Synoptic discussion for American Samoa.

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751
FXZS60 NSTU 070105
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
205 PM SST Fri Nov 6 2026

.DISCUSSION...
Upper air observations (RAOB) from this afternoon (07/00Z) show a
conditionally stable atmosphere, with a fair mix of dry and
moist layers from surface to the upper levels. These conditions
are also shown on the latest model solutions, satellite imageries
and hourly observations throughout the day. Model data continue to
show a strong high pressure system to the south-southeast
producing a moderate to fresh (~17 to 23 mph) east-southeast
breeze with higher gusts from time to time. Embedded within the
wind flow are showers in the form of passing that may be heavy at
times and brief. Therefore, the threat of flash flooding and high
winds remain low for the short term forecast period (3 days out).

Long term model projections keeps the high pressure system
anchored to the south-southeast of the region, as it continues to
hold an active trough to the north of the area. Thus, expect
scattered to numerous showers with moderate to fresh east-
southeast winds nearing a strong breeze (~29 mph) by Tuesday night
into the rest of the forecast period (7 days out).

At this point, there is a low probability of any tropical system
to develop within the area of responsibility (300 nm from Tutuila)
for the next 7 days.

&&

.Marine...
The latest observations from the PacIOOS buoy near Aunu`u show
elevated wave heights peaking around 10 feet with peak periods
less than 10 seconds, indicating wind-driven waves versus swells.
These conditions are supported by the latest projections shown on
the Wave Watch III and EC model runs. Furthermore, numerical
model data shows the aforementioned high pressue system to the
south-southeast, maintaining fresh (~20 knots) east-southeast
winds throughout this forecast period (5 days out). These winds
will likely keep seas rough and choppy for this period.
Additionally, model data also show seas building to around 12 feet
by the end of this forecast period. However, data from the PacIOOS
King-Poloa buoy show heights much lower than the Aunu`u buoy,
which also reflects the more smooth and favorable conditions on
the southwest-northwest facing shores of the islands. Thus, the
threat of elevated seas, hazardous surfs, and dangerous rip
currents remain for the south to east facing shores of all
islands throughout this forecast period.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory
Small Craft Advisory

&&

$$

JTAllen