American Samoa's Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2025-26

Below Normal to Near Normal Tropical Cyclone (TC) Activity anticipated for American Samoa in the 2025-26 TC Season Read More >

327
FXZS60 NSTU 010057
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
157 PM SST Thu Apr 30 2026

.Short term...

Satellite imagery has shown an unorganized trough over the
vicinity of American Samoa. Showers were recorded throughout the
majority of Tutuila, Aunu`u, and Manu`a this morning, but clouds
decreased late in the morning and in the early afternoon hours.

This trough is forecast to remain disorganized through the rest of
the week and into the first half of the weekend. Scattered to
numerous showers are forecast, but these showers are not expected
to be strong enough to cause flash flooding. Easterly winds around
10 mph are to decrease for the rest of the week to become light
and variable by midday Friday through early Sunday. Otherwise,
temperatures are expected to be above normal throughout this time.

.Long term...

A trough has developed near the Fiji region and extends
southeastward to the Tonga islands. A ridge of high pressure
remains to the south. This trough is anticipated to remain to the
south of American Samoa through at least Saturday. However, we
will monitor the strength of the ridge for the second half of the
weekend and early next week. If the ridge strengthens and moves
further northward, this strong trough will move closer to American
Samoa. At this time, it appears that the heavier rainfall will be
to the south of the islands but will continue to monitor this
weather pattern and may need to issue a Flood Watch, if warranted.

Otherwise, winds are forecast to only increase to around 10 mph
with higher gusts near showers. More clouds than sun are
anticipated with temperatures back to average for this time of the
year.

&&

.Marine...

Data from the PacIOOS buoys to the west of Tutuila and to the east
of Aunu`u shows seas are below advisory levels. Weak southerly
swell is continuing to move through the American Samoa coastal
waters and is forecast to weaken through Saturday. With gentle
easterlies also forecast throughout this time, ideal sea
conditions are expected. For Sunday through early next week,
another round of swell is to move through the American Samoa
waters along with a trough moving closer to the area. Even though
winds are anticipated to be lower than 20 knots, with the exception
of gusts near potential showers, seas will likely reach around or
over 8 feet during this time.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE

&&

$$

LaPlante