National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Heavy Rainfall and Flash Flood Threats From the Lower Mississippi Valley Into the Mid-Atlantic; Elevated to Critical Fire Concerns Out West

Heavy rainfall will continue through midweek from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. Elevated to critical fire weather threat continues across the Central Great Basin and the Central Rockies; and there is an elevated fire risk from southwestern Oregon to northern California. Record river flooding will continue in portions of the Midwest and the Carolinas. Read More >


000
FXZS60 NSTU 240110
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
210 PM SST Sun Sep 23 2018

.Short term...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A mid-level ridge will remain
across the area through at least midweek. RAOB from this
afternoon (24/00Z) shows most of the moisture concentrated at the
surface. Hence, scattered showers are more evident across the
Samoan Islands tonight through Tuesday. Latest model solutions are
however showing numerous showers at least Tuesday night through
the end of the short term period. Therefore, expect scattered to
numerous showers and gentle to moderate easterlies to prevail
through the midweek.

.Long term...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A trough to the west and southwest will
move south of the area late Wednesday. Additionally, a broad high
pressure system further south will provide moderate to fresh
trades through the new week. With trades kicking in, expect
embedded showers to move through the area. Scattered to numerous
showers with fresh trades will prevail for the rest of the long
term period.

&&

.Marine...WWIII models are showing combined seas of 5 to 7 feet
tonight through the rest of the period. PacIOOs Aunu`u Wave Buoy
is currently reporting seas above 7 feet with shorter wave period.
However, since trades will be picking up midweek through the end
of the week, expect an uptick in sea heights. In the meantime,
will cancel the advisory for small crafts and continue to monitor
conditions throughout the period.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.A Small Craft Advisory is now cancelled.

&&

$$

JT