208
FXZS60 NSTU 301742
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
642 AM SST Thu Apr 30 2026

.Update...

Satellite imagery this morning shows a trough has moved over
American Samoa from the northeast. Showers are not anticipated to
be heavy enough to cause flash flooding, but the likelihood of
showers this morning are numerous and is forecast to slowly
decrease throughout the day today. Otherwise, no major changes
have been made from yesterday`s forecast.

.Previous discussion... /issued 234 PM SST Wed Apr 29 2026/

Short term...

More sun than clouds remained over the American Samoa islands this
morning and early this afternoon. Satellite imagery shows a weak
trough to the north and east with decreasing east/southeasterly
winds will a ridge remains to the south and west of the islands.

A slow moving weather pattern is anticipated for the rest of the
week and this weekend. A high pressure system to the southwest is
to remain centered near the New Zealand region. The ridge is not
anticipated to reach as far north of American Samoa throughout
this time. Therefore, weak east/southeasterlies remain. The trough
is anticipated to remain weak as it moves far enough south to
reach the islands. If showers occur from tonight through early
Friday, however, it would be in the passing form.
East/southeasterly are to become easterly up to 10 mph for
Thursday and early Friday.

Long term...

The aforementioned trough is to remain over the islands by late
Friday and remain through early next week. However, a low is
anticipated to develop well to the southeast of American Samoa
late this weekend and into early next week. Even though this low
will not directly impact American Samoa, it may bring additional
moisture from the north and west of the territory over the
islands. This would cause the trough to strengthen and the risk of
showers to increase. If rainfall occurs, it may be heavy enough
to produce ponding on roadways but it is not anticipated to be
heavy enough to cause flash flooding. However, we will monitor
the track and strength of the trough throughout this week as the
weather pattern develops to see if conditions would warrant a
Flood Watch. Otherwise, more clouds than sun are forecast during
the day and temperatures are to remain around average.

We are approaching the last day of hurricane season for American
Samoa. We are not anticipating any development near American Samoa
for the rest of the season.

Marine...

East/southeasterly winds continued to decrease this morning and
early afternoon as it became a gentle breeze. Therefore, wind
driven seas have eased with only a weak southerly swell moving
through the American Samoa coastal waters. Seas around 5 to 6 feet
are anticipated through the weekend. The easterly breeze
continues to slowly decrease to become light and variable on
Friday and Saturday. Conditions are forecast to be below the Small
Craft and High Surf Advisory levels through the weekend.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE

&&

$$

LaPlante