Coastal Threats for the East and Gulf; Record Warmth for the Central U.S.

Persistent onshore flow across the Southeast and portions of the mid-Atlantic will keep the risk of rip currents through the weekend. Rainfall could be locally heavy across Florida, especially along the eastern shoreline. Meanwhile, record warmth for portions of the Plains and Midwest with elevated fire concerns. For the west, a trough will keep the pattern unsettled with wet conditions. Read More >

599
FXZS60 NSTU 040042
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
142 PM SST Fri Oct 3 2025

.DISCUSSION...
The latest satellite imageries show the trough axis positioned
over the islands as passing showers move across the territory
throughout the day. Gentle to moderate easterlies with embedded
showers will continue for tonight through at least Sunday night.
Upper air observations (RAOB) from this afternoon (04/00Z)
supports these conditionally stable atmospheric criteria. Even
more supportive of these conditions is a mid-level high pressure
system anchoring over the area. As shown in the last couple of
RAOBs including this afternoon, a dry mid to upper level
atmospheric profile indicates cloud suppression, keeping moisture
contents concentrated at the surface level. This phenomena will
remain through at least early Monday.

By Monday afternoon, model data is showing another high pressure
system to the southwest migrating east and pushing a boundary
layer eastward. This boundary layer is expected to keep moisture
over the area, also increasing the potential for showers. As this
high pressure system migrates east, winds will increase to a fresh
breeze as it turns southeast.

Therefore, expect scattered to numerous showers with a gentle to
fresh easterly breeze before turning southeast on Tuesday. Showers
will likely be heavy at times with possible thunderstorms through
at least Sunday night. There is no threat of flash flooding and
strong winds expected for this forecast period.

&&

.Marine...
No significant swell is expected for this forecast period. The
latest observations from the PacIOOS buoys show heights remaining
below advisory thresholds for the last 12 to 16 hours. These
observations indicate easterlies easing off as the aforementioned
trough still lingers over the islands. Easterlies have also been
gentle in the morning hours of the day and are slowly increasing
to a moderate breeze this afternoon. Although winds will slightly
increase tonight, seas are to remain at favorable conditions
throughout the forecast period. By the end of the forecast period,
seas will slightly elevate. Thus, the advisory for small crafts
will remain in effect through at least Saturday night as winds
will likely peak at a fresh east breeze for this time frame.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory

&&

$$

JTAllen