSO Pago Pago Office Predicts a normal to below normal Tropical Cyclone (TC) Season for 2022-23 for American Samoa Read More >

FXZS60 NSTU 280114

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
214 PM SST Sun Nov 27 2022

Current satellite trends depict a more stable pattern than early
this morning as a line of convective clouds (associated with a
trough), just north, gradually diminished during its southeast
migration. This is due to sunlight mixing down dry air in the mid-
levels. Latest model data shows the trough moving over the
Islands early Monday morning. The potential for flash flooding is
moderate for this time as radiational cooling overnight may
enhance the feature once again. Expect numerous showers becoming
widespread overnight and remaining through Tuesday. In addition,
thunderstorms are likely for this duration as Total Total values
indicate thunderstorm development is likely.

By Tuesday night through the end of the week, a ridge of high
pressure will build in the region. This pattern will weaken the
trough and limit moisture in the area. Fair weather is
anticipated for the rest of the forecast period, with afternoon
showers amid light and variable winds.

Wave Watch III model data show consistent projections of seas
remaining below advisory levels through the weekend. However,
possible thunderstorm development mentioned above will likely
enhance seas for a short while. Hence, to be proactive, a small
craft advisory is in effect through at least Tuesday. Thereafter,
several sets of large northerly swells are forecast to move
through coastal waters Wednesday until Saturday. Will continue to
monitor if these conditions will keep wave heights in advisory


Small Craft Advisory