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TC Graphics (Track and Error Cone, Wind Speed Probabilities, Time of Arrival)

Tropical Cyclone (TC) graphics available following updated bulletins issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) for cyclones within our AOR (Area of Responsibility) - extends out 300 nautical miles from Tutuila, American Samoa. Read More >


000
FXZS60 NSTU 010043
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
143 PM SST Thu Feb 29 2024

.DISCUSSION...
The latest satellite imageries continues to show open cumuli
clouds streaming across the territory from the east. This feature
is associated with a high pressure system centered southeast of
the area. Also, the migration of these clouds has produced brief
passing showers throughout the day. This scenario is likely to
remain across the territory through the new week. Upper air
observations (RAOB) from this afternoon (01/00Z) shows a stable
atmospheric profile, further supporting the fair weather
conditions over the islands. Once the aforementioned high pressure
system exits the region by tonight, another high pressure system
from the west-southwest will move south of the area and continue
to maintain the easterly flow. This high pressure system will
increase the easterlies to fresh breeze by Friday into the new
week.

Model solutions shows the latter high pressure system remaining in
the region through the end of the forecast period. However, as it
continues to migrate east, easterlies will gradually decrease to a
gentle and moderate breeze by Sunday night through the rest of the
week. Therefore, expect scattered to numerous showers with an
easterly flow for this forecast period.

There are no tropical developments anticipated for American Samoa
in the next 7 days.

&&

.Marine...
Seas reported by the JASON satellite swaths in the area are
between 4 to 6 feet high. These heights are expected to linger in
the area tonight through early Friday, then build to 5 to 7 feet
for the rest of the forecast period. Although seas will remain
below advisory thresholds, moderate to fresh easterlies will
move across the territory by Friday, meeting the advisory criteria
for small crafts. The fresh breeze will likely create wind-driven
waves and white caps across the American Samoa coastal waters on
Friday through at least Sunday. This will warrant an advisory for
small crafts for the time frame. Easterly winds will decrease to
moderate breeze by Sunday night through the remainder of the week.
No other significant swell is expected for this forecast period.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

JTAllen